Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site

Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential environmental costs. The health risks costs are associated with the residual contamination left at the site and its migration to groundwater used for drinking water. A probabilistic exposure model using first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) is used to estimate the contaminant concentrations at a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to the site remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost model.A case study based upon the developed methodology is presented in which the following remediation scenarios are analyzed and compared: (a) no action, (b) excavation and off-site treatment of soil, (c) soil vapor extraction and (d) thermally enhanced soil vapor extraction by electrical heating of the soil. Ultimately, the developed methodology facilitates societal cost estimations of remediation scenarios which can be used for internal ranking of the analyzed options. Despite the inherent uncertainties of placing a value on health and environmental impacts, the presented methodology is believed to be valuable in supporting decisions on remedial interventions.     

Uncertainty characterization approaches for risk assessment of DBPs in drinking water: A review

The management of risk from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water has become a critical issue over the last three decades. The areas of concern for risk management studies include (i) human health risk from DBPs, (ii) disinfection performance, (iii) technical feasibility (maintenance, management and operation) of treatment and disinfection approaches, and (iv) cost. Human health risk assessment is typically considered to be the most important phase of the risk-based decision-making or risk management studies. The factors associated with health risk assessment and other attributes are generally prone to considerable uncertainty. Probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches have both been employed to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment. The probabilistic approaches include sampling-based methods (typically Monte Carlo simulation and stratified sampling) and asymptotic (approximate) reliability analysis (first- and second-order reliability methods). Non-probabilistic approaches include interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and possibility theory. However, it is generally accepted that no single method is suitable for the entire spectrum of problems encountered in uncertainty analyses for risk assessment. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations. In this paper, the feasibility and limitations of different uncertainty analysis approaches are outlined for risk management studies of drinking water supply systems. The findings assist in the selection of suitable approaches for uncertainty analysis in risk management studies associated with DBPs and human health risk.     

Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment for Organic Compounds: Fuzzy Multicriteria Approach for Mexico City

This study was based on a groundwater vulnerability assessment approach implemented for the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). The approach is based on a fuzzy multicriteria procedure integrated in a geographic information system. The approach combined the potential contaminant sources with the permeability of geological materials. Initially, contaminant sources were ranked by experts through the Analytic Hierarchy Process. An aggregated contaminant sources map layer was obtained through the simple additive weighting method, using a scalar multiplication of criteria weights and binary maps showing the location of each source. A permeability map layer was obtained through the reclassification of a geology map using the respective hydraulic conductivity values, followed by a linear normalization of these values against a compatible scale. A fuzzy logic procedure was then applied to transform and combine the two map layers, resulting in a groundwater vulnerability map layer of five classes: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Results provided a more coherent assessment of the policy-making priorities considered when discussing the vulnerability of groundwater to organic compounds. The very high and high vulnerability areas covered a relatively small area (71 km² or 1.5% of the total study area), allowing the identification of the more critical locations. The advantage of a fuzzy logic procedure is that it enables the best possible use to be made of the information available regarding groundwater vulnerability in the MCMA.     

The development and application of a multilevel decision analysis model for the remediation of contaminated groundwater under uncertainty

A study was initiated which combined elements of stochastic hydrology, risk assessment, simulation modeling, cost analysis and decision making to define the optimum remediation choice(s) for a Superfund site in the southern United States. The effort focused upon the premise that groundwater remediation is inherently complex due to uncertainties in the geological matrix as well as in contaminant concentrations at points of compliance and/or exposure. The technical analyst should supply the decision maker with estimates of these uncertainties as well as the cost penalties required to reduce them to manageable levels. Monte Carlo transport modeling was employed to define the probability of contaminant excursions from the site, while geostatistical simulation identified a joint plume configuration and its attendant probability. Bayesian modeling was used to define the worth of additional data. These individual components were combined within a Decision Model to identify optimum remediation configurations for a given levels of risk tolerance which could be supplied by the decision maker or affected community. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to define ranges over which the decision would not be affected by variation in the respective decision parameter.     

环境风险评价构架的探讨

本文归纳并概括了国际上和我国环境风险评价的一般构架,从环境风险评价、安全评价、健康评价、生态评价、最大可信灾害事故及最大可接受水平等几个方面对我国环境风险评价一般构架进行了探讨,分析了我国环境风险评价构架中存在的问题,提出了进一步完善我国环境风险评价一般构架的方法,并辅以了案例分析。     

国家实验室认可与环境监测

《全国环境监测条例》（征求意见稿）及《全国环境监测工作“十五”计划纲要》（讨论稿）以及《水和废水监测分析方法》（第四版）中均提出在全国环境监测系统内实行实验室认可。我国进入WTO后,形势也要求各检测机构必须进行实验室认可后,方能进入市场化的国际、国内检测市场。本文介绍了我国加入WTO后,各检测机构、环境监测站所面临的机遇及挑战,介绍了 认可对检测机构的重要性和必要性,并对实验室认可的评审步骤、评审内容进行了简单的介绍。     

An interval type-2 fuzzy stochastic approach for regional-scale electric power system under parameter uncertainty

In this study, an interval type-2 fuzzy stochastic linear programming method (IT2FSLP) is developed to support regional-scale electric power system (REM) planning. The IT2FSLP-REM model is based on an integration of interval type-2 fuzzy sets boundary programming and stochastic linear programming techniques enable it to have robust abilities to the deal with uncertainties expressed as type-2 fuzzy intervals and probabilistic distributions within a general optimization framework. Moreover, it can reflect dynamic decisions for energy supply and energy conversion processes, as well as provide capacity expansion options with multiple periods. The developed model is applied to a case of planning regional-scale energy and environmental systems to demonstrate its applicability. Based on a two-step solution algorithm, reasonable solutions have been obtained, which reflect tradeoffs among economic cost, environmental requirements, and energy-supply security. Thus, the lower and upper solutions of IT2FSLP-REM would then help energy authorities adjust or justify allocation patterns of regional energy resources and services.     

Prioritizing groundwater remediation policies: a fuzzy compatibility analysis decision aid

The implementation of groundwater remediation strategies in contaminated areas includes not only a cost-benefit analysis and an environmental risk assessment but also another type of study called compatibility analysis. A compatibility analysis targets the interactions between remediation technologies and site characteristics, such as the types of active contaminants and their concentrations, soil composition and geological features, etc. The purpose of this analysis is to identify the most compatible remediation plan for the contaminated site. In this paper, we introduce a decision support system for the prioritization of remediation plans based on their estimated compatibility index. As this model receives data in terms of linguistic judgments and experts' opinions, we use fuzzy sets theory to deal with these uncertainties. First, we break down the concept of compatibility into the measurable factors. Then by using a multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) outline, we compute a factorial, regional and overall compatibility indicator for each plan. Finally, by comparing these generated indicators, we rank the remediation policies.     

Optimal Environmental Management Strategy and Implementation for Groundwater Contamination Prevention and Restoration

An innovative management strategy is proposed for optimized and integrated environmental management for regional or national groundwater contamination prevention and restoration allied with consideration of sustainable development. This management strategy accounts for availability of limited resources, human health and ecological risks from groundwater contamination, costs for groundwater protection measures, beneficial uses and values from groundwater protection, and sustainable development. Six different categories of costs are identified with regard to groundwater prevention and restoration. In addition, different environmental impacts from groundwater contamination including human health and ecological risks are individually taken into account. System optimization principles are implemented to accomplish decision-makings on the optimal resources allocations of the available resources or budgets to different existing contaminated sites and projected contamination sites for a maximal risk reduction. Established management constraints such as budget limitations under different categories of costs are satisfied at the optimal solution. A stepwise optimization process is proposed in which the first step is to select optimally a limited number of sites where remediation or prevention measures will be taken, from all the existing contaminated and projected contamination sites, based on a total regionally or nationally available budget in a certain time frame such as 10 years. Then, several optimization steps determined year-by-year optimal distributions of the available yearly budgets for those selected sites. A hypothetical case study is presented to demonstrate a practical implementation of the management strategy. Several issues pertaining to groundwater contamination exposure and risk assessments and remediation cost evaluations are briefly discussed for adequately understanding implementations of the management strategy.     

A human ecological assessment of air quality management: A convergence in economic and ecological thinking?

Traditional air pollution management practices are examined using the human ecological framework adopted by Boyden and others (1981) in their study of Hong Kong—the biohistorical or biosocial approach. The subsequent analysis of current air quality management practices assesses their effectiveness in protecting the overall health of both humans and the natural environment. The uncertainties inherent in air pollution management practices which emerge highlight the need to reduce emissions rather than rely on scientific knowledge to define clean air. The assessment also clearly defines roles for research in various areas such as atmospheric models, health effects, and environmental damage. The final recommendations emphasize the need for the introduction of such incentives to reduce emissions as economic instruments and warn against using health information to define clean air. Health and environmental damage information can, however, be used in risk assessment strategies together with atmospheric dispersion models.     

A Comparative Approach for Ranking Contaminated Sites Based on the Risk Assessment Paradigm Using Fuzzy PROMETHEE

A ranking system for contaminated sites based on comparative risk methodology using fuzzy Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) was developed in this article. It combines the concepts of fuzzy sets to represent uncertain site information with the PROMETHEE, a subgroup of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. Criteria are identified based on a combination of the attributes (toxicity, exposure, and receptors) associated with the potential human health and ecological risks posed by contaminated sites, chemical properties, site geology and hydrogeology and contaminant transport phenomena. Original site data are directly used avoiding the subjective assignment of scores to site attributes. When the input data are numeric and crisp the PROMETHEE method can be used. The Fuzzy PROMETHEE method is preferred when substantial uncertainties and subjectivities exist in site information. The PROMETHEE and fuzzy PROMETHEE methods are both used in this research to compare the sites. The case study shows that this methodology provides reasonable results.     

土壤中污染物迁移模型在油田环境影响评价中的应用

在石油的生产、运输、贮存以及炼制等过程中都存在泄油、漏油风险,各生产过程中的废弃物,如油类、重金属等各种化学物质也会危害水土环境,进而危及当地地下水源。文章分析了油田企业污染物对土壤及地下水的主要污染途径,提出了将污染物在土壤中的迁移模型用于预测污染物浓度的方法。建立了污染物由土壤迁至室内空气、地下水、农作物及由地下水转移到地表水的迁移数学模型,该模型可以运用于油田环境影响评价。     

大气资源资产价值核算技术研究初探——以深圳为例

大气资源是一类重要的"非实物态"自然资源资产。优质大气资源具有重要的生态系统服务价值,对人类生存发展起着至关重要的作用。目前,深圳市已将大气资源纳入自然资源资产负债表账户,但其生态系统服务价值尚未有系统性的量化核算方法,给自然资源资源资产负债表填报及领导干部离任审计等工作带来极大困难。本文在分析2015年深圳市大气环境质量现状的基础上,分别采用条件价值法、治理成本法及健康损害法对三类不同AQI等级的深圳市大气资源价值进行了初步核算,从而构建了大气环境质量价值核算体系。该体系可为深圳市大气资源资产负债表填制及领导干部离任审计提供技术支撑,同时为大气资源质量改善和治理提供管理依据,也为其他地区大气资源价值核算提供技术参考。     

Prediction of groundwater contamination with multivariate regression and probabilistic capture zones

Probabilistic capture zones are combined with a regression model and used as buffer zones around wells for Tobit regression analysis to predict contaminant concentration of groundwater in an agricultural region. A backward transport equation, which is a mathematical model based on the physical processes of solute transport, is used to delineate probabilistic capture zones. The probabilistic capture zone defines the area where contaminant discharge can have a direct influence, with pertinent probability, on the quality of groundwater pumped from a well. Tobit regression analysis is used to find the relationship between independent regression variables and a dependent variable, which is contaminant concentration in this study. The capture zone and the regression are combined into a model, and its applicability for prediction of nitrate concentration is tested in a small agricultural basin in Chuncheon, Korea, which is occupied mainly by vegetation fields, orchards, and small barns. Three cases of Model 1, Model 2, and Model 3 are compared in which buffer zones are circles, capture zones with probability over 0.1, and capture zones divided into sections with different probabilities, respectively. The resulting regression model describes nitrate concentration in terms of selected independent variables. When the concentrations are calculated with the model, the best fit with the observed concentrations was in Model 3. This result supports the applicability of the method proposed in this study to prediction of contaminant concentration of groundwater.     

Veterinary drugs in groundwater in a dairy region of central Argentina and risk assessment for human health

Veterinary drugs used in dairy production are potential contaminants of surface or groundwater sources, being able to affect human and environmental health. It is known that chronic exposure to antibiotics in low concentrations present in water can generate microbial resistance. This study aimed to evaluate the presence of veterinary drugs in 53 groundwater samples used for animal and human consumption, collected in dairy milking parlors, in an important milk-producing area of central Argentina, and to assess the risk to human health when they are used as drinking water. In 75% of the total samples analyzed, at least one veterinary drug was detected. The most frequently found drugs in water samples were the antibiotics tetracycline in 58.5% and oxytetracycline in 56.6%, and an anti-inflammatory, flunixin in 39.6%. In the water samples, the tetracycline and oxytetracycline concentrations were between 0.1 and 5.3 μg/L and flunixin concentrations were between 0.01 and 2.1 μg/L. The frequency of appearance and the concentration levels of the substances found in the water samples were evaluated according to the productivity, size, and production system (confined or pasture) of the dairy farms. Higher concentrations and proportions of water samples containing antibiotics were observed when the number of animals per dairy farm was >182 and when the productivity was high (>25 liters per animal per day). In the case of flunixin, the percentage of detection was similar in all evaluated categories. The risk assessment for children and adults, considering the intake of drinking water containing residues of these drugs, did not indicate a significant health risk. It would be advisable to evaluate other sources of drinking water, both surface and underground, in other regions of the country, to provide data to assess the impact of these substances and the other contaminants on environmental and human health.     

环境质量模糊综合评价及其应用

环境质量评价是环境科学的重要研究课题之一，作者评述了常用指标法的不足，提出用模糊数学中综合模糊评价法评价环境质量，建立了评价模式和计算程序，并用于科学城的环境质量评价，评价计算给出的多层次数据所提供的信息，与监测结果所体现的环境质量状况符合，所建模糊评价程序是适用的。     

美国环境与健康管理体制借鉴

美国为应对环境污染带来的公共健康灾难,建立了环保局与卫生部既分工又协作的体制,两个部门都关注环境污染对人类健康的危害。在职能上,环保局侧重于管制和"污染者",卫生部侧重于服务和"潜在受害者"。联邦层面,环保局与卫生部在管制方面和研究(信息共享)方面紧密合作。地方层面,环保局的主要职能是监督各州执行联邦标准,卫生部的主要职能是提供健康和医疗服务,并在具体工作中密切配合。借鉴美国的经验教训,明确建立"公众健康优先"的环境管理价值取向,针对环境与健康风险管理的特点推进生态环境统一监管机构改革,以法治思维和法治方法推进环境与健康治理体系建设;加强科学研究,加快建设环境与健康风险控制信息系统。     

A two-stage inexact joint-probabilistic programming method for air quality management under uncertainty

A two-stage inexact joint-probabilistic programming (TIJP) method is developed for planning a regional air quality management system with multiple pollutants and multiple sources. The TIJP method incorporates the techniques of two-stage stochastic programming, joint-probabilistic constraint programming and interval mathematical programming, where uncertainties expressed as probability distributions and interval values can be addressed. Moreover, it can not only examine the risk of violating joint-probability constraints, but also account for economic penalties as corrective measures against any infeasibility. The developed TIJP method is applied to a case study of a regional air pollution control problem, where the air quality index (AQI) is introduced for evaluation of the integrated air quality management system associated with multiple pollutants. The joint-probability exists in the environmental constraints for AQI, such that individual probabilistic constraints for each pollutant can be efficiently incorporated within the TIJP model. The results indicate that useful solutions for air quality management practices have been generated; they can help decision makers to identify desired pollution abatement strategies with minimized system cost and maximized environmental efficiency.     

Integrated Risk Framework for Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems

Onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) are becoming increasingly important for the treatment and dispersal of effluent in new urbanised developments that are not serviced by centralised wastewater collection and treatment systems. However, the current standards and guidelines adopted by many local authorities for assessing suitable site and soil conditions for OWTS are increasingly coming under scrutiny due to the public health and environmental impacts caused by poorly performing systems, in particular septic tank-soil adsorption systems. In order to achieve sustainable onsite wastewater treatment with minimal impacts on the environment and public health, more appropriate means of assessment are required. This paper highlights an integrated risk based approach for assessing the inherent hazards associated with OWTS in order to manage and mitigate the environmental and public health risks inherent with onsite wastewater treatment. In developing a sound and cohesive integrated risk framework for OWTS, several key issues must be recognised. These include the inclusion of relevant stakeholders throughout framework development, the integration of scientific knowledge, data and analysis with risk assessment and management ideals, and identification of the appropriate performance goals for successful management and mitigation of associated risks. These issues were addressed in the development of the risk framework to provide a generic approach to assessing risk from OWTS. The utilisation of the developed risk framework for achieving more appropriate assessment and management techniques for OWTS is presented in a case study for the Gold Coast region, Queensland State, Australia.     

Fuzzy Modeling of Interactions Among Environmental Stressors in the Ecosystem of Lake Koronia,Greece

The development of a model for assessing the impact and interactions of stressors in the ecosystem of Lake Koronia, based on fuzzy inference, is presented in this paper. The proposed fuzzy inference model assesses the synergistic interactions among several significant stressors on fish production. These stressors include industrial pollution, pesticide and nutrient usage due to agricultural activities, and water level decrease due to irrigation works. Apart from the experts knowledge, expressed in a set of fuzzy rules, a number of parameters such as pH, conductivity, biochemical and chemical oxygen demand, and nitrate concentration were used as stressor indicators. The proposed model is capable of simulating the effect of a large variety of environmental conditions, and it can be used as a dynamic tool for ecosystem risk assessment since it produces both qualitative and quantitative results, allowing for comparisons of predictions with on-going observational research and ecosystem monitoring. Its operation was successfully verified for a number of different conditions, ranging from low stressor impact to high stressor impact (where, in fact, the fish production was diminished). Moreover, the proposed fuzzy inference model can be used as a tool for the investigation of the behavior of the aquatic ecosystem under a large number of hypothetical environmental risk scenarios.