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1.
除草剂西玛津对非洲爪蟾生存和性腺发育的影响   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1  
为了研究三嗪类除草剂西玛津对两栖动物非洲爪蟾(Xenopus laevis)生存和性腺发育的毒性作用,并且与另一种三嗪类除草剂阿特拉津的毒性进行比较,将非洲爪蟾从46/47阶段开始暴露西玛津和阿特拉津到变态1个月后停止,再饲养2个月后将其解剖,取性腺做形态学和组织学观察.暴露期间,每天记录蝌蚪的生长发育情况和存活率.结果显示,在暴露的第1周内(蝌蚪处于46~50阶段),西玛津可导致蝌蚪死亡率明显升高,随后的时间内西玛津对非洲爪蟾的生存不再有明显影响,但却使发育阶段明显的不整齐.阿特拉津对非洲爪蟾的生存和发育则没有明显影响.西玛津和阿特拉津对非洲爪蟾性腺的总体形态和性别比没有明显影响,然而两种除草剂均在一定程度上导致了睾丸组织学的改变.西玛津可能与阿特拉津一样能够通过雌性化/去雄性化作用影响非洲爪蟾睾丸的发育.  相似文献   

2.
全氟烷基磺酸盐(PFASs)在工业生产和生活中广泛应用,某些PFASs已成为环境中普遍的污染物。鉴于对动物和人类的潜在毒性,全氟辛烷磺酸盐(PFOS)已被禁用,由一些半衰期相对较短的短链PFASs(如全氟丁烷磺酸盐,PFBS)替代。虽然四碳的PFBS和六碳的全氟己烷磺酸盐(PFHS)已经广泛使用,但目前对其毒性及其机制的了解很少。通过检测发育毒性和致畸性的非洲爪蟾胚胎致畸试验(FETAX),得到PFOS、PFHS和PFBS半致死浓度(LC50),半致畸浓度(EC50)和最小抑制生长浓度(MCIG),比较研究了3种化合物的发育毒性。结果发现,PFOS的LC50、EC50和MCIG分别为51.46、108.20和35mg·L-1。PFHS和PFBS的LC50大于100mg·L-1,对胚胎形态和生长没有明显影响。PFASs暴露引起非洲爪蟾胚胎运动行为异常。FETAX结果表明,PFOS急性发育毒性明显大于PFHS和PFBS。  相似文献   

3.
多氯联苯(Aroclor 1254)对非洲爪蟾变态发育的影响   总被引:1,自引:2,他引:1  
为了研究多氯联苯(Aroclor 1254)对非洲爪蟾变态发育的影响,将非洲爪蟾受精卵暴露在一定浓度(0、400ng·L-1、2μg·L-1、10μg·L-1、20μg·L-1)的Aroclor 1254中,直至完全变态.结果表明,20μg·L-1Aroclor1254暴露可使变态所需时间显著延长(p<0.05),低于20μg·L-1的各组变态所需时间与对照组无显著差异.2μg·L-1以上的Aroclor1254暴露可使蝌蚪甲状腺发生明显的组织学改变,包括甲状腺组织滤泡扩张、胶体面积相对缩小,滤泡细胞增殖、高度增加,并且这种变化随暴露剂量的增加而愈发明显.提示多氯联苯可干扰非洲爪蟾的变态发育,引起甲状腺组织学改变.采用定量组织病理学技术检测甲状腺激素干扰物较为灵敏,方法简单易行,是一种切实可行的筛选和确证甲状腺干扰物的体内方法.  相似文献   

4.
体外培养的神经细胞是神经毒性机制研究和神经毒物筛查的重要材料.目前鼠体外神经细胞的应用最为广泛.鉴于近年来发育生物学的模型动物非洲爪蟾越来越多地应用于毒理学研究,论文建立了一种体外培养非洲爪蟾脑神经细胞的方法.该方法取52~53阶段的非洲爪蟾蝌蚪的脑组织,在L-15培养液中直接吹打获得分散细胞,接种于包被多聚赖氨酸的培养板中,22℃培养.培养细胞状态良好,72小时后神经元细胞初步建立神经网络.用β2tubulin7B9可对脑神经元细胞进行荧光染色,鉴别神经突的生长和神经网络的形成.与鼠脑神经元细胞体外培养方法比较,该方法具有无需胰蛋白酶分离、无需胶质细胞共培养、可同时操作多只脑、能获得大量细胞等简单快捷的特点.因此,体外培养的非洲爪蟾蝌蚪脑神经细胞可作为目前体外神经毒理研究中鼠脑神经元的补充材料,用于神经毒性机制的研究和神经毒物的筛查.  相似文献   

5.
全氟烷基磺酸盐(PFASs)在工业生产和生活中广泛应用,某些PFASs已成为环境中普遍的污染物。鉴于对动物和人类的潜在毒性,全氟辛烷磺酸盐(PFOS)已被禁用,由一些半衰期相对较短的短链PFASs(如全氟丁烷磺酸盐,PFBS)替代。虽然四碳的PFBS和六碳的全氟己烷磺酸盐(PFHS)已经广泛使用,但目前对其毒性及其机制的了解很少。通过检测发育毒性和致畸性的非洲爪蟾胚胎致畸试验(FETAX),得到PFOS、PFHS和PFBS半致死浓度(LC50),半致畸浓度(EC50)和最小抑制生长浓度(MCIG),比较研究了3种化合物的发育毒性。结果发现,PFOS的LC50、EC50和MCIG分别为51.46、108.20和35mg·L-1。PFHS和PFBS的LC50大于100mg·L-1,对胚胎形态和生长没有明显影响。PFASs暴露引起非洲爪蟾胚胎运动行为异常。FETAX结果表明,PFOS急性发育毒性明显大于PFHS和PFBS。  相似文献   

6.
本文旨在探讨低剂量PCBs和PBDEs单一暴露和复合暴露的甲状腺干扰作用.非洲爪蟾46期蝌蚪单独或共暴露于100 ng·L-1Aroclor 1254和BDE-209至62期.暴露结束后检测变态时间、甲状腺组织学结构、甲状腺相关基因表达水平等指标.结果发现,Aroclor 1254和BDE-209单独暴露使蝌蚪变态发育呈现一定的延迟趋势,而复合暴露却显著抑制蝌蚪变态发育;所有的暴露处理均导致蝌蚪甲状腺组织代偿性改变,表现为胶质面积减少,甲状腺滤泡上皮细胞高度显著增加;Aroclor 1254单独暴露显著抑制甲状腺激素受体(TRA)、Ⅱ和Ⅲ型脱碘酶(DI-2,DI-3)的表达,BDE-209单独暴露仅抑制DI-2的表达,但BDE-209协同促进Aroclor1254对肝脏内TRA表达的抑制作用.综上,低剂量Aroclor 1254和BDE-209单独暴露和复合暴露对非洲爪蟾变态发育具有一定的甲状腺抑制作用,复合暴露的抑制作用明显高于单一暴露的作用.鉴于甲状腺系统在脊椎动物生长发育过程中的重要作用,低剂量PCBs和PBDEs复合暴露的甲状腺干扰效应应该受到格外关注.  相似文献   

7.
选择合适的尤其是本土生物种进行化学品生态毒性评估,对于各国化学品的环境管理十分重要.本文选择我国本土两栖种黑斑蛙的胚胎为试验生物,以半数致死浓度LC50、半数致畸浓度TC50、致畸指数TI及最小抑制生长浓度MCIG为终点指标,建立了黑斑蛙胚胎发育毒性试验方法.以五氯酚、视磺酸、氯化镉、重铬酸钾为测试物研究了方法的敏感性,并以五氯酚为测试物研究了方法的可重复性.结果显示:五氯酚、视磺酸、氯化镉和重铬酸钾对黑斑蛙胚胎的LC50分别为572.3 μg·L-1、54.8 μg·L-1、6.8 mg·L-1和97.5 mg· L-1.五氯酚、视磺酸和氯化镉对黑斑蛙胚胎的TC50分别为246.5 μg·L-1、18.7 μg· L-1和3.4 mg·L-1,TI分别为2.3、2.9和2.0,MCIG分别为160.0 μg· L-1、10.1 μg·L-1和2.4 mg·L-1.重复性试验发现,五氯酚的LC50、TC50、TI及MCIG的变异系数分别为12.6%、18.0%、23.0%和18.6%.与文献中非洲爪蟾胚胎试验的数据比较,这些数据显示黑斑蛙胚胎与非洲爪蟾胚胎对测试物的敏感性存在一定的差异,各个终点指标的变异系数相当.因此,本文建立的黑斑蛙胚胎发育毒性试验可以用于化学品的发育毒性评价,为我国化学品环境管理提供技术支持.  相似文献   

8.
PFOS及其4种替代品对两栖动物非洲爪蟾和黑斑蛙蝌蚪的急性毒性结果为:用调聚法合成的织物三防整理剂对非洲爪蟾蝌蚪和黑斑蛙蝌蚪的96h-LC50分别为8和21mg·L-1,而PFOS对两种蝌蚪的96h-LC50分别为92和81mg·L-1。此实验结果说明织物三防整理剂的急性毒性高于PFOS。用电解氟化法合成的C4、C6织物三防整理剂和50%的全氟丁基有机铵盐阳离子表面活性剂浓度在100mg·L-1时,对两种蝌蚪都没有毒性。这说明,从急性毒性的角度,C4、C6织物三防整理剂和表面活性剂可作为PFOS的替代品使用,但是织物三防整理剂的急性毒性比PFOS大,作为替代品使用应慎重考虑。另外,PFOS和织物三防整理剂对黑斑蛙蝌蚪的急性毒性与对非洲爪蟾蝌蚪的急性毒性存在差异。出于保护我国本土两栖动物的目的,使用黑斑蛙开展毒性评价比使用非洲爪蟾更有现实意义。  相似文献   

9.
用非洲爪蟾胚胎致畸实验和黑斑蛙胚胎发育毒性实验,比较研究了PFOS及其4种替代品对两栖动物胚胎的发育毒性。结果发现,用调聚法合成的织物三防整理剂和50%的全氟丁基有机铵盐阳离子表面活性剂同PFOS一样对非洲爪蟾胚胎有明显毒性,且织物三防整理剂和表面活性剂的毒性强于PFOS;电解氟化法合成的C4织物及C6织物三防整理剂(以下简称C4及C6织物三防整理剂)对非洲爪蟾胚胎没有明显毒性。与非洲爪蟾不同,PFOS和4种替代品对黑斑蛙胚胎没有明显毒性。结果显示,从生物安全性的角度分析,C4和C6织物三防整理剂可作为PFOS的替代品使用,而织物三防整理剂和表面活性剂的毒性比PFOS大,作为PFOS替代品使用需要慎重考虑。  相似文献   

10.
除草剂乙草胺对非洲爪蟾性腺发育的影响   总被引:4,自引:2,他引:4  
使用性腺发育对内分泌干扰作用敏感的两栖动物非洲爪蟾作为模型动物,通过考察性别比、性腺整体形态和组织学形态来揭示乙草胺对其性腺发育的影响,从而确定乙草胺是否具有内分泌干扰活性.46/47期蝌蚪经不同浓度(5μg·L-1、10μg·L-1、20μg·L-1)的乙草胺暴露处理至变态后1个月,在变态结束后3个月时,解剖性腺、鉴别雌雄并固定性腺做组织切片.实验中对照组所有性腺都为典型的卵巢或睾丸,雌性百分率为48.78%(20/41).而乙草胺暴露组却出现了明显的异常睾丸,其总体上是睾丸,但又带有部分卵巢的特征,在统计性别时将具有异常睾丸的爪蟾归为雄性.5μg·L-1、10μg·L-1、20μg·L-1暴露组的雌性百分率分别为:57.14%(24/42)、66.67%(22/36)、55.26%(21/38).虽经统计分析无显著性差异,但乙草胺暴露组中雌性多于雄性的趋势和出现带有雌性特征的雄性的现象,一定程度上却暗示了乙草胺可能对非洲爪蟾的性腺发育有雌性化作用.正常睾丸的组织学结构应有发育成熟的生精小管,其内有各个时期的精子囊和生精细胞及精子.但经乙草胺处理的爪蟾睾丸却表现出几种明显的异常:没有生精小管,相反却像发育早期的睾丸一样,充满大量的精原细胞,完全没有生精细胞和精子;有生精小管结构,但其内精子囊结构不明显,生精细胞少并且排列混乱,其间有很大的空隙;睾丸出现腔隙,并有大量体细胞存在,这种结构与57期的卵巢相似;睾丸中出现异常的生精细胞,与58期卵巢的卵细胞相似;睾丸组织中有明显的卵细胞散布.组织学研究发现的乙草胺导致的睾丸结构证明了乙草胺对非洲爪蟾的睾丸发育有抑制雄性化作用和雌性化作用,即乙草胺对非洲爪蟾的性腺发育有内分泌干扰作用.  相似文献   

11.
Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación  相似文献   

12.
Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.  相似文献   

13.
Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.  相似文献   

14.
Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.  相似文献   

15.
Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km2 around Bonga and 3000 km2 in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques  相似文献   

16.
Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.  相似文献   

17.
As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland where cashmere‐producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis. In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3‐fold increase in local profits for herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica).That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4‐fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur)in trans‐Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China's Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard(Panthera uncia), khulan(Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic‐level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere. Globalización del Mercado de Cachemira y la Declinación de Mamíferos Mayores en Asia Central  相似文献   

18.
The high conservational value of the lichen-rich vegetation and landscape of the marine foreland Ørkenen on the isle of Anholt is treated from a Danish as well as a European perspective. The sensitivity of the lichen-rich vegetation to physical disturbance is emphasized. The impact of invasive species such asPinus mugo as well as the effect of atmospheric deposition of nutrients on the heaths at Anholt is described. Considerations related to the development of a management plan for Ørkenen are presented.  相似文献   

19.
Summary The attraction of Old World leaf beetles in the genusAulacophora to kairomones and parakairomones which are effective lures for New WorldDiabrotica andAcalymma were investigated. Beetles captured on sticky traps baited with single and multicomponent lures were no different from the control traps for two species ofAulacophora. Yellow colored traps and squash blossoms are attractive toAulacophora beetles which detect sub-microgram quantities of cucurbitacins on silica gel. Leaf feeding behavior and flight activity data are correlated with varietal preference of threeAulacophora species. The common response byDiabrotica andAulacophora to cucurbitacins reinforces the two groups' coevolutionary association with the Cucurbitaceae. The apparent lack of a common response toCucurbita blossom volatiles suggests recent evolutionary pathways are substantially different for these two groups of beetles.  相似文献   

20.
Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.  相似文献   

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