长江嘉陵江重庆段多环芳烃的分布特征和来源辨析

2014年7月,采集长江嘉陵江重庆段9个断面的地表水和沉积物样品,检测15种多环芳烃(PAHs)含量.结果表明,地表水的∑PAHs浓度范围为65.6—1249 ng·L~(-1),沉积物中∑PAHs浓度范围为68.6—4226 ng·g~(-1),与其历史浓度水平相当;聚类分析表明,化工园区对其下游PAHs分布有一定影响,园区下游地表水和沉积物∑PAHs浓度最高.两江汇流前,地表水4环PAHs占总量的43.63%—61.68%;两江汇流后,2环比例增加,占总量的29.01%—68.72%;沉积物4环PAHs占总量的26.62%—48.74%.在顺流方向,地表水中河左∑PAHs浓度高于河中和河右,沉积物中∑PAHs浓度横向无明显差别,其中化工园区下游可能是受左岸工业影响,地表水中河左∑PAHs浓度是河中、河右的12倍和7倍,沉积物中河左∑PAHs浓度是河右的7倍.环数组成、分子比值和主成分分析表明研究区域地表水PAHs来源主要为木材、煤燃烧源,同时还包括石油燃烧和石油泄漏,沉积物则主要为木材、煤高温燃烧源.     

新乡市家庭室内灰尘中多环芳烃的污染及人体暴露特征

在新乡市牧野区22个中学生家庭室内采集灰尘,系统探讨了室内灰尘中多环芳烃(Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons,PAHs)的浓度、污染来源、人体暴露特征及健康风险.结果表明,新乡市中学生家庭室内灰尘中美国EPA优先检测的15种PAHs的检出率为100%,15种PAHs总量范围为203—9500 ng·g~(-1),平均值为2100 ng·g~(-1).新乡市中学生家庭室内灰尘中PAHs主要由4环组分构成,占总量的38.1%.多特征比值法表明,草、木材和煤的不完全燃烧是新乡市中学生家庭室内灰尘中PAHs的主要来源.增量终生致癌风险(Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk,ILCRs)评价结果表明,3种暴露途径的增量终生致癌风险值为皮肤接触手口摄入呼吸吸入,说明室内灰尘中PAHs主要的暴露途径为皮肤接触.6个采样点的CR值属于可以接受的安全范围,其余采样点均存在潜在健康风险,但均未达到较大的潜在健康风险,仍需引起人们足够的重视.     

新疆阿勒泰地区土壤中多环芳烃含量水平及来源解析

为了研究新疆阿勒泰地区土壤多环芳烃(PAHs)污染状况,于2018年10月对阿勒泰地区表层土壤进行采样,共采集样品14个,采用气相色谱-质谱仪(GC-MS 7890A-5975MSD Agilent)测定土壤样品中16种优控PAHs含量,并对其组成、分布及来源情况进行解析。结果表明,阿勒泰地区表层土壤中∑_(16)PAHs含量介于3.48～103.81 ng·g~(-1)之间,平均含量为32.24 ng·g~(-1),PAHs组成以3、4环为主,其中,7种致癌PAHs总含量介于0.32～50.95 ng·g~(-1)之间,平均含量为11.20 ng·g~(-1)。研究区域土壤PAHs污染水平较低,且PAHs污染水平与海拔高度无显著相关性(r=-0.471,P=0.668)。同分异构体比值法分析结果表明阿勒泰地区土壤PAHs主要来源于化石燃料及生物质燃烧,机动车尾气排放对PAHs贡献较大。主成分分析-多元线性回归解析结果表明,阿勒泰地区土壤PAHs主要受交通源(62.8%)、焦炉和燃煤源(28.2%)以及生物质燃烧源(9.0%)3个污染源影响,与新疆2012年排放贡献源相比,交通源以及焦炉和燃煤源排放占比呈上升趋势。     

污灌区农田土壤多环芳烃污染及风险评价

污灌区农田土壤可能受到多环芳烃(PAHs)的严重污染.本文以山西省黎城污灌区为研究对象,对其中农田土壤中16种优控PAHs的含量水平、组成特征以及风险进行分析和评价.结果表明,该污灌区农田土壤中PAHs总含量范围为16.03—1320.95 ng·g~(-1),平均值为226.74 ng·g~(-1).土壤中PAHs以4—6环的PAHs为主,占总量的61%.风险评价结果显示该区域有40%的样品受到污染,其中重度、中度和轻微污染所占比例分别为2.9%、2.9%和34.3%.健康风险评价结果显示,该区域已具有潜在的致癌风险.从污染评价结果以及与山西省内其它区域农田土壤多环芳烃含量比较来看,研究区土壤已经受到PAHs不同程度的污染.在未来环境管理和控制过程中应采取有效措施,以保护人体健康和生态环境安全.     

北京市冬季道路沉积物中多环芳烃的污染特征和源解析

在北京城区四环以内采集了33个冬季道路沉积物样品,分析其中多环芳烃(PAHs)的含量、分布特征、来源和生态风险.结果表明,16种多环芳烃(PAHs)∑16PAHs的浓度范围为931.0—2668.7 ng·g~(-1)干重,平均浓度为1602.4 ng·g~(-1)干重,污染物的组成以4环和3环PAHs为主.通过LMW/HMW(低分子量与高分子量PAHs的比值)法、特征比值法和主成分分析法得出,道路沉积物中PAHs主要来自于煤、化石燃料的燃烧以及交通尾气的排放.由TEQBa P分析结果可知,33个采样点PAHs的∑16TEQBa P范围为58.2—324.4 ng·g-1干重,平均值为139.3 ng·g~(-1)干重;所有采样点的∑10TEQBa P范围为33.1—266.8 ng·g~(-1)干重,平均值为95.0 ng·g-1干重,均超过荷兰土壤的目标参考值,说明北京市冬季道路沉积物中PAHs存在潜在的生态风险;其中7种致癌性PAHs(Ba A、Chr、Bb F、Bk F、Ba P、IPY和DBA)的TEQBa P占∑16TEQBa P的96.1%—99.3%,平均值为98.5%,是∑16TEQBa P的主要贡献者,并且Ba P的贡献率最大.     

云南省树皮样品中多环芳烃和有机氯农药的浓度分布及来源解析

2012年8月于云南省采集了16个树皮样品,分析了其中多环芳烃和有机氯农药(包括六六六和滴滴涕)的浓度水平和分布特征.树皮中∑_(16)PAH的浓度范围为317—1194 ng·g~(-1),平均值为639 ng·g~~(-1);研究区域树皮中∑_4HCH和∑_6DDT的浓度分别为为0.10—3.86 ng·g~(-1)干重(平均值为1.10 ng·g~(-1)干重)和0.78—7.29 ng·g~(-1)干重(平均值为3.32 ng·g~(-1)干重),PAHs浓度是藏东南林芝地区的2—3倍,而有机氯农药的浓度低于藏东南林芝地区.树皮中脂肪可影响研究区域持久性有机污染物(Persistent organic pollutants,POPs)的分布,但影响不显著.同时HCHs、DDTs和2环及3环PAHs的浓度随海拔的升高而增加,呈典型的高山冷捕获效应;4环、5环和6环PAHs的浓度随着海拔的升高而降低,这可能是云南本地污染源影响所致.较低质量的PAHs(2—3环)是研究区域PAHs的重要组成部分,平均占总浓度的77%以上,说明研究区域受到污染物大气远距离传输的重要影响.PAHs特征单体比值表明,草、木材等生物质和煤炭燃料等的低温燃烧是研究区域PAHs的主要来源,同时较低的α/γ-HCH和较高的o,p'-DDT/p,p'-DDT比率表明,林丹和三氯杀螨醇的使用对研究区域树皮中有机氯农药的污染有一定的贡献.根据反向气团轨迹模型及PAHs和OCPs的浓度分布,推断研究区域的OCPs主要受印度季风和西风环流的影响,而PAHs是大气远距离传输源和云南本地污染源共同作用的结果.     

长江安庆段及毗邻湖泊沉积物中多环芳烃分布及风险评价

采集长江安庆段及其沿江湖泊群表层沉积物样品共30个,检测16种多环芳烃(Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons,PAHs)含量.结果表明,长江安庆段(4个断面)的∑PAHs浓度范围为36.0—221.6 ng·g~(-1)(干重,下同),平均浓度为137.1#76.5 ng·g~(-1);安庆沿江湖泊群(23个采样点)的浓度范围则为45.5—3608.8 ng·g~(-1),平均浓度为941.5±868.5 ng·g~(-1).研究区域内∑PAHs主要以高环(4—6环,HMW)为主,表明主要受交通运输、船舶油类以及化工厂等高温燃烧排放影响.同分异构体分析进一步表明,PAHs主要来源于燃烧排放,不同湖泊存在不同的潜在来源,嬉子湖受到石油排放源、煤木柴燃烧和石油及其精炼产品的燃烧等多重来源影响,而菜子湖中则主要受木材、煤等燃烧源影响,长江安庆段存在石油直接排放源及其燃烧源共同影响.石门湖和白荡湖则以石油及其精炼产品燃烧源为主.生态风险评价表明,长江安庆段及沿江湖泊群表层沉积物中PAHs处于较低的生态风险状态.     

太原市公园土壤中多环芳烃污染特征

本研究于2016年采集太原市公园14个表层土壤样品,应用气相色谱质谱联用仪(GCMS)分析了样品中16种优先控制多环芳烃(PAHs)含量,并探讨了PAHs的来源和健康风险.结果表明,样品中∑16PAHs平均浓度为1301.99 ng·g~(-1)(范围为294.36—2540.64 ng·g-1),与国内其他城市相比属于较高污染水平.土壤中PAHs以4环为主,其次为5环、3环、6环、2环.PAHs空间分布受污染排放源和暴露时间的影响存在较大差异.源解析结果表明,土壤中PAHs主要来自煤和机动车排放、焦化、生物质燃烧,3种来源贡献率分别为64.58%、18.75%、16.67%.通过风险评价发现所有土壤中PAHs均超过相应的标准,存在相当高的潜在风险,对公众健康存在影响,应当引起高度重视.     

杭埠-丰乐河表层沉积物中多环芳烃的污染特征、来源分析及生态风险评价

对杭埠-丰乐河12个采样点的表层沉积物中16种优控多环芳烃(PAHs)的含量进行了测定.结果表明:16种PAHs均被普遍检出,总含量(∑PAHs)范围为71.3±15—3372±402 ng·g~(-1)干重(dw),平均值为938 ng·g~(-1)(dw),与国内主要河流相比其浓度处于中等水平.底泥中多环芳烃组成以4环和5环为主,共占∑PAHs的81%,其中,二苯并[a.h]蒽(DBA)浓度最高,平均浓度为254 ng·g~(-1).底泥总有机碳(TOC)与∑PAHs之间有良好线性关系.利用特征比值法和主成分分析探讨了PAHs的可能来源,结果显示,杭埠-丰乐河底泥中PAHs主要来自于流域周边居民生物质、煤燃烧及汽车燃油污染.利用沉积物质量基准法和苯并[a]芘毒性当量(TEQBa P)法分别评价了杭埠-丰乐河沉积物PAHs的生态风险和致癌风险,发现部分采样点某些多环芳烃含量超过了效应区间低值(ERL),具有潜在的生态风险;沉积物中TEQBa P均值高达343 ng·g~(-1),具有相当高的致癌风险.     

典型城乡交错区土壤中多环芳烃污染及健康风险评价

以典型城镇化进程中武汉郊区-鄂州城市-鄂州郊区为研究对象,探讨城乡交错区多环芳烃(PAHs)污染水平和来源,并进行健康风险评价.研究区土壤中PAHs广泛存在,16种PAHs检出率达100%.土壤中∑16PAHs含量为16.60—1854.21 ng·g~(-1),均值为411.67 ng·g~(-1);7种致癌单体多环芳烃Σ7PAHs含量为4.17—1169.98 ng·g~(-1),均值为251.93 ng·g~(-1).不同点位PAHs污染水平差异较大,其中在居民密集区、城市建设及交通繁忙区域尤为显著,说明城乡交错区人为社会和经济活动在一定程度上对土壤中PAHs污染产生较大影响.采用组分特征比值和主成分分析污染来源,结果显示该地区土壤中PAHs主要源于煤燃烧和机动车尾气排放以及秸秆等生物质低温燃烧排放,同时存在石油源污染.在城市化建设发展中,城乡交错区工业、农业、交通及生活等各种区域相互交错重叠,人为活动异常活跃,产生大量PAHs输入源,逐渐成为影响生活和环境的重要影响因素之一.研究区对于成人和儿童通过呼吸暴露于土壤PAHs几乎不存在风险;而通过皮肤接触及经口摄入途径暴露于土壤PAHs存在一定潜在风险.此外,儿童通过3种途径暴露致癌风险低于成人;成人和儿童通过3种途径暴露的致癌风险大小顺序均为经口摄入皮肤接触呼吸.     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

What Every Conservation Biologist Should Know about Economic Theory

Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.     

Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity

Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km² around Bonga and 3000 km² in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques     

Globalization of the Cashmere Market and the Decline of Large Mammals in Central Asia

As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland where cashmere‐producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis. In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3‐fold increase in local profits for herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica).That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4‐fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur)in trans‐Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China's Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard(Panthera uncia), khulan(Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic‐level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere. Globalización del Mercado de Cachemira y la Declinación de Mamíferos Mayores en Asia Central     

The lichen-rich coastal heath vegetation on the isle of Anholt, Denmark — conservation and management

The high conservational value of the lichen-rich vegetation and landscape of the marine foreland Ørkenen on the isle of Anholt is treated from a Danish as well as a European perspective. The sensitivity of the lichen-rich vegetation to physical disturbance is emphasized. The impact of invasive species such asPinus mugo as well as the effect of atmospheric deposition of nutrients on the heaths at Anholt is described. Considerations related to the development of a management plan for Ørkenen are presented.     

Behavior and ecology of Old World Luperini beetles of the genusAulacophora (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Summary The attraction of Old World leaf beetles in the genusAulacophora to kairomones and parakairomones which are effective lures for New WorldDiabrotica andAcalymma were investigated. Beetles captured on sticky traps baited with single and multicomponent lures were no different from the control traps for two species ofAulacophora. Yellow colored traps and squash blossoms are attractive toAulacophora beetles which detect sub-microgram quantities of cucurbitacins on silica gel. Leaf feeding behavior and flight activity data are correlated with varietal preference of threeAulacophora species. The common response byDiabrotica andAulacophora to cucurbitacins reinforces the two groups' coevolutionary association with the Cucurbitaceae. The apparent lack of a common response toCucurbita blossom volatiles suggests recent evolutionary pathways are substantially different for these two groups of beetles.     

Use of stochastic patch occupancy models in the California red-legged frog for Bayesian inference regarding past events and future persistence

Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.