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1.
Developing countries situated mostly in latitudes that are projected for the highest climate change impact in the twenty-first century will also have a predictable increase in demand on energy sources. India presents us with a unique opportunity to study this phenomenon in a large developing country. This study finds that climate adaptation policies of India should consider the significance of air conditioners (A/Cs) in mitigation of human vulnerability due to unpredictable weather events such as heat waves. However, the energy demand due to air conditioning usage alone will be in the range of an extra ~750,000 GWh to ~1,350,000 GWh with a 3.7 °C increase in surface temperatures under different population scenarios and increasing incomes by the year 2100. We project that residential A/C usage by 2100 will result in CO2 emissions of 592 Tg to 1064 Tg. This is significant given that India's total contribution to global CO2 emissions in 2009 was measured at 1670 Tg and country's residential and commercial electricity consumption in 2007 was estimated at 145,000 GWh.  相似文献   

2.
Slurries are a significant source of CH4, NH3 and N2O emissions to the atmosphere. The research project aimed at quantifying CH4, NH3 and N2O emissions from liquid manure stores and after manure application under field conditions. The influence of the manure treatment options “no treatment”, “slurry separation”, “anaerobic digestion”, “slurry aeration” and “straw cover” on the emission level was investigated. Approximately 10 m3 of differently treated slurry were stored in pilot scale slurry tanks. Emissions were followed for c. 80 days. After the storage period, slurries were applied to permanent grassland. Greenhouse gas emissions from slurry were mainly caused by methane emissions during storage and by nitrous oxide emissions after field application of manures. Mitigation of GHG emissions can be achieved by a reduction in slurry dry matter and easily degradable organic matter content. Ammonia emissions mainly occurred after field application. Untreated slurry emitted 226.8 g NH3 m−3 and 92.4 kg CO2 eq. m−3 (storage and field application). Slurry separation (liquid fraction and composting of the solid fraction) resulted in NH3 losses of 402.9 g m−3 and GHG losses of 58.5 kg CO2 eq. m−3. Anaerobic digestion was a very effective means to reduce GHG emissions. 37.9 kg CO2 eq. m−3 were lost. NH3 emissions were similar to those from untreated slurry. Covering the slurry store with a layer of chopped straw instead of a wooden cover increased NH3 emissions to 320.4 g m−3 and GHG emissions to 119.7 kg CO2 eq. m−3. Slurry aeration nearly doubled NH3 emissions compared to untreated slurry. GHG emissions were reduced to 53.3 kg CO2 eq. m−3.  相似文献   

3.
Estimates of regional greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural systems are needed to evaluate possible mitigation strategies with respect to environmental effectiveness and economic feasibility. Therefore, in this study, we used the GIS-coupled economic-ecosystem model EFEM–DNDC to assess disaggregated regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from typical livestock and crop production systems in the federal state of Baden-Württemberg, Southwest Germany. EFEM is an economic farm production model based on linear programming of typical agricultural production systems and simulates all relevant farm management processes and GHG emissions. DNDC is a process-oriented ecosystem model that describes the complete biogeochemical C and N cycle of agricultural soils, including all trace gases.Direct soil emissions were mainly related to N2O, whereas CH4 uptake had marginal influence (net soil C uptake or release was not considered). The simulated N2O emissions appeared to be highly correlated to N fertilizer application (R2 = 0.79). The emission factor for Baden-Württemberg was 0.97% of the applied N after excluding background emissions.Analysis of the production systems showed that total GHG emissions from crop based production systems were considerably lower (2.6–3.4 Mg CO2 eq ha−1) than from livestock based systems (5.2–5.3 Mg CO2 eq ha−1). Average production system GHG emissions for Baden-Württemberg were 4.5 Mg CO2 eq ha−1. Of the total 38% were derived from N2O (direct and indirect soil emissions, and manure storage), 40% were from CH4 (enteric fermentation and manure storage), and 22% were from CO2 (mainly fertilizer production, gasoline, heating, and additional feed). The stocking rate was highly correlated (R2 = 0.85) to the total production system GHG emissions and appears to be a useful indicator of regional emission levels.  相似文献   

4.
Carbon footprint (CFP) of sugar produced from sugarcane in eastern Thailand was estimated from greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CH4, and N2O) during the sugarcane cultivation and milling process. The use of fossil fuels, chemical and organic fertilizer and sugarcane biomass data during cultivation were collected from field surveys, questionnaires and interviews. Sugar mill emissions, fossil fuel utilization and greenhouse gas emission from wastewater treatments were included. The results show that sugar production has a carbon footprint of 0.55 kg CO2e kg?1 sugar. This carbon footprint was a sum of 0.49 kg CO2e kg?1 sugar from sugarcane cultivation and 0.06 kg CO2e kg?1 sugar from the milling process. For the cultivation part, most of the GHGs emissions were from fertilizer, fossil fuel use and biomass burning. The CFP in eastern Thailand is sensitive to the type of data selected for calculation and of variations of farm inputs during sugarcane cultivation. There was no significant difference of CFP among farm sizes, although small farms tended to give a relatively higher CFP than that of medium and large farms.  相似文献   

5.
Using the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) for biogas production might contribute to greenhouse gas mitigation, but emissions linked with biogas production can reduce these beneficial effects. Therefore the emissions of NH3, CH4 and N2O and costs caused by treating OFMSW by co-fermentation with slurry were calculated in detail from literature data, and strategies for reducing emissions were evaluated. Emission factors were calculated for single gases during storage and after application. The sensitivity of the calculations concerning the organic dry matter content of OFMSW, retention time and CH4-yield was analyzed. The anaerobic co-fermentation of OFMSW increased biogas yields and contributed to the reduction of CO2 emissions with 32 to 152 kg CO2 t−1 organic waste depending on application and storage techniques used for the fermentation residues. Considering a payment of 0.1 €/kWh for the electricity produced, the costs for utilization of OFMSW in slurry based biogas plants were calculated to range between 34 and 38  t−1. Measures for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions by covering the fermentation residue stores proved to be more cost effective with 3–31  t−1 CO2 compared to immediate harrowing or injecting the residues during field application.  相似文献   

6.
The cement industry is one of the largest carbon dioxide (CO2) emitters in the Thai industry. The cement sector accounted for about 20,633 kilotonnes (ktonnes) CO2 emissions in 2005 in Thailand. A bottom-up CO2 abatement cost curve (ACC) is constructed in this study for the Thai cement industry to determine the potentials and costs of CO2 abatement, taking into account the costs and CO2 abatement of different technologies. The period of 2010–2025 is chosen as the scenario period. We analyzed 41 CO2 abatement technologies and measures for the cement industry. Using the bottom-up CO2 ACC model, the cost-effective annual CO2 abatement potential for the Thai cement industry during the 15 year scenario period (2010–2025) is equal to 3095 ktonnes CO2/year. This is about 15% of the Thai cement industry’s total CO2 emissions in 2005. The total technical annual CO2 abatement potential is 3143 ktonnes CO2/year, which is about 15.2% of the Thai cement industry’s total CO2 emissions in 2005. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis for the discount rate parameter.  相似文献   

7.
A streamlined hybrid life cycle assessment is conducted to compare the global warming potential (GWP) and primary energy use of conventional and organic wheat production and delivery in the US. Impact differences from agricultural inputs, grain farming, and transport processes are estimated. The GWP of a 1 kg loaf of organic wheat bread is about 30 g CO2-eq less than the conventional loaf. When organic wheat is shipped 420 km farther to market, organic and conventional wheat systems have similar impacts. These results can change dramatically depending on soil carbon accumulation and nitrous oxide emissions from the two systems. Key parameters and their variability are discussed to provide producers, wholesale and retail consumers, and policymakers metrics to align their decisions with low-carbon objectives.  相似文献   

8.
Biogas treatment of animal manures is an upcoming technology because it is a way of producing renewable energy (biogas). However, little is known about effects of this management strategy on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during fermentation, storage, and field application of the substrates compared to untreated slurries. In this study, we compared cattle slurry and cattle slurry with potato starch as additive during the process of fermentation, during storage and after field application. The addition of potato starch strongly enhanced CH4 production from 4230 l CH4 m−3 to 8625 l CH4 m−3 in the fermenter at a hydraulic retention time (HRT) of 29 days. Extending the HRT to 56 days had only a small effect on the CH4 production. Methane emissions from stored slurry depended on storage temperature and were highest from unfermented slurry followed by the slurry/starch mixture. Gas emissions from untreated and fermented slurry during storage were further analyzed in a pilot-scale experiment with different levels of covering such as straw cover, a wooden lid and no cover. Emissions of greenhouse gases (CH4, N2O, NH3) were in the range of 14.3–17.1 kg CO2 eq. m−3 during winter (100 day storage period) and 40.5–90.5 kg CO2 eq. m−3 during summer (140 day storage period). A straw cover reduced NH3 losses, but not overall GHG emissions, whereas a solid cover reduced CH4 and NH3 emissions. After field application, there were no significant differences between slurry types in GHG emissions (4.15–8.12 kg CO2 eq. m−3 a−1). GHG emissions from slurry stores were more important than emissions after field application. Co-digestion of slurry with additives such as starch has a large potential to substitute fossil energy by biogas. On a biogas plant, slurry stores should be covered gas-tight in order to eliminate GHG emissions and collect CH4 for electricity production.  相似文献   

9.
This paper combines life-cycle analyses and economic analyses for Miscanthus and willow heat and electricity fuel-chains in Ireland. Displaced agricultural land-uses and conventional fuels were considered in fuel-chain permutations. Avoided greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ranged from 7.7 to 35.2 t CO2 eq. ha−1 a−1. Most fuel-chain permutations exhibited positive discounted financial returns, despite losses for particular entities at a farm-gate processed-biomass price of €100 t−1 dry-matter. Attributing a value of €10 t−1 CO2 eq. to avoided GHG emissions, but subtracting financial returns associated with displaced fuel supplies, resulted in discounted annual national economic benefits (DANEBs) ranging from −457 to 1887€ ha−1 a−1. Extrapolating a plausible combination of fuel-chains up to a national indicative scenario resulted in GHG emission avoidance of 3.56 Mt CO2 eq. a−1 (5.2% of national emissions), a DANEB of 167 M€, and required 4.6% of national agricultural land area. As cost-effective national GHG avoidance options, Miscanthus and willow fuel-chains are robust to variation in yields and CO2 price, and appear to represent an efficient land-use option (e.g. compared with liquid biofuel production). Policies promoting utilisation of these energy-crops could avoid unnecessary, and environmentally questionable, future purchase of carbon credits, as currently required for national Kyoto compliance.  相似文献   

10.
A methodology is presented here to assess the potential long-term contribution of non-CO2 greenhouse gases in mitigation scenarios. The analysis shows the future development of the mitigation potential of non-CO2 gases (as a function of changes in technology and implementation barriers) to represent a crucial parameter for the overall costs of mitigation scenarios. The recently developed marginal abatement cost curves for 2010 in the EMF-21 project are taken as the starting point. First-order estimates were made of the future maximum attainable reduction potentials and costs on the basis of available literature. The set of MAC curves developed was used in a multi-gas analysis for stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations at 550 ppm CO2-equivalent. Including future development for the non-CO2 mitigation options not only increases their mitigation potential but also lowers the overall costs compared to situations where no development is assumed (3–21% lower in 2050 and 4–26% lower in 2100 in our analysis). Along with the fluorinated gases, energy-related methane emissions make up the largest share in total non-CO2 abatement potential as they represent a large emission source and have a large potential for reduction (towards 90% compared to baseline in 2100). Most methane and nitrous oxide emissions from landuse-related sources are less simple to abate, with an estimated abatement potential in 2100 of around 60% and 40%, respectively.  相似文献   

11.
Agriculture is an important contributor to global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), in particular for methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Emissions from farms with a stock of ruminant animals are particularly high due to CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation and manure handling, and due to the intensive nitrogen (N) cycle on such farms leading to direct and indirect N2O emissions. The whole-farm model, FarmGHG, was designed to quantify the flows of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) on dairy farms. The aim of the model was to allow quantification of effects of management practices and mitigation options on GHG emissions. The model provides assessments of emissions from both the production unit and the pre-chains. However, the model does not quantify changes in soil C storage.Model dairy farms were defined within five European agro-ecological zones for both organic and conventional systems. The model farms were all defined to have the same utilised agricultural area (50 ha). Cows on conventional and organic model farms were defined to achieve the same milk yield, so the basic difference between conventional and organic farms was expressed in the livestock density. The organic farms were defined to be 100% self-sufficient with respect to feed. The conventional farms, on the other hand, import concentrates as supplementary feed and their livestock density was defined to be 75% higher than the organic farm density. Regional differences between farms were expressed in the milk yield, the crop rotations, and the cow housing system and manure management method most common to each region.The model results showed that the emissions at farm level could be related to either the farm N surplus or the farm N efficiency. The farm N surplus appeared to be a good proxy for GHG emissions per unit of land area. The GHG emissions increased from 3.0 Mg CO2-eq ha−1 year−1 at a N surplus of 56 kg N ha−1 year−1 to 15.9 Mg CO2-eq ha−1 year−1 at a N surplus of 319 kg N ha−1 year−1. The farm N surplus can relatively easily be determined on practical farms from the farm records of imports and exports and the composition of the crop rotation. The GHG emissions per product unit (milk or metabolic energy) were quite closely related to the farm N efficiency, and a doubling of the N efficiency from 12.5 to 25% reduced the emissions per product unit by ca. 50%. The farm N efficiency may therefore be used as a proxy for comparing the efficiencies of farms with respect to supplying products with a low GHG emission.  相似文献   

12.
Biochar addition to agricultural soil has been suggested to mitigate climate change through increased biogenic carbon storage and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. We measured the fluxes of N2O, CO2, and CH4 after adding 9 t ha?1 biochar on an agricultural soil in Southern Finland in May 2009. We conducted these measurements twice a week for 1.5 months, between sowing and canopy closure, to capture the period of highest N2O emissions, where the potential for mitigation would also be highest. Biochar addition increased CH4 uptake (96% increase in the average cumulative CH4 uptake), but no statistically significant differences were observed in the CO2 and N2O emissions between the biochar amended and control plots. Added biochar increased soil water holding capacity by 11%. Further studies are needed to clarify whether this may help balance fluctuations in water availability to plants in the future climate with more frequent drought periods.  相似文献   

13.
Plant biomass is known to increase in response to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (pCO2); however, no experiments have quantified the trajectory of crop fertilization across the full range of pCO2 levels estimated for the next 300 years. Here we quantify the above- and below-ground biomass response of Raphanus sativus (common radish) across eight pCO2 levels ranging from 348 to 1791 ppmv. We observed a large net biomass increase of 58% above ground and 279% below ground. A large part of the net increase (38% of the above-ground and 53% of the below-ground) represented biomass fertilization at the high levels of pCO2 (700–1791 ppmv) predicted if fossil fuel emissions continue unabated. The trajectory of below-ground fertilization in R. sativus greatly exceeded a trajectory based on extrapolation of previous experiments for plants grown at pCO2 < 800 ppmv. Based on the experimental parameters used to grow these plants, we hypothesize that these experiments represent the maximum CO2 fertilization that can be achieved for this plant growing under low light levels. If the below-ground biomass enhancement that we have quantified for R. sativus represents a generalized root-crop response that can be extrapolated to agricultural systems, below-ground fertilization under very high pCO2 levels could dramatically augment crop production in some of the poorest nations of the world, provided that water resources are sufficient and sustainable.  相似文献   

14.
Improving eco-efficiency in the steel industry: The ArcelorMittal Gent case   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
In addition to CO2 released by the combustion of fossil fuel and leading to climate change, large steelworks emit pollutants that have other environmental impacts. ArcelorMittal Gent, an integrated steelwork producing ca. 5 × 106 tons of steel per year, not only decreased its specific energy consumption and CO2-emissions, but also reduced the environmental impact of its other emissions. This is illustrated by means of the evolution of 6 partial eco-efficiency indicators for the impact categories acidification, photo-oxidant formation, human toxicity, freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity, eutrophication and water use. The partial eco-efficiency indicators are eco-intensities, defined as the environmental impact in the respective impact category, divided by the amount of liquid steel produced. In the period 1995 – 2005 these indicators decreased by 45, 4, 52, 9, 11 and 33% respectively, whereas the steel production increased by 17%. The net impact of discharges of wastewater is negligible for human toxicity and is negative (concentrations lower than in the canal water used) for freshwater aquatic toxicity and eutrophication. For acidification, human toxicity (only emissions to air) and water use, the decoupling between environmental impact and production was absolute; for photo-oxidant formation, freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity (only emissions to air) and eutrophication, it was relative.  相似文献   

15.
The projected increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] is expected to increase yield of agricultural C3 crops, but little is known about effects of [CO2] on lodging that can reduce yield. This study examined the interaction between [CO2] and nitrogen (N) fertilization on the lodging of rice (Oryza sativa L.) using free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) systems installed in paddy fields at Shizukuishi, Iwate, Japan (39°38′N, 140°57′E). Rice plants were grown under two levels of [CO2] (ambient = 365 μmol mol−1; elevated [CO2] = 548 μmol mol−1) and three N fertilization regimes: a single initial basal application of controlled-release urea (8 g N m−2, CRN), split fertilization with a standard amount of ammonium sulfate (9 g N m−2, MN), and ample N (15 g N m−2, HN). Lodging score (six ranks at 18° intervals, with larger scores indicating greater bending), yield, and yield components were measured at maturity. The lodging score was significantly higher under HN than under CRN and MN, but lodging was alleviated by elevated [CO2] under HN. This alleviation was associated with the shortened and thickened lower internodes, but was not associated with a change in the plant's mass moment around the culm base. A positively significant correlation between lodging score and ripening percentage indicated that ripening percentage decreased by 4.5% per one-unit increase in lodging score. These findings will be useful to develop functional algorithm that can be incorporated into mechanistic crop models to predict rice production more accurately in a changing climate and with different cultural practices.  相似文献   

16.
Organic farming methods are claimed to be more environmentally friendly than conventional methods and the EU MIDAIR project had an overall aim to compare emissions from organic dairy farming with conventional methods of milk production. Manure stores are the second largest source of methane emissions (after enteric fermentation) on European dairy farming.The aim of this project was to measure green house gas (GHG) emissions from manures in covered and uncovered slurry stores and farm yard manure (FYM) heaps. The chosen method for measuring these emissions was the tracer ratio method, using sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) as the tracer gas, the limitations of this method prevented successful measurements being made on some of the stores and a modified method was used on the covered stores. The difference in concentration of the upwind and downwind samples and interfering sources were limiting factors. FYM emission measurements were successful only when the manure was stored indoors.Methane emissions were successfully measured over a 12 month period from the uncovered slurry stores. Emission rates from the uncovered slurry stores on the conventional farm and the organic farm ranged from 14.4 to 49.6 and from 12.4 to 42.3 g C m−3 d−1, respectively, with the mean CH4 emission rates of 35 and 26 g C m−3 d−1. On both farms, nitrous oxide emissions were close to zero.Methane emissions measured from the indoor organic FYM in summer were 17.1 g C m−3 d−1 and the nitrous oxide emission was 411 mg N m−3 d−1.The covered slurry stores were in such close proximity to other GHG sources that the tracer ratio method was unsuitable and the air-injection method was adopted. The measured emissions from covered slurry stores of CH4, CO2 and NH3 were, respectively, 14.9 g C m−3 d−1, 12.9 g C m−3 d−1 and 18.6 mg NH3 m−2 d−1 of slurry in February and 12.0 g C m−3 d−1, 9.5 g C m−3 d−1 and 335 mg NH3 m−2 d−1 slurry in March. No nitrous oxide production could be measured.  相似文献   

17.
Nitrous oxide (N2O) and ammonia (NH3) emissions from surface applied high (HN) and low (LN) nitrogen pig manures were measured under field conditions. Manures were band-spread to a winter wheat crop at three growth stages—mid-tillering, stem elongation and flag leaf emergence. The N2O flux rates were measured using the static chamber technique while NH3 volatilisation was assessed using a micrometeorological mass balance technique with passive flux samplers. The N2O emissions were episodic in nature with flux rates observed ranging from 2.8 to 31.5 g N2O–N ha?1 day?1 (P < 0.001). Higher N2O emissions generally occurred after rainfall events. Highest N2O losses were observed from the HN treatment with LN manure use decreasing emissions by 18% (P < 0.03). The NH3 volatilisation rates were highest within 1 h of manure application with 95% of emissions occurring within 24 h (P < 0.001). Cumulative N loss was highest at mid-tillering as low crop canopy cover and increased wind-speeds enhanced NH3 loss (P < 0.001). Highest emissions were measured from the HN manure (P < 0.03). Total ammoniacal N loss ranged from 6 to 11%. Crop N uptake and grain yield were unaffected by application timing or manure type. Therefore, the use of LN manures decreased gaseous emissions of N2O and NH3 without any adverse effects on crop performance.  相似文献   

18.
Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agriculture are currently estimated from N inputs using emission factors, and little is known about the importance of regional or management-related differences. This paper summarizes the results of a study in which N2O emission rates were recorded on 15–26 occasions during a 12-month period in organic and conventional dairy crop rotations in five European countries (Austria, Denmark, Finland, Italy, UK). A common methodology based on static chambers was used for N2O flux measurements, and N2O data were compiled together with information about N inputs (from fertilizers, N2 fixation, atmospheric deposition and excretal returns), crop rotations and soil properties. Organic rotations received only manure as N fertilizer, while manure accounted for 0–100% of fertilizer N in conventional rotations. A linear regression model was used to examine effects of location, system and crop category on N2O emissions, while a second model examined effects of soil properties. Nitrous oxide emissions were higher from conventional than from organic crop rotations except in Austria and, according to the statistical analysis, the differences between locations and crop categories were significant. Ammonium was significantly related to N2O emissions, although this effect was dominated by observations from a grazing system. Despite the limited number of samplings, annual emissions were estimated by interpolation. Across the two systems and five locations there was a significant relationship between total N inputs and N2O emissions at the crop rotation level which indicated that annually 1.6 ± 0.2% (mean ± standard error) of total N inputs were lost as N2O, while there was a background emission of 1.4 ± 0.3 kg N2O-N ha−1 year−1. Although this measurement program emphasized system effects at the expense of high temporal resolution, the results indicate that N input is a significant determinant for N2O emissions from agricultural soils.  相似文献   

19.
Stored solid manure heaps can be a significant source of nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) emissions. The manure characteristics influence emissions and solid manure heaps can be managed to promote aerobic decomposition during storage. Increasing the carbon (C) content of the manure heap with high-C additives, such as straw, may provide the opportunity for N2O and CH4 emission reduction. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from conventionally produced farmyard manure (FYM) have been quantified, but there is little data on emissions from organically produced FYM. N2O and CH4 emissions were measured using a small-scale storage method from FYM collected from organic and conventional dairy units under a range of storage conditions with and without extra straw addition.The organic and the conventional FYM were similar in composition except for the higher C and dry matter content in the organic FYM and in the FYM with added straw. This resulted in mean total emissions of N2O and CH4 being lower from the organic (27 g N t−1) than the conventional FYM (52 g N t−1) and from the treatments with straw added (32 g N t−1) than those without (47 g N t−1). The initial C:N ratio and dry matter content of the stored FYM were the most important factors affecting N2O and CH4 emissions although the FYM temperature also affected CH4 emissions. Adding high-C additives, such as straw could be a promising strategy for reducing GHG emissions because it influences the dry matter content, C:N ratio and aeration of the manure. The small-scale FYM storage method were shown to be a reliable and an easy method to quantify emissions under a range of environmental conditions and manure manipulations and so develop effective manure management practices to reduce GHG emissions.  相似文献   

20.
In the United Kingdom, as with other European countries, land-based emissions of NOx and SO2 have fallen significantly over the last few decades. SO2 emissions fell from a peak of 3185 Gg S in 1970 to 344 Gg S in 2005 and are forecast by business-as-usual emissions scenarios to fall to 172 Gg by 2020. NOx emissions were at a maximum of 951 Gg N in 1970 and fell to 378 by 2005 with a further decrease to 243 Gg N forecast by 2020. These large changes in emissions have not been matched by emissions changes for NH3 which decreased from 315 Gg N in 1990 to 259 in 2005 and are forecast to fall to 222 by 2020. The Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange model (FRAME) has been applied to model the spatial distribution of sulphur and nitrogen deposition over the United Kingdom during a 15-year time period (1990–2005) and compared with measured deposition of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium from the national monitoring network. Wet deposition of nitrogen and sulphur was found to decrease more slowly than the emissions reductions rate. This is attributed to a number of factors including increases in emissions from international shipping and changing rates of atmospheric oxidation. The modelled time series was extended to a 50-year period from 1970 to 2020. The modelled deposition of SOx, NOy and NHx to the UK was found to fall by 87%, 52% and 25% during this period. The percentage area of sensitive habitats in the United Kingdom for which critical loads are exceeded is estimated to fall from 85% in 1970 to 37% in 2020 for acidic deposition and from 73% to 49% for nutrient nitrogen deposition. The significant reduction in land emissions of SO2 and NOx focuses further attention in controlling emissions from international shipping. Future policies to control emissions of ammonia from agriculture will be required to effect further significant reductions in nitrogen deposition.  相似文献   

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