北京清洁取暖政策实施效果及成本收益量化分析

我国北方农村地区居民普遍采用的散煤分户取暖是当地污染物排放和温室气体排放的重要来源。为加大散煤治理、推进清洁取暖,北京率先推行了清洁取暖政策。本研究基于北京市约4000户农村家庭的入户调查数据,对清洁取暖政策的实施效果进行系统性分析,并对"煤改电""煤改气"和"清洁燃煤替代"三种主要清洁取暖措施的成本和收益进行量化与对比分析。结果显示,"煤改电""煤改气"和"清洁燃煤替代"均增加了居民的取暖成本,但也普遍改善了居民取暖的主观感受;政策实施减少污染物排放所带来的环境和人体健康方面的收益均大于实施成本,增进了社会福利。其中,"煤改气"户均收益最高,而"清洁燃煤替代"户均成本最低。最后,本文在研究结果的基础上,对取暖政策的推行提出相应的政策建议。

The Effectiveness and Cost-Benefit Analysis of Clean Heating Program in Beijing

The widely use of scattered coal for heating in northern rural areas in China has led to severe air pollution and greenhouse gases emissions. To solve these problems, Beijing started a clean heating program. Based on a comprehensive household survey covering 4000 households in rural Beijing, this paper conducted a systematic analysis on the effectiveness of clean heating program, and a comparative analysis on the cost-benefit of 3 clean heating measures including coal to electricity, coal to gas, clean coal replacement. The results showed that this program improved heating experience of enrolled households at the cost of increasing household heating cost, even after the subsidies; and it generated a positive net benefit from reducing the emissions of air pollution and greenhouse gases, in which coal to gas got the highest average benefit per household and clean coal replacement got the lowest cost per household. Based on the findings, short-term, middle-term and long-term policy recommendations were proposed.