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1.
阳离子表面活性剂用量对改性沸石吸附铬酸根的影响   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
用不同量阳离子表面活性剂十六烷基三甲基溴化铵(CTAB)对天然沸石改性,并制备不同改性程度的改性沸石,测定沸石对CTAB的吸附量,比较几种沸石对铬酸根的吸附性能及其与改性沸石胶体Zeta电位的关系,探讨沸石对铬酸根的吸附机制及沸石再生后对铬酸根的吸附能力.结果表明,随着CTAB加入量的增加,它在沸石表面的吸附量显著增加,制备的改性沸石对铬酸根吸附性能显著提高.改性后沸石胶体的Zeta电位由负变正,而且随着CTAB用量的增加,Zeta电位正值增加.铬酸根在改性沸石表面的吸附量随离子强度增加而减小,而且改性沸石吸附的铬酸根大部分可以被中性盐解吸,说明铬酸根的吸附以静电作用机制为主.改性剂用量在0.15~0.3 mol·kg-1范围内,改性沸石再生后仍对铬酸根有很好的吸附性能,可以循环使用.  相似文献   

2.
采用室内培养的方法,通过人为添加不同量的玉米干秸秆和磷,研究不同含磷量土壤对镉吸附解吸影响,以探讨磷—镉在土壤中的交互作用机制。结果表明,不同含磷量的土壤对不同质量浓度锌镉吸附解吸时,在低质量浓度镉(Cd3)条件下,土壤对镉的吸附量随磷质量分数的增加先升高后降低,解吸量随着土壤中磷质量分数的增加先升高后降低再升高;而在高质量浓度镉(Cd30)条件下,土壤对镉的吸附量随磷质量分数的增加逐渐升高,在相同磷水平下,随外加锌质量浓度的增加,镉的吸附量明显降低,而解吸量则逐渐升高。不同秸秆量土壤对不同质量浓度镉吸附解吸时,在Cd3条件下,土壤对镉的吸附量随秸秆加入量的增加先升高后降低,而在同一质量分数磷情况下,吸附量逐渐下降;土壤对镉的解吸量在磷质量分数为120 mg·kg^-1(P2)时最低,而后随着磷质量分数的增加而增加。在同一质量分数磷水平情况下,随着秸秆添加量的增加,土壤对镉的解吸量逐渐增加。而在Cd30条件下,土壤对镉的吸附量逐渐增加,在同一磷水平情况下,土壤对镉的吸附情况是低量秸秆(C1)〉高量秸秆(C2),但在磷质量分数为240 mg·kg^-1(P3)水平下,不添加秸秆(C0)情况时镉的吸附量最大,而后降低。土壤对镉的解吸量随着磷含量的增加而增加。在同一磷水平情况下,随着秸秆添加量的增加,土壤对镉的解吸量逐渐增加。  相似文献   

3.
通过吸附和解吸试验,研究了不同磷吸附量石灰性褐土对锌镉次级吸附和解吸的影响。结果表明,次级吸附锌和镉对不同吸附量磷土壤的磷解吸量随磷吸附量的增加而增加,而磷解吸量随次级吸附后锌、镉浓度的增加而降低,即随锌镉添加量的增加,磷的有效性有所降低。土壤对锌的次级吸附量和吸附率随磷吸附量的增加先降低后升高,并随添加镉浓度的增加而降低,解吸量和解吸率随磷吸附量的增加而增加,说明在正常施磷范围内,增加磷的施用量能提高土壤中锌的有效性,同时,土壤对高浓度锌的次级吸附率小于低浓度锌的次级吸附率,而土壤对高浓度锌的解吸量和解吸率要远大于对浓度锌的解吸量和解吸率;土壤对镉的次级吸附量、吸附率和解吸量、解吸率都随着磷吸附量的增加而增加,且吸附量随添加镉的量增加而增加,但镉次级吸附量和吸附率随添加锌浓度的增加而减小,解吸量和解吸率却增大,说明在磷吸附量相同的条件下,添加锌促进了镉的有效性。  相似文献   

4.
徐仁扣  蔡红涛  肖双成  王强盛 《生态环境》2004,13(4):542-543,552
用一次平衡法研究了CrO4^2-对两种可变电荷土壤吸附钾的影响,用火焰光度法测定平衡溶液中的钾,根据差减法计算土壤对钾的吸附量。结果表明,加入铬酸根能增加土壤对钾的吸附量。铬酸根对钾吸附的影响程度与土壤游离氧化铁含量和土壤对铬酸根的吸附量的大小有关。砖红壤游离氧化铁含量高于红壤,它对铬酸根的吸附量也大于红壤,因此,铬酸根对砖红壤吸附钾的影响程度大于红壤。CrO4^2-主要通过自身的吸附增加土壤的表面净负电荷,并从而增加土壤对钾的吸附量。  相似文献   

5.
以自然土壤灰钙土和风沙土作为试验供试土壤,研究了Zn在两种土壤样品中的吸附-解吸特性.结果表明:(1)当平衡液中Zn浓度较低时,土壤对Zn的吸附量随浓度的增加而增加,但增加速度较慢;平衡液中Zn浓度继续增加时,吸附量增加速率变大(曲线斜率逐渐增大),由于灰钙土有机质、碳酸钙、p H等高于风沙土,所以灰钙土对Zn的吸附量大于风沙土;(2)在实验设定的浓度范围内,Langmuir模型、Freundlich模型对实验数据的拟合线性相关均极显著,但总体来看Freundlich型吸附等温线方程适合描述土壤对Zn吸附过程;(3)两种土壤的高碳酸钙及有机质含量导致土壤吸附的Zn不容易被解吸,所以两种土壤的解吸量都很少,且灰钙土p H(8.65)大于风沙土(8.17),则风沙土解吸量大于灰钙土,土壤吸附Zn的解吸率与土壤Zn吸附能力呈反比,Zn在风沙土中的解吸率比灰钙土大,所以Zn在沙土的迁移和扩散的风险比灰钙土大,二次函数最为适合模拟土壤中Zn的吸附量与解吸量之间的关系,且随着Zn吸附量的增大,两种土壤对重金属Zn的解吸率均呈现出先增大后减小的趋势.  相似文献   

6.
《环境化学》2012,31(6)
通过室内培养和吸附-解吸实验,研究了不同柠檬酸含量土壤对Cu2+、Cd2+吸附-解吸的影响.结果表明,土壤对Cu2+的吸附量随加入柠檬酸量的增加而明显增加,达到峰值后(柠檬酸含量为0.5 mmol.kg-1),吸附量随柠檬酸含量的增加而下降,即Cu2+的吸附曲线呈峰型.在低柠檬酸含量时,土壤对Cu2+的吸附量受Cd2+浓度影响较小,但随柠檬酸含量的增加,在低铜浓度处理(Cu2+浓度为600 mg·L-1,Cu600)下,土壤对Cu2+的吸附量随Cd2+浓度的增大而增大,但在高浓度铜处理(Cu2+浓度为1000 mg·L-1,Cu1000)下,土壤对Cu2+的吸附量随Cd2+浓度的增加而减少.Cu2+的解吸量随柠檬酸含量的增加而总体上降低;相同柠檬酸含量下,Cu600处理下,Cd2+浓度为10 mg·L-1(Cd10)条件下Cu2+解吸量明显低于无Cd2+(Cd0)和Cd2+浓度为1 mg·L-1(Cd1)条件下.而Cu1000处理下,Cd2+的浓度对Cu2+解吸量的影响较小.Cd2+吸附量随柠檬酸含量的增加无明显变化,但随Cu2+浓度的增加下降明显,其中无Cu2+处理Cd2+吸附量极显著地高于Cu600和Cu1000处理,而Cu600和Cu1000处理间差异不显著,且土壤对Cd2+的吸附随镉添加量增加而增加;Cd2+的解吸量随柠檬酸含量的增加先增大后保持稳定,在柠檬酸含量为0.5 mmol.kg-1时达到最大,Cu600处理的Cd2+的解吸量显著地高于Cu1000处理.  相似文献   

7.
通过室内培养和吸附-解吸实验,研究了不同柠檬酸含量土壤对Cu2+、Cd2+吸附-解吸的影响.结果表明,土壤对Cu2+的吸附量随加入柠檬酸量的增加而明显增加,达到峰值后(柠檬酸含量为0.5 mmol.kg-1),吸附量随柠檬酸含量的增加而下降,即Cu2+的吸附曲线呈峰型.在低柠檬酸含量时,土壤对Cu2+的吸附量受Cd2+浓度影响较小,但随柠檬酸含量的增加,在低铜浓度处理(Cu2+浓度为600 mg·L-1,Cu600)下,土壤对Cu2+的吸附量随Cd2+浓度的增大而增大,但在高浓度铜处理(Cu2+浓度为1000 mg·L-1,Cu1000)下,土壤对Cu2+的吸附量随Cd2+浓度的增加而减少.Cu2+的解吸量随柠檬酸含量的增加而总体上降低;相同柠檬酸含量下,Cu600处理下,Cd2+浓度为10 mg·L-1(Cd10)条件下Cu2+解吸量明显低于无Cd2+(Cd0)和Cd2+浓度为1 mg·L-1(Cd1)条件下.而Cu1000处理下,Cd2+的浓度对Cu2+解吸量的影响较小.Cd2+吸附量随柠檬酸含量的增加无明显变化,但随Cu2+浓度的增加下降明显,其中无Cu2+处理Cd2+吸附量极显著地高于Cu600和Cu1000处理,而Cu600和Cu1000处理间差异不显著,且土壤对Cd2+的吸附随镉添加量增加而增加;Cd2+的解吸量随柠檬酸含量的增加先增大后保持稳定,在柠檬酸含量为0.5 mmol.kg-1时达到最大,Cu600处理的Cd2+的解吸量显著地高于Cu1000处理.  相似文献   

8.
Cd、Pb在根际与非根际土壤中的吸附解吸特点   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
李瑛  张桂银  李洁  魏静 《生态环境》2005,14(2):208-210
采用根袋盆栽试验以及平衡法研究根际与非根际土壤对镉、铅的吸附-解吸特性。结果表明,在镉、铅起始浓度分别为Cd 0-0.6mmol/L和Pb0~1mmol/L条件下,根际与非根际土壤镉、铅吸附量差别不大,随镉、铅浓度的提高,根际土壤镉、铅吸附量均比相应的非根际土壤的高。根际与非根际土壤镉、铅解吸量随镉、铅吸附量的增加而增加,但铅解吸率(0.7%以下)明显比镉的(5%-10%)低,根际土壤镉解吸量比非根际土壤的低。  相似文献   

9.
高pH值是宁夏引黄灌区盐碱化土壤的显著特征,研究盐碱化土壤的高pH值对不同重金属元素的富集和释放规律,可为宁夏引黄灌区盐碱化土壤重金属污染的控制及治理提供科学依据。通过调节pH值,采用土柱淋溶的方法,模拟盐碱化土壤的Cd和Pb的吸附-解吸过程,研究pH对盐碱化土壤重金属Cd、Pb吸附-解吸特征、形态和生物活性的影响。结果表明:在试验设定的pH范围内,盐碱化土壤对Cd的吸附量随着pH值的升高而呈升高趋势,在pH值为8时达到峰值,对Pb的吸附量随pH的升高呈波动状变化状态,在pH值为10时达到峰值;同时,Cd的解吸量随吸附量增加而线性增大,解吸量随pH升高而增加,但解吸量随吸附量变化而变化的幅度随pH值的升高而减小,Pb的解吸量随吸附量增加而呈选择性增加。随着pH的升高,Cd可交换态和碳酸盐结合态的含量变化趋势相反,生物活性基本不变,其Fe/Mn氧化物结合态、有机结合态和残渣态的含量不变;Pb可交换态和碳酸盐结合态的含量随着pH的升高而升高,生物活性增强,有机结合态的含量减少,Fe/Mn氧化物结合态和残渣态的含量不变。宁夏引黄灌区盐碱化土壤的高pH值可以降低土壤对重金属Cd、Pb的吸附,缓解重金属污染引起的生态、粮食及其食品安全压力。  相似文献   

10.
菜园土壤铜吸附—解吸特性的研究   总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8  
研究了菜园土壤铜的吸附-解吸特性。结果表明,3种菜园土壤吸附Cu^2+的量均随平衡液中Cu^2+浓度的增加而增大,可用Langmuir方程和Freundlich方程来描述,由Langmuir方程求得的菜园土壤对Cu^2+的最大吸附量和最大缓冲容量的大小顺序为:黄松土〉江涂土〉粉泥土,菜园土壤对Cu^2+的解吸量和解吸率均随其吸附量的增加而增加,吸附量与解吸量之间呈显著或极显著线性正相关。  相似文献   

11.
Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación  相似文献   

12.
Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.  相似文献   

13.
Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.  相似文献   

14.
Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.  相似文献   

15.
Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.  相似文献   

16.
Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km2 around Bonga and 3000 km2 in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques  相似文献   

17.
As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland where cashmere‐producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis. In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3‐fold increase in local profits for herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica).That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4‐fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur)in trans‐Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China's Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard(Panthera uncia), khulan(Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic‐level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere. Globalización del Mercado de Cachemira y la Declinación de Mamíferos Mayores en Asia Central  相似文献   

18.
The high conservational value of the lichen-rich vegetation and landscape of the marine foreland Ørkenen on the isle of Anholt is treated from a Danish as well as a European perspective. The sensitivity of the lichen-rich vegetation to physical disturbance is emphasized. The impact of invasive species such asPinus mugo as well as the effect of atmospheric deposition of nutrients on the heaths at Anholt is described. Considerations related to the development of a management plan for Ørkenen are presented.  相似文献   

19.
Summary The attraction of Old World leaf beetles in the genusAulacophora to kairomones and parakairomones which are effective lures for New WorldDiabrotica andAcalymma were investigated. Beetles captured on sticky traps baited with single and multicomponent lures were no different from the control traps for two species ofAulacophora. Yellow colored traps and squash blossoms are attractive toAulacophora beetles which detect sub-microgram quantities of cucurbitacins on silica gel. Leaf feeding behavior and flight activity data are correlated with varietal preference of threeAulacophora species. The common response byDiabrotica andAulacophora to cucurbitacins reinforces the two groups' coevolutionary association with the Cucurbitaceae. The apparent lack of a common response toCucurbita blossom volatiles suggests recent evolutionary pathways are substantially different for these two groups of beetles.  相似文献   

20.
Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.  相似文献   

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