A STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING BASED APPROACH TO THE OPERATION OF A MULTI-RESERVOIR SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: An heuristic iterative technique based upon stochastic dynamic programming is presented for the analysis of the operation of a three reservoir ‘Y’ shaped hydroelectric system. The technique is initiated using historical inflow data for the downstream reservoir. At each iteration the optimal policies for the downstream hydroelectric generating unit are used to provide relative weightings or targets for operation of upstream reservoirs. New input inflows to the downstream reservoir are then obtained by running the historical streamflow record through the optimal policies for the upstream reservoirs. These flows are then used to develop a new operating policy for the downstream reservoir and hence new targets for the upstream reservoirs. The process is continued until the operating policies for each reservoir provide the same overall system benefit for two successive iterations. Results obtained from the procedure are compared to the results obtained by historical operation of the system. The procedure is shown to develop operating policies which give benefits which are as close to the historical benefits as can be expected given the choice of the number of storage state variables.     

ECONOMIC COSTS AND BENEFITS OF INSTREAM FLOW PROTECTION FOR ENDANGERED SPECIES IN AN INTERNATIONAL BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) restricts federal agencies from carrying out actions that jeopardize the continued existence of any endangered species. The U.S. Supreme Court has emphasized that the language of the ESA and its amendments permits few exceptions to the requirement to give endangered species the highest priority. This paper estimates economic costs associated with one measure for increasing instream flows to meet critical habitat requirements of the endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow. Impacts are derived from an integrated regional model of the hydrology, economics, and institutions of the upper Rio Grande Basin in Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Mexico. One proposal for providing minimum streamflows to protect the silvery minnow from extinction would provide guaranteed year round streamflows of at least 50 cubic feet per second in the San Acacia reach of the upper Rio Grande. These added flows can be accomplished through reduced surface diversions by New Mexico water users in dry years when flows would otherwise be reduced below the critical level required by the minnow. Based on a 44‐year simulation of future inflows to the basin, we find that some agricultural users suffer damages, but New Mexico water users as a whole do not incur damages from a policy that reduces stream depletions sufficiently to provide habitat for the minnow. The same policy actually benefits downstream users, producing average annual benefits of over $200,000 per year for west Texas agriculture, and over $1 million for El Paso municipal and industrial water users, respectively. Economic impacts of instream flow deliveries for the minnow are highest in drought years.     

Comparison of Machine Learning Models Performance on Simulating Reservoir Outflow: A Case Study of Two Reservoirs in Illinois,U.S.A.

Reservoir outflow is an important variable for understanding hydrological processes and water resource management. Natural streamflow variation, in addition to the streamflow regulation provided by dams and reservoirs, can make streamflow difficult to understand and predict. This makes them a challenge to accurately simulate hydrologic processes at a daily scale. In this study, three Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), were examined and compared to model reservoir outflow. Past, current, and future hydrologic and meteorological data were used as model inputs, and the outflow of next day was used as prediction. Simulation results demonstrated that all three models can reasonably simulate reservoir outflow. For Carlyle Lake, the coefficient of determination and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency were each close to one for the three models. The coefficient of determination, relative mean bias, and root mean square error indicated that the SVM performed better than the RF and ANN, but the SVM output displayed a larger relative mean bias than that from RF and ANN. For Lake Shelbyville, the ANN model performed better than RF and SVM when considering the coefficient of determination, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, relative mean bias, and root mean square error. The study results demonstrate that the three ML algorithms (RF, SVM, and ANN) are all promising tools for simulating reservoir outflow. Both the accuracy and efficacy of the three ML algorithms are considered to support practitioners in planning reservoir management.     

HYDROLOGIC AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF DROUGHT UNDER ALTERNATWE POLICY RESPONSES1

ABSTRACT: A severe sustained drought in the Colorado River Basin would cause economic damages throughout the Basin. An integrated hydrologic-economic-institutional model introduced here shows that consumptive water users in headwaters states are particularly vulnerable to very large shortfalls and hence large damages because their rights are effectively junior to downstream users. Chronic shortfalls to consumptive users relying on diversions in excess of rights under the Colorado River Compact are also possible. Nonconsumptive water uses (for hydropower and recreation) are severely affected during the worst drought years as instream flows are reduced and reservoirs are depleted. Damages to these uses exceeds those to consumptive uses, with the value of lost hydropower production the single largest economic impact of a severe sustained drought. Modeling of alternative policy responses to drought suggests three general policy approaches with particular promise for reducing damages. Consumptive use damages can be reduced by over 90 percent through reallocation from low to high valued uses and through reservoir storage strategies which minimize evaporation losses. Reservoir management to preserve minimum power pool levels for hydropower production (and to maintain reservoir recreation) may reduce damages to these nonconsumptive uses by over 30 percent, but it may increase consumptive use shortfalls.     

RESERVOIR OPERATION ANI EVALUATION OF DOWNSTREAM FLOW AUGMENTATION1

ABSTRACT: Operation of a storage‐based reservoir modifies the downstream flow usually to a value higher than that of natural flow in dry season. This could be important for irrigation, water supply, or power production as it is like an additional downstream benefit without any additional investment. This study addresses the operation of two proposed reservoirs and the downstream flow augmentation at an irrigation project located at the outlet of the Gandaki River basin in Nepal. The optimal operating policies of the reservoirs were determined using a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) model considering the maximization of power production. The modified flows downstream of the reservoirs were simulated by a simulation model using the optimal operating policy (for power maximization) and a synthetic long‐term inflow series. Comparing the existing flow (flow in river without reservoir operation) and the modified flow (flow after reservoir operation) at the irrigation project, the additional amount of flow was calculated. The reliability analysis indicated that the supply of irrigation could be increased by 25 to 100 percent of the existing supply over the dry season (January to April) with a reliability of more than 80 percent.     

How Run-of-River Operation Affects Hydropower Generation and Value

Regulated rivers in the United States are required to support human water uses while preserving aquatic ecosystems. However, the effectiveness of hydropower license requirements nationwide has not been demonstrated. One requirement that has become more common is “run-of-river” (ROR) operation, which restores a natural flow regime. It is widely believed that ROR requirements (1) are mandated to protect aquatic biota, (2) decrease hydropower generation per unit flow, and (3) decrease energy revenue. We tested these three assumptions by reviewing hydropower projects with license-mandated changes from peaking to ROR operation. We found that ROR operation was often prescribed in states with strong water-quality certification requirements and migratory fish species. Although benefits to aquatic resources were frequently cited, changes were often motivated by other considerations. After controlling for climate, the overall change in annual generation efficiency across projects because of the change in operation was not significant. However, significant decreases were detected at one quarter of individual hydropower projects. As expected, we observed a decrease in flow during peak demand at 7 of 10 projects. At the remaining projects, diurnal fluctuations actually increased because of operation of upstream storage projects. The economic implications of these results, including both producer costs and ecologic benefits, are discussed. We conclude that regional-scale studies of hydropower regulation, such as this one, are long overdue. Public dissemination of flow data, license provisions, and monitoring data by way of on-line access would facilitate regional policy analysis while increasing regulatory transparency and providing feedback to decision makers.     

US National Park Buffer Zones: Historical, Scientific, Social, and Legal Aspects

/ This review will trace the evolution of beyond boundary/buffer zone thinking and policy responses in the US National Park Service (NPS); address buffer zone science, benefits, and limitations; examine pertinent legal and social concerns; highlight some agency attempts to create buffer zone-like areas; and propose highlights of a protected area strategy, with buffer zones and corridors as one component. Some findings follow. The need to expand national parks to accommodate large ungulate movement began in the late 1800s, but the recognition that such land was also needed to thwart human impacts such as poaching surfaced in the 1930s. External park buffer zone recommendations by 1930s park scientists were not implemented, and other related adopted policy forgotten, supporting the belief that great insight can be discovered in forgotten institutional history. Buffer zones can remedy some impacts but not others, but their benefits are multiple and underappreciated. The science of buffer zones is very immature and deserves more attention. A present primary obstacle to creating park buffer zones and connecting corridors is a social climate opposing federal initiatives that may intrude on the rights of private landowners. Some proactive NPS bufferlike activity examples are reviewed, but there were none where permanent, complete, effective nonlegislated park buffer zones, derived from nonfederal property, circumscribed large natural area parks. The need for buffer zones and corridors may be a symptom of inadequate regional planning. Options to create buffer zones from private and federal land are outlined. A comprehensive, overall protected area strategy must include more than just buffer zones, with highlights provided. Because optimal regional planning for US national parks is now thwarted by land-use politics, American society must soon decide what is most crucial to future well-being. KEY WORDS: Buffer zone; Reserve; Boundary; Policy; Planning     

A heuristic approach to stochastic cutoff grade optimization for open pit mining complexes with multiple processing streams

Cutoff grade specifies the available supply of metallic ore from an open pit mine to the multiple processing streams of an open pit mining complex. An optimal cutoff grade strategy maximizes the net present value (NPV) of an open pit mining operation subject to the mining, processing, and marketing/refining capacity constraints. Even though, the quantities of material flowing from the mine to the market are influenced by the expected variation in the available metal content or inherent uncertainty in the supply of ore, the majority of cutoff grade optimization models not only disregard this aspect and may lead to unrealistic cash flows, but also they are limited in application to an open pit mining operation with single processing facility. The model proposed herein determines the optimal cutoff grade policy based on a stochastic framework that accounts for uncertainty in supply of ore to the multiple ore processing streams. An application on a large-scale open pit mining operation develops a unique cutoff grade policy along with a portfolio of mining, processing, and marketing/refining rates. Owing to the geological uncertainty, the approach addresses risk by showing a difference of 14% between the minimum and maximum production rates, cash flows and NPV.     

POLICY OBJECTWES AND ECONOMIC INCENTWES FOR CONTROLLING AGRICULTURAL SOURCES OF NONPOINT POLLUTION1

In this paper, we review the physical characteristics of agricultural non point pollution and discuss the implications for setting appropriate pollution control objectives and designing incentive-based pollution control policies. First, we discuss that policy objectives must be designed carefully to ensure positive economic net benefits can be expected from pollution control. Next, we review several classes of incentives and recommend the use of design-based incentives (i.e., incentives based on variable input use, management practices, and land use) for controlling non point pollution. Cost-effectiveness requires that incentives elicit three types of responses from farmers: (1) use variable inputs at appropriate levels, (2) adopt appropriate management practices, and (3) make appropriate land use decisions at the extensive margin of production. If a set of incentives fails to induce the correct responses, the resulting runoff levels and hence ambient pollution levels and damages will be too large relative to policy goals. A review of existing programs suggests that greater program coordination and improved targeting of incentives are needed for further water quality improvements. Alternatively, properly designed market-based systems may be effective alternatives. These systems would reduce overall pollution control costs by allowing markets to allocate point source and non point source control costs more efficiently.     

Landfill space consumption dynamics in the Lower Rio Grande Valley by grey integer programming-based games

The Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) region in South Texas emerges as a warehouse and transportation center between Central America and the US with positive growth impacts due to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). In 10 years time, a 39.8% population increase has resulted in a 25% boost in solid waste per capita disposal rate in the region. A landfill space shortage drives a need for landfill operators to understand their optimal management strategies in this highly-competitive market. Initially, a strategic plan for optimal solid waste pattern distribution minimizes net costs for cities. This is accomplished through a grey integer programming algorithm that encapsulates all uncertainty present in the solid waste system. Secondly, a series of grey integer submodels construct payoff matrices for a zero-sum two-person game. The ensuing game theoretic analysis is critical for evaluating optimal pricing strategies for tipping fees available to the most significant regional landfills (e.g. Browning-Ferris Industries (BFI) and City of Edinburg) as they compete over disposal contracts. The BFI landfill intrinsically benefits from its competitive pricing policy and central location to solid waste generators. The City of Edinburg landfill, on the other hand, wishes to secure its lucrative solid waste management revenue. It desires a gaming strategy backed by optimality that integrates ambiguity in solid waste generation, design capacity boundaries, and unitary shipping costs. Results show that a two-tiered analysis via grey integer programming-based games may pave the way for 'grey Nash equilibria' pricing tactics that will help the Edinburg landfill maintain its waste contracts.     

STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING FOR OPTIMUM RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT. For a multipurpose single reservoir a deterministic optimal operating policy can be readily devised by the dynamic programming method. However, this method can only be applied to sets of deterministic stream flows as might be used repetitively in a Monte Carlo study or possibly in a historical study. This paper reports a study in which an optimal operating policy for a multipurpose reservoir was determined, where the optimal operating policy is stated in terms of the state of the reservoir indicated by the storage volume and the river flow in the preceding month and uses a stochastic dynamic programming approach. Such a policy could be implemented in real time operation on a monthly basis or it could be used in a design study. As contrasted with deterministic dynamic programming, this method avoids the artificiality of using a single set of stream flows. The data for this study are the conditional probabilities of the stream flow in successive months, the physical features of the reservoir in question, and the return functions and constraints under which the system operates.     

THERMAL DISCHARGES AND PUBLIC POLICY DEVELOPMENT1

ABSTRACT The generation of electric energy in steam-electric power plants is accompanied by the discharge of large quantities of waste heat into the environment. In most cases, this heat is released into natural bodies of water at temperatures relatively close to ambient. In certain locations, such as the Chesapeake Bay, discharges of waste heat may triple in the next decade. It is expected that past practices of thermal discharge, if continued into the future, will result in significant damages to other legitimate users of the water resource, both present and future. This paper reviews the economic causes of these potential damages, and describes the role of public policy as one of removing such causes through regulation incentive or intervention. Possible public policies are reviewed, including prohibition, standards, various types of dollar incentives such as taxes and subsidies, marketable effluent permits, and direct government investment. The innovative power plant siting program recently adopted in Maryland is also discussed. It is concluded that no statements can be made regarding the comparative efficiency or effectiveness of the various policies at the present state of knowledge. It is recommended that policy-makers adopt mixed strategies, preserving as many options as possible for dealing with similar problems in the future.     

An analysis of the effect of public policy on community garden organisations in Edinburgh

Several community gardens have been developed in Edinburgh over the past five years, which reflects renewed interest in “grow your own” projects, and the recognition of the associated environmental and social health benefits they provide. Community gardens have been included in a range of policy documents at national and local levels, acknowledging their contribution to sustainable food systems, health and well-being and environment and biodiversity. This research explores how public policy influences community garden practice and, reflexively, how organisations running community gardens in the third sector are represented in public policy frameworks. A mixed methodology of desk-based research of policy documents, associated reports and academic literature; and informal interviews with community gardens staff and organisers was utilised. It was found that while community gardens are represented in policy, at a national level the framing of community gardens and related food growing projects as “alternative” hinders their full potential. Community gardens fulfil a wide range of policy goals, particularly in the health, social capital and well-being sectors which can minimise their capacity to contribute to local food production in a substantial way. It is proposed that community gardens could be normalised by promoting gardens in visible locations in neighbourhoods and within local plans; and through reflexive strategic and community action utilising a reasoning backwards approach to planning and funding.     

Is research keeping up with changes in landscape policy? A review of the literature

Several innovative directions for landscape policy development and implementation have emerged over recent years. These include: (i) an expansion of scope to include all landscape aspects and landscape types, (ii) an increased emphasis on public participation, (iii) a focus on designing measures appropriate for different contexts and scales, and (iv) encouraging support for capacity-building. In this paper, we evaluate the extent to which these policy directions are reflected in the practice of academic landscape research. We evaluate all research papers published in three leading landscape journals over six years, as well as published research papers relating directly to the European Landscape Convention. The latter, which was adopted in 2000, establishes a framework for landscape protection, planning and management in Europe and is to date the only international legal instrument of its kind. Results indicate that whilst policy innovations do not appear to be a major stimulus for academic research, studies nevertheless address a range of landscape aspects, types and scales (albeit with a slight bias towards bio-physical landscape aspects). However, geographical representativeness of research is weak and dominated by the United States and northern/western Europe, and research capacity likewise appears to be unevenly distributed. Landscape research is also limited in the extent to which it involves stakeholders or develops innovative methods for doing so, notwithstanding that this remains a key challenge for policy-makers. Results point to the potential for landscape research to address areas (topical and geographical) which have received little attention to date, as well as suggesting mutual benefits of stronger links between policy and academia.     

DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING FOR OPTIMAL CAPACITY EXPANSION OF WASTEWATER TREATMENT PLANTS1

ABSTRACT: A dynamic programming procedure for the planning and operation of a wastewater treatment plant over a long period of time is presented. In order to meet increased demands for wastewater treatment in the future, the expansion of existing plants must be considered. Dynamic programming is employed to determine the optimal schedule of expansion at each plant, simultaneously determining an optimal operating policy (treatment level). The optimal schedule of expansion at each plant depends on the following: (1) the shape of the projected wastewater demand function; (2) the interest rate used; (3) the locations and capacities of the facilities available; and (4) the rates of increase of the costs of construction, labor, chemicals, and electric power. An example illustrating the use of the procedure is presented.     

ECONOMIC DECISION MAKING IN THE USE OF MEMBRANE DESALINATION FOR BRACKISH SUPPLIES1

ABSTRACT: An analysis is undertaken to determine the conditions under which membrane desalination becomes an economically preferable alternative for treating brackish water supplies. While membrane desalination is more expensive than conventional treatment, it affords benefits beyond those of conventional processes by reducing salinity related damages. An important and largely unexplored issue regards how the added cost of desalination compares to its benefits in terms of damages avoided. A comparative analysis is undertaken over a range of scenarios with the objective of identifying the treatment technology the leads to the lowest “total economic cost,” a term described by the sum of costs related to supply, treatment, and salinity related damages. Using data from a representative region, desalination yields the lowest total economic cost for source waters that exceed “threshold” salinity concentrations below 1,000 mg/l total dissolved solids (TDS). In instances where standard conventional processes require upgrades to maintain compliance with pending regulations (e.g., disinfection byproducts), the cost gap between membrane and conventional processes is reduced and the threshold concentration lowered. Given the inherent uncertainty in both treatment cost and damage estimates, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine which factors have the greatest impact on the treatment decision. Results suggest that considering salinity related damages when selecting a treatment technology makes membrane desalination of brackish waters economically attractive under a wider range of circumstances.     

CONSERVATIONAL WATER PRICING FOR INCREASED WATER SUPPLY BENEFITS1

ABSTRACT: A study was undertaken to see if benefits from water supply could be increased by utilizing price-usage information in reservoir design studies. Three pricing policies were examined. The first policy assumed no price-use relationship, and quantity demanded was based on existing community usage with a low water rate. The price of water was set to recover system costs. A price-use relationship was assumed in the second policy and the water rate was constant. The price of water was determined from the associated system which provided maximum expected net benefits. The third policy assumed the price-use relationship and the price charged for water during each billing period was a non-linear function of storage which increased as the amount of water in storage at the beginning of the period decreased. It was found that the use of the conservation pricing policies substantially reduced storage requirements while providing demonstrable net benefits to the community and a large average supply. The conservation pricing policies substantially lowered the average price paid for water. The effect of uncertainty in consumer response to changes in price was studied by using a probabilistic price-use relationship. This uncertainty did not significantly reduce the effectiveness of the conservation policy. It was concluded that demand management by the use of a proper pricing policy could significantly increase net water supply benefits to a community.     

Integrating long-term stewardship goals into the remediation process: natural resource damages and the Department of Energy

The United States and other developed countries are faced with restoring and managing degraded ecosystems. Evaluations of the degradation of ecological resources can be used for determining ecological risk, making remediation or restoration decisions, aiding stakeholders with future land use decisions, and assessing natural resource damages. Department of Energy (DOE) lands provide a useful case study for examining degradation of ecological resources in light of past or present land uses and natural resource damage assessment (NRDA). We suggest that past site history should be incorporated into the cleanup and restoration phase to reduce the ultimate NRDA costs, and hasten resource recovery. The lands that DOE purchased over 50 years ago ranged from relatively undisturbed to heavily impacted farmland, and the impact that occurred from DOE occupation varies from regeneration of natural ecosystems (benefits) to increased exposure to several stressors (negative effects). During the time of the DOE releases, other changes occurred on the lands, including recovery from the disturbance effects of farming, grazing, and residential occupation, and the cessation of human disturbance. Thus, the injury to natural resources that occurred as a result of chemical and radiological releases occurred on top of recovery of already degraded systems. Both spatial (size and dispersion of patch types) and temporal (past/present/future land use and ecological condition) components are critical aspects of resource evaluation, restoration, and NRDA. For many DOE sites, integrating natural resource restoration with remediation to reduce or eliminate the need for NRDA could be a win-win situation for both responsible parties and natural resource trustees by eliminating costly NRDAs by both sides, and by restoring natural resources to a level that satisfies the trustees, while being cost-effective for the responsible parties. It requires integration of remediation, restoration, and end-state planning to a greater degree than is currently done at most DOE sites.     

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: This research investigates the benefits of forecasting in water supply systems. Questions relating operational losses to forecast period and accuracy are addressed. Some simple available forecasting techniques are assessed for their accuracy and applicability. These issues are addressed through the use of a simulation model of the Cedar and South Fork Tolt Rivers, where the system is modeled as a single purpose reservoir supplying municipal and industrial water to the Seattle metropolitan area. The following conclusions were made for this system: (1) reservoir operation deteriorates markedly with the loss of forecast accuracy; (2) the optimal length of forecasting period is five months; (3) reservoir operation may be improved by as much as 88 percent if perfect predictive abilities are available; (4) the mean of the historic data is not recommended to predict future flows because Markov methods are always superior; and (5) lag-one autoregressive Markov schemes exhibit about a 9 percent improvement in operation over no forecasting.     

Redressing China’s Strategy of Water Resource Exploitation

China, with the confrontation of water-related problems as an element of its long history, has been investing heavily in water engineering projects over the past few decades based on the assumption that these projects can solve its water problems. However, the anticipated benefits did not really occur, or at least not as large as expected. Instead, the results involved additional frustrations, such as biodiversity losses and human-induced disasters (i.e., landslides and earthquakes). Given its inherent shortcomings, the present engineering-dominated strategy for the management of water resources cannot help solve China’s water problems and achieve its goal of low-carbon transformation. Therefore, the present strategy for water resources exploitation needs to be reevaluated and redressed. A policy change to achieve better management of Chinese rivers is urgently needed.