大气CO2浓度升高对植物光合作用的影响

大气CO2浓度不断升高以及由此带来的温室效应已成为全球变化研究的热点问题之一。CO2作为植物光合作用的底物,其浓度升高必然对植物的光合作用产生影响。大气CO2浓度升高对植物光合作用的影响主要体现在:对不同植物的光合色素含量均有影响,但结果有所差异;短期处理光合速率提高,而长期处理则可能出现光合适应,其适应机理目前尚存在分歧;不同光合类型植物的叶片形态结构有不同的响应结果,叶绿体超微结构也明显变化;生物量和产量提高。此外,CO2浓度升高与其它环境因子相互作用对植物的光合作用也具有重要影响。大气CO2浓度升高条件下对木本植物的研究、在分子水平上的深入研究以及在不同环境下的研究将成为未来研究的主要方向。     

大气CO2升高对土壤碳循环影响的研究进展

土壤有机碳是陆地碳库的重要组成部分,其积累和分解的变化直接影响全球的碳平衡。据估计,全球土壤（表层1m）有机碳积累总量相当于大气中碳总量的2～3倍。土壤是温室气体的源或汇,土壤碳库的变化将影响大气C02的浓度,因此,土壤碳库对人类活动的响应也是全球碳循环和全球变化研究的热点。在全球变化的大背景下,大气CO2升高导致植被生态系统碳平衡的改变进而对土壤碳循环产生影响。总结了陆地生态系统碳循环对大气C02浓度升高响应的主要生物学机制及过程,简述了大气C02浓度升高对影响土壤碳输入和输出的各因素的研究进展,并指出未来研究的主要方向。在大气C02浓度升高条件下,陆地生态系统碳循环的变化主要反映在以下几个方面：1）不同类型植物群落的净初级生产力（NPP）显著增加,但湿地植物的净初级生产力也有可能降低;2）光合产物向根系分配的数量增加,地上／地下生物量降低,根系形态发生变化,根系周转速率和根系分泌等过程的碳流量提高;3）植物含氮量降低,C／N提高,次生代谢产物增加,微生物生长受到抑制,植物残体分解速率降低;4）土壤呼吸速率显著增加,提高幅度受植物类型与土壤状况的影响;5）进入土壤的植物残体及分泌物的数量和性质影响土壤酶的活性,脱氢酶和转化酶活性增加,酚氧化酶和纤维素酶受植物类型与环境条件的影响;6）土壤中真菌的数量的增加幅度要高于细菌;7）CH4释放量增加,在植物的生长期表现更为明显。由于陆地生态系统碳循环的复杂性,研究结果仍有很大的不确定性。大气C02浓度升高与全球变化的其它表现间的交互作用将是今后研究的重点,同时由于土壤碳循环是一个由微生物介导的生物地球化学循环过程,因此,加强陆地生态系统碳循环的微生物机制研究也将为全面理解碳循环的过程提供更加准确的研究理论基础。     

大气CO2体积分数升高对植物N素吸收的影响

从影响植物N素吸收的因素来看，大气CO2体积分数升高条件下植物净光合作用增强，碳同化产物增多，利于改善N素吸收的能量和物质基础：植物根系生长增强，生物量增多且空间分布加大，有利于N素吸收；但土壤有效N供应能力的变化存在增强和减弱两种观点。从植物N素吸收的实际情况来看，大气CO2体积分数升高条件下植物N吸收总量并末增加，植物体内N质量分数普遍降低，某些种类植物N吸收形态也发生了改变。因此要阐明大气CO2体积分数升高对植物N素吸收的影响机制，必须探明土壤有效N供应能力的变化：CO2体积分数升高条件下N矿化作用是否增强，微生物和植物间是否存在对有效N的竞争，此外，CO2体积分数升高条件下植物根系形态特征变化和N素吸收(包括主动和被动吸收)的生理机制及其与环境因素的关系也值得进一步研究。     

陆地碳平衡对大气CO_2升高的响应及其机制

研究陆地碳平衡对大气CO2浓度升高的响应,能为揭示碳失汇之迷提供有力证据,为制定缓解全球变化的合理政策措施提供理论依据.综述了陆地碳平衡对全球大气CO2升高的响应及其町能的机制,由于陆地生态系统的复杂性,以及不同的研究在具体的对象、时间、地点、方法和角度的差异,目前有关陆地碳平衡对全球大气CO2升高的响应还存在很大的分歧.陆地碳库主要可分为植被碳库和土壤碳库,大气CO2浓度升高主要是通过影响光合作用、土壤养分、水分供应、光照条件、群落组成、光合产物分配等方式影响植被碳库;而土壤碳库的响应机理主要包括光合产物向土壤的输入量、脱落物质量、养分循环、光合产物分配、根系周转期、微生物活性等的响应.关于陆地碳平衡对全球大气CO2升高的响应今后应该主要集中在:(1)不同生态系统影响全球植被碳库变化的主导因子;(2)大气CO2浓度升高与其他环境因子的互作效应;(3)大气CO2浓度升高对植物光合作用的促进效应与光合作用适应性间的关系;(4)地上碳库与地下碳库间的相关性,及其对大气CO2浓度升高的分别响应;(5)克服目前实验方法存在的局限性.     

陆地生态系统植物和土壤微生物群落多样性对全球变化的响应与适应研究进展

生态系统植物和土壤微生物群落多样性受氮沉降、气候变暖、大气CO_2浓度升高(eCO_2)、极端干旱等全球变化的强烈影响,深入认识和理解全球变化下植物群落-土壤微生物群落的关系对生物多样性保护至关重要。文章综述了陆地生态系统植物和土壤微生物群落多样性对以上4种全球变化单因子和多因子(双因子、三因子及四因子)交互作用的响应与适应规律。主要结论为,(1)氮沉降、气候变暖和极端干旱均改变了植物和土壤微生物的群落组成,呈现降低、增加和无影响3种效应,大多数研究结果是降低效应,例如高氮沉降和长期低水平氮沉降减少了植物多样性,微生物群落多样性的下降幅度随氮沉降时间和量的增加而加强;气候变暖改变了植物的物候,降低了植物多样性,促使土壤微生物群落的演替分异;极端干旱导致植物组成发生了方向性的变化,植物多样性降低并促进盐生植物的生长,土壤微生物量和活性降低并促使转向渗透胁迫型策略。(2)eCO_2增加促进植物光合作用从而刺激植物的生长,对植物多样性的影响取决于资源可利用性,一般增加根际细菌和土壤真菌的相对丰度以加快土壤的碳源利用。(3)全球变化多因子交互作用下植物-土壤微生物群落多样性的关联效应主要为协同、累加、抵消或非加性等,其中氮沉降×气候变暖为累加;氮沉降×eCO_2对植物生物量的影响为协同增效,而对植物群落可能是相反或抵消;气候变暖×eCO_2对土壤微生物群落为累加;三因子和四因子交互作用对植物和土壤微生物群落为非加性,较难预测。最后指出当前的研究不足和今后的发展方向:(1)加大不同时空尺度的植物和土壤微生物群落研究;(2)精确全球变化多因子交互作用对植物和土壤微生物群落多样性影响的估算。     

大气CO2体积分数升高环境温度与土壤水分对农田土壤呼吸的影响

植物-土壤生态系统土壤呼吸与温度、水分环境因子的关系对评价目前大气CO2浓度持续升高背景下陆地生态系统土壤碳库的变化趋势具有重要意义.依托FACE(free air carbon dioxide enrichment)技术平台,利用阻断根法,采用LI-6400红外气体分析仪(IRGA)-田间原位测定的方法,研究了大气CO2体积分数升高对稻(Oryza sativa L.)/麦(Triticum aestivum L.)轮作制中麦田的土壤呼吸、基础土壤呼吸和呼吸主要影响因子,分析了大气CO2体积分数升高后温度与水分对土壤呼吸的影响.结果表明,在整个测定期间,土壤呼吸与基础土壤呼吸速率呈明显的季节变化,与气温和土壤温度季节变化趋势基本一致,呼吸速率与温度具有显著的相关性,是影响土壤呼吸的控制性因素;呼吸速率与土壤含水量无显著的相关性,土壤水分是研究区麦田土壤CO2排放的非限制性因素,且温度与土壤含水量间的交互效应对土壤呼吸的影响不显著.基础土壤呼吸比作物下的土壤呼吸更易受温度影响,土壤温度比气温能更好地解释土壤CO2排放的季节性变化.而CO2体积分数增加降低了温度与呼吸速率间的相关系数和Q10,表明温度对土壤CO2排放的影响程度下降.但高CO2体积分数环境中植物-土壤生态系统的土壤呼吸对温度增加敏感性的降低,有利于减缓土壤碳分解损失的速度.结果有助于评价未来高CO2体积分数气候变暖背景下植物-土壤系统下的农田生态系统土壤碳的固定潜力.     

大气CO_2浓度升高和氮肥施用对三江平原湿地小叶章生物量及根冠比的影响

利用开顶箱薰气室(open-top chamber)试验装置,研究了不施氮(NN)、施常氮(MN,5 g·m-2)和施高氮(HN,15 g·m-2)3个氮素水平下大气CO2浓度升高对小叶章(Calamagrostis angustifolia)生物量和根冠比的影响.结果表明,大气CO2浓度升高对小叶章生物量的影响因生长期而异.大气CO2浓度升高对小叶章地上生物量的促进作用主要表现在生长前期,拔节期和抽穗期地上生物量较正常大气CO2浓度增加12.42%～22.60%,而腊熟期和成熟期仅增加3.11%～12.97%;大气CO2浓度升高对小叶章地下生物量的促进作用在生长后期表现明显,除拔节期外,小叶章地下生物量增加17.63%～42.20%.小叶章生物量和根冠比对大气CO2浓度的响应与供N水平有关.在HN水平下,大气CO2浓度升高使小叶章生物量和根冠比明显增加,在NN条件下促进作用则不显著.小叶章根冠比明显增加主要是地下生物量显著增长引起的.     

农田土壤呼吸对大气CO2浓度升高的响应

大气CO2浓度急剧升高引起的全球气候变暖是人们关注的环境问题之一.随着气候变化对全球生态环境的影响日益增大,全球碳循环研究已经成为各国科学家研究的热点之一.模拟大气CO2浓度升高试验技术先后经历了人工气候室、开顶式气室、FACE技术(Free Air carbon dioxjde eariclament)阶段,FACE技术因其无限接近自然条件而成为研究大气CO2浓度增加对整个生态系统影响的最理想试验平台.土壤呼吸是陆地生态系统碳循环的重要环节,农田生态系统是陆地生态系统的重要组成.研究农田生态系统的土壤呼吸对大气CO2浓度增加的响应是预测和评价农田系统乃至整个陆地生态系统土壤碳周转和碳收支的重要前提与基础.文章根据现有研究成果.阐述了模拟大气CO2浓度升高的试验技术,比较了农田土壤呼吸的测定方法,总结了以FACE研究成果为主的高CO2浓度条件下农田土壤呼吸、不同地下来源贡献及环境因子影响,提出了进一步研究的方向,以期为全球气候变化背景下的农田土壤呼吸和碳固定及全球碳循环研究提供帮助.     

大气CO2与植物氮素营养的关系

大气CO2浓度升高对植物吸收氮素,以及对植物和土壤中的氮浓度、C/N比和氮循环都存在着影响。大气CO2浓度与植物氮素营养之间存在着交互作用。大气CO2浓度升高对植物氮素营养影响的结果与氮浓度、氮形态等因素有关。     

菌根真菌对大气CO2浓度升高的响应研究进展

大气CO2浓度升高对植物的光合作用、呼吸作用等产生直接影响，进而影响到运送到根系中碳的量，菌根真菌也随之受到影响．本文对全球CO2浓度升高对菌根真菌的影响、菌根真菌在植物对大气CO2增加响应中的作用、菌根真菌在大气CO2浓度增加条件下对整个生态系统的作用等进行了综述，同时对当前存在的问题和未来的发展做了探讨．图1参37     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity

Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km² around Bonga and 3000 km² in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques     

What Every Conservation Biologist Should Know about Economic Theory

Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.     

Globalization of the Cashmere Market and the Decline of Large Mammals in Central Asia

As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland where cashmere‐producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis. In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3‐fold increase in local profits for herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica).That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4‐fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur)in trans‐Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China's Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard(Panthera uncia), khulan(Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic‐level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere. Globalización del Mercado de Cachemira y la Declinación de Mamíferos Mayores en Asia Central     

The lichen-rich coastal heath vegetation on the isle of Anholt, Denmark — conservation and management

The high conservational value of the lichen-rich vegetation and landscape of the marine foreland Ørkenen on the isle of Anholt is treated from a Danish as well as a European perspective. The sensitivity of the lichen-rich vegetation to physical disturbance is emphasized. The impact of invasive species such asPinus mugo as well as the effect of atmospheric deposition of nutrients on the heaths at Anholt is described. Considerations related to the development of a management plan for Ørkenen are presented.     

Behavior and ecology of Old World Luperini beetles of the genusAulacophora (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Summary The attraction of Old World leaf beetles in the genusAulacophora to kairomones and parakairomones which are effective lures for New WorldDiabrotica andAcalymma were investigated. Beetles captured on sticky traps baited with single and multicomponent lures were no different from the control traps for two species ofAulacophora. Yellow colored traps and squash blossoms are attractive toAulacophora beetles which detect sub-microgram quantities of cucurbitacins on silica gel. Leaf feeding behavior and flight activity data are correlated with varietal preference of threeAulacophora species. The common response byDiabrotica andAulacophora to cucurbitacins reinforces the two groups' coevolutionary association with the Cucurbitaceae. The apparent lack of a common response toCucurbita blossom volatiles suggests recent evolutionary pathways are substantially different for these two groups of beetles.     

Use of stochastic patch occupancy models in the California red-legged frog for Bayesian inference regarding past events and future persistence

Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.