京沪高铁天津地区地表沉降空间插值方法研究

京沪高速铁路天津、沧州地区存在不同程度的地表沉降。以京沪高速铁路天津地区沿线的水准观测数据为研究对象,采用反距离加权法、径向基函数法与泛克里格插值法对研究对象进行了空间插值分析,通过精度评定与结果检验发现泛克里格方法能够较好地反映地表趋势面,可以作为研究该区域地表沉降的一种方法。     

基于遥感的北京市体感温度指数反演研究

体感温度指数综合考虑了温度和湿度对人体的影响,可有效表征人体舒适度,对于研究城市热岛效应对人体健康的影响具有重要意义。基于2017年7月10日的Landsat 8卫星影像运用单通道算法反演北京市的地表温度,结合NDVI、MNDWI、海拔及水汽含量等环境因子,构建随机森林模型估算近地表气温;基于同一天的MODIS水汽产品提取大气可降水量,运用逐步回归方法建立近地表水汽含量与大气可降水量、地表温度及海拔之间的关系来估算近地表露点温度,在此基础上计算Humidex指数来表征北京市体感温度的空间分布。结果表明,模型估算的体感温度平均绝对误差(MAE)为1.40℃,均方根误差(RMSE)为1.71℃。北京市7月10日的体感温度范围为24~42℃,具有东南高西北低的分布特征。主城区和近郊区的体感温度显著高于远郊区,并向四周呈递减趋势;受空气湿度的影响,平谷南部、密云河谷一带、延怀盆地以及房山东南部等部分远郊地区的体感温度也比较高。就城市内部的体感温度而言,不同功能区的分布使得体感温度在相邻区域上存在空间差异性,东城区和西城区体感温度最高,平均值达到了39.79℃,丰台区、海淀区、石景山区和朝阳区的平均体感温度也达到了34.29℃。体感温度与气温在空间分布上具有一致性,但整体上高于气温,在主城区和各区中心区域,体感温度比气温高5℃以上。该研究尝试通过遥感手段反演北京地区体感温度指数,获取了北京市体感温度的详细空间分布信息,为城市人居环境和城市热岛效应研究提供了科学参考。     

Kriging插值法在植物物种地理分布空间格局研究中的应用

Kriging插值法是一种定量化描述地理空间分布格局的方法,主要应用于空间采样以及相关的一些空间格局分析。而物种的地理空间分布是物种在自然及人类活动共同作用下的结果。物种分布的研究目前主要从气候的角度来探讨其与气候之间的关系,并取得了很好的结果,但是仅从气候考虑又有局限性,而且很难真实地反映出物种地理空间的分布格局。因此,将Kriging插值法引进到物种分布的研究中,并以我国广泛分布的物种——栓皮栎为例,探讨其可行性。结果表明：Kriging插值法能很好地拟合物种地理空间分布的实际情况,其误差程度较小。该研究的结果可为物种资源的开发利用和物种的引种栽培提供理论依据。     

西北地区昼夜增温的不对称性对植被动态的影响

全球变暖有很大的差异性,表现在昼夜增温速度和各个季节的温度增加的速率具有不一致性,夜间增温的速度要快于白天增温的速度,夜间气温的增温对植被变化的影响更为明显。文章利用34年逐月最高温、最低温以及降水量数据,用一元线性回归分析法、反距离权重插值以及二阶偏相关分析法,分析了西北地区白天和夜间气温的非对称时空变化和非对称增温趋势对植被动态的影响,结果表明:西北地区昼夜温度都呈现出上升的趋势,且上升趋势比较明显,白天增温的速度和夜间增温的速度呈现出不对称性,夜间温度升高的速率是白天温度升高速率的1.2倍,昼夜的温差呈现出减小的趋势;西北地区昼夜增温趋势存在不一致性,白天气温的增温速率在-0.02-0.11℃?a-1,夜间气温的增温速率在-0.06-0.2℃?a-1。tmax和tmin在绝大部分地区都呈现上升趋势,但在空间变化的区域上具有不对称性;西北地区植被生长对昼夜增温的响应具有明显的空间差异性,大部分地区的植被对昼夜增温表现为积极的响应,夜间增温对植被的影响要比白天增温对植被的影响是比较明显的;白天和夜间增温的不对称性影响着不同类型的植被,白天气温的升高有利于针叶林植被、草地和阔叶林植被的生长,而夜间气温的升高对灌丛和荒漠植被的生长有积极的影响。     

基于Sentinel多源遥感数据的河北省景县农田土壤水分协同反演

植被覆盖层对微波遥感反演地表土壤水分产生重要影响。以河北省景县为研究区,基于Sentinel-1 SAR遥感数据和Sentinel-2光学遥感数据,采用改进水云模型和Oh模型的组合方法,对植被覆盖地表土壤水分进行定量反演研究。结果表明:在Sentinel-1 VV极化条件下,改进水云模型和Oh模型的组合方法具有较高的反演精度,决定系数(R~2)为0.653 0,均方根误差(RMSE)为0.040 1 cm~3·cm~(-3),平均绝对误差(MAE)为0.032 7 cm~3·cm~(-3),这3项反演精度评价指标均优于VH极化。该方法在获取高空间分辨率和高精度的植被覆盖区农田土壤水分信息方面具有较高的应用价值。     

北京松山油松种群结构及空间分布格局

研究了北京松山自然保护区天然油松(Pinus tabulaeformisr)林的树冠结构和个体胸径,通过Ripley's K函数探讨了油松种群不同层次个体(幼树、小树和大树)的空间分布及空间关系,并探讨了地形(海拔高度、坡度)对油松种群空间分布的影响.结果表明,油松种群的胸径分布呈双峰型,应用Weibull函数拟合效果较好;树冠分布呈倒J型;胸径与冠幅存在显著的指数关系.油松种群呈聚集分布,但随高度增Jm(幼树→树→大树)聚集强度逐渐减弱,枯立木在样地内呈随机分布.枯立木与油松大树在1 m、5 m和13～18 m距离为显著正相关,幼树与小树在2～4 m和6～18 m距离呈显著正相关.海拔高度与油松种群呈正相关,坡度与幼树分布呈正相关,与小树和大树分布呈负相关.图5表2参24     

三江平原地区农田土壤中几种重金属空间分布状况

以三江平原地区农田土壤为研究对象,基于网格法取样,运用经典统计学和地统计学方法对研究区域内土壤重金属As、Cr、Cu、Pb和Zn的空间分布特征进行研究。结果表明,三江平原地区5种土壤重金属具有较高的空间异质性,变异系数在30.67%~66.89%之间;As、Cr、Cu、Pb和Zn均具有较强的空间自相关性,空间自相关范围较广;As和Cr的块金值和基台值之比〔C0/(C0+C)〕25%,其空间变异主要由土壤母质、地形和气候等自然因素(结构性变异)引起,Cu、Pb和Zn的C0/(C0+C)为35.8%~43.2%,非结构性因素对Cu、Pb和Zn的影响较大;5种重金属元素的空间分布格局不同,土壤各重金属元素在小尺度范围内存在明显的空间变异,除Cu元素外,其他4种重金属元素在大尺度空间范围内均不具有明显的空间分布规律;采用普通克里格插值法得到三江平原地区表层土壤重金属的空间分布图,发现土壤重金属含量与土壤类型、土壤理化性质、土地利用方式以及矿山开采、农业机械化强度、农业灌溉关系密切。     

中国土壤碱解氮含量与影响因子的空间关系研究

不同地区之间的地域差异,使以往针对土壤碱解氮与影响因子关系的研究存在着相互矛盾的结论。为比较不同环境条件下土壤碱解氮含量空间分异潜在主导因子的一致性与差异性,基于现有的GIS数据,采用地理探测器的研究方法,分别以全国及自然区划尺度为研究单位分析中国土壤碱解氮含量空间分异的潜在主导因子。结果表明,(1)从全国尺度上看,土地利用方式与气温及降水的共同作用主导了中国土壤碱解氮含量的空间分异过程。不同土地利用方式下土壤碱解氮含量的差异大致表现为林地(147 mg·kg~(-1))草地(113 mg·kg~(-1))耕地(103 mg·kg~(-1))水域(95 mg·kg~(-1))建设用地(92 mg·kg~(-1))未利用地(55 mg·kg~(-1))。在此基础上,气温与降水的变化进一步改变了地表的环境条件与植被状况,使得土壤碱解氮含量在大区尺度上发生更复杂的变化。(2)从自然区划尺度上看,影响土壤碱解氮含量空间分异的潜在主导因子存在一致性,但同时也存在差异。中国东部湿润季风区土壤碱解氮主要受气温影响。而在西部干旱区,降水以及坡度对碱解氮的作用相对较大。此外,在地形条件复杂的亚热带常绿阔叶林带、温带森林草原带及青藏高原区,海拔高度的变化对土壤碱解氮含量的影响最显著。因此,该研究认为影响土壤碱解氮含量空间分异的潜在主导因子会因其所处环境条件的不同而存在明显差异,但这些主导因子在一定程度上均能够有效反映各自然区划带的基本环境特征。     

基于三明治抽样的市域耕地土壤重金属监测点位优化布设方法

如何平衡成本和精度之间的矛盾是区域土壤环境监测网构建亟待解决的技术难题。以广东省江门市耕地土壤砷含量为研究对象,开展基于三明治抽样的土壤环境监测点位优化研究。按照1 km×1 km网格在研究区域均匀布设3 375个点位,采用三明治抽样方法对其点位进行抽样优化,并运用Cochran公式、空间插值表征、交叉验证、独立验证等验证方法对不同期望精度下的抽样样本进行验证。结果表明,(1)期望精度为5%、10%、15%、20%的三明治抽样样本量分别为278、147、102、80个。(2)抽样结果的4种验证方法表明,期望精度为5%和10%的抽样样本能满足监测精度要求。该精度下样本量均满足利用Cochran经典公式在相应置信水平和相对误差条件下获取的合理采样数量,并且相应的半变异函数模型拟合度好、均方根误差值(RMSE)小、克里金插值代表性强。(3)期望精度为10%的抽样样本在保证监测精度不变的同时,大大降低了监测成本,其监测点位从3 375个降至147个,点位数量降低了96%。总之,抽样样本的期望精度值越小,监测精度越高。在江门市市域尺度上,期望精度为10%的三明治抽样是一种高精度、低成本、代表性强的土壤环境监测点位优化方法。     

长三角地区秋冬季大气PM_(2.5)含量空间变异特征

利用长三角地区的128个国控大气监测站2014年11月到2015年1月的PM_(2.5)浓度逐时数据,采用地统计学方法进行了ρ(PM_(2.5))的空间异质性分析,并讨论了其动态变化的影响因素.结果表明,研究时段内ρ(PM_(2.5))的基底效应值在0.07—0.26之间,空间自相关性较强.块金值呈逐步变大趋势,表明PM_(2.5)人为源对其空间异质性的影响逐渐加强.ρ(PM_(2.5))变程值在217.1—336.2 km之间,东-西方向大于南-北方向.可依据各季节空气PM_(2.5)含量空间自相关距离的1/4—1/2进一步优化环境空气质量监测网点.根据普通克里格法空间插值结果得出,研究区PM_(2.5)污染呈片状分布,且PM_(2.5)污染程度持续加重,污染重心在苏锡常都市圈、南京都市圈和徐州都市圈,是空气PM_(2.5)污染防治的关键区域.南京都市圈和徐州都市圈可能受到WSW上风向外源输送的强烈影响,苏锡常都市圈则对SSE下风向的城市群构成较大的潜在影响.PM_(2.5)还与SO2、CO、NO2均呈显著正相关,表明研究区空气PM_(2.5)污染与化石能源燃烧和机动车尾气均有较大关系,也可能与SO2或NO2在不利气象条件下形成的二次气溶胶有关.     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

What Every Conservation Biologist Should Know about Economic Theory

Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.     

Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity

Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km² around Bonga and 3000 km² in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques     

Globalization of the Cashmere Market and the Decline of Large Mammals in Central Asia

As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland where cashmere‐producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis. In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3‐fold increase in local profits for herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica).That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4‐fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur)in trans‐Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China's Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard(Panthera uncia), khulan(Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic‐level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere. Globalización del Mercado de Cachemira y la Declinación de Mamíferos Mayores en Asia Central     

The lichen-rich coastal heath vegetation on the isle of Anholt, Denmark — conservation and management

The high conservational value of the lichen-rich vegetation and landscape of the marine foreland Ørkenen on the isle of Anholt is treated from a Danish as well as a European perspective. The sensitivity of the lichen-rich vegetation to physical disturbance is emphasized. The impact of invasive species such asPinus mugo as well as the effect of atmospheric deposition of nutrients on the heaths at Anholt is described. Considerations related to the development of a management plan for Ørkenen are presented.     

Behavior and ecology of Old World Luperini beetles of the genusAulacophora (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Summary The attraction of Old World leaf beetles in the genusAulacophora to kairomones and parakairomones which are effective lures for New WorldDiabrotica andAcalymma were investigated. Beetles captured on sticky traps baited with single and multicomponent lures were no different from the control traps for two species ofAulacophora. Yellow colored traps and squash blossoms are attractive toAulacophora beetles which detect sub-microgram quantities of cucurbitacins on silica gel. Leaf feeding behavior and flight activity data are correlated with varietal preference of threeAulacophora species. The common response byDiabrotica andAulacophora to cucurbitacins reinforces the two groups' coevolutionary association with the Cucurbitaceae. The apparent lack of a common response toCucurbita blossom volatiles suggests recent evolutionary pathways are substantially different for these two groups of beetles.     

Use of stochastic patch occupancy models in the California red-legged frog for Bayesian inference regarding past events and future persistence

Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.