卤代脂肪烃鱼类急性毒性QSAR模型研究

采用量子化学方法对27个卤代烃化合物进行结构优化和频率分析计算,提取其组成、拓扑、几何、静电和量子化学等结构参数描述符,运用启发式方法筛选最佳的结构参数,并建立黑头呆鱼急性毒性线性回归模型和非线性的支持向量机回归模型.模型方程表明卤代烃化合物导致黑头呆鱼的急性毒性可以应用KH1、IC0、EHOMO-LUMO三个参数解释,几何形状,疏水性能和反应活性是影响鱼类急性毒性的主要因素.两个模型均具有较强的模型稳定性、预测性和可信性,可用于准确预测卤代烃在鱼体内的急性毒性.     

含硫苯衍生物对发光细菌的毒性效果及其定理结构活性相关分析

利用发光细菌法测定了２９种氯取代和硝苯取代的苯硫（砜、亚砜）基乙酸酯的毒性，通过定量结构活性相关（ＱＳＡＲ）分析发现：此类化合物的毒性主要与其取代基的电荷效应相关，电荷的区域分布对化合物的毒性效应有重要影响。推测该化合物的毒性机理是毒物分子与发光反应中的主要辅酶ＦＭＮＨ２形成了氢键。还发明：在这类链状毒物分子中，远离活性中心一端的基团具有脱毒作用。     

有机磷酸酯类化合物的定量结构-活性关系及稳健性分析

应用理论线性溶剂化能关系（TLSER）模型研究了35种有机磷酸酯类（OP）化合物的结构及其对家蝇急性毒性之间的关系,得到了可以指示毒性作用机理的定量结构-活性关系．在OP化合物与生物体的作用过程中,分子的极性是影响活性的最重要因素,表明OP化合物可能与生物体发生特异性反应．采用Bootstrap方法分析模型的稳健性,结果表明,模型的系数、标准误差及相关系数均与Bootstrap估计接近,模型具有较强的稳健性．     

1-取代-2-氨基苯并咪唑化合物毒性和热力学性质的密度泛函理论研究

用密度泛函理论(DFT)B3LYP方法,在6-31G(d)基组水平上,对8个1-取代-2-氨基苯并咪唑化合物分子进行了全优化计算,得到其轨道能(ENHOMO、ENLUMO以及二者轨道能隙ΔE2)、原子电荷(Q)等量子化学参数,以及热能校正值Eth、恒容热容Cv、熵S等热力学性质,并计算了8种1-取代-2-氨基苯并咪唑化合物分子的电性拓扑状态指数Em。通过最佳变量子集回归建立这些化合物毒性的QSAR模型,以及热力学性质的QSPR模型。模型的相关系数R2和采用逐一剔除法得到的交叉验证相关系数R2cv均大于0.84和0.72,利用2个模型得到毒性的预测值与实验值的误差分别为0.11和0.20,3个热力学性质预测模型的误差分别为3.89%、4.03%和2.64%,吻合度较好,经检验证明所建模型具有良好的鲁棒性和预测能力。研究工作揭示了基团对毒性大小影响的变化规律、有利于对苯并咪唑类化合物在生态环境中的危害性进行评价,可为研发高效、低毒的苯并咪唑类新型药物提供理论依据。     

苯砜基乙酸酯类化合物发光菌毒性效应的CoMFA研究

应用比较分子场分析方法(CoMFA)对56种苯砜基乙酸酯类化合物的发光菌急性毒性进行了研究,获得了6组分三维定量结构-活性相关模型(3D-QSAR)．模型的交叉验证相关系数(q^2)和常规相关系数(r^2)分别为0．823和0．958,说明该模型具有较高的稳定性和较好的预测能力．模型分析表明：该类化合物发光菌急性毒性效应与化合物分子的空间场和静电场具有显著相关关系．     

硝基芳烃化合物急性毒性预测的理论研究

硝基芳烃是重要的化工原料,但对生物具有一定的毒性。为建立硝基芳烃对梨形四膜虫(Tetrahymena pyriformis)急性毒性的定量结构-活性相关性(QSAR)模型,分析了45种硝基芳烃的分子结构与其对梨形四膜虫毒性之间的相关关系,计算了硝基芳烃的电性拓扑状态指数和电性距离矢量,并优化筛选了电性拓扑状态指数的E_9和E_(28)、电性距离矢量的m_(15)、m_(26)和m_(66)等5种结构参数,将其与硝基芳烃对梨形四膜虫的毒性进行多元回归分析,得到多元回归方程的相关系数r为0.985。为提高预测精度,将这5种分子结构参数作为神经网络的输入层变量,急性毒性值作为输出层变量,采用5∶4∶1的网络结构,获得令人满意的QSAR神经网络预测模型,总相关系数r_t为0.994,计算得到的急性毒性预测值与实验值非常吻合,平均误差仅为0.04。结果表明,该模型具有良好的预测硝基芳烃急性毒性的能力,神经网络法预测结果比多元线性回归法更为准确。该研究揭示了硝基等基团对生物急性毒性影响的变化规律,有利于对硝基芳烃化合物在环境中的危害性进行有效评价。     

氟化酚对梨形四膜虫毒性的定量构效关系解析

应用Chem3D Ultra 7.0软件中的MOPAC半经验方法PM3,计算了16种氟化酚的19个量子化学和理化参数.采用PLS-VIP方法,筛选出影响氟化酚毒性的7个主要参数,即最低空轨道能量(ELUMO)、最高轨道能量与最低空轨道能量之差(△E)、分子总能量(ET)、最正H原子电荷(QH+)、羟基基团中氧原子的最负电荷(QO-)、connolly分子可及表面积(CAA)和connolly溶剂排斥体积(CSV),并据此建立模型对水生梨形四膜虫的急性毒性作定量构效关系研究.结果表明,氟化酚对梨形四膜虫的毒性作用表现为反应性毒性,ELUMO,QH+,ET对氟化酚的毒性作用有重要贡献,氟化酚对四膜虫急性毒性的大小与ELUMO、△E和ET呈负相关,而与QH+、QO-、CAA、CSV呈正相关,所得最优模型具有良好的预测效果(R2=0.961,F=344.8,P=2.92×10-11)和较高的稳定性(Q2cum=0.909).     

基于区间活性数据的定量结构-活性关系

利用贝叶斯统计方法构建了基于区间活性数据的取代苯胺和苯酚类化合物对大型溞(Daphniamagna)24 h急性毒性的定量结构-活性关系模型,并与基于平均数和中位数的点估计活性数据的定量结构-活性关系模型进行了比较.结果表明,前者可以充分利用化合物的活性数据信息,模型具有更好的拟合效果与预测能力以及较宽的应用范围.基于区间活性数据的定量结构-活性关系模型可为生态风险评价等提供更加可靠的预测数据.     

基于范数指数的农药对虹鳟急性毒性的的定量构效关系模型

由于农药的过度使用,水生生态环境正在受到威胁。虹鳟（Oncorhynchus mykiss）的水生毒性在农用化学品环境风险评价中起着重要作用。本文提出了两个范数指数公式,并由此导出几个范数描述符,建立了定量结构-活性关系（QSAR）模型用于预测各种农药对虹鳟的急性毒性（LC50）。结果表明,目前的QSAR模型的R2为0.8053。同时,内部验证（QLOO2=0.7606）、外部验证（Rtraining2=0.8011,Rtesting2=0.8108）、Y-随机化试验和适用域分析进一步证明了该QSAR模型的稳定性、可靠性和广泛的应用领域。因此,这些范数描述符可能适用于描述农药结构以预测水生生物急性毒性。     

含硫苯衍生物对发光细菌的毒性效应及其定量结构活性相关分析

利用发光细菌法测定了29种氯取代和硝基取代的苯硫(砜、亚砜)基乙酸酯的毒性,通过定量结构活性相关(QSAR)分析发现:此类化合物的毒性主要与其取代基的电荷效应相关,电荷的区域分布对化合物的毒性效应有重要影响.推测该化台物的毒性机理是毒物分子与发光反应中的主要辅酶FMNH_2形成了氢键.还发现:在这类链状毒物分子中,远离活性中心一端的基团具有脱毒作用.     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity

Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km² around Bonga and 3000 km² in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques     

What Every Conservation Biologist Should Know about Economic Theory

Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.     

Globalization of the Cashmere Market and the Decline of Large Mammals in Central Asia

As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland where cashmere‐producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis. In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3‐fold increase in local profits for herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica).That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4‐fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur)in trans‐Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China's Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard(Panthera uncia), khulan(Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic‐level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere. Globalización del Mercado de Cachemira y la Declinación de Mamíferos Mayores en Asia Central     

The lichen-rich coastal heath vegetation on the isle of Anholt, Denmark — conservation and management

The high conservational value of the lichen-rich vegetation and landscape of the marine foreland Ørkenen on the isle of Anholt is treated from a Danish as well as a European perspective. The sensitivity of the lichen-rich vegetation to physical disturbance is emphasized. The impact of invasive species such asPinus mugo as well as the effect of atmospheric deposition of nutrients on the heaths at Anholt is described. Considerations related to the development of a management plan for Ørkenen are presented.     

Behavior and ecology of Old World Luperini beetles of the genusAulacophora (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Summary The attraction of Old World leaf beetles in the genusAulacophora to kairomones and parakairomones which are effective lures for New WorldDiabrotica andAcalymma were investigated. Beetles captured on sticky traps baited with single and multicomponent lures were no different from the control traps for two species ofAulacophora. Yellow colored traps and squash blossoms are attractive toAulacophora beetles which detect sub-microgram quantities of cucurbitacins on silica gel. Leaf feeding behavior and flight activity data are correlated with varietal preference of threeAulacophora species. The common response byDiabrotica andAulacophora to cucurbitacins reinforces the two groups' coevolutionary association with the Cucurbitaceae. The apparent lack of a common response toCucurbita blossom volatiles suggests recent evolutionary pathways are substantially different for these two groups of beetles.     

Use of stochastic patch occupancy models in the California red-legged frog for Bayesian inference regarding past events and future persistence

Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.