Evaluating coal bed methane investment in China based on a real options model

In this paper, a real options based binominal lattices model for the investment of coal bed methane (CBM) is conducted. CBM prices and market demand are incorporated into the model as the predominant uncertain factors and it is solved by using the bidimensional binominal lattices approach. Then the model is employed to evaluate the investment in CBM projects in China, and the effect of related policies is analyzed. The empirical results demonstrate that the model can be used to offer a better explanation of why the CBM industry has developed slowly in China from an investment perspective. It is found that the current policy environment is not positive enough to attract investment in the CBM industry. Among various factors, CBM prices yield the most significant effect on stimulating investment in CBM development. Increasing the price subsidy is also an effective policy to stimulate investment and promote the development of the CBM industry in China.     

京津冀及周边地区清洁取暖补贴政策现状、问题与对策

京津冀及周边地区以燃煤为主的农户冬季采暖方式是影响区域大气环境质量的重要原因之一,大规模推进清洁取暖改造是优化区域能源结构、改善大气环境质量的重要举措.本文以京津冀大气污染传输通道城市("2+26"城市)为重点,全面梳理了京津冀及周边地区清洁取暖政策特别是补贴政策的实施情况和主要问题,对近期区域清洁取暖改造补贴投资进行测算,提出未来农村清洁取暖补贴政策的优化建议.结果表明,在现行补贴标准下,补贴资金投入额的差异主要来源于清洁取暖技术路径及农居建筑节能性能的差异,使用热泵类设备并进行建筑节能改造对降低补贴资金投入有积极影响;中央财政的清洁取暖试点城市奖补资金只能覆盖2019年改造补贴所需投资总额的20%左右,地方政府财政压力巨大.未来京津冀及周边地区农村清洁取暖补贴政策应继续充分发挥中央财政支持作用,充分利用市场建立多元化投融资机制,已大规模推进农村清洁取暖改造并已制定清洁取暖补贴政策的地区应继续制定新的补贴政策,尚未大规模改造的地区建议通过试点补贴方式逐步引导推广,清洁取暖补贴标准的制定和调整应在农户可接受、政府可承担的前提下逐步实现退坡.     

Dynamics of household energy consumption in a traditional African city, Ibadan

In the last three decades the Nigerian environment has experienced rapid degradation. A major contributory factor of this phenomenon is the pattern of socioeconomic development in the country that gives little or no consideration to environmental outcomes. An aspect of this development is the economic policy of removal of subsidies on petroleum products initiated in 1986 as a result of the worsening economic situation in the country which begun in the early 1980s. The result of this is that prices of commercial fuels inclusive of kerosene and LPG (cooking gas) have continued to rise beyond the reach of majority of the Nigerian population. The paper examines the effect of increasing prices of petroleum-derived energy sources on the pattern of energy use for cooking in low and middle-income households and the environmental implication in Ibadan, the largest truly indigenous urban centre in sub-Saharan Africa. Results show that prior to the further subsidy removal of 1993, majority of households sampled used kerosene for cooking. Thereafter, a complete or partial switch in the pattern of domestic energy consumption ensued with more households using fuel wood and other more polluting and less efficient energy sources for cooking. The paper recommends a transition towards more environmental friendly energy sources for household use.     

Towards a grand deal on subsidies and climate change

Recent studies have identified public subsidies as a principal cause of unsustainable development. Worldwide, governments are spending up to $U950 billion a year on subsidies. Many of these public subsidies fail to serve their purpose and in fact, often turn out as policy failures as they further distort trade and cause environmental harm. The energy sector is among the most subsidized sectors in the world, receiving over $U240 billion per annum of public subsidies. This article highlights current energy subsidies and their implications. The article examines: (i) the global size and distribution of energy subsidies in industrialized and developing countries; (ii) the impact of these subsidies on the economy, equity and the environment and their role as barriers for sustainable development; (iii) the political economy behind public subsidies and the various political and institutional barriers and lock-in mechanisms that cause subsidies to become entrenched in economic and public structures; and (iv) proposals for effective subsidy reform in energy policies, suggesting a global strategy to eliminate energy subsidies. OECD governments are in a position to take the lead, and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change presents an excellent opportunity of striking a political grand deal and linking the reform of energy subsidies to a meaningful participation of developing countries to the Kyoto Protocol. Moreover, if sinks are to be included in the clean development mechanism (CDM), it is crucial to include the removal of forestry subsidies in the grand deal.     

Causes of energy poverty in a cold and resource-rich country: evidence from Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is an upper-middle-income country and one of the coldest countries in the world with rich energy resources and energy prices considerably lower than in developed countries. This paper presents the first comprehensive overview of household fuel use in Kazakhstan and assesses the causes and extent of energy poverty using the Households Living Conditions Survey dataset of 12,000 households. The results show that there is an overwhelming reliance on coal in Kazakhstan: 40% of all surveyed households use coal for heating, cooking and other needs. In general, liquefied petroleum gas is mainly used for cooking, coal and firewood for heating, while electricity is rarely used for heating. Energy poverty was less prevalent in oil and gas rich regions, due to low gas prices and higher income levels in those regions, while households located in the North Kazakhstan, Central and East Kazakhstan mainly suffer from lack of cleaner fuel options, income poverty, longer and colder winters and consequently energy affordability. Despite low energy prices in Kazakhstan, the results demonstrate that 28% of surveyed households spend more than 10% of their income on energy. Gas and district heating infrastructure coverage and income inequality across its regions contributed the most to energy poverty in Kazakhstan. Energy prices are regulated and indirectly subsidised. Removing energy subsidies alone may worsen energy affordability of households. Offering direct subsidies to cover part of the energy expenditures may not fully solve the problem, but subsidies, interventions for efficient technologies and fuels, dwelling energy-efficiency improvements are necessary.     

The costs and benefits of reforestation in Liping County, Guizhou Province, China

Reducing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is becoming a pressing issue for the global community. Afforestation and reforestation are promoted worldwide as an effective means of sequestering carbon. For its national interest and global concerns, China has made great efforts to protect its existing forests and develop programs of afforestation and reforestation. Based on two surveys recently conducted in Liping County, Guizhou province, this paper investigates the economic changes associated with the implementation of the "Grain For Green" policy. Based on the analytical framework of benefit cost analysis, this paper concludes that the implementation of the reforestation of sloping agricultural land policy would not be possible if there were no government subsidies for the peasants. The short term economic returns of land and labour from forestation are substantially lower than those generated from grain or cash crop production on the steep slope lands. The government subsidies provide great economic incentives for peasants to take part in the project. The subsidies in fact have elevated peasant income in rural Liping. The estimated potential economic returns of plantations over the long run indicate that the removal of the government financial subsidies would not create an economic crisis for the peasants if the current market conditions continue.     

Shifting paths to conservation: policy change discourses and the 2008 US farm bill

From 2004 until 2006, reform of US agricultural subsidy programmes seemed a likely result of pressure from the World Trade Organization. Many groups saw this pressure as an opportunity to ‘green’ farm policy by crafting environmental service payments that could replace crop subsidies. Yet the 2008 US farm bill fell short of such drastic changes. This paper uses discourse analysis to trace the decline of prospects for reform of the farm bill, and a shift to incremental policy making between 2006 and 2008. It finds that, in addition to political and situational factors, striking discursive shifts altered policy debates and outcomes to create particular conservation impacts. It thus argues for broader use of rhetoric theory and discourse analysis to assess environmental policy. Implications for land conservation are presented in the context of interest group tactics.     

江苏省商品有机肥推广应用补贴方式调查与分析研究

概述了我国有机肥产业发展及财政补贴现状。以江苏省商品有机肥推广应用补贴方式为例,探讨了地方政府通过实施企业招标、资格认证、评分审核等措施,扶持有机肥生产企业建设,在实现农业循环经济发展的同时保护生态环境,提高农民和企业参与的积极性。最后提出了借鉴江苏补贴模式,从经济上加大有机肥产业扶持力度,加强质量保证及服务保障体系建设,加强科技支撑、促进行业发展的政策建议。     

Mine infrastructure financing and the subsidy debate

This paper examines the problems Inherent in identifying and measuring infrastructure-related subsidies associated with 'greenfield' natural resource projects. The findings suggest that even if external benefits and costs are ignored, and a market-oriented estimation process is adopted, substantial problems still face policy analysts attempting to measure the extent to which such projects have been subsidized. This conclusion is demonstrated through a detailed examination of the Canadian-based North East British Columbia coal project.     

Assessing the value of CO2 capture ready in new-build pulverised coal-fired power plants in China

Making new plants CO₂ capture ready (CCR) would enable them to retrofit to capture CO₂ at a later date at lower cost when the appropriate policy and/or economic drivers are in place. In order to understand the economic value and investment characteristics of making new plants CCR in China, a typical 600 MW pulverised coal-fired ultra-supercritical power plant, locating in Guangdong province, was examined. Combined with an engineering assessment, costs were estimated for different CCR scenarios. To analyze CCR investment opportunities, the paper applies a cash flow model for valuing capture options and CCR investment. Results were obtained by Monte-Carlo simulation, based on engineering surveys and an IEA GHG CCR study, as well as plant performance information and expert projections on carbon prices, coal prices and electricity prices.CCR investments are justified by factors such as higher retrofitting probabilities, lower early closure probabilities and fair economic return. However, the economic case for CCR largely depends on two factors: (a) whether the original plant is retrofittable without CCR; and (b) the type of investments made, for example, investments essential to CCR tend to be more economic than additional non-essential CCR features such as clutched low pressure turbines. The carbon price and discount rate were found to have significant impacts on the economics of CCR. Overall, it appears that the value of the ‘capture options’ that CCR generates for retrofitting CCS is significant, and so could justify a modest CCR investment, even assuming the original plant is retrofittable without CCR. It was also found the value of CCR might be significantly understated if the range of potential retrofitting dates is artificially constrained.     

Controlling urban air pollution caused by households: uncertainty, prices, and income

We examine the control of air pollution caused by households burning wood for heating and cooking in the developing world. Since the problem is one of controlling emissions from nonpoint sources, regulations are likely to be directed at household choices of wood consumption and combustion technologies. Moreover, these choices are subtractions from, or contributions to, the pure public good of air quality. Consequently, the efficient policy design is not independent of the distribution of household income. Since it is unrealistic to assume that environmental authorities can make lump sum income transfers part of control policies, efficient control of air pollution caused by wood consumption entails a higher tax on wood consumption and a higher subsidy for more efficient combustion technologies for higher income households. Among other difficulties, implementing a policy to promote the adoption of cleaner combustion technologies must overcome the seemingly paradoxical result that efficient control calls for higher technology subsidies for higher income households.     

Developing of a pricing model for Turkish lignite used in thermal plants

The objective of this paper is to develop a general pricing model for Turkish Lignite, which is mainly sold to thermal plants. This model will contribute to the development of coal mining within the scope of privatization efforts of the Turkish energy market. The paper consists of two stages. First, data of 10 thermal plants have been evaluated by using hedonic pricing analysis to determine influential price parameters. The results of hedonic regression analysis indicate the effect and importance of calorific value and electricity price on lignite prices. Second, a general coal-pricing model has been developed by taking into account the results of hedonic analysis. Comparison of the coal prices estimated by the developed pricing model and the coal prices obtained from thermal plants indicates an acceptable relation.     

影响中国碳价的能源价格因素灰关联研究

本文选取中国碳排放价格数据和8种能源价格指数为研究变量,运用灰色关联方法研究了中国能源价格对中国碳价的影响。研究结果发现,化石能源价格对中国碳排放价格的影响较大,特别是煤炭、成品油和基础油价格对碳价的影响最大;低污染能源中,与天然气相比,液化气价格对中国碳排放价格影响明显。研究结果指出了保持碳市场价格稳定、防范价格异常波动的重要性,并从能源价格体系和能源消费结构角度提出了政策建议。     

Modeling protected species as an undesirable output: the case of sea turtle interactions in Hawaii's longline fishery

Interactions with sea turtles have occurred at an alarming rate in swordfish longlining in Hawaii in recent years and various regulations have been put forward to protect sea turtles. In order to understand the cost of reducing sea turtle interactions, methods have been developed to derive the shadow price of sea turtle bycatch based on fisher's welfare loss from a specific regulation. This paper illustrates an alternative method of calculating temporal and trip-specific cost of sea turtle bycatch reduction. The advantages of this method lie in the computation of shadow price without assuming specific regulation implementation and its relatively modest data requirement. A parametric output distance function is used to simultaneously model desirable and undesirable catches. Using the duality argument, the revenue-related shadow price of sea turtle bycatch can be derived from the estimated distance function. Average shadow price of sea turtle bycatch for the period 1991-1999 is estimated to be US $30873 in 1991 dollars. Average shadow prices of sea turtle bycatch by trip characteristics, such as fishing year, trip type and location are also estimated. Such information can be useful for policy makers to analyze tradeoffs and make appropriate policy decisions.     

Impact of different public E&P policies on natural gas reserves and production in Pakistan

Low wellhead domestic gas prices over the past few years have led to the beginning of a shortage in natural gas reserves and production in Pakistan. Gas demand steadily rises in all sectors for being an economical fuel as compare to substitutes. In the view of foregoing consumption trend, the demand for gas is expected to grow with a higher pace during the 2010s. On the contrary, indigenous gas reserves are running out and cannot keep up with the demand. This paper examines the extent of upstream activities in different petroleum policy regimes. The wellhead price for indigenous gas is compared with the prices of alternatives (for example, gas import prices). In order to put the problem in perspective, the relationship between wellhead gas price and cumulative gas reserves in Pakistan are analyzed and we find that the looming gas shortage can be ameliorated in the short-run and eliminated in the long-run through incentivized wellhead price. To put it briefly, the idea is mooted to first take advantage of huge domestic reserves to ensure competitive consumer prices for gas. The findings are applicable to several other economies with under-developed natural resources.     

资源、环境、生态的关系探讨及对自然资源管理的建议

资源、环境和生态是我国生态文明建设的三个关键词,也是地球系统科学的重要组成,但目前学术研究和政策制定上仍存在模棱两可的问题,给自然资源领域的科学发展和贯彻落实生态文明发展理念带来了潜在不利影响,明晰其各自概念边界具有重要理论价值和现实意义。本文在分析自然资源、自然环境和生态环境三者内涵的基础上,对比了国内外关注视角、问题和需求的差异,并根据各自特征属性尝试构建了三者关系及判别图解模型。主要结论为:(1)国内外对自然资源、自然环境和生态环境的关注视角、问题和需求存在显著差异,其关注视角分别为数量、质量和平衡状态,关注问题分别为枯竭、退化和破坏,而关注需求分别为节约、保护和恢复;(2)三个概念的相互关系可通过是否自然、是否有价值和是否生物相关三个属性进行判别,自然资源的本质为有价值的自然环境,与自然环境是包含与被包含的关系,生物相关的自然资源即是生态环境;(3)对自然资源管理提出了拓展调查研究内容、采用"资源环境"表述和对生态治理工程进行以生物多样性为重点的负面影响评价三方面的建议。     

Examining hard coking coal price differentials A hedonic pricing approach

Hedonic pricing models were developed and estimated econometrically to investigate the impact of quality variables on hard coking coal prices in the Japanese market. The results show that the hedonic pricing approach can provide a useful method for evaluating price-quality relations for non-homogeneous products such as hard coking coal. Based on coking coal contract data, the analysis shows that while quality differentials account for a large part of the price variation in hard coking coal, there is a major difference in the way Australian and Canadian hard coking coals are priced. However, this result does not necessarily imply the existence of discriminatory pricing. This is because the current analysis is limited by its ability to account for the complexity of price negotiation process and the difficulty in quantifying non-quality related variables.     

北京清洁取暖政策实施效果及成本收益量化分析

我国北方农村地区居民普遍采用的散煤分户取暖是当地污染物排放和温室气体排放的重要来源。为加大散煤治理、推进清洁取暖,北京率先推行了清洁取暖政策。本研究基于北京市约4000户农村家庭的入户调查数据,对清洁取暖政策的实施效果进行系统性分析,并对"煤改电""煤改气"和"清洁燃煤替代"三种主要清洁取暖措施的成本和收益进行量化与对比分析。结果显示,"煤改电""煤改气"和"清洁燃煤替代"均增加了居民的取暖成本,但也普遍改善了居民取暖的主观感受;政策实施减少污染物排放所带来的环境和人体健康方面的收益均大于实施成本,增进了社会福利。其中,"煤改气"户均收益最高,而"清洁燃煤替代"户均成本最低。最后,本文在研究结果的基础上,对取暖政策的推行提出相应的政策建议。     

Planning implications from the interactions between renewable energy programs and carbon regulation

Complex relationships exist between programs to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the electricity sector and programs to promote renewable electricity generation. Simulation modeling of three scenarios in the UK electricity sector are used to identify potential interactions between these programs. A strict CO₂ cap can result in a renewable electricity requirement being easily met. Conversely, the renewables quota could be required under low natural gas prices to keep electricity suppliers from switching from coal to gas. Similarly, CO₂ trading can reduce renewables deployment levels because purchased CO₂ allowances replace renewables. Therefore, both programs are required to ensure CO₂ and renewables goals. The planning implications for administrative procedures and renewables subsidies are also discussed.     

Recent progress in coal bioprocessing research in Europe

European work on the application of biotechnology to processing various coals is reviewed and set within a wider context. Both U.S. and European work are discussed. In connection with work on microbial desulphurisation, European effort, particularly that centred on Delft University in the Netherlands, has concentrated on looking towards practical plant designs based on kinetic reaction data obtained in the laboratory. The question of desulphurisation looks rather different from a European (and world) perspective, compared with the situation in the U.S. There are, for example, several countries with high sulphur, low rank coals, where a higher proportion of the sulphur is present in organic form.While the work on pyrite removal has been well documented and has been replicated by different workers, that on organic sulphur removal is at a much earlier stage. In the U.K., work is going on to enhance the physical separation processes currently used in coal cleaning, using micro-organisms to alter the surface properties of various particles during flotation. This approach has the possibility of relatively short-term application and low capital costSome fundamental studies looking for organisms to attack and degrade the coal molecule, particularly in the F.R.G., have been based on bituminous coal. This contrasts with U.S. work which has met with some success with lignites and weathered lignite in the form of leonardite.The use of biotechnology in connection with coal must be looked at principally as a potential long-term development. The inherent problems associated with the nature of coal must be recognised but research work is already demonstrating possibilities that even 5 or 10 years ago would have been discounted. With advances in analytical techniques, one of the first benefits to be gained may well be a better knowledge and understanding of coal structure from looking at its degradation products.