Spatially Explicit Power Analyses for Occupancy‐Based Monitoring of Wolverine in the U.S. Rocky Mountains

Conservation scientists and resource managers often have to design monitoring programs for species that are rare or patchily distributed across large landscapes. Such programs are frequently expensive and seldom can be conducted by one entity. It is essential that a prospective power analysis be undertaken to ensure stated monitoring goals are feasible. We developed a spatially based simulation program that accounts for natural history, habitat use, and sampling scheme to investigate the power of monitoring protocols to detect trends in population abundance over time with occupancy‐based methods. We analyzed monitoring schemes with different sampling efforts for wolverine (Gulo gulo) populations in 2 areas of the U.S. Rocky Mountains. The relation between occupancy and abundance was nonlinear and depended on landscape, population size, and movement parameters. With current estimates for population size and detection probability in the northern U.S. Rockies, most sampling schemes were only able to detect large declines in abundance in the simulations (i.e., 50% decline over 10 years). For small populations reestablishing in the Southern Rockies, occupancy‐based methods had enough power to detect population trends only when populations were increasing dramatically (e.g., doubling or tripling in 10 years), regardless of sampling effort. In general, increasing the number of cells sampled or the per‐visit detection probability had a much greater effect on power than the number of visits conducted during a survey. Although our results are specific to wolverines, this approach could easily be adapted to other territorial species. Poder de Análisis Espacialmente Explícito para el Monitoreo Basado en Ocupación del Glotón (Gulo gulo) en las Montañas Rocallosas de Estados Unidos     

Conservation Implications of Drastic Reductions in the Smallest and Most Isolated Populations of Giant Pandas

Abstract: In conservation biology, understanding the causes of endangerment is a key step to devising effective conservation strategies. We used molecular evidence (coalescent simulations of population changes from microsatellite data) and historical information (habitat and human population changes) to investigate how the most‐isolated populations of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) in the Xiaoxiangling Mountains became highly endangered. These populations experienced a strong, recent demographic reduction (60‐fold), starting approximately 250 years BP. Explosion of the human population and use of non‐native crop species at the peak of the Qing Empire resulted in land‐use changes, deforestation, and habitat fragmentation, which are likely to have led to the drastic reduction of the most‐isolated populations of giant pandas. We predict that demographic, genetic, and environmental factors will lead to extinction of giant pandas in the Xiaoxiangling Mountains in the future if the population remains isolated. Therefore, a targeted conservation action—translocation—has been proposed and is being implemented by the Chinese goverment.     

Consensus on Criteria for Potential Areas for Wolf Reintroduction in Mexico

Abstract: Given the conflict with human interests that in many cases results in the extirpation of large carnivores, acceptance of their reintroduction is a considerable challenge. By the 1980s Mexican wolves (Canis lupus) were extinct in the wild. In 1998 a population was reintroduced in the Blue Range Mountains of New Mexico (U.S.A.). Efforts to reintroduce the species in Mexico have been ongoing since the late 1980s. Four teams working independently identified 6 areas in northern Mexico in the historic range of Mexican wolves, where reintroductions could potentially be successful. Each team used different methods and criteria to identify the areas, which makes it difficult to prioritize among these areas. Therefore, members of the different teams worked together to devise criteria for use in identifying priority areas. They identified areas with high, intermediate, and low potential levels of conflict between wolves and humans. Areas with low potential conflict had larger buffers (i.e., distance from human settlement to areas suitable for wolves) around human settlements than high‐ and intermediate‐conflict areas and thus were thought most appropriate for the first reintroduction. High‐conflict areas contained habitat associated with wolf presence, but were closer to human activity. The first reintroduction of Mexican wolves to Mexico occurred in October 2011 in one of the identified low‐conflict areas. The identification of suitable areas for reintroduction represents a crucial step in the process toward the restoration of large carnivores. Choice of the first reintroduction area can determine whether the reintroduction is successful or fails. A failure may preclude future reintroduction efforts in a region or country.     

Proposed Conservation Landscape for Giant Pandas in the Minshan Mountains,China

Abstract: The giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), is one of the world's most endangered species. Habitat loss and fragmentation have reduced its numbers, shrunk its distribution, and separated the population into isolated subpopulations. Such isolated, small populations are in danger of extinction due to random demographic factors and inbreeding. We used least‐cost modeling as a systematic approach to incorporate satellite imagery and data on ecological and behavioral parameters of the giant panda collected during more than 10 years of field research to design a conservation landscape for giant pandas in the Minshan Mountains. We identified 8 core habitats and 4 potential linkages that would link core habitats CH3, CH4, and CH5 with core habitats CH6, CH7, and CH8. Establishing and integrating the identified habitats with existing reserves would create an efficient reserve network for giant panda conservation. The core habitats had an average density of 4.9 pandas/100 km² and contained approximately 76.6% of the giant panda population. About 45% of the core habitat (3245.4 km²) existed outside the current nature reserves network. Total estimated core habitat decreased between 30.4 and 44.5% with the addition of residential areas and road networks factored into the model. A conservation area for giant panda in the Minshan Mountains should aim to ensure habitat retention and connectivity, improve dispersal potential of corridors, and maintain the evolutionary potential of giant pandas in the face of future environmental changes.     

The Capacity of Australia's Protected‐Area System to Represent Threatened Species

Abstract: The acquisition or designation of new protected areas is usually based on criteria for representation of different ecosystems or land‐cover classes, and it is unclear how well‐threatened species are conserved within protected‐area networks. Here, we assessed how Australia's terrestrial protected‐area system (89 million ha, 11.6% of the continent) overlaps with the geographic distributions of threatened species and compared this overlap against a model that randomly placed protected areas across the continent and a spatially efficient model that placed protected areas across the continent to maximize threatened species’ representation within the protected‐area estate. We defined the minimum area needed to conserve each species on the basis of the species’ range size. We found that although the current configuration of protected areas met targets for representation of a given percentage of species’ ranges better than a random selection of areas, 166 (12.6%) threatened species occurred entirely outside protected areas and target levels of protection were met for only 259 (19.6%) species. Critically endangered species were among those with the least protection; 12 (21.1%) species occurred entirely outside protected areas. Reptiles and plants were the most poorly represented taxonomic groups, and amphibians the best represented. Spatial prioritization analyses revealed that an efficient protected‐area system of the same size as the current protected‐area system (11.6% of the area of Australia) could meet representation targets for 1272 (93.3%) threatened species. Moreover, the results of these prioritization analyses showed that by protecting 17.8% of Australia, all threatened species could reach target levels of representation, assuming all current protected areas are retained. Although this amount of area theoretically could be protected, existing land uses and the finite resources available for conservation mean land acquisition may not be possible or even effective for the recovery of threatened species. The optimal use of resources must balance acquisition of new protected areas, where processes that threaten native species are mitigated by the change in ownership or on‐ground management jurisdiction, and management of threatened species inside and outside the existing protected‐area system.     

Permeability of Roads to Movement of Scrubland Lizards and Small Mammals

A primary objective of road ecology is to understand and predict how roads affect connectivity of wildlife populations. Road avoidance behavior can fragment populations, whereas lack of road avoidance can result in high mortality due to wildlife‐vehicle collisions. Many small animal species focus their activities to particular microhabitats within their larger habitat. We sought to assess how different types of roads affect the movement of small vertebrates and to explore whether responses to roads may be predictable on the basis of animal life history or microhabitat preferences preferences. We tracked the movements of fluorescently marked animals at 24 sites distributed among 3 road types: low‐use dirt, low‐use secondary paved, and rural 2‐lane highway. Most data we collected were on the San Diego pocket mouse (Chaetodipus fallax), cactus mouse (Peromyscus eremicus), western fence lizard (Sceloporus occidentalis), orange‐throated whiptail (Aspidoscelis hyperythra), Dulzura kangaroo rat (Dipodomys simulans) (dirt, secondary paved), and deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) (highway only). San Diego pocket mice and cactus mice moved onto dirt roads but not onto a low‐use paved road of similar width or onto the highway, indicating they avoid paved road substrate. Both lizard species moved onto the dirt and secondary paved roads but avoided the rural 2‐lane rural highway, indicating they may avoid noise, vibration, or visual disturbance from a steady flow of traffic. Kangaroo rats did not avoid the dirt or secondary paved roads. Overall, dirt and secondary roads were more permeable to species that prefer to forage or bask in open areas of their habitat, rather than under the cover of rocks or shrubs. However, all study species avoided the rural 2‐lane highway. Our results suggest that microhabitat use preferences and road substrate help predict species responses to low‐use roads, but roads with heavy traffic may deter movement of a much wider range of small animal species.     

Protected‐Area Boundaries as Filters of Plant Invasions

Abstract: Human land uses surrounding protected areas provide propagules for colonization of these areas by non‐native species, and corridors between protected‐area networks and drainage systems of rivers provide pathways for long‐distance dispersal of non‐native species. Nevertheless, the influence of protected‐area boundaries on colonization of protected areas by invasive non‐native species is unknown. We drew on a spatially explicit data set of more than 27,000 non‐native plant presence records for South Africa's Kruger National Park to examine the role of boundaries in preventing colonization of protected areas by non‐native species. The number of records of non‐native invasive plants declined rapidly beyond 1500 m inside the park; thus, we believe that the park boundary limited the spread of non‐native plants. The number of non‐native invasive plants inside the park was a function of the amount of water runoff, density of major roads, and the presence of natural vegetation outside the park. Of the types of human‐induced disturbance, only the density of major roads outside the protected area significantly increased the number of non‐native plant records. Our findings suggest that the probability of incursion of invasive plants into protected areas can be quantified reliably.     

Using abiotic variables to predict importance of sites for species representation

In systematic conservation planning, species distribution data for all sites in a planning area are used to prioritize each site in terms of the site's importance toward meeting the goal of species representation. But comprehensive species data are not available in most planning areas and would be expensive to acquire. As a shortcut, ecologists use surrogates, such as occurrences of birds or another well‐surveyed taxon, or land types defined from remotely sensed data, in the hope that sites that represent the surrogates also represent biodiversity. Unfortunately, surrogates have not performed reliably. We propose a new type of surrogate, predicted importance, that can be developed from species data for a q% subset of sites. With species data from this subset of sites, importance can be modeled as a function of abiotic variables available at no charge for all terrestrial areas on Earth. Predicted importance can then be used as a surrogate to prioritize all sites. We tested this surrogate with 8 sets of species data. For each data set, we used a q% subset of sites to model importance as a function of abiotic variables, used the resulting function to predict importance for all sites, and evaluated the number of species in the sites with highest predicted importance. Sites with the highest predicted importance represented species efficiently for all data sets when q = 25% and for 7 of 8 data sets when q = 20%. Predicted importance requires less survey effort than direct selection for species representation and meets representation goals well compared with other surrogates currently in use. This less expensive surrogate may be useful in those areas of the world that need it most, namely tropical regions with the highest biodiversity, greatest biodiversity loss, most severe lack of inventory data, and poorly developed protected area networks.     

The Quagga Mussel Crisis at Lake Mead National Recreation Area,Nevada (U.S.A.)

Abstract: Parks are cornerstones of conservation; and non‐native invasive species drive extensive changes to biological diversity in parks. Knowing this, national park staff at Lake Mead National Recreation Area in the southwestern United States had a program in place for early detection of the non‐native, invasive quagga mussel (Dreissena rostriformis bugensis). Upon finding the mussel in January 2007, managers moved quickly to access funding and the best available science to implement a response. Managers considered four options—doing nothing, closing the park, restricting movement on the lakes, and educating and enforcing park visitors—and decided to focus on education and enforcing existing laws. Nonetheless, quagga spread throughout the park and soon began to appear throughout the western United States. I examined why efforts to control the expansion failed and determined the general lessons to be learned from this case. Concentrating human visitation on the lakes through land‐use zoning opened a pathway for invasion, reduced management options, and led to the rapid spread of quagga. To reconcile competing mandates to protect nature and provide recreation, zoning in parks has become a common practice worldwide. It reduces stress on some areas of a park by restricting and thus concentrating human activity in particular areas. Concentrating the human activity in one area does three things: cements pathways that repeatedly import and export vectors of non‐native invasive species; creates the disturbed area necessary to enable non‐native invasive species to gain a foothold; and, establishes a source of invasions that, without appropriate controls, can quickly spread to a park's wilderness areas.     

Incorporating detectability of threatened species into environmental impact assessment

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is a key mechanism for protecting threatened plant and animal species. Many species are not perfectly detectable and, even when present, may remain undetected during EIA surveys, increasing the risk of site‐level loss or extinction of species. Numerous methods now exist for estimating detectability of plants and animals. Despite this, regulations concerning survey protocol and effort during EIAs fail to adequately address issues of detectability. Probability of detection is intrinsically linked to survey effort; thus, minimum survey effort requirements are a useful way to address the risks of false absences. We utilized 2 methods for determining appropriate survey effort requirements during EIA surveys. One method determined the survey effort required to achieve a probability of detection of 0.95 when the species is present. The second method estimated the survey effort required to either detect the species or reduce the probability of presence to 0.05. We applied these methods to Pimelea spinscens subsp. spinescens, a critically endangered grassland plant species in Melbourne, Australia. We detected P. spinescens in only half of the surveys undertaken at sites where it was known to exist. Estimates of the survey effort required to detect the species or demonstrate its absence with any confidence were much higher than the effort traditionally invested in EIA surveys for this species. We argue that minimum survey requirements be established for all species listed under threatened species legislation and hope that our findings will provide an impetus for collecting, compiling, and synthesizing quantitative detectability estimates for a broad range of plant and animal species. Incorporación de la Capacidad de Detectar una Especie Amenazada a la Evaluación de Impacto Ambiental     

Specimen‐Based Modeling,Stopping Rules,and the Extinction of the Ivory‐Billed Woodpecker

Abstract: Assessing species survival status is an essential component of conservation programs. We devised a new statistical method for estimating the probability of species persistence from the temporal sequence of collection dates of museum specimens. To complement this approach, we developed quantitative stopping rules for terminating the search for missing or allegedly extinct species. These stopping rules are based on survey data for counts of co‐occurring species that are encountered in the search for a target species. We illustrate both these methods with a case study of the Ivory‐billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis), long assumed to have become extinct in the United States in the 1950s, but reportedly rediscovered in 2004. We analyzed the temporal pattern of the collection dates of 239 geo‐referenced museum specimens collected throughout the southeastern United States from 1853 to 1932 and estimated the probability of persistence in 2011 as <6.4 × 10^?5, with a probable extinction date no later than 1980. From an analysis of avian census data (counts of individuals) at 4 sites where searches for the woodpecker were conducted since 2004, we estimated that at most 1–3 undetected species may remain in 3 sites (one each in Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida). At a fourth site on the Congaree River (South Carolina), no singletons (species represented by one observation) remained after 15,500 counts of individual birds, indicating that the number of species already recorded (56) is unlikely to increase with additional survey effort. Collectively, these results suggest there is virtually no chance the Ivory‐billed Woodpecker is currently extant within its historical range in the southeastern United States. The results also suggest conservation resources devoted to its rediscovery and recovery could be better allocated to other species. The methods we describe for estimating species extinction dates and the probability of persistence are generally applicable to other species for which sufficient museum collections and field census results are available.     

Understanding Interaction Effects of Climate Change and Fire Management on Bird Distributions through Combined Process and Habitat Models

Abstract: Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process‐based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamata), Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus), and Rock Wren (Salpinctes obsoletus), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo (Fouquieria splendens) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf‐area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species’ use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes.     

Site‐Occupancy Distribution Modeling to Correct Population‐Trend Estimates Derived from Opportunistic Observations

Abstract: Species’ assessments must frequently be derived from opportunistic observations made by volunteers (i.e., citizen scientists). Interpretation of the resulting data to estimate population trends is plagued with problems, including teasing apart genuine population trends from variations in observation effort. We devised a way to correct for annual variation in effort when estimating trends in occupancy (species distribution) from faunal or floral databases of opportunistic observations. First, for all surveyed sites, detection histories (i.e., strings of detection–nondetection records) are generated. Within‐season replicate surveys provide information on the detectability of an occupied site. Detectability directly represents observation effort; hence, estimating detectablity means correcting for observation effort. Second, site‐occupancy models are applied directly to the detection‐history data set (i.e., without aggregation by site and year) to estimate detectability and species distribution (occupancy, i.e., the true proportion of sites where a species occurs). Site‐occupancy models also provide unbiased estimators of components of distributional change (i.e., colonization and extinction rates). We illustrate our method with data from a large citizen‐science project in Switzerland in which field ornithologists record opportunistic observations. We analyzed data collected on four species: the widespread Kingfisher (Alcedo atthis) and Sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus) and the scarce Rock Thrush (Monticola saxatilis) and Wallcreeper (Tichodroma muraria). Our method requires that all observed species are recorded. Detectability was <1 and varied over the years. Simulations suggested some robustness, but we advocate recording complete species lists (checklists), rather than recording individual records of single species. The representation of observation effort with its effect on detectability provides a solution to the problem of differences in effort encountered when extracting trend information from haphazard observations. We expect our method is widely applicable for global biodiversity monitoring and modeling of species distributions.     

Long‐Term Dynamics of a Fragmented Rainforest Mammal Assemblage

Abstract: Habitat fragmentation is a severe threat to tropical biotas, but its long‐term effects are poorly understood. We evaluated longer‐term changes in the abundance of larger (>1 kg) mammals in fragmented and intact rainforest and in riparian “corridors” in tropical Queensland, with data from 190 spotlighting surveys conducted in 1986–1987 and 2006–2007. In 1986–1987 when most fragments were already 20–50 years old, mammal assemblages differed markedly between fragmented and intact forest. Most vulnerable were lemuroid ringtail possums (Hemibelideus lemuroides), followed by Lumholtz's tree‐kangaroos (Dendrolagus lumholtzi) and Herbert River ringtail possums (Pseudocheirus herbertensis). Further changes were evident 20 years later. Mammal species richness fell significantly in fragments, and the abundances of 4 species, coppery brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula johnstoni), green ringtail possums (Pseudochirops archeri), red‐legged pademelons (Thylogale stigmatica), and tree‐kangaroos, declined significantly. The most surprising finding was that the lemuroid ringtail, a strict rainforest specialist, apparently recolonized one fragment, despite a 99.98% decrease in abundance in fragments and corridors. A combination of factors, including long‐term fragmentation effects, shifts in the surrounding matrix vegetation, and recurring cyclone disturbances, appear to underlie these dynamic changes in mammal assemblages.     

Distribution of a Community of Mammals in Relation to Roads and Other Human Disturbances in Gabon,Central Africa

We present the first community‐level study of the associations of both roads and other human disturbances with the distribution of mammals in Gabon (central Africa). Our study site was in an oil concession within a littoral mosaic landscape. We conducted surveys along 199 line transects and installed camera traps on 99 of these transects to document mammal presence and abundance. We used generalized linear mixed‐effect models to document associations between variables related to the ecosystem (land cover, topography, and hydrology), roads (coating, width of rights of way, condition, type of vehicle used on the road, traffic level, affiliation of users, and general type of road), and other human disturbances (urbanization, agriculture, hunting, logging, gathering, and industrial activities) and the abundance or presence of 17 species or groups of mammals including elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis), buffalo (Syncerus caffer), sitatunga (Tragelaphus spekei), red river hog (Potamochoerus porcus), smaller ungulates, gorilla (Gorilla gorilla), chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes), side‐striped jackal (Canis adustus), carnivores, monkeys, and large rodents. Some types of roads and other human disturbances were negatively associated with the abundance or presence of elephants, buffalos, gorillas, sitatungas, some monkeys, and duikers. The pattern of associations of mammals with roads and other human disturbances was diverse and included positive associations with road presence (red river hog, some monkeys, and duikers), agriculture (sitatunga, small carnivores, and large rodents) and industrial activities (sitatunga, red river hog, red duikers, and side‐striped jackal). Our results suggest that the community of mammals we studied was mostly affected by hunting, agriculture, and urbanization, which are facilitated by road presence. We recommend increased regulation of agriculture, hunting, and road building in the area. Distribución de una Comunidad de Mamíferos en Relación a Carreteras y Otras Perturbaciones Humanas en Gabón, Africa Central     

Latent Extinction and Invasion Risk of Crayfishes in the Southeastern United States

Abstract: Crayfishes are both a highly imperiled invertebrate group as well as one that has produced many invasive species, which have negatively affected freshwater ecosystems throughout the world. We performed a trait analysis for 77 crayfishes from the southeastern United States in an attempt to understand which biological and ecological traits make these species prone to imperilment or invasion, and to predict which species may face extinction or become invasive in the future. We evaluated biological and ecological traits with principal coordinate analysis and classification trees. Invasive and imperiled crayfishes occupied different positions in multivariate trait space, although crayfishes invasive at different scales (extraregional vs. extralimital) were also distinct. Extraregional crayfishes (large, high fecundity, habitat generalists) were most distinct from imperiled crayfishes (small, low fecundity, habitat specialists), thus supporting the “two sides of the same coin” hypothesis. Correct classification rates for assignment of crayfishes as invasive or imperiled were high (70–80%), even when excluding the highly predictive but potentially confounding trait of range size (75–90%). We identified a number of species that, although not currently listed as imperiled or found outside their native range, possess many of the life‐history and ecological traits characteristic of currently invasive or imperiled taxa. Such species exhibit a high latent risk of extinction or invasion and consequently should be the focus of proactive conservation or management strategies. Our results illustrate the utility of trait‐based approaches for taxonomic groups such as invertebrates, for which detailed species‐specific data are rare and conservation resources are chronically limited.     

Use of Community‐Composition Data to Predict the Fecundity and Abundance of Species

Abstract: Species distribution models are critical tools for the prediction of invasive species spread and conservation of biodiversity. The majority of species distribution models have been built with environmental data. Community ecology theory suggests that species co‐occurrence data could also be used to predict current and potential distributions of species. Species assemblages are the products of biotic and environmental constraints on the distribution of individual species and as a result may contain valuable information for niche modeling. We compared the predictive ability of distribution models of annual grassland plants derived from either environmental or community‐composition data. Composition‐based models were built with the presence or absence of species at a site as predictors of site quality, whereas environment‐based models were built with soil chemistry, moisture content, above‐ground biomass, and solar radiation as predictors. The reproductive output of experimentally seeded individuals of 4 species and the abundance of 100 species were used to evaluate the resulting models. Community‐composition data were the best predictors of both the site‐specific reproductive output of sown individuals and the site‐specific abundance of existing populations. Successful community‐based models were robust to omission of data on the occurrence of rare species, which suggests that even very basic survey data on the occurrence of common species may be adequate for generating such models. Our results highlight the need for increased public availability of ecological survey data to facilitate community‐based modeling at scales relevant to conservation.     

Effects of Management of Domestic Dogs and Recreation on Carnivores in Protected Areas in Northern California

Abstract: In developed countries dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) are permitted to accompany human visitors to many protected areas (e.g., >96% of protected lands in California, U.S.A.), and protected‐area management often focuses on regulating dogs due to concerns about predation, competition, or transmission of disease and conflicts with human visitors. In 2004 and 2005, we investigated whether carnivore species richness and abundance were associated with management of domestic dogs and recreational visitation in protected areas in northern California. We surveyed for mammalian carnivores and human visitors in 21 recreation areas in which dogs were allowed offleash or onleash or were excluded, and we compared our observations in the recreation areas with observations in seven reference sites that were not open to the public. Carnivore abundance and species richness did not differ among the three types of recreation areas, but native carnivore species richness was 1.7 times greater (p < 0.01) and the relative abundances of native coyotes (Canis latrans) and bobcats (Lynx rufus) were over four times greater (p < 0.01) in the reference sites. Abundances of bobcats and all carnivores declined as the number of visitors increased. The policy on domestic dogs did not appear to affect species richness and abundance of mammalian carnivores. But the number of dogs we observed was strongly associated with human visitation (R²= 0.54), so the key factors associated with recreational effects on carnivores appear to be the presence and number of human visitors to protected areas.     

Rapid Increases and Time‐Lagged Declines in Amphibian Occupancy after Wildfire

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of drought and wildfire. Aquatic and moisture‐sensitive species, such as amphibians, may be particularly vulnerable to these modified disturbance regimes because large wildfires often occur during extended droughts and thus may compound environmental threats. However, understanding of the effects of wildfires on amphibians in forests with long fire‐return intervals is limited. Numerous stand‐replacing wildfires have occurred since 1988 in Glacier National Park (Montana, U.S.A.), where we have conducted long‐term monitoring of amphibians. We measured responses of 3 amphibian species to fires of different sizes, severity, and age in a small geographic area with uniform management. We used data from wetlands associated with 6 wildfires that burned between 1988 and 2003 to evaluate whether burn extent and severity and interactions between wildfire and wetland isolation affected the distribution of breeding populations. We measured responses with models that accounted for imperfect detection to estimate occupancy during prefire (0–4 years) and different postfire recovery periods. For the long‐toed salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum) and Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris), occupancy was not affected for 6 years after wildfire. But 7–21 years after wildfire, occupancy for both species decreased ≥25% in areas where >50% of the forest within 500 m of wetlands burned. In contrast, occupancy of the boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas) tripled in the 3 years after low‐elevation forests burned. This increase in occupancy was followed by a gradual decline. Our results show that accounting for magnitude of change and time lags is critical to understanding population dynamics of amphibians after large disturbances. Our results also inform understanding of the potential threat of increases in wildfire frequency or severity to amphibians in the region. Incrementos Rápidos y Declinaciones Desfasadas en la Ocupación de Anfibios Después de un Incendio