区域滑坡地质灾害危险性评价与风险管理

<正>随着社会经济的飞速发展,人类生存空间不断向山区扩展,使得近年滑坡等山地灾害的发生越来越频繁,人们越来越认识到防范和减轻滑坡等地质灾害对社会经济发展的重要性,迫切需要寻求对滑坡地质灾害进行更为有效地控制和管理的现实途径。而区域滑坡地质灾害危险性评价是滑坡地质灾害风险评价和风险管理的基础,本文在这一领域做了有益的探讨,取得了以下主要成果:     

重大危险源定量风险评估技术研究

系统分析了危险化学品生产装置、设施或场所重大危险源辨识、分级及定量风险评估（QRA）技术,建立了危险化学品重大危险源定量风险评估技术方案;确定了“影响距离”法和“选择数”法进行设备单元选择的技术方法及设备失效模式选择原则;论述了事故后果分析、频率分析及风险计算的技术原理、方法和实施途径;解析了危险化学品重大危险源定量风险评估应实现的目标。     

Mapping knowledge investments in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina: a new approach for assessing regulatory agency responses to environmental disaster

In the aftermath of large-scale disasters, the public's dependency on federal and state agencies for information about public safety and environmental risk is acute. While formal rules and procedures are in place to guide policy decisions in environmental risk assessment of spatially concentrated hazards such as regulated waste sites or vacant city lots, standard procedures for risk assessment seem potentially less well-suited for urban-scale disaster zones where environmental hazards may be widely dispersed and widely varying. In this paper we offer a new approach for the social assessment of regulatory science in response to large-scale disaster, illustrating our methodology through a socio-spatial analysis of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) hazard assessment in New Orleans, Louisiana, following Hurricane Katrina in 2005. We find that the agency's commitment of epistemic resources or “knowledge investments” varied considerably across the flood-impacted portion of the city, concentrating in poorer and disproportionately African American neighborhoods previously known to be heavily contaminated. We address some of the study's social and policy implications, noting the multidimensionality and interactive nature of knowledge investments and the prospects for deepening and extending this approach through comparative research.     

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND HAZARDS MITIGATION IN THE UNITED STATES: DISASTERS BY DESIGN REVISITED

It has become clear that natural and related technological hazards and disasters are not problems that can be solved in isolation. The occurrence of disasters is a symptom of broader and more basic social problems. Since 1994, a team of over 100 expert academics and practitioners – including members of the private sector – have assessed, evaluated, and summarized knowledge about natural and technological hazards in the United States from the perspectives of the physical, natural, social, behavioral, and engineering sciences. The major thesis of the findings was losses from hazards and inability to comprehensively reduce losses of all types are the consequences of narrow and shortsighted development patterns, cultural premises, and attitudes toward the natural environment, science, and technology. To address these broad and basic problems, the study included proposals for ways in which people and the institutions of the United States can take responsibility for disaster losses, reduce future hazard losses, and link hazard mitigation to sustainable development.     

危险废物填埋场地下水污染风险评价中指标权重计算方法优化比选

为了探究适用于危险废物填埋场地下水污染风险评价的指标权重计算方法,选用层次分析法、熵权法、层次分析-熵权法进行计算,并通过我国37家危险废物填埋场地下水污染风险评价结果与地下水中苯浓度的拟合验证对权重计算方法进行分析比选.结果表明:①3组权重计算结果中,含水层渗透系数和包气带渗透系数均为最重要的指标,危险废物填埋场所处地层介质类型是影响地下水污染风险最显著的因素.在建设危险废物填埋场时,选址需优先关注含水层及包气带介质类型,必要时应采取更高性能的防渗技术手段;②3组场地风险指数（R）和污染指数（C）线性拟合R2值排序为层次分析-熵权法（R2=0.84）>层次分析法（R2=0.75）>熵权法（R2=0.51）,因此采用层次分析-熵权法得出的危险废物填埋场地下水污染风险评价结果与实际污染状况匹配度更高,构建的风险评价方法更能准确预测地下水污染风险;③当各指标权重由大到小依次加和至总权重为0.96时,层次分析-熵权法可包含12项指标,且权重分配更为均衡,不易受到单个指标缺失的影响,由此建立的综合指数计算方法更加可靠.研究显示,层次分析-熵权法是更适用于危险废物填埋场地下水污染风险评价的指标权重计算方法,构建的污染风险评价方法结果准确、易操作,在一定程度上可为危险废物填埋场地下水污染的风险评价及运行管理提供支持.      

Hedonic analysis of hazardous waste sites in the presence of other urban disamenities

Hedonic research indicates that residential property values are reduced by increased proximity to hazardous waste sites, a measure of diminished environmental quality. Standard hedonic procedures measure proximity by the linear distance between a property and a waste site of interest. A sample of properties is then used to estimate a distance-to-site coefficient that measures the effect of the hazardous waste site on surrounding property values. These estimates can help policy makers assess the external effects of hazardous waste sites and may also be useful in both prioritizing and assessing the benefits of cleanup. In an urban situation, hazardous waste sites are often located near other industrial disamenities such as railroads, storage tanks, industrial noises, and air pollution. This spatial grouping of hazards may be due to economic forces or due to policy instruments such as zoning. As a result, distance to hazardous waste site may be correlated with distances to other industrial disamenities. Standard hedonic procedures that use a distance-to-site variable may suffer from omitted variable bias when the bundled industrial disamenities are present but ignored. Our empirical analysis examines this bias by assessing hedonic regressions with and without a measure that accounts for industrial activity.     

石化企业危险化学品重大危险源风险评估

阐述了定量风险评价的个人风险和社会风险指标,并从前期准备、资料数据搜集、危险辨识、失效频率分析、失效后果分析、风险计算和风险评估等环节对某石化企业液化气一级重大危险源进行了定量风险评估。评估结果显示该重大危险源的个人风险和社会风险值基本符合安监总局40号令的要求。     

山地旅游景区雷电灾害风险评估研究

本文通过分析山地旅游景区的气象、环境、地理特征及近年来山地旅游景区雷电灾害特点,总结山地旅游景区雷电灾害损失类型,创建景区雷电灾害风险评估体系,并通过对山地旅游景区整体人员生命损失风险评估方法的具体描述介绍山地旅游景区雷电灾害风险评估的基本方法及注意要素。     

废电路板非金属材料再生木塑产品环境安全性评价

为了评价废电路板非金属材料再生产品使用过程中的环境安全性问题,本文针对非金属材料再生产品的特性,参考相关评价标准,结合目前现有的环境危害评价方法和人体健康风险评价,构建了再生产品在使用过程中环境安全性评价模型.收集A、B两种再生木塑产品进行评价试验,评估其对环境和人体健康的潜在风险和危害.结果显示在不考虑水体稀释作用情况下,两种再生木塑产品对I类地表水均存在极度或重度污染的可能,对于其他类地表水环境风险较小,应避免在源头水等区域使用;对于地下水,产品B污染指数大于1,具有一定的环境风险;但是考虑在稀释情况下（5%）,两种再生产品对于地下水的污染指数均小于1;两种再生木塑产品的非致癌风险指数分别为0.03和0.41,均小于1,对人体健康的危害作用不明显.本文可为非金属材料再生木塑产品环境安全性管理提供评价标准和参考,有利于促进废弃电器电子产品资源化和无害化技术的发展．     

废电路板非金属材料再生木塑产品环境安全性评价

为了评价废电路板非金属材料再生产品使用过程中的环境安全性问题,本文针对非金属材料再生产品的特性,参考相关评价标准,结合目前现有的环境危害评价方法和人体健康风险评价,构建了再生产品在使用过程中环境安全性评价模型.收集A、B两种再生木塑产品进行评价试验,评估其对环境和人体健康的潜在风险和危害.结果显示在不考虑水体稀释作用情况下,两种再生木塑产品对I类地表水均存在极度或重度污染的可能,对于其他类地表水环境风险较小,应避免在源头水等区域使用;对于地下水,产品B污染指数大于1,具有一定的环境风险;但是考虑在稀释情况下（5%）,两种再生产品对于地下水的污染指数均小于1;两种再生木塑产品的非致癌风险指数分别为0.03和0.41,均小于1,对人体健康的危害作用不明显.本文可为非金属材料再生木塑产品环境安全性管理提供评价标准和参考,有利于促进废弃电器电子产品资源化和无害化技术的发展．     

基于SEVESOⅢ指令对某市工业企业危险性进行评估

参考欧盟SevesoⅢ指令,结合区域风险评估的方法,对江苏省某市31家工业企业源于工业事故的潜在危险性进行评估。评估时综合考察工业企业储存(包括输入、输出)危险物质的种类及数量,以及工业企业危险的生产工艺流程,基于SevesoⅢ指令对企业的危险性进行分级。通过改进SevesoⅢ指令工业企业危险性评估方法(如用连续分类法代替阈值法等),采用工业危险性指数(ⅡH)表征工业企业的危险性,并对ⅡH进行排序。结果表明,该市工业企业的ⅡH值范围在0-1,其中低危险或无危险企业(ⅡH<0.5)24家;中度危险企业(0.5≤ⅡH<1.0)6家;重度危险企业(ⅡH=1.0)1家。通过本研究,实践并改进了工业企业危险性评估的方法,为环境风险管理提供方法支持,以预防工业事故和环境灾害的发生。     

Rethinking the role of information in chemicals policy: implications for TSCA and REACH

This article analyses the role of different kinds of information for minimizing or eliminating the risks due to the production, use, and disposal of chemical substances and contrasts it with present and planned (informational) regulation in the United States and the European Union, respectively. Some commentators who are disillusioned with regulatory approaches have argued that informational tools should supplant mandatory regulatory measures unflatteringly described as “command and control.” Critics of this reformist view are concerned with the lack of technology-innovation forcing that results from informational policies alone. We argue that informational tools can be made more technology inducing – and thus more oriented towards environmental innovations – than they are under current practices, with or without complementary regulatory mechanisms, although a combination of approaches may yield the best results.The conventional approach to chemicals policy envisions a sequential process that includes three steps of (1) producing or collecting risk-relevant information, (2) performing a risk assessment or characterization, followed by (3) risk management practices, often driven by regulation. We argue that such a sequential process is too static, or linear, and spends too many resources on searching for, or generating information about present hazards, in comparison to searching for, and generating information related to safer alternatives which include input substitution, final product reformulation, and/or process changes. These pollution prevention or cleaner technology approaches are generally acknowledged to be superior to pollution control. We argue that the production of risk information necessary for risk assessment, on the one hand, and the search for safer alternatives on the other hand, should be approached simultaneously in two parallel quests. Overcoming deficits in hazard-related information and knowledge about risk reduction alternatives must take place in a more synchronized manner than is currently being practiced. This parallel approach blurs the alleged bright line between risk assessment and risk management, but reflects more closely how regulatory agencies actually approach the regulation of chemicals.These theoretical considerations are interpreted in the context of existing and planned informational tools in the United States and the European Union, respectively. The current political debate in the European Union concerned with reforming chemicals policy and implementing the REACH (Registration, Evaluation and Authorization of Chemicals) system is focused on improving the production and assessment of risk information with regard to existing chemicals, although it also contains some interesting risk management elements. To some extent, REACH mirrors the approach taken in the United States under the Toxics Substances Control Act (TSCA) of 1976. TSCA turned out not to be effectively implemented and provides lessons that should be relevant to REACH. In this context, we discuss the opportunities and limits of existing and planned informational tools for achieving risk reduction.     

风险评价在危险废物分级管理中的应用研究

危险废物是指列入国家危险废物名录或者根据国家规定的危险废物鉴别标准和鉴别方法认定的具有危险特性的废物。由于其特有的危害特性，如不进行适当的管理，将会对人类和环境造成潜在的威胁。风险评价是通过对目标的定量与定性分析进而确定发生潜在危险可能性及后果大小的预测技术。本文首次提出了以风险评价作为手段，对风险废物管理的各个环节进行评价进而对其分级管理的思想，并提出了建议性的危险废物风险分级管理步骤，为我国危险废物的管理提供参考。     

中小学塑胶跑道中邻苯类塑化剂的含量监测与健康风险评估研究

近几年,"毒跑道"事件的持续爆发引起了社会公众的极大关注.邻苯二甲酸酯类(Phthalate Acid Esters, PAEs)塑化剂是塑胶跑道中的风险因子之一,但其含量监测与风险评估仍未见报道.本研究采集了13个地市中小学的83个塑胶跑道样本,使用气相色谱-质谱联用技术分析6种PAEs的含量,并应用美国环保署提供的PAEs评估方法评估其健康风险.结果表明,94.0%的塑胶跑道样品中检出PAEs,其中,邻苯二甲酸二(2-乙基己基)酯(DEHP)检出率最高,达91.6%.6种PAEs(DEHP、DBP、DIDP、DINP、DNOP、BBP)含量之和(∑6PAEs)为0～26665 mg·kg~(-1),中位数为1850 mg·kg~(-1).经评估,塑胶跑道中6种PAEs的非致癌风险均低于1,对人体无明显非致癌危害.儿童和成人PAEs的致癌风险分别为8.84×10~(-6)和8.17×10~(-6),表明有一定致癌风险,但在可接受范围内.6种PAEs中,DEHP对非致癌风险和致癌风险的贡献度最大,并且儿童的风险高于成人.因此,将PAEs纳入中小学塑胶跑道的风险物质,并进行严格管控具有显著的必要性.     

风险评价在危险废物分级管理中的应用研究

危险废物是指列入国家危险废物名录或者根据国家规定的危险废物鉴别标准和鉴别方法认定的具有危险特性的废物.由于其特有的危害特性,如不进行适当的管理,将会对人类和环境造成潜在的威胁.风险评价是通过对目标的定量与定性分析进而确定发生潜在危险可能性及后果大小的预测技术.本文首次提出了以风险评价作为手段,对风险废物管理的各个环节进行评价进而对其分级管理的思想,并提出了建议性的危险废物风险分级管理步骤,为我国危险废物的管理提供参考.     

Climate change and human health—what influences the adoption of adaptation programming in the United States public health system?

With growing evidence on how climate change impacts human health, public health agencies should develop adaptation programs focused on the impacts predicted to affect their jurisdictions. However, recent research indicates that public health agencies in the United States have done little to prepare the public for predicted climate change impacts, largely due in response to a lack of resources and priority. This study surveyed Environmental Health (EH) Directors across the United States to determine the extent to which individual level attitudes and beliefs influence the adoption of climate change adaptation programming in a department. The results indicate that an EH Director’s perception of the health risk posed by climate change explained 27% of the variance in the number of climate change impacts being addressed. Furthermore, the study found that environmental attitude and political views made strong, unique contributions in explaining the variance in risk perception. The results provide evidence that individual-level attitudes and beliefs, as well as organizational-level barriers influence the adoption of climate change adaptation programs in public health agencies. As a result, increasing EH Directors’ perception of risk by highlighting the likelihood and severity of localized impacts may increase the adoption of adaptation programming despite existing organizational barriers (e.g., lack of resources). Given the fact that risk perception has been shown to influence behavior across cultures, these findings are also useful for understanding the influence of individual decision makers on public health programming around the world.     

基于GIS的信息熵理论在滑坡危险性评价中的应用——以四川省青川县滑坡为例

滑坡危险性评价对滑坡的防灾减灾工作具有重要意义。基于信息熵理论建立了滑坡危险性评价模型,同时综合考虑影响滑坡演变的各种因素,在GIS下对四川省青川县滑坡的监测数据进行了分析和处理,获取了该研究区滑坡危险性区划结果,并将该区不稳定斜坡作为未来可能发生的滑坡进行验证,结果表明其评价结果基本符合实际情况。该评价模型可用于滑坡的危险性评价。     

小型废电池填埋焚烧处置的健康风险分析

对废电池采取填埋、焚烧处置所引起的健康风险进行了分析，采用3种模型，分别研究了废电池随城市固体废物一起完全填埋处置，一起完全焚烧处置，一起部分填埋处置和部分焚烧处理时，可能引起的健康风险，由分析可知，镉镍电池焚烧过程将引起不可接受的致癌风险，填埋废电池也会引起重金属非致癌风险，提出在现阶段没有单独收集分类管理的条件下，对于小型废电池应采取填埋焚烧联合处置的办法，但应避免镉镍电池的焚烧，在建立了收集体系后，应该分类进行资源化和无害化管理。     

单体滑坡灾害危险性评价方法研究

滑坡是我国山区城镇建设中危害较大的一种地质灾害,本文在综合分析国内外危险性评价方法的基础上,结合实例分析,提出了适用于单体滑坡的危险性评价。即根据蒙特卡洛法的基本原理及方法编制了滑坡的稳定性可靠度分析程序,计算不同工况下滑坡失稳的概率。同时,利用离散元软件模拟滑坡运动过程,进一步确定滑坡影响范围。危险性评价的结果可为滑...     

工业废弃场地健康风险评价

城市的发展,越来越多的工业企业都在逐步搬迁出主城区,拆迁遗留下的场地将会用作商业或居住用地,对这些拆迁场地如不加强环境管理,将会对公众健康造成危害。本文以化工企业拆迁场地为例,按照危害识别、暴露评估、毒性评估、风险表征4个步骤介绍了健康风险评价的一般方法,着重介绍了"危害识别"中对于化工企业拆迁场地"场地环境调查"方面的方法与注意事项。最后针对我国在污染场地健康风险评价方面的不足,提出了相应的建议。