外来有害生物风险评估技术

概述了有害生物风险分析的概念、必要性、生物学基础和一般程序；论述了生态气候图、农业气候相似距库、生态气候评价的分析模型、地理信息系统、专家系统、基于定性分析与定量估算相结合的数学模型等有害生物风险分析技术的原理和特点；认为应用网络技术，建立基于分布式计算的全球入侵物种风险评价数据体系，可有效提高风险评价的速度和准确性。     

海洋放射性污染生态风险评价研究进展

近年来,随着我国核电事业迅猛发展,海洋放射性污染的风险激增,放射物质的事故性污染将成为海洋环境一个重要问题。目前,海洋环境放射性污染风险评估的研究仍然较为薄弱,开展海洋放射性污染生态风险评价有助于了解事故对海洋生态的危害程度,为海洋与海岸带环境管理提供科学决策依据,维护海洋生态系统的健康与安全。梳理总结当前国内外海洋放射性污染生态风险评价的相关研究进展,结果表明:目前国内外对海洋放射性污染生态风险评价尚未做出科学的定义;现有海洋放射性污染生态风险评价的技术路线大体可归纳为基于经典风险评估框架和基于迭代的生态风险评价框架2种类型;ERICA Tool模型以及RESRAD-BIOTA模型是目前放射性风险评价中应用最多的方法 ,但存在海洋放射性污染标准限值少的问题;现有的研究主要集中于评估事故中后期均衡条件下的长期慢性暴露评价,对事故初期的高剂量、短期急性暴露的风险影响研究较少;我国海洋放射性污染的生态风险评价与环境影响评价的概念混淆,至今没有明确的海洋放射性污染生态风险评价的概念及技术框架。     

生态风险评价框架进展研究

生态风险评价是评价生态压力引起的不利生态效应的可能性的过程,可为环境风险管理提供理论及技术支持。生态风险评价框架是一套标准化的方法体系,规定了生态风险评价的总体工作内容、技术路线、关键方法步骤和各阶段产出成果,为生态风险评价的科学方法有效转化为生态环境管理策略提供途径。从20世纪90年代起,以美国为代表的一批发达国家逐步构建了生态风险评价技术框架,并颁布了一系列相关标准、导则和技术文件,直接支撑了上述国家生态环境保护相关的现行法律法规,影响了有关国家的生态环境管理与决策。而我国对于生态风险评价的具体实施还缺乏规范性的指导方法。该文以美国、英国和澳大利亚的4套与土壤环境污染关系密切的生态风险评价框架为例,介绍国际生态风险评价框架的内容,并结合我国在环境影响评价和农药安全评价领域的生态风险评价方法研究进展,对我国生态风险评价框架的研究发展方向进行分析。     

不同国家基于生态风险的土壤筛选值研究及启示

本文介绍了土壤生态筛选值的定义以及国外一些国家在污染土壤生态风险评估领域的相关土壤筛选值。由于地理生态、社会文化、行政法规以及标准制定的科学基础等差异使各国基于生态风险的土壤筛选值的制定方法各有特色,导致各国基于生态风险的土壤筛选值名称和筛选值之间存在较大差异。我国的生态风险评价研究起步较晚,目前还没有国家权威机构发布的诸如土壤生态筛选值、生态风险评价技术导则等文件。本文就目前国外一些权威机构推出的并得到广泛认可的相关标准、方法做简要介绍,就国际上不同国家的土壤生态筛选值的制定方法、理论体系、使用策略等进行详细描述,为我国制定相关筛选值的方法体系提供参考,旨在推动我国基于生态风险的污染土壤筛选值的建立和生态风险评估研究。     

基于生态系统服务的土地整治生态风险评价与管控建议

土地整治的生态风险评价与管理是生态文明背景下土地整治项目可持续发展的客观要求。"十三五"期间,土地整治投资和力度规模持续加大,在对区域社会和经济发展带来积极作用的同时,也会对区域生态系统结构与功能产生深远影响,如何管控土地整治的生态风险受到越来越多的关注。在系统阐述了土地整治生态风险的内涵与特点的基础上,分析了土地整治不同生态效应所对应的生态风险因子与评价指标体系,提出了基于土地整治全过程分析的生态风险识别、评价与管控的思路,并将生态系统服务功能的提升作为生态风险评价的重要内容,克服了以往生态风险研究更多侧重生态系统结构与功能本身变化的局限性,并指出了土地整治生态风险所需要关注的科学问题与发展趋势。     

基于盲数的水体沉积物潜在生态风险评价方法

基于生态风险评价系统中多种不确定性共存或交叉存在的特性,将盲数理论应用于水体沉积物潜在生态风险的评价研究。在将Hakanson潜在生态风险指数模型参数定义为盲参数的基础上,建立了沉积物潜在生态风险评价的盲数模型,并提出了污染程度和潜在生态风险等级识别盲数可靠性计算模型。根据上述盲数模型,不仅可以得到沉积物污染程度和潜在生态风险的可能取值区间,也可以得到各区间相应的可信度水平,进而定量计算待评价对象隶属于各评价等级的主观可能性大小。作为案例,将上述模型应用于巢湖十五里河河口沉积物中重金属潜在生态风险评价的研究。在得到沉积物中单个重金属污染物(Hg,Cd,Pb,Cu,Cr)隶属于污染程度各等级和潜在生态风险各等级可信度水平的基础上,得出十五里河河口处于较高生态风险水平的结论,相应的可信度为0.626。实例研究表明,以盲数理论评价沉积物的潜在生态风险,理论上可行,评价结论可信。     

跳虫在土壤污染生态风险评价中的应用

随着土壤污染生态风险评价研究的逐步深入,选择适宜的生物作为风险评价的指示物成为研究热点.跳虫是一种分布极为广泛的土壤无脊椎动物,对土壤污染十分敏感,具有成为土壤环境质量指示生物的良好潜力.目前跳虫在土壤生态风险评价中的应用研究尚处于起步阶段.论文综述了跳虫在土壤生态系统中的作用,通过对当前跳虫生态毒性测试技术及其影响因素的综合分析,结合跳虫的分子生态效应的研究进展,详细阐述了跳虫在土壤生态风险评价中的应用.论文最后提出了跳虫应用于土壤污染生态风险评价所面临的技术障碍以及亟待解决的问题,并对该领域的前景进行了展望。     

农药生态风险评价研究进展

介绍了美国和欧盟农药生态风险评价研究工作的最新进展,包括农药生态风险评价涉及的重要及最新概念、评价程序、不同地区多层次评价方法的比较,同时重点介绍了农药生态风险评价的关键技术--暴露评价及暴露场景的建立,最后提出了加强我国农药生态风险评价研究工作的具体建议.     

某陆地石油开采区土壤重金属潜在生态风险评价

本研究基于对某陆地石油开采区表层土壤中6种重金属(Pb、Cd、Cu、Zn、Cr和Co)的采样测试及空间分布分析,采用主成分分析法和Hakanson潜在生态风险指数法分别对土壤中6种重金属来源进行分析,并对其潜在生态风险水平进行评价.研究结果表明,研究区域内重金属来源主要包括交通源、工业源、农业源;在所有采样点位中,6号采样井的潜在生态风险指数(RI)为430.07,风险等级为"强",其余依次为5号>3号>2号>1号>4号;6个采样井中有4个井潜在生态风险等级达到了中等及以上,且6个采样井的平均综合潜在生态风险水平为中等及以上;研究区域内土壤中Cd对综合潜在生态风险贡献最高,达到94.43%.     

基于自然灾害的北京幅综合生态风险评价

经过20多年的发展,风险源评价从单一风险源扩展到多风险源,风险受体从单一受体发展到多受体,评价尺度也从种群、生态系统扩展到区域和景观水平。但总体说来,对多风险源、多过程的多个生态系统层次的风险评价尚不成熟。运用数字高程模型、干燥度分布图、植被指数、人口密度以及8种自然灾害风险源频率分布图、土地利用图、植被类型图、陆地生态系统生态资产分布图等数据,基于ArcGIS 9.2平台,综合考虑生态的脆弱性,风险源的发生频率,受体的暴露水平、危害程度等,对多风险源、多个生态系统综合的北京幅生态风险进行评价。旨在对区域综合生态风险评价方法进行探讨。评价结果显示：（1）高风险区主要为本区环渤海湾沿岸,包括天津市,河北唐山、沧州,山东滨州、东营、潍坊等沿海地带;以及本图幅西部、北部的太行山地,包括河北省、北京市及图幅西部的山西、河南部分地区;（2）较低生态风险区所占比例较高,达42.55%,可见降低生态风险有很大的潜力;（3）高强度的人类开发,尤其是在滨海地区围海造陆,将会导致沿海地区生态风险更高。     

Risk assessment in the face of a changing environment: gypsy moth and climate change in Utah.

The importance of efficaciously assessing the risk for introduction and establishment of pest species is an increasingly important ecological and economic issue. Evaluation of climate is fundamental to determining the potential success of an introduced or invasive insect pest. However, evaluating climatic suitability poses substantial difficulties; climate can be measured and assessed in a bewildering array of ways. Some physiological filter, in essence a lens that focuses climate through the requirements and constraints of a potential pest introduction, is required. Difficulties in assessing climate suitability are further exacerbated by the effects of climate change. Gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) is an exotic, tree-defoliating insect that is frequently introduced into the western United States. In spite of an abundance of potential host species, these introductions have yet to result in established populations. The success of eradication efforts and the unsuccessful establishment of many detected and undetected introductions may be related to an inhospitable climate. Climatic suitability for gypsy moth in the western United States, however, is potentially improving, perhaps rapidly, due to a general warming trend that began in the mid 1970s and continues today. In this work, we describe the application of a physiologically based climate suitability model for evaluating risk of gypsy moth establishment on a landscape level. Development of this risk assessment system first required amassing databases that integrated the gypsy moth climatic assessment model, with host species distributions, and climate (historical, present, and future). This integrated system was then used to evaluate climate change scenarios for native host species in Utah, with the result that risk of establishment will dramatically increase during the remainder of the 21st century under reasonable climate change scenarios. We then applied the risk assessment system to several case histories of detected gypsy moth introductions in Utah. These applications demonstrated the general utility of the system for predicting risk of establishment and for designing improved risk detection strategies.     

低剂量杀虫剂对昆虫的兴奋性效应(Insecticides-Induced Hormesis on Insects)

传统的杀虫剂毒理学应用线性非阈值模型评价杀虫剂的毒力及风险,但是没有考虑到低剂量杀虫剂所产生的毒物兴奋效应(Hormesis).杀虫剂对昆虫的低剂量兴奋效应主要表现在对昆虫的发育历期、体重和生殖力以及毒力等方面所产生的影响.在概述毒物低剂量兴奋效应理论及研究方法的基础上,重点介绍了杀虫剂对昆虫的低剂量兴奋性效应研究进展及其与杀虫剂亚致死剂量效应的区别,最后讨论了杀虫剂的兴奋效应对农业害虫防治所带来的影响.     

防污漆中活性物质海洋环境风险评估关键技术探讨

防污漆中的活性物质对海洋生态环境和人类健康造成的潜在风险受到日益广泛的关注,一些发达国家已建立了针对活性物质海洋环境风险评估的技术体系,但我国相关研究目前尚属空白。综述了防污漆活性物质海洋环境风险评估的研究背景、相关法规、技术标准和发展现状,针对环境风险评估的2个重要组成部分(危害性评估和暴露评估)中的关键技术进行了探讨。在危害性评估中,重点分析和比较了受试生物物种的选择原则、生态毒理数据的要求以及预测无效应浓度的推导方法和应用范围;在暴露评估中,系统阐述了活性物质在水环境中释放速率的计算及修正方法、环境浓度的预测模型、现有的暴露场景及其局限性等。本文以期为我国开展防污漆活性物质海洋环境风险评估提供研究基础和科学依据,并提出了今后的研究重点和方向。     

A framework designation for the assessment of urban ecological risks

Urban ecological risks stemming from urbanization are increasing and limiting the capability of China to effectuate sustainable urban development. Therefore, addressing urban ecological risks is an urgent need. Numerous factors are involved in urban ecological risks, including air, water, and soil. Additionally, risk sources and risk receptors are complex and diverse. In this study, urban ecological risks are defined as adverse effects and possibility of impacts on urban ecosystem services resulting from urbanization. Urbanization is recognized as the risk source, and the urban ecosystem is considered the risk receptor. Based on this understanding, the components of urban ecological risks are defined, and the relationships between the components of urban ecological risks are illuminated by establishing an indicator system. Based on previous studies on urban ecological risks, an explicit framework for identification, assessment, and management of urban ecological risks is proposed. For purposes of identification, there are three types of risk sources: population growth, industrial development, and the expansion of built land. Stressors include the accumulation of contaminants, consumption of resources, and occupation of space. Assessment endpoints are divided into provisioning, regulating, cultural, and supporting services. In response to urban ecological risks having multiple stressors and multiple assessment endpoints, we assessed risks both with a single stressor/single endpoint and comprehensive ecological risks. In our framework, the physical or material assessment of ecosystem services is adopted as the core method for the analysis of urban ecological risk, because it is believed that the analysis of urban ecological risk should be based on the physical or material assessment of ecosystem services instead of the value assessment of ecosystem services. The results of the single value assessment of urban ecosystem services will cause the deviation from the purpose of urban ecosystem services assessment. The purpose of urban ecosystem services assessment is to maintain and/or improve the capability of urban ecosystems of providing physical or material services, and further to reduce or avoid the occurrence risks of unsustainable cities. Additionally, a multi-level characterization method was adopted for the results of urban ecological risk assessment. In this study, we established a platform to manage urban ecological risks based on landscape ecology and environmental internet of things technologies, and to effectuate online urban ecological risk identification, assessment, and management via this platform.     

Development of a framework for fire risk assessment using remote sensing and geographic information system technologies

Forest fires play a critical role in landscape transformation, vegetation succession, soil degradation and air quality. Improvements in fire risk estimation are vital to reduce the negative impacts of fire, either by lessen burn severity or intensity through fuel management, or by aiding the natural vegetation recovery using post-fire treatments. This paper presents the methods to generate the input variables and the risk integration developed within the Firemap project (funded under the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology) to map wildland fire risk for several regions of Spain. After defining the conceptual scheme for fire risk assessment, the paper describes the methods used to generate the risk parameters, and presents proposals for their integration into synthetic risk indices. The generation of the input variables was based on an extensive use of geographic information system and remote sensing technologies, since the project was intended to provide a spatial and temporal assessment of risk conditions. All variables were mapped at 1 km² spatial resolution, and were integrated into a web-mapping service system. This service was active in the summer of 2007 for semi-operational testing of end-users. The paper also presents the first validation results of the danger index, by comparing temporal trends of different danger components and fire occurrence in the different study regions.     

Incorporating anthropogenic variables into a species distribution model to map gypsy moth risk

This paper presents a novel methodology for multi-scale and multi-type spatial data integration in support of insect pest risk/vulnerability assessment in the contiguous United States. Probability of gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) establishment is used as a case study. A neural network facilitates the integration of variables representing dynamic anthropogenic interaction and ecological characteristics. Neural network model (back-propagation network [BPN]) results are compared to logistic regression and multi-criteria evaluation via weighted linear combination, using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) and a simple threshold assessment. The BPN provided the most accurate infestation-forecast predictions producing an AUC of 0.93, followed by multi-criteria evaluation (AUC = 0.92) and logistic regression (AUC = 0.86) when independently validating using post model infestation data. Results suggest that BPN can provide valuable insight into factors contributing to introduction for invasive species whose propagation and establishment requirements are not fully understood. The integration of anthropogenic and ecological variables allowed production of an accurate risk model and provided insight into the impact of human activities.     

有毒化学品的健康风险评价概论

本文介绍与有毒化学品健康风险评价有关的基本概念.阐明有毒化学品风险评价与风险管理的关系,概述健康风险评价的基本程序与方法,综述对健康风险评价进行管理的主要内容.     

水生态模拟系统及其在化学品生态风险评估中的应用

水生态模拟系统是用于高层次化学品生态风险评估的测试模型,目前在国外已经广泛用于工业化学品、农药、兽药、重金属等单一化学物质和复杂混合物的生态风险评估研究,而我国的相关研究比较匮乏。随着我国化学品风险评估体系的完善,水生态模拟系统测试必将作为作为单一生物毒性测试的有效补充。在此背景下,简述了水生态模拟系统的分类、研究方法和结果外推方法;从单一化学物质暴露作用下的生态危害评估、多种化学物质联合暴露作用下的生态危害评估以及目标化学物质的归趋分析三个方面阐述了水生态模拟系统在国内外化学品风险评估科学研究中的应用,对比了水生态模拟系统和单一物种毒性测试结果和基于两种测试数据的生态危害评估结果。与此同时,分析了水生态模拟系统在国内外化学品环境管理中的应用情况。在此基础上,对我国发展水生态模拟系统所存在的问题及解决方案提出了建议。     

种群水平生态风险评价方法概述及其在环境管理中的应用

生态风险评价的目的是保护生态系统功能的完整性、稳定性和持久性,为环境风险管理提供理论依据。然而,目前常见的用于保护生物的化学污染物浓度阈值大多是以个体水平的毒性试验结果为基础,忽略了物种在时间和空间相互作用等因素,不能够完全保护生态环境安全和生态系统功能的延续性。本文从生态风险评价的概念、目的和意义引出种群水平生态风险评价在环境管理应用的重要性,综述了种群水平生态风险评价的科学问题(如密度依赖、遗传变异和空间结构等),归纳了种群水平风险评价主要模型方法及其应用(如Euler-Lotka方程、预测矩阵、个体模型、空间模型和动态能量预算模型等),列举了各国现有法律法规中关于种群水平生态风险评价的规定,以期为种群水平生态风险评价方法研究及在环境管理中的应用提供有益借鉴。