Correlating negotiation hotspot issues,Paris climate agreement and the international climate policy regime

The concerns over climate change negotiation, decision texts and links to domestic policy interests of countries to keep warming within an acceptable limit have become the ‘hotspot issues’ of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Hotspot issues are the human – political economy factors which have evolved over time from negotiation texts or phrases, principles or behaviors with tendencies to influence climate negotiations yet cannot be identified with the scientific literature. Whilst big emitters have been accused as having hegemony over the negotiations, the effects of disunity amongst the parties over domestic policy interests have been overlooked. Hence the article examines the emergence of hotspot issues and how they manifest within the international climate policy regime. The Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) of 130 countries submitted before the Paris agreement, were analyzed using the following texts: Adaptation, Mitigation, Co-benefits, Finance, Land use, Food security, Poverty, Resilience, Green growth, Green economy, Sustainable development, Biodiversity, Ecosystem services and Conservation. Of these, ‘adaptation’ was cited 2780 times, 1956 for ‘mitigation’ and 32 for ‘ecosystem services’ in the nature conservation category. Ten phases of the climate policy regime and historical hotspot issues were identified for the period 1980–2030. ‘Adaptation’ and mitigation appeared more frequently in the INDCs and correlated with each other (r = 0.56), as the two correlated further with ‘land use’ (0.50 < r < 0.60), and similarly with sustainable development (0.40 < r < 0.70) where ‘r’ is the Pearson Rank Correlation. Therefore the success of the ‘ambitious targets’ for mitigation will depend on similar ambitious goals for adaptation, land use and sustainable development. Several differences existed in the correlation of the hotspot issues within the regional geographical blocs (Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Oceania, South America) and split along the hotspot issues yet Europe mostly oriented towards mitigation and land use, and Oceania on resilience building. These differences provide favorable conditions for increased cooperation and true multilateralism if they are properly diagnosed.     

Risky business: Engaging the public on sea level rise and inundation

To examine whether U.S. public opinion may become as sharply polarized on adaptation responses as it has been on mitigation policies, we surveyed a sample of urban coastal residents in Maryland (n = 378). We then tested the impact of a community deliberative event (n = 40) with small-group sea level rise discussions as a depolarization strategy. Cultural worldviews which contribute to politically polarized beliefs about climate were predictive of perceptions of sea level rise risk. Living close to flooding hazards also significantly predicted respondents’ perceptions of household or neighborhood risks, but not of risks to the entire county. The event significantly increased topic knowledge among all participants and, among those with a worldview predisposing them to lower risk perceptions, significantly increased problem identification and concern about impacts. These results suggest small-group deliberation focused on local problem-solving may be an effective tool for reducing the polarizing effects of cultural worldviews on decision-making.     

The perceived psychological distance of climate change impacts and its influence on support for adaptation policy

Factors influencing support for climate mitigation policy in the United States are well researched, however, research regarding individuals’ support for climate adaptation policy is relatively sparse. This study explores how an individual’s perception of climate change impacts may influence their support for adaptation actions. Results of a survey of the U.S. public (n = 653) indicates that individuals who believe climate change impacts are unlikely to happen or will primarily affect other people in other places are less likely to be concerned about climate change impacts and less likely to support climate adaptation. However, an individual’s support for climate change adaptation measures is not influenced by their perception of when climate change impacts will occur even when taking into account concern for climate impacts. Critical for policy-makers, a belief that climate adaptation measures will not be effective attenuates the relationship between psychological distance, concern for climate change impacts, and adaptation policy measures. Our results indicate that to effectively communicate about climate change, policy-makers should emphasize that: (i) climate change impacts are occurring, (ii) that their constituents are being affected now, or will be in the future, and (iii) communicate that adaptation measures can be effective in addressing risks associated with climate change impacts.     

Impact caps: why population,affluence and technology strategies should be abandoned

This paper classifies strategies to reduce environmental impact according to the terms of the I = PAT formula. Policies limiting resource depletion and pollution (Impact) – by heavily taxing resources or rationing them on a country basis – are thus called ‘direct’ or ‘left-side’ strategies. Other policies to achieve the environmental goal of lowering Impact strive to limit Population and Affluence, or to use Technology to lower the ratio of resource inputs to goods-and-services outputs. Next it is shown that lowering any of these ‘right-side’ factors causes or at least enables the other two to rise or ‘rebound’. This has two consequences: 1) Since I = PAT does not express these interdependencies on the right side, it is more accurately written I = f(P,A,T); and 2) Success in lowering any of the right-side factors does not necessarily lower Impact. Rationing or Pigouvian taxation of resources or pollution, on the other hand, necessarily lower impact and are therefore preferable to population, consumption and technological environmental strategies. Finally, lifestyle and technology changes towards more sufficiency and efficiency would follow the caps as consumers and producers work to retain the greatest amount of welfare within the limits given.     

Assessing the likelihood of catchments across England and Wales meeting ‘good ecological status’ due to sediment contributions from agricultural sources

This paper is concerned with estimating the gap between current and compliant losses of suspended sediment from the agricultural sector in England and Wales in relation to achieving ‘good ecological status’ (GES) in freshwaters by 2015. Given the emphasis on strategic information for policy support, the assessment necessitated a novel modelling methodology for predicting mean annual total suspended sediment loads (SSL) and time-weighted suspended sediment concentrations (SSC). GES was defined as the guideline annual average SSC of 25 mg l⁻¹ cited by the EC Freshwater Fish Directive. Total suspended sediment inputs to all rivers across England and Wales were estimated using a national sediment source apportionment exercise detailing the contributions from diffuse agricultural and urban sources, eroding channel banks and point sources. The total SSL estimated for each Water Framework Directive (WFD) sub-catchment (n = 7816) across England and Wales was used in conjunction with predicted flow exceedance to derive corresponding SSC time-exceedance plots. Spatial variations in modelled time-averaged SSC compared well with available monitoring data. Given the focus upon national scale, the predictive power of the SSC model (r² = 33%) was considered realistic. The modelling approach provided a means of mapping the probability of annual average SSC being less than the 25 mg l⁻¹ standard for GES due to sediment losses from all potential, as well as from agricultural sources only. In order to meet GES in non-compliant catchments, suspended sediment losses from diffuse agricultural sources will typically need to be reduced by up to 20%, but by as much as 80% in isolated cases.     

Reliability and input-data induced uncertainty of the EPIC model to estimate climate change impact on sorghum yields in the U.S. Great Plains

Crop simulation models are frequently used to estimate the impact of climate change on crop production. However, few studies have evaluated the model performance in ways that most researchers practiced in climate impact studies. In this article, we examined the reliability of the EPIC model in simulating grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) yields in the U.S. Great Plains under different climate scenarios, namely in years with normal or extreme temperature and precipitation. We also investigated model uncertainties introduced by input data that are not site-specific but commonly used or available for climate change studies. Historical field trial data of sorghum at the Mead Experimental Center, NE, were used for model evaluations. The results showed that overall model reliability was about 56%. The mean absolute relative error (absRE) was about 29%. The degree of accuracy and reliability varied with climate-classes and nitrogen (N)-treatments. The largest bias occurred in drought years (RE = ?25%) and the most unreliable results were found in N-0 treatment (reliability = 32%). There was more than 69% probability that input-data-induced uncertainties were limited to less than 20% of absRE. Our results support the application of the EPIC model to climate change impact studies in the U.S. Great Plains. However, efforts are needed to improve the accuracy in simulating crop responses to extreme water- and nitrogen-stressed conditions.     

Exceedance of modern ‘background’ fine-grained sediment delivery to rivers due to current agricultural land use and uptake of water pollution mitigation options across England and Wales

Excessive loss of fine-grained sediment to rivers is widely recognised as a global environmental problem. To address this issue, policy teams and catchment managers require an estimate of the ‘gap’ requiring remediation, as represented by the excess above ‘background’ losses. Accordingly, recent work has estimated the exceedance of modern ‘background’ sediment delivery to rivers at national scale across England and Wales due to (i) current agricultural land cover, cropping and stocking, and (ii) current land use corrected for the uptake of on-farm mitigation measures. This sectoral focus recognises that, nationally, agriculture has been identified as the principal source of fine sediment loss to the aquatic environment. Two estimates of modern ‘background’ sediment loss, based on paleolimnological evidence, were used in the analysis; the target modern ‘background’ (TMBSDR) and maximum modern ‘background’ (MMBSDR) sediment delivery to rivers. For individual (n = 4485) non-coastal water bodies, the sediment ‘gap’ in excess of TMBSDR and MMBSDR, due to current land cover, cropping and stocking, was estimated to range up to 1368 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ (median 61 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) and 1321 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ (median 19 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹), respectively. The respective ranges in conjunction with current land cover, cropping and stocking but corrected for the potential impact of on-farm sediment mitigation measures were up to 1315 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ (median 50 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) and 1269 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ (median 8 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). Multiplication of the estimates of excess sediment loss corrected for current measure uptake, above TMBSDR and MMBSDR, with estimated maximum unit damage costs for the detrimental impacts of sediment pollution on ecosystem goods and services, suggested respective water body ranges up to 495 £ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ and 478 £ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. Nationally, the total loss of sediment in excess of TMBSDR was estimated at 1,389,818 t yr⁻¹ equating to maximum environmental damage costs of £523 M yr⁻¹, due to current structural land use, compared to 1,225,440 t yr⁻¹ equating to maximum damage costs of £462 M yr⁻¹ due the uptake of on-farm sediment control measures. The corresponding total loss of sediment in excess of MMBSDR was estimated at 1,038,764 t yr⁻¹ equating to maximum damage costs of £462 M yr⁻¹, compared with 890,146 t yr⁻¹ and £335 M yr⁻¹ correcting excess agricultural sediment loss for current implementation of abatement measures supported by policy instruments. This work suggests that the current uptake of sediment control measures on farms across England and Wales is delivering limited benefits in terms of reducing loadings to rivers and associated environmental damage costs.     

Policy implementation of catchment-scale flood risk management: Learning from Scotland and England

Recent years have seen a gradual adoption of a “catchment-scale” approach to flood risk management into European policy-making which, amongst other objectives, promotes rural land use change to reduce flood risk. While some exploratory studies of land managers’ attitudes exist, research is lacking on how public policies can be mobilised locally to implement these ideas. Two local initiatives were analysed in the transboundary River Tweed basin in Scotland and England during which public authorities negotiated with land managers. A combination of documents (N = 21) and interviews (N = 63) forms the basis of the data analysed. The results showed that implementation is highly dependent on the local policy framework, the activities of implementers, and land managers’ responses to (combination of) policy instruments. Several factors were identified influencing implementation such as devolution arrangements (i.e. from national to regional/local), the level of local interest on flood risk, local attitudes to compromise and collaboration, available policy instruments, and the existence of participatory catchment organisations. With limited scope for stand-alone regulatory action or funding in the short term, synergies and measures promoting co-benefits in flood risk management should be further sought in the Water Framework Directive River Basin Management Plans, as well as in cross-compliance and the new agri-environment-climate strategies of the common agricultural policy.     

Metal-cored arc welding process for joining of modified 9Cr-1Mo (P91) steel

In the present work, metal-cored arc welding process was used for joining of modified 9Cr-1Mo (P91) steel. Metal-cored arc welding process is characterized by high productivity, slag-free process, defect-free weldments that can be produced with ease, and good weldability. Toughness is essential in welds of P91 steel during hydro-testing of vessels. There is a minimum required toughness of 47 J for welds that has to be met as per the EN1557:1997 specification. In the present study, welds were completed using two kinds of shielding gases, each composition being 80% Argon + 20% CO₂, and pure argon respectively. Microstructural characterization and toughness evaluation of welds were done in the as – weld, PWHT at 760 °C – 2 h and PWHT at 760 °C – 5 h conditions. The pure argon shielded welds (‘A2’ and ‘B2’) have higher toughness than 80% argon + 20% CO₂ shielded welds (‘A1’ and ‘B1’). Pure argon shielded welds show less microinclusion content with low volume fraction of δ-ferrite (<2%) phase. Themo-calc windows (TCW) was used for the prediction of equilibrium critical transformation points for the composition of the welds studied. With increase in post-weld heat treatment (PWHT) duration from 2 h to 5 h, there was increase in toughness of welds above 47 J. Using metal-cored arc welding process, it was possible to achieve the required toughness of more than 47 J after PWHT at 760 °C – 2 h in P91 steel welds.     

Comparison of registry methodologies for reporting carbon benefits for afforestation projects in the United States

No mandatory national program currently exists to mitigate climate change in the US Consequently, voluntary programs and mandatory state-level programs are multiplying to allow users to register emission-offset activities, creating multiple often contradictory measurement and recording standards.For the land use sector we examined a hypothetical project: tree planting on rangelands in California. We apply four sets of protocols from the following registries – the California Climate Action Registry, the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and the USDOE 1605(b) program – and compare the results to the ‘actual’ net sequestration and also briefly compare them to international protocols such as the relevant Clean Development Mechanism methodology. Carbon in land use can be estimated accurately, precisely and cost-effectively, but to achieve this requires good protocols. As predicted, the consequence of applying different protocols for reportable carbon was significant. The choice of measurement pools, the handling of the baseline and the issue of uncertainty led to a baseline estimate of 0–66,690 t CO₂-e, and final sequestered carbon totals (after 60 years) that varied between 118,044 and 312,685 t CO₂-e—a factor of 2.5 difference. The amount reported under 1605(b) is the closest to “actual” with CCX entity reporting the most divergent.     

Adaptation to climate change of wheat growing in South Australia: Analysis of management and breeding strategies

Evaluation of adaptive management options is very crucial for successfully dealing with negative climate change impacts. Research objectives of this study were (1) to determine the proper N application rate for current practice, (2) to select a range of synthetic wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars to expand the existing wheat cultivar pool for adaptation purpose, (3) to quantify the potential impacts of climate change on wheat grain yield and (4) to evaluate the effectiveness of three common management options such as early sowing, changing N application rate and use of different wheat cultivars derived in (2) and given in the APSIM-Wheat model package in dealing with the projected negative impacts for Keith, South Australia. The APSIM-Wheat model was used to achieve these objectives. It was found that 75 kg ha^?1 N application at sowing for current situation is appropriate for the study location. This provided a non-limiting N supply condition for climate change impact and adaptation evaluation. Negative impacts of climate change on wheat grain yield were projected under both high (?15%) and low (?10%) plant available water capacity conditions. Neither changes in N application level nor in wheat cultivar alone nor their synergistic effects could offset the negative climate change impact. It was found that early sowing is an effective adaptation strategy when initial soil water was reset at 25 mm at sowing but this may be hard to realise especially since a drier environment is projected.     

Changes in soil fertility parameters and the environmental effects in a rapidly developing region of China

An extensive knowledge of the temporal variability of soil fertility parameters and how this variation affects the environment is imperative to a wide range of disciplines within agricultural science for optimal crop production and ecosystem preservation. This paper examines the temporal variability of soil pH, organic matter (OM), cation exchange capacity (CEC), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), available phosphorus (P_Av), and available potassium (K_Av) on Cambosols (Entisols) (n = 179) and Anthrosols (Inceptisols) (n = 95) in Zhangjiagang County, China from 1980 to 2004. Nutrient input was monitored from 1983 to 2004. Annual N fertilizer rates were significantly different during three periods (1983–1989, 1989–1999, 1999–2004), where annual rates increased significantly after 1989 and then decreased after 1999. Annual P fertilizer rates were significantly different during two periods (1983–1993, 1993–2004) where annual rates increased after 1993. No change was found in K fertilizer rates. Soil pH marginally increased by 0.14 units in Cambosols, but significantly decreased by 1.02 units in Anthrosols. OM, CEC, and TN increased in both soil orders an average of 2.15 g kg^?1, 1.6 cmol kg^?1, and 0.21 g kg^?1, respectively. TP decreased in Anthrosols by 70 mg kg^?1, P_Av increased in Cambosols by 4.83 mg kg^?1, and K_Av decreased in Cambosols by 15 mg kg^?1. Fertilizer input rates are causing nutrient imbalances, contributing to acidification in Anthrosols, and decreasing C/N ratios. Nutrient loading of N and deficiency of K is also a potential problem in the area. Efforts should be made to readjust soil nutrient inputs to reach an optimal, sustainable level.     

Effects of different diets on utilization of nitrogen from cattle slurry applied to grassland on a sandy soil in The Netherlands

Dietary adjustments have been suggested as a means to reduce N losses from dairy systems. Differences in fertilizing value of dairy slurry as a result of dietary adjustments were evaluated in a 1-year grassland experiment and by long-term modelling. Slurry composition of non-lactating dairy cows was manipulated by feeding diets with extreme high and low levels of dietary protein and energy. C:N_total ratio of the produced slurries ranged from 5.1 to 11.4. To evaluate their short-term fertilizer N value, the experimental slurries (n = 8) and slurries from commercial farms with variable composition (n = 4), were slit-injected in two grassland fields on the same sandy soil series in the north of The Netherlands (53°10′N, 6°04′E), with differences in sward age and ground water level. The recently established grassland field (NEW) was characterized by lower soil OM, N and moisture contents, less herbs and more modern grass varieties compared to the older grassland field (OLD). Slurry was applied in spring (100 kg N ha⁻¹) and after the first cut (80 kg N ha⁻¹) while in total four cuts were harvested. Artificial fertilizer N treatments were included in the experiment to calculate the mineral fertilizer equivalent (MFE) of slurry N. The OLD field showed a higher total N uptake whereas DM yields were similar for the two fields. Average MFE of the slurries on the OLD field (47%) was lower than on the NEW field (56%), probably as a result of denitrification of slurry N during wet conditions in spring. Slurries from high crude protein diets showed a significantly higher MFE (P < 0.05) compared to low crude protein diets. No significant differences in MFE were observed between slurries from high and low energy diets. On both fields, MFE appeared to be positively related to the ammonium content (P < 0.001) and negatively to the C:N_total ratio of the slurry DM (P = 0.001). Simulation of the effect of long-term annual application of 180 kg N ha⁻¹ with highest and lowest C:N_total ratio suggested that both slurries would lead to an increase in annual soil N mineralization. Both soil N mineralization and SOC appeared to be substantially higher in equilibrium state for the slurry with the highest C:N_total ratio. It is concluded that in a situation with slit-injection, the reduced first-year N availability of slurry with a high C:N_total ratio as observed in the grassland experiment will only be compensated for by soil N mineralization on the very long term.     

The precautionary principle and environmental persistence: prioritizing the decision-making process

There is continuing activity among regulatory bodies to assess and prioritize chemicals used in commerce based on their potential to be persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic (PBT). Reliable data needed to perform a PBT hazard or risk assessment, however, may not always be readily available. Consequently concern may arise regarding the potential for false positives and false negatives to be wrongly classified. In order to more effectively classify substances, adequate time is needed to acquire the necessary data to support the overall PBT assessment. Of particular interest is the question of whether or not restrictions on the use and manufacture of a substance can be delayed to allow time to conduct the necessary field and laboratory studies of a particular substance? To address this question it is demonstrated that chemical partitioning property and environmental persistence information can be effectively combined to provide guidance for regulatory priority setting. Specifically, it is argued that substances that have media specific half-life values that exceed the regulatory threshold value for persistence under the EU chemicals REACH program, for example, are more likely to have a ‘legacy’ associated with their use when the log K_OA > 8, and when they are emitted to air or soil. Thus, precautionary actions limiting the use and manufacture of the substance may be warranted. Whereas substances emitted to air with log K_OA < 6 and log K_AW > ?2 are less likely to have a ‘legacy’ associated with their use. Thus precautionary actions in the absence of data may not be warranted.     

Carbon stocks in Swiss agricultural soils predicted by land-use,soil characteristics,and altitude

Effects of agricultural land-use and land-use change on soil organic carbon (SOC) pools play an important role in the mitigation of the global greenhouse effect. To estimate these effects, baseline SOC data for individual regions or countries are needed. The aim of this study was to quantify current SOC stocks in Swiss agricultural soils, to identify meaningful predictors for SOC, and to estimate historical SOC losses. SOC stocks in mineral soils were estimated from combined georeferenced data for land-use, topography, and profile data (n=544) from soil surveys. Mean SOC density in the layer 0–20 cm ranged between 40.6±8.9 t ha⁻¹ (±95% confidence interval (CI)) for arable land and 50.7±12.2 t ha⁻¹ for favourable permanent grassland, and in the layer 0–100 cm from 62.9±15.2 t ha⁻¹ for unfavourable grassland to 117.4±29.8 t ha⁻¹ for temporary grasslands (leys). SOC stocks in organic soils were quantified separately for intact and cultivated peatlands using data from peatland inventories and current SOC densities calculated from average peat decay rates. Organic soils account for less than 3% of the total area but store about 28% (47.2±7.3 Mt) of the total SOC stock of 170±17 Mt. Land-use type, clay content, and altitude (serving as a climate proxy for grassland soils at higher altitudes) were identified as main SOC predictors in mineral soils. Clay content explained up to 44% of the variability in SOC concentrations in the fine earth of arable soils, but was not significantly related to SOC in grassland soils at higher altitudes. SOC concentration under permanent grassland increases linearly with altitude, but because soil depth and stone content limit carbon storage in alpine grassland soils, no relationship was found between altitude and SOC stock. A preliminary estimate suggested that about 16% of the national SOC stock has been lost historically due to peatland cultivation, urbanisation, and deforestation. It seems unlikely that future changes in agricultural practices could compensate for this historical SOC loss in Swiss agricultural soils.     

‘Formiguers’, a historical system of soil fertilization (and biochar production?)

‘Formiguers’ are structures similar to charcoal-kilns that were used to burn piles of biomass with a soil cover in order to produce fertilizers for agricultural plots. Their use was widespread in Spain up to the 1960s and similar structures are still in use in India and Bhutan. Our objective was to study the effects of the ‘formiguer’ on its soil cover in terms of changes in nutrient availability. We built an experimental 0.5-m³ ‘formiguer’ with 68 kg of plant material with a 12% moisture content and 550 kg of soil with a 16% moisture content. The content of organic carbon and mineral nitrogen decreased in the soil cover as a result of burning. After aerobic incubation all samples had a similar content of mineral nitrogen. Exchangeable potassium and total and labile phosphorus increased after burning as a result of the soil cover mixing with the ashes of the biomass as the ‘formiguer’ collapsed during burning in the first two cases, while mineralization of organic compounds produced the increase in labile phosphorus. This input of nutrients for the agricultural plots occurs at a net loss of 0.4–2.5 Mg organic C ha^?1. Very small amounts of charcoal were produced and this may be the reason for their low occurrence in soils today. Burning of ‘formiguers’ required the harvest of vegetation from a considerable forest area (10–25 ha per hectare of agricultural land) and represented a significant disturbance of these systems.     

Modeling increased demand of energy for air conditioners and consequent CO2 emissions to minimize health risks due to climate change in India

Developing countries situated mostly in latitudes that are projected for the highest climate change impact in the twenty-first century will also have a predictable increase in demand on energy sources. India presents us with a unique opportunity to study this phenomenon in a large developing country. This study finds that climate adaptation policies of India should consider the significance of air conditioners (A/Cs) in mitigation of human vulnerability due to unpredictable weather events such as heat waves. However, the energy demand due to air conditioning usage alone will be in the range of an extra ～750,000 GWh to ～1,350,000 GWh with a 3.7 °C increase in surface temperatures under different population scenarios and increasing incomes by the year 2100. We project that residential A/C usage by 2100 will result in CO₂ emissions of 592 Tg to 1064 Tg. This is significant given that India's total contribution to global CO₂ emissions in 2009 was measured at 1670 Tg and country's residential and commercial electricity consumption in 2007 was estimated at 145,000 GWh.     

Climate-driven changes in air quality over Europe by the end of the 21st century,with special reference to Portugal

Climate change alone may deeply impact air quality levels in the atmosphere because the changes in the meteorological conditions will induce changes on the transport, dispersion and transformation of air pollutants. The aim of this work was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the air quality over Europe and Portugal, using a reference year (year 1990) and a IPCC SRES A2 year (year 2100). The Hadley Centre global atmospheric circulation model (HadAM3P) was used to provide results for these two climatic scenarios, which were then used as synoptic forcing for the MM5-CHIMERE air quality modelling system. In order to assess the contribution of future climate change on O₃ and PM concentrations, no changes in regional emissions were assumed and only climate change forcing was considered. The modelling results suggest that the O₃ monthly mean levels in the atmosphere may increase almost 50 μg m^?3 across Europe in July under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. In Portugal, this increase may reach 20 μg m^?3. The changes of PM10 monthly average values over Europe will depend on the region. The increase in PM10 concentrations during specific months could be explained by the average reduction of the boundary layer height and wind speed.     

Links and broken chains: evidence of human-caused changes in land cover in remotely sensed images

Land use intensification on shrinking forage resources characterizes many livestock producing communities. Remotely sensed images can show land cover change, but how household decision making is reflected in images had not been synthesized. For eight areas in the US, Africa, and Mongolia (>340,000 km²), we ranked constraints in decision making, and quantified vegetation greenness trends from 1981 to 2004 and land cover change using 1990 and 2000 Landsat images. Constraints in decision making varied across the sites, but ecological settings ranked highest. Five sites showed increasing greenness (2.4–8.0% increase per decade; P ≤ 0.01); the African sites showed no change or declining greenness (−2.5%; P = 0.048). Land cover change in the US sites was modest, with most sites suitable for cultivation already converted by 1990. Cover change was minor in Mongolia, despite profound changes in government and economy. The Kenyan site showed the largest change in land cover. We hypothesize a humped relationship, where households in undeveloped regions lack the resources to convert land cover. Developed regions have reached some stasis in land use. Developing regions with high human population growth and residents with access to machinery show the greatest land cover change.     

Benefits and costs of controlling three allergenic alien species under climate change and dispersal scenarios in Central Europe

Climate change is likely to exacerbate the negative effects of invasive alien species (IAS) as it will foster their further spread. This paper analyses the potential socio-economic effects of three emerging IAS (giant ragweed, Ambrosia trifida; annual wormwood, Artemisia annua; and burweed marshelder, Iva xanthiifolia), which are known to cause substantial harm to human health and to have negative effects on agricultural production. The novelty of the study consists in an integrated approach that combines several aspects of IAS research and management. We model the future spread of the study species in Central Europe by the year 2050 under several climate change, management and spread scenarios. The costs and benefits of controlling the expansion of these IAS are based on this forecast. The results show that an early and coordinated response to the spread of these IAS yields substantial net benefits under all scenarios. Under the conditions of moderate climate change (+1.5 °C), discounted net benefits range from €19 to €582 million. Assuming more severe climate change (+2.4 °C), total savings over the full period are projected to add up to €1063 million. These large socio-economic benefits provide compelling evidence that public authorities should act preventively to restrict the spread of these three IAS.