北加利福尼亚州猫类血清中的全氟和多氟化合物浓度：时间尺度上的对比以及与甲状腺机能亢进的关联性

室内环境暴露和膳食摄入是公认的全氟和多氟化合物(per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, PFAS)的人类主要暴露途径。猫类因为与人类共处一室而有着与人类相似的暴露途径，不过，它们有着不同于人类的膳食结构、体型和室内活动特征。我们分别于2008至2010年(n=21)和2012至2013年(n=22)采集了2组大于10岁的北加利福尼亚州猫(Northern California cats)的血清，并测定了血清中的PFAS浓度。第二阶段(2012–2013)总PFAS浓度(∑PFAS)的几何平均数(GM)为8.10 ng/mL低于第一阶段(2008–2010)的15.8 ng/mL，而两阶段的PFAS种类和组成相似。同时，我们也于2008–2010在相同地理区域采集了人类血清，并分析得到血清中的∑PFAS的GM为14.3 ng/mL。猫类血清中长链全氟羧酸(特别是PFNA和PFUnDA)的浓度显著高于人类血清中的。第二阶段采集的样品测定结果表明甲状腺机能亢进(hyperthyroid, HT)的猫类血清∑PFAS的GM(9.50 ng/mL)高于非HT的猫类(7.24 ng/mL)。其中HT猫类血清PFOA浓度显著增高(P<0.05)。研究表明PFAS浓度与猫类HT有可能的相关性，确切的结果需要进一步研究。 精选自Miaomiao Wang, Weihong Guo, Steve Gardner, Myrto Petreas,June‐Soo Park. Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances in Northern California Cats: Temporal Comparison and a Possible Link to Cat Hyperthyroidism. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry,2018,37:2523–2529.
详情请见 https://doi.org/10.1002/etc.4239
     

美国和五大湖双边共同关注区域的白肚燕(双色树燕)雏鸟的有机污染状况

白肚燕，又名双色树燕，栖居于五大湖流域中27个双边共同关注区域(AOCs)，从2010年到2014年对其进行了污染物暴露风险评估，以协助管理者和监管者评估五大湖AOCs的污染状况。本文比较了AOCs和附近非AOCs雏鸟体内污染物浓度的差异。AOCs白肚燕雏鸟尸体中多氯联苯(PCB)和多溴联苯醚的含量分别为30%和33%，低于非AOCs的平均浓度。AOCs白肚燕雏鸟胃含物中多环芳烃(PAH)浓度和血浆中全氟化合物浓度分别为67%和64%，也低于非AOCs的平均浓度。但是与已有生殖效应记载的高PCB污染区相比，有些AOCs雏鸟尸体内的PCBs浓度只是存在小幅升高。一些AOCs食物中PAHs的浓度足够高以致引起可测量的生理响应。在AOCs中，全氟化合物全氟辛烷磺酸在血浆中的最高浓度出现在Raisin河(密歇根州，美国；几何平均数330 ng/mL)，但远低于预估毒性的参考值(1 700 ng/mL)。之前有研究报道雏鸟胃含物中PAH和PCB的浓度以及尸体中PCBs的含量与沉积物中污染物的含量显著相关，从而可加强白肚燕在评估沉积物污染生物有效性方面的应用。
精选自Thomas W. Custer, Christine M. Custer, Paul M. Dummer, Diana Goldberg, J. Christian Franson, Richard A. Erickson. Organic contamination in tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) nestlings at United States and binational Great Lakes areas of concern. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 36, Issue 3, pages 735–748, July 2017. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3598
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/etc.3598/full
     

长三角地区水体中全氟化合物的污染特征及风险评价

为探究长三角地区水环境中全氟化合物(PFASs)的污染分布特征及风险水平，对长三角地区水环境中11种PFASs进行了研究.通过固相萃取结合液相色谱-三重四极杆串联质谱的方法对该地区水环境中PFASs污染水平进行分析，并运用环境风险熵值法对该地区水环境中PFASs污染进行了风险评估.结果表明PFASs在长三角地区广泛存在，Σ8PFASs浓度为8.64—736.74 ng·L^-1，其中主要污染物为全氟辛酸(PFOA)、全氟己酸(PFHxA)和全氟己烷磺酸盐(PFHxS)，其浓度范围分别为4.49—517 ng·L^-1、0.92—688 ng·L^-1和0.51—260 ng·L^-1.源解析结果表明长三角大部分地区水环境中PFASs污染来源于前体化合物降解所形成的面污染源，少部分地区水环境PFASs污染来源于部分行业直接排放形成的点污染源.风险评估结果显示该地区水环境中PFASs的生态风险值和健康风险熵值均低于参考值，对生态环境和人体健康的风险水平较低.     

常熟氟化学工业园水环境和生物样品中全氟化合物的分布

采用Oasis-WAX-SPE柱富集,高效液相色谱/电喷雾负离子源串联质谱(HPLC/negative ESI/MS/MS)对常熟氟化学工业园区地表河水样品和水生动物样品(乙腈萃取物)中的全氟及多氟化合物(PFASs)进行了测定,分别检测出8种和14种PFASs.园区河水中总PFASs浓度范围为91.0—9374.9 ng.L-1,为国内已有报道中最高;PFOA和PFPrA是河水样品中含量最高的两种PFASs,且在不同水样中均可占到总PFASs的73%以上,未检出PFOS;生物样品中总PFASs浓度范围为12.93—394.77 ng.g-1ww(湿重),PFOA、PFOS和PFPrA为主要PFASs;与园区所在城市的鱼类等样品相比较,采自氟化学工业园区的鱼类体内富集了更多的PFAS.研究结果表明,常熟氟化学工业园区地表水环境PFOA和PFPrA污染较重,为目前国内最高水平;在园区河水和生物体内检测出高浓度的PFPrA,说明氟化学工业园区内部分工厂可能已使用短链氟化物替代PFOA和PFOS,在今后的研究中对PFPrA等短链全氟化合物的监测应给予更多关注.     

全氟烷基化合物在人体肝脏中的富集特征及其与肝损伤的关系

全氟烷基化合物(polyfluoroalkyl substances,PFASs,F(CF_2)_n-R)是广泛用于生产生活中的有机污染物,研究发现PFASs的暴露会对人体造成危害.为分析人体肝脏中PFASs的富集特征,本研究采用高效液相色谱串联质谱(HPLC-MS/MS)的方法,对天津市31例肝癌患者肝脏中10种PFASs(全氟己烷磺酸PFHxS、全氟辛烷磺酸PFOS、全氟十二酸PFDoDA、全氟己酸PFHxA、全氟庚酸PFHpA、全氟十一酸PFUnDA、全氟壬酸PFNA、全氟癸酸PFDA、全氟辛酸PFOA、全氟戊酸PFPeA)进行检测分析.结果表明,PFOS、PFOA、PFNA、PFUnDA和PFHxS具有较高的检出率(80%);∑PFASs浓度范围为8.97—181.87 ng·g~(-1),其中PFOS的平均浓度最高(40.87 ng·g~(-1)),占∑PFASs的77%;∑PFASs的平均浓度在男性肝脏样品中(64.04 ng·g~(-1))与女性样品中(36.82 ng·g~(-1))存在显著性差异,PFHxS、PFOS和PFDA的浓度在性别上也均呈显著差异,PFOA的浓度与年龄呈显著负相关性.此外,PFOA和PFHpA的浓度分别与肝细胞损伤标志物ALT和GGT之间存在显著正相关性.本研究是国内首次对人体肝脏中PFASs的暴露分析,PFOS是肝脏的主要暴露物;PFASs对男性的暴露风险高于女性,且青年人群PFASs的暴露风险相对较高;另外,浓度水平进行分析,PFASs的暴露与人体肝脏损伤存在统计学关联.     

河岸蜘蛛——多样水生生态系统中PCB污染的指示生物

栖息在河岸的蜘蛛越来越多地被用来追踪水生生态系统中存在和流出污染物的空间格局。然而，我们对蜘蛛在何种情况下可有效标志水生污染的认识有限。本研究力证在具有高生境异质性的水生生态系统中，能够有效地利用河岸蜘蛛来追踪沉积物中多氯联苯(PCBs)污染的空间格局。2011年到2013年，在五大湖共同关注区(AOC)的Manistique河流域，对2类常见科属的河岸蜘蛛进行采样，结果表明生物体内的ΣPCB浓度的空间格局能够普遍地追踪采样点范围内沉积物中ΣPCBs的空间变化。该研究区域位于密歇根北部半岛南岸(Manistique，MI，US)，是一个河口生态系统，包括港口、河流、回水和湖泊等栖息地。沉积物ΣPCB浓度用总有机碳浓度进行归一，解释了11个采样点中41%的以脂类归一的蜘蛛ΣPCB浓度变异。此外，2类常见河岸蜘蛛类群(园蛛科Araneidae和长脚蛛科Tetragnathidae)的ΣPCB浓度高度相关(r² > 0.78)，并且按全年计算其平均ΣPCB浓度两者相似。结果表明，在异质性的水生生态系统中，例如在河流入海口，会因为栖息地和污染物变化在水生生物分类中的差别不明显，河岸蜘蛛就可能成为水生和河岸食物网中PCB有效性的标记物。此外，对于为不同种群大型结网蜘蛛提供生存条件的海岸线开发和沿岸植被的生境异质性，目前的方法具有很强的适用性。
精选自Kraus, J. M., Gibson, P. P., Walters, D. M. and Mills, M. A. (2017), Riparian spiders as sentinels of polychlorinated biphenyl contamination across heterogeneous aquatic ecosystems. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 36: 1278–1286. doi: 10.1002/etc.3658
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3658/full
     

评估可离子化有机化合物的生物累积潜力：当前的认知和研究的重点

本研究的目的是回顾目前关于可离子化有机化合物(IOCs)的生物累积潜力的认知，重点讨论鱼类经验数据的有效性。IOCs在鱼体内的生物积累潜力可以很好地表征为：依赖pH的鳃摄取和排泄，肠道吸收和磷脂吸附(膜-水分区)。关键的挑战包括缺乏关于IOCs生物转化和血浆结合的经验数据。鱼拥有多种蛋白质，可以在细胞膜上传输IOCs。然而，除了少数情况下，这种传输对环境污染物的吸收和积累的意义是未知的。本文提出了2个研究案例。第一个描述了pH值和生物转化对有机酸和碱的生物富集的建模作用，而第二个则采用了一个更新的模型来研究导致全氟烷基酸积累的因素。全氟化烷基酸个案研究是值得关注的，因为它说明了膜转运蛋白在肾脏中可能具有的重要性，并强调了交叉比对方法(read-across approaches)的潜在价值。认识到当前需要对IOCs进行生物累积危害评估和生态风险评估，作者提供了一个分层策略，从保守的假设(模型和相关数据)到需要化学特定信息的更复杂的模型。
精选自Armitage, J. M., Erickson, R. J., Luckenbach, T., Ng, C. A., Prosser, R. S., Arnot, J. A., Schirmer, K. and Nichols, J. W. (2017), Assessing the bioaccumulation potential of ionizable organic compounds: Current knowledge and research priorities. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 36: 882–897. doi: 10.1002/etc.3680
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3680/full
     

全氟和多氟烷基化合物异构体的分析方法、环境行为和生物效应研究进展

全氟和多氟烷基化合物(Per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances,PFASs)是一类人为源的有机污染物,普遍具有环境持久性、生物富集性和潜在毒性.环境中的PFASs存在直链和多种支链异构体,各种异构体的环境界面行为以及生物富集、代谢和毒性效应存在显著差异.只有从单个异构体的角度进行分析,才能准确评估PFASs潜在的生态和健康风险.本文对PFAS异构体的来源、命名和分析方法进行了介绍,总结了PFAS异构体在不同介质中的环境行为和生物效应研究的最新进展,有助于全面认识环境中PFASs的迁移转化规律及最终归趋.     

湖鲟(Acipenser fulvescens)早期生命阶段对2,3,7,8-四氯二苯并-p-二恶英和3,3''4,4''5-五氯联苯的敏感性研究

自20世纪中叶以来，五大湖区的水生食物网就已受到多氯联苯化合物(PCBs)的污染。对于长寿命鱼类，如湖鲟(Acipenser fulvescens)，由于缺乏该物种的相对敏感性信息，一直无法确定其PCB暴露的风险。本文的研究目标就是评估湖鲟早期生命阶段对3,3''4,4''5-五氯联苯(PCB-126)或2,3,7,8-四氯二苯并-p-二恶英(TCDD)暴露的敏感性。死亡率、生长、形态和组织病理学、游泳能力和活动水平都被用作评估终点。心包和卵黄囊水肿、管状心脏、卵黄囊出血和体长较小是TCDD和PCB-126暴露中最常见的病理症状，早在受精4 d后就开始出现，其中许多的病理都以一种剂量依赖的方式发生。湖鲟体内PCB-126和TCDD的半致死剂量分别为5.4 ng/g egg(95%置信区间，3.9-7.4 ng/g egg)和0.61 ng/g egg (0.47-0.82 ng/g egg)。由此产生的PCB-126的相对强度因子(0.11)远大于世界卫生组织对鱼的估计值(毒性当量因子=0.005)，这表明目前的风险评估可能低估了PCB对湖鲟的毒性。在受精60 d后，从半致死剂量中幸存的湖鲟的游泳活性和耐力均有所下降。阈值和半数效应毒性值表明，与在北美发现的另一种鲟鱼属Scaphirhynchu相比，湖鲟对PCB和TCDD更为敏感。事实上，在大湖区和其他地方的湖鲟种群都容易受到PCB/ TCDD诱导,使胚胎发育受到影响，游泳能力下降。
精选自Tillitt, D. E., Buckler, J. A., Nicks, D. K., Candrl, J. S., Claunch, R. A., Gale, R. W., Puglis, H. J., Little, E. E., Linbo, T. L. and Baker, M. (2017), Sensitivity of lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) early life stages to 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-P-dioxin and 3,3′,4,4′,5-pentachlorobiphenyl. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 36: 988–998. doi: 10.1002/etc.3614
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3614/full
     

全氟化工厂土芯中全氟化合物的分布规律

本文对全氟化合物(PFASs)生产工厂厂内及周边土芯样品中的PFASs进行了研究.PFASs浓度范围为1.19—1495 ng·g-1dw(干重),其中全氟辛基磺酸盐(PFOS)浓度在3个主要单体(全氟己基磺酸盐(PFHxS)、PFOS及全氟辛酸(PFOA))中处于最高水平.整体上,土芯中PFASs浓度由上到下呈下降趋势,其浓度与TOC呈正相关.在一个已经停产10年左右的生产企业周围土芯中仍然发现了较高浓度的PFASs,说明其在环境中存在着较强的持久性.     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Rapid,recurring, structured survey versus bioblitz for generating biodiversity data and analysis with a multispecies abundance model

A bioblitz inexpensively and quickly generates biodiversity data, but bioblitzes are often conducted with haphazard, unreplicated sampling. Results tend to be taxonomically, geographically, or temporally biased, lack metadata, and consist of lists of observed taxa that do not enable further analyses or correction for imperfect detection. A rapid, recurring, structured survey (RRSS) uses a structured sampling design and temporal and spatial replication to survey randomly selected sites on a conservation property. We participated in a loosely structured bioblitz and a subsequent RRSS at Big Canoe Creek Nature Preserve in Springville (St. Clair County), Alabama (USA) to compare observed richness derived from the 2 survey approaches. The RRSS data structure enabled us to fit models that accounted for imperfect detection to estimate abundances, occupancy probabilities, and habitat associations. The loosely structured bioblitz data could not be used in such models. We present a new integrated multispecies abundance model that we applied to avian RRSS data. Our model extension enables estimation for the community, employs data augmentation to estimate the number of undetected species, and incorporates covariates. The RRSS generated a more comprehensive and less biased list of observed taxonomic richness than the loosely structured bioblitz (e.g., 73 vs. 45 bird species and 104 vs. 63 insect families from the RRSS vs. loosely structured bioblitz, respectively). Models fit to the RRSS data identified seasonal patterns in avian community composition and allowed for estimation of habitat–occupancy relationships for insect taxa. The RRSS protocol has potential for broad transferability as a standardized, quick, and inexpensive way to inventory biodiversity and estimate ecological parameters while providing an outreach opportunity.     

Compliance with and ecosystem function of biodiversity offsets in North American and European freshwaters

Land-use change via human development is a major driver of biodiversity loss. To reduce these impacts, billions of dollars are spent on biodiversity offsets. However, studies evaluating offset project effectiveness that examine components such as the overall compliance and function of projects remain rare. We reviewed 577 offsetting projects in freshwater ecosystems that included the metrics project size, type of aquatic system (e.g., wetland and creek), offsetting measure (e.g., enhancement, restoration, and creation), and an assessment of the projects’ compliance and functional success. Project information was obtained from scientific and government databases and gray literature. Despite considerable investment in offsetting projects, crucial problems persisted. Although compliance and function were related to each other, a high level of compliance did not guarantee a high degree of function. However, large projects relative to area had better function than small projects. Function improved when projects targeted productivity or specific ecosystem features and when multiple complementary management targets were in place. Restorative measures were more likely to achieve targets than creating entirely new ecosystems. Altogether the relationships we found highlight specific ecological processes that may help improve offsetting outcomes.     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

A palaeo-hydrogeological model for arsenic contamination in southern and south-east Asia

An argument is presented in which areas of natural arsenic contamination of modern groundwaters throughout Asia have a common origin. Arsenic originally accumulated in oceanic ferro-manganoan sediments of the eastern Palaeo-Tethys. This was further concentrated through oceanic crustal extinction in what later became the south-east Chinese accreted mineralised terrain. Proto-Himalayan uplift of this area created the palaeo-drainage systems of the Ganges – Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Mekong, and Red Rivers, with consequent headwater erosion of arsenic-rich sediments. Their downstream deposition as immature and easily redistributed Neogene sandstones, silts, and iron-rich clays has created secondary and tertiary reservoirs of adsorbed and authigenic arsenic, from which the current arsenic-rich groundwaters have evolved. Considering river basins within the above palaeo-hydrogeological framework provides a basis for assessing the risk of arsenic in groundwater basins of south and south-eastern Asia.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

Cost‐effective conservation of an endangered frog under uncertainty

How should managers choose among conservation options when resources are scarce and there is uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of actions? Well‐developed tools exist for prioritizing areas for one‐time and binary actions (e.g., protect vs. not protect), but methods for prioritizing incremental or ongoing actions (such as habitat creation and maintenance) remain uncommon. We devised an approach that combines metapopulation viability and cost‐effectiveness analyses to select among alternative conservation actions while accounting for uncertainty. In our study, cost‐effectiveness is the ratio between the benefit of an action and its economic cost, where benefit is the change in metapopulation viability. We applied the approach to the case of the endangered growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis), which is threatened by urban development. We extended a Bayesian model to predict metapopulation viability under 9 urbanization and management scenarios and incorporated the full probability distribution of possible outcomes for each scenario into the cost‐effectiveness analysis. This allowed us to discern between cost‐effective alternatives that were robust to uncertainty and those with a relatively high risk of failure. We found a relatively high risk of extinction following urbanization if the only action was reservation of core habitat; habitat creation actions performed better than enhancement actions; and cost‐effectiveness ranking changed depending on the consideration of uncertainty. Our results suggest that creation and maintenance of wetlands dedicated to L. raniformis is the only cost‐effective action likely to result in a sufficiently low risk of extinction. To our knowledge we are the first study to use Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis to explicitly incorporate parametric and demographic uncertainty into a cost‐effective evaluation of conservation actions. The approach offers guidance to decision makers aiming to achieve cost‐effective conservation under uncertainty.     

What Every Conservation Biologist Should Know about Economic Theory

Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.     

Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity

Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km² around Bonga and 3000 km² in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques