Greenhouse gas abatement strategies for animal husbandry

Agriculture contributes significantly to the anthropogenic emissions of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases methane and nitrous oxide. In this paper, a review is presented of the agriculture related sources of methane and nitrous oxide, and of the main strategies for mitigation. The rumen is the most important source of methane production, especially in cattle husbandry. Less, but still substantial, amounts of methane are produced from cattle manures. In pig and poultry husbandry, most methane originates from manures. The main sources of nitrous oxide are: nitrogen fertilisers, land applied animal manure, and urine deposited by grazing animals. Most effective mitigation strategies for methane comprise a source approach, i.e. changing animals’ diets towards greater efficiencies. Methane emissions, however, can also be effectively reduced by optimal use of the gas produced from manures, e.g. for energy production. Frequent and complete manure removal from animal housing, combined with on-farm biogas production is an example of an integrated on-farm solution. Reduced fertiliser nitrogen input, optimal fertiliser form, adding nitrification inhibitors, land drainage management, and reduced land compaction by restricted grazing are the best ways to mitigate nitrous oxide emissions from farm land, whereas, management of bedding material and solid manure reduce nitrous oxide emissions from housing and storage. Other than for methane, mitigation measures for nitrous oxide interact with other important environmental issues, like reduction of nitrate leaching and ammonia emission. Mitigation strategies for reduction of the greenhouse gases should also minimize pollution swapping.     

猪粪堆肥过程保氮固磷及温室气体（N2O）减排研究

针对畜禽粪便堆肥过程存在的氮素流失与温室气体（N2O）排放及畜禽粪便堆肥产品土地利用过程的磷素流失等不足,采用强制通风反应器堆肥系统进行小试规模的猪粪堆肥试验,以改性赤泥和改性镁橄榄石为添加剂,考察和比较了这2种改性金属盐添加剂在猪粪堆肥过程对氮磷保存与温室气体（N2O）减排的效果.结果表明,添加改性镁橄榄石（pH=7...     

黄土及其他添加物对猪粪贮存过程氨气和温室气体排放的影响

畜禽粪肥在贮存阶段养分损失严重,是CO_2、CH_4、NH_3和N_2O等大气污染物的重要排放来源.本文采用室内培养方法,研究了添加黄土、秸秆、生物炭和膨润土对猪粪贮存过程中氨气及温室气体排放的影响.结果表明,添加10%用量的生物炭和膨润土处理的CO_2累积排放量与不添加任何添加物的猪粪对照相比分别降低了15.4%和20.9%,N_2O累积排放量分别降低了19.8%和37.6%.添加膨润土处理的NH_3损失量显著增加,但添加生物炭和膨润土处理的综合温室效应与猪粪对照相比均显著降低.添加10%秸秆处理的CH_4和NH_3累积排放量分别较猪粪对照降低了56.8%和95.8%,但其综合温室效应与对照相比差异不显著.模拟黄土垫圈过程添加黄土处理的氨气及温室气体累积排放量均显著降低,综合温室效应显著低于其他处理(p0.05).可见,黄土垫圈是保蓄粪肥碳、氮养分的有效措施,猪粪贮存阶段添加少量生物炭、膨润土对于减少粪肥综合温室效应具有积极作用.     

Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions in European conventional and organic dairy farming

Dairy farming is the largest agricultural source of the greenhouse gases methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) in Europe. A whole-farm modeling approach was used to investigate promising mitigation measures. The effects of potential mitigation measures were modeled to obtain estimates of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from representative dairy model farms in five European regions. The potential to reduce farm GHG emissions was calculated per kg milk to compare organic and conventional production systems and to investigate region and system specific differences. An optimized lifetime efficiency of dairy cows reduced GHG emissions by up to 13% compared to baseline model farms. The evaluation of frequent removal of manure from animal housing into outside covered storage reduced farm GHG emissions by up to 7.1%. Scraping of fouled surfaces per se was not an effective option since the reduction in GHG emissions from animal housing was more than out-weighed by increased emissions from the storage and after field application. Manure application by trail hose and injection, respectively, was found to reduce farm GHG emissions on average by 0.7 and 3.2% compared to broadcasting. The calculated model scenarios for anaerobic digestion demonstrated that biogas production could be a very efficient and cost-effective option to reduce GHG emissions. The efficiency of this mitigation measure depends on the amount and quality of organic matter used for co-digestion, and how much of the thermal energy produced is exploited. A reduction of GHG emissions by up to 96% was observed when all thermal energy produced was used to substitute fossil fuels. Potential measures and strategies were scaled up to the level of European regions to estimate their overall mitigation potential. The mitigation potential of different strategies based on a combination of measures ranged from −25 up to −105% compared to baseline model farms. A full implementation of the most effective strategy could result in a total GHG emission reduction of about 50 Mt of carbon dioxide (CO₂) equivalents per year for conventional dairy farms of EU(15) comparable to the defined model farms.     

Managing a forgotten greenhouse gas under existing U.S. law: An interdisciplinary analysis

The United States’ legal strategy for addressing climate change in recent years has relied on authority from existing legislation. This has led to measures on a number of different greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide, methane and hydrofluorocarbons. However, one greenhouse gas has been largely forgotten: nitrous oxide. Nitrous oxide is the third most abundantly emitted greenhouse gas in the U.S. and worldwide, as well as the largest remaining threat to the stratospheric ozone layer. In addition, the nitrogen atoms in nitrous oxide are part of the highly fluid nitrogen cycle where nitrogen atoms transform readily among different chemical forms, each with a unique environmental and human health impact – a process known as the nitrogen cascade. While the science of the nitrogen cascade has been explored for over a decade, there has been little work on the legal implications of this phenomenon. And yet the nitrogen cascade expands the legal options available for controlling nitrous oxide. This paper studies these options in a U.S. context and explores the environmental and economic impacts of enacting them. We determine that the Clean Air Act, and in particular its broad authority for controlling ozone depleting substances, is the most promising legal pathway for regulating nitrous oxide across all major sources. Invoking such authority could generate significant climate and stratospheric ozone benefits over 2015–2030, equivalent to taking 12 million cars permanently off the road, and 100 million chlorofluorocarbon-laden refrigerators out of service. The economic benefits could sum to over $700 billion over 2015–2030, with every $1.00 spent on abating emissions leading to $4.10 in societal benefits. The bulk of these benefits would come from reductions in other forms of nitrogen pollution such as ammonia and nitrate, highlighting the important and multiple co-benefits that could be achieved by abating nitrous oxide emissions. With the Paris Climate Agreement calling for limiting global temperature increases to “well below” two degrees Celsius, all mitigation opportunities across all sectors need to be considered. This paper suggests that nitrous oxide warrants more attention from policy-makers in the U.S. and around the world.     

Cover crop effects on nitrous oxide emission from a manure-treated Mollisol

Agriculture contributes 40–60% of the total annual N₂O emissions to the atmosphere. Development of management practices to reduce these emissions would have a significant impact on greenhouse gas levels. Non-leguminous cover crops are efficient scavengers of residual soil NO₃, thereby reducing leaching losses. However, the effect of a grass cover crop on N₂O emissions from soil receiving liquid swine manure has not been evaluated. This study investigated: (i) the temporal patterns of N₂O emissions following addition of swine manure slurry in a laboratory setting under fluctuating soil moisture regimes; (ii) assessed the potential of a rye (Secale cereale L.) cover crop to decrease N₂O emissions under these conditions; and (iii) quantified field N₂O emissions in response to either spring applied urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) or different rates of fall-applied liquid swine manure, in the presence or absence of a rye/oat winter cover crop. Laboratory experiments investigating cover crop effects N₂O emissions were performed in a controlled environment chamber programmed for a 14 h light period, 18 °C day temperature, and 15 °C night temperature. Treatments with or without a living rye cover crop were treated with either: (i) no manure; (ii) a phosphorus-based manure application rate (low manure): or (iii) a nitrogen-based manure application rate (high manure). We observed a significant reduction in N₂O emissions in the presence of the rye cover crop. Field experiments were performed on a fine-loamy soil in Central Iowa from October 12, 2005 to October 2, 2006. We observed no significant effect of the cover crop on cumulative N₂O emissions in the field. The primary factor influencing N₂O emission was N application rate, regardless of form or timing. The response of N₂O emission to N additions was non-linear, with progressively more N₂O emitted with increasing N application. These results indicate that while cover crops have the potential to reduce N₂O emissions, N application rate may be the overriding factor.     

Methane,nitrous oxide and ammonia emissions during storage and after application of dairy cattle slurry and influence of slurry treatment

Slurries are a significant source of CH₄, NH₃ and N₂O emissions to the atmosphere. The research project aimed at quantifying CH₄, NH₃ and N₂O emissions from liquid manure stores and after manure application under field conditions. The influence of the manure treatment options “no treatment”, “slurry separation”, “anaerobic digestion”, “slurry aeration” and “straw cover” on the emission level was investigated. Approximately 10 m³ of differently treated slurry were stored in pilot scale slurry tanks. Emissions were followed for c. 80 days. After the storage period, slurries were applied to permanent grassland. Greenhouse gas emissions from slurry were mainly caused by methane emissions during storage and by nitrous oxide emissions after field application of manures. Mitigation of GHG emissions can be achieved by a reduction in slurry dry matter and easily degradable organic matter content. Ammonia emissions mainly occurred after field application. Untreated slurry emitted 226.8 g NH₃ m⁻³ and 92.4 kg CO₂ eq. m⁻³ (storage and field application). Slurry separation (liquid fraction and composting of the solid fraction) resulted in NH₃ losses of 402.9 g m⁻³ and GHG losses of 58.5 kg CO₂ eq. m⁻³. Anaerobic digestion was a very effective means to reduce GHG emissions. 37.9 kg CO₂ eq. m⁻³ were lost. NH₃ emissions were similar to those from untreated slurry. Covering the slurry store with a layer of chopped straw instead of a wooden cover increased NH₃ emissions to 320.4 g m⁻³ and GHG emissions to 119.7 kg CO₂ eq. m⁻³. Slurry aeration nearly doubled NH₃ emissions compared to untreated slurry. GHG emissions were reduced to 53.3 kg CO₂ eq. m⁻³.     

纳米膜覆盖对畜禽粪便好氧堆肥进程及恶臭气体排放的影响

好氧堆肥是处理畜禽粪便的重要途径,但传统堆肥存在效率低和恶臭气体污染严重等问题.为了加快畜禽粪便堆肥进程,减少恶臭气体排放,探究了覆盖纳米膜对提升畜禽粪便堆肥效率的作用机制.设置槽式好氧堆肥发酵实验,通过堆肥过程中堆体物料的理化性质,酶活性和排放的恶臭气体来评估纳米膜对畜禽粪便堆肥效果的影响.结果表明,覆盖纳米膜能够加快升温,降低堆体物料的pH、有机质（OM）和氨氮（NH₄⁺-N）,提高电导率（EC）,增强脲酶、蛋白酶、纤维素酶、木聚糖酶和过氧化物酶的活性,并且NH₃、H₂S和TVOC的总累积排放量分别减少了58%、100%和61%.相关性分析显示,大多数酶活性易受温度（T）、EC、OM和C/N的影响.在一定范围内,NH₃的排放速率与T呈极显著正相关,与pH呈极显著负相关,TVOC的排放速率与多种理化性质显著相关.覆盖纳米膜能够加快堆体腐熟,减少恶臭气体的排放,是一种无害化、低排放的技术手段,能够有效解决畜禽粪便堆肥发酵带来的污染物排放难题,促进养殖业的绿色可持续发展,为推动生物质废弃物的资源化利用提供技术支撑.     

LCA of comprehensive pig manure management incorporating integrated technology systems

Increased and intensified pig production has raised the needs for proper management systems of pig manure in order to reduce negative environmental impacts. The objectives of this study were to identify the most significant environmental impacts from pig manure management considering a wide range of impact categories and to determine which integrated technology system at which handling stage can achieve the highest impact reduction. Twelve scenarios applying various treatment, storage and land application systems were developed and compared. Life cycle assessment (LCA) with the aim of capturing the actual consequences of the considered scenarios was selected as the tool for impact quantification. The most important impact categories in this investigation are global warming (GWP), aquatic eutrophication (AEP), respiratory inorganics (RIP), and terrestrial eutrophication (TEP). The two latter impacts, caused by ammonia emissions, have not been widely considered in most of previous LCA studies on pig manure management. The main keys for the effective impact reduction are the integration of treatment technology systems aiming at energy recovery with high nutrient recovery and control of greenhouse gas, ammonia, and nitrate emissions at every handling stage. For GWP and AEP, the anaerobic digestion-based scenario with natural crust storage achieves the highest impact reduction because of high efficiencies in energy and nutrient recovery with restricted emissions of GHG and nitrate. For RIP and TEP, the incineration and thermal gasification based scenarios and the scenario without a treatment system applying the deep injection method yield the highest impact minimisation due to the lowest ammonia emissions. This study further indicates the need to consider all significant impacts to decide the best management options taking into consideration local conditions.     

Effect of straw addition on nitrous oxide and methane emissions from stored farmyard manures

Stored solid manure heaps can be a significant source of nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄) emissions. The manure characteristics influence emissions and solid manure heaps can be managed to promote aerobic decomposition during storage. Increasing the carbon (C) content of the manure heap with high-C additives, such as straw, may provide the opportunity for N₂O and CH₄ emission reduction. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from conventionally produced farmyard manure (FYM) have been quantified, but there is little data on emissions from organically produced FYM. N₂O and CH₄ emissions were measured using a small-scale storage method from FYM collected from organic and conventional dairy units under a range of storage conditions with and without extra straw addition.The organic and the conventional FYM were similar in composition except for the higher C and dry matter content in the organic FYM and in the FYM with added straw. This resulted in mean total emissions of N₂O and CH₄ being lower from the organic (27 g N t⁻¹) than the conventional FYM (52 g N t⁻¹) and from the treatments with straw added (32 g N t⁻¹) than those without (47 g N t⁻¹). The initial C:N ratio and dry matter content of the stored FYM were the most important factors affecting N₂O and CH₄ emissions although the FYM temperature also affected CH₄ emissions. Adding high-C additives, such as straw could be a promising strategy for reducing GHG emissions because it influences the dry matter content, C:N ratio and aeration of the manure. The small-scale FYM storage method were shown to be a reliable and an easy method to quantify emissions under a range of environmental conditions and manure manipulations and so develop effective manure management practices to reduce GHG emissions.     

广东省人为源氨排放清单及减排潜力研究

根据各类氨排放源活动水平数据,采用排放因子法,建立了2010年广东省人为源氨排放清单,在分析其排放特征的基础上探讨了氨的减排潜力.结果表明:2010年广东省人为源氨排放量为582.9 kt,畜禽和氮肥施用是排放贡献最大的人为源,分别占总排放量的44.2%和40.4%;茂名、湛江和肇庆依次是排放量最大的3个城市,共占广东省总排放量33.0%;在畜禽源中,肉猪排放量最大,占畜禽源排放总量44.4%,其次是肉鸡、母猪和黄牛,分别占16.0%、15.2%和6.5%;畜禽在畜舍、储存管理、农田施肥和放牧4个养殖阶段的氨排放量不同;控制农业源对NH3的减排起关键性作用,茂名、湛江和肇庆是广东省重点控制的3个城市,肉猪、母猪、肉鸡、黄牛和氮肥施用则为重点控制源,主要控制措施包括低氮饲料喂养、畜舍改造、粪便密封、粪肥注施、延长放牧时间和使用尿素替代物.     

中国油气系统甲烷逸散排放估算

为实现碳达峰碳中和目标,中国正致力于推动能源低碳化转型,这促进能源由煤炭向油气资源的转变.因此,中国石油和天然气系统（油气系统）的甲烷（CH₄）排放日益受到关注.逸散排放包括设备泄漏、排空和火炬燃烧,涉及油气资源的开发、生产、运输、储存和分配等过程.但目前油气系统CH₄逸散排放缺乏统一的核算方法,逸散排放量亦未被纳入国家温室气体清单统计之中.基于相关方法,评估了1980~2020年中国油气系统的CH₄逸散排放.结果表明,油气系统的CH₄逸散排放随着油气资源的生产和消费增长而快速增加,由1980年不足60万t增长至2020年的超过260万t.石油系统和天然气系统在2020年的CH₄逸散排放分别达到约60万t和200万t,是1980年的1.38倍和16.6倍.油气系统的CH₄逸散主要源于天然气生产、石油生产、天然气分配、天然气运输和储存,分别占总排放的41%、20%、18%和13%.天然气管道是主要的逸散设施.相比于常规油气资源开发,非常规油气资源开发的排放强度更高.研究完善了CH₄逸散排放清单,可为CH₄减排提供重要科学数据支持.     

中国城镇污水处理厂温室气体排放时空分布特征

城镇污水处理厂由于运行过程中能够大量产生二氧化碳(CO_2)、甲烷(CH_4)和氧化亚氮(N_2O),而被视为重要的人为温室气体释放源.采用基于污染物削减量的排放因子法建立了2014年中国城镇污水处理厂温室气体(CO_2、CH_4和N_2O)排放清单,并分析温室气体排放的时空分布和影响因素.结果表明,2014年中国城镇污水处理厂温室气体排放总量(以CO_2-eq计)为7 348.60 Gg,CO_2、CH_4和N_2O排放量分别为6 054.57 Gg、27.47 Gg(769.08 Gg,以CO_2-eq计)和1.98 Gg(524.95 Gg,以CO_2-eq计);各省份间排放量差异明显,华东地区排放量较高,西北地区排放量较低,西藏几乎没有排放,2005~2014年这10年间中国通过城镇污水处理厂排放的温室气体总量增长了229.4%,CO_2、CH_4和N_2O的涨幅分别为217.9%、217.9%和520.3%;地区经济的发展水平和污水处理量与当地城镇污水厂温室气体释放量相关性最大,人均蛋白质供应量与城镇污水厂N_2O产生量密切相关.     

典型炼化企业温室气体甲烷排放特征

温室气体排放是造成全球变暖和气候恶化的重要根源.甲烷是仅次于二氧化碳的温室气体组分.石油加工过程是潜在的甲烷排放源.本文以我国广西某炼化企业为样本,通过现场采样和离线分析的方法,识别出炼化企业潜在的甲烷排放源,核算了不同排放源的甲烷排放量,分析了炼化企业的甲烷排放特征.研究表明,甲烷是炼化企业排放废气中的重要成分;烟气、污水收集和处理系统、储罐和油品装卸过程等均是重要的甲烷排放源项,其中烟气和储罐对甲烷排放总量贡献占比超过70%;不同源项甲烷排放特征各异,油品装载过程产生废气甲烷浓度最高;污水处理过程废气的甲烷浓度主要受常减压装置污水影响;该炼化企业每万吨原油对应的甲烷排放速率估算值为72.6 kg.     

Methane emissions during storage of different treatments from cattle manure in Tianjin

Many studies on methane emissions from animal manure have revealed that animal manure is a major source of methane emissions to the atmosphere that can have negative consequences for people,animals and environment.In general,the release of methane can be influenced by the type of feed taken by animals,temperature,manure characteristics and so on.This study aimed at quantifying and comparing methane release from dairy manure with different piling treatments.Four treatments were designed including manure piling height 30,45,60 cm and adding 6 cm manure every day until the piling height was 60 cm.Static chamber method and gas chromatography were adopted to measure the methane emissions from April to June in 2009.Methane emission rates of all four manure treatments were low in the first week and then increased sharply until reaching the peak values.Subsequently,all the methane emission rates decreased and fluctuated within the steady range till the end of the experiment.Wilcoxon nonparametric tests analysis indicated that methane emission rate was greatly influenced by manure piling height and manner.There were no significant relationships between methane emission rates and the temperatures of ambience and heap.However,regression analysis showed that the quadratic equations were found between emission rates of all treatments and the gas temperature in the barrels.     

生物碳的物理结构与化学成分对土壤氧化亚氮排放的影响

为探究生物碳对土壤中重要温室气体氧化亚氮(N2O)排放的影响机制,将生物碳的可溶性化学成分和稳定的物理结构分离后得到浸提液和碳骨架,设置了4种不同的实验处理方式:土壤(对照)、土壤+生物碳、土壤+浸提液、土壤+碳骨架,进行了为期90 d的室内培养试验.实验结果显示,在培养前期(前7 d),添加生物碳和碳骨架的处理都显著抑制了土壤N2O的释放,且抑制程度相似,最高均可达80%,而添加浸提液的处理却显著促进了土壤N2O的释放.因此,土壤添加生物碳后对N2O排放的抑制作用主要归因于生物碳的物理结构,生物碳的物理结构可以有效地提高土壤的pH值、吸附土壤及其自身含有的可能促进N2O释放的化学物质,从而减少土壤中N2O的产生和排放.     

Methane emissions during storage of di erent treatments from cattle manure in Tianjin

Many studies on methane emissions from animal manure have revealed that animal manure is a major source of methane emissions to the atmosphere that can have negative consequences for people, animals and environment. In general, the release of methane can be influenced by the type of feed taken by animals, temperature, manure characteristics and so on. This study aimed at quantifying and comparing methane release from dairy manure with di erent piling treatments. Four treatments were designed including manure piling height 30, 45, 60 cm and adding 6 cm manure every day until the piling height was 60 cm. Static chamber method and gas chromatography were adopted to measure the methane emissions from April to June in 2009. Methane emission rates of all four manure treatments were low in the first week and then increased sharply until reaching the peak values. Subsequently, all the methane emission rates decreased and fluctuated within the steady range till the end of the experiment. Wilcoxon nonparametric tests analysis indicated that methane emission rate was greatly influenced by manure piling height and manner. There were no significant relationships between methane emission rates and the temperatures of ambience and heap. However, regression analysis showed that the quadratic equations were found between emission rates of all treatments and the gas temperature in the barrels.     

膨润土对鸡粪序批式厌氧消化特性的影响

为考察外源添加物——膨润土对鸡粪厌氧消化特性的影响,在中温〔(35±1)℃〕条件下,采用L₈(23)正交试验设计,考察了膨润土添加量(w,以干基计,下同)、鸡粪VS(挥发性固体)添加量、厌氧消化污泥接种量对鸡粪厌氧消化过程中产气、pH、氨氮形态、EC(电导率)等的影响. 结果表明:添加1.5%和3.0%的膨润土均能显著提高鸡粪VS产CH₄量,并且在高鸡粪添加量情况下达到极显著水平(P<0.01);当膨润土添加量为3.0%、厌氧消化污泥接种量为20%时,VS累积产CH₄量达到301.92 mL/g,比对照组(160.76 mL/g)提高了87.80%;当鸡粪VS添加量相同时,添加1.5%和3.0%的膨润土均能极显著地降低消化料液的ρ(TAN)(TAN为总氨氮)(P<0.01),并且可以减少鸡粪厌氧消化过程中ρ(FAN)(FAN为游离氨)的剧烈变化;添加膨润土还能极显著地降低鸡粪厌氧消化料液的EC. 研究显示,添加膨润土有利于缓解鸡粪厌氧消化过程中氨氮抑制,提高系统稳定性,并可显著改善厌氧消化整体性能.      

Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Strategies in Mitigating the Greenhouse Impact of Waste Management in Three Communities of Different Size

Waste management is a significant source of methane (CH₄) emissions. CH₄ is second to carbon dioxide (CO₂) the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. In this article the methodology and results from a study on the reduction potential of alternative waste treatment strategies in mitigating the greenhouse impact are presented. The objective is to provide information to decision makers so that the greenhouse issue can be included in the decision making on waste management strategies. The potential cost-effectiveness of reducing the greenhouse impact of alternative waste treatment strategies in three communities of different size in Finland is assessed. The estimation of the greenhouse impact includes estimates of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the amount of carbon (C) stored at landfills (Csink) and the emission savings that can be achieved by using waste for energy production (assumed decrease in the use of fossil fuels). Landfill gas recovery with energy production was found to be the most-efficient way in reducing the greenhouse impact from large landfills. Burning of all the waste or the combustible fraction in municipal solid waste (MSW) was also an efficient method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially if the energy produced can reduce the burning of fossil fuels. Emissions from transportation of waste are small compared with the emissions from landfills. Even if the transportion mileage is doubled due to increasing separation and recycling the greenhouse impact of transportation would be only 3–4 percent of the impact of landfilling the waste.     

The relative contributions to the greenhouse effect from the use of different fuels

An attempt has been made to assess factors that indicate how various fuels affect the climate. In these factors emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide are weighed together with reference to the direct and indirect effects of these gases on the long wave radiation absorption.The analysis is dependent on the time period that is to be studied. We have carried out calculations both on the basis of the coming 50-year period and on the basis of a period where the greenhouse effect is summed up after the total lifetime of the gases in the atmosphere, i.e. more than 400 years.The analyses show that the results become different according to the time period considered.The uncertainties in the calculations are due to the following:

• •the indirect effects of methane emissions, i.e. ozone formation, are difficult to assess;
• •knowledge about the emissions of methane and nitrous oxide is incomplete;
• •any other secondary effects such as emissions of carbon monoxide and other organic substances, natural and anthropogenic, may be of significance.

In addition, light should be shed on whether the results change significantly if account is also taken of the effects of the gases on the stratosphere, i.e. the depletion of the ozone layer.