Modeling atmospheric nitrogen deposition and transport in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Atmospheric deposition of nitrate nitrogen and ammonium nitrogen has been identified as a major factor in the decline of water quality in the Chesapeake Bay. Reports have indicated that atmospheric deposition may account for 25 to 80% of the total nitrogen load entering the bay. However, uncertainties exist regarding the accuracy of the atmospheric deposition inputs, nitrogen retention coefficients, and in-stream nutrient uptake rates used in these studies. This project was designed to reassess the potential inputs of atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the bay through the use of a high-resolution wet deposition model, improved wet and dry deposition and nutrient retention estimates, existing soils and land use data, and geographic information systems software. Model results indicate that the methods used in previous studies may overestimate the contribution of atmospheric nitrate and ammonium deposition to the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW). Wet and dry atmospheric nitrate and ammonium nitrogen deposition estimates to the CBW ranged from 52.7 to 141.9 and 41.9 to 60.1 million kg/yr, respectively, between 1984 and 1996. Dry and total atmospheric deposition loads to the watershed are substantially less than previous estimates. Estimates of the percent contribution of atmospherically deposited nitrogen to the Chesapeake Bay represent between 20 and 32% of the total nitrate and ammonium nitrogen load to the watershed from all nitrogen sources. While these estimates are lower than many other published estimates, regression analysis of model parameters, nitrogen retention coefficients, output, and measured in-stream nitrogen loads indicate that the calculated nitrogen loads may still be too high.     

TMDL Balance: A Model for Coastal Water Pollutant Loadings

Bacterial contamination accounts for more than 60% of the impairments included on the 2008 Texas 303(d) List. Many of these bacterial impairments are along the Texas Gulf Coast because coastal waters often are regulated for oyster harvesting, which have strict water quality standards. Under the Clean Water Act, each one of these impaired waterbodies requires a total maximum daily load (TMDL) study to be performed. A recent, statewide study recommended the development and application of simple modeling approaches to address the majority of Texas's bacteria TMDLs, including “… simple load duration curve, GIS [geographic information systems], and/or mass balance models.” We developed the TMDL Balance model in response to this recommendation. TMDL Balance is a steady state, mass balance, GIS‐based model for simulating pollutant loads and concentrations in coastal systems. The model uses plug‐flow reactor and continuously‐stirred tank reactor equations to route spatially distributed point and nonpoint source loads through a watershed via overland flow, non‐tidal flow, and tidal flow, decaying the loads via first‐order kinetics. In this paper, we explain the development of the watershed loading portion of the TMDL Balance model, demonstrating the methodology through a case study: computing bacterial loads in the Copano Bay watershed of southeast Texas. The application highlights an example of distributing bacterial sources spatially based on land use data.     

Development and Application of the 2010 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Total Maximum Daily Load Model

The Phase 5.3 Watershed Model simulates the Chesapeake watershed land use, river flows, and the associated transport and fate of nutrient and sediment loads to the Chesapeake Bay. The Phase 5.3 Model is the most recent of a series of increasingly refined versions of a model that have been operational for more than two decades. The Phase 5.3 Model, in conjunction with models of the Chesapeake airshed and estuary, provides estimates of management actions needed to protect water quality, achieve Chesapeake water quality standards, and restore living resources. The Phase 5.3 Watershed Model tracks nutrient and sediment load estimates of the entire 166,000 km² watershed, including loads from all six watershed states. The creation of software systems, input datasets, and calibration methods were important aspects of the model development process. A community model approach was taken with model development and application, and the model was developed by a broad coalition of model practitioners including environmental engineers, scientists, and environmental managers. Among the users of the Phase 5.3 Model are the Chesapeake watershed states and local governments, consultants, river basin commissions, and universities. Development and application of the model are described, as well as key scenarios ranging from high nutrient and sediment load conditions if no management actions were taken in the watershed, to low load estimates of an all‐forested condition.     

Response of Nitrogen Loading to the Chesapeake Bay to Source Reduction and Land Use Change Scenarios: A SPARROW‐Informed Analysis

In response to concerns regarding the health of streams and receiving waters, the United States Environmental Protection Agency established a total maximum daily load for nitrogen in the Chesapeake Bay watershed for which practices must be in place by 2025 resulting in an expected 25% reduction in load from 2009 levels. The response of total nitrogen (TN) loads delivered to the Bay to nine source reduction and land use change scenarios was estimated using a Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes model. The largest predicted reduction in TN load delivered to the Bay was associated with a scenario in which the mass of TN as fertilizer applied to agricultural lands was decreased. A 25% decrease in the mass of TN applied as fertilizer resulted in a predicted reduction in TN loading to the Bay of 11.3%, which was 2.5–5 times greater than the reductions predicted by other scenarios. Eliminating fertilizer application to all agricultural land in the watershed resulted in a predicted reduction in TN load to the Bay of 45%. It was estimated that an approximate 25% reduction in TN loading to the Bay could be achieved by eliminating fertilizer applied to the 7% of subwatersheds contributing the greatest fertilizer‐sourced TN loads to the Bay. These results indicate that management strategies aimed at decreasing loading from a small number of subwatersheds may be effective for reducing TN loads to the Bay, and similar analyses are possible in other watersheds.     

Nitrogen loads through baseflow, stormflow, and underflow to Rehoboth Bay, Delaware

A detailed study of water and nitrogen (N) discharge from a small, representative subwatershed of Rehoboth Bay, Delaware, was conducted to determine total N loads to the bay. The concentrations of ammonium (NH4(+)), nitrate + nitrite (NO3(-) + NO2(-)), and dissolved and particulate organic N were determined in baseflow and storm waters discharging from Bundicks Branch from October 1998 to April 2002. A novel hydrographic separation model that accounts for significant decreases in baseflow during storm events was developed to estimate N loads during unsampled storms. Nitrogen loads based on gauged flows alone (7100-19,100 kg/yr) significantly underestimated those based on land use-land cover (LULC) and estimated N export factors from different classes of LULC (32,000-40,600 kg/yr). However, when ungauged underflow and associated N loads were included in the total loads (25,500-33,800 kg/yr), there was much better agreement with LULC export models. This suggests that in permeable coastal plain sediments, underflow contributes significantly to N fluxes to estuarine receiving waters, particularly in drier years. Based on the similarity in LULC, N loads from the Bundicks Branch subwatershed were used to estimate upland loads to the entire Rehoboth Bay Watershed (259,000-316,000 kg/yr). These N loads from the watershed were much greater than those from direct atmospheric deposition (49,000-64,500 kg/yr) and from a local wastewater treatment plant (9700-13,700 kg/yr). While the watershed was the principal source of N at all times during the year, the relative contributions from the watershed, wastewater, and direct atmospheric deposition varied predictably with season.     

Monitored and Modeled Correlations of Sediment and Nutrients with Chesapeake Bay Water Clarity

This article analyzes the correlations of the observed and modeled light attenuation coefficient, Kd, with in situ total suspended solids (TSS) and chlorophyll‐a concentrations in Chesapeake Bay (CB) tidal waters, and with sediment and nutrient loads from the Chesapeake watershed. Light attenuation is closely related to in situ TSS and chlorophyll‐a concentrations, however, the strength of the correlation differs among the CB segments. There are distinct differences between saline and tidal fresh segments in the main Bay, but less distinction among saline and tidal fresh segments in the tidal tributaries. The correlation between Kd with sediment and nutrient loads is complicated by the lag times of TSS and the chlorophyll‐a responses to reductions in nutrient and sediment loads from the watershed, and also due to the diverse load sources. Three sets of model sensitivity scenarios were performed with: (1) differential sediment and nutrient loads; (2) selective sediment source types; and (3) geographically isolated inputs. The model results yield similar findings as those based on observed data and provide information regarding the effect of sediment on specific water bodies. Based on the model results a method was developed to determine sediment and nutrient load reductions needed to achieve the water clarity standards of the CB segments.     

Application of SPARROW Modeling to Understanding Contaminant Fate and Transport from Uplands to Streams

Understanding spatial variability in contaminant fate and transport is critical to efficient regional water‐quality restoration. An approach to capitalize on previously calibrated spatially referenced regression (SPARROW) models to improve the understanding of contaminant fate and transport was developed and applied to the case of nitrogen in the 166,000 km² Chesapeake Bay watershed. A continuous function of four hydrogeologic, soil, and other landscape properties significant (α = 0.10) to nitrogen transport from uplands to streams was evaluated and compared among each of the more than 80,000 individual catchments (mean area, 2.1 km²) in the watershed. Budgets (including inputs, losses or net change in storage in uplands and stream corridors, and delivery to tidal waters) were also estimated for nitrogen applied to these catchments from selected upland sources. Most (81%) of such inputs are removed, retained, or otherwise processed in uplands rather than transported to surface waters. Combining SPARROW results with previous budget estimates suggests 55% of this processing is attributable to denitrification, 23% to crop or timber harvest, and 6% to volatilization. Remaining upland inputs represent a net annual increase in landscape storage in soils or biomass exceeding 10 kg per hectare in some areas. Such insights are important for planning watershed restoration and for improving future watershed models.     

Atmospheric deposition of pesticides to an agricultural watershed of the Chesapeake Bay

The Choptank River watershed, located on the Delmarva Peninsula of the Chesapeake Bay, is dominated by agricultural land use, which makes it vulnerable to runoff and atmospheric deposition of pesticides. Agricultural and wildlife areas are in close proximity and off-site losses of pesticides may contribute to toxic effects on sensitive species of plants and animals. High-volume air samples (n = 31) and event-based rain samples (n = 71) were collected from a single location in the watershed representing regional background conditions. Surface water samples were collected from eight stations in the tidal portion of the river on five occasions during 2000. Chlorothalonil, metolachlor, atrazine, simazine, endosulfan, and chlorpyrifos were frequently detected in the air and rain, with maximal concentrations during the period when local or regional crops were planted. The wet deposition load to the watershed was estimated at 150 +/- 16, 61 +/- 7, and 51 +/- 6 kg yr(-1) for chlorothalonil, metolachlor, and atrazine, respectively. The high wet deposition load compared with the estimated annual usage for chlorothalonil (13%) and endosulfan (14-90%) suggests an atmospheric source from outside the watershed. Net air-water gas exchange fluxes for metolachlor varied from -44 +/- 19 to 9.3 +/- 4.1 ng m(-2) d(-1) with negative values indicating net deposition. Wet deposition accounted for 3 to 20% of the total metolachlor mass in the Choptank River and was a more important source to the river than gas exchange. Estimates of herbicide flux presented here are probably a low estimate and actual rates may be significantly higher in areas closer to pesticide application.     

Development of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Total Maximum Daily Load Allocation

Nutrient load allocations and subsequent reductions in total nitrogen and phosphorus have been applied in the Chesapeake watershed since 1992 to reduce hypoxia and to restore living resources. In 2010, sediment allocations were established to augment nutrient allocations supporting the submerged aquatic vegetation resource. From the initial introduction of nutrient allocations in 1992 to the present, the allocations have become more completely applied to all areas and loads in the watershed and have also become more rigorously assessed and tracked. The latest 2010 application of nutrient and sediment allocations were made as part of the Chesapeake Bay total maximum daily load and covered all six states of the Chesapeake watershed. A quantitative allocation process was developed that applied principles of equity and efficiency in the watershed, while achieving all tidal water quality standards through an assessment of equitable levels of effort in reducing nutrients and sediments. The level of effort was determined through application of two key watershed scenarios: one where no action was taken in nutrient control and one where maximum nutrient control efforts were applied. Once the level of effort was determined for different jurisdictions, the overall load reduction was set watershed‐wide to achieve dissolved oxygen water quality standards. Further adjustments were made to the allocation to achieve the James River chlorophyll‐a standard.     

Total Maximum Daily Load Criteria Assessment Using Monitoring and Modeling Data

Applications of Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) criteria for complex estuarine systems like Chesapeake Bay have been limited by difficulties in estimating precisely how changes in input loads will impact ambient water quality. A method to deal with this limitation combines the strengths of the Chesapeake Bay's Water Quality Sediment Transport Model (WQSTM), which simulates load response, and the Chesapeake Bay Program's robust historical monitoring dataset. The method uses linear regression to apply simulated relative load responses to historical observations of water quality at a given location and time. Steps to optimize the application of regression analysis were to: (1) determine the best temporal and spatial scale for applying the WQSTM scenarios, (2) determine whether the WQSTM method remained valid with significant perturbation from calibration conditions, and (3) evaluate the need for log transformation of both dissolved oxygen (DO) and chlorophyll a (CHL) datasets. The final method used simple linear regression at the single month, single WQSTM grid cell scale to quantify changes in DO and CHL resulting from simulated load reduction scenarios. The resulting linear equations were applied to historical monitoring data to produce a set of “scenario‐modified” DO or CHL concentration estimates. The utility of the regression method was validated by its ability to estimate progressively increasing attainment in support of the 2010 Chesapeake Bay TMDL.     

Development of bacteria and benthic total maximum daily loads: a case study, Linville Creek, Virginia

Two total maximum daily load (TMDL) studies were performed for Linville Creek in Rockingham County, Virginia, to address bacterial and benthic impairments. The TMDL program is an integrated watershed management approach required by the Clean Water Act. This paper describes the procedures used by the Center for TMDL and Watershed Studies at Virginia Tech to develop the Linville Creek TMDLs and discusses the key lessons learned from and the ramifications of the procedures used in these and other similar TMDL studies. The bacterial impairment TMDL was developed using the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF). Fecal coliform loads were estimated through an intensive source characterization process. The benthic impairment TMDL was developed using the Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) model and the reference watershed approach. The bacterial TMDL allocation scenario requires a 100% reduction in cattle manure direct-deposits to the stream, a 96% reduction in nonpoint-source loadings to the land surface, and a 95% reduction in wildlife direct-deposits to the stream. Sediment was identified as the primary benthic stressor. The TMDL allocation scenario for the benthic impairment requires an overall reduction of 12.3% of the existing sediment loads. Despite the many drawbacks associated with using watershed-scale models like HSPF and GWLF to develop TMDLs, the detailed watershed and pollutant-source characterization required to use these and similar models creates information that stakeholders need to select appropriate corrective measures to address the cause of the water quality impairment when implementing the TMDL.     

Twenty‐One‐Year Simulation of Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Using the CE‐QUAL‐ICM Eutrophication Model

The CE‐QUAL‐ICM (Corps of Engineers Integrated Compartment Water Quality Model) eutrophication model was applied in a 21‐year simulation of Chesapeake Bay water quality, 1985‐2005. The eutrophication model is part of a larger model package and is forced, in part, by models of atmospheric deposition, watershed flows and loads, and hydrodynamics. Results from the model are compared with observations in multiple formats including time series plots, cumulative distribution plots, and statistical summaries. The model indicates only one long‐term trend in computed water quality: light attenuation deteriorates circa 1993 through the end of the simulation. The most significant result is the influence of physical processes, notably stratification and associated effects (e.g., anoxic volume), on computed water quality. Within the application period, physical effects are more important determinants of year‐to‐year variability in computed water quality than external loads.     

Spatiotemporal variability of wet atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina

Excessive nitrogen (N) loading to N-sensitive waters such as the Neuse River estuary (North Carolina) has been shown to promote changes in microbial and algal community composition and function (harmful algal blooms), hypoxia and anoxia, and fish kills. Previous studies have estimated that wet atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (WAD-N), as deposition of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN: NO3-, NH3/NH4+) and dissolved organic nitrogen, may contribute at least 15% of the total externally supplied or "new" N flux to the coastal waters of North Carolina. In a 3-yr study from June 1996 to June 1999, we calculated the weekly wet deposition of inorganic and organic N at eleven sites on a northwest-southeast transect in the watershed. The annual mean total (wet DIN + wet organics) WAD-N flux for the Neuse River watershed was calculated to be 956 mg N/m2/yr (15026 Mg N/yr). Seasonally, the spring (March-May) and summer (June-August) months contain the highest total weekly N deposition; this pattern appears to be driven by N concentration in precipitation. There is also spatial variability in WAD-N deposition; in general, the upper portion of the watershed receives the lowest annual deposition and the middle portion of the watershed receives the highest deposition. Based on a range of watershed N retention and in-stream riverine processing values, we estimate that this flux contributes approximately 24% of the total "new" N flux to the estuary.     

Eutrophication of Buttermilk Bay,a cape cod coastal embayment: Concentrations of nutrients and watershed nutrient budgets

Nutrient concentrations in Buttermilk Bay, a coastal embayment on the northern end of Buzzards Bay, MA, are higher in the nearshore where salinities are lower. This pattern suggests that freshwater sources may contribute significantly to nutrient inputs into Buttermilk Bay. To evaluate the relative importance of the various sources we estimated inputs of nutrients by each major source into the watershed and into the bay itself. Septic systems contributed about 40% of the nitrogen and phosphorus entering the watershed, with precipitation and fertilizer use adding the remainder. Groundwater transported over 85% of the nitrogen and 75% of the phosphorus entering the bay. Most nutrients entering the watershed failed to reach the bay; uptake by forests, soils, denitrification, and adsorption intercepted two-thirds of the nitrogen and nine-tenths of the phosphorus that entered the watershed. The nutrients that did reach the bay most likely originated from subsoil injections into groundwater by septic tanks, plus some leaching of fertilizers.Buttermilk Bay water has relatively low nutrient concentrations, probably because of uptake of nutrients by macrophytes and because of relatively rapid tidal flushing. Annual budgets of nutrients entering the watershed showed a low nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratio of 6, but passage of nutrients through the watershed raised N/P to 23, probably because of adsorption of PO₄ during transit. The N/P ratio of water that leaves the watershed and presumably enters the bay is probably high enough to maintain active growth of nitrogenlimited coastal producers. There is a seasonal shift in N/P in the water column of Buttermilk Bay. N/P exceeded the 161 Redfield ratio during midwinter; the remainder of the year N/P fell below 161. This suggests that annual budgets do not provide sufficiently detailed data with which to interpret nutrient-limitation of producers. Further, some idea of water turnover is also needed to evaluate impact of loading rates. Urbanization of watersheds seems to increase loadings to nearshore environments, and to shift the nutrient loadings delivered to coastal waters to relatively high N-to-P ratios, potentially stimulating growth of nitrogen-limited primary producers.     

INTEGRATING DIFFUSEINONPOINT POLLUTION CONTROL AND WATER BODY RESTORATION INTO WATERSHED MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: The objective of water quality/watershed management is attainment of water quality goals specified by the Clean Water Act. The Total Maximal Daily Load (TMDL) planning process is a tool to set up watershed management. However, TMDL methodologies and concepts have several problems, including determination of Loading Capacity for only low flow critical periods that preclude consideration of wet weather sources in water quality management. Research is needed to develop watershed pollutant loading and receiving waters Loading Capacity models that will link wet and dry weather pollution loads to the probability of the exceedence of water quality standards. The long term impact of traditional Best Management Practices as well as ponds and wetlands, must be reassessed to consider long term accumulation of conservative toxic compounds. Socioeconomic research should focus on providing information on economic and social feasibility of implementation of additional controls in water quality limited watersheds.     

Cropland Riparian Buffers throughout Chesapeake Bay Watershed: Spatial Patterns and Effects on Nitrate Loads Delivered to Streams

We used statistical models to provide the first empirical estimates of riparian buffer effects on the cropland nitrate load to streams throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed. For each of 1,964 subbasins, we quantified the 1990 prevalence of cropland and riparian buffers. Cropland was considered buffered if the topographic flow path connecting it to a stream traversed a streamside forest or wetland. We applied a model that predicts stream nitrate concentration based on physiographic province and the watershed proportions of unbuffered and buffered cropland. We used another model to predict annual streamflow based on precipitation and temperature, and then multiplied the predicted flows and concentrations to estimate 1990 annual nitrate loads. Across the entire Chesapeake watershed, croplands released 92.3 Gg of nitrate nitrogen, but 19.8 Gg of that was removed by riparian buffers. At most, 29.4 Gg more might have been removed if buffer gaps were restored so that all cropland was buffered. The other 43.1 Gg of cropland load cannot be addressed with riparian buffers. The Coastal Plain physiographic province provided 52% of the existing buffer reduction of Bay‐wide nitrate loads and 36% of potential additional removal from buffer restoration in cropland buffer gaps. Existing and restorable nitrate removal in buffers were lower in the other three major provinces because of less cropland, lower buffer prevalence, and lower average buffer nitrate removal efficiency.     

Chesapeake Bay eutrophication: scientific understanding, ecosystem restoration, and challenges for agriculture

Chesapeake Bay has been the subject of intensive research on cultural eutrophication and extensive efforts to reduce nutrient inputs. In 1987 a commitment was made to reduce controllable sources of nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) by 40% by the year 2000, although the causes and effects of eutrophication were incompletely known. Subsequent research, modeling, and monitoring have shown that: (i) the estuarine ecosystem had been substantially altered by increased loadings of N and P of approximately 7- and 18-fold, respectively; (ii) hypoxia substantially increased since the 1950s; (iii) eutrophication was the major cause of reductions in submerged vegetation; and (iv) reducing nutrient sources by 40% would improve water quality, but less than originally thought. Strong public support and political commitment have allowed the Chesapeake Bay Program to reduce nutrient inputs, particularly from point sources, by 58% for P and 28% for N. However, reductions of nonpoint sources of P and N were projected by models to reach only 19% and 15%, respectively, of controllable loadings. The lack of reductions in nutrient concentrations in some streams and tidal waters and field research suggest that soil conservation-based management strategies are less effective than assumed. In 1997, isolated outbreaks of the toxic dinoflagellate Pfiesteria piscicida brought attention to the land application of poultry manure as a contributing factor to elevated soil P and ground water N concentrations. In addition to developing more effective agricultural practices, emerging issues include linking eutrophication and living resources, reducing atmospheric sources of N, enhancing nutrient sinks, controlling sprawling suburban development, and predicting and preventing harmful algal blooms.     

Stochastic Watershed Water Quality Simulation for TMDL Development – A Case Study in the Newport Bay Watershed1

Abstract: Systematic consideration of uncertainty in data, model structure, and other factors is generally unaddressed in most Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) calculations. Our previous studies developed the Management Objectives Constrained Analysis of Uncertainty (MOCAU) approach as an uncertainty analysis technique specifically for watershed water quality models, based on a synthetic case. In this study, we applied MOCAU to analyze diazinon loading in the Newport Bay watershed (Southern California). The study objectives included (1) demonstrating the value of performing stochastic simulation and uncertainty analysis for TMDL development, using MOCAU as the technique and (2) evaluating the existing diazinon TMDL and generating insights for the development of scientifically sound TMDLs, considering uncertainty. The Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework model was used as an example of a complex watershed model. The study revealed the importance and feasibility of conducting stochastic watershed water quality simulation for TMDL development. The critical role of management objectives in a systematic uncertainty assessment was well demonstrated. The results of this study are intuitive to TMDL calculation, model structure improvement and sampling strategy design.     

Toward Reversal of Eutrophic Conditions in a Subtropical Estuary: Water Quality and Seagrass Response to Nitrogen Loading Reductions in Tampa Bay, Florida, USA

Coastal waters have been significantly influenced by increased inputs of nutrients that have accompanied population growth in adjacent drainage basins. In Tampa Bay, Florida, USA, the population has quadrupled since 1950. By the late 1970s, eutrophic conditions including phytoplankton and macroalgal blooms and seagrass losses were evident. The focus of improving Tampa Bay is centered on obtaining sufficient water quality necessary for restoring seagrass habitat, estimated to have been 16,400 ha in 1950 but reduced to 8800 ha by 1982. To address these problems, targets for nutrient load reductions along with seagrass restoration goals were developed and actions were implemented to reach adopted targets. Empirical regression models were developed to determine relationships between chlorophyll a concentrations and light attenuation adequate for sustainable seagrass growth. Additional empirical relationships between nitrogen loading and chlorophyll a concentrations were developed to determine how Tampa Bay responds to changes in loads. Data show that when nitrogen load reduction and chlorophyll a targets are met, seagrass cover increases. After nitrogen load reductions and maintenance of chlorophyll a at target levels, seagrass acreage has increased 25% since 1982, although more than 5000 ha of seagrass still require recovery. The cooperation of scientists, managers, and decision makers participating in the Tampa Bay Estuary Program’s Nitrogen Management Strategy allows the Tampa Bay estuary to continue to show progress towards reversing many of the problems that once plagued its waters. These results also highlight the importance of a multi-entity watershed management process in maintaining progress towards science-based natural resource goals.     

Toward Explaining Nitrogen and Phosphorus Trends in Chesapeake Bay Tributaries, 1992–2012

Understanding trends in stream chemistry is critical to watershed management, and often complicated by multiple contaminant sources and landscape conditions changing over varying time scales. We adapted spatially referenced regression (SPARROW) to infer causes of recent nutrient trends in Chesapeake Bay tributaries by relating observed fluxes during 1992, 2002, and 2012 to contemporary inputs and watershed conditions. The annual flow‐normalized nitrogen flux to the bay from its watershed declined by 14% to 127,000 Mg (metric tons) between 1992 and 2012, due primarily (more than 80% of the decline) to reduced point sources. The remainder of the decline was due to reduced atmospheric deposition (13%) and urban nonpoint sources. Agricultural inputs, which contribute most nitrogen to the bay, changed little, although trends in the average nitrogen yield (flux per unit area) from cropland and pasture to streams in some settings suggest possible effects of evolving nutrient applications or other land management practices. Point sources of phosphorus to local streams declined by half between 1992 and 2012, while nonpoint inputs were relatively unchanged. Annual phosphorus delivery to the bay increased by 9% to 9,570 Mg between 1992 and 2012, however, due mainly to reduced retention in the Susquehanna River at Conowingo Reservoir.