External drift kriging of NOx concentrations with dispersion model output in a reduced air quality monitoring network

In the mid nineteen eighties the Dutch NO_x air quality monitoring network was reduced from 73 to 32 rural and city background stations, leading to higher spatial uncertainties. In this study, several other sources of information are being used to help reduce uncertainties in parameter estimation and spatial mapping. For parameter estimation, we used Bayesian inference. For mapping, we used kriging with external drift (KED) including secondary information from a dispersion model. The methods were applied to atmospheric NO_x concentrations on rural and urban scales. We compared Bayesian estimation with restricted maximum likelihood estimation and KED with universal kriging. As a reference we also included ordinary least squares (OLS). Comparison of several parameter estimation and spatial interpolation methods was done by cross-validation. Bayesian analysis resulted in an error reduction of 10 to 20% as compared to restricted maximum likelihood, whereas KED resulted in an error reduction of 50% as compared to universal kriging. Where observations were sparse, the predictions were substantially improved by inclusion of the dispersion model output and by using available prior information. No major improvement was observed as compared to OLS, the cause presumably being that much good information is contained in the dispersion model output, so that no additional spatial residual random field is required to explain the data. In all, we conclude that reduction in the monitoring network could be compensated by modern geostatistical methods, and that a traditional simple statistical model is of an almost equal quality.

Bewertung der Luftqualität in Rheinland-Pflaz mittels verschiedener Luftqualitätsindizes

Goal and Scope

The constant increase of traffic and the rising energy and material consumption both in industry and trade as well as in private households mean a constant challenge to environmental protection and to the air pollution control. With the commencement of the Federal ambient pollution control act in April 1974, the legal basis for the monitoring of air pollution was created. In future, the limit values laid down in the Council Directive 1999/30/EG, 2000/69/EG and 96/62/EG, will be valid. In town and regional planning there is a great demand for a simple index to evaluate the air quality. From the available data of PM₁₀, NO₂, O₃, CO, SO₂, trends of the air quality will be derived.

Methods

The indices LQI and TLQ suggested by Mayer et al. (2002) were calculated for selected stations of the air pollution monitoring network (ZIMEN) in Rhineland-Palatine. All analysis are based on hourly recorded value, Mean values and frequency distributions are used for the interpretation. Furthermore, the characteristics and trends of the indices under different weather conditions were examined and discussed.

Results

The examination figures out that the air pollutions indices at all stations show similar patterns in the period between January 2001 and December 2002. Neither the LQI, nor the TLQ shows an annual variation. Existing variations are mainly controlled by the general weather situation and the air temperature. High values of the indices appear at extremely high or low mean daily air temperature. The absolute value of the air pollution index is determined by local pollution factors.

Outlook and Recommendations

Both indices are well suitable to evaluate the air quality and to assess the effects of state-aided measures for air pollutant control. Therefore, the indices TLQ and LQI should be published as an additional information in the world wide web.     

A GIS-based approach to spatio-temporal analysis of environmental pollution in urban areas: A case study of Prague's environment extended by LIDAR data

Environmental pollution of urban areas is one of key factors that state authorities and local agencies have to consider in the decision-making process. To find a compromise among many criteria, spatial analysis extended by geostatistical methods and dynamic models has to be carried out. In this case, spatial analysis includes processing of a wide range of air, water and soil pollution data and possibly noise assessment and waste management data. Other spatial inputs consist of data from remote sensing and GPS field measurements. Integration and spatial data management are carried out within the framework of a geographic information system (GIS). From a modeling point of view, GIS is used mainly for the preprocessing and postprocessing of data to be displayed in digital map layers and visualized in 3D scenes. Moreover, for preprocessing and postprocessing, deterministic and geostatistical methods (IDW, ordinary kriging) are used for spatial interpolation; geoprocessing and raster algebra are used in multi-criteria evaluation and risk assessment methods. GIS is also used as a platform for spatio-temporal analyses or for building relationships between the GIS database and stand-alone modeling tools. A case study is presented illustrating the application of spatial analysis to the urban areas of Prague. This involved incorporating environmental data from monitoring networks and field measurements into digital map layers. Extra data inputs were used to represent the 3D concentration fields of air pollutants (ozone, NO₂) measured by differential absorption LIDAR. ArcGIS was used to provide spatial data management and analysis, extended by modeling tools developed internally in the ArcObjects environment and external modules developed with MapObjects. Ordinary kriging methods were employed to predict ozone concentrations in selected 3D locations together with estimates of variability. Higher ozone concentrations were found above crossroads with their heavy traffic than above the surrounding areas. Ozone concentrations also varied with height above the digital elevation model. Processed data, spatial analysis and models are integrated within the framework of the GIS project, providing an approach that state and local authorities can use to address environmental protection issues.     

基于MODIS数据的河南省冬小麦产量遥感估算模型

小麦是世界上最重要的粮食作物,小麦生产对中国的粮食保障起着十分重要的作用,及时、准确、大范围对小麦产量进行监测预报,对于农学经济发展和粮食政策制定具有极为重要的现实意义。对作物产量进行遥感监测的原理是建立在其遥感特征基础之上的,通过建立作物长势指标与遥感信息的定量关系,可实现对作物产量的监测预报。文章基于2009年MODIS遥感数据和气象数据,利用Arcgis和ENVI提取纯小麦像元,并提取纯小麦像元对应的NDVI、NPP和LAI,获取分县NDVI、NPP和LAI均值,利用统计软件对产量数据和分县遥感参数均值进行数据整理和分析,建立了河南省冬小麦产量估算模型。以往研究多采用遥感图像上某像元和地面调查点进行研究,具有很大的不确定性,文章以县为单位,对冬小麦平均单产和县域内冬小麦种植像元遥感参数的均值进行相关研究,提高了模型模拟精度。同时文章选用多种遥感参数和多项气象因子建立估产模型,避免了针对一个参数进行估产的局限性。在最佳时相的选择上,根据冯美辰（2010）以往的研究结果,从4月以后,5月8日和4月20Et植被指数和产量相关性最大,4月份之前冬小麦处于返青到拔节期,对产量来说还有很多不确定闪素,因此文章选用5月8El和4月20日进行冬小麦估产研究。结果表明,5月8日的估产模型优于4月20日,加入气象冈子的遥感气象估产模型优于只采用遥感参数进行估产的遥感模型。利用2010年产量数据对模型精度进行检验,遥感气象模型预测精度在70．2％N99．7％之间,平均精度为90．7％;遥感模型预测精度在68．1％到95．5％之间,平均精度为83．9％。表明遥感气象模型模拟精度更高,其精度可以满足大面积估产要求,可以对产量预报提供科学参考。     

The effect of outdoor air pollutants and greenness on allergic rhinitis incidence rates: a cross-sectional study in Seoul,Korea

Air pollution poses a serious threat to human health in Asia. This study analyzes the association of air pollutants and greenness with incidence rates of allergic rhinitis in Seoul at the administrative district level to gain insight into district-level urban policies to improve public health. A spatial regression model is constructed to investigate the correlation between allergic rhinitis incidence rates and five air pollutants measured at 128 air pollution monitoring stations around Seoul: sulfur dioxide (SO₂), particulate matter less than 10 μm (PM₁₀), ozone (O₃), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and carbon monoxide (CO). The allergic rhinitis incidence data are derived from the National Health Insurance Service’s database that includes the number of allergic rhinitis-related clinic visits by the patients over 20 years of age and living in Seoul. A kriging geostatistical interpolation was used to estimate average air pollution level of 423 administrative districts. To assess pollen concentrations that can affect allergic rhinitis, the average normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is measured based on the urban greenness. The model, controlling for built environment and socio-economic attributes, identifies the possibility of a weak association between allergic rhinitis incidence rates and carbon monoxide levels. The NDVI value is negatively correlated with allergic rhinitis incidence rates, implying a complicated aspect in relation to the effect of urban greenness.     

Accounting for rate instability and spatial patterns in the boundary analysis of cancer mortality maps

Boundary analysis of cancer maps may highlight areas where causative exposures change through geographic space, the presence of local populations with distinct cancer incidences, or the impact of different cancer control methods. Too often, such analysis ignores the spatial pattern of incidence or mortality rates and overlooks the fact that rates computed from sparsely populated geographic entities can be very unreliable. This paper proposes a new methodology that accounts for the uncertainty and spatial correlation of rate data in the detection of significant edges between adjacent entities or polygons. Poisson kriging is first used to estimate the risk value and the associated standard error within each polygon, accounting for the population size and the risk semivariogram computed from raw rates. The boundary statistic is then defined as half the absolute difference between kriged risks. Its reference distribution, under the null hypothesis of no boundary, is derived through the generation of multiple realizations of the spatial distribution of cancer risk values. This paper presents three types of neutral models generated using methods of increasing complexity: the common random shuffle of estimated risk values, a spatial re-ordering of these risks, or p-field simulation that accounts for the population size within each polygon. The approach is illustrated using age-adjusted pancreatic cancer mortality rates for white females in 295 US counties of the Northeast (1970–1994). Simulation studies demonstrate that Poisson kriging yields more accurate estimates of the cancer risk and how its value changes between polygons (i.e., boundary statistic), relatively to the use of raw rates or local empirical Bayes smoother. When used in conjunction with spatial neutral models generated by p-field simulation, the boundary analysis based on Poisson kriging estimates minimizes the proportion of type I errors (i.e., edges wrongly declared significant) while the frequency of these errors is predicted well by the p-value of the statistical test.

Auswahl repräsentativer Standorte zur Modellierung der Ausbreitung von gentechnisch veränderten Pflanzen in Nord-Deutschland

Goal and Scope

The use of genetically modified plants (GMP) in agriculture is increasing rapidly. While GMP in North and South America are already established an extensive cultivation in Germany is yet to come. Risk assessment on possible effects of released GMP are mainly based on empirical studies with a small spatial extent (laboratories, small-scale field trials). The joint research project ‘Generic detection and extrapolation of genetically modified rape (GenEERA)’ aimed at estimating the dispersal and persistence of genetically modified oilseed rape (Brassica napus) by the use of individual based models. The objective of the article at hand is to give a detailed account of the spatial variability of climate in Northern Germany (German Federal States of Brandenburg, Lower Saxony and Bremen Mecklenburg Western Pomerania, Schleswig-Holstein and Hamburg). Based on this, a method was developed that includes both, the determination of representative oilseed rapefields for modelling the dispersal of GM oilseed rape at field scale, and the subsequent generalisation of the results to landscapes.

Data and Methods

The statistically founded selection of modelling sites was performed by a compilation of available indicators within a GIS environment which are supposed to be important for the dispersal and the persistence of oilseed rape. Meteorological data on precipitation (P), air temperature (T), and sunshine duration (S) collected at up to 1,200 monitoring sites from 1961–1990 were as well as data on wind conditions (W) aggregated multivariate-statistically by Ward cluster analysis. An ecoregionalisation was used for characterising Northern Germany ecologically. Phenological data on the start of the oil seed rape bloom differentiated in the monitoring periods 1961–1990 and 1991–1999, respectively, were regionalised by performing variogram analysis and kriging interpolation. These maps were used to select appropriate Landsat images to identify rape fields by remote sensing algorithms as well as to define the respective flowering periods for individual based modelling.

Results

The separately generated P-T-S-W-Cluster were aggregated to four homogenic climatic regions. In combination with agricultural clusters defining typical landuse patterns (crop rotation, cultivation management) eight model regions were derived which describe the climatic and agronomic variations in Northern Germany. For each of these regions a representative monitoring site was selected serving for individual based modelling. At last, the modelling results were extrapolated back to the model regions applying corresponding GIS queries.

Discussion

The generated climatic regions reflect the transition of marine climate at the North Sea to continental climate in Northeast Germany. The shift in flowering of oil seed rape coincides with other studies on phenological changes of agricultural crops and wild plants.

Conclusions

Due to the huge calculation efforts and the lack of adequate land registers it was not possible to simulate the potential dispersal of GM oil seed rape at farm scale. Thus, generalisations were used to describe the variations of relevant ecological drivers affecting the dispersal of GMP. It could be shown that the aggregation of those factors to homogenic climatic regions was a successful approximation.

Recommendations and Perspectives

Due to the limited empirical data base it is necessary to validate and substantiate the modelling results by a GMP monitoring. The EU Directive 2001/18/EC on the deliberate release of genetically modified organisms into the environment stipulates assessment of direct and indirect effects of GMP on humans and the environment by case-specific monitoring and general surveillance. It should be realised as soon as possible, since the release and the cultivation of GMP in Germany have been started, already. The monitoring should be complemented by the implementation of a web-based geoinformation system (WebGIS) which enables access to relevant geodata and monitoring data and assists in analysing possible GMP impacts.     

全球环境变化对农作物影响的研究进展

从CO2浓度升高、CO2浓度与温度升高以及CO2浓度与水分变化的协同作用、CO2浓度升高与环境盐胁迫的协同作用和作物产量预测模拟及其适应对策4个方面总结了近年来国内外关于农业生产对全球环境变化的响应与适应及其变化趋势的研究进展，指出目前人类关于农业生产对未来全球环境变化响应机理的理解与预测很有限，提出中国未来需要拟加强的研究领域．参38     

A Simple Model to Determine In Situ Mixing Height Growth from Surface Measurements

A generic In Situ Mixing Height Growth (IMG) model, capable of predicting the real-time growth of the mixed layer and its diurnal evolution from routinely observed simple surface meteorological is developed. The algorithm for the determination of temporally growing daytime mixing height includes both convective and mechanical turbulence contributions. It accounts for neutral as well as height varying potential temperature gradients above the mixed layer. For thermally stable and mechanically dominated unstable night time Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) the module uses similarity formulae based on the wind velocity [1]), the Monin—Obukhov length [2], and the Coriolis parameter. In the convective case simple slab model is integrated, based on initial lapse rate and the surface heat flux. The lapse rate is evaluated on the basis of vertical atmospheric stability, surface type and surface temperature. This differentiates the IMG model from other existing mixing height models that need initial measured lapse rate for calculation. IMG model is site specific as it calculates the radiative incoming heat flux depending on the solar declination estimates based on-site latitude and longitude. The IMG model is applied to calculate mixing height for India by using surface data (viz. wind speed, surface temperature, surface type) from 152 surface meteorological stations. Results have been evaluated with radiosonde mixing height data procured from 18 upper air stations. Sensitivity analysis of the model with respect to various parameters is performed. The model is formulated after reviewing presently available radiosonde mixing height data in India and can satisfactorily provide an alternative means of estimating mixing height for air pollution dispersion models.     

Copper distribution in chemical soil fractions and relationships with maize crop yield

Agricultural practices can lead to copper accumulation in soils and at high concentration it can become toxic for plants. One common toxic effect of copper on plants is a decrease of crop yield. Here, we studied 1) the crop yield of maize grown on plots of a soil intentionally enriched with copper sulphate and 2) the possible relationship between the copper concentration in chemical soil fractions and the maize crop yield. Anthropogenic copper is mainly bound to manganese oxides, to iron oxides and to the organic matter. Maize (Zea maize L.) was grown on outdoor experimental plots. The crop yield was evaluated for three development stages: the 6–10 leaf stage, the female flowering stage and the maturity stage, 2, 4 and 6 years after the soil copper enrichment. Strong crop yield reductions, proving a toxic effect of copper on maize growth were noted 2 years after the copper input at the maturity stage and 4 years after the copper input at the 6–10 leaf stage. Variations in maize crop yield are described with linear multiple regression equations including the variable copper content in soil, and other variables when needed such as soil pH, soil organic carbon level and the climatic variables, the precipitation rate and the ambient temperature. The crop yield study at the 6–10 leaf stage and at the female flowering stage does not provide significant regression equations, while the crop yield study at the maturity stage does. Request variables for the models are the total copper content or the copper bound to the organic matter and the meteorological data. Electronic Publication     

A Multimedia Chemical Fate Model with Time-Dependent Air-Water Transfer Rates

A multimedia model for the temporal evolution of the concentration of chemical species in a water basin and its bottom sediment layer has been tested with time-dependent air-water transfer rates varying with the meteorological conditions over the basin. The multimedia model uses the chemical fugacity approach in a system of two ordinary differential equations for the chemical species partition in the two mentioned media, with transfer through the sediment-water and the air-water interfaces. The air-water transfer rates are estimated by a micrometeorological preprocessor. A scenario in which known concentrations in air of a soluble pollutant (benzene) induce water and sediment pollution is tested on both synthetic (MonteCarlo-simulated) and real series of meteorological data. It is found that the use of time-dependent transfer coefficients affects not only the relaxation time, but also the long term concentration of the pollutant in water and sediment, that differs between 10 and 40% in the examined cases when compared with the same multimedia model using average constant transfer rates as usual. This is shown to be due to the statistical correlations between meteorological parameters and air pollutant concentrations, which stresses the advantages of a time-dependent estimation of the transfer coefficients. Correction terms are proposed to take into account the correlation effects when a constant parameters multimedia model is used.     

Examination of model predictions at different horizontal grid resolutions

While fluctuations in meteorological and air quality variables occur on a continuum of spatial scales, the horizontal grid spacing of coupled meteorological and photochemical models sets a lower limit on the spatial scales that they can resolve. However, both computational costs and data requirements increase significantly with increasing grid resolution. Therefore, it is important to examine, for any given application, whether the expected benefit of increased grid resolution justifies the extra costs. In this study, we examine temperature and ozone observations and model predictions for three high ozone episodes that occurred over the northeastern United States during the summer of 1995. In the first set of simulations, the meteorological model RAMS4a was run with three two-way nested grids of 108/36/12 km grid spacing covering the United States and the photochemical model UAM-V was run with two grids of 36/12 km grid spacing covering the eastern United States. In the second set of simulations, RAMS4a was run with four two-way nested grids of 108/36/12/4 km grid spacing and UAM-V was run with three grids of 36/12/4 km grid spacing with the finest resolution covering the northeastern United States. Our analysis focuses on the comparison of model predictions for the finest grid domain of the simulations, namely, the region overlapping the 12 km and 4 km domains. A comparison of 12 km versus 4 km fields shows that the increased grid resolution leads to finer texture in the model predictions; however, comparisons of model predictions with observations do not reveal the expected improvement in the predictions. While high-resolution modeling has scientific merit and potential uses, the currently available monitoring networks, in conjunction with the scarceness of highly resolved spatial input data and the limitations of model formulation, do not allow confirmation of the expected superiority of the high-resolution model predictions.The U.S. Governments right to retain a non-exclusive royalty-free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

The air speed of migrating birds and its relationship to the wind

Summary This paper deals with the flight speeds of migrating birds observed by radar over a Swiss Alpine pass. The distributions of air speeds for different classes of birds and the influence of the wind on air speeds were investigated. Our findings differ greatly from observations of bird migration over the North Atlantic Ocean and the North American continent. Our data reveal: (1) that the air speeds of the bulk of migrating birds were in the range of 8–18 m/s and that the amount of slow flyers (air speed below 5 m/s) was less than 5%; (2) that there was an obvious influence of the wind on air speeds and, moreover, the data showed a distinctly variable compensatory behavior among different bird classes; (3) that the wind component in the direction of the bird's heading was a better predictor for air speed than the wind direction. Although we do not speculate about possibilities and mechanisms of wind detection, a simple argument shows how birds could estimate wind directions if they do use the moving surface as a reference system.     

Photosynthetic response to temperature and desiccation of the intertidal alga Mastocarpus papillatus

When exposed to air during low tide, intertidal macroalgae experience a terrestrial environment and often encounter extreme levels of heating and desiccation. Two aspects of photosynthesis may be influenced by this increase in temperature and decrease in water content during exposure to air: (1) the rate of aerial photosynthesis itself, and (2) the rate at which aquatic photosynthesis recovers upon immersion in water at high tide. This laboratory study examines the effect of air temperature and desiccation on photosynthesis of the intertidal macroalga Mastocarpus papillatus Kützing. Plants were collected at Hopkins Marine Station, California, USA (36°37N; 121°54W) between July and December 1990. When apical tips were exposed to 15 to 25°C air for 2 h, photosynthesis was rapidly recovered upon reimmersion in seawater. Recovery was delayed, but complete, when tissue was exposed to 30°C air, but did not occur after exposure to 35°C air. Desiccation did not influence either the rate or the ultimate level of recovery upon reimmersion. Photosynthesis in air generally decreased with increasing desication, with no net photosynthesis occurring below 25% relative water content. Net photosynthesis of hydrated thalli increased with air temperature from 15 to 30°C, then decreased at 35°C. Dark respiration of hydrated thalli increased over the entire temperature range. This study indicates that thallus heating and desiccation during periods of exposure to air can potentially influence the total carbon budget of M. papillatus.     

Estimation of stream temperature in firtina creek (Rize-Turkiye) using artificial neural network model

Water temperature is one of the most important environmental variables in aquatic ecosystem. Temperature changes may have positive or negative effects on organisms. High water temperatures have caused mortalities in salmonid fishes. Therefore, monitoring and prediction of potential adverse changes in water temperature is very important. Here, we have developed and tested an artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict stream temperature of Firtina Creekin Black Sea region; using local water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH and other available meteorological data (air temperature, rainfall). Thus, enabling define suitable habitat for native Sea Trout (Salmo trutta labrax, Pallas 1811) under past drought or other adverse envIronmental conditions.     

Mercury budget estimates for the State of New York

The development of two comprehensive modelling systems and a test application to estimate the mercury budget for the State of New York is discussed in the present study. The modelling tools developed are based on two well known meteorological modelling systems namely, RAMS and SKIRON/Eta. Both models have been modified and the developed modules describing the physico-chemical processes of mercury have been incorporated in each modelling system. Model calculations and measurements have been compared during the 14 to 26 August 1997 simulation period. Two different simulations were performed, scenario1 where all available sources of mercury were used and scenario2 where the New York State mercury sources were excluded. An attempt was made to identify and quantify critical gaps in the current understanding of regional scale transport deposition and fate of mercury in New York State, improving modelling capabilities and understanding of mercury as an air pollutant, and provide a tool for policy makers in mitigating the impacts of mercury pollution.     

Veränderungen des NO/NO2-Verhältnisses in Nordrhein-Westfalen (1984–2004) und mögliche Ursachen

Objective and Background

The nitrogen oxides NO and NO₂ and, in particular, their ratio (NO/NO₂), play important roles in the radical-system of the atmospheric boundary layer. There were various indications upon a dropping NO/NO₂-ratio in citiex over the last years, however, no proof has been given yet Especially in densely populated areas such as the federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), such a change can have significant influences upon various atmospheric reactions. The objective of this investigation was to prove the existence of a systematic change of the NO/NO₂-ratio, to describe the development of NO_x over the past 2 decades at different locations and to determine the causes for this development.

Methods

To detect changes of the NO/NO₂-ratio we processed the data of 11 continuously operating air quality stations of the State Environment Agency (LUA NRW) with time series reaching back up to 20 years. We investigated rural stations, stations in the urban background and heavily traffic influenced locations. It was possible to calculate and assess the NO/NO₂-ratio under consideration of the fast reaction of ozone with NO. There were clear indications towards existing trends and they could be determined as statistically significant using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall Test. The analysis of possible causes for the change of the NO/NO₂-ratio focused upon the change of the global radiation, the change of the patterns of the atmosphetic circulation, and the frequency of cyclones and anticyclones meteorological conditions in Central Europe, the introduction of automotive catalytic converters, and the development of the atmospheric oxidation-capacity.

Results and conclusions

The results are indicating a decline of the ratio at traffic-influenced stations with a statistical significance over 95%. The negative trend can also be detected at most urban background stations. It was problematic to perform the trend-analysis of the rural background station in the Egge-Mountains because of the fragmentary character of the dataset. Regional differences in the development of the NO/NO₂-ratio indicate towards various causes. Crucial for the situation at the rural areas are the changed trajectories of cyclones and anticyclones as well as the decline of the atmospheric oxidation-capacity, while the traffic plays another important role at urban stations. The negative trend at the traffic-stations was intensified by the introduction of catalytic converters, which lead to a reduction in emissions of NO_x

Recommendations and prospects

The significance of the NO/NO₂-ratio for the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere shows the necessity to further monitor this development. Previous investigations detected a decline in total NO_x without examining the relative development of the two nitrogen oxides towards each other. Gaining insight into the local differences of this ratio helps to allocate sources and to develop understanding of the atmospheric processes.     

A statistical model to forecast the profile of the index structure constant $${C_N^2}$$

A statistical study was performed over 145 profiles of meteorological balloons, equipped with microthermal sensors, from the ground to the midstratosphere. This study put into evidence the lognormal distribution of the fluctuations of the structure constant of temperature, the fluctuations of the buoyancy force and the vertical shear of the horizontal wind speed. We show that these quantities, computed over a large scale (100 m), are correlated up to the midstratosphere. A model is adjusted to estimate the optical turbulence strength from the macroscopic meteorological parameters. The model performances, to estimate and forecast the strength and the altitude of the optical turbulent layers, are quantified and compared with other already defined models. This model was shown to have the best performances and put into evidence a new relation to describe the turbulence on a large scale.     

广州市空气污染物和气象要素的主成分与典型相关分析

用主成分和典型相关分析方法分析广州市近4a(2001—2004年)的空气污染物与气象要素之间的关系,按夏半年、冬半年和全年3个时间尺度分别进行。结果表明:污染物数据所得到的主成分分别代表机动车污染源(汽油燃烧和扬尘)和工业污染源(工业燃煤和燃油),气象数据的主成分分析表明空气的温度、湿度及对流速度对空气污染作用明显,而污染物和气象要素的主成分分析表明气温高低和空气干湿程度对大气污染的影响较大。污染物与气象要素两组数据之间的典型相关分析表明污染物与气象要素之间存在显著的相关关系,其中温度和风速对气态污染物有显著影响。     

Korrelation meteorologischer und pflanzenphänologischer Indikatoren des Klimawandels

Goal and Scope

While the rise of the air temperature as part of the global climatic change seems to be widely assured, questions about the effects of this phenomenon in ecological systems get more and more interesting. In this sense this article shows by the example of monitoring sites in Baden-Württemberg the correlation of air temperature measurements with data on the phenology of selected plants.

Methods

To this end the data on air remperature and plant phenology which are gathered from spatial dislocated measurement sites were correlated by prior application of Kriging interpolation. In addition, geostatistics are ssed to analyze and cartographically depict the spatial structure of the phenology in spring and in summer.

Results and Conclusion

The statistical analysis reveals a significant relationship between the rising air temperature and the early beginning phenological phases like blooming or fruit maturation. From 1991 to 1999 spring time as indicated by phenological phases begins up to 14 days earlier than from 1961 to 1990. As proved by geostatistics, this holds true for the whole territory of Baden-Württemberg.

Recommendation and Perspective

The effects of the rise of air temperature should be examined not only by monitoring of biological individuals as for example plants, but on ecosystem level, too. The German ecosystem research and the environmental monitoring should be supplemented by the study of the effects of the climatic change in ecosystems. Because air temperature and humidity have a great influence on the temporal and spatial distribution of pathogen carriers (vectors) and pathogens mapping of the determinants of vector and pathogen distribution in space and time should be done in order to identify hot spots for risk assessment and further detailed epidemiological studies.