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1.
通过海洋纤毛虫寡毛双眉虫Diophrysoligothrix对水产养殖中常用药物高锰酸钾、福尔马林及鲁哥氏液的急性毒性实验 ,以几率单位法获得双眉虫对福尔马林及鲁哥氏液的 2h、12h的半致死浓度LC50 值 :对前者 ,LC50 ,2h值为 5 9.35× 10 -6,LC50 ,12h为 5 2 .5 4× 10 -6;对于后者 ,LC50 ,2h为 12 4.5 4× 10 -6,LC50 ,12h为 72 .98× 10 -6.在此基础上对3种药物的作用效果及杀灭浓度进行了比较 ,结果表明 ,寡毛双眉虫对福尔马林的耐受力明显小于鲁哥氏液 ,同时显示高锰酸钾是在养殖动物耐受阈内可迅速杀灭纤毛虫的理想药物 .图 4表 5参 11  相似文献   

2.
利用实验生态学方法探讨温度对3种海洋纤毛虫——缩原克鲁虫(Protocruzia contrax)、拉氏游仆虫(Euplotes raikovi)和中华游仆虫(E.sinica)纤毛虫种群增长的影响.纤毛虫采用米粒培养液培养,测定其在4个温度(17℃、22℃、27℃和32℃)下的密度变化,计算种群生态学参数(种群增长率和温度系数).结果显示:1)拉氏游仆虫种群密度在27℃最大(2.73×103 ind/mL),而缩原克鲁虫和中华游仆虫在22℃下最大(分别为1.58×104 ind/mL和8.50×102 ind/mL);2)缩原克鲁虫和中华游仆虫在4种温度下的种群增长率大小顺序均为:32℃组27℃组22℃组17℃组,而中华游仆虫的顺序为:22℃组27℃组32℃组17℃组;3)3种纤毛虫的指数期长度均随培养温度的升高而变短;4)3种纤毛虫的温度系数(Q10)的大小顺序为:中华游仆虫拉氏游仆虫缩原克鲁虫.结果表明,3种纤毛虫具有不同的最适宜的种群增长温度范围,缩原克鲁虫和拉氏游仆虫对高温的耐受范围较宽,在32℃下也能保持较高的种群增长率和密度;中华游仆虫温度范围较窄,在32℃和17℃下均不能进行正常的种群增长.  相似文献   

3.
研究了在实验室常温条件下敌杀死、索虫亡、百草一号、敌敌畏、卷清、逐灭(池塘水)、逐灭(自来水)、锐劲特、抑虱净、草甘膦、星科等10种农药对克氏原螯虾(Procambarus clarkii)幼虾的急性毒性效应.试验结果表明,克氏原螯虾幼虾对不同农药的耐受力相差较大.敌杀死、索虫亡、百草一号、敌敌畏、卷清、逐灭(池塘水)、逐灭(自来水)、锐劲特、抑虱净、草甘膦、星科对克氏原螯虾幼虾的24h半致死浓度(24hLC50)分别为4.62×10-3、2.28×10-2、16.7、2.57×10-1、4.73×10-3、8.91×10-2、2.97×10-2、8.90×10-2、8.08、5.52×103、3.64×10-1mg·L-1;48h半致死浓度(48hLC50)分别为3.07×10-3、1.46×10-2、15.8、1.98×10-1、4.33×10-3、3.48×10-2、1.48×10-2、6.01×10-2、6.47、4.06×103、1.99×10-1mg·L-1;其安全浓度(SC)分别为4.07×0-4、1.80×10-3、4.16、3.72×10-2、1.09×10-3、1.59×10-3、1.10×10-3、8.22×10-3、1.24、6.59×102、1.78×10-2mg·L-1.相比之下,草甘膦对克氏原螯虾幼虾的毒性最低,百草一号的毒性也相对较低,可以作为稻虾混养系统病虫害防治的首选,而敌杀死、卷清等对克氏原螯虾幼虾的毒性极高,应尽量避免使用.  相似文献   

4.
为揭示不同碳氮比对纤毛虫种群增长的影响以及纤毛虫对碳源和能量来源的选择性 ,利用实验生态学方法 ,对海水养殖水体中 3种常见的纤毛虫原生动物 :扇形游仆虫 (Euplotesvannus)、海洋尾丝虫 (Uronemamarinum)和巨大拟阿脑虫 (Paranophrysmagna)在牛肉浸膏及梯度浓度葡萄糖培养基中的种群增长过程进行了初步的探讨 .数据分析表明 ,在牛肉浸膏培养基中加入不同浓度的葡萄糖对于纤毛虫种群增长影响显著 ,其中在 0 .0 5 gL-1葡萄糖浓度的培养基中 3种纤毛虫种群增长最佳 (P <0 .0 5 ) ,而在 0 .4 gL-1浓度时纤毛虫的生长繁殖均受到高度抑制 (P <0 .0 5 ) .这一结果显示 ,不同C N比对纤毛虫的种群增长有着直接的影响 .图 3表 3参 10  相似文献   

5.
为揭示不同碳氮比对纤毛虫种群增长的影响以及纤毛虫对碳源和能量来源的选择性,利用实验生态学方法,对海水养殖水体中3种常见的纤毛虫原生动物扇形游仆虫(Euplotes vannus)、海洋尾丝虫(Uronema marinum)和巨大拟阿脑虫(Paranophrys magna)在牛肉浸膏及梯度浓度葡萄糖培养基中的种群增长过程进行了初步的探讨.数据分析表明,在牛肉浸膏培养基中加入不同浓度的葡萄糖对于纤毛虫种群增长影响显著,其中在0.05 g L-1葡萄糖浓度的培养基中3种纤毛虫种群增长最佳(P< 0.05),而在0.4 g L-1浓度时纤毛虫的生长繁殖均受到高度抑制(P<0.05).这一结果显示,不同CN比对纤毛虫的种群增长有着直接的影响. 图3 表3 参10  相似文献   

6.
为揭示纤毛虫对弧菌 (Vibriosp.)种群增长的影响 ,利用实验生态学方法对弧菌在海水养殖水体中两种常见的纤毛虫原生动物 ,扇形游仆虫 (EuplotesvannusM櫣ller)和海洋尾丝虫 (UronemamarinumDujardin) ,摄食胁迫下的种群增长过程进行了探讨 .数据分析显示 ,弧菌的种群密度在纤毛虫的指数增长期高于对照组 ,但在纤毛虫种群生长平衡期则显著低于对照组 (P <0 .0 5 ) ,在纤毛虫种群生长衰退期则呈回升的趋势 .结果同时还表明 ,海洋纤毛虫的摄食胁迫对弧菌的繁殖具有明显的激活效应 ,但对其种群生长起着显著的抑制作用 .此外 ,本工作也进一步证实了食菌性纤毛虫对改良水质和维持一个健康的养殖环境所具有的积极作用 .图 6参 15  相似文献   

7.
为评价辛基酚(OP)对中国林蛙(Rana chensinensis)蝌蚪的急性毒性,将26期蝌蚪暴露在浓度为5.0×10-7~5.0×10-6mol·L-1OP的水体中进行急性毒性实验.结果显示,蝌蚪的死亡率随着OP浓度的升高和暴露时间的延长而增加,24、48、72、96h的半数致死浓度(LC50)分别为3.55×10-6、2.96×10-6、1.90×10-6、1.52×10-6mol·L-1;96h零致死浓度(96hLC0)为9.70×10-7mol·L-1;安全浓度(SC)为1.52×10-7mol·L-1.另外,为探讨SC以下OP对蝌蚪生长发育的影响,将26期蝌蚪连续暴露在1.0×10-7、5.0×10-8、1.0×10-8、1.0×10-9mol·L-1OP的水体中,并设1.0×10-7、1.0×10-8mol·L-1雌二醇(E2)阳性对照及空白对照,直至70%蝌蚪完全变态.在暴露20d、40d和70%蝌蚪完全变态时共3次测量蝌蚪及幼蛙的体长和体重,分别统计70%蝌蚪发育至跗蹠部伸长期、前肢伸出期和完全变态期所需的时间.结果表明,SC以下OP和E2对蝌蚪死亡率的影响不明显,但1.0×10-9~1.0×10-7mol·L-1OP和1.0×10-7、1.0×10-8mol·L-1E2可不同程度地延缓蝌蚪发育时间,降低蝌蚪体长和体重,并导致少数蝌蚪发育畸形.结果说明低浓度OP与E2相似,对蝌蚪生长发育具有抑制作用.  相似文献   

8.
为评价辛基酚(OP)对中国林蛙(Rana chensinensis)蝌蚪的急性毒性,将26期蝌蚪暴露在浓度为5.0×10-7~5.0×10-6mol·L-1 OP的水体中进行急性毒性实验. 结果显示,蝌蚪的死亡率随着OP浓度的升高和暴露时间的延长而增加,24、48、72、96h的半数致死浓度(LC50)分别为3.55×10-6、2.96×10-6、1.90×10-6、1.52×10-6mol·L-1;96h零致死浓度(96hLC0)为9.70×10-7mol·L-1;安全浓度(SC)为1.52×10-7mol·L-1. 另外,为探讨SC以下OP对蝌蚪生长发育的影响,将26期蝌蚪连续暴露在1.0×10-7、5.0×10-8、1.0×10-8、1.0×10-9mol·L-1 OP的水体中,并设1.0×10-7、1.0×10-8 mol·L-1雌二醇(E2)阳性对照及空白对照,直至70%蝌蚪完全变态. 在暴露20d、40d和70%蝌蚪完全变态时共3次测量蝌蚪及幼蛙的体长和体重,分别统计70%蝌蚪发育至跗蹠部伸长期、前肢伸出期和完全变态期所需的时间. 结果表明,SC以下OP和E2对蝌蚪死亡率的影响不明显,但1.0×10-9~1.0×10-7mol·L-1 OP和1.0×10-7、1.0×10-8mol·L-1 E2可不同程度地延缓蝌蚪发育时间,降低蝌蚪体长和体重,并导致少数蝌蚪发育畸形. 结果说明低浓度OP与E2相似,对蝌蚪生长发育具有抑制作用.  相似文献   

9.
双酚A对中国林蛙蝌蚪生长发育的毒性效应   总被引:4,自引:2,他引:2  
为评价双酚A(BPA)对中国林蛙(Rana chensinensis)蝌蚪的急性毒性,将26期的蝌蚪暴露于浓度为2.4×10-5mol·L-1~4.2×10-5mol·L-1BPA的水体中进行急性毒性实验.结果表明,24、48、72、96h蝌蚪的死亡几率(y)与浓度对数(x)的回归方程分别为y=16.915x-4.1157、y=22.11x-6.1905、y=20.766x-5.3871、y=20.715x-5.351;半数致死浓度(LC50)分别为3.47×10-5、3.28×10-5、3.20×10-5、3.16×10-5mol·L-1.安全浓度(SC)为0.88×10-5mol·L-1.为探讨在安全浓度以下BPA对中国林蛙蝌蚪生长发育的影响,将林蛙蝌蚪分别于10-5、10-6、10-7mol·L-1BPA的水体中连续暴露直至完全变态,并设10-8、10-9mol·L-1雌二醇(E2)的阳性对照和空白对照,分别测定并统计蝌蚪发育所需的发育时间、体长和体质量.结果表明,蝌蚪对10-5、10-6、10-7mol·L-1BPA与10-8、10-9mol·L-1E2的效应相似,可延缓林蛙幼体的发育时间,导致体长和体质量降低.推测低浓度BPA抑制蝌蚪生长发育的机制之一是干扰了正常的内分泌活动.  相似文献   

10.
为了揭示出海洋纤毛虫在人工海水中及不同温度下的种群动力学,利用实验生态学方法,就4种培养液及2种(17℃和23℃)温度对海洋纤毛虫扇形游仆虫(Euplotesvannus Müller,1786)种群增长的影响进行了初步探讨.结果显示①该种纤毛虫原生动物在4种人工海水培养液中的种群增长率大小顺序为牛肉浸膏培养液>米粒培养液>酵母粉培养液>蛋白胨培养液;②种群密度大小顺序依次为米粒培养液>牛肉浸膏培养液>酵母粉培养液>蛋白胨培养液;③指数增长期及稳定期在米粒培养液中均长于牛肉浸膏培养液;④随着培养温度的升高,种群增长率增大,指数增长期及稳定期缩短;⑤温度系数(Q10)的大小顺序为蛋白胨培养液>牛肉浸膏培养液>米粒培养液>酵母粉培养液.结果表明,米粒人工海水培养液不仅适合于保种培养,而且适合于种群的扩大培养,而牛肉浸膏培养液更适合于种群的快速扩大培养,其他两种培养液则只适合于保种培养.图2表4参13  相似文献   

11.
Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación  相似文献   

12.
Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.  相似文献   

13.
Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.  相似文献   

14.
Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.  相似文献   

15.
Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km2 around Bonga and 3000 km2 in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques  相似文献   

16.
Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.  相似文献   

17.
As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland where cashmere‐producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis. In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3‐fold increase in local profits for herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica).That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4‐fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur)in trans‐Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China's Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard(Panthera uncia), khulan(Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic‐level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere. Globalización del Mercado de Cachemira y la Declinación de Mamíferos Mayores en Asia Central  相似文献   

18.
The high conservational value of the lichen-rich vegetation and landscape of the marine foreland Ørkenen on the isle of Anholt is treated from a Danish as well as a European perspective. The sensitivity of the lichen-rich vegetation to physical disturbance is emphasized. The impact of invasive species such asPinus mugo as well as the effect of atmospheric deposition of nutrients on the heaths at Anholt is described. Considerations related to the development of a management plan for Ørkenen are presented.  相似文献   

19.
Summary The attraction of Old World leaf beetles in the genusAulacophora to kairomones and parakairomones which are effective lures for New WorldDiabrotica andAcalymma were investigated. Beetles captured on sticky traps baited with single and multicomponent lures were no different from the control traps for two species ofAulacophora. Yellow colored traps and squash blossoms are attractive toAulacophora beetles which detect sub-microgram quantities of cucurbitacins on silica gel. Leaf feeding behavior and flight activity data are correlated with varietal preference of threeAulacophora species. The common response byDiabrotica andAulacophora to cucurbitacins reinforces the two groups' coevolutionary association with the Cucurbitaceae. The apparent lack of a common response toCucurbita blossom volatiles suggests recent evolutionary pathways are substantially different for these two groups of beetles.  相似文献   

20.
Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.  相似文献   

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