Reconciling the supply of and demand for carbon cycle science in the U.S. agricultural sector

When asking the question, “How can institutions design science policies for the benefit of decision makers?” Sarewitz and Pielke [Sarewitz, D., Pielke Jr., R.A., this issue. The neglected heart of science policy: reconciling supply of and demand for science. Environ. Sci. Policy 10] posit the idea of “reconciling supply and demand of science” as a conceptual tool for assessment of science programs. We apply the concept to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) carbon cycle science program. By evaluating the information needs of decision makers, or the “demand”, along with the supply of information by the USDA, we can ascertain where matches between supply and demand exist, and where science policies might miss opportunities. We report the results of contextual mapping and of interviews with scientists at the USDA to evaluate the production and use of current agricultural global change research, which has the stated goal of providing “optimal benefit” to decision makers on all levels. We conclude that the USDA possesses formal and informal mechanisms by which scientists evaluate the needs of users, ranging from individual producers to Congress and the President. National-level demands for carbon cycle science evolve as national and international policies are explored. Current carbon cycle science is largely derived from those discussions and thus anticipates the information needs of producers. However, without firm agricultural carbon policies, such information is currently unimportant to producers.     

The opportunities and responsibility for carbon cycle science in the U.S.

Strategies to address climate change increasingly include options to manage the terrestrial and oceanic portions of the carbon cycle, whether as part of national commitments to international treaties, or as elements of entrepreneurial business plans. Carbon cycle science has much to contribute to informing these strategies, but must consider how to organize so as to best provide more “usable science.” Experience in other areas of earth systems science demonstrates that for knowledge to be more useful to decision makers and others outside the scientific community, deliberate mechanisms must be created to prioritize, conduct and disseminate research that are informed by the needs of the target audience. Carbon cycle science has not yet explored operating in this more deliberate mode. Carbon management thus presents an opportunity for some portion of carbon cycle research to become more directly relevant to societal decision-making through innovative ways of organizing research and operating programs.     

The neglected heart of science policy: reconciling supply of and demand for science

The funding of scientific research is almost always justified in terms of the potential for achieving beneficial societal outcomes. In pursuing a particular societal outcome, how can we know if one research portfolio is better than another? In this paper we conceptualize: (1) science in terms of a “supply” of knowledge and information, (2) societal outcomes in terms of a “demand” function that seeks to apply knowledge and information to achieve specific societal goals, and (3) science policy decision-making as a process aimed at “reconciling” the dynamic relationship between “supply” and “demand.” The core of our argument is that “better” science portfolios (that is, portfolios viewed as more likely to advance desired societal outcomes, however defined) would be achieved if science policy decisions reflected knowledge about the supply of science, the demand for science, and the relationship between the two. We provide a general method for pursuing such knowledge, using the specific example of climate change science to illustrate how research on science policy could be organized to support improved decisions about the organization of science itself.     

Pure science or policy involvement? Ambiguous boundary-work for Swedish carbon cycle science

In theory, the interaction between the worlds of environmental science and policy may seem straightforward. From a realm outside politics and power, scientists provide relevant knowledge about nature upon which informed policy decisions could be based. However, in reality this linear model tends to be replaced by a much more complex relationship where the distinction between facts and values, knowledge and interests is less clear cut. In this paper, I explore links between science, policy and power through an interview study conducted with Swedish carbon cycle scientists and government negotiators to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Drawing on a co-production model of science–policy interplay this paper addresses the implications of a mutually constitutive relationship between carbon cycle science and climate policy.     

广州与香港的环境经济能值分析

利用国际生态学最新发展的能值分析理论方法及各种能值指标，从资源基础、能值福利、对外贸易和环境压力四个角度对广州和香港的各种生态流进行比较研究。结果表明广州在自然资源和社会资源方面明显优于香港，具有较大的经济发展潜力。从能值理论和宏观角度分析，广州应将内地丰富的土地资源和科技力量与香港充裕的资金、信息和管理能力融合，充分发挥两地的分散生产要素和资源优势。本研究为促进广州和香港的共同繁荣和优化组合提供理论依据和科学指导。     

The contribution of the paper cycle to global warming

Worldwide, paper production is a major industry that contributes about 3 percent of Gross World Product. The paper cycle involves a broad range of natural resource and environmental impacts because fiber supply relies on trees, paper manufacturing requires fuel inputs, and paper waste disposal can contribute to emissions of the potent greenhouse gas (GHG), methane (CH₄). In some countries, the paper cycle may be seen as a net sink for GHG because of reliance on renewable wood by-products and the maintenance of forest plantations. On a worldwide basis, however, this study demonstrates that the paper cycle is a significant contributor to GHG emissions, adding emissions at least comparable in magnitude to that of Australia each year. The estimated global warming contribution of paper in landfills is estimated to be similar to that of paper manufacturing processes, on a heating-equivalent basis. In some temperate regions, original old-growth forests are still harvested to supply pulpwood, resulting in a significant loss of carbon (C) storage. In theory, the paper cycle holds the promise of achieving zero net emissions if pulpwood production, consumption and disposal are carefully managed. In practice, even stabilization of emissions at current levels would be challenging and entail changes comparable to a 20 percent reduction in CH₄ generation from landfilled paper, and a 2.5 percent annual increase in plantation establishment would be needed to offset the projected increase in emissions from paper manufacturing.     

中国煤炭供应行业格局优化及排放

随着中国经济发展进入新常态,煤炭行业正在发生巨大的变化。为降低中国未来煤炭供应行业总成本,在收集和分析行业现有格局及相关政策的基础上,研究优化未来中国煤炭产、运格局;并通过分析各地区煤炭供应行业的各个环节,最终核算出碳排放系数,再利用这些系数对优化格局下的煤炭活动产生的碳排放进行测算。结果显示：（1）在现有格局的基础上,在资源和政策的约束下,中国煤炭开发将不断集中化,山西、陕西、内蒙古、宁夏、甘肃、新疆的开发规模不断扩大,到2030年占全国总生产比例将近88%,比2015年提高17%;（2）煤炭调运压力先增后减,新疆、西南、东北等地区铁路运力不足,需不同程度地扩能;（3）2020年煤炭供应行业总排放约6.41亿t CO₂当量,单位供应排放比2015年降低8.75%,2030年总排放约5.26亿t CO₂当量,单位供应排放比2015年降低15.34%。在此基础上具体分析各地区煤炭生产、运输及排放情况,并提出了中国煤炭产业发展的相关对策建议,为煤炭行业相关决策和碳减排工作提供一定的支撑。     

湖泊碳循环研究进展及研究方法

近年来,碳循环问题日益成为全球变化与地球科学研究领域的前沿与热点问题,其中陆地生态系统碳循环又是全球碳循环中最复杂、受人类活动影响最大的部分,湖泊生态系统是陆地生态系统的重要组成部分,在维护区域生态平衡和生物多样性保护等方面具有重要作用。由于全球湖泊面积迅速减少,湖泊生态系统正常的水循环和碳循环过程产生一定的变化,湖泊生态系统的演变也可能是全球大气CO2含量升高的一个不可忽视的因素,因此了解湖泊碳循环国内外研究进展及研究方法,对于研究湖泊碳循环对全球碳循环的作用有重要的意义。     

Using adaptive governance to rethink the way science supports Australian drought policy

In this paper we show how ideas from a longstanding but little recognised literature on adaptive governance can be used to rethink the way science supports Australian drought policy. We compare and contrast alternative ways of using science to support policy in order to critique traditional commentary on Australian drought policy. We find that criticism from narrow disciplinary and institutional perspectives has provided few practical options for policy makers managing these complex and interacting goals. In contrast, ideas from a longstanding but little recognised literature on adaptive governance have potential to create innovative policy options for addressing the multiple interacting goals of Australian drought policy.From an adaptive governance perspective, the deep concern held by Australian society for rural communities affected by drought can be viewed as a common property resource that can be sustainably managed by governments in cooperation with rural communities. Managing drought assistance as a common property resource can be facilitated through nested and polycentric systems of governance similar to those that have already evolved in other arenas of natural resource management in Australia, such as Landcare groups and Catchment Management Authorities. Essential to delivering these options is the creation of flexible, regionally distributed scientific support for drought policy capable of integrating local knowledge and informing the livelihood outcomes of critical importance to governments and rural communities.     

森林经营主体的碳汇供给潜力差异及影响因素研究

增加森林碳汇已成为应对气候变化的重要举措。论文基于浙江、江西和福建三省农户和林场的调研数据,以杉木为案例树种,引用生长模型、修正的Faustmann 模型碳密度和价格数据,对单一和碳汇木材复合经营目标下的杉木最佳轮伐期和林地期望值进行了分析,并基于此比较了不同森林经营主体碳汇供给潜力的差异,同时模拟了不同营林成本和利率水平下对森林经营主体碳汇供给差异造成的影响。可以发现,在可能的碳汇林经营模式下,基于目前杉木市场价格远高于碳价格的现实,森林经营主体的经营采伐决策并不会发生明显改变,从而导致在大范围的碳价格变动下碳汇的供给也没有显著增加,这也说明木材收益和碳收益的两个不同经营目标是协调的;林场凭借着规模、技术和资金等资源禀赋优势将成为今后碳汇林的适宜经营和供给主体;从影响因素来看,目前市场利率处于低位徘徊的前提下,即碳汇林地的潜在投资价值巨大,尤其对劣等土地的投资效果明显;理论上营林成本会提升继而导致碳汇供给增加,这反而对于森林固碳有显著正面影响。     

Forests in climate policy: technical,institutional and economic issues in measurement and monitoring

Despite the economic and environmental significance of the world’s forests, we have limited data about them. Estimates of deforestation in tropical countries and rates of reforestation or afforestation in boreal and temperate countries are inconsistent. Accordingly, estimates of emissions released in deforestation vary widely and range from 7% to 17% of all sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The lack of good data severely hampers efforts to shape climate policy because it is difficult to model the role of forests both in the physical global carbon (C) cycle and in cost-effective regimes to abate GHG. Data limits strain the capacity of even the best models to estimate marginal cost functions for forest carbon (C) sequestration. It is technically possible to obtain better information, but for institutional and economic reasons these technologies have not yet been fully deployed. The emergence of carbon (C) trading or tax policy in which forest carbon (C) storage becomes valued would strengthen incentives to supply better data, as would nonmarket regulation if it elicited a shadow value of forest carbon (C) in substituting for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. “Geo-wiki” may provide a short-term solution to at least part of the data problem. The ultimate solution is the development of a comprehensive forest monitoring system involving remote sensing and on-the-ground truthing. This paper briefly discusses the role of forests in climate policy and then describes data gaps, the capability of technology to fill them, the limits of institutions and budgets in realizing this capability, and possible near-term solutions.     

外源碳氮添加对草地碳循环关键过程的影响

人类活动引起的大量的活性氮从大气沉降到生物圈.当前氮沉降对草地生态系统碳循环过程的影响机制仍然存在较大的不确定性.本文综述草地生态系统碳循环过程（植物光合作用、地上生物量、地下生物量、土壤呼吸、凋落物分解和土壤有机碳含量）对添加不同的氮源水平和不同施氮年限的响应,并分析这些过程变化的可能原因,同时,也阐述草地碳循环关键过程对外源碳输入的响应,并进一步分析了外源碳和氮输入对草地碳循环关键过程影响的微生物学作用机制.通过上述总结旨在强调说明碳源可利用性变化作为氮沉降背景下草地生态系统碳循环关键过程重要调控因素之一,开展相关研究对科学的管理我国草地资源配置和增加土壤碳汇方面理论的重要意义.     

The energy-environment nexus: aerosol science and technology enabling solutions

Energy issues are important and consumption is slated to increase across the globe in the future. The energy-environment nexus is very important as strategies to meet future energy demand are developed. To ensure sustainable growth and development, it is essential that energy production is environmentally benign. There are two temporal issues—one that is immediate, and needs to address the environmental compliance of energy generation from fossil fuel sources; and second that is the need to develop newer alternate and more sustainable approaches in the future. Aerosol science and technology is an enabling discipline that addresses the energy issue over both these time scales. The paper is a review of aspects of aerosol science and engineering that helps address carbon neutrality of fossil fuels. Advanced materials to meet these challenges are discussed. Future approaches to effective harvesting of sunlight that are enabled by aerosol studies are discussed.     

A generalised approach of accounting for biospheric carbon stock changes under the Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol aims to reduce net emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere by various measures including through management of the biosphere. However, the wording that has been adopted may be difficult and costly to implement, and may ultimately make it impossible to cost-effectively include biosphere management to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions. An alternative scheme is proposed here, especially for the second and subsequent commitment periods, to more effectively deal with the anthropogenic component of carbon stock changes in the biosphere. It would categorise the terrestrial biosphere into different land-use types, with each one having a characteristic average carbon density determined by land-use and environmental factors. Each transition from one land-use type to another, or a change in average carbon density within a specified type due to changed management would be defined as anthropogenic and credited or debited to the responsible nation. To calculate annual credits and/or debits, the change in average carbon stocks must be divided by a time constant which would either be a characteristic of each possible land-use conversion, or applicable to the sum of changes to a nation's biospheric carbon stocks. We believe that this scheme would be simpler and less expensive to implement than one based on the measurement of actual carbon changes from all specified areas of land. It would also avoid undue credits or debits, because they would only accrue as a result of identified anthropogenic components of biospheric carbon changes whereas carbon fluxes that are due to natural variation would not be credited or debited.     

不确定条件下碳税政策对北京市能源环境系统影响研究

在考虑碳税政策情景下,构建了北京市能源环境系统规划模型,分析了碳税政策对北京市能源环境系统的影响.结果表明,到2020年北京市煤炭的用量将压减到[921.7, 1000]万t标准煤;相反,天然气和电力的使用量将分别增加到[2000.7, 2089.3]万t标准煤和[1950.3, 2183.8]万t标准煤;此外,本研究还分析了碳税政策对CO2及大气污染物(SO2、NOx和PM10)的排放变化情况.到2020年碳税情境下的结果较无碳税情境下的相比, CO2的减排比例达到[9.0, 11]%, SO2、NOx和PM10的协同减排比例分别达到[9.0, 11]%,[19, 31]%和[19, 20]%.     

广泛开展资源信息科学研究和应用

信息技术的发展和应用 ,推动了社会前进、经济发展和科学技术的进步 ,在人类进入21世纪的今天 ,更加重视信息技术在各个领域的发展和广泛应用。在资源科学领域应用和发展信息技术早已得到资源科学家和信息技术科技工作者的共识 ,并已取得了长足的进展。文中对资源科学的重要分支---资源信息科学及其技术的产生、理论基础以及在资源科学研究中的应用做简要介绍。并指出 ,进入21世纪的资源信息科学应广泛开展与应用紧密结合的研究 ,不但要开发应用现有资源信息技术 ,同时要超前研究和试验国际上的热点问题 ,从而加速实现资源科学研究的现代化     

差异化碳减排目标对区域产业部门经济与碳减排的影响

碳减排目标是实现减排任务的重要保障.为探讨差异化减排目标对区域产业部门经济与碳减排的影响,以在我国具有特定区位条件（“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的重要节点）和经济发展现状（相对较为落后）的广西壮族自治区为主要研究区域,构建包括广西壮族自治区和我国其他地区〔除广西壮族自治区以外的其他省（自治区、直辖市）,但不含港澳台地区,下同〕在内的可计算的一般均衡模型,设定P55C65、P75C65、P65C55、P65C65、P65C75（“P”表示广西壮族自治区,“C”表示我国其他地区,“55”“65”“75”分别表示碳减排目标依次为55%、65%、75%）和基准情景（无减排目标）,研究区域间宏观经济和微观产业部门指标之间的相互影响.结果表明:①无差异情景（P65C65）下,广西壮族自治区农林牧渔业2030年的产值为741.17×108元,比基准情景下降0.19%;我国其他地区电子设备制造业的产值为33 457.49×108元,比基准情景下降2.00%.对广西壮族自治区碳排放贡献较大的产业部门主要为食品制造业、金属冶炼及压延业和服务业,而我国其他地区碳排放主要受电力热力生产的影响.②差异化情景下,这两个区域的金属冶炼及压延部门受减排约束影响均较明显.相比无差异情景,P75C65情景下,广西壮族自治区2030年金属冶炼及压延部门的出口总值和省际输出分别降至17.55×108和186.32×108元,分别下降了6.80%和1.65%;本地供应和产出分别降至358.72×108和562.59×108元,分别下降了1.85%和1.95%;金属冶炼及压延部门碳排放降至4 997×104 t,下降了12.79%.而我国其他地区2030年P75C65情景下,金属冶炼及压延部门的出口总值、省际输出、本地供应和产出则分别上升了0.05%、2.06%、0.06%和0.06%,分别增至1 283.24×108、28.25×108、26 598.95×108和27 910.43×108元,该部门的碳排放上升了0.05%,增至82 927×104 t.尽管碳减排目标能有效降低广西壮族自治区的碳排放,但也会给其产业部门带来一定的经济损失,该区域的出口、省际输出、本地供应和产出不仅受自身减排目标的影响,也受到我国其他地区减排目标的约束.建议在落实各省（自治区、直辖市）减排任务时,也要实施差异化减排目标,发展当地的优势产业.      

Accounting for sequestered carbon: the question of permanence

In its attempt to provide quantitative limits on greenhouse gas emissions, the Kyoto protocol accepts the principle that sequestration of carbon in the terrestrial biosphere can be used to offset emissions of carbon from fossil-fuel combustion. Whether or not the Kyoto protocol ever comes into force, it is worthwhile to understand how carbon sequestration might be treated in any mitigation plan that provides a tax or ration on carbon emissions. Emission credits, as proposed for the energy sector, are based on the idea that a prevented emission is prevented forever, and emission credits might be traded among parties. In the event that sequestered carbon is subsequently released to the atmosphere, it would be advantageous to agree what the liability is and who assumes that liability. We describe a system whereby emissions credits could be rented, rather than sold, when carbon is sequestered but permanence of sequestration is either not certain or not desired. Our proposal is similar to that offered by the government of Colombia except that it casts these temporary emissions credits into the traditional concepts of rental agreements and it clarifies the opportunities for secondary transactions. A rental contract for emissions credits would establish continuous responsibility for sequestered carbon; credit would be assigned when carbon is sequestered and debits would accrue when carbon is emitted.     

海洋浮游植物对磷限制的响应机制

海洋浮游植物是全球初级生产力的重要贡献者,它们的生物量主要受到氮、磷、铁等营养元素的限制。磷元素作为浮游植物所必需的元素,在寡营养海域的真光层海水中十分缺乏,是浮游植物生长的限制因子。磷元素的缺乏不仅直接影响浮游植物的生长繁殖及物种演替,还对海洋碳、氮生物地球化学循环产生深远影响。全球变暖加剧海水层化,进而减少垂直混合带来的营养盐补充。面对不断变化的海洋环境,浮游植物通过减缓细胞生长、加强磷吸收和储存、分解有机磷、磷脂替代、降低细胞对磷酸盐的依赖等方式,应对海洋环境中的磷限制。本文总结了近年来海洋浮游植物应对磷限制响应机制的最新研究进展,主要从生理响应和生态效应方面综述了海洋磷限制对浮游植物的影响以及浮游植物响应海洋磷限制的策略,希望对海洋浮游植物和海洋环境科学相关研究具有借鉴意义。     

Making science relevant to environmental policy

Implementation of current environmental and natural resource policy has created an era of regulatory discontent, and has prompted calls for new approaches to management that can achieve both long-term ecological sustainability and improved policy performance. These new approaches, such as ecosystem management, emphasize the importance of holistic and integrated science, meaningful public involvement to reflect changing societal goals and objectives, collaborative decisionmaking, and flexible and adaptable institutions. Implementing such approaches will require significant institutional change in all institutions, including the institution of science. Attributes of the scientific culture — including adherence to the myth of objective, value-free science, preference for technical solutions as first-order solutions, and advancement of the scientific method and scientific rationality as preferred logic — have often worked to separate scientists from citizens and science from the policymaking process. They have also fostered undemocratic processes and results. Changes in the institution and culture of science, including embracing more holistic and integrated scientific processes, creating a more civic science, and rethinking the role of scientific advocacy in the policy process, will be required to move toward democratic as well as ecological sustainability.