高锰酸盐复合药剂强化预氯化控制THMs生成量

通过小试和中试实验研究了高锰酸盐复合药剂(PPC)与氯联合预氧化工艺对三卤甲烷(THMs)的控制效果.小试的研究结果表明,适当投加PPC(1.0 mg·l-1)可使预氯化的THMs生成量降低14.1%,预加氯量是联合预氧化工艺THMs生成量的决定因素,pH值降低,THMs生成量减少,并且在pH6.0的条件下,PPC显著降低了预氯化工艺的THMs生成量;中试的研究结果表明,与单独预氯化(3.0mg·l-1)相比,联合预氧化工艺(PPC 1.0 mg·l-1 Cl22.0 mg·l-1)过滤后水中的THMs减少了47.9%;模拟管网系统试验的研究结果表明,联合预氧化工艺的THMs生成量与单独预氯化相比降低了17.2%.因此,PPC和氯联合预氧化工艺可降低饮用水的THMs生成量,提高饮用水的化学物安全性.     

辽宁省西部和沈阳地区河水及地下水中溴的分布与污染特征

利用HPLC-ICP-MS方法分析辽宁省西部河水及其沿岸地下水中溴化物、溴酸盐的含量,调查了溴化物、溴酸盐的污染现状.结果表明,大凌河和小凌河河水中总溴浓度范围20.5-364μg·l~(-1),和总氯浓度呈良好相关关系,由回归方程得到的Br/Cl比值分别为2.91和0.83μg·mg~(-1).大凌河该比值在雨水的范围之内,而小凌河该比值则町能受到岩盐溶解的部分影响.大凌河和小凌河河水中溴与氯浓度的相关性与自然界观察到的天然比值范围足相符合的,表明河水未受到溴的污染.细河河水和地下水总溴浓度范围26.6-4070μg·l~(-1),平均浓度1584μg·l~(-1),Br/Cl比值范围2.73-25.2 μg·mg~(-1).细河河水和地下水中的溴浓度明显高于浑河、蒲河和沈抚灌渠,平均Br/Cl比值高达12μg·mg~(-1),远非降水来源所能解释.细河浅层地下水中溴酸盐被检出的浓度存在两处超标情况,分别为31和15μg·l~(-1).浅层地下水中高溴离子浓度和具有强烈毒理效应的溴酸盐的存在对该地区生态系统和人类健康具有潜在负面影响.     

不同种类氨基酸在氯化后形成三卤甲烷和卤乙酸潜能特性

水体中的氨基酸作为饮用水消毒副产物(DBPs)的重要前驱体之一,已成为环境毒理学研究的焦点问题.本文对典型的20种氨基酸进行模拟氯化消毒实验,确定其耗氯量,以甲基叔丁基醚(MTBE)萃取消毒副产物三卤甲烷(THMs)、卤乙酸(HAAs)和三氯硝基甲烷(TCNM),并用气相色谱仪测试分析THMs、HAAs和TCNM的生成势,同时通过数理统计方法分析不同氨基酸的化学结构与生成消毒副产物浓度的关系.结果表明:(1)各氨基酸的耗氯能力与其结构密切相关,侧链上具有芳香性环状结构的氨基酸的耗氯量较大,其中芳香环上有羟基和氮取代基的酪氨酸和色氨酸分别表现出较高的耗氯量(13.58、14.10 mg·mg~(-1)),而没有官能团的苯丙氨酸耗氯量低(4.24 mg·mg~(-1)).(2)20种氨基酸氯化过程中DBPs生成能力的差异与氨基酸侧链官能团的结构与性质有一定关系,其中侧链上具有芳香性环状结构、羟基、氨基和硫自由基等官能团结构的氨基酸可形成较高浓度DBPs;氯化色氨酸生成THMs能力最强,其生成三卤甲烷量达338.5μg·L~(-1).天冬氨酸生成HAAs(390.61μg·L~(-1))能力最强,酪氨酸生成TCNM(56.38μg·L~(-1))能力最强.(3)通过回归分析得出20种氨基酸在氯化消毒过程中HAAs生成能力大小与耗氯量大小具有较明显的相关性,耗氯量较大的氨基酸生成的HAAs也较高.     

广州市饮用水中挥发性有机物的研究

饮用水中的挥发性有机化合物（VOCs）来源于水源水受到的环境污染或是在净化消毒工艺处理工程中反应产生的副产物,可对人体健康造成极大的危害。改革开放以来,广州人口和经济得到突飞猛进的发展,也带来了包括饮用水安全在内的诸多严重的社会和环境问题。虽然饮用水中VOCs的研究已经得到越来越多的重视,但是目前对广州市饮用水中挥发性有机物的研究还鲜有报道。本文在广州市中心城区选取15个不同位置的采样点进行了自来水水样采集,并利用吹扫-捕集-气相色谱-质谱（GC-MS）联用系统分析技术测定水中 VOCs 的种类和三卤甲烷的质量浓度。结果表明,广州市中心城区的自来水中VOCs有20种,以三卤甲烷（THMs）和芳香烃类为主,占了所检出的物质总量的78%以上。THMs中四种化合物（氯仿、一溴二氯甲烷、二溴一氯甲烷、溴仿）的检出率达100%,总三卤甲烷的平均质量浓度为46.46μg· L-1,最大值为53.31μg· L-1,最小值39.91μg· L-1。根据2006版国家饮用水标准,四种三卤甲烷质量浓度均低于标准限值,符合标准要求。对市面上一般的瓶装水的研究发现,瓶装水中三卤甲烷的质量浓度非常低,总三卤甲烷平均质量浓度仅为1.47μg·L-1,约是自来水中质量浓度的1/30。为了解温度及煮沸对自来水中 THMs 质量浓度的影响,本研究设计了实验进行探究。结果发现加热至沸腾过程中,THMs质量浓度随温度升高而升高,而沸腾后THMs骤降,煮沸5 min可降低水中约95%的THMs,接近瓶装水中THMs质量浓度。     

天然水中离子对消毒过程中挥发性卤代烃生成的影响

以天然水中的腐殖酸为研究对象,用其活性片段苯二酚和天然水做对比,研究了氯化过程中挥发性卤代烃的生成机理,并分析了天然水体中常见离子对氯化反应的影响．结果表明,氯化过程中三卤甲烷和三卤乙烷是稳定产物,随着反应时间和加氯量的增加产生量增加;烯烃为不稳定的中间产物,实验过程中偶尔有检出;1,1,2,2-四氯乙烷为相对稳定的中间产物。随着反应时间和加氯量的增加先增加而后减少．天然水中的溴离子对挥发性卤代烃的生成有一定的促进作用;铵离子和镁离子对氯化产物有不同程度的抑制作用;碳酸根离子对不同的挥发性卤代烃产物有不同的影响．     

环境水样中卤代甲基磺酸的高效液相色谱-串联质谱联用分析方法研究

利用高效液相色谱三重四极杆串联质谱(HPLC-MS/MS),建立了环境水样中卤代甲基磺酸的分析方法.通过对固相萃取、色谱柱、流动相和质谱条件的优化,确定了最佳萃取和分析条件.选用WAX固相萃取柱对卤代甲基磺酸进行富集,再依次用2 m L的5%氨水甲醇溶液、2%甲酸甲醇溶液和20%二氯甲烷甲醇溶液(均为体积比)进行洗脱.选用Acclaim HILIC-10为色谱分离柱,以乙腈和100 mmol·L~(-1)甲酸铵水溶液为流动相,分离目标化合物,采用串联质谱负离子扫描和多反应监测模式进行检测.方法对5种卤代甲基磺酸(三氟甲基磺酸、一氯甲基磺酸、二氯甲基磺酸、三氯甲基磺酸和一溴甲基磺酸)的线性范围为0.05—50μg·L~(-1),线性相关系数r0.99,各化合物的检出限(S/N=3)在0.005—0.039μg·L~(-1)之间.将建立的分析方法应用于实际样品中卤代甲基磺酸的测定,所得加标回收率在67.5%—95.4%之间,峰面积相对标准偏差(n=5)在8.5%—13.0%之间,可满足饮用水环境样品中痕量卤代甲基磺酸的分析.     

鱼油氯胺消毒过程中溴代和碘代含氮消毒副产物的生成

本研究采用鱼油作为模拟化合物，模拟微污染原水中广泛存在的生物源有机物的脂肪类组成成分，考察氯胺消毒过程中溴代和碘代含氮消毒副产物(nitrogenous disinfection by-products,N-DBPs)的生成情况.结果表明，鱼油经氯胺消毒后，生成的溴代和碘代N-DBPs主要包括一溴乙腈(bromoacetonitrile, BAN)、二溴乙腈(dibromoacetonitrile, DBAN)、一溴硝基甲烷(bromonitromethane,BNM)、一碘乙腈(iodoacetonitrile,IAN).其中，在本研究考察范围内，BAN、DBAN与BNM的生成量会随溴离子和总有机碳(Total Organic Carbon,TOC)浓度的增加而增加；当溴离子浓度为5 mg·L^-1,TOC为20 mg·L^-1时，BAN、DBAN与BNM的最大生成量分别为71.15、192.36、27.52μg·L^-1. IAN的生成量则随碘离子和TOC浓度的增加而增加；当碘离子浓度为0.5 mg·L^-1     

饮用水中九种卤乙酰胺的高效液相色谱-三重四极杆质谱测定方法

本文应用固相萃取前处理方法和高效液相色谱-三重四极杆电喷雾质谱(HPLC-ESI/tq MS),优化并建立了9种氯代和溴代乙酰胺的同时测定方法.结果显示,在流动相甲醇/水(5/95,V/V)、流速0.3 m L·min-1、正离子模式条件下,9种卤乙酰胺的线性范围是5—200μg·L~(-1)或10—500μg·L~(-1)(R20.99),9种卤乙酰胺检出限为0.5—9.2μg·L~(-1).经过比较HLB是最优的固相萃取柱.在0.02、0.2、0.5μg·L~(-1)的3个加标水平下,9种卤乙酰胺的回收率分别为61%—84%、60%—93%和70%—104%,相对标准偏差为1.7%—4.4%、1.1%—4.1%和0.8%—4.1%.     

草浆漂白过程中二噁英类生成机理探讨

本文以氯苯、氯酚、二苯并二噁英（DBD）和二苯并呋喃（DBF）为PCDD/Fs前生体,模拟工业草浆漂白条件,探讨了次氯酸盐和氯气漂白苇浆过程中二噁英类的生成机制,研究表明,在苇浆中加入二噁英类前生体如DBD/F,其氯化产物与在木浆中有所区别,在实验条件下,二噁英类的生成量分别为:15μg PCDDs·mg~（-1）DBD。1.5μg PCDFs·mg~（-1）DBF。     

利用离子色谱法检测臭氧处理的饮用水中痕量BrO^—3

70年代,研究发现饮用水处理过程中使用的Cl_2容易产生致癌物,例如三卤甲烷等.因此,环境保护部门和饮用水处理部门开始进行多种尝试,改变消毒方法,力争将危害身体的消毒副产物降至最低.臭氧消毒最有可能代替氯化消毒,然而臭氧消毒会将Br~-氧化成Bro_3~-,这使源水中Br~-的存在成为一个潜在的问题.即使浓度低至μg·1~(-1)级,世界卫生组织和美国国家环保局(U.S.A.EPA)将BrO_3~-列为潜在致癌物.许多有关的法规制订部门都将潜在致癌物危害人体健康的标准定在10~(-5)g·1~(-1)甚至更低,美国国家环保局认为臭氧处理的饮用水中BrO_3~-的浓度应控制在1μg·1~(-1)以下.因此,分析方法必须能够对此浓度级的BrO_3~-定量,以便在设计臭氧处理工艺时将此污染物的浓度降至最低.     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity

Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km² around Bonga and 3000 km² in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques     

What Every Conservation Biologist Should Know about Economic Theory

Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.     

Globalization of the Cashmere Market and the Decline of Large Mammals in Central Asia

As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland where cashmere‐producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis. In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3‐fold increase in local profits for herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica).That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4‐fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur)in trans‐Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China's Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard(Panthera uncia), khulan(Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic‐level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere. Globalización del Mercado de Cachemira y la Declinación de Mamíferos Mayores en Asia Central     

The lichen-rich coastal heath vegetation on the isle of Anholt, Denmark — conservation and management

The high conservational value of the lichen-rich vegetation and landscape of the marine foreland Ørkenen on the isle of Anholt is treated from a Danish as well as a European perspective. The sensitivity of the lichen-rich vegetation to physical disturbance is emphasized. The impact of invasive species such asPinus mugo as well as the effect of atmospheric deposition of nutrients on the heaths at Anholt is described. Considerations related to the development of a management plan for Ørkenen are presented.     

Behavior and ecology of Old World Luperini beetles of the genusAulacophora (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Summary The attraction of Old World leaf beetles in the genusAulacophora to kairomones and parakairomones which are effective lures for New WorldDiabrotica andAcalymma were investigated. Beetles captured on sticky traps baited with single and multicomponent lures were no different from the control traps for two species ofAulacophora. Yellow colored traps and squash blossoms are attractive toAulacophora beetles which detect sub-microgram quantities of cucurbitacins on silica gel. Leaf feeding behavior and flight activity data are correlated with varietal preference of threeAulacophora species. The common response byDiabrotica andAulacophora to cucurbitacins reinforces the two groups' coevolutionary association with the Cucurbitaceae. The apparent lack of a common response toCucurbita blossom volatiles suggests recent evolutionary pathways are substantially different for these two groups of beetles.     

Use of stochastic patch occupancy models in the California red-legged frog for Bayesian inference regarding past events and future persistence

Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.