低浓度铅暴露对鲫鱼肝脏抗氧化系统的影响

研究了鲫鱼幼体 (Carassiusauratus)在低浓度铅的长期 ( 4 0d)暴露实验中 ,鲫鱼抗氧化系统所产生的生理生化反应 .结果表明 ,在本实验的剂量范围内 ,铅对鲫鱼肝脏内过氧化氢酶 (CAT)、超氧化物歧化酶 (SOD)的活性 (在暴露浓度达到 0 2mg·l- 1时 )表现为诱导作用 ;而铅对谷胱甘肽硫转移酶 (GST)、谷胱甘肽过氧化物酶 (GSH Px)的活性在低浓度时 ( 0 0 1mg·l- 1)被抑制 ,其中暴露浓度在 0 2mg·l- 1时GSH Px被进一步抑制 .在实验范围内 ,GSH含量无明显变化 .另外 ,对于低浓度铅的长期暴露 ,鲫鱼肝脏中的GST和GSH Px较CAT和SOD敏感 ,可考虑作为水生生态系统中铅低浓度长期暴露的一种生物检测指标 .     

邻苯二甲酸二丁酯（DBP）对斜生栅藻的致毒效应研究

为了评估邻苯二甲酸二丁酯(DBP)对水生生物的毒性效应,采用室内培养的方法,研究了DBP对斜生栅藻(Scenedesmus obliquus)的急性毒性效应.实验设置5个暴露组(5、10、20、50、100mg·L-1)和1个对照组(0mg·L-1),暴露96h后分别测定DBP对斜生栅藻生长量、光合色素含量、超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)活性、丙二醛(MDA)含量等生理生化指标的影响.结果表明,各暴露组DBP对斜生栅藻的生长均有抑制作用,随DBP暴露浓度的增大,藻细胞密度逐渐降低,显示出明显的剂量-效应关系.DBP对斜生栅藻的24、48、72、96h的EC50值分别为3.31、15.49、1.95、2.21mg·L-1.叶绿素a、b及类胡萝卜素含量随着DBP暴露浓度的增大呈现相同的变化趋势,均为低浓度(5～10mg·L-1)上升,高浓度(10～100mg·L-1)下降.随DBP暴露浓度的增大,斜生栅藻SOD活性表现为先激活后抑制,在20mg·L-1时SOD活性达到最大值(与对照比较,p<0.05);当DBP暴露浓度≥10mg·L-1时,MDA含量随DBP浓度的增大显著增加(与对照比较,p<0.05,p<0.01).     

低浓度五氯酚暴露对稀有鮈鲫体内SOD活性、GSH和HSP70含量的影响

为筛选检测低浓度五氯酚(PCP)对水生生物毒性效应较敏感的指标,将稀有鮈鲫(Gobiocypris rarus)暴露于浓度分别为0.5、1.5、5.0、15和50μg·L-1的PCP中2、7、14、21d,同时设乙醇对照组,检测稀有鮈鲫体内(整体匀浆)超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)活性、谷胱甘肽(GSH)、热激蛋白70(HSP70)含量等生化指标.结果表明,相同暴露时间下,随着PCP暴露浓度的升高,SOD活性均表现为先抑制后激活趋势,GSH和HSP70含量无明显变化;相同暴露浓度下,随着PCP暴露时间的延长,SOD活性均表现为先激活后抑制趋势,GSH和HSP70含量无明显变化.初步认定相对于GSH、HSP70含量,SOD活性的变化可以更有效地反映低浓度PCP对稀有鮈鲫的毒性效应.     

全氟辛烷磺酸盐(PFOS)胁迫对翡翠贻贝抗氧化酶的影响

为了解全氟辛烷磺酸盐(PFOS)对海洋贝类抗氧化防御系统的毒性效应及致毒机理,在实验室条件下研究了PFOS对翡翠贻贝的96h急性毒性,同时探讨PFOS胁迫和净水恢复过程中翡翠贻贝外套膜和内脏团组织中抗氧化指标(SOD活性、GSH和MDA含量)的变化。结果显示,PFOS对翡翠贻贝的96h半致死浓度(LC50)为68.3mg·L-1,安全浓度为6.83mg·L-1。在PFOS胁迫阶段,1mg·L-1浓度组外套膜SOD活性显著性升高(p<0.05),内脏团SOD酶活性显著降低(p<0.05);而PFOS浓度高于1mg·L-1时,外套膜SOD活性显著性降低(p<0.05),内脏团SOD活性显著升高(p<0.05)。PFOS胁迫对翡翠贻贝外套膜和内脏团中GSH含量均有显著的诱导作用(p<0.05),PFOS胁迫15d后各浓度组GSH含量均受到显著的抑制(p<0.05)。翡翠贻贝外套膜MDA含量受PFOS胁迫后显著升高(p<0.05),内脏团MDA含量的变化呈先降低、后升高的规律。净水释放阶段,翡翠贻贝两组织中SOD活性在释放7d后均恢复至对照组水平,GSH含量和MDA含量呈显著升高的趋势(p<0.05)。研究结果表明,PFOS暴露能够引起翡翠贻贝外套膜和内脏团氧化胁迫,但这种损伤的效果不明显,释放短时间后即可自我恢复。     

水体中石油污染土壤对鲫鱼及其肝脏抗氧化系统的毒性效应（The Toxicity of Oil Polluted Soil in Aquatic Environment on Carassius auratus and Its Hepatic Antioxidant Defense System）

在室内模拟条件下,研究了水体中不同浓度石油污染土壤暴露20d对鲫鱼(Carassius auratus)幼体死亡率和肝脏抗氧化系统的影响.结果表明,鲫鱼死亡率随其暴露浓度的变化明显分为3个部分:低浓度(0.5～5.0g·L-1)摄食死亡,中等浓度(5.0～25.0g·L-1)吸收死亡,高浓度(25.0～50.0g·L-1)胁迫死亡.1.0g·L-1浓度组死亡率最高,死亡速率最快;50.0g·L-1浓度组在暴露后期死亡速率迅速升高.鲫鱼肝脏中谷胱甘肽硫转移酶(GST)、过氧化氢酶(CAT)和超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)的活性可被显著诱导,具体表现为:在所设浓度范围内,幼体鲫鱼肝脏GST活性均受到显著激活,0.5g·L-1浓度下,GST活性被最大程度诱导,达到对照组的606%;SOD活性先升高后降低,10.0g·L-1时酶活性最强,50.0g·L-1浓度下活性被显著抑制;CAT活性于0.5g·L-1就被显著诱导,2.5g·L-1浓度是对照组的4.86倍.可以认为,鲫鱼肝脏SOD和CAT,尤其GST活性对水体中石油污染土壤较敏感,均可作为水生生态系统中石油污染存在的早期检测指标.     

纳米ZnO对鲫鱼肝脏的毒性(Toxicity of Nano-ZnO on Liver of Goldfish（Carassius auratus） )

鲫鱼（Carassius auratus）腹腔注射不同浓度纳米ZnO（5mg·kg-1、12.5mg·kg-1、25mg·kg-1、50mg·kg-1和125mg·kg-1,以鲫鱼体重计）14d后,研究了鲫鱼肝脏中的自由基（ROS）强度变化、氧化应激反应及其毒性机制. 结果表明：纳米ZnO显著诱导鲫鱼肝脏自由基产生;自由基信号强度和脂质过氧化物（MDA）随纳米ZnO浓度的升高呈先升高后降低趋势;而还原型谷胱甘肽（GSH）含量和GSH/GSSG随纳米ZnO浓度的升高呈先降低后升高趋势;纳米ZnO的毒性主要表现在引起鲫鱼肝脏氧化损伤,其毒性机制为诱导鲫鱼肝脏产生活性氧自由基.     

纳米ZnO对鲫鱼肝脏的毒性

鲫鱼(Carassius auratus)腹腔注射不同浓度纳米ZnO(5mg·kg-1、12.5mg·kg-1、25mg·kg-1、50mg·kg-1和125mg·kg-1,以鲫鱼体重计)14d后,研究了鲫鱼肝脏中的自由基(ROS)强度变化、氧化应激反应及其毒性机制.结果表明:纳米ZnO显著诱导鲫鱼肝脏自由基产生;自由基信号强度和脂质过氧化物(MDA)随纳米ZnO浓度的升高呈先升高后降低趋势;而还原型谷胱甘肽(GSH)含量和GSH/GSSG随纳米ZnO浓度的升高呈先降低后升高趋势;纳米ZnO的毒性主要表现在引起鲫鱼肝脏氧化损伤,其毒性机制为诱导鲫鱼肝脏产生活性氧自由基.     

HgCl2对斜生栅藻（Scenedesmus obliquus）生理生化特性的影响(Effects of HgCl2 on Physiological and Biochemical Characteristics of Scenedesmus obliquus)

为探讨汞对藻类的毒性效应,以斜生栅藻(Scenedesmus obliquus)为实验材料,检测了HgCl2对藻细胞数目、光合色素含量、超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)活性、丙二醛(MDA)含量等生化指标的影响.结果表明,各暴露组(0.2～1.5mg·L-1)HgCl2对斜生栅藻的生长均有抑制作用,随HgCl2暴露浓度的增大,藻细胞密度逐渐降低,HgCl2对斜生栅藻的48、72、96hEC50值分别为1.194、1.113、0.986mg·L-1.随着HgCl2暴露浓度的升高(0.01～1.5mg·L-1),叶绿素a、b及类胡萝卜素等光合色素含量均呈逐渐降低趋势;SOD活性表现为先激活后抑制;MDA含量则显著增加(p<0.05,p<0.01).     

氟对中华圆田螺肝胰脏抗氧化酶和MDA的影响

选取中华圆田螺为受试动物，探究氟对其肝胰脏抗氧化酶SOD、GSH、POD活性和丙二醛MDA含量的影响。结果显示，在不同浓度水氟环境条件下(0、40、80、160 mg·L-1)连续暴露10 d、20 d和30 d时，与对照组相比，中华圆田螺肝胰脏SOD活性在暴露前20 d，中低浓度组活性被诱导升高，高浓度组受抑制降低。暴露30 d时，中低浓度组活性降低，高浓度组逐渐升高。MDA活性在暴露前20 d时，中低浓度组活性整体被诱导升高，高浓度组受抑制降低。暴露30 d时，活性受到显著抑制均低于对照组。GSH活性以诱导为主均高于对照组，POD活性在10 d时均低于对照组，而在20 d时被诱导升高且均高于对照组，30 d时中高浓度以抑制为主。上述研究结果为水质污染控制及生态风险评价提供了基础数据。     

内分泌干扰物莠去津对鲫鱼血清激素的影响

为了研究低剂量条件下,内分泌干扰物莠去津对鲫鱼血清激素的影响,探讨其作用机理和剂量-效应关系,同时筛选出敏感的生物标志物,实验以除草剂莠去津对鲫鱼进行低剂量染毒(染毒浓度0～3mg·L-1),采用放射免疫法测定莠去津长期暴露下(60d)幼年雄性鲫鱼血清中性激素(17β-雌二醇(E2)、睾酮(T))及甲状腺激素(促甲状腺激素(TSH)、三碘甲状腺原氨酸(T3))的浓度,并将测定结果与空白对照及溶剂对照进行比较.结果发现:1)莠去津长期暴露下,各处理组鲫鱼血清E2浓度普遍升高,0.023、0.094、1.500、3.000mg·L-1组与空白对照相比,升高显著(p<0.05);2)各处理组鲫鱼血清T浓度与空白对照相比均无显著性差异(p>0.05);3)莠去津长期暴露下,低浓度莠去津组(0.006、0.023mg·L-1组)鲫鱼血清TSH浓度与空白对照相比差异不显著(p>0.05),而高浓度莠去津组(0.094、1.500、3.000mg·L-1组)则显著降低(p<0.05);4)类似地,莠去津长期暴露下,低浓度莠去津组(0.006、0.023、0.094、0.375、1.500mg·L-1组)鲫鱼血清T3浓度与空白对照相比差异不显著(p>0.05),只有高浓度莠去津组(3.000mg·L-1组)显著升高(p<0.05).实验结果表明,低剂量长期暴露下,莠去津对鲫鱼体内性激素及甲状腺激素具有一定的干扰作用,尤其是对17β-雌二醇影响更为显著,因此,17β-雌二醇可作为评价农药内分泌干扰效应的生物标志物.     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity

Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km² around Bonga and 3000 km² in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques     

What Every Conservation Biologist Should Know about Economic Theory

Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.     

Globalization of the Cashmere Market and the Decline of Large Mammals in Central Asia

As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland where cashmere‐producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis. In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3‐fold increase in local profits for herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica).That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4‐fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur)in trans‐Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China's Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard(Panthera uncia), khulan(Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic‐level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere. Globalización del Mercado de Cachemira y la Declinación de Mamíferos Mayores en Asia Central     

The lichen-rich coastal heath vegetation on the isle of Anholt, Denmark — conservation and management

The high conservational value of the lichen-rich vegetation and landscape of the marine foreland Ørkenen on the isle of Anholt is treated from a Danish as well as a European perspective. The sensitivity of the lichen-rich vegetation to physical disturbance is emphasized. The impact of invasive species such asPinus mugo as well as the effect of atmospheric deposition of nutrients on the heaths at Anholt is described. Considerations related to the development of a management plan for Ørkenen are presented.     

Behavior and ecology of Old World Luperini beetles of the genusAulacophora (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Summary The attraction of Old World leaf beetles in the genusAulacophora to kairomones and parakairomones which are effective lures for New WorldDiabrotica andAcalymma were investigated. Beetles captured on sticky traps baited with single and multicomponent lures were no different from the control traps for two species ofAulacophora. Yellow colored traps and squash blossoms are attractive toAulacophora beetles which detect sub-microgram quantities of cucurbitacins on silica gel. Leaf feeding behavior and flight activity data are correlated with varietal preference of threeAulacophora species. The common response byDiabrotica andAulacophora to cucurbitacins reinforces the two groups' coevolutionary association with the Cucurbitaceae. The apparent lack of a common response toCucurbita blossom volatiles suggests recent evolutionary pathways are substantially different for these two groups of beetles.     

Use of stochastic patch occupancy models in the California red-legged frog for Bayesian inference regarding past events and future persistence

Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.