Modeling Long-Term Risk to Environmental and Human Systems at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation: Scope and Findings from the Initial Model

The Groundwater Protection Project at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site in Washington State is currently developing the means to assess the cumulative impact to human and ecological health and the regional economy and cultures from radioactive and chemical waste that will remain at the Hanford Site after the site closes. This integrated system is known as the System Assessment Capability (SAC). The SAC Risk/Impact Module discussed in the article uses media- and time-specific concentrations of contaminants estimated by the transport models of the integrated system to project potential impacts on the ecology of the Columbia River corridor, the health of persons who might live in or use the corridor or the upland Hanford environment, the local economy, and cultural resources. Preliminary Monte Carlo realizations from the SAC modeling system demonstrate the feasibility of large-scale uncertainty analysis of the complex relationships in the environmental transport of contaminants on the one hand and ecological, human, cultural, and economic risk on the other. Initial impact results show very small long-term risks for the 10 radionuclides and chemicals evaluated. The analysis also helps determine science priorities to reduce uncertainty and suggests what actions matter to reduce risks.     

Value‐oriented impact assessment: the economics of a new approach to impact assessment

Environmental Impact Assessment has gained a prominent position as a tool to evaluate the environmental effects of economic activities. However, all approaches proposed so far use a burden‐oriented logic. They concentrate on the different environmental impacts in order to ascertain the overall environmental damage caused by economic activity. This paper argues that such a burden‐oriented view is (a) hampered by a series of methodological shortcomings which hinders its widespread use in practice; and (b) is analytically incomplete. The paper proposes a value‐oriented approach to impact assessment. For this purpose an economic analysis of the optimal use of environmental and social resources is conducted from both a burden‐oriented and a value‐oriented standpoint. The basic logic of a value‐oriented impact assessment is explained, as well as the resulting economic conditions for an optimal use of resources. In addition, it is shown that value‐ and burden‐oriented approaches are complementary to achieve optimality. Finally, the paper discusses the conditions under which the use of burden‐ or value‐oriented impact assessments is appropriate, respectively.     

The Impotence of Cumulative Effects Assessment in Canada: Ailments and Ideas for Redeployment

Cumulative effects assessment (CEA) in Canada is in dire straits. Despite a huge amount of talk and a flurry of developmental activity associated with CEA concepts, it has not lived up to its glowing promise of helping to achieve sustainability of diverse valued ecosystem components. This article aims to articulate that failure, to examine it in terms of six major problems with CEA, and to propose solutions. The six problem areas include (1) application of CEA in project-level environmental impact assessments (EIAs), (2) an EIA focus on project approval instead of environmental sustainability, (3) a general lack of understanding of ecologic impact thresholds, (4) separation of cumulative effects from project-specific impacts, (5) weak interpretations of cumulative effects by practitioners and analysts, and (6) inappropriate handling of potential future developments. We advocate improvements not only within the purview of project-specific EIAs, but also mainly in the domain of region-scale CEAs and regional environmental effects frameworks (or perhaps land use planning). Only then will the CEA begin to approach the promise of securing sustainability of valued ecosystem components.     

Assessing ecological risk on a regional scale

Society needs a quantitative and systematic way to estimate and compare the impacts of environmental problems that affect large geographic areas. This paper presents an approach for regional risk assessment that combines regional assessment methods and landscape ecology theory with an existing framework for ecological risk assessment. Risk assessment evaluates the effects of an environmental change on a valued natural resource and interprets the significance of those effects in light of the uncertainties identified in each component of the assessment process. Unique and important issues for regional risk assessment are emphasized; these include the definition of the disturbance scenario, the assessment boundary definition, and the spatial heterogeneity of the landscape. Although the research described in this article has been funded wholly or in part by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) through Interagency Agreement Number DW89932112-01-2 to the U.S. Department of Energy, it has not been subjected to EPA review and therefore does not necessarily reflect the views of EPA and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

浅谈如何做好建设项目环境影响评价与规划环境影响评价的联动

围绕建设项目环境影响评价和规划环境影响评价的特点,通过在评价思路、评价内容、评价方法等方面的比较,分析其差异,从而找到两者在评价时间、评价内容等方面的联动途径,以提高环境影响评价工作的效果和效率。     

天然气勘探开发项目综合环境影响评价指标体系研究

针对目前天然气勘探开发项目环境影响评价不够系统的局限性,运用系统的思想观点和思维方法提出了天然气勘探开发项目综合环境影响评价指标体系.该评价体系把综合环境影响评价分为政策法规环境影响、自然生态环境影响、资源能源环境影响、经济环境影响、社会环境影响和科技环境影响等六大环境影响进行评价.借鉴环境影响评价的相关研究成果,分别为上述六大环境影响评价设计了具体的评价因子和评价指标.     

Cumulative environmental change: Conceptual frameworks,evaluation approaches,and institutional perspectives

Cumulative environmental change or cumulative effects may result from the additive effect of individual actions of the same nature or the interactive effect of multiple actions of a different nature. This article reviews conceptual frameworks of cumulative environmental change and describes analytical and institutional approaches to cumulative effects assessment (CEA). A causal model is a common theoretical construct, although the frameworks vary in their emphasis on different components of the model. Two broad approaches to CEA are distinguished: one scientific and the other planning oriented. These approaches should not be interpreted as competing paradigms but rather different interpretations of the scope of CEA. Each approach can provide a distinct but complementary contribution to the analysis, assessment, and management of cumulative effects. A comparison of the institutional and legislative response to CEA in Canada and the United States shows that Canada is following the American example of incorporating the analysis and assessment of cumulative effects into regulatory actions and administrative procedures that also govern environmental impact assessment.     

A Critical Review of Environmental Impact Statements in Sri Lanka with Particular Reference to Ecological Impact Assessment

This article critically reviews environmental assessment (EA) practices in Sri Lanka, with a particular focus on ecology. An overview is provided of the domestic and international influences which have shaped the administrative process which is currently a two-tiered scheme. An Initial Environmental Examination (IEE) provides a preliminary screening tool, prior to the requirement for a full Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). A comprehensive survey of Sri Lankan national archives showed that 463 EAs were completed in the period 1981–2005, with the bulk of these in the more populated Western and North Western Provinces. Two-thirds were IEE surveys, while the remaining third advanced to full EIA. A representative sample of 130 EAs (both IEEs and full EIAs) spanning a broad range of project types, scales, and environmental settings was selected to evaluate the quality of the ecological investigations within the published environmental impact statements (EISs). These were assigned into five classes of “explanatory power”, on the basis of their scientific content in relation to survey, analysis, and reporting of ecological interests. Within most EISs, the ecological impact assessment (EcIA) was restricted to the lowest two categories of ecological assessment, i.e., tokenistic presentation of reconnaissance-level species lists without further analysis of the development implications for individual organisms or communities. None of the assessments reviewed provided statistically rigorous analysis, which would be required if ecological impact studies are to include quantitative and testable predictions of impact, which could then be followed up by appropriate post-impact monitoring programs. Attention to key local issues such as biodiversity or ecosystem services, which also have strong social dimensions in the developing world, was also notably underrepresented. It was thus concluded that despite the existence of a sound legislative framework in Sri Lanka, the analysis contained within EISs generally fails to convey meaningful information to the relevant stakeholders and decision makers involved in protecting ecological interests and promoting sustainable development. The introduction of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) is considered an important tool to strengthen the institutional capacity of Sri Lankan government to implement current regulations and, in particular, to combat the cumulative effects of incremental development.     

A regional environmental information system for analyzing and predicting the impacts of nonferrous mining on an agricultural environment

Mineral exploitation is a necessary component of China's economic development goals. Such exploitation brings with it the potential for serious environmental degradation. Careful environmental impact assessments of mining projects are required in order to implement China's environmental protection law and identify measures for protecting surrounding agricultural environments. This article describes an environmental information system that has been developed for the purpose of assisting with the environmental impact assessment of nonferrous mining operations with a particular focus on agricultural impacts. An application of the environmental information system to the Yongping copper mine, located in Jiangxi Province, is discussed. The role of the environmental information system is analyzing and predicting soil contamination from heavy metals and other types of impacts from this mining operation is described. The environmental information system is designed for implementation on an IBM PC/XT microcomputer. The experience gained from the Yongping copper mine application and the growing popularity of microcomputers in China indicate a significant potential for the effective use of a microcomputer-based environmental information system in other parts of China.     

Stochastic Watershed Water Quality Simulation for TMDL Development – A Case Study in the Newport Bay Watershed1

Abstract: Systematic consideration of uncertainty in data, model structure, and other factors is generally unaddressed in most Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) calculations. Our previous studies developed the Management Objectives Constrained Analysis of Uncertainty (MOCAU) approach as an uncertainty analysis technique specifically for watershed water quality models, based on a synthetic case. In this study, we applied MOCAU to analyze diazinon loading in the Newport Bay watershed (Southern California). The study objectives included (1) demonstrating the value of performing stochastic simulation and uncertainty analysis for TMDL development, using MOCAU as the technique and (2) evaluating the existing diazinon TMDL and generating insights for the development of scientifically sound TMDLs, considering uncertainty. The Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework model was used as an example of a complex watershed model. The study revealed the importance and feasibility of conducting stochastic watershed water quality simulation for TMDL development. The critical role of management objectives in a systematic uncertainty assessment was well demonstrated. The results of this study are intuitive to TMDL calculation, model structure improvement and sampling strategy design.     

Assessing impacts of introduced aquatic species: Grass carp in large systems

Introduced species have created environmental benefits and unanticipated disasters so a priori assessments of species introductions are needed for environmental management. A checklist for assessing impacts of introduced species was developed from studies of introduced species and recommendations for planning introductions. Sterile, triploid grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) are just beginning to be used as a biocontrol agent for the management of aquatic vegetation in open waterways. Potential impacts of grass carp in open systems were identified by reviewing grass carp biology relative to the impact assessment checklist. The potential consequences of introduced grass carp were reviewed for one case study. The case study demonstrated that conclusions about potential impacts and monitoring needs can be made despite incomplete information and uncertainty. Indicators of environmental impact and vulnerability of host systems were grouped into six categories: population control, hybridization, diseases and parasites, habitat alterations, biological effects, and management issues. Triploid grass carp can significantly alter habitat and biological resources through the secondary effects of reductions in aquatic vegetation. Potential impacts and significant uncertainties involve fish dispersions from plant control areas, inability to control vegetation loss, loss of diverse plant communities and their dependent species, and conflicts with human use of the water resource. Adequate knowledge existed to assess most potential consequences of releasing large numbers of triploid grass carp in Guntersville Reservoir, Alabama. However, the assessment of potential impacts indicated that moderate, incremental stockings combined with monitoring of vegetation and biological resources are necessary to control the effects of grass carp and achieve desirable, intermediate plant densities. Cooperators: Auburn University (Alabama Agricultural Experiment Station, Department of Fisheries and Allied Aquacultures, Department of Zoology and Wildlife Sciences), US Fish and Wildlife Service, Alabama Game and Fish Division, and the Wildlife Management Institute.     

A Framework for Fully Integrating Environmental Assessment

A new framework for environmental assessment is needed because no existing framework explicitly includes all types of environmental assessments. We propose a framework that focuses on resolving environmental problems by integrating different types of assessments. Four general types of assessments are included: (1) condition assessments to detect chemical, physical, and biological impairments; (2) causal pathway assessments to determine causes and identify their sources; (3) predictive assessments to estimate environmental, economic, and societal risks, and benefits associated with different possible management actions; and (4) outcome assessments to evaluate the results of the decisions of an integrative assessment. The four types of assessments can be neatly arrayed in a two-by-two matrix based on the direction of analysis of causal relationships (rows) and whether the assessment identifies problems or solves them (columns). We suggest that all assessments have a common structure of planning, analysis, and synthesis, thus simplifying terminology and facilitating communication between types of assessments and environmental programs. The linkage between assessments is based on intermediate decisions that initiate another assessment or a final decision signaling the resolution of the problem. The framework is applied to three cases: management of a biologically impaired river, remediation of a contaminated site, and reregistration of a pesticide. We believe that this framework clarifies the relationships among the various types of assessment processes and their links to specific decisions.     

From concept to practice: Implementing cumulative impact assessment in New Zealand

In 1991, provisions for environmental impact assessment in New Zealand were changed significantly with the enactment of the Resource Management Act. Among other provisions, this act requires consideration of cumulative impacts in environmental assessment activities undertaken by planners in newly created regional authorities and district and city councils. The institutional context in which the act is being implemented offers both opportunities and constraints to cumulative impact assessment. A lack of methods for CIA is a recognized problem. However, methods that have been developed for environmental impact assessments can be modified to incorporate second-, third-, and fourth-order impacts as well as to identify the direction and magnitude of additive and synergistic impacts. Layered matrices and combined networks are examples of such methods. While they do not allow for scientific prediction, they do provide the practitioner with the ability to consider the cumulative impacts of decisions. This is crucial in New Zealand, where statutory requirements are ahead of established methodologies.     

Including risk in stated-preference economic valuations: Experiments on choices for marine recreation

Stated-preference surveys for the economic valuation of environmental resources typically assume no uncertainty in the hypothetical valuation scenarios. However, the outcomes of environmental policies are uncertain. We explored the effects of including information on probabilities of attribute improvement and provision in choice experiments. Our results suggest that stating explicitly a high probability for the occurrence of the valuation scenario can improve the goodness of fit of choice models and the consistency of choices. As the general public becomes more aware of the uncertainty of environmental outcomes under global change, omitting information on scenario risk may contribute to hypothetical bias and impair the validity of stated-preference valuations.     

完善环境影响评价制度的思考

文章分析了环境影响评价制度的价值,我国环境影响评价制度存在的缺陷。提出我国环境影响评价制度的完善措施应为:拓宽环境影响评价对象范围,引进可替代方案,确保公众有效参与。