Assessing the bio-psychosocial correlates of flood impacts in coastal areas of Lagos,Nigeria

This paper explores the complex heterogeneous experiences of flood impacts based on a bio-psychosocial model of socio-economic, demographic, behavioural and environmental factors. Using ordinary least squares regression on a cross-sectional survey of 1003 individuals, flood impacts in three contiguous coastal neighbourhoods in Lagos, Nigeria, were modelled. The results show that approximately 52% of the variability in flood impact was accounted for by education, age, family structure, ethnicity, personal health concern and income. While involvement in coping was not a significant predictor of flood impacts, relocation emerged as a strong predictor. The inclusion of behavioural factors did not change the magnitude and significance of the relationship between demographic factors and flood impacts. However, the effects of age, education and personal health concern disappeared when environmental factors were controlled. The overall importance of the predictors for determining flood impact in decreasing order is as follows: income > coping strategies > ethnicity = participation in community development > family structure > personal health concerns > housing quality > reasons for living in residential locality > neighbourhood vulnerability to flood > housing vulnerability to flood.     

Toward sustainable use of natural resources: Nexus between resource rents,affluence, energy intensity and carbon emissions in developing and transition economies

Sustainable use of natural resources would entail ensuring that derived economic benefits today do not undermine the welfare of generations to come. On this basis, this study examines the nexus between natural resource rents and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions disaggregated into production and consumption-based (i.e., trade-adjusted) CO₂ emissions for a selected panel of 45 developing and transition economies over the period 1995–2017. The empirical model also incorporates the impacts of population, affluence, and energy intensity. The results show that affluence increases production-based CO₂ emissions by 1.407%, with the EKC's predicted inverted U-shaped curve only explaining consumption-based CO₂ emissions. Economic reliance on natural resource rents and energy intensification contribute 0.022% and 0.766%, respectively, to CO₂ emissions embedded in territorial production inventories and 0.035% and 0.583%, respectively, to CO₂ emissions embedded in consumption inventories. The bootstrap non-causality test shows that historical data on each variable has significant predictive power for future CO₂ emissions from both sources. The historical information about natural resource rents has significant predictive power over the future levels of affluence and energy intensity. Clearly, the results show that the environmental impact of natural resource rents is stronger when CO₂ emissions are adjusted for trade and varies among the countries, with Bangladesh, Guinea, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, and Zimbabwe among the most affected countries. Overall, this study provides motivation for policies to keep the use of natural resources within sustainable limits.     

Limitations of applying life cycle assessment to complex co-product systems: The case of an integrated precious metals smelter-refinery

Integrated smelter-refineries play an important role in the recovery of multiple metals from complex primary and secondary materials, and hence in closing metals cycles. Processes in these facilities are strongly interconnected, dynamic, and multifunctional, which challenges a typical representation in life cycle assessment (LCA). This is especially true when LCA is applied to calculate the environmental profile of single metals products.This study examines methodological requirements for assessing complex co-product systems using attributional LCA through a static, gate-to-gate inventory model that quantifies the environmental impacts of each of the metal products of an integrated precious metals smelter-refinery. The model is based on a large number of subprocesses and is formulated using detailed industry data, which allows quantification of the sensitivity of the results with respect to allocation rationales and the data collection period.The results within one impact category vary strongly among metals (up to four orders of magnitude for copper compared to rhodium). Moving from mass- to value-based allocation changes the result for a given metal by up to two orders of magnitude. If value-based allocation is used, the selected reference year for metals prices influences the results by up to a factor of two.Allocation rationales are critically analyzed, and it is shown that none reflect the business model or other system drivers. While the model is focused on quantifying environmental impacts of metal outputs, the actual process is economically driven to efficiently treat a continuously changing feed mix. The complexity of a smelter-refinery cannot be captured by static, attributional inventory models, which is why the choice of allocation rationale remains arbitrary. Instead, marginal, parameterized models are needed; however, such models are substantially more time and data intensive and require disclosure of more detailed, process specific data.     

Application of a hierarchical framework for assessing environmental impacts of dam operation: changes in streamflow, bed mobility and recruitment of riparian trees in a western North American river

River systems have been altered worldwide by dams and diversions, resulting in a broad array of environmental impacts. The use of a process-based, hierarchical framework for assessing environmental impacts of dams is explored here in terms of a case study of the Kootenai River, western North America. The goal of the case study is to isolate and quantify the relative effects of multiple dams and other river management activities within the study area and to inform potential restoration strategies. In our analysis, first-order impacts describe broad changes in hydrology (determined from local stream gages), second-order impacts quantify resultant changes in channel hydraulics and bed mobility (predicted from a 1D flow model), and third-order impacts describe consequences for recruitment of riparian trees (recruitment box analysis). The study area is a 233km reach bounded by two dams (Libby and Corra Linn). Different times of dam emplacement (1974 and 1938, respectively) allow separation of their relative impacts. Results show significant changes in 1) the timing, magnitude, frequency, duration and rate of change of flows, 2) the spatial and temporal patterns of daily stage fluctuation, unit stream power, shear stress, and bed mobility, and 3) the potential for cottonwood recruitment (Populus spp.). We find that Libby Dam is responsible for the majority of first and second-order impacts, but that both dams diminish cottonwood recruitment; operation of Corra Linn adversely affects recruitment in the lower portion of the study reach by increasing stage recession rates during the seedling establishment period, while operation of Libby Dam affects recruitment in the middle and upper portions of the study reach by changing the timing, magnitude, and duration of flow. We also find that recent experimental flow releases initiated in the 1990s to stimulate recovery of endangered native fish may have fortuitous positive effects on cottonwood recruitment potential in the lower portion of the river. This case study demonstrates how a process-based, hierarchical framework can be used for quantifying environmental impacts of dam operation over space and time, and provides an approach for evaluating alternative management strategies.     

Modelling land use change with generalized linear models--a multi-model analysis of change between 1860 and 2000 in Gallatin Valley, Montana

This paper develops an approach to modelling land use change that links model selection and multi-model inference with empirical models and GIS. Land use change is frequently studied, and understanding gained, through a process of modelling that is an empirical analysis of documented changes in land cover or land use patterns. The approach here is based on analysis and comparison of multiple models of land use patterns using model selection and multi-model inference. The approach is illustrated with a case study of rural housing as it has developed for part of Gallatin County, Montana, USA. A GIS contains the location of rural housing on a yearly basis from 1860 to 2000. The database also documents a variety of environmental and socio-economic conditions. A general model of settlement development describes the evolution of drivers of land use change and their impacts in the region. This model is used to develop a series of different models reflecting drivers of change at different periods in the history of the study area. These period specific models represent a series of multiple working hypotheses describing (a) the effects of spatial variables as a representation of social, economic and environmental drivers of land use change, and (b) temporal changes in the effects of the spatial variables as the drivers of change evolve over time. Logistic regression is used to calibrate and interpret these models and the models are then compared and evaluated with model selection techniques. Results show that different models are 'best' for the different periods. The different models for different periods demonstrate that models are not invariant over time which presents challenges for validation and testing of empirical models. The research demonstrates (i) model selection as a mechanism for rating among many plausible models that describe land cover or land use patterns, (ii) inference from a set of models rather than from a single model, (iii) that models can be developed based on hypothesised relationships based on consideration of underlying and proximate causes of change, and (iv) that models are not invariant over time.     

Accretion of heavy metals in the catfish <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bagrus bayad</Emphasis> from Taylor Creek,southern Nigeria

Heavy metals in the aquatic environment have, to date, come essentially from naturally occurring geochemical resources. However, this has been enhanced by anthropogenic activities such as crude oil exploration and exploitation activities, resulting in pollution in the Taylor Creek aquatic ecosystem. The catfish species Bagrus bayad and other environmental segments were collected from five selected sites along Taylor Creek, southern Nigeria, and total metal concentration determined. The concentration levels of the metals in B. bayad were higher than the values reported in the literature for fresh fish and may lead to a higher risk of harmful effects. The bivariate regression models relating metals in B. bayad and metals in the surface waters were significant (R ² ≥ 0.9002). The log (bio-concentration factor; BCF) values of Cr and Zn in B. bayad were the highest, whereas the lowest was found for Ni. The ecological distribution of the log (BCF) values was, for all the heavy metals, moderately stable over the creek. All log-transformed bio-magnification factors (BMF) in the creek were positive, which indicates that the metal concentration was greater in B. bayad than in suspended particulate matter (SPM). The absolute log (BMF) values of heavy metals can, therefore, be ranked in order of decreasing magnitude: Cr (3.26) > Zn (2.99) > Cd (2.93) > Fe (2.76) > Pb (2.66) > Mn (2.36) > Ni (2.24). This sequence indicates that toxic metals such as Cd, Cr and Pb are undergoing significant bio-reduction from SPM to B. bayad. The degree of correlation between the metals was different in B. bayad, which suggests that the sources of the metals polluting Taylor Creek were diverse.     

Constraints to effective pollution control and management in Nigeria

The issue of environmental protection and the need to establish the practice of environmental friendly programmes in national development consciousness are matters of paramount importance. While environmental consciousness in the developed world has witnessed over the past two decades generally effective mechanisms for pollution abatement, the situation in many third world nations is at best tepid.In Nigeria, the problem of environmental pollution has been of crisis proportions with the problem in some sectors possibly the worst in the world. In response, the government has put in place legislation and established agencies for environmental protection. A number of positive results have been achieved by the nation's main environmental watchdog, the Federal Environmental Protection Agency (FEPA). However, a lot still needs to be done, in terms of improving institutional capacity and adopting economic measures for the management of pollution problems.This paper, therefore, examines the major sources of Nigeria's environmental problems, discusses the weaknesses of existing legal and institutional arrangements and suggests strategies for a more effective pollution control management in Nigeria.     

Direct and indirect land-use change as prospective climate change indicators for peri-urban development transitions

With urban areas responsible for a significant share of total anthropogenic emissions, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to land-use change (LUC) induced by peri-urban (PU) development have the potential to be considerable. Despite this, there is little research into the transition from PU cropland to housing in terms of contribution to global warming. This paper presents a cross-sectoral integrative method for prospective climate change evaluation of PU LUC. Specifically, direct LUC (dLUC) GHG emissions from converting PU cropland to greenfield housing were examined. Additionally, GHG emissions due to displaced crop production inducing indirect LUC (iLUC) elsewhere were assessed. GHG impacts of dLUC and iLUC were each determined to be approximately 8 per cent of total GHG emissions due to a greenfield housing development displacing PU cropland. This magnitude of dLUC and iLUC emissions suggests that both have importance in future land-use decision making with respect to PU environments.     

中国城市CO2排放和空气质量协同变化特征及驱动因素研究

城市既是受到气候变化和空气污染影响的重点区域,又是落实应对气候变化和大气污染防控政策的关键主体。在城市尺度上研究减污降碳政策的协同效应及其时空异质化的影响规律,将为因地制宜地制定减污降碳政策提供依据。本研究分析了2012—2019年我国284个地级市减污降碳协同效应指数的动态时空变化特征和规律;而后通过构建STIRPAT模型和地理时空加权回归（GTWR）模型,探讨了低碳政策、大气污染物防控政策、产业结构等驱动因素对减污降碳协同效应的时空异质化影响机制。结果表明：全国主要地级市耦合协调度指数平均值由2012年的0.79增加至2019年的0.85,环京津冀区域、汾渭平原等京津冀大气污染传输通道城市区域耦合协调度指数显著提高。以低碳试点城市为代表的区域,其降碳政策、减污政策、产业结构、人口规模、城镇化水平以及技术投入对减污降碳协同效应的影响存在显著的空间异质性。华北平原城市群作为大气污染防治的重点区域,主要通过减污政策提高协同效益;低碳政策主要在京津冀城市群、长江中游以及东南沿海地区城市发挥作用;中西部城市则主要通过产业结构调整、加大技术投入实现协同效益。最后,基于此提出促进城市减污降碳协同效益的对策建议。     

Comparing forest fragmentation and its drivers in China and the USA with Globcover v2.2

Forest loss and fragmentation are of major concern to the international community, in large part because they impact so many important environmental processes. The main objective of this study was to assess the differences in forest fragmentation patterns and drivers between China and the conterminous United States (USA). Using the latest 300-m resolution global land cover product, Globcover v2.2, a comparative analysis of forest fragmentation patterns and drivers was made. The fragmentation patterns were characterized by using a forest fragmentation model built on the sliding window analysis technique in association with landscape indices. Results showed that China’s forests were substantially more fragmented than those of the USA. This was evidenced by a large difference in the amount of interior forest area share, with China having 48% interior forest versus the 66% for the USA. China’s forest fragmentation was primarily attributed to anthropogenic disturbances, driven particularly by agricultural expansion from an increasing and large population, as well as poor forest management practices. In contrast, USA forests were principally fragmented by natural land cover types. However, USA urban sprawl contributed more to forest fragmentation than in China. This is closely tied to the USA’s economy, lifestyle and institutional processes. Fragmentation maps were generated from this study, which provide valuable insights and implications regarding habitat planning for rare and endangered species. Such maps enable development of strategic plans for sustainable forest management by identifying areas with high amounts of human-induced fragmentation, which improve risk assessments and enable better targeting for protection and remediation efforts. Because forest fragmentation is a long-term, complex process that is highly related to political, institutional, economic and philosophical arenas, both nations need to take effective and comprehensive measures to mitigate the negative effects of forest loss and fragmentation on the existing forest ecosystems.     

The Relationship Between Environmental Concern and Acceptability of Environmental Impacts among Visitors to Two U.S. National Park Settings

This study examined the relationship between environmental concern and ratings of acceptability of environmental impacts among visitors at two national park settings. Based on the concept of a social ecological paradigm shift, it was hypothesized that individuals with greater levels of environmental concern are less accepting of environmental impacts in national parks than individuals with lesser degrees of concern. Sample data came from Cape Lookout National Seashore (N=392) and Moores Creek National Battlefield (N=236), two national park units in the south-eastern U.S.A. Environmental concern was measured by the New Ecological Paradigm scale. Acceptability was measured by visitor responses to 25 items covering different types of environmental park impacts. Analysis of variance and Tukey's means comparison procedure were used to test for differences between groups defined by levels of environmental concern on impact acceptability. Significant relationships were found between environmental concern and 15 of the 25 specific impacts in the Cape Lookout sample and 13 significant relationships were found in the Moores Creek sample. However, the relationships between environmental concern and acceptability varied somewhat across the two samples. These findings suggested that individuals with greater environmental concern were less accepting (or tolerant) of certain types of park impacts, while individuals with lesser degrees of environmental concern were more accepting of certain park impacts. Differences across the study settings were attributed to the different orientations of park visitors between the two national park units and recency effects. While the data reported are preliminary, they should be informative for park management purposes, particularly in the determination of standards for park impacts.     

A landscape vulnerability analysis method proposal and its integration in the EIA

Landscape is the area primarily affected by proposed human projects. The prediction and evaluation of the potential anthropogenic impacts under Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is therefore one of the major environmental tools for prevention of any deteriorative or destructive actions. To conduct EIA properly requires inclusion of a determination of landscape vulnerability which expresses the possible landscape reaction to impacts of any exogenous factors. When it is designated correctly, the suitable human activities are determined more accurately. Even though many techniques for this have been suggested worldwide, lots of deficiencies have surfaced in their application. This paper presents a method for landscape vulnerability analysis which consists of qualitative evaluation of landscape receptors, their scoring, the vulnerability degree calculation, and overall reliability evaluation. The method proposed can improve the impact objectivity of prediction and evaluation and the suggestion of precise mitigation measures with the purpose of achieving sustainable landscape management.     

Environmental performance of urban roadside traders in Jos,Nigeria

In the last ten years official location policy in Nigeria for urban roadside traders, an enterprising group of urban poor operating at the lowest level of the informal sector of the economy has been very negative. Government believes that they should be removed from the streets and tucked away in obscure locations because of their tendency to deface the streets with litter and for causing vehicular and pedestrian traffic congestion. This paper identifies and assesses the magnitude of pollution created by the traders as a prelude to evolving a planning policy and strategy for regulating and formally accommodating street traders in good locations while still ensuring good environmental quality.     

Living on the edge of stagnant water: An assessment of environmental impacts of construction-phase drainage congestion along Dhaka city flood control embankment,Bangladesh

Environmental impacts of the construction-phase drainage congestion along the Dhaka City Flood Control Embankment were assessed by a pilot questionnaire survey (in 1991) among the target population adjacent to the embankment. The results of the survey indicated that, despite significant alleviation of river flooding, the majority of the respondents experienced a new type of flood problem in the form of stagnant water inside the embankment, immediately following its construction. Not only had this stagnant water flooded and damaged their property, it had exposed them to a number of other environmental problems, such as accumulation of municipal sewage, foul odors, mosquitoes, and growth of water hyacinth. The study found that the respondents' assessments of these environmental problems differed significantly according to the magnitude of the impact of stagnant water upon two subgroups within the target population. A postsurvey follow-up in 1994 indicated that this problem of drainage congestion had largely been alleviated by completing the construction of a number of drainage regulators. The study concludes by stressing the importance of synchronizing the construction of drainage structures with that of the embankment systems and by underlining policy implications for flood-vulnerable land use adjacent to embankments.     

The use of aggregate complaints data as an indicator of cumulative social impacts of mining: A case study from the Hunter valley,NSW, Australia

Generally speaking, there is a greater amount of quantitative data available to measure and model the cumulative environmental or economic impacts of mining than the social impacts. In part, this is because social impacts are often inherently more difficult to quantify, but historically there have also been fewer regulatory drivers for companies or state agencies to invest in collecting such data. Regulators in some jurisdictions are now starting to require resource companies to report on aspects of their social performance, but companies and regulators are still struggling to identify appropriate metrics, particularly in regards to cumulative impacts. This paper describes an innovative quantitative approach to tracking how communities experience and respond to increased mining activity, using data from the complaints registers maintained by mines located in the Upper Hunter Valley in New South Wales, Australia. In this study, complaints lodged with five separate mines adjacent to the township of Muswellbrook over several years were aggregated and trends analysed. The aggregated set showed that complaint frequency increased with the increase in mining activity but then decreased as individual complaints were addressed. However, when complaints from near-neighbours were removed, it emerged that the proportion of complaints that came from the town itself steadily increased over time. Further analysis indicated that this increase was closely associated with the amount of mine-disturbed land that could be seen from the town over time, as measured using a combination of remotely sensed data and a digital elevation model. This is persuasive evidence of a cumulative social impact that is more than just the sum of the local impacts of individual mines.     

From concept to practice: Implementing cumulative impact assessment in New Zealand

In 1991, provisions for environmental impact assessment in New Zealand were changed significantly with the enactment of the Resource Management Act. Among other provisions, this act requires consideration of cumulative impacts in environmental assessment activities undertaken by planners in newly created regional authorities and district and city councils. The institutional context in which the act is being implemented offers both opportunities and constraints to cumulative impact assessment. A lack of methods for CIA is a recognized problem. However, methods that have been developed for environmental impact assessments can be modified to incorporate second-, third-, and fourth-order impacts as well as to identify the direction and magnitude of additive and synergistic impacts. Layered matrices and combined networks are examples of such methods. While they do not allow for scientific prediction, they do provide the practitioner with the ability to consider the cumulative impacts of decisions. This is crucial in New Zealand, where statutory requirements are ahead of established methodologies.     

Integrated Approach for Prioritizing Watersheds for Management: A Study of Lidder Catchment of Kashmir Himalayas

The Himalayan watersheds are susceptible to various forms of degradation due to their sensitive and fragile ecological disposition coupled with increasing anthropogenic disturbances. Owing to the paucity of appropriate technology and financial resources, the prioritization of watersheds has become an inevitable process for effective planning and management of natural resources. Lidder catchment constitutes a segment of the western Himalayas with an area of 1,159.38 km². The study is based on integrated analysis of remote sensing, geographic information system, field study, and socioeconomic data. Multicriteria evaluation of geophysical, land-use and land-cover (LULC) change, and socioeconomic indicators is carried out to prioritize watersheds for natural resource conservation and management. Knowledge-based weights and ranks are normalized, and weighted linear combination technique is adopted to determine final priority value. The watersheds are classified into four priority zones (very high priority, high priority, medium priority, and low priority) on the basis of quartiles of the priority value, thus indicating their ecological status in terms of degradation caused by anthropogenic disturbances. The correlation between priority ranks of individual indicators and integrated indicators is drawn. The results reveal that socioeconomic indicators are the most important drivers of LULC change and environmental degradation in the catchment. Moreover, the magnitude and intensity of anthropogenic impact is not uniform in different watersheds of Lidder catchment. Therefore, any conservation and management strategy must be formulated on the basis of watershed prioritization.     

Predictive model for areas with illegal landfills using logistic regression

The existence of illegal landfills is an environmental problem in most countries. However, research on this issue is scarce and limited by the availability and quality of data on the subject. Thus, most illegal landfill studies have only been conducted in a partial manner, focusing on geographical aspects or the causes of these landfills (lack of environmental awareness, inadequate waste management systems, and the role of local government). This research analyses a sample of 120 possible areas with illegal landfills in Andalusia using logistic regression in order to obtain a predictive model for the occurrence of these landfills, including both types of variables (geographical and behavioural) jointly. The results confirm that the variables that most influence the occurrence of illegal landfills are spatial (“Industrial Land”, “Plains” and “Rural Land”); whilst the variables that most reduce the likelihood of illegal landfills are those related to certain characteristics of the municipal waste management system and environmental awareness, such as “Availability of Recycling Facilities”, “Punitive Policies”, “Supervision” and “Awareness-raising Campaigns”. The model obtained shows that variables of very different nature and magnitude interact in the occurrence of illegal landfills, each of which contributes a series of features characteristic of its scale. It is advisable, therefore, to perform an analysis using a multi-scale approach in order to gain an overall understanding of the phenomenon.