大孔吸附树脂对烷基酚聚氧乙烯醚的吸附行为

烷基酚聚氧乙烯醚(APEOn)是一类重要的非离子表面活性剂,由于其生物代谢产物被证实具有较大的毒性,因此引起人们广泛关注.本文使用两种不同的大孔吸附树脂XAD-4、NDA-804对APEOn类物质NP10进行吸附,该技术可为使用大孔吸附树脂去除此类污染物提供理论依据.研究结果表明:XAD-4、NDA-804对NP10都有较好的吸附效果,温度对吸附有较大的影响,升高温度吸附量增大.NDA-804对NP10的吸附效果要好于XAD-4,这与它的化学特性以及孔结构有关.NP1O在两种树脂上的吸附都能用Langmuir吸附等温线方程很好的拟合,表明属于单层分子吸附.吸附热力学参数计算结果表明,XAD-4、NDA-804对NP10的吸附过程是吸热和自发的.吸附动力学拟合结果表明,NP10在XAD-4、NDA-804上的吸附都符合假二级反应动力学.     

阴离子交换树脂回收土壤淋洗液中的EDTA-Cd

以湖南株洲污染土壤作为研究对象,研究了Na-EDTA、NH_4-EDTA、Ca-EDTA在不同浓度下对土壤中Cd的去除效果,确定出适合的浓度与淋洗剂;并采用氯型717阴离子交换树脂对土壤淋洗液中的EDTA-Cd络合物进行吸附与回收试验,主要方法流程如下:采用静态法考察了固液比、pH值、时间、温度对树脂吸附EDTA-Cd络合物的影响,确定最佳吸附条件;采用上柱吸附法研究了在不同流速下穿透曲线的变化,确定树脂的穿透点;选取Fe_2(SO_4)_3多价金属盐溶液作为再生剂,对树脂中的EDTA-Cd络合物进行动态洗脱回收,测定出洗脱曲线与体积.随后进行连续5次吸附洗脱试验,探究树脂的再生性与树脂中EDTA-Cd络合物的回收效果.结果表明,在浓度为2.5 mmol·L~(-1)时,Na-EDTA、NH_4-EDTA、Ca-EDTA溶液对土壤中的Cd具有较好的去除效果,其去除率分别为64.75%、66.11%、68.29%.另外,在静态吸附过程中,随着固液比增加,树脂对EDTACd的吸附效率减少,在pH值为5.6时,对EDTA-Cd络合物吸附效率达到93.53%,树脂达到吸附平衡所需的时间为30—45 min,最佳反应温度区间为25—35℃;在动态吸附回收过程中,当上柱流速为4 m L·min~(-1)时,树脂达穿透点所需EDTA-Cd络合溶液为650 m L;再生剂Fe_2(SO_4)_3的洗脱体积为60 m L,洗脱溶液与吸附EDTA-Cd络合物溶液的体积比例达到1∶10.经过连续5次吸附洗脱试验后,树脂对EDTA-Cd络合物的去除率和再生率分别达到76.64%—93.43%、75.65%—84.19%.利用氯型717阴离子交换树脂提取以及回收土壤淋洗液中EDTA-Cd络合物是可行的.     

2种无机洗脱剂对矿区污染土壤中铅、镉的洗脱研究

选用HCl和CaCl2 2种无机洗脱剂对矿区重金属污染土壤进行化学洗脱试验,分析比较了2种洗脱剂对土壤中Pb、Cd的洗脱效果,并探讨了洗脱剂浓度、洗脱时间、温度、固液比、洗脱次数对土壤中Pb、Cd洗脱效果的影响.结果表明,对于土壤中Pb的洗脱,HCl的效果优于CaCl2,其洗脱率分别为26.0% ～68.2%和14.6% ～48.7%;而对于土壤中Cd的洗脱,CaCl2优于HCl,其洗脱率分别为30.7% ～54.6%和24.2% ～42.6%.在各影响因素中,洗脱剂浓度对土壤中Pb的洗脱有显著影响,而洗脱次数对土壤中Cd的洗脱有显著影响,其他因素对Pb、Cd的洗脱均无显著影响.洗脱土壤中Pb的最佳操作条件为:HCl 200 mmol·L-1、时间240 min、温度20 ℃、m(固)∶V(液)=1∶15、洗脱2次;洗脱土壤中Cd的最佳操作条件为:CaCl2 50 mmol·L-1、时间240 min、温度35 ℃、m(固)∶V(液)=1∶20、洗脱4次.     

水热合成silicalite-2分子筛及对对硝基苯酚的吸附与脱附性能

以硅溶胶为硅源、四丁基氢氧化铵(TBAOH)为模板剂,按1SiO2∶0.35TBAOH∶25H2O的物质的量之比,170℃下水热晶化48 h合成silicalite-2分子筛,并用XRD、SEM等方法对其进行了表征.考察了pH、温度、投加量、NaCl浓度对模拟的对硝基苯酚废水吸附效果的影响.结果表明,在对硝基苯酚废水浓度为20 mg·L-1,pH=4,投加量为0.3g·L-1,温度25℃,NaCl浓度580 mg·L-1时,吸附量为98.4 mg·g-1.采用1.44%氢氧化钠脱附剂对吸附饱和的silicalite-2分子筛进行脱附110 min,脱附率达到85%以上.     

D201树脂对双组分萘系化合物的吸附分离

用D201强碱性阴离子交换树脂自双组分水溶液中选择吸附分离1-氨基-2-萘酚-4-磺酸(1,2,4-酸)和2-萘酚,考察了溶液pH值、浓度、温度、树脂床高及流速等因素对吸附和分离系数的影响.结果表明,在pH 3—6时,树脂对1,2,4-酸有较高的吸附量及吸附选择性,利于1,2,4-酸与2-萘酚的选择性吸附分离.温度对吸附的影响较小,等温吸附规律符合Freundlich模型.动态吸附表明,至1,2,4-酸的泄漏点时,吸附流出液中几乎只含2-萘酚,1,2,4-酸被吸附于树脂上.随着树脂床层的增长或初始浓度和流速的减小,都使泄漏点推迟及分离系数提高.载酚酸的树脂柱可用15%质量比的NH4Cl和20%体积比的乙醇混合液定量洗脱1,2,4-酸.     

含水层介质对氯酚类污染物的吸附-解吸特性

为探讨含水层介质对氯酚类污染物的吸附规律,以吉林市含水层介质--砂土为实验材料,采用批量吸附实验方法分别研究了2,4-二氯酚、2,4,6-三氯酚及五氯酚单独存在和共存条件下在砂土上的吸附-解吸行为,并对pH、离子强度对吸附过程的影响进行了探讨.结果表明,砂土对三种氯酚的吸附-解吸符合Freundlieh等温模型,吸附常数Kd分别为5.659、2.507和2.104,解吸常数分别为22.642、8.222和4.488;吸附反应符合二级吸附速率动力学方程,吸附速率常数K分别为0.4851 kg·mg-1·h-1、0.0299 kg·mg-1·h-1和0.1225 kg·mg-1·h-1.氯酚在砂土上的吸附机理以疏水分配和配位体交换为主.在实验范围值内,吸附量随pH增加而减小,增加离子强度可以明显加强氯酚在砂土上的吸附.     

城市污水二级硝化出水的离子交换脱氮除磷

以城市污水二级硝化出水为原水,对比研究了3种强碱性阴离子交换树脂(201×4、D296、D301T)动态脱氮除磷情况,并以201×4树脂为模式树脂考察了树脂活化方式(常规酸碱交替活化与NaCl再生液活化)、腐殖酸(HA)浓度(1.1,2.8和9.4 mg·l~(-1))对树脂动态脱氮除磷的影响.结果表明,3种树脂都具有较好的脱氮除磷效果,达到TP穿透点(0.1 mg·l~(-1),去除率92%)时,201×4树脂具有最大的穿透体积(418 BV),但其对NO_3~--N的去除率(69%)明显低于其它树脂(97%-98%);3种树脂对SO_4~(2-)和HA的去除率分别为97%-99%,71%-80%;常规酸碱活化使树脂穿透体积较再生液活化仅提高了12%;超滤膜法和臭氧氧化法预处理对原水HA的去除率分别为27%和68%;原水HA浓度增加使树脂穿透体积从28lBV降至239BV,同时NO_3~-去除率从80%上升至92%.     

粘土矿物对烷基酚聚氧乙烯醚的吸附行为

烷基酚聚氧乙烯醚(APEOn)是一类重要的非离子表面活性剂,广泛地应用于工业、农业和日常生活中.近年来,由于其生物代谢产物被证实具有较大的毒性,因此引起人们广泛关注.文章使用自然界广泛存在的天然蒙脱土对APEOn类物质NP9、NP10、TX-100进行吸附,该技术可为使用粘土矿物去除此类污染物提供理论依据.研究结果表明:APEOn在蒙脱土上有较高的吸附量,吸附等温线为S型,符合Langmuir-Freundlich吸附模型,吸附量大小为NP9>NP10>TX-100.温度对吸附的影响较大,在小于40 ℃时,升高温度吸附量减小,而当温度超过40 ℃时,升高温度则有利于吸附的进行.pH值对吸附的影响较小.吸附动力学拟合结果表明,APEOn在蒙脱土上的吸附符合假二级反应动力学,在初始质量浓度为300 mg·L-1时,NP9、NP10、TX-100的吸附速率常数分别为0.377、0.126、0.085 g·mg-1·min-1.解吸实验表明,在纯水中APEOn从蒙脱土上的解吸率并不大,但在乙醇溶液中,解吸率大大提高.     

壳聚糖的化学改性及其吸附性能的研究

以脱乙酰度90%的壳聚糖(CTS)与硫氰酸铵和氯乙酸反应,合成了一种带有硫脲基和羧基双官能团的水溶性中间产物,再经戊二醛交联,制备了水不溶性的可用于处理含重金属废水的颗粒状树脂.用FTIR,SEM及比表面法对中间产物及颗粒状树脂进行了表征,表明—HN—C(S)—NH—CH2—COOH基团接枝到CTS链上并进行了交联.吸附实验表明,该化合物对Cu2 的吸附量(248mmol·g-1)比Ni2 (135mmol·g-1)高得多,这可能与离子的核电荷数和螯合体的配位相关.在两种金属离子的混合液中,该化合物对Cu2 的初始吸附选择性更强.吸附金属离子的树脂经3次盐酸洗脱再生后,吸附性能几乎没有下降.     

锰氧化物-阳离子交换树脂复合材料的制备及其对水中重金属的吸附性能

采用原位沉淀-空气氧化法将锰氧化物负载于大孔强酸性阳离子交换树脂D001上,制备出一种新型锰氧化物-阳离子交换树脂复合材料Mn-D001,并对该材料吸附水中Pb2+、Cd2+、Cu2+的性能进行了深入研究.TEM、XRD以及XPS的分析结果表明,负载的锰氧化物以MnO2的形态存在.基于单一金属离子静态吸附的一元体系实验表明,Mn-D001比D001对Pb2+、Cd2+、Cu2+具有更高的吸附选择性,在高浓度竞争离子Ca2+、Mg2+、Na+共存的情况下,仍能保持较高的重金属去除率;Mn-D001对Pb2+、Cd2+、Cu2+的吸附行为符合准一级动力学模型(R2>0.99)和Langmuir吸附等温线模型(R2>0.99).在温度为303 K时,Mn-D001对3种重金属的饱和吸附容量可分别达到476.19 mg.g-1、243.90 mg.g-1及196.08 mg.g-1,优于原有树脂D001.基于复合重金属离子竞争吸附的二元、三元体系的实验表明,Mn-D001对3种重金属的吸附能力顺序为Pb2+>Cu2+>Cd2+,吸附能力由原有树脂D001以及负载的锰氧化物的性质共同决定.     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity

Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km² around Bonga and 3000 km² in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques     

What Every Conservation Biologist Should Know about Economic Theory

Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.     

Globalization of the Cashmere Market and the Decline of Large Mammals in Central Asia

As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland where cashmere‐producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis. In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3‐fold increase in local profits for herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica).That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4‐fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur)in trans‐Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China's Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard(Panthera uncia), khulan(Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic‐level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere. Globalización del Mercado de Cachemira y la Declinación de Mamíferos Mayores en Asia Central     

The lichen-rich coastal heath vegetation on the isle of Anholt, Denmark — conservation and management

The high conservational value of the lichen-rich vegetation and landscape of the marine foreland Ørkenen on the isle of Anholt is treated from a Danish as well as a European perspective. The sensitivity of the lichen-rich vegetation to physical disturbance is emphasized. The impact of invasive species such asPinus mugo as well as the effect of atmospheric deposition of nutrients on the heaths at Anholt is described. Considerations related to the development of a management plan for Ørkenen are presented.     

Behavior and ecology of Old World Luperini beetles of the genusAulacophora (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Summary The attraction of Old World leaf beetles in the genusAulacophora to kairomones and parakairomones which are effective lures for New WorldDiabrotica andAcalymma were investigated. Beetles captured on sticky traps baited with single and multicomponent lures were no different from the control traps for two species ofAulacophora. Yellow colored traps and squash blossoms are attractive toAulacophora beetles which detect sub-microgram quantities of cucurbitacins on silica gel. Leaf feeding behavior and flight activity data are correlated with varietal preference of threeAulacophora species. The common response byDiabrotica andAulacophora to cucurbitacins reinforces the two groups' coevolutionary association with the Cucurbitaceae. The apparent lack of a common response toCucurbita blossom volatiles suggests recent evolutionary pathways are substantially different for these two groups of beetles.     

Use of stochastic patch occupancy models in the California red-legged frog for Bayesian inference regarding past events and future persistence

Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.