Alternative energy balances for Bulgaria to mitigate climate change

Alternative energy balances aimed to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are developed as alternatives to the baseline energy balance. The section of mitigation options is based on the results of the GHG emission inventory for the 1987–1992 period. The energy sector is the main contributor to the total CO₂ emissions of Bulgaria. Stationary combustion for heat and electricity production as well as direct end-use combustion amounts to 80% of the total emissions. The parts of the energy network that could have the biggest influence on GHG emission reduction are identified. The potential effects of the following mitigation measures are discussed: rehabilitation of the combustion facilities currently in operation; repowering to natural gas; reduction of losses in thermal and electrical transmission and distribution networks; penetration of new combustion technologies; tariff structure improvement; renewable sources for electricity and heat production; wasteheat utilization; and supply of households with natural gas to substitute for electricity in space heating and cooking. The total available and the achievable potentials are estimated and the implementation barriers are discussed.

     

Bulgaria Country Study to address climate change mitigation

Future developments of the Bulgarian economy, energy demand, energy supply, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected and evaluated for baseline and mitigation scenarios. Different methods and approaches are used at different stages of the study with a tendency to incorporate them in a single integrated resource planning tool such as the MARKAL-MACRO model. The results obtained indicate that the aim of Framework Convention of Climate Change to have year 2000 GHG emissions below the base year 1988 emissions will be achieved without further mitigation steps. Reducing the expected increase of GHG emissions in the decade 2000 to 2010 requires a package of mitigation measures to be implemented in the next few years.

     

The energy,water, and air pollution implications of tapping China's shale gas reserves

China has laid out an ambitious strategy for developing its vast shale gas reserves. This study developed an input–output based hybrid life-cycle inventory model to estimate the energy use, water consumption, and air emissions implications of shale gas infrastructure development in China over the period 2013–2020, including well drilling and operation, land rig and fracturing fleet manufacture, and pipeline construction. Multiple scenarios were analyzed based on different combinations of well development rates, well productivities, and success rates. Results suggest that 700–5100 petajoules (PJ) of primary energy will be required for shale gas infrastructure development, while the net primary energy yield of shale gas production over 2013–2020 was estimated at 1650–7150 PJ, suggesting a favorable energy balance. Associated emissions of CO₂e were estimated at 80–580 million metric tons, and were primarily attributable to coal-fired electricity generation, fugitive methane, and flaring of methane during shale gas processing and transmission. Direct water consumption was estimated at 20–720 million metric tons. The largest sources of energy use and emissions for infrastructure development were the metals, mining, non-metal mineral products, and power sectors, which should be the focus of energy efficiency initiatives to reduce the impacts of shale gas infrastructure development moving forward.     

考虑“水—土—能—碳”关联的我国工农业碳排放效率及减排潜力研究

考虑“水—土—能—碳”关联，本文将水土资源要素纳入投入变量，构建了我国工农业碳排放效率投入产出测度指标，运用考虑非期望产出的SBM-undesirable模型计算我国29个省份2004—2017年农业、工业部门碳排放效率，利用乘法逆转法计算碳减排潜力并对影响碳排放的投入产出因素进行分析。结果表明：研究期内我国整体农业、工业碳排放效率均呈波动下降趋势，各年的农业碳排放效率均高于工业碳排放效率，江苏、山东等7省份农业碳排放效率以及北京、天津工业碳排放效率最优；各省份农业、工业减排潜力和规模具有显著差异，山西、甘肃的农业、工业碳减排均具有较大潜力；我国绝大多数省份均存在农业、工业的资源能源投入冗余和非期望产出冗余，土地资源投入过剩是影响农业碳排放效率的最重要因素，水资源投入过剩是影响工业碳排放效率的最重要因素。碳排放效率较低省份应积极开展技术创新，发展低碳技术，提高水土资源和能源利用效率，减少碳排放。     

Estimating the potential of greenhouse gas mitigation in Kazakhstan

As part of the studies related to the obligations of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Republic of Kazakhstan started activities to inventory greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and assess of GHG mitigation options. The objective of this paper is to present an estimate of the possibility of mitigating GHG emissions and determine the mitigation priorities. It presents a compilation of the possible options and their assessment in terms of major criteria and implementation feasibility. Taking into account the structure of GHG emissions in Kazakhstan in 1990, preliminary estimates of the potential for mitigation are presented for eight options for the energy sector and agriculture and forestry sector. The reference scenario prepared by expert assessments assumes a reduction of CO₂ emissions in 1996–1998 by about 26% from the 1990 level due to general economic decline, but then emissions increase. It is estimated that the total potential for the mitigation of CO₂ emissions for the year 2000 is 3% of the CO₂ emissions in the reference scenario. The annual reduction in methane emissions due to the estimated options can amount to 5%–6% of the 1990 level.

     

Using coal for transportation in China: Life cycle GHG of coal-based fuel and electric vehicle,and policy implications

This paper compares the GHG emissions of coal-to-liquid (CTL) fuels to the GHG emissions of electric vehicles (EVs) powered with coal-to-electricity in China. A life cycle model is used to account for full fuel cycle and use-phase emissions, as well as vehicle cycle and battery manufacturing emissions. It is found that the reduction of life cycle GHG emissions of EVs charged by electricity generated from coal, without utilizing carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology can be 3–36% when compared to petroleum-based gasoline car. The large range in emissions reduction potential is driven by the many different power generation technologies that are and could in the future be used to generate electricity in China. When CCS is employed in power plants, the GHG emission reductions increase to 60–70% compared to petroleum-based gasoline car. However, the use of coal to produce liquid transportation fuels (CTL fuels) will likely lead to significantly increased life cycle GHG emissions, potentially 30–140% higher than petroleum-based gasoline. When CCS is utilized in the CTL plant, the CTL fueled vehicles emit roughly equal GHG emissions to petroleum-based gasoline vehicles from the life cycle perspective. The authors conclude that policies are therefore needed in China in order to accelerate battery technology and infrastructural improvements for EV charging, increased energy efficiency management, and deployment of low-carbon technologies such as CCS.     

Greenhouse gas emissions and energy balance of sunflower biodiesel: Identification of its key factors in the supply chain

The production of first generation biofuels, such as sunflower-based biodiesel, is potentially an option for diversifying the energy matrix in several South American countries. However, biofuels present environmental challenges, especially concerning the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study, using a life-cycle approach, evaluates the GHG emissions and energy balance of the future nationwide production of sunflower-based biodiesel in Chile. Direct land use change is included in the analysis. The overall findings indicate that sunflower biodiesel, under the most likely production conditions, will have better environmental performance than fossil diesel in terms of both indicators. The agricultural stage is associated to key factors such as land use change, and nitrogen fertilizers. These factors contribute significantly to GHG emissions or energy demand in the biodiesel life cycle. The sensitivity analysis shows that no GHG emission saving could occur if nitrogen fertilizers rate exceeds 330 kg N/ha. In order to reduce the environmental impacts of this biofuel, improvement measures are suggested.     

Greenhouse gas mitigation options in the Forest sector of Russia: National and project level assessments

Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation options in the Russian forest sector include: afforestation and reforestation of unforested/degraded land area; enhanced forest productivity; incorporation of nondestructive methods of wood harvesting in the forest industry; establishment of land protective forest stands; increase in stand age of final harvest in the European part of Russia; increased fire control; increased disease and pest control; and preservation of old growth forests in the Russian Far-East, which are presently threatened. Considering the implementation of all of the options presented, the GHG mitigation potential within the forest and agroforestry sectors of Russia is approximately 0.6–0.7 Pg C/yr or one half of the industrial carbon emissions of the United States. The difference between the GHG mitigation potential and the actual level of GHGs mitigated in the Russian forest sector will depend to a great degree on external financing that may be available. One possibility for external financing is through joint implementation (JI). However, under the JI process, each project will be evaluated by considering a number of criteria including also the difference between the carbon emissions or sequestration for the baseline (or reference) and the project case, the permanence of the project, and leakage. Consequently, a project level assessment must appreciate the near-term constraints that will face practitioners who attempt to realize the GHG mitigation potential in the forest and agroforestry sectors of their countries.

     

基于变参数模型的北京碳排放影响因素研究

基于STIRPAT模型,建立了北京碳排放与经济发展水平、能源消耗强度、产业结构和能源消费结构间的变参数模型,得出以下结论：①经济发展水平、能源利用效率和能源消费结构与人均碳排放正相关;产业结构大多数年份与人均碳排放负相关.②经济发展水平对人均碳排放的变弹性系数最大,依次是能源消费结构、能源利用效率和产业结构.③经济发展水平、能源利用效率和产业结构的变弹性系数呈现先升后降再升的趋势,只是上升和下降转折点有差异,能源消费结构变弹性系数波动较大.     

Assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emission savings from compact housing: a small-town case study

Data from the US Department of Energy show that single-family detached homes consume about 17% more energy per year than attached homes and roughly double that of units in large multi-family structures. While greater use of these compact housing types could reduce a community's energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, most local climate action plans (CAPs) do not quantify those potential savings. This article describes how the climate action planning process in the Town of Blacksburg, Virginia has addressed residential sector GHG emissions and demonstrates a methodology applied in that community for estimating potential GHG reductions from compact housing. It finds that in an aggressive compact housing scenario GHG emissions from new housing could be decreased by as much as 36%, without factoring in additional energy conservation or efficiency measures. The article concludes with a discussion of the opportunities and challenges related to implementing compact housing in future residential development.     

Mitigation paths for Chinese iron and steel industry to tackle global climate change

Based on a recognition of the essence of climate change and the pressure on China to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this paper interprets the important role that the Chinese iron and steel industry may play in managing emissions. Through an investigation of the key sources of GHG emissions in the Chinese iron and steel industry, a comparison of the current Chinese and international situations, and a survey of the technology and methods available for reducing GHG emissions, and their application in China, the authors analyze the major issues currently faced by the Chinese iron and steel industry, and propose the following four approaches through which the industry might reduce its GHG emissions: (1) encouragement of clean development mechanism (CDM) projects, mainly involving secondary energy reuse, to provide capital and technology for GHG reduction activities in China; (2) stimulation of the social responsibility-based voluntary carbon market (VCM) to increase the long-term benefits for the Chinese iron and steel industry from emission reductions; (3) undertaking of strict energy auditing to help enterprises establish appropriate emission reduction targets and formulate reasonable plans; (4) promotion of emission reduction-oriented investment within the industry to obtain profits from project operation, while at the same time gaining extra compensation for emission reductions. More specifically, the design of each of these approaches should take into consideration the related economic factors and incentive mechanisms.     

宁夏能源结构的低碳优化研究

宁夏的经济结构具有显著的高碳特征，煤炭与电力行业占全区工业产值的比重约1／2，工业产值又占据宁夏GDP的半壁江山。低碳时代的到来不可逆转，减碳是对宁夏经济的重大考验与挑战。采用灰色关联分析法对宁夏各行业与碳排放的关联度进行分析，并结合各相关产业区域专业化系数分析，提出宁夏产业结构升级和能源结构优化的建议。     

Meeting the climate change challenge: a scan of greenhouse gas emissions in BC communities

The Canadian province of British Columbia (BC) is taking significant steps towards climate change mitigation, including a carbon tax on fossil fuels and legislation that mandates greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions within public sector organisations and GHG reduction targets for municipalities. This paper carries out a preliminary scan of the GHG emissions of BC communities using the provincially mandated Community Energy and Emissions Inventory reports. We map trends in energy consumption and emissions per capita while uncovering correlations between these variables and land-use planning, geographic, and demographic variables. These data have shown that: (1) energy consumption in BC is an adequate proxy for GHG emissions; (2) transportation, more than buildings, is a strong driver of overall GHG emissions; (3) building emissions are not likely to be strongly influenced by dwelling type, but density of buildings is crucial; (4) geographic location influences emissions; and (5) population size and age do not appear to influence per capita emissions. These findings are particularly important as they suggest that the potentially intransigent factors of income and population size need not be barriers to achieving significant GHG reductions. The policy onus thus falls squarely on transportation planning, land-use, energy conservation, and fuel switching. This in turn highlights the importance of deeper underlying sociocultural and political preferences, which shape the behaviours that have a strong bearing on emissions profiles.     

CO2 emissions from Polish cement industry

The cement industry is one of the most significant sources of anthropogenic emissions of CO₂. It is connected with the specific character of the production processes, during which great quantities of CO₂ are produced. Basic actions to reduce CO₂ emissions recommended by the European Union's, Reference Document on Best Available Techniques in the Cement and Lime Manufacturing Industries, include: reduction of fuel consumption, selection of raw materials with low content of organic compounds and fuels with low coal contribution to heating value. All actions connected with the improvement of energy conversion efficiency of the cement production process cause CO₂ emissions reduction. The use of at most acceptable by the valid standards amounts of waste as raw materials and additives for cement production, also brings about the reduction of significant part of CO₂ emissions. These measures have been and continue to be pursued by the cement factories in Poland. This article describes the evolution of the cement industry in Poland over the period 1998–2008 and the resulting changes in CO₂ emissions and explores the drivers for these changes. The sources of CO₂ emissions in cement industry have been presented in this article as well as a discussion of potential ways to reduce Polish cement industry emissions even further.     

Environmental impact evaluation of feeds prepared from food residues using life cycle assessment

There is increasing concern about feeds prepared from food residues (FFR) from an environmental viewpoint; however, various forms of energy are consumed in the production of FFR. Environmental impacts of three scenarios were therefore investigated and compared using life cycle assessment (LCA): production of liquid FFR by sterilization with heat (LQ), production of dehydrated FFR by dehydration (DH), and disposal of food residues by incineration (IC). The functional unit was defined as 1 kg dry matter of produced feed standardized to a fixed energy content. The system boundaries included collection of food residues and production of feed from food residues. In IC, food residues are incinerated as waste, and thus the impacts of production and transportation of commercial concentrate feeds equivalent to the FFR in the other scenarios are included in the analysis. Our results suggested that the average amounts of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from LQ, DH, and IC were 268, 1073, and 1066 g of CO(2) equivalent, respectively. The amount of GHG emissions from LQ was remarkably small, indicating that LQ was effective for reducing the environmental impact of animal production. Although the average amount of GHG emissions from DH was nearly equal to that from IC, a large variation of GHG emissions was observed among the DH units. The energy consumption of the three scenarios followed a pattern similar to that of GHG emissions. The water consumption of the FFR-producing units was remarkably smaller than that of IC due to the large volumes of water consumed in forage crop production.     

Feeding fossil fuels to the soil: An analysis of energy embedded and technological learning in the fertilizer industry

In this paper, we assess energy demand due to fertilizer consumption in the period 1961–2001. Based on historical trends of gross energy requirements, we calculated that in 2001, global energy embedded in fertilizer consumption amounted to 3660 PJ, which represents about 1% of the global energy demand. Total energy demand has increased at an average rate of 3.8% p.a. Drivers behind the trend are rising fertilizer consumption and a shift towards more energy intensive fertilizers. Our results show that despite significant energy efficiency improvements in fertilizer manufacture (with exception of phosphate fertilizer in the last 20 years) improvements in energy efficiency have not been sufficient to offset growing energy demand due to rising fertilizer consumption. Furthermore, we found that specific energy consumption of ammonia and urea developed in close concordance with the learning curve model, showing progress ratios of 71% for ammonia production and 88% for urea. This suggests an alternative approach for including technological change in energy intensive industries in middle and long-term models dealing with energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, while few learning curves exist for energy efficiency of end use technologies.     

基于碳排放抵扣的碳排放计量方法研究——以钢材生产为例

随着全球气候变暖趋势的不断加剧,碳排放已经成为国内外学者研究的重点,尤其是钢材生产的碳排放情况更是重中之重。针对国内钢材生产碳排放现状,本文提出了一种碳排放抵扣计量方法,该方法以钢材生产碳排放计量基本方法——质量守恒法和活动水平因子法为基础,着重分析了钢材生产过程的理论碳排放、实际碳排放、碳排放抵扣以及企业理论直接减排潜力。并以某钢材生产企业为实例,对该企业生产流程中碳排放进行抵扣分析,识别与企业直接减排潜力相关的物质及流程,增加副产品及二次能源利用度,最后对企业碳减排潜力的研究方向做出初步展望,提出碳减排潜力的有利发展方向。进一步证明该方法的实用性,为该方法在钢材生产企业碳排放权的实际应用提供了理论基础。     

Water–energy–greenhouse gas nexus of urban water systems: Review of concepts,state-of-art and methods

Water supply and wastewater services incur a large amount of energy and GHG emissions. It is therefore imperative to understand the link between water and energy as their availability and demand are closely interrelated. This paper presents a literature review and assessment of knowledge gaps related to water–energy–greenhouse gas (GHG) nexus studies in an urban context from an ‘energy for water’ perspective. The review comprehensively surveyed various studies undertaken in various regions of the world and focusing on individual or multiple subsystems of an urban water system. The paper also analyses the energy intensity of decentralized water systems and various water end-uses together with the major tools and models used. A major gap identified from this review is the lack of a holistic and systematic framework to capture the dynamics of multiple water–energy–GHG linkages in an integrated urban water system where centralized and decentralized water systems are combined to meet increased water demand. Other knowledge gaps identified are the absence of studies, peer reviewed papers, data and information on water–energy interactions while adopting a ‘fit for purpose water strategy’ for water supply. Finally, based on this review, we propose a water–energy nexus framework to investigate ‘fit-for-purpose’ water strategy.     

Economy wide impacts of ethanol and biodiesel policy in Canada: An input–output analysis

The Government of Canada has committed that Canada’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions be reduced by 17% from 2005 levels by 2020. The new Renewable Fuels Regulations required 2% renewable content in diesel fuel and heating distillate oil and 5% for gasoline. This represents approximately 2.1 billion liters of ethanol and 600 million liters of biodiesel requirement per year, which would reduce GHG emissions by more than four million tones. Canada is expected to consume more fuel ethanol compared to its production capacity. The above mandates as well as the gap in consumption and production of biofuel will have enormous impact on the Canadian economy. In this backdrop, an input–output model of the Canadian economy is developed to estimate the macroeconomic impact of the ethanol and biodiesel production in Canada. The impacts on sectoral prices have also been calculated. Simulation exercises have been attempted to reach the mandates using modified Leontief model. Results show that agriculture sector is affected because of feedstock use in the biofuel sector. Mining and manufacturing industries also show a considerable impact. In addition, the impact on commodity prices cannot be ignored. Finally, to meet the target of Copenhagen commitment, the nation needs to revise the blending capacity of ethanol and biodiesel.