The Role of Headwater Streams in Downstream Water Quality1

Abstract: Knowledge of headwater influences on the water‐quality and flow conditions of downstream waters is essential to water‐resource management at all governmental levels; this includes recent court decisions on the jurisdiction of the Federal Clean Water Act (CWA) over upland areas that contribute to larger downstream water bodies. We review current watershed research and use a water‐quality model to investigate headwater influences on downstream receiving waters. Our evaluations demonstrate the intrinsic connections of headwaters to landscape processes and downstream waters through their influence on the supply, transport, and fate of water and solutes in watersheds. Hydrological processes in headwater catchments control the recharge of subsurface water stores, flow paths, and residence times of water throughout landscapes. The dynamic coupling of hydrological and biogeochemical processes in upland streams further controls the chemical form, timing, and longitudinal distances of solute transport to downstream waters. We apply the spatially explicit, mass‐balance watershed model SPARROW to consider transport and transformations of water and nutrients throughout stream networks in the northeastern United States. We simulate fluxes of nitrogen, a primary nutrient that is a water‐quality concern for acidification of streams and lakes and eutrophication of coastal waters, and refine the model structure to include literature observations of nitrogen removal in streams and lakes. We quantify nitrogen transport from headwaters to downstream navigable waters, where headwaters are defined within the model as first‐order, perennial streams that include flow and nitrogen contributions from smaller, intermittent and ephemeral streams. We find that first‐order headwaters contribute approximately 70% of the mean‐annual water volume and 65% of the nitrogen flux in second‐order streams. Their contributions to mean water volume and nitrogen flux decline only marginally to about 55% and 40% in fourth‐ and higher‐order rivers that include navigable waters and their tributaries. These results underscore the profound influence that headwater areas have on shaping downstream water quantity and water quality. The results have relevance to water‐resource management and regulatory decisions and potentially broaden understanding of the spatial extent of Federal CWA jurisdiction in U.S. waters.     

SPARROW Modeling of Nitrogen Sources and Transport in Rivers and Streams of California and Adjacent States,U.S.

The SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes) model was used to evaluate the spatial distribution of total nitrogen (TN) sources, loads, watershed yields, and factors affecting transport and decay in the stream network of California and portions of adjacent states for the year 2002. The two major TN sources to local catchments on a mass basis were fertilizers and manure (51.7%) and wastewater discharge (15.9%). Other sources contributed < 12%. Fertilizer use is widespread in the Central Valley region of California, and also important in several other regions because of the diversity of California agriculture. Precipitation, sand content of surficial soils, wetlands, and tile drains were important for TN movement to stream reaches. Median streamflow in the study area is about 0.04 m³/s. Aquatic losses of nitrogen were found to be most important in intermittent and small to medium sized streams (0.2‐14 m³/s), while larger streams showed less loss, and therefore are important for TN transport. Nitrogen loss in reservoirs was found to be insignificant, possibly because most of the larger ones are located upstream of nitrogen sources. The model was used to show loadings, sources, and tributary inputs to several major rivers. The information provided by the SPARROW model is useful for determining both the major sources contributing nitrogen to streams and the specific tributaries that transport the load.     

Sources of Suspended-Sediment Flux in Streams of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed: A Regional Application of the SPARROW Model1

Brakebill, John W., Scott W. Ator, and Gregory E. Schwarz, 2010. Sources of Suspended-Sediment Flux in Streams of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed: A Regional Application of the SPARROW Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(4): 757-776. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00450.x Abstract: We describe the sources and transport of fluvial suspended sediment in nontidal streams of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and vicinity. We applied SPAtially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes, which spatially correlates estimated mean annual flux of suspended sediment in nontidal streams with sources of suspended sediment and transport factors. According to our model, urban development generates on average the greatest amount of suspended sediment per unit area (3,928 Mg/km²/year), although agriculture is much more widespread and is the greatest overall source of suspended sediment (57 Mg/km²/year). Factors affecting sediment transport from uplands to streams include mean basin slope, reservoirs, physiography, and soil permeability. On average, 59% of upland suspended sediment generated is temporarily stored along large rivers draining the Coastal Plain or in reservoirs throughout the watershed. Applying erosion and sediment controls from agriculture and urban development in areas of the northern Piedmont close to the upper Bay, where the combined effects of watershed characteristics on sediment transport have the greatest influence may be most helpful in mitigating sedimentation in the bay and its tributaries. Stream restoration efforts addressing floodplain and bank stabilization and incision may be more effective in smaller, headwater streams outside of the Coastal Plain.     

Toward Explaining Nitrogen and Phosphorus Trends in Chesapeake Bay Tributaries, 1992–2012

Understanding trends in stream chemistry is critical to watershed management, and often complicated by multiple contaminant sources and landscape conditions changing over varying time scales. We adapted spatially referenced regression (SPARROW) to infer causes of recent nutrient trends in Chesapeake Bay tributaries by relating observed fluxes during 1992, 2002, and 2012 to contemporary inputs and watershed conditions. The annual flow‐normalized nitrogen flux to the bay from its watershed declined by 14% to 127,000 Mg (metric tons) between 1992 and 2012, due primarily (more than 80% of the decline) to reduced point sources. The remainder of the decline was due to reduced atmospheric deposition (13%) and urban nonpoint sources. Agricultural inputs, which contribute most nitrogen to the bay, changed little, although trends in the average nitrogen yield (flux per unit area) from cropland and pasture to streams in some settings suggest possible effects of evolving nutrient applications or other land management practices. Point sources of phosphorus to local streams declined by half between 1992 and 2012, while nonpoint inputs were relatively unchanged. Annual phosphorus delivery to the bay increased by 9% to 9,570 Mg between 1992 and 2012, however, due mainly to reduced retention in the Susquehanna River at Conowingo Reservoir.     

Representing the Connectivity of Upland Areas to Floodplains and Streams in SWAT+

In recent years, watershed modelers have put increasing emphasis on capturing the interaction of landscape hydrologic processes instead of focusing on streamflow at the watershed outlet alone. Understanding the hydrologic connectivity between landscape elements is important to explain the hydrologic response of a watershed to rainfall events. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool+ (SWAT+) is a new version of SWAT with improved runoff routing capabilities. Subbasins may be divided into landscape units (LSUs), e.g., upland areas and floodplains, and flow can be routed between these LSUs. We ran three scenarios representing different extents of connectivity between uplands, floodplains, and streams. In the first and second scenarios, the ratio of channelized flow from the upland to the stream and sheet flow from the upland to the floodplain was 70/30 and 30/70, respectively, for all upland/floodplain pairs. In the third scenario, the ratio was calculated for each upland/floodplain pair based on the upland/floodplain area ratio. Results indicate differences in streamflow were small, but the relative importance of flow components and upland areas and floodplains as sources of surface runoff changed. Also, the soil moisture in the floodplains was impacted. The third scenario was found to provide more realistic results than the other two. A realistic representation of connectivity in watershed models has important implications for the identification of pollution sources and sinks.     

Use of SWAT to Estimate Spatial Scaling of Phosphorus Export Coefficients and Load Reductions Due to Agricultural BMPS

Phosphorus export coefficients (kg/ha/yr) from selected land covers, also called phosphorus yields, tend to get smaller as contributing areas get larger because some of the phosphorus mobilized on local fields gets trapped during transport to regional watershed outlets. Phosphorus traps include floodplains, wetlands, and lakes, which can then become impaired by eutrophication. The Sunrise River watershed in east central Minnesota, United States, has numerous lakes impaired by excess phosphorus. The Sunrise is tributary to the St. Croix River, whose much larger watershed is terminated by Lake St. Croix, also impaired by excess phosphorus. To support management of these impairments at both local and regional scales, a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model of the Sunrise watershed was constructed to estimate load reductions due to selected best management practices (BMPs) and to determine how phosphorus export coefficients scaled with contributing area. In this study, agricultural BMPs, including vegetated filter strips, grassed waterways, and reduction of soil‐phosphorus concentrations reduced phosphorus loads by 4‐20%, with similar percentage reductions at field and watershed spatial scales. Phosphorus export coefficients from cropland in rotation with corn, soybeans, and alfalfa decreased as a negative power function of contributing area, from an average of 2.12 kg/ha/yr at the upland field scale (~0.6 km²) to 0.63 kg/ha/yr at the major river basin scale (20,000 km²). Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Letting Wet Spots be Wet: Restoring Natural Bioreactors in the Dissected Glacial Landscape

In this paper, we argue that there is tremendous potential for nitrate-N reductions to occur throughout the Corn Belt region of the USA if we simply let naturally occurring wet spots on the landscape be wet. Geologic and hydrologic data gathered in the Walnut Creek watershed located in south-central Iowa provides compelling evidence that substantial nutrient-processing capacity exists in this dissected glacial landscape. Self-similarity of stratigraphy, sedimentology and hydrology observed at all spatial scales in the watershed suggests that Holocene alluvial fill deposits provide a natural bioreactor for denitrification of upland groundwater nitrate-N; the occurrence of such deposits can be mapped to identify potential nitrogen sinks across the landscape. This approach to identifying potential nitrogen sinks is geology focused and extends potential locations for nutrient processing upstream into the headwater catchments of individual fields.     

Computing Atmospheric Nutrient Loads to the Chesapeake Bay Watershed and Tidal Waters

Application of integrated Chesapeake Bay models of the airshed, watershed, and estuary support air and water nitrogen controls in the Chesapeake. The models include an airshed model of the Mid‐Atlantic region which tracks the estimated atmospheric deposition loads of nitrogen to the watershed, tidal Bay, and adjacent coastal ocean. The three integrated models allow tracking of the transport and fate of nitrogen air emissions, including deposition in the Chesapeake watershed, the subsequent uptake, transformation, and transport to Bay tidal waters, and their ultimate influence on Chesapeake water quality. This article describes the development of the airshed model, its application to scenarios supporting the Chesapeake Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL), and key findings from the scenarios. Key findings are that the atmospheric deposition loads are among the largest input loads of nitrogen in the watershed, and that the indirect nitrogen deposition loads to the watershed, which are subsequently delivered to the Bay are larger than the direct loads of atmospheric nitrogen deposition to Chesapeake tidal waters. Atmospheric deposition loads of nitrogen deposited in coastal waters, which are exchanged with the Chesapeake, are also estimated. About half the atmospheric deposition loads of nitrogen originate from outside the Chesapeake watershed. For the first time in a TMDL, the loads of atmospheric nitrogen deposition are an explicit part of the TMDL load reductions.     

The Great Lakes Hydrography Dataset: Consistent,Binational Watersheds for the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin

Ecosystem‐based management of the Laurentian Great Lakes, which spans both the United States and Canada, is hampered by the lack of consistent binational watersheds for the entire Basin. Using comparable data sources and consistent methods, we developed spatially equivalent watershed boundaries for the binational extent of the Basin to create the Great Lakes Hydrography Dataset (GLHD). The GLHD consists of 5,589 watersheds for the entire Basin, covering a total area of approximately 547,967 km², or about twice the 247,003 km² surface water area of the Great Lakes. The GLHD improves upon existing watershed efforts by delineating watersheds for the entire Basin using consistent methods; enhancing the precision of watershed delineation using recently developed flow direction grids that have been hydrologically enforced and vetted by provincial and federal water resource agencies; and increasing the accuracy of watershed boundaries by enforcing embayments, delineating watersheds on islands, and delineating watersheds for all tributaries draining to connecting channels. In addition, the GLHD is packaged in a publically available geodatabase that includes synthetic stream networks, reach catchments, watershed boundaries, a broad set of attribute data for each tributary, and metadata documenting methodology. The GLHD provides a common set of watersheds and associated hydrography data for the Basin that will enhance binational efforts to protect and restore the Great Lakes.     

Landscape Planning for Agricultural Non–Point Source Pollution Reduction. II. Balancing Watershed Size,Number of Watersheds,and Implementation Effort

Agricultural non–point source (NPS) pollution poses a severe threat to water quality and aquatic ecosystems. In response, tremendous efforts have been directed toward reducing these pollution inputs by implementing agricultural conservation practices. Although conservation practices reduce pollution inputs from individual fields, scaling pollution control benefits up to the watershed level (i.e., improvements in stream water quality) has been a difficult challenge. This difficulty highlights the need for NPS reduction programs that focus efforts within target watersheds and at specific locations within target watersheds, with the ultimate goal of improving stream water quality. Fundamental program design features for NPS control programs—i.e., number of watersheds in the program, total watershed area, and level of effort expended within watersheds—have not been considered in any sort of formal analysis. Here, we present an optimization model that explores the programmatic and environmental trade-offs between these design choices. Across a series of annual program budgets ranging from $2 to $200 million, the optimal number of watersheds ranged from 3 to 27; optimal watershed area ranged from 29 to 214 km²; and optimal expenditure ranged from $21,000 to $35,000/km². The optimal program configuration was highly dependent on total program budget. Based on our general findings, we delineated hydrologically complete and spatially independent watersheds ranging in area from 20 to 100 km². These watersheds are designed to serve as implementation units for a targeted NPS pollution control program currently being developed in Wisconsin.     

Source and Delivery of Nutrients to Receiving Waters in the Northeastern and Mid‐Atlantic Regions of the United States1

Moore, Richard B., Craig M. Johnston, Richard A. Smith, and Bryan Milstead, 2011. Source and Delivery of Nutrients to Receiving Waters in the Northeastern and Mid‐Atlantic Regions of the United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):965‐990. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00582.x Abstract: This study investigates nutrient sources and transport to receiving waters, in order to provide spatially detailed information to aid water‐resources managers concerned with eutrophication and nutrient management strategies. SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) nutrient models were developed for the Northeastern and Mid‐Atlantic (NE US) regions of the United States to represent source conditions for the year 2002. The model developed to examine the source and delivery of nitrogen to the estuaries of nine large rivers along the NE US Seaboard indicated that agricultural sources contribute the largest percentage (37%) of the total nitrogen load delivered to the estuaries. Point sources account for 28% while atmospheric deposition accounts for 20%. A second SPARROW model was used to examine the sources and delivery of phosphorus to lakes and reservoirs throughout the NE US. The greatest attenuation of phosphorus occurred in lakes that were large relative to the size of their watershed. Model results show that, within the NE US, aquatic decay of nutrients is quite limited on an annual basis and that we especially cannot rely on natural attenuation to remove nutrients within the larger rivers nor within lakes with large watersheds relative to the size of the lake.     

Hot Spots and Hot Moments in Riparian Zones: Potential for Improved Water Quality Management1

Vidon, Philippe, Craig Allan, Douglas Burns, Tim P. Duval, Noel Gurwick, Shreeram Inamdar, Richard Lowrance, Judy Okay, Durelle Scott, and Steve Sebestyen, 2010. Hot Spots and Hot Moments in Riparian Zones: Potential for Improved Water Quality Management. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):278-298. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00420.x Abstract: Biogeochemical and hydrological processes in riparian zones regulate contaminant movement to receiving waters and often mitigate the impact of upland sources of contaminants on water quality. These heterogeneous processes have recently been conceptualized as “hot spots and moments” of retention, degradation, or production. Nevertheless, studies investigating the importance of hot phenomena (spots and moments) in riparian zones have thus far largely focused on nitrogen (N) despite compelling evidence that a variety of elements, chemicals, and particulate contaminant cycles are subject to the influence of both biogeochemical and transport hot spots and moments. In addition to N, this review summarizes current knowledge for phosphorus, organic matter, pesticides, and mercury across riparian zones, identifies variables controlling the occurrence and magnitude of hot phenomena in riparian zones for these contaminants, and discusses the implications for riparian zone management of recognizing the importance of hot phenomena in annual solute budgets at the watershed scale. Examples are presented to show that biogeochemical process-driven hot spots and moments occur along the stream/riparian zone/upland interface for a wide variety of constituents. A basic understanding of the possible co-occurrence of hot spots and moments for a variety of contaminants in riparian systems will increase our understanding of the influence of riparian zones on water quality and guide management strategies to enhance nutrient or pollutant removal at the landscape scale.     

Modeling Effects of Natural Flow Restoration on Metals Fate and Transport in a Mountain Stream Impacted by Mine Waste1

Abstract: The effects of natural flow restoration on metals fate and transport in the Upper Tenmile Creek Watershed, Montana, were modeled using the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). This 50‐km² watershed has over 150 historic abandoned mines, including mine waste rock and tailings, as well as adits discharging acid mine drainage, and is the primary drinking water supply for the City of Helena. Water supply diversions almost completely dewater some stream reaches during summer low flows, but the city is considering a new drinking water source and restoration of natural flows in Tenmile Creek as part of acid mine drainage remediation and broader aquatic habitat restoration. One dimensional steady‐state simulation of total recoverable cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc in the mainstem was performed, and the model was calibrated to June 2000 base‐flow data. Representative low‐flows in August and high‐flow snowmelt conditions in June were modeled using mean monthly natural flow estimates from the U.S. Geological Survey and representative USEPA metals concentrations data. The modeling showed that total recoverable metals concentrations, and especially loads, can vary significantly among input locations and over time in the watershed. Some data gaps limit evaluation of variability and increase uncertainty in several locations. Model results indicated, however, that natural low‐ and high‐flow restoration by itself can reduce some metals concentrations in the mainstem compared to June 2000 values, which were influenced by significant water diversion. Some values (such as Zn) may still exceed standards during natural August low flow due to the remaining high concentrations and loads in the primary inputs to the mainstem. Others (such as Cu) can increase during high flow due to remaining mine waste sources and loading of particulate Cu associated with erosion and transport of solids. Greater than 50% reduction in concentrations and loads from some of the main tributaries may be necessary to meet all standards, especially for potential particulate loads with higher flows in June.     

MODELING OF NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION OF NITROGEN AT THE WATERSHED SCALE1

ABSTRACT: The Watershed Nutrient Transport and Transformation (NTT-Watershed) model is a physically based, energy-driven, multiple land use, distributed model that is capable of simulating water and nutrient transport in a watershed. The topographic features and subsurface properties of the watershed are refined into uniform, homogeneous square grids. The vertical discretization includes vegetation, overland flow, soil water redistribution and groundwater zones. The chemical submodel simulates the nitrogen dynamics in terrestrial and aquatic systems. Three chemical state variables are considered (NO₃^-_-, NH₄⁺, and Org-N). The NTT-Watershed model was used to simulate the fate and transport of nitrogen in the Muddy Brook watershed in Connecticut. The model was shown to be capable of capturing the hydrologic and portions of the nitrogen dynamics in the watershed. Watershed planners could use this model in developing strategies of best management practices that could result in maximizing the reductions of nitrogen export from a watershed.     

Factors Affecting Stream Nutrient Loads: A Synthesis of Regional SPARROW Model Results for the Continental United States1

Preston, Stephen D., Richard B. Alexander, Gregory E. Schwarz, and Charles G. Crawford, 2011. Factors Affecting Stream Nutrient Loads: A Synthesis of Regional SPARROW Model Results for the Continental United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):891‐915. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00577.x Abstract: We compared the results of 12 recently calibrated regional SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes) models covering most of the continental United States to evaluate the consistency and regional differences in factors affecting stream nutrient loads. The models – 6 for total nitrogen and 6 for total phosphorus – all provide similar levels of prediction accuracy, but those for major river basins in the eastern half of the country were somewhat more accurate. The models simulate long‐term mean annual stream nutrient loads as a function of a wide range of known sources and climatic (precipitation, temperature), landscape (e.g., soils, geology), and aquatic factors affecting nutrient fate and transport. The results confirm the dominant effects of urban and agricultural sources on stream nutrient loads nationally and regionally, but reveal considerable spatial variability in the specific types of sources that control water quality. These include regional differences in the relative importance of different types of urban (municipal and industrial point vs. diffuse urban runoff) and agriculture (crop cultivation vs. animal waste) sources, as well as the effects of atmospheric deposition, mining, and background (e.g., soil phosphorus) sources on stream nutrients. Overall, we found that the SPARROW model results provide a consistent set of information for identifying the major sources and environmental factors affecting nutrient fate and transport in United States watersheds at regional and subregional scales.     

Development and Application of the 2010 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Total Maximum Daily Load Model

The Phase 5.3 Watershed Model simulates the Chesapeake watershed land use, river flows, and the associated transport and fate of nutrient and sediment loads to the Chesapeake Bay. The Phase 5.3 Model is the most recent of a series of increasingly refined versions of a model that have been operational for more than two decades. The Phase 5.3 Model, in conjunction with models of the Chesapeake airshed and estuary, provides estimates of management actions needed to protect water quality, achieve Chesapeake water quality standards, and restore living resources. The Phase 5.3 Watershed Model tracks nutrient and sediment load estimates of the entire 166,000 km² watershed, including loads from all six watershed states. The creation of software systems, input datasets, and calibration methods were important aspects of the model development process. A community model approach was taken with model development and application, and the model was developed by a broad coalition of model practitioners including environmental engineers, scientists, and environmental managers. Among the users of the Phase 5.3 Model are the Chesapeake watershed states and local governments, consultants, river basin commissions, and universities. Development and application of the model are described, as well as key scenarios ranging from high nutrient and sediment load conditions if no management actions were taken in the watershed, to low load estimates of an all‐forested condition.     

The Use of Carbon and Nitrogen Isotopes to Study Watershed Erosion Processes1

Abstract:  Tracer studies are needed to better understand watershed soil erosion and calibrate watershed erosion models. For the first time, stable nitrogen and carbon isotopes (δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C) and the carbon to nitrogen atomic ratio (C/N) natural tracers are used to investigate temporal and spatial variability of erosion processes within a sub‐watershed. Temporal variability was assessed by comparing δ¹⁵N, δ¹³C, and C/N of eroded‐soils from a non‐equilibrium erosion event immediately following freezing and thawing of surface soils with two erosion events characterized by equilibrium conditions with erosion downcutting. Spatial variability was assessed for the equilibrium events by using the δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C signatures of eroded‐soils to measure the fraction of eroded‐soil derived from rill/interrill erosion on upland hillslopes as compared to headcut erosion on floodplains. In order to perform this study, a number of tasks were carried out including: (1) sampling source‐soils from upland hillslopes and floodplains, (2) sampling eroded‐soils with an in situ trap in the stream of the sub‐watershed, (3) isotopic and elemental analysis of the samples using isotope ratio mass spectrometry, (4) fractioning eroded‐soil to its upland rill/interrill and floodplain headcut end‐members using an unmixing model within a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework, and (5) evaluating tracer unmixing model results by comparison with process‐based erosion prediction models for rill/interrill and headcut erosion processes. Results showed that finer soil particles eroded during the non‐equilibrium event were enriched in δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C tracers and depleted in C/N tracer relative to coarser soil particles eroded during the equilibrium events. Correlation of tracer signature with soil particle size was explainable based on known biogeochemical processes. δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C were also able to distinguish between upland rill/interrill erosion and floodplain headcut erosion, which was due to different plant cover at the erosion sources. Results from the tracer unmixing model highlighted future needs for coupling rill/interrill and headcut erosion prediction models.     

Application of nutrient loading models to the analysis of trophic conditions in Lake Okeechobee,Florida

Lake Okeechobee (surface area = 1830 km², mean depth = 3.5 m), the largest lake in Florida, is eutrophic and has nitrogen and phosphorus loading rates in excess of nearly all established criteria. The lake is not homogeneous regarding trophic conditions, and spatial and temporal variations occur regarding nutrient limitation. Nonetheless, phosphorus loading rate and trophic state data fit reasonably well to various input-output models developed for temperate lakes. Modification of the models by regression analysis to fit data for Florida lakes resulted in improved predictions for most parameters. Analysis of nutrient management alternatives for the lake indicates that a 75% reduction of phosphorus loading from the largest source (the Taylor Creek-Nubbins Slough watershed) would reduce the average chlorophyll a concentration by less than 20%. Complete elimination of inputs from the largest nitrogen source (the Everglades Agricultural Area) would decrease the average nitrogen concentration in the lake by about 20%. Limitations of nutrient inputoutput models regarding analysis of trophic conditions and management alternatives for the lake are discussed.