共查询到19条相似文献,搜索用时 171 毫秒
1.
2.
在综合考虑各种社会经济影响因素的基础上,从景观格局、景观功能、景观受胁迫性等3方面构建评价指标体系,并据此开展规划实施的景观生态影响综合评价.利用计算机模型模拟各种规划替代方案的景观格局动态,并通过分析景观格局指数的变化实现对规划替代方案的比选,建立起规划环评中景观生态学方法应用的技术框架,进而应用于大连森林公园东区建设规划环境影响评价.研究结果表明,规划的实施有利于区域景观格局和功能的改善,但会导致人类对景观干扰和胁迫加重.采用以旅游经济为主导型方案(替代方案1),景观破碎化趋势明显;以生态优先主导型方案(替代方案2),景观向整合集约化趋势发展. 相似文献
3.
开展协同利用清水与再生水的城市供水系统优化研究具有重要的科学意义和广阔的应用前景.为促进城市水资源高效利用,基于多水源转换关系以及再生水生产能力和利用潜力,构建了面向多区域多部门的城市清水与再生水协同利用优化模型,并以水资源严重短缺的北京市为例进行实证研究.设置规划方案基准情景和规划替代方案情景,分别优化了清水与再生水的协同利用方案以及再生水厂群的运行方案.在规划方案基准情景下,再生水占研究区用水总量的32%,分别占农业、工业、环境用水量的60%、30%和42%.海淀区和石景山区再生水供给矛盾将较为突出.相比之下,规划替代方案情景可以获得更高的经济效益,总效益增加6. 21亿元,同时能增加再生水利用量36. 59%、减少清水用量14. 02%.规划替代方案能更加充分地利用现有设施,促进水资源循环利用.此外,还提供了在现有设施条件下,再生水利用量由政策规划值逐渐提升至最佳规模过程中再生水厂群的运行过渡方案.本文建立的研究方法具有较广泛的适用性,可用于解决其它具有再生水利用潜力地区的水资源短缺问题. 相似文献
4.
区域水质净化功能及其影响因素的研究,对深入了解区域水质净化潜力,指导因地制宜的区域总体规划方案与环境保护措施具有重要的现实意义.研究区位于杭州湾南岸,是陆海相互作用的典型区域,承载着重要的经济发展及生态环境功能.基于收集的地形和土地利用类型数据,结合基于站点的气象数据,采用生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估模型(InVEST模型)中的水质净化模型,研究杭州湾南岸氮(N)、磷(P)的负荷量、输出量和净化量的时空演变特征,探索不同发展情境下研究区域水质净化功能的差异.结果表明,时间上,N和P的输出量以及净化量在两年中存在明显差异,相比2000年,2020年研究区域N总负荷量减少276.72 t,输出量减少140.86 t,净化量减少137.86 t;P总负荷量增加93.65 t,输出量增加28.91 t,净化量增加64.74 t;空间上,N、P输出量空间分布趋势大致相同,总体呈现北高南低以及南部部分区域为高值的特征,与土地利用类型密切相关;基于不同情景的模拟分析表明,在自然发展优先情景下,研究区N、P的输出量分别为1 682.36 t和115.50 t,在经济发展优先情景下,区域N、P的输出量分别增加约83.02%和79.93%,在环境保护情景下,区域N、P的输出量分别减少约为79.96%和56.44%.因此环境保护发展优先情景,能有效地减少区域N和P的输出,提高水质净化功能.研究结果为制定区域陆海统筹的规划方案,促进研究区域内经济和生态的协同发展提供了坚实的理论基础. 相似文献
5.
6.
基于CLUE-S模型的黑河中游土地利用情景模拟研究 ——以张掖市甘州区为例 总被引:10,自引:1,他引:9
由于传统的土地利用空间统计分析问题中存在固有的空间自相关效应,进而影响到不同土地利用类型空间分布概率模拟的精度.研究在CLUE-S模型中传统的二值Logistics回归的基础之上引入了空间自相关因子形成Autologistic回归模型,并将其用于区域土地利用情景模拟.结果表明:(1)考虑了土地利用类型空间自相关性的Autologistic回归模型在模拟土地利用空间格局时能更好地反映真实土地利用分布格局.耕地、林地、草地、水域及未利用地的空间格局拟合优度ROC值分别从0.914、0.820、0.697、0.635和0.798提高到0.924、0.892、0.766、0.716和0.835;(2)基于Autologistic回归分析的建模对CLUE-S模型的模拟精度有一定的提高.Autologistic回归分析下模拟结果的Kappa指数0.935 4大于Logistic回归模拟结果0.888 0;(3)通过模拟2020年研究区5种情景方案下土地利用格局,表明在不同情景方案下的土地利用/覆被格局存在显著的空间差异:①自然增长情景方案下,耕地的增加对于保障粮食安全有重要意义,而建设用地的扩张则会促进研究区经济建设的快速发展,但林地和草地转化为未利用地会加剧土地的退化和生态环境的恶化;②在3种水资源约束情景方案下,水资源对干旱区土地利用/覆被变化的制约非常明显,提高水资源利用率是改善干旱区生态环境的一个重要措施;③土地结构优化情景方案下土地利用比较全面地考虑到了流域粮食安全、生态保护以及经济发展等需要,具有较强的合理性;④经济发展情景方案下建设用地快速扩张,大量侵占周边耕地和草地,粮食安全会受到较大的威胁;⑤生态保护情景方案下林地、草地和水域等生态保护用地面积呈显著扩张,区域生态环境质量明显改善. 相似文献
7.
8.
本文运用情景、压力分析法探讨了内蒙古自治区国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要战略环境评价水环境压力的变化.引进容量承压度的概念,分析了内蒙古自治区经过"十一五"五年的发展重点区域水环境容量承压度的变化.与2004年水环境压力相比,内蒙古十一五规划重点发展区域NH3-N压力增大,COD压力变化较小.根据压力变化提出了水环境影响减缓措施. 相似文献
9.
以辽宁营口港总体规划环境评价为例,探讨了目前中国规划环境评价中的若干热点问题,包括多方案比选与“零方案”分析、区域生态环境影响预测与分析、规划的兼容性分析、公众参与、规划环境合理性综合论证等5个方面.研究表明,规划的兼容性分析和环境合理性综合论证是规划环评的重要特征.目前中国规划环评的介入时间仍显较晚,在基础数据库建设、公众参与、环境减缓措施等方面尚显不足.规划环境指标综合分析表明,营口港总体规划的实施,可能对海岸带生态环境产生一定的不利影响,但在采取一定的环境保护措施后,其不利影响可控制在可接受的范围内. 相似文献
10.
GIS和情景分析辅助的流域水污染控制规划 总被引:14,自引:2,他引:12
总结了流域水污染控制规划中的正向算法和反向算法及其优缺点.以江西赣江流域为例, 以ARCGIS8.1为平台,建立了流域水环境功能区划、污染源、监测断面和排污口等空间数据库. 基于正向算法,利用情景分析法构造了流域水污染控制的4种情景,并在4种情景下生成了对污染源实行逐级控制的10组规划方案. 利用费用函数对各方案的污水处理投资进行估算;结合污染源预测,利用水质模型对各方案进行水质模拟,并将模拟的结果通过GIS的可视化表达来进行辅助决策. 以水质达标和投资费用作为规划方案的决策依据,通过赣江流域水污染治理的经济可承受能力的分析,优选出2套经济上能承受、水质上可接受的流域水污染控制方案.结果表明,GIS和情景分析法对于流域水污染控制规划在综合性、完整性和可持续性等方面具有良好的指导意义. 相似文献
11.
城市扩展过程对湿地影响的情景模拟研究——以河北怀来为例 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
在复杂多变的环境下,情景模拟法因其能考虑突发干扰的影响并能聚焦长期规划而表现出突出的优势。怀来是北京重要的水源地和环境保护屏障,2022年北京-张家口冬奥会的筹办将可能加快怀来的经济发展和城市扩展,进而对湿地的空间压力产生重要影响。因此,论文利用情景模拟法,结合城市扩展模型(land use scenario dynamics-urban,LUSD-urban)和湿地空间压力模型,模拟了趋势外推、城市规划和冬奥会3种情景下怀来未来城市扩展对湿地的空间压力。结果显示城市扩展导致怀来湿地空间压力增大,湿地平均压力从2000年的0.399增加到2013年的0.439,增长了10.03%。同时,湿地空间压力高于0.5的像元比例从6.73%增加到17.42%。3种情景下,2013—2030年怀来的湿地空间压力将增长0.002~0.005。冬奥会的举办将为怀来湿地带来更大的空间压力,冬奥会情景下湿地压力的热点区面积最大,为83.74 km2,是3种情景下共有热点区面积的1.44倍,新保安镇、土木镇和沙城镇的非城市用地面临的空间压力较大。因此,怀来县在未来制定城市规划时应充分考虑县内湿地生态系统,在保护湿地资源的基础上有效促进经济的发展。 相似文献
12.
东辽河流域土地利用变化对非点源污染的影响研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
采用国际前沿的SWAT模型及CLUE-S模型,基于3S技术和统计分析方法,分析了吉林省东辽河流域土地利用2000~2005年的土地利用动态变化,并借助于Logistic回归结果探讨了2000~2005年土地利用变化的驱动力空间特征;运用2000年和2005年土地利用数据,结合CLUE-S模型,模拟不同预测方案下东辽河流域未来20a土地利用变化情况.在此基础上,应用SWAT模型分别对研究区2025年2种情景下非点源污染负荷进行模拟.结果表明:不同的土地利用条件下,情景2比情景1的多年平均径流减少了12.26mm、泥沙减少了8.4×103t、溶解态氮减少了8.29kg、有机氮减少了9.49kg、总氮减少了8.4kg、溶解态磷减少了8.61kg、有机磷减少了7.18kg、总磷减少了7.18kg,情景2比情景1更能有效的控制非点源污染. 相似文献
13.
环境规划中情景分析方法及应用研究 总被引:17,自引:0,他引:17
确定环境规划中情景分析的步骤和方法主要包括:对象和焦点问题及关键决策识别,核心要素识别,驱动因子列举,驱动因子重要性和不确定性排序,核心情景驱动选择和情景勾画,情景的丰富和应用.以邛海流域的环境规划为案例进行分析,设计了2005-2015年的4种情景,并利用系统动力学模型(SD)和不确定性模糊多目标模型(IFMOP)对情景进行了定量描述和分析.结果显示,邛海的环境污染压力正在增大,污染源治理和生态工程是需要优先考虑的项目,但所需的投资巨大,对地方财政造成很大压力,需要寻求新的投资途径并加强环境管制. 相似文献
14.
Olivier Hatem Sander Kamel Frank Jacques-Eric Jacques Thomas Johanna Alkan Delphine Martin 《Environmental Science & Policy》2009,12(5):619-630
Scenario-based approaches in environmental and policy assessment studies are increasingly applied within integrated assessment and modelling frameworks. The SEAMLESS project develops such an integrated framework (SEAMLESS-IF) aiming to assess, ex-ante, impacts of alternative agro-environmental policies on the sustainability of agricultural systems. A particular challenge in this context is the consistent translation of a wide range of policy questions into scenarios that a modelling framework can assess. The present work defines a methodology for scenario-development in integrated policy assessment with specific emphasis on SEAMLESS-IF. After a general overview on scenario concepts for integrated policy assessment the adopted scenario concept and its development procedure is presented. They allow building integrated scenarios capturing the range of drivers of the assessed agricultural system in a consistent way across temporal and spatial scales. Then focus is on the particular procedures to translate the policy assessment questions into scenario parameters and to implement these parameters into SEAMLESS-IF. Two examples targeted at European and regional level combining integrated assessments of policy changes and technological innovations are considered to illustrate the SEAMLESS scenario concept. We conclude that the proposed methodology to translate policy assessment problems into scenarios effectively supports integrated assessment in SEAMLESS-IF or even in other modelling frameworks. 相似文献
15.
N. H. Ravindranath Rajiv K. Chaturvedi N. V. Joshi R. Sukumar Jayant Sathaye 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2011,16(2):211-227
Climate change is projected to impact forest ecosystems, including biodiversity and Net Primary Productivity (NPP). National
level carbon forest sector mitigation potential estimates are available for India; however impacts of projected climate change
are not included in the mitigation potential estimates. Change in NPP (in gC/m2/yr) is taken to represent the impacts of climate change. Long term impacts of climate change (2085) on the NPP of Indian
forests are available; however no such regional estimates are available for short and medium terms. The present study based
on GCM climatology scenarios projects the short, medium and long term impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems especially
on NPP using BIOME4 vegetation model. We estimate that under A2 scenario by the year 2030 the NPP changes by (−5) to 40% across
different agro-ecological zones (AEZ). By 2050 it increases by 15% to 59% and by 2070 it increases by 34 to 84%. However,
under B2 scenario it increases only by 3 to 25%, 3.5 to 34% and (−2.5) to 38% respectively, in the same time periods. The
cumulative mitigation potential is estimated to increase by up to 21% (by nearly 1 GtC) under A2 scenario between the years
2008 and 2108, whereas, under B2 the mitigation potential increases only by 14% (646 MtC). However, cumulative mitigation
potential estimates obtained from IBIS—a dynamic global vegetation model suggest much smaller gains, where mitigation potential
increases by only 6% and 5% during the period 2008 to 2108. 相似文献
16.
17.
《Journal of Cleaner Production》2008,16(13):1327-1338
The objective of this study was to compare the life-cycle environmental impacts of changed production structures for two consumer goods (high-density polyethylene (HDPE) shopping bags and beds) in Jamaica. A scenario technique was used to construct three alternative production structures for each product; each scenario reflecting an increase in local production in Jamaica which depended on an increased supply of input materials which may be sourced: (1) externally from overseas suppliers, (2) from post-consumer recycling, and (3) locally on the island of Jamaica. These three constructed scenarios were then compared to the existing supply chain or reference scenarios of the products. The results showed that for both case products the recycling scenario was most preferable for localising production, resulting in the lowest environmental impact. This was because the production of raw materials accounted for the largest effect on total environmental impact. As such, the most immediate environmental improvements were realised by lowering the production of virgin materials. 相似文献
18.
19.
Vulnerability assessment and adaptation to the impacts of sea level rise on the Kingdom of Bahrain 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
S. Al-Jeneid M. Bahnassy S. Nasr M. El Raey 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2008,13(1):87-104
This paper assesses quantitatively the impact of sea level rise (SLR) at the global and regional scale as a result of climate
change (CC) on the coastal areas of the Kingdom of Bahrain’s islands (36 Islands). The standard Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines was modified as appropriate for the situation of the study area. Geographic Information Systems
(GIS) coupled with Remote Sensing (RS) were used as the main techniques of collecting, analyzing, modeling simulating and
disseminating information to build SLR scenarios in a geographically referenced context. Also, these tools were used to assess
vulnerability and risk of the coastal area of the islands with the expectation that coastal planner and government authorities
will profit from integrating these knowledge into a broad based environmental decision making. Three SLR scenarios: low, moderate
and high were developed to examine the impacts from SLR on all islands. The low SLR scenario (Optimistic) assumes a 0.5-m
rise above current sea level, the moderate scenario (Intermediate) assumes a one meter rise, and the high scenario (Pessimistic)
assumes a 1.5 m rise in sea level. Two more SLR scenarios were assumed to perform risk analysis, a 2 and 5 meter rise above
current sea level. The simulation of SLR are quite straightforward, emphasizing on the uses of both of the data that are incorporated
from the satellite images and the created Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to estimate SLR scenarios that are adapted in the
study. These data were used to predict consequences of the possibility of the rise in sea level at different scenarios which
may alter the landuse and patterns of human communities. Results indicate that low-lying coastal areas of Bahrain islands
are at risk from the effects of any SLR resulting from CC. These islands are vulnerable under different SLR Scenarios. More
than 17% of the country total area may be inundated under 1.5 m SLR in 2100. The total area that might be lost under different
sea level scenarios will vary from more than 77 km2 if SLR reaches 0.5 m, to about 100 km2 under 1.0 m SLR and may reach 124 km2 under 1.5 m SLR scenario. The total inundated areas due to risk scenarios will reach 133 km2, if the SLR rises to 2.0 m, and it is estimated to be more than (22%) of the main island total area. Under the second scenario,
if the SLR reaches 5.0 m, the main islands will lose approximately half of its area (47%) equal to 280 km2. Hawar islands group will lose about (30%) of its total area under 2.0 m SLR, which is about 15.5 km2.A SLR adaptation policy framework (APF) and adaptation policy initiatives (APIs) are suggested for planners to build upon
for reducing the likely effects of SLR in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The framework is composed of four steps namely, acquisition
of information, planning and design, implementation and monitoring and evaluation. A general policy framework for a national
response to SLR is suggested. Additionally, a range of policy adaptation options/initiatives to sustain coastal developments
under the likely effects of SLR are recommended. 相似文献