滨海盐沼及其植物群落的分布与多样性

滨海盐沼是广泛存在于世界中、高纬度地区的一种湿地生态系统,具有抵御风暴潮灾害、净化污染物和为珍稀濒危生物提供适宜生境等重要的生态和经济价值。滨海盐沼因随高程变化而急剧变化的环境梯度和植物带状分布现象而为生态学者阐释自然界物种的分布机制提供了理想系统。主要概述了滨海盐沼的定义、特点、类型、全球分布以及潮汐作用、土壤盐度等环境因子特征;阐述了不同尺度下滨海盐沼的植物群落分布和多样性特征。在滨海盐沼植物群落的分布特征上,重点阐述了中尺度下的植物带状分布,即植物群落往往在白海向陆渐高的不同高程梯度上表现出显著的分带分布,不同植物各自占据该梯度上的一定区域。通常认为,带状分布是植物竞争和物理性胁迫共同调控的结果,但其在不同地理区域的普适性仍存争议。滨海植物群落多样性往往较低,在中、小尺度上盐沼植物多样性受控于盐度、潮汐等物理性胁迫、植物间相互作用等因子的作用;在大尺度上盐沼植物多样性可能随纬度增大而增加。系统深入地认识滨海盐沼植物群落生态格局和过程,将为气候变化、生物入侵等人类影响下的滨海盐沼生态系统的管理和恢复提供有益经验。     

江苏海岸盐沼植被演替的遥感图像分析

通过对江苏海岸盐沼陆地卫星影像资料的分析和必要的野外调查 ,研究了海岸人工栽植的先锋植被———互花米草历年的面积变化 ,揭示了盐沼植被从先锋植物群落到可垦指示植物群落的演替规律 ,以便全面掌握江苏海岸盐沼的形成过程 ,有利于合理开发利用并保护海岸盐沼环境     

潮间带湿地碳循环及其环境控制机制研究进展

有高等植被覆盖的潮间带湿地（红树林沼泽、盐沼）植被生产力高,有机碳分解速率低,CH4排放较弱,碳沉积速度快,是单位面积碳封存速率最高的生态系统之一。作为全球“蓝色碳汇”的主要贡献者,潮间带湿地在减缓含碳温室气体排放,降低全球温室效应方面具有重要潜力。潮间带湿地大多地处经济发达和人口密集的河口海岸地区,近年来其碳汇功能受到了越来越多人为干扰的威胁,正在发生着的气候变化则更增加了这种碳汇功能的不确定性。在全球变化背景下,对潮间带湿地碳循环及其环境控制机制的深入了解可以帮助更好地管理这种具有重要碳减排潜力的生态系统。文章综述国内外的相关研究,分析了潮间带湿地碳循环的基本过程和环境影响因素,探讨了多种人为干扰和气候变化要素对潮间带湿地碳循环的影响。潮间带湿地碳循环的基本过程主要包括垂直方向土壤（水）-大气界面和植被-大气界面CO2、CH4交换和沉积过程驱动的碳封存,以及水平方向与近海的碳交换。潮间带湿地的碳循环主要受潮汐/流、光合有效辐射、温度、盐度、水位、植物群落特征等非生物和生物因素的影响。围垦、富营养化、放牧很可能削弱潮间带湿地的碳汇功能,而外来植物入侵却可能在一定程度上增加其碳汇潜能。海平面上升、气温升高会增加潮间带湿地碳汇功能的脆弱性,CO2浓度升高的作用依赖于优势植物群落的光合作用途径,而多种并存气候变化要素的作用则更为复杂。全球范围内大量潮间带湿地已经遭受破坏甚至丧失,水文调控是对受损潮间带湿地碳汇功能进行修复和重建的有效措施。未来的研究需要更好的理解多种并存气候变化要素,及人为干扰和气候变化同时存在对潮间带湿地碳循环的交互效应,利用过程模型预测不同人为干扰和气候变化情境下潮间带湿地碳收支变化规律,并完善受损潮间带湿地碳汇功能修复的基础理论和实施方法。     

山西泽州自然保护区植物群落的数量分析

在野外样方调查基础上,采用TWINSPAN和DCA对泽州自然保护区植物群落进行了数量分类和排序研究.应用TWINSPAN方法将38个样方分为10组,根据植被分类的原则命名为10个群丛,并论述了各群丛的群落学特征.样方的DCA排序结果反映了植物群落类型与环境因子之间的关系,表明影响植物群落分布格局的生态因子主要有海拔高度、水分和温度,其中海拔高度是生态因子中对植物群落分布起决定性作用的因子.16个优势种的DCA排序的结果表明群落中优势种的分布格局所揭示的环境梯度与群落类型的分布梯度有很大的相似性,优势种的分布格局在很大程度上影响了植物群落的分布格局.排序结果与分类结果比较吻合,反映出植物群落类型和物种分布随环境因子梯度变化的趋势.     

洞庭湖湿地典型植物群落生活型构成及其环境影响因子

通过分析植物生活型可以了解植物群落结构及其环境的关系.采用样带法对洞庭湖湿地南荻、苔草、辣蓼和虉草4种植物群落物种多样性、植物生活型结构及环境因子开展调查研究.结果表明:洞庭湖湖湿地不同高程下典型植物群落物种多样性指数呈明显的规律性变化,表现为沿高程变化呈"V"型特征,即高、低程区高,中程区低,物种多样性指数的变化可能与地下水埋深及物种特性相关;植物群落生活型以一年生植物为主,其次为地下芽和地面芽植物,地上芽和高位芽植物分布较少;群落物种生活型类型及相同生活型植物在群落中的比例随高程的递增而增加;CCA分析表明,土壤物理性质的变化对植物群落生活型的构成影响极为重要,其中地下水位和高程的变化对植物生活型分布起着决定性作用.因此,地下水位和高程影响群落物种多样性指数,同时地下水位和高程的变化决定植物生活型的分布.     

土地利用对湿地土壤活性有机碳的影响研究进展

湿地生态系统土壤碳库的周转及碳源/汇过程对全球气候变化起着极其重要的作用,而土壤碳库中的活性碳组分对环境因子变化响应最为敏感,湿地土壤活性有机碳在湿地土壤碳、氮、磷等养分元素的生物地球化学循环方面起着十分重要的作用。不同的土地利用方式对湿地土壤活性有机碳组分的特征分布影响显著,综述了土壤活性有机碳内涵、组分及土地利用方式变化对湿地土壤活性有机碳多种组分的影响研究进展,展望不同土地利用方式下湿地土壤活性碳库的未来研究方向,并提出今后应加强不同土地利用方式下湿地生态系统土壤活性碳库与土壤微生物及土壤酶活性的关系研究,以期为评估湿地生态系统碳源/汇功能提供理论基础。     

鄱阳湖湿地植物群落分布特征及其对土壤环境因子的响应

土壤是湿地植被生长和植物群落分布的主要影响因子,研究土壤环境因子对鄱阳湖湿地植物群落分布特征的影响有助于深入理解湿地生态系统地球生物循环过程。通过研究鄱阳湖湿地不同生境下植物群落土壤环境因子特征变化,结合冗余分析(Redundancy analysis,RDA)探讨了鄱阳湖湿地主要土壤环境因子及其对植被分布的影响。结果表明,鄱阳湖湿地Jaccard指数、Sorensen指数和Cody指数均表现为样带1(藜蒿-苔草带Cynodon dactylon-Carex cinerascen)样带2(芦苇-藨草群落Phragmites communis-Phalaris arundinace)样带3(苔草-狗牙根群落Carex cinerascen-Artemisia selengens)样带4(苔草-藨草群落Carex cinerascen-Phalaris arundinace),随生境梯度呈递减规律;而Bray curtis指数则表现为样带1样带2样带3样带4,随生境梯度呈递增规律。土壤有机碳、全氮、硝态氮、铵态氮呈一致的变化规律,均表现为样带1样带2样带3样带4,而土壤速效磷表现为样带1样带3样带2样带4,不同植被带土壤全磷含量差异均不显著(P0.05)。相关性分析表明,不同植被带Bray curtis指数均与土壤养分呈负相关,Jaccard指数、Sorensen指数和Cody指数均呈正相关,沿河岸带的增加,其相关系数的绝对值逐渐增加,而土壤磷素与湿地多样性指数没有显著的相关性(P0.05)。RDA排序分析表明,土壤环境因子具有明显的生态梯度,土壤有机碳是影响研究区植被分布的最主要因素,土壤全氮是影响湿地植被分布的次要土壤环境因子。     

镇江内江湿地植物群落演替过程中土壤养分动态研究

镇江内江湿地是由长江携带的泥沙在镇江内江特有的水文条件下淤积而成,形成于江滩裸地上的植物群落开始了群落的原生演替过程。在此过程中,湿地的土壤养分状况随着植被的演替更迭,发生着协同演化的过程。为了进一步丰富群落演替理论,通过研究群落演替过程中不同阶段以及同一演替阶段不同层次土壤养分状况的时空变化,探索演替过程中的不同植被类型和土壤养分变化的内在联系及其互作效应。结果表明,随着演替进行,土壤的养分状况趋于改善,土壤有机质、全氮和速效磷含量呈上升趋势,只有速效钾的含量在后期芦苇阶段明显降低,这主要是由于收割芦苇将富含钾素的芦苇植株带出湿地系统所致。由于植物根系分布及枯落物多少的差异,使得各营养成分的垂直分布各异。     

沿黄河下游湖泊湿地植物群落演替及其多样性研究

沿黄河下游湖泊湿地是黄河健康生命系统的重要组成部分,其植物群落演替及其多样性研究对湿地及其生物多样性保护有重要意义。通过野外样地调查,分析了沿黄河下游湖泊湿地植物物种组成及其群落的演替模式,并计算了群落植物多样性特征指数,包括物种丰富度指数（S）、多样性Simpson指数（D）、Shannon-wiener指数（H′）、均匀度指数Pielou（E）。结果表明,研究区湖泊湿地共有77种植物,属于28科61属,除榆树Ulmus pumila Linn.为木本植物外,其余76种为草本植物,其中有1种轮藻门植物,1种蕨类植物;从空间来看植物群落演替过程为沉水植物菹草群落→纯水烛群落→水烛群落→水烛＋扁秆藨草群落→藨草群落→芦苇群落,青龙湖湿地水环境的变化,使湿地植物群落的类型也随之发生变化;群落多样性指数Shannon-wiener指数均低于1.12,Simpson指数为0.41~1,Pielou均匀度指数为0.8左右;芦苇群落的物种数最多,有32个物种,水烛群落以12种次之,菹草群落、水烛＋扁秆藨草群落和扁秆藨草群落中的物种数差别不大。沿黄河下游湿地植物群落多样性水平较低,湿地系统有向陆地系统过渡的趋势。     

湿地生态系统硅生物地球化学循环研究进展

硅在地壳中的丰度仅次于氧,是地球表面大多数土壤和岩石的一种基本成分,也是水生植物（特别是硅藻类）以及多种作物生长所必需的营养元素,还是控制陆地、海洋、沿海和内陆水生态系统机能的重要营养元素。目前关于全球硅的生物地球化学循环的研究多集中在陆地和海洋两大生态系统,而湿地生态系统中硅的循环过程、储存量尚不清楚。虽然在河口湿地开展一些关于硅的相关研究,但是硅在湿地的循环机制研究不够全面,尤其相比碳、氮、磷等元素,硅素研究甚少。而且,国内关于硅的相关研究更为匮乏。本文在总结国内外关于湿地生态系统硅素研究的基础上,综述硅在湿地生态系统的存在形态与分布特征,阐述硅在湿地生态系统中的基本循环过程,列举影响硅在湿地生态系统中循环的主要因素,如：湿地类型、水淹时间、季节变化、人类干扰等;提出在今后研究工作中应进一步探索硅在湿地生态系统中迁移、转化的机制,加深研究人类活动对湿地生态系统硅循环的影响,特别是应该加强研究河口潮汐湿地和沿海湿地生态系统硅的生物地球化学循环过程和储存量,有助于明确湿地生态系统对于硅的截留量;并弄清湿地中碳与硅含量之间的关系,从水文学角度分析湿地中排水、蒸发、洪期及滞留时间等因素对硅循环的影响,从而试图建立湿地硅循环模型,有助于预测湿地生态系统硅循环对沿海地区赤潮等富营养化现象和全球气候变化的影响。     

Consumer Control of Salt Marshes Driven by Human Disturbance

Abstract:  Salt marsh ecosystems are widely considered to be controlled exclusively by bottom–up forces, but there is mounting evidence that human disturbances are triggering consumer control in western Atlantic salt marshes, often with catastrophic consequences. In other marine ecosystems, human disturbances routinely dampen (e.g., coral reefs, sea grass beds) and strengthen (e.g., kelps) consumer control, but current marsh theory predicts little potential interaction between humans and marsh consumers. Thus, human modification of top–down control in salt marshes was not anticipated and was even discounted in current marsh theory, despite loud warnings about the potential for cascading human impacts from work in other marine ecosystems. In spite of recent experiments that have challenged established marsh dogma and demonstrated consumer-driven die-off of salt marsh ecosystems, government agencies and nongovernmental organizations continue to manage marsh die-offs under the old theoretical framework and only consider bottom–up forces as causal agents. This intellectual dependency of many coastal ecologists and managers on system-specific theory (i.e., marsh bottom–up theory) has the potential to have grave repercussions for coastal ecosystem management and conservation in the face of increasing human threats. We stress that marine vascular plant communities (salt marshes, sea grass beds, mangroves) are likely more vulnerable to runaway grazing and consumer-driven collapse than is currently recognized by theory, particularly in low-diversity ecosystems like Atlantic salt marshes.     

Secondary succession dynamics in estuarine marshes across landscape-scale salinity gradients

Secondary succession plays a critical role in driving community structure in natural communities, yet how succession dynamics vary with environmental context is generally unknown. We examined the importance of seedling and vegetative recruitment in the secondary succession of coastal marsh vegetation across a landscape-scale environmental stress gradient. Replicate bare patches were initiated in salt, brackish, and oligohaline marshes in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, USA, and allowed to recover unmanipulated or with colonizing seedlings or vegetative runners removed for three years. Seed dispersal and seed bank studies were conducted at the same sites. We found that rates of recovery were 3-10 times faster in brackish and oligohaline marshes than in salt marshes. The fast pace of recovery in oligohaline marshes was driven by seedling colonization, while recovery was dominated by vegetative runners in brackish marshes and by both seedlings and runners in salt marshes. Seed and seedling availability was much greater in oligohaline marshes with up to 24 times the seed bank density compared with salt marshes. In contrast to the facilitated succession generally found in salt marshes, oligohaline marshes follow the tolerance model of succession where numerous species colonize from seed and are slowly displaced by clonal grasses whose recovery is slowed by preemptive competition from seedlings, contributing to the higher species diversity of oligohaline marshes. These findings reveal fundamental differences in the dynamics and assembly of marsh plant communities along estuarine salinity gradients that are important for conceptually understanding wetlands and for guiding the management and restoration of various types of coastal marshes.     

Mechanisms mediating plant distributions across estuarine landscapes in a low-latitude tidal estuary

Understanding of how plant communities are organized and will respond to global changes requires an understanding of how plant species respond to multiple environmental gradients. We examined the mechanisms mediating the distribution patterns of tidal marsh plants along an estuarine gradient in Georgia (USA) using a combination of field transplant experiments and monitoring. Our results could not be fully explained by the "competition-to-stress hypothesis" (the current paradigm explaining plant distributions across estuarine landscapes). This hypothesis states that the upstream limits of plant distributions are determined by competition, and the downstream limits by abiotic stress. We found that competition was generally strong in freshwater and brackish marshes, and that conditions in brackish and salt marshes were stressful to freshwater marsh plants, results consistent with the competition-to-stress hypothesis. Four other aspects of our results, however, were not explained by the competition-to-stress hypothesis. First, several halophytes found the freshwater habitat stressful and performed best (in the absence of competition) in brackish or salt marshes. Second, the upstream distribution of one species was determined by the combination of both abiotic and biotic (competition) factors. Third, marsh productivity (estimated by standing biomass) was a better predictor of relative biotic interaction intensity (RII) than was salinity or flooding, suggesting that productivity is a better indicator of plant stress than salinity or flooding gradients. Fourth, facilitation played a role in mediating the distribution patterns of some plants. Our results illustrate that even apparently simple abiotic gradients can encompass surprisingly complex processes mediating plant distributions.     

Regulation of benthic algal and animal communities by salt marsh plants: impact of shading

Plant cover is a fundamental feature of many coastal marine and terrestrial systems and controls the structure of associated animal communities. Both natural and human-mediated changes in plant cover influence abiotic sediment properties and thus have cascading impacts on the biotic community. Using clipping (structural) and light (shading) manipulations in two salt marsh vegetation zones (one dominated by Spartina foliosa and one by Salicornia virginica), we tested whether these plant species exert influence on abiotic environmental factors and examined the mechanisms by which these changes regulate the biotic community. In an unshaded (plant and shade removal) treatment, marsh soils exhibited harsher physical properties, a microalgal community composition shift toward increased diatom dominance, and altered macrofaunal community composition with lower species richness, a larger proportion of insect larvae, and a smaller proportion of annelids, crustaceans, and oligochaetes compared to shaded (plant removal, shade mimic) and control treatment plots. Overall, the shaded treatment plots were similar to the controls. Plant cover removal also resulted in parallel shifts in microalgal and macrofaunal isotopic signatures of the most dynamic species. This suggests that animal responses are seen mainly among microalgae grazers and may be mediated by plant modification of microalgae. Results of these experiments demonstrate how light reduction by the vascular plant canopy can control salt marsh sediment communities in an arid climate. This research facilitates understanding of sequential consequences of changing salt marsh plant cover associated with climate or sea level change, habitat degradation, marsh restoration, or plant invasion.     

Nitrogen accumulation and plant species replacement in three salt marsh systems in the Wadden Sea

Salt marsh development on the coastal barrier island of Schiermonnikoog (The Netherlands) was compared with two other salt marsh systems in the Wadden Sea. Accretion rate, nitrogen accumulation and changes in plant species composition were investigated using chronosequences. The age of the marsh was estimated from aerial photographs and old maps. In 7230 plots, the elevation of the marsh surface, the thickness of the sediment layer (clay) and the presence of plant species was recorded. In addition, the nitrogen pool was measured at each successional stage. Accretion rates were similar in the three salt marshes. Higher accretion rates were found at younger marshes. A strong linear relationship between nitrogen pool size and thickness of the clay layer was found for the three marshes. The accumulation rate of nitrogen is therefore strongly related to the accretion rate. Thus, more nitrogen is present in the sediment of later successional stages where more clay has accumulated. On the high salt marsh (55 cm+MHT),Ameria maritima disappeared andArtemisia maritima, Juncus gerardi andElymus athericus established at sites with a thicker clay layer. On the low salt marsh (25 cm+MHT),Plantago maritima, Puccinellia maritima andLimonium vulgare disappeared andAtriplex (Halimione) portulacoides established. Apparently, with the accumulation of clay and therefore of nitrogen, tall growing species take over in salt marshes not grazed by livestock.     

Regional Ontogeny of New England Salt Marsh Die‐Off

Coastal areas are among the world's most productive and highly affected ecosystems. Centuries of human activity on coastlines have led to overexploitation of marine predators, which in turn has led to cascading ecosystem‐level effects. Human effects and approaches to mediating them, however, differ regionally due to gradients in biotic and abiotic factors. Salt marsh die‐off on Cape Cod, Massachusetts (U.S.A.), triggered by a recreational‐fishing‐induced trophic cascade that has released herbivorous crabs from predator control, has been ongoing since 1976. Similar salt marsh die‐offs have been reported in Long Island Sound and Narragansett Bay (U.S.A.), but the driving mechanism of these die‐offs has not been examined. We used field experiments to assess trophic interactions and historical reconstructions of 24 New England marshes to test the hypotheses that recreational fishing and predator depletion are a regional trigger of salt marsh die‐off in New England and that die‐offs in Long Island Sound and Narragansett Bay are more recent than those on Cape Cod. Predator depletion was the general trigger of marsh die‐off and explained differences in herbivorous crab abundance and the severity of die‐off across regions. Die‐offs in Long Island Sound and Narragansett Bay are following a trajectory similar to die‐off on Cape Cod, but are approximately 20 years behind those on Cape Cod. As a result, die‐off currently affects 31.2% (SE 2.2) of low‐marsh areas in Long Island Sound and Narragansett Bay, less than half the severity of die‐off on Cape Cod. Our results contribute to the growing evidence that recreational fishing is an increasing threat to coastal ecosystems and that studying the effects of human activity at regional scales can provide insight into local effects and aid in early detection and potential remediation. Ontogenia Regional de un Incremento en la Mortandad en una Marisma Salada de Nueva Inglaterra     

Large-scale effects of a small herbivore on salt-marsh vegetation succession—A comparative study on three Wadden Sea islands

Grazing by livestock is used as a management tool to prevent the dominance of a single tall-growing specises during succession on European salt marshes. The effects of natural small herbivores are often neglected by managers. Long-term exclosure experiments on the island of Schiermonnikoog show that hares retard vegetation succession at the early stages of salt-marsh development. In the present study we test whether we can scale-up these exclosure studies to a whole salt-marsh system. We compared 30 years of undisturbed vegetation succession at the Wadden Sea islands of Schiermonnikoog, Rottumerplaat (both The Netherlands) and Mellum (Germany). Salt-marsh development started at all sites in the early 1970s. Hares have been present only on Schiermonnikoog. At each site an area was selected covering a gradient from high to low salt marsh. Surface elevation and clay thickness were measured and a vegetation map was made on the three islands. The areas showed similar clay thickness at low surface elevation, indicating similar sedimentation ratesand hence nitrogen inputs. Rottumerplaat and Mellum showed a higher dominance of the late successional speciesAtriplex portulacoides in the low marsh andElymus athericus in the high marsh compared to Schiermonnikoog. Typical mid-successional, important food plant species for hares and geese had a higher abundance at Schiermonnikoog. Patterns of vegetation development in the absence of hares followed the observed patterns in the smallscale exclosure experiments at Schiermonnikoog. Without hare grazing, vegetation succession proceeds more rapidly and leads to the dominance of tall-growing species in earlier stages of succession. The present study shows that next to large herbivores, small herbivores potentially have largescale effects on salt-marsh vegetation succession during the early successional stages.     

Measuring sedimentation in tidal marshes: a review on methods and their applicability in biogeomorphological studies

It is increasingly recognised that interactions between geomorphological and biotic processes control the functioning of many ecosystem types as described e.g. by the ecological theory of ecosystem engineering. Consequently, the need for specific bio-geomorphological research methods is growing recently. Much research on bio-geomorphological processes is done in coastal marshes. These areas provide clear examples of ecosystem engineering as well as other bio-geomorphological processes: Marsh vegetation slows down tidal currents and hence stimulates the process of sedimentation, while vice versa, the sedimentation controls ecological processes like vegetation succession. This review is meant to give insights in the various available methods to measure sedimentation, with special attention to their suitability to quantify bio-geomorphological interactions. The choice of method used to measure sedimentation is important to obtain the correct parameters to understand the biogeomorphology of tidal salt marshes. This review, therefore, aims to be a tool for decision making regarding the processes to be measured and the methods to be used. We, subdivide the methods into those measuring suspended sediment concentration (A), sediment deposition (B), accretion (C) and surface-elevation change (D). With this review, we would like to further encourage interdisciplinary studies in the fields of ecology and geomorphology.     

Predictors of specialist avifaunal decline in coastal marshes

Coastal marshes are one of the world's most productive ecosystems. Consequently, they have been heavily used by humans for centuries, resulting in ecosystem loss. Direct human modifications such as road crossings and ditches and climatic stressors such as sea‐level rise and extreme storm events have the potential to further degrade the quantity and quality of marsh along coastlines. We used an 18‐year marsh‐bird database to generate population trends for 5 avian species (Rallus crepitans, Tringa semipalmata semipalmata, Ammodramus nelsonii subvirgatus, Ammodramus caudacutus, and Ammodramus maritimus) that breed almost exclusively in tidal marshes, and are potentially vulnerable to marsh degradation and loss as a result of anthropogenic change. We generated community and species trends across 3 spatial scales and explored possible drivers of the changes we observed, including marsh ditching, tidal restriction through road crossings, local rates of sea‐level rise, and potential for extreme flooding events. The specialist community showed negative trends in tidally restricted marshes (?2.4% annually from 1998 to 2012) but was stable in unrestricted marshes across the same period. At the species level, we found negative population trends in 3 of the 5 specialist species, ranging from ?4.2% to 9.0% annually. We suggest that tidal restriction may accelerate degradation of tidal marsh resilience to sea‐level rise by limiting sediment supply necessary for marsh accretion, resulting in specialist habitat loss in tidally restricted marshes. Based on our findings, we predict a collapse of the global population of Saltmarsh Sparrows (A. caudacutus) within the next 50 years and suggest that immediate conservation action is needed to prevent extinction of this species. We also suggest mitigation actions to restore sediment supply to coastal marshes to help sustain this ecosystem into the future.