中国沿海水生生物污染数据集及食用水产品的健康危害评估

沿海区域是污染物的汇集区域,污染物的生态风险和健康危害广受关注.亟需开展污染物的监测,评估污染的生态风险.已有研究提供了不同水域不同水生生物中各类污染物的含量数据,但尚缺乏系统的沿海区域生物体污染物含量的数据集,无法为沿海区域生态风险及其人体健康危害评估提供数据支撑.本研究通过CNKI、Web of Science和PubMed数据库,搜集了2000—2019年间沿海区域物种-污染物含量相关文献的数据,建立了中国沿海水生生物污染数据集.进一步提取了常见软体动物和鱼类的重金属含量数据,运用靶标危害系数(target hazard quotients,THQ)模型进行了食用危害评估.结果显示,中国沿海区域软体动物中的8种重金属平均浓度从高到低依次为锌(317.939 mg·kg-1)、铜(87.792 mg·kg-1)、铅(14.428 mg·kg-1)、铬(11.459 mg·kg-1)、锰(5.384 mg·kg-1)、砷(1.332 mg·kg-1)、镍(1.011 mg·kg-1)和汞(0.384 mg·kg-1).而鱼类中这8种重金属的平均浓度梯度为锌(172.025 mg·kg-1)、铜(11.637 mg·kg-1)、铅(9.604 mg·kg-1)、锰(1.808 mg·kg-1)、镍(1.573 mg·kg-1)、砷(0.802 mg·kg-1)、铬(0.546 mg·kg-1)和汞(0.023 mg·kg-1).THQ模型预测结果表明,重金属并不会对成人产生健康影响,唯一例外的是,砷元素污染可能会对儿童产生潜在的健康危害.综上,本数据集提供了中国沿海区域物种的污染物含量数据,为污染物引起的人体健康危害评价提供了数据支撑.     

成都平原表层水稻土重金属污染健康风险分析

采样分析了成都平原表层水稻土(0—20 cm)中As、Cd、Cr、Hg、Pb、Cu、Zn含量,参照国家土壤环境质量标准和土壤背景值,并利用健康风险评价模型对土壤重金属环境质量状况和人体健康风险进行了评价.结果表明,成都平原水稻土表层7种重金属平均含量分别为As:9.69 mg·kg-1、Cd:0.12 mg·kg-1、Cr:79.5 mg·kg-1、Hg:0.04 mg·kg-1、Pb:47.5 mg·kg-1、Cu:29.3 mg·kg-1、Zn:81.7 mg·kg-1.与成都地区土壤背景值相比,As、Cr、Pb、Cu、Zn在表层水稻土中有明显积累,部分样区土壤重金属超过《土壤环境质量标准》(GB15618—1995)标准值的二级标准,存在外源污染输入,但污染程度较轻.人体健康风险分析结果表明,经土壤-口接触行为摄入是该区域人体重金属暴露风险的主要途径,重金属致癌风险AsCd,非致癌总风险CrCuHgPbZn,无论儿童还是成人,重金属致癌风险值和非致癌风险值均低于风险阈值,风险值均在可接受水平内,但儿童健康风险值高于成人,应加强监管.     

九龙江河口潮间带表层沉积物汞污染分布、赋存形态与生态风险

研究九龙江河口汞污染情况可为该地区汞污染防治提供科学依据,测定九龙江河口潮间带表层沉积物中总汞含量及不同形态汞的含量,分析了汞的分布特征、赋存形态及生物有效性和潜在生态风险。结果表明:九龙江河口潮间带表层沉积物中总汞含量范围0.112~0.259 mg·kg-1,平均值0.172 mg·kg-1,部分采样点汞含量超过中国海洋沉积物质量第一类标准限值(0.20 mg·kg-1);沉积物中各形态汞平均比例顺序:残渣态(61.8%)可氧化态(27.8%)弱酸溶态(7.8%)可还原态(2.6%),可提取态占有相当的比例,对水体汞污染具有一定贡献。潜在生态风险指数法评价结果可知,该河口区潮间带沉积物中汞污染程度和生态风险程度均为中等~较高水平,需对汞污染进行综合防治。     

北江表层沉积物中铊污染的生态风险

为了解珠江水系北江流域表层沉积物中铊的含量,并在此基础上评价珠江流域北江铊污染现状及其生态风险,该研究于2006年采集了广东省北江韶关至清远段的沉积物样品,采用混酸消解后,使用ICP-MS测定了沉积物中铊的含量,应用潜在生态危害指数对北江的铊污染和生态危害进行评价.结果表明,珠江水系北江河段沉积物已达到了较高的铊污染水平,对周围环境存在着较高的铊生态风险.北江干流沉积物中的铊质量浓度范围为0.92 ~ 2.32 mg·kg-1,平均值为1.70 mg·kg-1;各支流沉积物中铊质量浓度范围为1.02 ~ 3.22 mg·kg-1.个别采样点,特别是接近韶关冶炼厂排放口附近沉积物中铊的含量达到7.78 mg·kg-1,具有极高的铊生态风险.对于北江各支流,铊的污染程度与潜在生态风险程度由高到低的排序为马坝河>武江>浈江>滨江>龙塘河,其中马坝河沉积物铊存在高度的生态风险.     

污染水体中鱼体内三聚氰胺的累积及其在清洁水体中的消除

以吉富罗非鱼（Oreochromis niloticus）为受试动物,在室内用水族箱进行模拟养殖试验,设定污染水体中三聚氰胺初始浓度为0.2 g·L-1,考察罗非鱼在其中饲养1周期间体内三聚氰胺的累积情况。再将鱼转移至不含三聚氰胺的清洁水体中饲养1周,考察鱼体内三聚氰胺在其中的消除情况。结果表明,三聚氰胺能在鱼体内迅速富集,鱼肉及内脏中三聚氰胺的含量均与鱼在污染水体中暴露的时间成正相关。其中,鱼肉中三聚氰胺的浓度几乎成线性增大,拟合所得方程为y=5.598 8x＋12.897,相关系数为0.995 9。内脏对三聚氰胺的富集速率先快后慢,且其中三聚氰胺的浓度为鱼肉的2~3倍。在试验后期,鱼肉及内脏中三聚氰胺的浓度分别高达51.55 mg·kg-1和93.89 mg·kg-1,此时罗非鱼表现出明显的中毒迹象。将罗非鱼转移至清洁水体中养殖后,鱼肉及内脏中三聚氰胺的残留量均迅速下降,尤其是后者的消除速度甚快,一周后两者的浓度分别降至0.13 mg·kg-1和0.21 mg·kg-1。此时,罗非鱼中毒症状逐渐消失,活动趋向正常。     

环丙沙星在模拟水生态系统中的动态研究

利用高效液相色谱法对环丙沙星(CPFX)在微宇宙模拟水生态系统中的归趋,包括CPFX在水体、沉积物、生物体[皇冠草(Echinodorus amazonicus)、河蚬(Corbicula fluminea)、异育银鲫(Carassius auratus gibelio)]等不同分配相及生物体不同组织中的动态变化过程进行了研究.结果表明:在模拟水生态系统中加入500.00 μg·L-1 CPFX后,药物部分被水生生物所吸收,部分沉降进入底泥中.在各相中的CPFX残留量随时间不断变化,1 d内水体中药物含量降至15.30 μg·L-1,而底泥中药物含量升至385.57 μg·kg-1.CPFX不同程度地富集和残留于水生生物体中,皇冠草对CPFX的吸收量大,尤其是叶片部分1 d内含量高达795.43 μg·kg-1,随后逐步降低;河蚬、异育银鲫对CPFX有明显的吸收积累,并且在体内的残留时间可长达45 d,不同组织对CPFX的吸收积累存在明显差异,在内脏中的积累量比肌肉组织高.不同生物体中CPFX的分布和富集存在着较大差异,其趋势为皇冠草＞河蚬＞异育银鲫.     

溢油污染物在栉孔扇贝不同组织的富集特异性及生物放大效应的初步研究

本文采用半静态暴露实验法,研究了栉孔扇贝(Chlamys farreri)的不同组织对船舶常用燃料油0#柴油分散液和乳化液的富集及其在食物链传递过程中的生物放大效应。结果表明:(1)在不同浓度柴油分散液和柴油乳化液中,扇贝暴露8 d后不同软组织对柴油的生物富集系数BCF均表现为鳃(889.40～127.92 mL·g~(-1)、830.80～123.43 mL·g~(-1))内脏团(293.80～58.46 mL·g~(-1)、184.00～130.53 mL·g~(-1))肌肉(147.60～39.68 mL·g~(-1)、149.80～62.40 mL·g~(-1)),腮和内脏对石油的富集能力强于肌肉,各组织对柴油分散液的富集能力强于柴油乳化液;(2)用石油烃(TPH)浓度分别为1.74×10~(-10)mg·cell~(-1)、4.44×10~(-10)mg·cell~(-1)的三角褐指藻(Phaeodactylum tricornutum Bohlin)喂养扇贝后,扇贝体内石油烃(TPH)浓度随时间的延长和藻体浓度的上升都表现出增加的趋势,到第8天实验结束时扇贝体内TPH浓度达到7.79 mg·kg~(-1)和9.61 mg·kg~(-1),表明TPH通过浮游植物的摄食在扇贝体内造成累积,通过食物链进行了传递。     

珠江口水、沉积物及生物体As含量分布特征及生态风险评价

于2008年2、5、8及11月对珠江口进行了水、沉积物和生物体As含量的调查,分析其分布特征以及进行生态评价。结果表明：珠江口水体中As含量平均值为2.88μg·L-1,符合一类海水水质标准;其中,11月份显著高于其它3个月份(P <0.05)。全年珠江口水体八个河口在地域分布上As平均含量由高到低依次为：虎门、鸡啼门、磨刀门、崖门、洪沥门、蕉门、横门、虎跳门。表层沉积物As含量平均值为38.73 mg·kg-1,沉积物中As含量均超过海洋沉积物质量一类标准,但均未超三类标准。结果显示,表层沉积物横门含量最高,为(70.5±2.0) mg·kg-1,显著高于其它7个口门(P <0.05),而其它7个口门差异不显著。各口门含量从大到小依次为横门、洪沥门、鸡啼门、虎门、崖门、磨刀门、虎跳门、蕉门。表层沉积物地质累积指数评价结果与潜在生态风险系数评价结果一致,横门为中等污染水平,其余站点均为低污染水平。采集代表性生物样品,其中11种鱼类As平均含量为0.587 mg·kg-1,部分受检鱼类超出水产品中有毒有害物质限量要求,超标率为37.8%,肉食性鱼类平均含量要略低于杂食性鱼类,但不同食性和不同生活水层的鱼类As含量差异不显著(P >0.05)。受检生物样品虾的含量为0.314 mg·kg-1,符合水产品中有毒有害物质限量要求。与历年比较发现珠江口水、沉积物和生物体中As含量有上升的趋势,与其它河口相比较发现珠江口As污染在对比的河口和海湾中受污染程度较高。     

沉积物中有机污染物的生物可利用性的化学测量方法

准确测定疏水性有机污染物(HOCs)的生物可利用性对于评估沉积物生态毒性风险,实施沉积物污染修复极其重要.在研究生物可利用性的理论机制的同时,不少工作也从实践上探索测定生物可利用性的快速有效方法.传统的沉积物生态风险评估,常常运用沉积物中HOCs的有机碳标准化浓度来表征该污染物在生物体内的蓄积量及其对生物体     

洞庭湖湘江入湖口至出湖口水域表层沉积物中重金属时空分布特征与生态风险

基于2007—2012年连续对洞庭湖湘江入湖口至出湖口水域5个采样点的表层沉积物中Cd、Hg、As、Cu、Pb、Cr和Zn等7种重金属含量分析,对该水域表层沉积物中重金属的时空分布特征进行了探讨,并采用沉积物质量基准法对其生态风险进行了评价.结果表明,Cd、Hg、As、Cu、Pb、Cr和Zn的含量分别为0.54—79.90 mg·kg-1、0.046—0.712 mg·kg-1、15.2—289.0 mg·kg-1、29.0—217.0 mg·kg-1、6.0—246.0 mg·kg-1、65.4—269.0 mg·kg-1和41.4—632.0 mg·kg-1,其大小顺序为ZnCrPbCuAsCdHg;Cd、Hg、As、Cu、Pb和Zn含量沿程总体呈"V"形变化趋势,Cr含量沿程变化较小,重金属含量年际变化较为稳定;As具有较高生态风险,其余污染物具有较低生态风险,不同污染物生态风险的大小顺序为AsCdCrCuPbZnHg,S1和S3具有较高生态风险,其余点位具有较低生态风险,不同点位生态风险的大小顺序为S1S3S5S2S4.     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity

Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km² around Bonga and 3000 km² in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques     

What Every Conservation Biologist Should Know about Economic Theory

Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.     

Globalization of the Cashmere Market and the Decline of Large Mammals in Central Asia

As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland where cashmere‐producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis. In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3‐fold increase in local profits for herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica).That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4‐fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur)in trans‐Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China's Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard(Panthera uncia), khulan(Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic‐level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere. Globalización del Mercado de Cachemira y la Declinación de Mamíferos Mayores en Asia Central     

The lichen-rich coastal heath vegetation on the isle of Anholt, Denmark — conservation and management

The high conservational value of the lichen-rich vegetation and landscape of the marine foreland Ørkenen on the isle of Anholt is treated from a Danish as well as a European perspective. The sensitivity of the lichen-rich vegetation to physical disturbance is emphasized. The impact of invasive species such asPinus mugo as well as the effect of atmospheric deposition of nutrients on the heaths at Anholt is described. Considerations related to the development of a management plan for Ørkenen are presented.     

Behavior and ecology of Old World Luperini beetles of the genusAulacophora (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Summary The attraction of Old World leaf beetles in the genusAulacophora to kairomones and parakairomones which are effective lures for New WorldDiabrotica andAcalymma were investigated. Beetles captured on sticky traps baited with single and multicomponent lures were no different from the control traps for two species ofAulacophora. Yellow colored traps and squash blossoms are attractive toAulacophora beetles which detect sub-microgram quantities of cucurbitacins on silica gel. Leaf feeding behavior and flight activity data are correlated with varietal preference of threeAulacophora species. The common response byDiabrotica andAulacophora to cucurbitacins reinforces the two groups' coevolutionary association with the Cucurbitaceae. The apparent lack of a common response toCucurbita blossom volatiles suggests recent evolutionary pathways are substantially different for these two groups of beetles.     

Use of stochastic patch occupancy models in the California red-legged frog for Bayesian inference regarding past events and future persistence

Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.