生物可降解络合剂[S,S]-乙二胺二琥珀酸改性蛭石和活性炭及其对Fe(Ⅱ)的吸附性能

提出将Fe(Ⅱ)离子吸附络合稳定于活性炭、蛭石表面,再与H2O2组成新的非均相Fenton反应体系,通过加热、煮沸、干燥等简单的物理方法成功地将螯合剂EDDS([S,S]-乙二胺二琥珀酸)修饰到蛭石和活性炭表面,对蛭石和活性炭进行改性.主要研究了包括pH、温度、初始浓度、反应时间对材料吸附性能的影响.研究表明,在相同条件下EDDS改性可以提高活性炭和蛭石对Fe(Ⅱ)离子的吸附容量,溶液pH、温度、初始浓度对吸附有较大影响.吸附等温线的拟合结果表明,Fe(Ⅱ)离子在EDDS修饰的活性炭和蛭石上吸附行为符合Langmuir吸附,其饱和吸附量都有所提高,且具有较大的吸附系数,这是由于修饰在活性炭和蛭石表面的EDDS和金属离子形成强烈的络合作用所致.     

Cu(Ⅱ)印迹[CTS/PVP]和[CTS/PVP/C]材料的制备及表征

以壳聚糖(CTS)、聚乙烯吡咯烷酮(PVP)、活性炭(C)为基材,Cu(Ⅱ)为印迹离子,制备了CTS/PVP共混印迹球[Cu(Ⅱ)-IICP]和CTS/PVP/C共混印迹球[Cu(Ⅱ)-IICPC].以Cu(Ⅱ)的吸附量作为评价指标,对两种共混印迹球的制备条件进行了优化.研究结果表明,当CTS/PVP的质量比为6∶4,活性炭质量分数为0.6%,Cu(Ⅱ)模板剂质量分数为0.05%,所制备的两种共混印迹球吸附性能较佳,且对Cu(Ⅱ)有较好的选择吸附性.物理吸附分析结果表明,与未印迹相比印迹材料的比表面积明显增大.FTIR谱图分析,Cu(Ⅱ)模板主要与CTS和PVP中的—NH2和—OH发生了配位作用.XRD谱图分析结果表明,CTS与PVP、C、Cu(Ⅱ)之间发生了相互作用,改变了CTS原有的晶体结构,使其结晶度降低.     

Cu(Ⅱ)、Ca(Ⅱ)共存对IRC748树脂吸附四环素的影响与机制

通过静态pH影响、等温线和动力学实验,研究了Cu(Ⅱ)/Ca(Ⅱ)共存对亚氨基二乙酸树脂IRC748吸附四环素(TC)的影响规律.研究结果表明,广泛的pH(2—8)范围内,共存的Cu(Ⅱ)显著促进了IRC748对TC的吸附,而共存的Ca(Ⅱ)会抑制其吸附.TC对Cu(Ⅱ)/Ca(Ⅱ)的吸附影响较小.TC吸附在不同体系中均符合Frendlich模型,亲和力参数Kf随共存Cu(Ⅱ)浓度的增大而增大(约33%),随共存Ca(Ⅱ)浓度的增大而降低(约15%).不同体系中TC吸附动力学均较符合拟二级动力学方程,含Cu(Ⅱ)体系中TC与Cu(Ⅱ)的吸附进程一致.UV-Vis、FTIR、XPS和Cu(Ⅱ)预负载证明了液相中仅Cu(Ⅱ)与TC发生强烈络合,TC因[Cu-TC]络合物吸附(RouteⅠ)或Cu(Ⅱ)位点的桥联吸附作用(RouteⅡ)在IRC748上得到增强去除;Ca(Ⅱ)会与TC竞争相同的吸附位点(羧基)而降低TC的吸附.     

磷酸活化活性炭对Cu2+的吸附特征研究

寻求廉价而高效的吸附材料为目的,研究向日葵秸杆基活性炭对铜离子的吸附性能。以向日葵秸秆为原料,经H3PO4活化制备活性炭,通过静态实验研究了其对水溶液中Cu2+的吸附特性,考察了溶液pH值、吸附温度和离子强度对吸附的影响,探讨了吸附热力学、动力学和吸附机理。结果表明:溶液pH值为5～6时活性炭对Cu2+的去除效果最好;向50 mL 170 mg·L-1的溶液中加入0.5 g活性炭,温度为45℃、吸附时间为1 h时,对Cu2+的去除率可达98.3%;Langmuir方程能更好地描述Cu2+在活性炭上的等温吸附特征,静态吸附容量可达41.03 mg·g-1;吸附过程符合拟二级动力学过程,且为吸热的化学吸附过程,膜扩散为速率控制步骤,离子交换可能在吸附过程中起了重要作用。     

磷酸活化活性炭对Cu~（2＋）的吸附特征研究

寻求廉价而高效的吸附材料为目的,研究向日葵秸杆基活性炭对铜离子的吸附性能。以向日葵秸秆为原料,经H3PO4活化制备活性炭,通过静态实验研究了其对水溶液中Cu2＋的吸附特性,考察了溶液pH值、吸附温度和离子强度对吸附的影响,探讨了吸附热力学、动力学和吸附机理。结果表明：溶液pH值为5～6时活性炭对Cu2＋的去除效果最好;向50 mL 170 mg·L-1的溶液中加入0.5 g活性炭,温度为45℃、吸附时间为1 h时,对Cu2＋的去除率可达98.3%;Langmuir方程能更好地描述Cu2＋在活性炭上的等温吸附特征,静态吸附容量可达41.03 mg·g-1;吸附过程符合拟二级动力学过程,且为吸热的化学吸附过程,膜扩散为速率控制步骤,离子交换可能在吸附过程中起了重要作用。     

一株耐酸耐铜细菌的选育及其吸附铜离子的特性

从某铜矿选矿废水中筛选分离出一株在强酸性条件下对铜去除能力较高的菌株Z-1,经鉴定为克雷伯氏杆菌.考察了碳源、氮源、pH、温度、吸附时间、投菌量等因素对菌株Z-1生长量及吸附Cu2+的影响.结果表明,菌株Z-1的最佳碳源为乙酸钠,其最佳用量为3 g.L-1;最佳氮源为硫酸铵,最佳用量为1.2 g.L-1.在投菌量为4 g.L-1、温度为30℃、吸附时间为4 h的条件下,菌株Z-1对pH=3、Cu2+100 mg.L-1的废水吸附效果最优,Cu2+去除率达到59.7%.菌株Z-1对Cu2+的吸附过程能很好地用吸附模型Langmuir方程描述,菌株Z-1去除的铜离子,有92.3%分布在细胞壁上,其余7.7%分布在细胞质内,说明菌株Z-1对铜离子的去除主要为表面吸附.     

Adsorption of Cu（Ⅱ） on rice straw char from acidic aqueous solutions

研究了稻草炭对Cu（Ⅱ）的吸附特征,探讨了Cu（Ⅱ）的吸附机制.结果表明,稻草炭对Cu（Ⅱ）有很高的吸附容量,Langmuir方程能很好地拟合Cu（Ⅱ）吸附等温线,因此可以描述稻草炭对Cu（Ⅱ）的吸附,其预测的Cu（Ⅱ）在pH 4.5和pH 5.0时的最大吸附量分别为0.628 mol.kg-1和0.763 mol.kg-1.稻草炭对Cu（Ⅱ）的吸附量随体系pH升高而增加,但吸附Cu（Ⅱ）的解吸率呈相反的变化趋势.当吸附体系pH≤4.5时,Cu（Ⅱ）解吸率大于55%,说明此时以静电吸附为主;在较高pH条件下Cu（Ⅱ）以非静电吸附机制为主.红外光谱的分析结果表明,稻草炭表面有丰富的—COOH和—OH等含氧官能团,Cu2＋与含氧官能团形成有机络合物导致—COOH吸附峰位移.Cu（Ⅱ）吸附使稻草炭颗粒的Zeta电位向正值方向位移.结果说明Cu（Ⅱ）在稻草炭表面发生了专性吸附.     

添加农作物秸秆炭对红壤吸附Cu(Ⅱ)的影响

为考察秸秆生物质炭在重金属污染红壤修复中的作用,用一次平衡法研究了由花生秸秆、大豆秸秆、稻草和油菜秸秆制备的4种生物质炭对采自江西和广西的2种红壤吸附Cu(Ⅱ)的影响及其机制。结果表明,添加由农作物秸秆制备的生物质炭提高了红壤对Cu(Ⅱ)的吸附量,生物质炭对Cu(Ⅱ)吸附的促进作用随生物质炭添加量的增加而增加,低pH值条件下促进作用更明显。pH值4.0和w为2%生物质炭添加水平下,油菜秸秆炭、花生秸秆炭、大豆秸秆炭和稻草炭使江西红壤对Cu(Ⅱ)的吸附量较对照分别增加97%、79%、51%和54%;花生秸秆炭和大豆秸秆炭使广西红壤对Cu(Ⅱ)的吸附量较对照分别增加61%和44%,当生物质炭添加水平w达4%时,Cu(Ⅱ)吸附量的增幅达97%和165%。生物质炭表面带负电荷,可以同时增加红壤对Cu(Ⅱ)的静电吸附量和专性吸附量,但以增加专性吸附为主。因此,添加秸秆生物质炭可以有效降低Cu(Ⅱ)在酸性红壤中的活动性和生物有效性。     

三峡库区消落带土壤对Cu(Ⅱ)、Zn(Ⅱ)的吸附特征

以三峡库区消落带紫色土为对象,采用平衡吸附法研究了Cu(Ⅱ)、Zn(Ⅱ)在紫色土中的吸附特征,分析了紫色土对重金属的吸附能力.结果表明:(1)随着加入Cu(Ⅱ)、Zn(Ⅱ)浓度增高,紫色土对Cu(Ⅱ)、Zn(Ⅱ)的吸附量增大,碱性紫色土对Cu(Ⅱ)、Zn(Ⅱ)的吸附量最高分别为1499.5 mg.kg-1、2845.4 mg.kg-1;(2)土壤中有Cu(Ⅱ)、Zn(Ⅱ)的专性吸附位点,在两者共存的条件下存在竞争吸附,Cu(Ⅱ)的竞争吸附能力大于Zn(Ⅱ),其各自的最大吸附量小于单一离子条件下的吸附量,碱性、中性、酸性紫色土Cu(Ⅱ)最大吸附量的下降幅度分别是14.5%、15.2%、15.9%,Zn(Ⅱ)的最大吸附量下降幅度分别为31.7%、28.1%、25.7%;(3)共存阳离子类型及浓度影响紫色土有效Cu(Ⅱ)、Zn(Ⅱ)含量,随着阳离子的加入,碱性紫色土的有效Cu(Ⅱ)含量增加,酸性紫色土减少,而3种紫色土的有效Zn(Ⅱ)含量均增加.消落带土壤淹水后,水体中Cu(Ⅱ)及其他阳离子的存在使土壤对Zn(Ⅱ)的吸附力降低,造成Zn(Ⅱ)污染的环境风险增加.     

β-环糊精功能化石墨烯对印染废水中酸性大红G和橙黄Ⅱ的吸附

本文合成了β-环糊精功能化的石墨烯纳米材料(β-CD-GNs),考察了其作为一种新型高效吸附剂对水中酸性大红G(ASG)和橙黄Ⅱ(OrangeⅡ)的吸附性能.该材料结合了石墨烯和β-环糊精的特性,表现出对所述两种染料良好的吸附性能,吸附平衡时间小于3 min,吸附率达90%以上,β-CD-GNs对ASG和橙黄Ⅱ的最大吸附量为622.2 mg·g~(-1)和534.7 mg·g~(-1).另外,考察了β-CD-GNs用量、溶液pH、反应温度对吸附效果的影响.结果表明,当溶液pH值为6.0,β-CD-GNs浓度达到25 mg·L~(-1)时,吸附率最大,而且吸附率随反应温度升高而降低.通过对吸附数据进行线性拟合发现,β-CD-GNs对ASG和橙黄Ⅱ的吸附等温线符合Langmuir吸附等温式.该材料在印染废水的处理领域有潜在的应用价值.     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

What Every Conservation Biologist Should Know about Economic Theory

Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.     

Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity

Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km² around Bonga and 3000 km² in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques     

Globalization of the Cashmere Market and the Decline of Large Mammals in Central Asia

As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland where cashmere‐producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis. In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3‐fold increase in local profits for herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica).That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4‐fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur)in trans‐Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China's Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard(Panthera uncia), khulan(Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic‐level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere. Globalización del Mercado de Cachemira y la Declinación de Mamíferos Mayores en Asia Central     

The lichen-rich coastal heath vegetation on the isle of Anholt, Denmark — conservation and management

The high conservational value of the lichen-rich vegetation and landscape of the marine foreland Ørkenen on the isle of Anholt is treated from a Danish as well as a European perspective. The sensitivity of the lichen-rich vegetation to physical disturbance is emphasized. The impact of invasive species such asPinus mugo as well as the effect of atmospheric deposition of nutrients on the heaths at Anholt is described. Considerations related to the development of a management plan for Ørkenen are presented.     

Behavior and ecology of Old World Luperini beetles of the genusAulacophora (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Summary The attraction of Old World leaf beetles in the genusAulacophora to kairomones and parakairomones which are effective lures for New WorldDiabrotica andAcalymma were investigated. Beetles captured on sticky traps baited with single and multicomponent lures were no different from the control traps for two species ofAulacophora. Yellow colored traps and squash blossoms are attractive toAulacophora beetles which detect sub-microgram quantities of cucurbitacins on silica gel. Leaf feeding behavior and flight activity data are correlated with varietal preference of threeAulacophora species. The common response byDiabrotica andAulacophora to cucurbitacins reinforces the two groups' coevolutionary association with the Cucurbitaceae. The apparent lack of a common response toCucurbita blossom volatiles suggests recent evolutionary pathways are substantially different for these two groups of beetles.     

Use of stochastic patch occupancy models in the California red-legged frog for Bayesian inference regarding past events and future persistence

Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.