Forecasting the outbreak of moorland wildfires in the English Peak District

Warmer, drier summers brought by climate change increase the potential risk of wildfires on the moorland of the Peak District of northern England. Fires are costly to fight, damage the ecosystem, harm water catchments, cause erosion scars and disrupt transport. Fires release carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Accurate forecasts of the timing of fires help deployment of fire fighting resources.     

Development of a Model for Simulation of Solute Transport in a Stream–Aquifer System

A model for simulation of solute transport in a dynamic stream–aquifer system is developed by integrating four existing sub-models. Interface packages are created to link the sub-models. The developed model is successfully used to simulate chloride transport in the stream–aquifer system of the Arkansas River and the Equus Beds Aquifer in Kansas and demonstrates that chloride concentration in the aquifer decreases in the vicinity of the simulated channel over time.     

Seasonal exports of phosphorus from intensively fertilised nested grassland catchments

We carried out a one year (2002) study of phosphorus (P) loss from soil to water in three nested grassland catchments with known P input in chemical fertilizer and animal liquid slurry applications. Chemical fertilizer was applied to the grasslands between March and September and animal slurry was applied over the twelve months. The annual chemical P fertilizer applications for the 17 and 211 ha catchments were 16.4 and 23.7 kg P/ha respectively and the annual slurry applications were 10.7 and 14.0 kg P/ha, respectively. The annual total phosphorus (TP) export in stream-flow was 2.61, 2.48 and 1.61 kg P/ha for the 17, 211 and 1524 ha catchments, respectively, compared with a maximum permissible (by regulation) annual export of ca. 0.35 kg P/ha. The export rate (ratio of P export to P in land applications) was 9.6% and 6.6% from the 17 and 211 ha catchments, respectively. On average, 70% of stream flow and 85% of the P export occurred during the five wet months (October to February) indicating that when precipitation is much greater than evaporation, the hydrological conditions are most favourable for P export. However the soil quality and land use history may vary the results. Particulate P made up 22%, 43% and 37% of the TP export at the 17, 211 and 1524 ha catchment areas, respectively. As the chemical fertilizer was spread during the grass growth months (March to September), it has less immediate impact on stream water quality than the slurry applications. We also show that as the catchment scale increases, the P concentrations and P export decrease, confirming dilution due to increasing rural catchment size. In the longer term, the excess P from fertilizer maintains high soil P levels, an antecedent condition favourable to P loss from soil to water. This study confirms the significant negative water quality impact of excess P applications, particularly liquid animal slurry applications in wet winter months. The findings suggest that restricted P application in wet months can largely reduce the P losses from soil to water.     

The role of coherent turbulent structures in explaining scalar dissimilarity within the canopy sublayer

Scalar similarity is widely assumed in models and interpretation of micro-meteorological measurements. However, in the air space within and just above the canopy (the so-called canopy sublayer, CSL) scalar similarity is generally violated. The scalar dissimilarity has been mainly attributed to differences in the distribution of sources and sinks throughout the canopy. Since large-scale coherent structures in the CSL (e.g. double roller and sweep/ejection) arise from the instabilities generated by the interaction between the mean flow and the canopy, they may encode key dynamical features about the production term responsible for the source–sink dissimilarity of scalars. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the geometric attributes of coherent structures are tightly coupled to the onset and the vertical extent of scalar dissimilarity within the CSL. Large-eddy simulation (LES) runs were used to investigate the role of coherent structures in explaining scalar dissimilarity among three scalars (potential air temperature, water vapour and $\text{ CO }_2$ concentration) within the CSL under near-neutral conditions for horizontally uniform but vertically varying vegetation leaf area density. It was shown that coherent structures, when identified from the first mode of a novel proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) approach, were able to capture some features of the scalar dissimilarity in the original LES field. This skill was quantified by calculating scalar–scalar correlation coefficients and turbulent Schmidt numbers of the original field and the coherent structures, respectively. However, coherent structures tend to magnify the magnitude of scalar–scalar correlation, particularly in cases where this correlation is already strong. The ability of coherent structures to describe more complex features such as the scalar sweep-ejection cycle was also explored. It was shown that the first mode of the POD does not capture the relative importance of sweeps to ejections in the original LES field. However, the superposition of few secondary coherent structures, derived from higher order POD modes, largely diminish the discrepancies between the original field and the POD expansion.     

Secondary succession dynamics in estuarine marshes across landscape-scale salinity gradients

Secondary succession plays a critical role in driving community structure in natural communities, yet how succession dynamics vary with environmental context is generally unknown. We examined the importance of seedling and vegetative recruitment in the secondary succession of coastal marsh vegetation across a landscape-scale environmental stress gradient. Replicate bare patches were initiated in salt, brackish, and oligohaline marshes in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, USA, and allowed to recover unmanipulated or with colonizing seedlings or vegetative runners removed for three years. Seed dispersal and seed bank studies were conducted at the same sites. We found that rates of recovery were 3-10 times faster in brackish and oligohaline marshes than in salt marshes. The fast pace of recovery in oligohaline marshes was driven by seedling colonization, while recovery was dominated by vegetative runners in brackish marshes and by both seedlings and runners in salt marshes. Seed and seedling availability was much greater in oligohaline marshes with up to 24 times the seed bank density compared with salt marshes. In contrast to the facilitated succession generally found in salt marshes, oligohaline marshes follow the tolerance model of succession where numerous species colonize from seed and are slowly displaced by clonal grasses whose recovery is slowed by preemptive competition from seedlings, contributing to the higher species diversity of oligohaline marshes. These findings reveal fundamental differences in the dynamics and assembly of marsh plant communities along estuarine salinity gradients that are important for conceptually understanding wetlands and for guiding the management and restoration of various types of coastal marshes.