极性有机化合物整合采样技术在水环境有机污染物监测中的应用

极性有机化合物整合采样技术(Polar organic chemical integrative samplers,POCIS)适用于极性有机污染物的采集,随着新型极性有机污染物的不断出现,该技术已经引起了科学家的广泛关注.本文概述了几种常用的被动采样装置,重点介绍了POCIS采样器的一般结构、富集原理、环境因素如流速、温度、pH、溶解性有机质、盐度及膜的污染等对采样速率的影响,讨论了针对极性物质检测的质量控制和保证以及性能参考物质,综述了POCIS在水环境有机污染物监测中的应用.最后,本文对POCIS的应用前景进行了展望.     

二级出水典型污染物超滤膜污染行为的分子动力学模拟研究

以6-羧基葡萄糖、半胱氨酸和水杨酸分别代表二级出水的3种典型污染物多糖(SA)、蛋白质(BSA)和腐殖酸(HA)的分子组成,通过分子动力学(MD)技术,模拟了二级出水典型污染物,与醋酸纤维素(CA)、聚醚砜(PES)、聚偏氟乙烯(PVDF)等3种主流商业膜材料之间的结合能(ΔE),作为对具有特征污染物性质的二级出水,在不同的膜材料上产生膜污染行为的判断依据.MD数据显示:PVDF结构单元与6-羧基葡萄糖和水杨酸分子间的ΔE高于半胱氨酸,而PES结构单元与半胱氨酸分子间的ΔE值高于其它分子间的组合.3种污染物在超滤膜上的过滤通量衰减及膜污染指数,证实了MD对PVDF膜上SA和HA污染性更高,而BSA在PES膜上更易产生膜污染的预测结论;分别对6-羧基葡萄糖、水杨酸、半胱氨酸与3种聚合物结构单元间的ΔE值,与SA、HA、BSA的超滤操作初始通量衰减率间进行了线性拟合,得到的拟合系数分别为0.9981、0.9555、0.7186,说明半胱氨酸作为蛋白质类代表物进行分子模拟尚有一定的不足.     

热解底泥对两种氟喹诺酮类抗生素和双酚A的吸附

将滇池断桥底泥在不同炭化温度(200℃—500℃)下制成热解底泥,用元素分析仪表征其元素组成.以诺氟沙星(NOR)、氧氟沙星(OFL)和双酚A(BPA)为代表化合物,研究人工合成有机污染物在热解底泥上的吸附行为,从而深入了解热解底泥的吸附特性以及其施用对有机污染物的环境行为和风险的影响.结果表明,热解底泥随炭化温度的增加,芳香性升高,极性降低,阳离子交换量降低,对NOR、OFL和BPA的吸附非线性增强.热解底泥的吸附性能比原始底泥更强,随炭化温度的升高,对NOR的吸附依次减弱,对OFL的吸附变化不大,对BPA的吸附依次增强,这与热解底泥极性和阳离子交换量,以及吸附质的极性相关.在原始底泥和热解底泥上,NOR和OFL的吸附均明显强于BPA,这主要因为NOR和OFL与底泥中无机矿物组分可通过阳离子交换作用和阳离子桥接作用使其吸附强于BPA,并且NOR和OFL相比于BPA官能团多且复杂.     

高分子多孔小球GDX系列对水中微量有机物富集作用的研究——Ⅲ.GDX—203和GDX—301的吸附等温线测定

吸附等温线的测定对于研究GDX系列的吸附规律和探讨吸附机理具有重要的意义,等温线的形状可以反映出吸附剂的表面性质,孔分布性质以及吸附质与吸附剂相互作用的性质。 本文在以前工作的基础上采用间歇法和可见及紫外分光光度法测定了非极性GDX—203和弱极性GDX—301对苯胺、邻甲酚、苯甲酸、邻苯二甲酸二甲酯和亚甲基兰的吸附等温线。对亚甲基兰和邻苯二甲酸二甲酯的吸附在0—35ppm浓度范围内符合Freundlich等温方程式。苯胺、邻甲酚和苯甲酸的吸附等温线出现突跃和平台。两种GDX树酯的吸附等温线形状相似,吸附容量随溶液起始浓度的增加而增加,由于GDX微球小孔孔壁引力场的迭加,当平衡浓度达到一定限度时发生毛细孔内“凝聚”现象,吸附量急剧增加,吸附等温线出现突跃,实现结果表明GDX—203和GDX—301的吸附机理是一致的,树脂表面与被吸附的溶质分子之间的作用力主要是范德华力,属于物理吸附。     

微塑料与有机污染物的相互作用研究进展

微塑料(粒径小于5 mm的塑料)作为海洋中一种新型的污染物正受到越来越多的关注。微塑料在全球多个海域均有检出,根据其来源分为原生微塑料和次生微塑料。原生微塑料由人工直接制造所得,常见于日常生活用品中;次生微塑料由大块塑料制品长期风化、磨损和光解形成。塑料自身含有多种有机添加剂,不断向环境中释放,污染海洋环境;微塑料表面还可吸附有机污染物,此吸附作用受两者的物理化学性质和环境条件影响,吸附污染物后的微塑料生物毒性增强。另外,聚合物复合光催化材料可加快有机污染物如染料的光降解反应速率,因而微塑料可能会促进有机污染物的光解。针对目前微塑料对有机物光降解的贡献、机理鲜见研究的问题,未来应加强以下3方面的研究:(1)微塑料对不同有机污染物光降解是否存在影响?(2)微塑料类型、尺寸以及反应条件对有机污染物光降解如何影响?(3)微塑料对有机污染物光降解影响的内在机制是什么?     

环丙沙星在亚高山草甸不同深度土壤上的吸附及其影响因素

兽用抗菌药物环丙沙星(CIP,ciprofloxacin)的大量使用引发了人们的广泛关注.文章研究了CIP在亚高山草甸土剖面土壤上的吸附动力学、吸附热力学和pH、有机质含量、阳离子交换量等因素对吸附的影响,以揭示CIP在亚高山草甸土上的吸附机制,为CIP的生态风险评价提供一定的依据.结果表明,CIP在亚高山草甸土上的吸附过程符合准二级动力学模型,并分为快吸附和慢吸附阶段,快吸附为0—6 h,慢吸附为6—48 h.CIP在供试土壤中的吸附等温线均能被Freundlich方程及线性方程很好的拟合,且|ΔH^θ|小于40 kJ·mol^-1,说明其吸附过程以物理吸附为主.其吸附等温线符合L-型,表明在CIP浓度较低时,草甸土与CIP分子间作用力较强,而浓度增大至一定程度时,溶剂分子与CIP分子间作用力占主导地位,吸附减弱.剖面土壤上CIP的吸附量随温度升高和土壤深度增加下降,这与有机质含量、阳离子交换量、黏粒含量以及pH有关.实验表明,在pH=5时,其吸附量最高.pH值在3—5时,吸附量随pH升高而升高,而在pH>5时,吸附量随pH升高而降低.表明阳离子交换为其吸附机制之一.     

典型土壤持久性有机污染物空间分布特征及环境行为研究进展

持久性有机污染物(POPs)由于具有致癌性、致畸性和致突变效应的"三致性",近年来已经越来越受到人们的关注.本文综合分析了有机氯农药(OCPs)、多氯联苯(PCBs)、二英类(PCDD/Fs)、多环芳烃(PAHs)及多溴联苯醚(PBDEs)等几种典型土壤持久性有机污染物的空间分布特征.同时,对土壤POPs的挥发作用、吸附/解吸、迁移、生物降解、化学降解等环境行为进行了深入分析,并指出了这些环境行为的影响因素,包括POPs的物质属性、土壤理化性质及周围环境等共性影响因素及其它因素.此外,针对国内外研究现状中存在的问题,提出了相关建议,指出控制土壤POPs污染的根本手段在于管理措施的完善.     

生物炭对极性与非极性有机污染物的吸附机理

以玉米秸秆为原料,分别在200、400、600、700℃下制备了不同性质的生物炭,对其性质进行了表征.研究了极性物质普萘洛尔和非极性物质萘在生物炭上的吸附,并对不同物质的吸附机理进行了探讨.结果表明,随裂解温度的升高,生物炭芳香性增强,极性降低,比表面积增大.普萘洛尔和萘的吸附都随生物炭裂解温度的升高而增大,普萘洛尔的lgKoc由3.10(低平衡浓度3 mg·L~(-1))和2.88(高浓度10 mg·L~(-1))增加到3.89和3.67;萘的lgKoc由2.74(低平衡浓度3 mg·L~(-1))和2.65(高浓度15 mg·L~(-1))增加到4.59和4.05.疏水分配作用对萘在低温生物炭上的吸附起主要作用,而随裂解温度升高,表面吸附和孔填充所占贡献逐渐增强.除了以上机理,普萘洛尔还可通过静电吸引进行吸附,而且在BC200上,由于大量极性官能团的作用,有利于静电吸附,其对普萘洛尔的吸附显著大于对萘的吸附;而且存在分子的倾斜吸附或多分子层吸附,单位表面积的吸附量远远大于单分子层吸附预测值.而在高温生物炭上,由于萘的分子较小而憎水性较高有利于孔填充作用,其对萘的吸附大于对普萘洛尔的吸附.     

腐殖酸负载对萘和1-萘酚在生物炭上吸附动力学的影响

进入环境的生物炭对有机污染物的吸附过程受到普遍共存的溶解性有机质的影响.本研究将两种腐殖酸组分负载在以玉米秸秆为原料、不同炭化温度下(200、400、600℃)制得的生物炭上,考察极性和非极性有机污染物萘和1-萘酚在原始和腐殖酸负载生物炭上的吸附动力学,分别应用拟一级、拟二级和双室一级3种动力学模型对实验数据进行拟合.结果表明,拟二级和双室一级动力学模型均能较好地描述动力学吸附过程.腐殖酸负载对生物炭上萘和1-萘酚的吸附动力学有显著影响,使得平衡吸附量(Q_e)下降,而表观吸附速率提高.致密的芳香碳组分和纳米级孔隙主要对萘和1-萘酚在生物炭上的慢吸附单元起作用,腐殖酸负载降低了生物炭的芳香化程度和孔隙度,慢吸附对总吸附的贡献(f_(slow))降低.生物炭内部有机碳的致密性降低,使得萘和1-萘酚分子容易扩散进入生物炭颗粒内部,加之表面积和孔隙度减少,缩短吸附平衡时间,两种化合物的慢吸附速率常数(k_(slow))均提高.负载腐殖酸后,两种化合物的快吸附速率常数(k_(fast))的变化却不同.腐殖酸负载向生物炭表面引入含氧极性官能团,阻碍萘分子向表面疏水吸附位点扩散,使得萘的k_(fast)下降;而由于1-萘酚是极性有机物,除了疏水作用,其结构中的—OH能通过氢键与生物炭表面相互作用,其k_(fast)反而升高.     

含特殊官能团有机物分配系数预测的多参数线性自由能关系(PP-LFERs)研究

利用多参数线性自由能关系(PP-LFERs)模型预测有机物的有机碳-水分配系数(Koc)是一种高效经济的估算方法.基于广泛收集的文献中165种(18类)化合物的lg Koc和分子结构参数(E、S、A、B、V)值,通过多元线性回归方法,用建模组132种化合物构建了两种预测多种类有机物lg Koc的PP-LFERs模型:EV模型和简化的V模型.它们的复相关系数分别为0.92和0.87,标准误差分别为0.37和0.49.用验证组33种化合物对模型进行了验证的结果表明,两种模型均具有较好的预测性和稳健性.在数据集中包括有8种典型的高氟和硅氧烷类化合物,对于硅氧烷类化合物,EV模型和V模型的实测值和预测值的均方根误差分别为0.38和0.16;对于高氟类化合物,两模型的均方根误差分别为0.66和0.75,说明了模型对这两类化合物预测的准确性.最后,从分子间作用力角度分析了有机物的吸附机理,得出空穴作用和色散作用是非极性化合物吸附的主要动力,而在极性化合物中,空穴作用和氢键作用最为显著.     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity

Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km² around Bonga and 3000 km² in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques     

What Every Conservation Biologist Should Know about Economic Theory

Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.     

Globalization of the Cashmere Market and the Decline of Large Mammals in Central Asia

As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland where cashmere‐producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis. In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3‐fold increase in local profits for herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica).That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4‐fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur)in trans‐Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China's Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard(Panthera uncia), khulan(Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic‐level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere. Globalización del Mercado de Cachemira y la Declinación de Mamíferos Mayores en Asia Central     

The lichen-rich coastal heath vegetation on the isle of Anholt, Denmark — conservation and management

The high conservational value of the lichen-rich vegetation and landscape of the marine foreland Ørkenen on the isle of Anholt is treated from a Danish as well as a European perspective. The sensitivity of the lichen-rich vegetation to physical disturbance is emphasized. The impact of invasive species such asPinus mugo as well as the effect of atmospheric deposition of nutrients on the heaths at Anholt is described. Considerations related to the development of a management plan for Ørkenen are presented.     

Behavior and ecology of Old World Luperini beetles of the genusAulacophora (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Summary The attraction of Old World leaf beetles in the genusAulacophora to kairomones and parakairomones which are effective lures for New WorldDiabrotica andAcalymma were investigated. Beetles captured on sticky traps baited with single and multicomponent lures were no different from the control traps for two species ofAulacophora. Yellow colored traps and squash blossoms are attractive toAulacophora beetles which detect sub-microgram quantities of cucurbitacins on silica gel. Leaf feeding behavior and flight activity data are correlated with varietal preference of threeAulacophora species. The common response byDiabrotica andAulacophora to cucurbitacins reinforces the two groups' coevolutionary association with the Cucurbitaceae. The apparent lack of a common response toCucurbita blossom volatiles suggests recent evolutionary pathways are substantially different for these two groups of beetles.     

Use of stochastic patch occupancy models in the California red-legged frog for Bayesian inference regarding past events and future persistence

Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.