High richness and dense seeding enhance grassland restoration establishment but have little effect on drought response

Restorations commonly utilize seed addition to formerly arable lands where the development of native plant communities is severely dispersal limited. However, variation in seed addition practices may profoundly affect restoration outcomes. Theory and observations predict that species-rich seed mixtures and seeding at high densities should enhance native plant community establishment, minimize exotic species cover, and may promote resistance and resilience to, and recovery from, environmental perturbations. We studied the post-seeding establishment of native plant communities in large grassland restoration plots, which were sown at two densities crossed with two levels of species richness on formerly arable land in Nebraska, USA, and their responses to drought. To evaluate drought resistance, recovery, and resilience of restored plant communities, we erected rainfall manipulation structures and tracked the response of seeded species cover and total plant biomass during experimental drought relative to controls and in the post-drought growing season. High seed richness and high-density seeding treatments resulted in greater richness and cover of native, seeded species per 0.5 m2 compared to low-richness and low-density treatments. Cover differences in response to seed mixture richness were driven by native forbs. Richness and cover of exotic species were lowest in high-richness and high-density treatments. We found little evidence of differential drought resistance, recovery, and resilience among seeding treatments. Increases in exotic species across years were restricted to drought subplots, and were not affected by seeding treatments. Grassland restoration was generally enhanced and exotic cover reduced both by the use of high-richness seed mixtures and high-density seeding. Given the lack of restoration treatment effects on the resistance, recovery, or resilience of seeded species exposed to drought, and the increases in exotic species following drought, other forms of active management may be needed to produce restored plant communities that are robust to climate change.     

Government green procurement spillovers: Evidence from municipal building policies in California

We study how government green procurement policies influence private-sector demand for similar products. Specifically, we measure the impact of municipal policies requiring governments to construct green buildings on private-sector adoption of the US Green Building Council?s Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) standard. Using matching methods, panel data, and instrumental variables, we find that government procurement rules produce spillover effects that stimulate both private-sector adoption of the LEED standard and investments in green building expertise by local suppliers. These findings suggest that government procurement policies can accelerate the diffusion of new environmental standards that require coordinated complementary investments by various types of private adopter.     

Intergenerational effects of climate generate cohort variation in lizard reproductive performance

An evaluation of the link between climate and population dynamics requires understanding of climate effects both within and across generations. In ectothermic vertebrates, demographic responses to climate changes should crucially depend on balancing needs for heat and water. Here, we studied how temperature and rainfall regimes experienced before and during adulthood influenced reproductive performances (litter size, offspring size, and survival) in a natural population of the live-bearing common lizard, Lacerta vivipara, monitored continuously from 1989 to 2004. Rainfall regime, but not temperature, had both immediate and delayed effects on these reproductive performances. Rainfall during the first month of life was positively correlated with juvenile survival. Females experiencing more rainfall during gestation produced smaller neonates that showed greater survival when controlling for the positive effect of body size on survival. Furthermore, females that experienced heavier rainfall when in utero produced fewer but longer neonates during adulthood. These demographic effects of rainfall on adult reproductive traits may come from maternal effects of climate conditions and/or from delayed effects of rainfall on the environment experienced early in life. Irrespective of the precise mechanism, however, this study provides evidence of intergenerational climate effects in natural populations of an ectothermic vertebrate.     

Brown backstops versus the green paradox

Anticipated climate policies are ineffective when fossil fuel owners respond by shifting supply intertemporally (the green paradox). This mechanism relies crucially on the exhaustibility of fossil fuels. We analyze the effect of anticipated climate policies on emissions in a simple model with two fossil fuels: one scarce and dirty (e.g. oil), the other abundant and dirtier (e.g. coal). We derive conditions for a ‘green orthodox’: anticipated climate policies may reduce current emissions. The model can also be used to analyze spatial carbon leakage. Calibrations suggest that intertemporal carbon leakage (from 0% to 8%) is a relatively minor concern.     

Too hot to handle: The effects of high temperatures during pregnancy on adult welfare outcomes

This paper studies the long-term effects of high temperatures during pregnancy on later-life outcomes for Chinese adults. Adults experienced one additional high-temperature day during in utero period, on average, attain 0.02 fewer years of schooling, increase the risk of illiteracy by 0.18%, achieve lower standardized word-test score by 0.48%, and are shorter by 0.02 cm. The impacts are greater in the first and second trimesters. Additionally, we find that income effects represent one important channel to explain the adverse effects of hot weather. Back-of-the-envelope predictions suggest that by the end of the 21st century, a 0.14–0.54 reduction in years of education and a 0.21–0.84 cm reduction in height is likely to result from climate change, ceteris paribus.     

The value of information for integrated assessment models of climate change

We estimate the value of information (VOI) for three key parameters of climate integrated assessment models (IAMs): marginal damages at low temperature anomalies, marginal damages at high temperature anomalies, and equilibrium climate sensitivity. Most empirical studies of climate damages have examined temperature anomalies up to 3 °C, while some recent theoretical studies emphasize the risks of “climate catastrophes,” which depend on climate sensitivity and on marginal damages at higher temperature anomalies. We use a new IAM to estimate the VOI for each parameter over a range of assumed levels of study precision based on prior probability distributions calibrated using results from previous studies. We measure the VOI as the maximum fixed fraction of consumption that a social planner would be willing to pay to conduct a new study before setting a carbon tax. Our central results suggest that the VOI is greatest for marginal damages at high temperature anomalies.     

Climate policies and skill-biased employment dynamics: Evidence from EU countries

The political acceptability of climate policies is undermined by job-killing arguments, especially for the least-skilled workers. However, evidence of the distributional impacts for different workers remains scant. We examine the associations between climate policies, proxied by energy prices, and workforce skills for 14 European countries and 15 industrial sectors over the period 1995–2011. Using a shift-share instrumental variable estimator and controlling for the influence of automation and globalization, we find that climate policies have been skill biased against manual workers and have favoured technicians. The long-term change in energy prices accounted for between 9.2% and 17.5% (resp. 4.2% and 8.0%) of the increase (resp. decrease) in the share of technicians (resp. manual workers).     

Estimating Climate Resilience for Conservation across Geophysical Settings

Conservationists need methods to conserve biological diversity while allowing species and communities to rearrange in response to a changing climate. We developed and tested such a method for northeastern North America that we based on physical features associated with ecological diversity and site resilience to climate change. We comprehensively mapped 30 distinct geophysical settings based on geology and elevation. Within each geophysical setting, we identified sites that were both connected by natural cover and that had relatively more microclimates indicated by diverse topography and elevation gradients. We did this by scoring every 405 ha hexagon in the region for these two characteristics and selecting those that scored >SD 0.5 above the mean combined score for each setting. We hypothesized that these high‐scoring sites had the greatest resilience to climate change, and we compared them with sites selected by The Nature Conservancy for their high‐quality rare species populations and natural community occurrences. High‐scoring sites captured significantly more of the biodiversity sites than expected by chance (p < 0.0001): 75% of the 414 target species, 49% of the 4592 target species locations, and 53% of the 2170 target community locations. Calcareous bedrock, coarse sand, and fine silt settings scored markedly lower for estimated resilience and had low levels of permanent land protection (average 7%). Because our method identifies—for every geophysical setting—sites that are the most likely to retain species and functions longer under a changing climate, it reveals natural strongholds for future conservation that would also capture substantial existing biodiversity and correct the bias in current secured lands.     

Ecosystems and human health: The local benefits of forest cover in Indonesia

This paper documents the effect of primary forest cover loss on increased incidence of malaria. The evidence is consistent with an ecological response. I show that land use change, anti-malarial programs or migration cannot explain the effect of primary forest cover loss on increased malarial incidence. Falsification tests reveal that the effect is specific to malaria, with forest cover having no discernible effect on other diseases with a disease ecology different from that of malaria. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that the morbidity-related malaria-reducing local benefits of primary forests are at least $1-$2 per hectare.     

Temperature effects on mortality and household adaptation: Evidence from China

This paper examines the effects of extreme temperatures on mortality rates, using random year-to-year variation in temperature based on county-level panel data from China. The analysis finds a robust, U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality rates, indicating that extremely cold or hot temperatures lead to excess deaths. The heat-related (cold-related) effect is 3.5 times (3.2 times) as large as previous findings that used U.S. data, and it is especially large for the elderly population, mainly due to excess deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases. Applying these results to climate change predictions from Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model shows that by 2061–2080 the annual mortality rate is likely to increase by 14.2% if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century, the estimated health cost of which is around 0.98 trillion Chinese Yuan per year. The paper also explores households’ adaptation behaviors to extreme temperatures. It finds that although urban households adaptively increase energy consumption when they are exposed to cold temperatures and purchase more air conditioners on hot and cold days, rural households are unresponsive to temperature fluctuations. This finding implies that rural people may be more resource constrained and suffer more when extreme temperatures occur.     

The price of innovation: An analysis of the marginal cost of green buildings

Energy efficiency plays an important role in reducing the carbon externality from buildings, but economic analyses of more efficient, green building have thus far ignored input costs. This paper finds that the average marginal cost of green-labeled construction projects is smaller than the value premiums documented in the literature. However, design fees, representing just a fraction of development costs but paid largely up-front, are significantly higher for green construction projects. These projects also take longer to complete. The results provide some insight into the market barriers and market failures that may explain the relatively slow adoption of otherwise economically rational green construction practices.     

Does the EU ETS cause carbon leakage in European manufacturing?

Carbon leakage is of interest in both academic and policy debates about the effectiveness of unilateral climate policy, especially in Europe, where the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) affects many traded sectors. We review how the literature identifies leakage and the pollution haven effect. We then evaluate whether EU ETS emission costs caused carbon leakage in European manufacturing, using trade flows in embodied carbon and value from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). We find no evidence that the EU ETS caused carbon leakage.     

Incorporating Climate Science in Applications of the U.S. Endangered Species Act for Aquatic Species

Aquatic species are threatened by climate change but have received comparatively less attention than terrestrial species. We gleaned key strategies for scientists and managers seeking to address climate change in aquatic conservation planning from the literature and existing knowledge. We address 3 categories of conservation effort that rely on scientific analysis and have particular application under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA): assessment of overall risk to a species; long‐term recovery planning; and evaluation of effects of specific actions or perturbations. Fewer data are available for aquatic species to support these analyses, and climate effects on aquatic systems are poorly characterized. Thus, we recommend scientists conducting analyses supporting ESA decisions develop a conceptual model that links climate, habitat, ecosystem, and species response to changing conditions and use this model to organize analyses and future research. We recommend that current climate conditions are not appropriate for projections used in ESA analyses and that long‐term projections of climate‐change effects provide temporal context as a species‐wide assessment provides spatial context. In these projections, climate change should not be discounted solely because the magnitude of projected change at a particular time is uncertain when directionality of climate change is clear. Identifying likely future habitat at the species scale will indicate key refuges and potential range shifts. However, the risks and benefits associated with errors in modeling future habitat are not equivalent. The ESA offers mechanisms for increasing the overall resilience and resistance of species to climate changes, including establishing recovery goals requiring increased genetic and phenotypic diversity, specifying critical habitat in areas not currently occupied but likely to become important, and using adaptive management. Incorporación de las Ciencias Climáticas en las Aplicaciones del Acta Estadunidense de Especies en Peligro para Especies Acuáticas     

Providing the Spark: Impact of financial incentives on battery electric vehicle adoption

To overcome adoption barriers and promote battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as an energy efficient consumer transportation option, a number of states offer subsidies to consumers for BEVs. We use a national data set of vehicle registrations and state-level financial incentives to assess the impact of vehicle purchase subsidies on adoption using both difference-in-differences and synthetic controls methods. We find that incentives offered as direct purchase rebates generate increased levels of new BEV registrations at a rate of approximately 8 percent per thousand dollars of incentive offered. Between 2011 and 2015, vehicle rebate incentives are associated with an increase in overall BEV registrations of approximately 11 percent. Our findings indicate incentives offered as state income tax credits do not have a statistically significant effect on BEV adoptions, though we caution this may be a result of limited temporal variation in BEV incentives across our sample. Responses to rebate incentives do not differ significantly by the make of the vehicle purchased (i.e., Tesla and non-Tesla vehicles). We combine our results with recent assessments of marginal environmental costs of electric vehicle charging and measure net welfare effects of BEV subsidy programs. Our analysis indicates these programs are not welfare-improving if only considering benefits associated with avoided emissions. Additional benefits associated with long-term market growth, production cost savings, network externalities, or accelerated innovation could substantially impact the net welfare outcomes.     

Non-cooperative and cooperative climate policies with anticipated breakthrough technology

Global warming can be curbed by pricing carbon emissions and thus substituting fossil fuel with renewable energy consumption. Breakthrough technologies (e.g., fusion energy) can reduce the cost of such policies. However, the chance of such a technology coming to market depends on investment. We model breakthroughs as an irreversible tipping point in a multi-country world, with different degrees of international cooperation. We show that international spill-over effects of R&D in carbon-free technologies lead to double free-riding, strategic over-pollution and underinvestment in green R&D, thus making climate change mitigation more difficult. We also show how the demand structure determines whether carbon pricing and R&D policies are substitutes or complements.     

Firms' and states’ responses to laxer environmental standards

On June 1, 2017, President Trump announced the United States' withdrawal from the Paris agreement on climate change. Despite this decision, American firms continued investing in low-carbon technologies and some states committed to tougher environmental standards. To understand this apparent paradox, this paper studies how a weakening of environmental standards affects the behavior of profit-maximizing firms. It finds that a relaxation of emission standards (i) may increase firms’ incentives to adopt clean technologies, but not to pollute less; (ii) may negatively affect industry profitability if it is perceived as temporary; and, when this is the case, (iii) the unilateral adoption of stricter standards by large states may increase the expected profitability of every firm.     

Incorporating geodiversity into conservation decisions

In a rapidly changing climate, conservation practitioners could better use geodiversity in a broad range of conservation decisions. We explored selected avenues through which this integration might improve decision making and organized them within the adaptive management cycle of assessment, planning, implementation, and monitoring. Geodiversity is seldom referenced in predominant environmental law and policy. With most natural resource agencies mandated to conserve certain categories of species, agency personnel are challenged to find ways to practically implement new directives aimed at coping with climate change while retaining their species‐centered mandate. Ecoregions and ecological classifications provide clear mechanisms to consider geodiversity in plans or decisions, the inclusion of which will help foster the resilience of conservation to climate change. Methods for biodiversity assessment, such as gap analysis, climate change vulnerability analysis, and ecological process modeling, can readily accommodate inclusion of a geophysical component. We adapted others’ approaches for characterizing landscapes along a continuum of climate change vulnerability for the biota they support from resistant, to resilient, to susceptible, and to sensitive and then summarized options for integrating geodiversity into planning in each landscape type. In landscapes that are relatively resistant to climate change, options exist to fully represent geodiversity while ensuring that dynamic ecological processes can change over time. In more susceptible landscapes, strategies aiming to maintain or restore ecosystem resilience and connectivity are paramount. Implementing actions on the ground requires understanding of geophysical constraints on species and an increasingly nimble approach to establishing management and restoration goals. Because decisions that are implemented today will be revisited and amended into the future, increasingly sophisticated forms of monitoring and adaptation will be required to ensure that conservation efforts fully consider the value of geodiversity for supporting biodiversity in the face of a changing climate.     

Energy performance certification and time on the market

This paper analyzes whether energy performance certificates (EPCs) serve as means to reduce the information asymmetry among market participants during the sale of homes. Using a sample of 876,000 single-family homes in the Netherlands, we examine the impact of EPC adoption on the speed of sale. Our results indicate that energy-rated homes sell faster than non-energy-rated homes, an effect that varies by 7–12 percent depending on model specifications and increases when positive (green) ratings are granted. The information conveyed by these certificates reduces the information asymmetry between buyers and sellers, which helps to reduce the uncertainty of quality.     

Microclimate effects of wind farms on local crop yields

This paper considers a novel spillover effect of wind farms - microclimate impacts on neighboring crop yields. Using US county-level crop and wind capacity data, I examine the effects of wind energy development on crop yields, controlling for time-invariant county characteristics and state-level annual shocks. I find robust evidence that counties with increased wind power development have also experienced increased corn and other crop yields, such that an additional 100 MW of wind capacity increases county yields by roughly 1%. At recent prices, this implies a more than $5 dollar per megawatt-hour local benefit, corresponding to several hundred million dollars in annual benefits.     

Population and community resilience in multitrophic communities

Diversity-stability relationships have long been a topic of controversy in ecology, but one whose importance has been re-highlighted by increasing large-scale threats to global biodiversity. The ability of a community to recover from a perturbation (or resilience) is a common measure of stability that has received a large amount of theoretical attention. Yet, general expectations regarding diversity-resilience relations remain elusive. Moreover, the effects of productivity and its interaction with diversity on resilience are equally unclear. We examined the effects of species diversity, species composition, and productivity on population-and community-level resilience in experimental aquatic food webs composed of bacteria, algae, heterotrophic protozoa, and rotifers. Productivity manipulations were crossed with manipulations of the number of species and species compositions within trophic groups. Resilience was measured by perturbing communities with a nonselective, density-independent, mortality event and comparing responses over time between perturbed communities and controls. We found evidence that species diversity can enhance resilience at the community level (i.e., total community biomass), though this effect was more strongly expressed in low-productivity treatments. Diversity effects on resilience were driven by a sampling/selection effect, with resilient communities showing rapid response and dominance by a minority of species (primarily unicellular algae). In contrast, diversity had no effect on mean population-level resilience. Instead, the ability of a community's populations to recover from perturbations was dependent on species composition. We found no evidence of an effect of productivity, either positive or negative, on community- or population-level resilience. Our results indicate that the role of diversity as an insurer of stability may depend on the level of biological organization at which stability is measured, with effects emerging only when focusing on aggregate community properties.