专家系统及其在农业与自然资源管理中的应用

阐述了专家系统的概念及其与传统程序、其它计算机辅助决策的区别，综述了专家系统在农业与自然资源管理中的应用现状及其日益重要的作用，探讨了农业专家系统的发展趋向。     

环境专家系统

本文介绍了国内外环境专家系统的发展状况。环境专家系统成功的应用表明环境专家系统是解决环境问题的一个有力工具，环境专家系统将越来越广泛地应用于环境科学中，环境专家系统与决策支持系统相结合以及将神经网络技术应用于环境专家系统中，是环境专家系统的发展方向，文中还介绍了我们正在研究的大气污染总量控制规划专家系统。     

土壤遥感分类识别专家系统的结构设计

介绍了土壤遥感分类识别专家系统的设计原理与实现方法，阐述了土壤遥感分类识别专家系统的土壤分类决策判断树的构造原理，讨论了土壤遥感分类识别专家知识表示的基本原则和系统知识库中专家知识的组织方式，以及专家系统推理机的设计原理和推理规则的构建方法。系统采用压缩编码方式存储地学专题图形和遥感图像数据，具有数据与图像的存储更新、查询检索、分析处理、特征提取和信息输出等功能。该系统可以对遥感图像进行土壤类型的分类识别，并对分类精度进行监测与评价。用该系统对新疆天山北麓阜康试验区的土壤分类识别进行了试验研究，并对试验结果进行了讨论与评价。     

珍稀濒危植物评价分级专家系统研究

开列珍稀濒危植物的清单并划分其保护序列，是生物多样性保护的一项最基本的工作。本文通过对珍稀濒危植物评价分级指标的研究，以评价指标体系为基础，并引入专家系统方法，建立了珍稀濒危植物评价分级专家系统。该系统模拟人类专家的思维过程，将有助于把珍稀濒危植物优先保护级别的划分，由定性划分提高到定量定性相结合的水平。     

有机化合物厌氧生物降解性的测定和预测

测定有机物厌氧生物降解性的方法包括非特性参数和特性参数测定法。本文着重介绍有机物厌氧生物降解性的筛选测定法，以基团贡献法为基础，不外加其它理化参数的有机物结构与生物降解性关系的预测已经由简单的线性模型发展至专家系统和人工神经网络模型，并显示出极好的应用前景。     

外来有害生物风险评估技术

概述了有害生物风险分析的概念、必要性、生物学基础和一般程序；论述了生态气候图、农业气候相似距库、生态气候评价的分析模型、地理信息系统、专家系统、基于定性分析与定量估算相结合的数学模型等有害生物风险分析技术的原理和特点；认为应用网络技术，建立基于分布式计算的全球入侵物种风险评价数据体系，可有效提高风险评价的速度和准确性。     

危险废物管理专家决策支持系统

应用信息系统正在得到迅猛发展。能用来解决一些有关危险废物问题的专家系统和决策支持系统就是如此。本文介绍了两种方法不同但互为补充的应用。第一种是危险废物管理专家系统（SEGRI）,它侧重于潜在环境风险评价,危险废物法律分类（欧共体,西班牙和加泰罗尼亚）,和对可能处理的诊断。另一种是信息系统（RESIN）,它使用户能利用与产生废物流工业活动有关的文字数字和图表数据（工艺、特性、处理、数量等）来支持决策过程。     

用Excel2000线性规划最低成本法设计饲料配方

利用Excel2000电子数据表格软件提供的线性规划对畜禽的饲料配方寻求最优解，具有科学、运算速度快、增减原料随意和数据修改容易等优点，可以省去手工计算饲料配方的繁琐，与研制出来的专家系统饲料配方软件及相关计算机设计饲料配方的程序相比，该方法无须要求使用者首先购买这些软件和程序，只要用户购买电脑并安装上Excel7000电子数据表格软件后即可运用线性规划设计饲料配方。     

森林土壤退化及其防治研究综述

介绍了土壤退化的概念；从树种生物学特性、人工林植物群落结构和栽培措施方面探讨了森林土壤退化的机理；提出了防治森林土壤退化的对策。文章最后指出，应从多学科的角度深入系统地研究地力衰退的机理，利用遥感、地理信息系统等高新技术手段构建包括计算机模拟模型、林地指南、关键决策系统、专家系统等在内的不同的预测和决策工具，同时加强天然林的进一步研究。     

外来有害生物风险评估技术

概述了有害生物风险分析的概念、必要性、生物学基础和一般程序 ;论述了生态气候图、农业气候相似距库、生态气候评价的分析模型、地理信息系统、专家系统、基于定性分析与定量估算相结合的数学模型等有害生物风险分析技术的原理和特点 ;认为应用网络技术 ,建立基于分布式计算的全球入侵物种风险评价数据体系 ,可有效提高风险评价的速度和准确性。     

Predicting the distributions of marine organisms at the global scale

We present and evaluate AquaMaps, a presence-only species distribution modelling system that allows the incorporation of expert knowledge about habitat usage and was designed for maximum output of standardized species range maps at the global scale. In the marine environment there is a significant challenge to the production of range maps due to large biases in the amount and location of occurrence data for most species. AquaMaps is compared with traditional presence-only species distribution modelling methods to determine the quality of outputs under equivalently automated conditions. The effect of the inclusion of expert knowledge to AquaMaps is also investigated. Model outputs were tested internally, through data partitioning, and externally against independent survey data to determine the ability of models to predict presence versus absence. Models were also tested externally by assessing correlation with independent survey estimates of relative species abundance. AquaMaps outputs compare well to the existing methods tested, and inclusion of expert knowledge results in a general improvement in model outputs. The transparency, speed and adaptability of the AquaMaps system, as well as the existing online framework which allows expert review to compensate for sampling biases and thus improve model predictions are proposed as additional benefits for public and research use alike.     

Arbeitskreis der Landesanstalten und-Ämter: Konzeption der künftigen Aufgabenbereiche

The expert panel for biological indication and effect research of the state institutes and agencies, pursues the harmonisation and optimisation of methods used for biological indication since 1980. This demonstrated increased significance after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the admission of the new German states, formerly East Germany. The publication of recommendations and the co-operation with other panels of experts (for example the VDI (association of German engineers) build the basis for the expert panel’s effect on the public. As first federal biological indication system, the expert panel, together with the federal institute for the environment, introduced moss-monitoring in the Federal Republic of Germany. For the future, the main point of effort will still lie in the exchange of information between state agencies and the harmonisation of methods. Above this, the expert panel should control the co-ordination of biological indication for a federal environment surveillance, develop evaluation strategies and methods, point out research deficiencies and develop new methods when necessary. Thus, for example, the expert panel has to point out possible connections and co-operations towards the monitoring of genetically manipulated organisms and changes in climate. Existing biological indication methods, including moss-monitoring, are to be screened for actuality and, when necessary, are to undergo further developments. The expert panel will also work on the development of effect-related environmental indicators as tools for an indication of ecological sustainability.     

Assessment of uncertainties in expert knowledge, illustrated in fuzzy rule-based models

The coherence between different aspects in the environmental system leads to a demand for comprehensive models of this system to explore the effects of different management alternatives. Fuzzy logic has been suggested as a means to extend the application domain of environmental modelling from physical relations to expert knowledge. In such applications the expert describes the system in terms of fuzzy variables and inference rules. The result of the fuzzy reasoning process is a numerical output value. In such a model, as in any other, the model context, structure, technical aspects, parameters and inputs may contribute uncertainties to the model output. Analysis of these contributions in a simplified model for agriculture suitability shows how important information about the accuracy of the expert knowledge in relation to the other uncertainties can be provided. A method for the extensive assessment of uncertainties in compositional fuzzy rule-based models is proposed, combining the evaluation of model structure, input and parameter uncertainties. In an example model, each of these three appear to have the potential to dominate aggregated uncertainty, supporting the relevance of an ample uncertainty approach.     

Fuzzy experts on recreational vessels, a risk modelling approach for marine invasions

Understanding risks from the human-mediated spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) is a critical component of marine biosecurity management programmes. Recreational boating is well-recognised as a NIS pathway, especially at a regional scale. Assessment of risks from this pathway is therefore desirable for coastal environments where recreational boating occurs. However, formal or quantitative risk assessment for the recreational vessel pathway is often hampered by lack of data, hence often relies on expert opinion. The use of expert opinion itself is sometimes limited by its inherent vagueness, which can be an important source of uncertainty that reduces the validity and applicability of the assessment. Fuzzy logic, specifically interval type-2 fuzzy logic, is able to model and propagate this type of uncertainty, and is a useful technique in risk assessment where expert opinion is relied upon. The present paper describes the implementation of a NIS fuzzy expert system (FES) for assessing the risk of invasion in marine environments via recreational vessels. The FES was based on expert opinion gathered through systematic elicitation exercises, designed to acknowledge important uncertainty sources (e.g., underspecificity and ambiguity). The FES, using interval type-2 fuzzy logic, calculated an invasion risk value (integrating NIS infection and detection probabilities) for a range of invasion scenarios. These scenarios were defined by all possible combinations of two vessel types (moored and trailered), five vessel components (hull, deck, internal spaces, anchor, fishing gear), two infection modes (fouling, water/sediment retention) and six frequently visited marine habitats (marina, mooring, farm, ramp, wharf, anchorage). Although invasion risk values determined using the FES approach was scenario-specific, general patterns were identified. Moored vessels consistently showed higher invasion risk values than trailered vessels. Invasion risk values were higher for anchorages, moorings and wharves. Similarly, hull-fouling was revealed as the highest infection risk mode after pooling results across all habitats. The NIS fuzzy expert system presented here appears as a valuable prioritising and decision-making tool for NIS research, prevention and control activities. Its easy implementation and wide applicability should encourage the development and application of this type of system as an integral part of biosecurity, and other environmental management plans.     

外来鱼类入侵风险评估体系及方法

根据中国外来鱼类的入侵现状,分析了建立外来鱼类入侵风险评估体系的蕈要性、必要性和应用前景.在现状调查、文献分析和专家咨询的基础上,构建了一套包含5个一级指标、12个二级指标、44个三级指标的可定量化的外来鱼类入侵风险评估指标体系,确定了各指标权重,并举例说明了该评估体系的应用.