Energy technology modelling of major carbon abatement options

The International Energy Agency Energy Technologies Perspectives (ETP) model is used to assess the prospects for carbon abatement options, including carbon capture and storage, up to 2050. Three main scenarios are considered: a Baseline scenario with current energy policies, an accelerated technology scenario that seeks to return energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2050 to their level in 2005, and a scenario for which CO₂ emissions are reduced at 50% of current levels by 2050. To reach these emissions reduction targets, annual global CO₂ emissions in the year 2050 must be reduced by 35 GtCO₂ to 48 GtCO₂ compared to the Baseline scenario. The analysis presented here shows that a broad portfolio of emissions reducing technologies will need to be deployed across all economic sectors of the global economy to reach these targets. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one of the suite of technologies employed across the globe to reach these targets. CCS adoption occurs in many aspects of the global economy and accounts for 14–19% of all emissions reductions. The total amount of CO₂ captured and stored in deep geologic reservoirs up to 2050 ranges between 5.1 GtCO₂ and 10.4 GtCO₂ in these two climate policy scenarios. Up to 2030, more than half of total CCS deployment takes place in OECD countries. After 2035, emerging economies account for more than half of total CCS use. This paper also demonstrates that as the climate policy becomes more stringent it will be necessary for CCS to deploy more extensively in many different industries outside of the electric power sector which often receives the most attention in discussions of CCS's role in addressing climate change.     

Double catastrophe: intermittent stratospheric geoengineering induced by societal collapse

Perceived failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has prompted interest in avoiding the harms of climate change via geoengineering, that is, the intentional manipulation of Earth system processes. Perhaps the most promising geoengineering technique is stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), which reflects incoming solar radiation, thereby lowering surface temperatures. This paper analyzes a scenario in which SAI brings great harm on its own. The scenario is based on the issue of SAI intermittency, in which aerosol injection is halted, sending temperatures rapidly back toward where they would have been without SAI. The rapid temperature increase could be quite damaging, which in turn creates a strong incentive to avoid intermittency. In the scenario, a catastrophic societal collapse eliminates society’s ability to continue SAI, despite the incentive. The collapse could be caused by a pandemic, nuclear war, or other global catastrophe. The ensuing intermittency hits a population that is already vulnerable from the initial collapse, making for a double catastrophe. While the outcomes of the double catastrophe are difficult to predict, plausible worst-case scenarios include human extinction. The decision to implement SAI is found to depend on whether global catastrophe is more likely from double catastrophe or from climate change alone. The SAI double catastrophe scenario also strengthens arguments for greenhouse gas emissions reductions and against SAI, as well as for building communities that could be self-sufficient during global catastrophes. Finally, the paper demonstrates the value of integrative, systems-based global catastrophic risk analysis.     

Evaluation of large-scale CO2 storage on fresh-water sections of aquifers: An example from the Texas Gulf Coast Basin

Large-scale injections of CO₂ into subsurface saline aquifers have been proposed to remediate climate change related to buildup of green house gases in the atmosphere. The pressure buildup caused by such injections may impact a volume of the basin significantly larger than the CO₂ plume itself. In areas with hydrological settings similar to the Gulf Coast Basin, the perturbation of the flow-field in deep parts of the basin could result in brines or brackish water being pushed up-dip into unconfined sections of the same formations or into the capture zone of fresh-water wells. The premise of the current study is that the details of multiple-phase flow processes necessary to model the near field evolution of the CO₂ plume are not necessary to describe the impact of the pressure anomaly on up-dip aquifers. This paper quantitatively explores conditions under which shallow groundwater would be impacted by up-dip displacement of brines, utilizing an existing carefully calibrated flow model. Modeling an injection of water, arguably equivalent to 50 million tons of CO₂/year for 50 years resulted in an average water-table rise of 1 m, with minor increase in stream baseflow and larger increase in ground water evapotranspiration, but no significant change in salinity.     

Panel heterogeneous distribution analysis of trade and modernized agriculture on CO2 emissions: The role of renewable and fossil fuel energy consumption

In line with the global target of reducing climate change and its impact, this study explored the causal relationship between CO₂ emissions, modernized agriculture, trade openness, aggregate and disaggregate energy consumption in 14 African countries from 1990–2013 using a panel quantile estimation procedure. The empirical results showed that value addition to agricultural commodities declines CO₂ emissions in countries with high pollution levels. The study revealed a positive nexus between CO₂ emissions and energy consumption homogeneously distributed across quantiles. Trade openness was found to lower CO₂ emissions in countries with lower and higher levels of environmental pollution. While fossil fuel energy consumption was found to exacerbate CO₂ emissions, renewable energy consumption confirmed its mitigating effect on environmental pollution. The institution of climate‐smart agricultural options will sustainably increase productivity and income while adapting to climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Diversification of energy technologies with clean and modern energy sources like renewables avoid the over‐dependence on fossil fuels for agricultural purposes. Trade policies can stimulate flows of technology and investment opportunities for specialization in production and economies of scale. Hence, the consideration of policies that boost agricultural sector productivity and create an efficient market for international trade in Africa will help in improving livelihoods.     

THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON THE PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY OF A SUBALPINE LAKE1

ABSTRACT Atmospheric scientists have predicted that large-scale climatic changes will result from increasing levels of tropospheric CO₂ We have investigated the potential effects of climate change on the primary productivity of Castle Lake, a mountain lake in Northern California. Annual algal productivity was modeled empirically using 25 years of limnological data in order to establish predictive relationships between productivity and the climatic variables of accumulated snow depth and precipitation. The outputs of monthly temperature and precipitation from three general circulation models (GCMs) of doubled atmospheric CO₂ were then used in the regression model to predict annual algal productivity. In all cases, the GCM scenarios predicted increased algal productivity for Castle Lake under cenditions of doubled atmospheric CO₂The primary cause of enhanced productivity was the increased length of the growing season resulting from earlier spring ice-out.     

Assessing the impact of CO2 emission control scenarios in Finland on radiative forcing and greenhouse effect

Carbon dioxide emission reduction scenarios for Finland are compared with respect to the radiative forcing they cause (heating power due to the absorption of infrared radiation in the atmosphere). Calculations are made with the REFUGE system model using three carbon cycle models to obtain an uncertainity band for the development of the atmospheric concentration. The future emissions from the use of fossil fuels in Finland are described with three scenarios. In the reference scenario (business-as-usual), the emissions and the radiative forcing they cause would grow continuously. In the scenario of moderate emission reduction, the emissions would decrease annually by 1% from the first half of the next century. The radiative forcing would hardly decrease during the next century, however. In the scenario of strict emission reductions, the emissions are assumed to decrease annually by 3%, but the forcing would not decrease until approximately from the middle of the next century depending on the model used. Still, in the year 2100 the forcing would be considerably higher than the forcing in 1990. Due to the slow removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere by the oceans, it is difficult to reach a decreasing radiative forcing only by limiting fossil CO₂ emissions. The CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels in Finland contribute to the global emissions presently by about 0.2%. The relative contribution of Finnish CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels to the global forcing due to CO₂ emissions is presently somewhat less than 0.2% due to relatively smaller emissions in the past. The impact of the nonlinearity of both CO₂ removal from the atmosphere and of CO₂ absorption of infrared radiation on the results is discussed.     

CO2 storage capacity estimation: Issues and development of standards

Associated with the endeavours of geoscientists to pursue the promise that geological storage of CO₂ has of potentially making deep cuts into greenhouse gas emissions, Governments around the world are dependent on reliable estimates of CO₂ storage capacity and insightful indications of the viability of geological storage in their respective jurisdictions. Similarly, industry needs reliable estimates for business decisions regarding site selection and development. If such estimates are unreliable, and decisions are made based on poor advice, then valuable resources and time could be wasted. Policies that have been put in place to address CO₂ emissions could be jeopardised. Estimates need to clearly state the limitations that existed (data, time, knowledge) at the time of making the assessment and indicate the purpose and future use to which the estimates should be applied. A set of guidelines for estimation of storage capacity will greatly assist future deliberations by government and industry on the appropriateness of geological storage of CO₂ in different geological settings and political jurisdictions. This work has been initiated under the auspices of the Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (www.cslforum.org), and it is intended that it will be an ongoing taskforce to further examine issues associated with storage capacity estimation.     

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS UNCERTAINTY FOR WATER RESOURCES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN RIVER BASIN,CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: A climate change impacts assessment for water resources in the San Joaquin River region of California is presented. Regional climate projections are based on a 1 percent per year CO₂ increase relative to late 20th Century CO₂ conditions. Two global projections of this CO₂ increase scenario are considered (HadCM2 and PCM) during two future periods (2010 to 2039 and 2050 to 2079). HadCM2 projects faster warming than PCM. HadCM2 and PCM project wetter and drier conditions, respectively, relative to present climate. In the HadCM2 case, there would be increased reservoir inflows, increased storage limited by existing capacity, and increased releases for deliveries and river flows. In the PCM case, there would be decreased reservoir inflows, decreased storage and releases, and decreased deliveries. Impacts under either projection case cannot be regarded as more likely than the other. Most of the impacts uncertainty is attributable to the divergence in the precipitation projections. The range of assessed impacts is too broad to guide selection of mitigation projects. Regional planning agencies can respond by developing contingency strategies for these cases and applying the methodology herein to evaluate a broader set of CO₂ scenarios, land use projections, and operational assumptions. Improved agency access to climate projection information is necessary to support this effort.