Potential contribution of the forestry sector in Bangladesh to carbon sequestration

The Kyoto Protocol provides for the involvement of developing countries in an atmospheric greenhouse gas reduction regime under its Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Carbon credits are gained from reforestation and afforestation activities in developing countries. Bangladesh, a densely populated tropical country in South Asia, has a huge degraded forestland which can be reforested by CDM projects. To realize the potential of the forestry sector in developing countries for full-scale emission mitigation, the carbon sequestration potential of different species in different types of plantations should be integrated with the carbon trading system under the CDM of the Kyoto Protocol. This paper discusses the prospects and problems of carbon trading in Bangladesh, in relation to the CDM, in the context of global warming and the potential associated consequences. The paper analyzes the effects of reforestation projects on carbon sequestration in Bangladesh, in general, and in the hilly Chittagong region, in particular, and concludes by demonstrating the carbon trading opportunities. Results showed that tree tissue in the forests of Bangladesh stored 92tons of carbon per hectare (tC/ha), on average. The results also revealed a gross stock of 190tC/ha in the plantations of 13 tree species, ranging in age from 6 to 23 years. The paper confirms the huge atmospheric CO(2) offset by the forests if the degraded forestlands are reforested by CDM projects, indicating the potential of Bangladesh to participate in carbon trading for both its economic and environmental benefit. Within the forestry sector itself, some constraints are identified; nevertheless, the results of the study can expedite policy decisions regarding Bangladesh's participation in carbon trading through the CDM.     

Towards global climate change mitigation: assessment of an afforestation option for Nigeria

This paper assesses the potential of an intensive afforestation program as a measure of reducing the atmospheric concentration of carbon in Nigeria. The results presented are based on the recently completed Nigerian Country Studies Program on Climate Change Mitigation. A comprehensive mitigation analysis process (COMAP) model was employed to carry out detailed cost/benefit evaluation of the mitigation option. The end-use based scenario adopted was considered the most appropriate strategy to sustainably implement the mitigation option in Nigeria.The analyses showed that the country could significantly reduce net carbon emission while at the same time meet all her essential domestic wood needs, if approximately 7.5×10⁶ ha of wasteland could be committed to an afforestation program over the 40 year period of projection. The initial cost of establishing such forest plantations, taking cognisance of the opportunity cost of land averaged at about US$500/ha, or in carbon terms, a unit cost of about $13 per tonne of carbon. In terms of carbon flow, if all the end-product based plantations considered (i.e. fuelwood, poles, pulpwood, sawlogs and veneer) were fully established and maintained, it was estimated that by the year 2030, the total carbon stored in the afforested land would be about 638.0×10⁶ t of carbon with an annual incremental rate of 16.0×10⁶ t of carbon. Other economic indicators (i.e. net present value of benefits, present value of costs and benefit for reduced atmospheric carbon) when evaluated showed that the afforestation option could be economically viable even when the investment capital was discounted at rates ranging from 9 to 33 percent for different wood products. It should be noted, however that implementation of such a program would require huge sums of money and a high degree of commitment on the part of Federal, State and Local governments if the associated financial, social and environmental benefits were to be derived.     

Land use change effects on forest carbon cycling throughout the southern United States

We modeled the effects of afforestation and deforestation on carbon cycling in forest floor and soil from 1900 to 2050 throughout 13 states in the southern United States. The model uses historical data on gross (two-way) transitions between forest, pasture, plowed agriculture, and urban lands along with equations describing changes in carbon over many decades for each type of land use change. Use of gross rather than net land use transition data is important because afforestation causes a gradual gain in carbon stocks for many decades, while deforestation causes a much more rapid loss in carbon stocks. In the South-Central region (Texas to Kentucky) land use changes caused a net emission of carbon before the 1980s, followed by a net sequestration of carbon subsequently. In the Southeast region (Florida to Virginia), there was net emission of carbon until the 1940s, again followed by net sequestration of carbon. These results could improve greenhouse gas inventories produced to meet reporting requirements under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Specifically, from 1990 to 2004 for the entire 13-state study area, afforestation caused sequestration of 88 Tg C, and deforestation caused emission of 49 Tg C. However, the net effect of land use change on carbon stocks in soil and forest floor from 1990 to 2004 was about sixfold smaller than the net change in carbon stocks in trees on all forestland. Thus land use change effects and forest carbon cycling during this period are dominated by changes in tree carbon stocks.     

Impacts of urban forests on offsetting carbon emissions from industrial energy use in Hangzhou,China

This study quantified carbon storage and sequestration by urban forests and carbon emissions from energy consumption by several industrial sources in Hangzhou, China. Carbon (C) storage and sequestration were quantified using urban forest inventory data and by applying volume-derived biomass equations and other models relating net primary productivity (NPP) and mean annual biomass increments. Industrial energy use C emissions were estimated by accounting for fossil fuel use and assigning C emission factors. Total C storage by Hangzhou's urban forests was estimated at 11.74 Tg C, and C storage per hectare was 30.25 t C. Carbon sequestration by urban forests was 1,328, 166.55 t C/year, and C sequestration per ha was 1.66 t C/ha/year. Carbon emissions from industrial energy use in Hangzhou were 7 Tg C/year. Urban forests, through sequestration, annually offset 18.57% of the amount of carbon emitted by industrial enterprises, and store an amount of C equivalent to 1.75 times the amount of annual C emitted by industrial energy uses within the city. Management practices for improving Hangzhou's urban forests function of offsetting C emissions from energy consumption are explored. These results can be used to evaluate the urban forests' role in reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide.     

Evaluating the Role of Plantations as Carbon Sinks: An Example of an Integrative Approach from the Humid Tropics

/ Despite their fast growth, tropical plantations are a small sink of atmospheric carbon because they occupy only a small area in relation to other land uses worldwide. Proper design and management of plantations can increase biomass accumulation rates, making them more effective C sinks. However, fast-growing plantations can extract large amounts of nutrients from the soil, and site fertility declines may limit sustained plantation forestry after a few rotations. We measured aboveground biomass accumulation, carbon sequestration, and soil chemistry in three young plantations of 12 indigenous tree species in pure and mixed designs in the humid lowlands of Costa Rica. Annual biomass increments for the three mixed plantations ranged from 10-13 Mg/ha. The mixtures of four species gave higher biomass per hectare than that obtained by the sum of one fourth hectare of each species in pure plots. At this early age of the plantations, estimated annual C sequestration values were comparable to other reports from young plantations of exotic species commonly grown in the tropics. Four years after planting, decreases in soil nutrients were apparent in pure plots of some of the fastest growing species, while beneficial effects on soils were noted under other species. The mixed plots showed intermediate values for the nutrients examined and, sometimes, improved soil conditions. A mixture of fast and slower growing species yields products at different times, with the slower growing species constituting a longer term sink for fixed carbon. Examination of the role of tropical plantations as C sinks necessitates integrative approaches that consider rates of C sequestration, potential deleterious effects on ecosystem nutrients, and economic, social, and environmental constraints.KEY WORDS: Native trees; Aboveground biomass; Stem increments; Rotation length; Soil nutrients; Economics     

Evaluating the Suitability of Management Strategies of Pure Norway Spruce Forests in the Black Forest Area of Southwest Germany for Adaptation to or Mitigation of Climate Change

The study deals with the problem of evaluating management strategies for pure stands of Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst) to balance adaptation to and mitigation of climate change, taking into account multiple objectives of a forest owner. A simulation and optimization approach was used to evaluate the management of a 1000 ha model Age-Class forest, representing the age-class distribution of an area of 66,000 ha of pure Norway spruce forests in the Black Forest region of Southwest Germany. Eight silvicultural scenarios comprising five forest conversion schemes which were interpreted as “adaptation” strategies which aims at increasing the proportion of Beech, that is expected to better cope with climate change than the existing Norway spruce, and three conventional strategies including a “Do-nothing” alternative classified as “mitigation”, trying to keep rather higher levels of growing stock of spruce, were simulated using the empirical growth simulator BWINPro-S. A linear programming approach was adapted to simultaneously maximize the net present values of carbon sequestration and timber production subject to the two constraints of wood even flow and partial protection of the oldest (nature protection). The optimized plan, with the global utility of 11,687 €/ha in forty years, allocated a combination of silvicultural scenarios to the entire forest area. Overall, strategies classified as “mitigation” were favored, while strategies falling into the “adaptation”-category were limited to the youngest age-classes in the optimal solution. Carbon sequestration of the “Do-nothing” alternative was between 1.72 and 1.85 million tons higher than the other alternatives for the entire forest area while the differences between the adaptation and mitigation approaches were approximately 133,000 tons. Sensitivity analysis showed that a carbon price of 21 €/t is the threshold at which carbon sequestration is promoted, while an interest rate of above 2% would decrease the amount of carbon.     

Potential Impact of Afforestation on Water Yield in the Subalpine Region of Southwestern China1

Abstract: To combat its growing ecological problems, China has implemented a large‐scale Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP). Under the umbrella of this program, the Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) was established in 1999 to return cultivated land with slopes of 25° or more to perennial vegetation. However, the regional impacts on water resource management that are incurred by afforestation have not been carefully evaluated, especially in the subalpine region of southwestern China. The purpose of the present study was to provide reference values for the SLCP by evaluating the potential impact of afforestation on water yield under different climatic regimes. Accordingly, evapotranspiration (ET) in cropland (CL), shrubland, and general forest was calculated using a modification of Thornthwaite’s method, and in coniferous forest, broad‐leaved forest (BF), and mixed coniferous and broad‐leaved forest (MF) using the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) model. The results of both approaches showed that afforestation reduces water yield by 9.6‐24.3% depending on the types of conversion and climatic conditions. Water‐yield reduction is greatest (>143.4 mm, or 24.3%) when CL is converted to BF in dry climate conditions. Compared with the other forest types studied, coniferous plantations prevented water‐yield reduction by as much as 9.6% because of their relatively low levels of ET. It is expected that implementation of the SLCP, together with continuing climate change, will further pressure regional water resources. Thus, the effectiveness of afforestation must be evaluated in a broader context while taking into account its positive ecological aspects, such as soil‐erosion control, the preservation of biodiversity, and the significant carbon sequestration provided by forests.     

Carbon management and biodiversity

International efforts to mitigate human-caused changes in the Earth's climate are considering a system of incentives (debits and credits) that would encourage specific changes in land use that can help to reduce the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. The two primary land-based activities that would help to minimize atmospheric carbon dioxide are carbon storage in the terrestrial biosphere and the efficient substitution of biomass fuels and bio-based products for fossil fuels and energy-intensive products. These two activities have very different land requirements and different implications for the preservation of biodiversity and the maintenance of other ecosystem services. Carbon sequestration in living forests can be pursued on lands with low productivity, i.e. on lands that are least suitable for agriculture or intensive forestry, and are compatible with the preservation of biodiversity over large areas. In contrast, intensive harvest-and-use systems for biomass fuels and products generally need more productive land to be economically viable. Intensive harvest-and-use systems may compete with agriculture or they may shift intensive land uses onto the less productive lands that currently harbor most of the Earth's biodiversity. Win-win solutions for carbon dioxide control and biodiversity are possible, but careful evaluation and planning are needed to avoid practices that reduce biodiversity with little net decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Planning is more complex on a politically subdivided Earth where issues of local interest, national sovereignty, and equity come into play.     

Soil organic carbon sequestration in cotton production systems of the southeastern United States: a review

Past agricultural management practices have contributed to the loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) and emission of greenhouse gases (e.g., carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide). Fortunately, however, conservation-oriented agricultural management systems can be, and have been, developed to sequester SOC, improve soil quality, and increase crop productivity. Our objectives were to (i) review literature related to SOC sequestration in cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) production systems, (ii) recommend best management practices to sequester SOC, and (iii) outline the current political scenario and future probabilities for cotton producers to benefit from SOC sequestration. From a review of 20 studies in the region, SOC increased with no tillage compared with conventional tillage by 0.48 +/- 0.56 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) (H(0): no change, p < 0.001). More diverse rotations of cotton with high-residue-producing crops such as corn (Zea mays L.) and small grains would sequester greater quantities of SOC than continuous cotton. No-tillage cropping with a cover crop sequestered 0.67 +/- 0.63 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1), while that of no-tillage cropping without a cover crop sequestered 0.34 +/- 47 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) (mean comparison, p = 0.04). Current government incentive programs recommend agricultural practices that would contribute to SOC sequestration. Participation in the Conservation Security Program could lead to government payments of up to Dollars 20 ha(-1). Current open-market trading of C credits would appear to yield less than Dollars 3 ha(-1), although prices would greatly increase should a government policy to limit greenhouse gas emissions be mandated.     

Changes in Soil Particulate Organic Matter, Microbial Biomass, and Activity Following Afforestation of Marginal Agricultural Lands in a Semi-Arid Area of Northeast China

Afforestation of agricultural lands has been one of the major land use changes in China in recent decades. To better understand the effect of such land use change on soil quality, we investigated selected soil physical, chemical and microbial properties (0–15 cm depth) in marginal agricultural land and a chronosequence of poplar (Populus euramericana cv. ‘N3016’) plantations (5-, 10-, 15- and 20-years old) in a semi-arid area of Northeast China. Soil bulk density significantly declined after conversion of agricultural lands to poplar plantations. Soil total organic carbon (TOC) and nitrogen (TN) concentrations, microbial biomass C (MBC) and potential N mineralization rate (PNM) decreased initially following afforestation of agricultural lands, and then increased with stand development. However, soil metabolic quotient (qCO₂) exhibited a reverse trend. In addition, soil particulate organic matter C (POM-C) and N (POM-N) concentrations showed no significant changes in the first 10 years following afforestation, and then increased with stand age. These findings demonstrated that soil quality declined initially following afforestation of agricultural lands in semi-arid regions, and then recovered with stand development. Following 15 years of afforestation, many soil quality parameters recovered to the values found in agricultural land. We propose that change in soil quality with stand age should be considered in determining optimum rotation length of plantations and best management practices for afforestation programs.     

Land-use changes and carbon sequestration through the twentieth century in a Mediterranean mountain ecosystem: Implications for land management

Ecosystems in the western Mediterranean basin have undergone intense changes in land use throughout the centuries, resulting in areas with severe alterations. Today, most these areas have become sensitive to human activity, prone to profound changes in land-use configuration and ecosystem services. A consensus exists amongst stakeholders that ecosystem services must be preserved but managerial strategies that help to preserve them while ensuring sustainability are often inadequate. To provide a basis for measuring implications of land-use change on carbon sequestration services, changes in land use and associated carbon sequestration potential throughout the 20th century in a rural area at the foothills of the Sierra Nevada range (SE Spain) were explored. We found that forest systems replaced dryland farming and pastures from the middle of the century onwards as a result of agricultural abandonment and afforestation programs. The area has always acted as a carbon sink with sequestration rates ranging from 28,961 t CO₂ year^?1 in 1921 to 60,635 t CO₂ year^?1 in 1995, mirroring changes in land use. Conversion from pastures to woodland, for example, accounted for an increase in carbon sequestration above 30,000 t CO₂ year^?1 by the end of the century. However, intensive deforestation would imply a decrease of approximately 66% of the bulk CO₂ fixed. In our study area, woodland conservation is essential to maintain the ecosystem services that underlie carbon sequestration. Our essay could inspire policymakers to better achieve goals of increasing carbon sequestration rates and sustainability within protected areas.     

Greenhouse gas mitigation options in the Forest sector of Russia: National and project level assessments

Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation options in the Russian forest sector include: afforestation and reforestation of unforested/degraded land area; enhanced forest productivity; incorporation of nondestructive methods of wood harvesting in the forest industry; establishment of land protective forest stands; increase in stand age of final harvest in the European part of Russia; increased fire control; increased disease and pest control; and preservation of old growth forests in the Russian Far-East, which are presently threatened. Considering the implementation of all of the options presented, the GHG mitigation potential within the forest and agroforestry sectors of Russia is approximately 0.6–0.7 Pg C/yr or one half of the industrial carbon emissions of the United States. The difference between the GHG mitigation potential and the actual level of GHGs mitigated in the Russian forest sector will depend to a great degree on external financing that may be available. One possibility for external financing is through joint implementation (JI). However, under the JI process, each project will be evaluated by considering a number of criteria including also the difference between the carbon emissions or sequestration for the baseline (or reference) and the project case, the permanence of the project, and leakage. Consequently, a project level assessment must appreciate the near-term constraints that will face practitioners who attempt to realize the GHG mitigation potential in the forest and agroforestry sectors of their countries.     

Modeling the Potential of the Northern China Forest Shelterbelt in Improving Hydroclimate Conditions1

Abstract: The forest shelterbelt (afforestation) project in northern China is the most significant ecosystem project initiated in China during the past three decades. It aims to improve and conserve the ecological environment in the project areas. The tree belt stands along the southern edge of the sandy lands, nearly paralleling to the Great Wall. This study used a regional climate model to simulate the potential of improving regional hydroclimate conditions resulting from the afforestation project. Two simulations with preafforestation and postafforestation land cover were performed over East Asia from January 1987 to February 1988. The model resolution is 60 km. The differences between the two simulations suggest that the northern China forest shelterbelt project is likely to improve overall hydroclimate conditions by increasing precipitation, relative humidity, and soil moisture, and by reducing prevailing winds and air temperature. The effects are more significant in spring and summer than fall and winter. Changes in many hydrologic properties (e.g., evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and water yield), however, differ between the dry Northeast China and the moist Northeast China. The hydroclimate effects are also found in the surrounding areas, featured by noticeably moister conditions in the area south of the afforestation project. The results imply that the shelterbelt project would reduce water yield in afforested Northwest and North China during spring, but increase water yield in the afforested Northeast China as well as in the southern surrounding area, offset some greenhouse effects, and reduce the severity of dust storms. Possible improvements of this study by using actual afforestation data, modeling with higher resolution, longer integration and more detailed processes, and analyzing the physical mechanisms are discussed.     

Greenhouse gas mitigation options in the Forest sector of Russia: National and project level assessments

Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation options in the Russian forest sector include: afforestation and reforestation of unforested/degraded land area; enhanced forest productivity; incorporation of nondestructive methods of wood harvesting in the forest industry; establishment of land protective forest stands; increase in stand age of final harvest in the European part of Russia; increased fire control; increased disease and pest control; and preservation of old growth forests in the Russian Far-East, which are presently threatened. Considering the implementation of all of the options presented, the GHG mitigation potential within the forest and agroforestry sectors of Russia is approximately 0.6–0.7 Pg C/yr or one half of the industrial carbon emissions of the United States. The difference between the GHG mitigation potential and the actual level of GHGs mitigated in the Russian forest sector will depend to a great degree on external financing that may be available. One possibility for external financing is through joint implementation (JI). However, under the JI process, each project will be evaluated by considering a number of criteria including also the difference between the carbon emissions or sequestration for the baseline (or reference) and the project case, the permanence of the project, and leakage. Consequently, a project level assessment must appreciate the near-term constraints that will face practitioners who attempt to realize the GHG mitigation potential in the forest and agroforestry sectors of their countries.

     

Estimating and valuing the carbon sequestered in softwood and hardwood trees, timber products and forest soils in Wales

Models of carbon storage in softwood and hardwood trees and forest soils and its emission from timber products and waste are developed and integrated with data on storage benefits to yield estimates of the value of the net carbon flux generated by afforestation. The long-term nature of the processes under consideration and the impact of varying the discount rate are explicitly incorporated within the model. A geographical information system (GIS) is used to apply carbon sequestration models to data on tree growth and soil type distribution for a large study area (the entire country of Wales). The major findings are: (1) all three elements under analysis (carbon sequestration in livewood, release from different products and waste, and storage or emission from soils) play a vital role in determining overall carbon flux; (2) woodland management has a substantial impact upon carbon storage in livewood however the choice of discount rate exerts the largest overall influence upon estimated carbon flux values; (3) timber growth rates (yield class) also have a major impact upon values; (4) tree species does affect storage values, however this is less important than the other factors listed above; (5) non-peat soils generally sequester relatively low levels of carbon. Planting upon peat soils can result in very substantial emissions of carbon which exceed the level of storage in livewood.The GIS is used to produce valuation maps which can be readily incorporated within cost-benefit analyses regarding optimal locations for conversion of land into forestry.     

Fire Regimes and Tree Growth in Low Rainfall Jarrah Forest of South-west Australia

Regular fuel reduction burning is an important management strategy for reducing the scale and intensity of wildfires in south-west Australian native forests, but the long term effects of this on tree and stand growth are not well understood. Five fire treatments, including application of frequent and infrequent low intensity burns, and 25 years of fire exclusion, were applied to small (4 ha) experimental plots in a low rainfall mixed jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) and marri (Corymbia calophylla) forest to investigate the effects of these treatments on tree stem diameter growth, stand basal area increment and tree mortality. Mean tree stem growth measured over 20 years was lowest in the long unburnt treatment compared with the burn treatments, although surface soil nutrient levels were generally higher in the unburnt treatment, suggesting these sites may be moisture limited. There was no clear pattern of the effects of the burn treatments, including the number of fires and the interval between fires, on tree stem growth, stand basal area increment, crown health or mortality. These factors were strongly influenced by dominance condition, with dominant and co-dominant trees growing most and suppressed trees growing least and experiencing the highest mortality levels. There was no evidence of deteriorating tree or stand health that could be attributed to either regular low intensity burning or to a long period (25 years) of fire exclusion.     

Carbon Sequestration Potential and Marketable Carbon Value of Smallholder Agroforestry Parklands Across Climatic Zones of Burkina Faso: Current Status and Way Forward for REDD+ Implementation

Agroforestry plays an important role in climate mitigation through atmospheric carbon removal by photosynthetic activity of tree. However, the carbon sequestration potential of smallholder’s agroforestry’s parklands is not well documented in Burkina Faso. Therefore, agroforestry parkland of smallholders’ farmers in three climatic zones was studied. Thirty household farmlands in each climatic zone representing about 35 ha were selected on which systematic woody species inventory and dendrometry data collections were undertaken. Nondestructive method using fitted allometrics equations was used to compute carbon stock. Sustainability analysis of carbon sequestration potential was done using ]0–10], ]10–40], and ]40–110 cm] diameter class as long term, medium term, and short term, respectively. The balance between marketable carbon value and the trade-off from tree conservation of three major crops was also analyzed. The results revealed 24.71 ± 5.84 tCO2 ha−1, 28.35 ± 5.84 tCO2 ha−1, and 33.86 ± 5.84 tCO2 ha−1 in Ouahigouya, Sapouy, and Bouroum-Bouroum at p < 0.1 respectively. Long- and short-term carbon sequestration potential was attributed to Ouahigouya with 1.82 and 68.03%, respectively. With, the medium term analysis Sapouy came first with 71.71% of total amount of carbon. The marketable carbon value was less than trade-off value resulting in keeping trees and crop production. The balance analysis revealed that carbon payment system promoted by REDD+ initiative will be profitable and compensable to smallholder farmers effort to plant and keep tree when the tCO2 ha−1 price will be around US$ 4.00. By taking into account farmers’ interests and profitability on carbon market will be the most relevant incentive method to enhance carbon stock in agroforestry parkland.     

Carbon accounting rules and guidelines for the United States forest sector

The United States Climate Change Initiative includes improvements to the U.S. Department of Energy's Voluntary Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program. The program includes specific accounting rules and guidelines for reporting and registering forestry activities that reduce atmospheric CO2 by increasing carbon sequestration or reducing emissions. In the forestry sector, there is potential for the economic value of emissions credits to provide increased income for landowners, to support rural development, to facilitate the practice of sustainable forest management, and to support restoration of ecosystems. Forestry activities with potential for achieving substantial reductions include, but are not limited to: afforestation, mine land reclamation, forest restoration, agroforestry, forest management, short-rotation biomass energy plantations, forest protection, wood production, and urban forestry. To be eligible for registration, the reported reductions must use methods and meet standards contained in the guidelines. Forestry presents some unique challenges and opportunities because of the diversity of activities, the variety of practices that can affect greenhouse gases, year-to-year variability in emissions and sequestration, the effects of activities on different forest carbon pools, and accounting for the effects of natural disturbance.     

Simulating long-term and residual effects of nitrogen fertilization on corn yields, soil carbon sequestration, and soil nitrogen dynamics

Soil carbon sequestration (SCS) has the potential to attenuate increasing atmospheric CO2 and mitigate greenhouse warming. Understanding of this potential can be assisted by the use of simulation models. We evaluated the ability of the EPIC model to simulate corn (Zea mays L.) yields and soil organic carbon (SOC) at Arlington, WI, during 1958-1991. Corn was grown continuously on a Typic Argiudoll with three N levels: LTN1 (control), LTN2 (medium), and LTN3 (high). The LTN2 N rate started at 56 kg ha(-1) (1958), increased to 92 kg ha(-1) (1963), and reached 140 kg ha(-1) (1973). The LTN3 N rate was maintained at twice the LTN2 level. In 1984, each plot was divided into four subplots receiving N at 0, 84, 168, and 252 kg ha(-1). Five treatments were used for model evaluation. Percent errors of mean yield predictions during 1958-1983 decreased as N rate increased (LTN1 = -5.0%, LTN2 = 3.5%, and LTN3 = 1.0%). Percent errors of mean yield predictions during 1985-1991 were larger than during the first period. Simulated and observed mean yields during 1958-1991 were highly correlated (R2 = 0.961, p < 0.01). Simulated SOC agreed well with observed values with percent errors from -5.8 to 0.5% in 1984 and from -5.1 to 0.7% in 1990. EPIC captured the dynamics of SOC, SCS, and microbial biomass. Simulated net N mineralization rates were lower than those from laboratory incubations. Improvements in EPIC's ability to predict annual variability of crop yields may lead to improved estimates of SCS.     

LAND-USE AND UPLAND WATER RESOURCES IN BRITAIN - A STRATEGIC LOOK1

ABSTRACT: Recent results from the Institute of Hydrology's hydrometeorological and hydrological studies on water use by forest and grassland confirm earlier predictions of a reduction in water yields following afforestation. This reduction is due primarily to the increased interception losses from forests. This paper shows how the water yield from uplands is related to the relative proportions of land under forest and hill farming, and estimates how water yields will change if a greater proportion of hill land is afforested.