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1.
为研究冰封期湿地沉积物污染的变化规律和主要来源,采集了包头南海湿地南海湖中20个点位的沉积物,研究分析总有机碳(TOC)、总氮(TN)和总磷(TP)的空间分布特征,并对其污染进行评价.结果表明,随着采样深度的增加,沉积物污染物的含量均在逐渐降低,且在表层中累积明显;水平分布主要受进出水口、人类活动、水体流动、外源输入、沉积物-水界面物质交换等影响,呈现一定规律.沉积物中C/N均值为10.44,说明南海湖有机物主要以外源有机质为主.此外,由相关性分析得出,沉积物中TOC、TN、TP含量两两具有极显著正相关关系(P0.01,n=20),由此说明C、N、P具有同源性.由评价结果可知,高寒旱区湖泊与其他平原浅水湖泊的碳、氮、磷沉积特征存在明显差异.  相似文献   

2.
滇池湖滨带沉积物氮形态的空间分布   总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6  
2008年4月在滇池全湖湖滨带布设23个采样点并采样,通过测量该23个表层沉积物样和16个柱状沉积物样(0~15 cm)的总氮、氨氮、硝氮和有机氮质量分数,揭示滇池湖滨带沉积物氮的李间分布.研究表明:滇池湖滨带各点位表层沉积物总氮平均质量分数为1 667mg·kg-1,低于湖区沉积物,湖滨带对湖水中氮的吸收与净化是重要原因之一.草海的污染水平高于外海,滇池外海湖滨带沉积物污染状况由北向南衰减,但南部海口出湖区湖滨带属于滇池出水口区域,其沉积物氮质量分数高于中度富营养的外海,而低于重度富营养的草海.草海和外海湖滨带沉积物总氮质量分数在2008-1992、1992-1975、1975-1960年3个时间段平均值分别为2 889.07、3 343.68、4010.20和896.57、655.37、845.01 mg·kg-1.,草海湖滨带沉积物中有机氮是总氮的主要组成部分,总氮与氨氮、硝氮、有机氮之间的相关性良好,各种形态的氮与总氮在分布情况上密切相关.而外海湖滨带沉积物中总氮仅与有机氮的相关性很好,两者的分布趋于一致,但各种形态的氮间相关性较弱、分布差异较大.  相似文献   

3.
以NH4NO3作为氮源,对广州东北郊木荷(Schima superba)人工幼林地进行模拟氮沉降处理,共设置3个氮沉降水平,分别为N0(N:0 g·m-2·a-1)、N5(N:5 g·m-2·a-1)以及N10(N:10 g·m-2·a-1),每月进行喷施。在连续施氮22个月(当月当次施氮5天后)对土壤氮素(硝氮、氨氮、总氮)、碳素(总碳)以及微生物量(脂磷)在0~60 cm土层中的垂直分布进行研究。结果显示:在3个氮沉降水平下,随着土层加深,pH呈现出下降的趋势,氮沉降存在加剧土壤酸化的风险;在N0、N5、N10水平下,土壤全氮和总碳的垂直分布趋势大体一致,随着土层加深,其含量下降,但在深层土壤(40~60 cm)中,施氮与对照比较,总碳呈现一定的增加趋势;除40~50 cm土层,N5、N10水平下的硝态氮含量在各个深度土壤中都表现为比对照组要高,氮沉降导致土壤一定程度上硝态氮的积累;在浅层土壤(0~20 cm)中,铵态氮水平较低并且其含量明显低于对照组,而在较深的土层中铵态氮有较多的积累,说明存在污染地下水的风险;N5和N10水平下,无机氮比例(无机氮含量与总氮含量之比)在各个深度土壤中总体高于N0水平;用脂磷含量表征土壤微生物含量,结果表明外加氮源对微生物含量有显著性影响,在N5、N10水平下,微生物含量在30~40 cm土层中出现峰值。  相似文献   

4.
对盐龙湖水源生态净化系统预处理区、挺水植物区、沉水植物区及深度净化区沉积物中营养盐内源负荷及氮、磷的形态空间分布特征展开研究,并评价不同单元沉积物营养盐污染状况.结果表明:盐龙湖表层沉积物总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)、有机质(OM)含量范围分别为156. 43—1130. 00 mg·kg~(-1)、615. 23—1580.66 mg·kg~(-1)、5.00%—49.04%.盐龙湖TP含量在预处理单元的沉积物中最高(1508.09 mg·kg~(-1)),在挺水植物区B的沉积物中最低(932.30 mg·kg~(-1)),而TN和OM含量都在挺水植物区A的沉积物中达到顶峰(1126.91 mg·kg~(-1),48.89%),在深度净化区的沉积物中最低(272.47 mg·kg~(-1),5.23%).闭蓄态磷(Abs-P)的含量占总磷(TP)比例最多(75.3%—82.3%),易解析磷(Exch-P)占TP比例均不超过1%;顺水流方向,铁结合态磷(Fe-P)和铝结合态磷(Al-P)含量呈下降的趋势,而Exch-P和钙磷(Ca-P)呈U字型先减后增.弱酸可提取态氮(WAEF-N)占可转化态氮(TTN)比例最高(45.3%—68.94%),强氧化剂可提取态氮(SOEF-N)占TTN比例最低(10.45%—19.08%),沉积物TTN中各形态氮含量分布次序为弱酸可提取态氮(WAEF-N)强碱可提取态氮(SAEF-N)离子交换态氮(IEF-N)强氧化剂可提取态氮(SOEF-N).通过单一因子标准指数法、综合污染指数、有机氮和有机指数法进行评价,发现在预处理区和挺水植物区A营养盐污染最严重,其他处理单元也有不同程度的污染,深度净化区污染程度最低.  相似文献   

5.
乌梁素海叶绿素a与理化因子的统计分析   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
利用2008年6月—10月乌梁素海水体叶绿素a浓度与环境理化因子的测定结果,分析了叶绿素a的时空分布特征.运用分层聚类分析法将乌梁素海现有的20个测点分成四类,找出各类测点及总测点中与叶绿素a显著相关的理化因子,建立了多元逐步回归方程.2008年乌梁素海各测点叶绿素a的平均值为6.31 mg.m-3,变幅1.54—26.87 mg.m-3;夏季最高,秋季居中,春季最低,整个区域呈现较明显的东北高西南低的分布趋势.应用SPSS统计分析软件进行相关分析的结果表明叶绿素a与BOD5、悬浮物、浊度、总磷都呈极显著相关,与透明度呈极显著负相关,与pH值和溶氧呈显著负相关.综合逐步回归方程表明,影响乌梁素海叶绿素a的理化因子因不同类型的测点各有所不同,但主要的影响因子有浊度、悬浮物、总磷、总氮、硝酸盐氮和亚硝酸盐氮.  相似文献   

6.
湖泊水体氮、磷形态分布特征及其与藻类生长的关系是湖泊富营养化研究的重要方面。采用GPS定位,在程海湖设置了3个断面9个采样点,研究了氮、磷形态分布特征,并分析了各形态氮磷与叶绿素a的相关性。结果表明:总氮(TN)质量浓度为0.773 mg.L-1,总磷(TP)质量浓度为0.046 mg.L-1,叶绿素a质量浓度为0.024 mg.L-1。氮素的赋存形态特征是以溶解态总氮(DTN)占大部分,DTN中又以溶解态有机氮(DON)占绝大部分;磷素的存在特点是溶解态无机磷(DIP)含量比重较大。各形态氮、磷都有明显的季节性波动但区域性差异不明显,叶绿素a则有明显的季节节律和时空差异。叶绿素a很好地响应了总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)、溶解态总氮(DTN)、溶解态总磷(DTP)、颗粒态总氮(PTN)、颗粒态总磷(PTP)的变化。程海富营养化受氮和磷共同限制,控制富营养化必须同时削减氮和磷。  相似文献   

7.
为了解闽江上游流域沉积物环境的现状,本文研究闽北建溪流域表层沉积物中营养元素的分布特征及生态风险,描述了表层沉积物中有机碳(TOC)、总氮(TN)和总磷(TP)的含量分布,运用单因子指数法进行生态风险评价,并分析碳、氮、磷的比例,阐述其相关关系及其环境意义.结果表明,沉积物中TOC、TN和TP的含量均值分别为3.05%、1858.05 mg·kg~(-1)和624.68 mg·kg~(-1),对多数底栖生物处于安全范围; TOC的单因子污染指数范围为2.0—5.8,TN污染指数范围为2.3—4.4,TP指数范围则为0.4—1.7,具有潜在的生态风险;沉积物营养元素比值中TOC/TN均值为16.9,TOC/TP均值为53.7,TN/TP均值为3.2,表明建溪流域沉积物营养元素受内、外源共同输入影响,且以外源作用为主导,其中林地营养物质输出是沉积物营养累积的主要原因之一.总体而言,建溪流域沉积物TN的生态风险较高且主要受流域面源排放影响,TOC与TP的生态风险较低.因此,应着重加强流域氮素面源污染调查并对重点污染源加以严控,减轻流域总氮的生态风险.  相似文献   

8.
太湖表层沉积物中多磷酸盐检出的环境意义   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
在氮限制型富营养化湖泊中,沉积多磷酸盐(Poly-P)可以用来示踪营养盐磷的输入和湖泊的富营养化过程。太湖是一个典型的磷限制型富营养化湖泊,通过对太湖表层沉积物中总有机碳(TOC)、总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)、氢氧化钠可提取磷(NaOH-P)以及Poly-P的提取分析,初步探讨了太湖营养盐磷输入的历史记录,并揭示了该湖Poly-P的主要来源和保存机制。太湖Poly-P的质量浓度较低,变化范围为0.004~0.065mg·g-1。NaOH-P占TP组成的22%,是太湖沉积物总磷的主要组成部分之一。结果显示,在湖泊水体藻类生物量较大和NaOH-P是沉积物TP重要组成部分的磷限制型湖泊中,Poly-P也是沉积物磷汇组成的一个重要部分,同时还是一个可以反映由人为磷输入增大导致湖泊富营养化程度加剧的敏感指标。  相似文献   

9.
重庆缙云山典型林分土壤有机碳密度特征   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
在全球气候变暖背景下,土壤有机碳库已经成为全球碳循环研究的重点之一.文章对缙云山针阔混交林、常绿阔叶林、毛竹林和灌木林土壤有机碳和C/N的特征进行了初步探索.结果表明,4种林分土壤有机碳含量和密度不同,且都随土壤深度增加有减少的趋势;其土壤有机碳密度的大小顺序为:灌木林(22.40 kg·m-2)>针阔混交林(12.02 kg·m-2)>毛竹林(10.09kg·m-2)>常绿阔叶林(7.97 kg·m-2).常绿阔叶林、针阔混交林和灌木林土壤有机碳主要存储于土壤Ⅰ层,其单位面积有机碳储量分别占总有机碳储量的82.18%、75.37%和68.17%;毛竹林土壤有机碳主要存储于土壤Ⅰ、Ⅱ层,这两层土壤单位面积有机碳储量占总有机碳储量的79.29%.4种典型林分的土壤C/N比也随土壤深度的增加呈现减少的趋势,与这4种林分土壤有机碳的剖面变化吻合,C/N平均值大小顺序为:灌木林(20.08)>毛竹林(9.18)>针阔混交林(8.85)>常绿阔叶林(3.00).  相似文献   

10.
陈纯  刘红涛  吴孟李  丘露  黄军如  胡韧 《生态环境》2013,(10):1701-1705
竹银水库是珠海新建的目前最大的对澳门供水水库,总库容达4500×104 m3。氮和磷是浮游植物生长繁殖的主要限制性营养元素,氮、磷的供应很大程度决定着水生生态系统的初级生产力和有机质的微生物循环,而水体氮、磷营养盐的一个重要来源就是沉积物,即底泥。以竹银水库蓄水前库内不同区域的底泥为对象,对水库内代表不同区域的10个位点底泥进行采样,通过水库蓄水模型装置,模拟无氧条件下各区域底泥在蓄水后短期内向上覆水体释放氮、磷营养盐的情况,并对释放到水体中的总氮、总磷进行2天一次的定期监测,评估该水库底泥氮、磷营养盐的释放潜力。结果表明:竹银水库库底氮、磷营养盐的释放存在空间差异,农业种植区和畜牧养殖区附近的采样点具有较大的总氮和总磷释放潜力;各采样点的总氮平均释放潜力达15 g·m-3,总磷平均释放潜力达30 mg·m-3,磷释放的风险远低于氮,磷仍将是竹银水库最主要的限制性营养元素;预计该水库在蓄水后10 d内最多可释放近1.7×105 kg的氮和1.5×103 kg左右的磷,按满库容计算,则底泥营养盐的释放使水库水体氮、磷营养盐质量浓度分别提高4.25 mg·L^-1和0.038 mg·L^-1。建议对不同区域性质的底泥采取具有针对性的处理措施:对农业种植区与牲畜养殖场区域的底泥应以清淤为主,对于其他区域可采取底泥覆盖等技术降低其营养盐释放风险。  相似文献   

11.
Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación  相似文献   

12.
Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.  相似文献   

13.
Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.  相似文献   

14.
Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.  相似文献   

15.
Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km2 around Bonga and 3000 km2 in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques  相似文献   

16.
Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.  相似文献   

17.
As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland where cashmere‐producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis. In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3‐fold increase in local profits for herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica).That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4‐fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur)in trans‐Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China's Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard(Panthera uncia), khulan(Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic‐level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere. Globalización del Mercado de Cachemira y la Declinación de Mamíferos Mayores en Asia Central  相似文献   

18.
The high conservational value of the lichen-rich vegetation and landscape of the marine foreland Ørkenen on the isle of Anholt is treated from a Danish as well as a European perspective. The sensitivity of the lichen-rich vegetation to physical disturbance is emphasized. The impact of invasive species such asPinus mugo as well as the effect of atmospheric deposition of nutrients on the heaths at Anholt is described. Considerations related to the development of a management plan for Ørkenen are presented.  相似文献   

19.
Summary The attraction of Old World leaf beetles in the genusAulacophora to kairomones and parakairomones which are effective lures for New WorldDiabrotica andAcalymma were investigated. Beetles captured on sticky traps baited with single and multicomponent lures were no different from the control traps for two species ofAulacophora. Yellow colored traps and squash blossoms are attractive toAulacophora beetles which detect sub-microgram quantities of cucurbitacins on silica gel. Leaf feeding behavior and flight activity data are correlated with varietal preference of threeAulacophora species. The common response byDiabrotica andAulacophora to cucurbitacins reinforces the two groups' coevolutionary association with the Cucurbitaceae. The apparent lack of a common response toCucurbita blossom volatiles suggests recent evolutionary pathways are substantially different for these two groups of beetles.  相似文献   

20.
Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.  相似文献   

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