Climate change in Asia: issues and policy options

This article provides a brief review of some of the policy issues facing the Asian region with respect to climate change and its economic consequences. The environmental consequences of Asia's economic rise threaten the future growth of the region. Despite recent economic expansion, Asia will be one of the areas of the world most vulnerable to climate change. While Asia currently contributes moderately to greenhouse gas emissions, the potential for increases in emissions is significant. National and regional policy options, including abatement and adaptation, are examined as strategies for tackling the likely effects of climate change. This study recommends that national initiatives that have no 'regrets' properties be a priority area for further research so that they can be implemented as soon as possible. It is envisaged that in the short to medium term, identifiable no regrets policies can be a useful tool for reducing emissions and vulnerability to climate change in developing regions such as Asia.     

Cost-effective control of SO2 emissions in Asia

Despite recent efforts to limit the growth of SO(2) emissions in Asia, the negative environmental effects of sulphur emissions are likely to further increase in the future. This paper presents an extension of the RAINS-Asia integrated assessment model for acidification in Asia with an optimisation routine that can be used to identify cost-effective emission control strategies that achieve environmental targets for ambient SO(2) concentrations and sulphur deposition at least costs. Example scenarios developed with this optimisation module demonstrate a potential for significant cost savings in Asia, if emission controls are allocated to those sources that have the largest environmental impact and are cheapest to control. It is shown that strategies that simultaneously address harmful population exposure and the risk of vegetation damage from acid deposition result in the most cost-effective use of resources spent for emission controls.     

Acid Deposition and Integrated Zoning Control in China

China's rapidly growing economy is coupled with the consumption of large amounts of coal. An energy mix dominated by coal and inefficient energy utilization processes have led to increasingly serious problems of acid rain and sulfur dioxide pollution. Moreover, trends in the emissions of acidifying air pollutants lead to predictions of a very serious acid deposition problem in the future. In the absence of mitigating actions, these trends foretell a future of increasingly detrimental impacts to ecosystems in China and, potentially, to ecosystems in neighboring countries. China has implemented a two control zone (TCZ) policy, resulting in the establishment of acid rain and sulfur dioxide control zones, in an attempt to implement a cost-effective approach to mitigating acid deposition problems. While some short-term successes have resulted from management actions associated with the TCZ policy, it is clear additional measures and new policy directions are needed to reverse worsening acid deposition problems in the long term. To this end the following recommendations are presented: adjusting the primary energy mix, placing a greater emphasis on abating the effects of acid deposition, concentrating pollution control on large point sources, implementing an emission permit system for coal-fired power plants, utilizing an integrated approach in designing and evaluating control measures, and developing a greater research capacity. Research strategies must be developed that will lead to: (1) an improved scientific understanding of the sources of acidifying pollutants, their associated migration patterns, and their impacts; and (2) an identification of cost-effective mitigating strategies for the entire country.     

Disaggregated energy consumption,environment, and economic growth nexus of emerging South and East Asian Countries: An ARDL approach

This study examines the nexus between disaggregated energy consumption (EC), CO₂ emissions, and economic growth in emerging South and East Asian countries over the period of 1994 to 2019. The long-run equilibrium relationship is determined by using the “Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model” and the “Generalized least square (GLS) technique.” The panel causality test developed by “Dumitrescu and Hurlin, 2012” determines the direction of causation between variables. Disaggregated EC and CO₂ emissions positively affect economic growth in the research. The PMG estimate also validates the GLS findings, which produce the same results as the PMG estimation. To check the robustness, we also use FMOLS and DOLS estimators. The results confirm the feedback hypothesis for South and East Asian nations regarding energy uses, CO₂ emissions, and economic growth. In contrast, there is unidirectional causality between industrial development and economic growth. These findings will help governments in South and East Asia craft effective energy policy regulations for their financial institutions.     

Sustaining Asia's groundwater boom: An overview of issues and evidence

This article suggests that Asia’s groundwater socio‐ecology is at an impasse. Rapid growth in groundwater irrigation in South Asia and the North China plains during the period 1970–95 has been the main driver of the agrarian boom in these regions. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and China account for the bulk of the world’s use of groundwater in agriculture. On the plus side, groundwater development has provided sustenance to agrarian economies and millions of rural livelihoods. On the downside, it has created chronic problems of resource depletion and quality deterioration. While problems of groundwater depletion, pollution and quality deterioration are indeed serious, so are the consequences of the degradation of the resource for those that have come to precariously depend upon groundwater irrigation. Three problems currently afflict groundwater use: depletion due to overdraft; water logging and salinization; and pollution due to agricultural, industrial and other human activity. The pathology of the decline in groundwater socio‐ecology reflects a remarkably similar pattern across regions. The critical issue for Asia now is: what might be done to sustain and revive these groundwater socio‐ecologies vital to the region’s economy? This article reviews a variety of techno‐institutional approaches. However, transposing lessons from the industrialized world uncritically in the Asian context may not work. A more nuanced understanding of the peculiarities of Asia’s groundwater socio‐ecology is needed.     

Energy consumption trends in high growth Asian economies before and after 1986

In 1986, world oil prices declined sharply. Lower oil prices have been favourable to economic growth and price stability in Asia. However, oil consumption has also been growing rapidly in developing Asian countries including those dependent on imported oil. The increasing dependence on oil as a source of energy since 1986 is a striking reversal of the previous trend. In their pursuit of rapid industrialization, Asian countries have neglected energy conservation and diversification strategies. Unless energy policy is redirected, countries like Korea, Thailand and the Philippines could be seriously hurt by a sharp rise in oil prices. An increase in oil prices is almost inevitable in the next few years.     

A bioeconomic model for estimating the benefits of acid rain abatement to Salmon fishing: a case study in South West Scotland

The United Kingdom, under the Large Combustion Plant Directive of the European Community, is committed to cutting sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions by 60% of 1980 levels by the year 2003. In order to justify this action and to support new decisions on further emission reductions, policy makers require knowledge of the economic benefits of abatement. Benefit estimates for the recovery of freshwater fish populations present difficulties since the effect of reduced acid deposition on environmental processes is complex and because fishery records are often inadequate or absent. This paper predicts the economic benefits of acid rain abatement to the rod and line salmon fishery of Galloway, South West Scotland. It achieves this by linking output on long term changes in water chemistry and fish population status from MAGIC, a process based catchment model for acidification, with catch and market value data. Predicted increases in the market value of the fishery are presented and the role of the model in economic analysis of environmental policy discussed.     

Environmental regulation of exploration and mining operations in Asian countries

This paper offers a new perspective on the environmental laws in Asian nations affecting the exploration, mining, and reclamation activities of the mineral resource industry: the perspective of the senior government officials in those countries, whose job is to enforce these new environmental laws. The article presents the results of a 1998 survey of national environmental officials in Asia conducted by the Colorado School of Mines and the Metal Mining Agency of Japan. Officials in 10 diverse countries—Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Mongolia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam—responded to a detailed questionnaire covering applicable laws, agencies, protected areas, covered mineral activities, financial assurance, environmental impact assessment, public involvement, environmental standards, permit and reclamation requirements.
The survey confirms that Asian nations are part of the global trend towards national government regulatory structures that balance mineral development objectives with environmental considerations. The survey also shows developing regulatory systems (some embryonic, some more mature) utilizing a combination of mining and environmental acts, and often an 'insider' perspective of the national officials administering the laws. While that perspective is not without its biases (not least the rigor of enforcement), it may nevertheless be of use in company planning. The emerging regulatory picture contradicts the conventional notion that it is the 'lower' level of regulation in Asia that is attracting foreign direct investment in mining.     

Identifying the major players behind increasing global carbon dioxide emissions: a decomposition analysis

The paper using data on 114 countries during 1992–2004 identifies the major perpetrators of escalating global emissions. Using the LMDI decomposition technique, we examine the contribution of the major factors in changing the level of emissions. The effect of GDP on emission is found to be substantially more than that of population. However, the income effect shows high fluctuation over time, while the population effect has been roughly constant. The upper middle-income countries, particularly of Europe and Central Asia, despite high economic growth have reduced their emissions substantially, while in the countries of North America, East Asia Pacific and South Asia increase in income have been significantly accompanied by increase in emission. Apart from few low emitting countries, almost all others have been successful in increasing emission efficiency, but their energy efficiencies have not been remarkable. Although emission efficiency has been more instrumental in curtailing emission, in some cases the path of change in emission follows that of change in energy intensity. Thus, both energy and emission intensity have crucial roles in determining the level of emissions. It may be suggested that emphasis should be given on policies oriented towards sufficient counteractive energy and emission efficiencies before embarking on a path towards economic growth.     

四川省酸性降水范围,趋势预测及其对农作物,蔬菜生长影响估损

本文在综述四川酸性降水范围、发展趋势预测的基础上，根据野外调查、现场考察和有关资料，阐述了酸雨形成的多种污染源及其对农业生态系统的危害。着重分析和论证了酸沉降（含酸雨、酸雾）对农作蔬菜的影响，并对酸沉降形成的主要几种污染影响范围和造成的经济损失采用分项估算法。估算公式为：Ｓ农损＝Ｄ粮损×ｇ×Ｊ＋Ｅ蔬损×ｇ×Ｊ＋Ｆ油损×ｇ×Ｊ，式中Ｄ、Ｅ、Ｆ分别代表粮食、蔬菜、油菜受酸沉降污染危害影响面积，ｇ为每亩面积减产数量，Ｊ为单位产量价格。根据公式估算，经济损失为０５９－０６６亿元／年，取平均值≈Ｓ农损，总共为０６３亿元／年。     

Energy Conservation in Rapid-Growth Economies of Asia

Energy demand, including demand for petroleum, is expected to increase at a faster rate in the rapidly-developing nations of East and Southeast Asia than elsewhere in the world through the turn of the century. In the aggregate, the countries of this region are heavily dependent on imported oil, coal and natural gas. Rapid industrialization, electrification and increased consumer demand for energy-consuming durable goods and housing underlie the expected strong growth in energy consumption. Substantial scope for greater economy in energy-use exists in the industrial and transport sectors but effects in these areas will require effective management and institutional support in addition to getting prices right. In the context of balance of payments and external debt considerations, and the continued growth of energy consumption in East and Southeast Asia, improving energy conservation will be of great importance in lessening the likelihood that future economic development will be constrained by energy problems.     

Re-evaluating energy efficiency in China

Energy efficiency is a sensible scheme for saving money, conserving natural resources and reducing CO2 emissions. However, incentives for energy conservation vary greatly between different nations. Energy prices are the key to energy conservation, many observers argue. This paper focuses on one of the world's most rapidly developing energy consumers -- China -- and contemplates the current and future impact of energy prices on China's energy-efficient behaviour.     

RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES: THE CASE OF BRAZIL

Industrial nations have based their economic and social development on the use of fossil fuels (coal, petroleum and natural gas). This trend is being followed by many developing countries which have neither the natural resources nor the manpower to adopt this path. As a result one finds in many of these countries 'islands of prosperity' (based on consumption patterns copied from industrial nations) surrounded by a 'sea of poverty.' The problems resulting from this dual social structure are obvious in many parts of the world. It is argued here that renewable energy sources are a natural basis for the development of the poorer countries and that intelligent use of hydropower, biomass and direct solar energy can shortcut many of the problems faced today by industrial nations. The case of Brazil is analyzed as one of the countries in which these solutions are being tried.     

Redistributing the world's wealth: Cancun ‘summit’ discord

The aim of the North-South ‘summit’ conference in 1981 was to bridge the wealth gap between the few industrial nations and the hundred-odd poor countries. Unfortunately no firm proposals materialized. The rich nations refused to increase their aid transfers to the developing countries or to correct the growing inequalities in world trade. The multiplication of wealth is the basic concern of the North in an era of recession and unemployment. The division of wealth is an urgent necessity for the South, but their demands for a global reallocation of resources remained unmet. The gap is likely to widen considerably in future.     

Environmental evaluation of transfer and treatment of excess pig slurry by life cycle assessment

Slurry management is a central topic in the agronomic and environmental analysis of intensive livestock production systems. The objective of this study is to compare the environmental performance of two scenarios of collective slurry management for the disposal of excess nitrogen from animal manure. The scenarios are the transfer of slurry and its injection to crop land, and the treatment of slurry in a collective biological treatment station. The study is based on a real case in the West of France, where a group of farmers is developing a collective plan for the disposal of almost 7000 m(3) of excess pig slurry. The evaluation is carried out by Life Cycle Assessment, where emissions and resource consumption are quantified and aggregated into four environmental impact categories: eutrophication, acidification, climate change, and non-renewable energy use. Ammonia emitted is the most important contributor to acidification and eutrophication, while methane contributes most to climate change. Both ammonia and methane are mostly emitted during the storage of slurry and, in the case of the treatment scenario, also during composting the solid fraction of the slurry. The two management strategies are similar with respect to climate change, whereas eutrophication and acidification are twice as large for treatment relative to transfer. Electricity needed for the treatment process is the main contributor to non-renewable energy use for the treatment scenario, while the transfer scenario represents a net energy saving, as energy saved by the reduction of mineral fertiliser use more than compensates for the energy needed for transport and injection of slurry. The overall environmental performance of transfer is better than that of treatment, as it involves less acidification, eutrophication and non-renewable energy use. The method employed and the results obtained in this study can provide elements for a transparent discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of contrasting excess slurry management scenarios as well as the identification of the main aspects determining their environmental performance.     

The Asia-Pacific petroleum market

The late 1980s saw an astonishing turnaround in the Asian oil market. After years of stagnation, three main factors - economic dynamism, lower oil prices and reduced government regulation of the market - resulted in a consumption surge that surprised even those analysts who had predicted such a recovery. The chronically capacity-surplus refining industry saw a leap in profitability, and new construction began. Rapid demand growth spread from the middle distillates to such formerly depressed products as gasoline and fuel oil, and naphtha markets began to expand again as the petrochemical industry resumed rapid growth. At the same time that demand has been rising and demand patterns have been shifting, other changes have begun. A new environmental awareness has taken root in Asia, and new environmental standards are being set almost daily, not only in the richer countries of East Asia, but also in many of the region's developing nations. Unfortunately, traditional sources of low-sulphur oil for power generation may be limited in the coming decade. Despite many new discoveries within the region, Asian crude availability is shrinking, both in terms of availability on the international market and in terms of percentage contribution to regional oil demand. After years of decreasing reliance, the region will face rapid increases in imports from the Persian Gulf in the 1990s.     

The use of critical loads maps to assess the effects of sulphur pollution control policies on nature conservation sites in England

Maps showing the critical loads for soil acidification and their exceedence produced by the UK Department of the Environment were examined for the potential impacts on nature conservation in England. Consideration was given to modelled depositions in 2005, after full implementation of the EC Large Combustion Plant Directive (i.e. a 60% reduction in UK sulphur emissions from 1980 levels). A second scenario was also examined, in which the remaining deposition was further reduced by 50% (i.e. an 80% reduction from 1980 levels). No examination was made of the impacts of present day deposition. Critical load exceedence maps for soil acidification were studied at the 1 km square scale for all of England. All SSSIs in England within squares where the critical load will remain exceeded were identified; geological SSSIs were excluded. In these squares 736 biological SSSIs were found to occur. The special interest for 136 of these was not considered to be susceptible to soil acidification damage. The remaining 600 sites are, therefore, considered to be at risk from continued acidification. The 600 sites represent 16.3% of the total number of SSSIs in England. The actual ‘exceeded’ area on these sites was found to represent 26.2% of the total SSSI area of Britain. If emissions are further reduced by 50% the proportions drop to 6.8% and 15.6% respectively. The sites are located throughout England, especially in upland areas of the north and west. However, a large number of sites also occur on exceeded areas on the dry acidic soils of southern and eastern parts of the country. These sites exhibit a wide range of habitat types. Most common are woodlands, peatlands and heathlands. A significant proportion of the nature conservation resource of England will remain at risk from acidification even after full implementation of existing UK government policy commitments. Even a major reduction beyond that commitment is not sufficient to prevent exceedence of critical loads on 250 of these SSSIs. Protection of Britain's natural environment would, therefore, require a very significant reduction in acid emissions beyond that which is currently agreed.     

Environmental attitudes in less developed countries

Environmental policies in the developing countries are the product of circumstances quite different from those found in advanced nations. As a result, such policies have thus far been rather permissive. There is, however, considerable variance among developing countries in this respect, as well as substantial change over time. Not much evidence has been uncovered pointing to a migration of industry and mining to ‘pollution havens’ in developing countries—the reverse in fact seems to be the case. Nevertheless, it is likely that environmental policies will remain less stringent in developingthan developed countries for the foreseeable future. Indeed, the gap may well widen substantially.     

Oil and gas reserves of the Middle East and North Africa

A quantitative estimate of the petroleum reserves of the Middle East and North Africa is presented and analysed in terms of the region's ability to meet current market demand for a sweet light crude. Costs of Middle East production are compared with those of other oil-producing regions. With an average costs of US$4/bbl, the Middle East has both the largest oil reserves and the lowest cost oil in the world. While new and improved technology of exploration and production may lessen this price advantage in the future, it will not eliminate it. Because of these two factors, the Middle East will continue to play an important role on the world energy stage well into the next century.     

Cement replacement by sugar cane bagasse ash: CO2 emissions reduction and potential for carbon credits

This paper presents a study of cement replacement by sugar cane bagasse ash (SCBA) in industrial scale aiming to reduce the CO₂ emissions into the atmosphere. SCBA is a by-product of the sugar/ethanol agro-industry abundantly available in some regions of the world and has cementitious properties indicating that it can be used together with cement. Recent comprehensive research developed at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro/Brazil has demonstrated that SCBA maintains, or even improves, the mechanical and durability properties of cement-based materials such as mortars and concretes. Brazil is the world’s largest sugar cane producer and being a developing country can claim carbon credits. A simulation was carried out to estimate the potential of CO₂ emission reductions and the viability to issue certified emission reduction (CER) credits. The simulation was developed within the framework of the methodology established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The State of São Paulo (Brazil) was chosen for this case study because it concentrates about 60% of the national sugar cane and ash production together with an important concentration of cement factories. Since one of the key variables to estimate the CO₂ emissions is the average distance between sugar cane/ethanol factories and the cement plants, a genetic algorithm was developed to solve this optimization problem. The results indicated that SCBA blended cement reduces CO₂ emissions, which qualifies this product for CDM projects.