Model Calculations of Total Maximum Daily Loads of Mercury for Drainage Lakes1

Abstract: The Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework watershed model was enhanced to simulate the transport and fate of mercury and to calculate the fish mercury concentrations (FMC) attained by fish through the food web. The model was applied to Western Lake Superior Basin of Minnesota, which has many peat lands and lakes. Topographic, land use, and soil data were used to set up the model. Meteorology and precipitation chemistry data from nearby monitoring stations were compiled to drive the model. Simulated flow and mercury concentrations for several stream stations were comparable to available data. The model was used to perform mercury total maximum daily load calculations for two contrasting drainage lakes (Wild Rice Lake and Whiteface Reservoir). The model results for wet deposition, dry deposition, evasion, watershed yield, and soil sequestration of mercury were comparable with available actual data. The model predicted lake ice cover from November to April and weak stratification in summer, typical of shallow lakes in cold regions. The simulated sulfate decrease and methylmercury increase near the lake bottom in late summer are caused by sulfate reduction and mercury methylation that occur in the surficial sediment. Simulated FMC were within the range of observed values and the R² of correlation between the simulated and observed FMC was 0.77. Under the 1989‐2004 base condition, the average simulated FMC of four‐year‐old walleye was 0.31 μg/g for Whiteface Reservoir and 0.15 μg/g for Wild Rice Lake. The FMC criterion in Minnesota is 0.2 μg/g. Wild Rice Lake already meets this criterion without any load reduction. The model showed that a 65% reduction in atmospheric mercury deposition will not, by itself, allow Whiteface Reservoir to meet the criterion in 15 years. Additional best management practices will be needed to reduce 50% of the watershed input.     

MODELING STUDIES FOR PLANNING: THE GREEN BAY PROJECT1

ABSTRACT: A major contaminant monitoring and modeling study is underway for Green Bay, Lake Michigan. Monitoring programs in support of contaminant modeling of large waterbodies, such as for Green Bay, are expensive and their extent is often limited by budget limitations, laboratory capacity, and logistic constraints. Therefore, it is imperative that available resources be used in the most efficient manner possible. This use, or allocation of resources, may be aided through the application of readily available models in the planning stages of projects. To aid in the planning effort for the Green Bay project, a workshop was held and studies designed to aid in the allocation of resources for a year-long intensive field study. Physical/chemical and food chain models were applied using historical data to aid in project planning by identifying processes having the greatest impact on the predictive capability of mass balance models. Studies were also conducted to estimate errors in computed tributary loadings and in-Bay concentrations and contaminant mass associated with different sampling strategies. The studies contributed to the overall project design, which was a collaborative effort with many participants involved in budgeting, field data collection, analysis, processing of data, quality assurance, data management and modeling activities.     

Patternising phytoplankton dynamics of two shallow lakes in response to restoration measures by applying non-supervised artificial neural networks

Long-term time-series data sets of two shallow Dutch lakes, Lake Veluwemeer and Lake Wolderwijd were subjected to ordination and clustering by means of non-supervised artificial neural networks (ANN). Splitting of the data sets into sub-series corresponding with three different management periods have allowed a comparative analysis of both the short-term seasonal and long-term phytoplankton dynamics in relation to the restoration measures. The lakes were considered as hyper-eutrophic and have been managed both with bottom-up and top-down management approaches. Results of the study have demonstrated that non-supervised ANN allow to elucidate causal relationships of complex ecological processes (1) within the specific genus, Oscillatoria and Scenedesmus and (2) the combination of external nutrient control and in-lake food web manipulation of the two lakes achieved to control eutrophication.     

Water Quality and Plankton in the United States Nearshore Waters of Lake Huron

Our goal in the development of a nearshore monitoring method has been to evaluate and refine an in situ mapping approach to assess the nearshore waters across the Great Lakes. The report here for Lake Huron is part of a broader effort being conducted across all five Great Lakes. We conducted an intensive survey for the United States nearshore of Lake Huron along a continuous shoreline transect (523?km) from Port Huron, Michigan, to Detour Passage. A depth contour of 20?m was towed with a conductivity-temperature depth profiler, fluorometer, transmissometer, and laser optical plankton counter. Multiple cross-contour tows (10-30?m) on the cruise dates were used to characterize the variability across a broader range of the nearshore. The cross-contour tows were comparable with the alongshore contour indicating that the 20-m contour does a good job of representing the nearshore region (10-30?m). Strong correlations were observed between water quality and spatially associated watershed land use. A repeat tow separated by several weeks investigated temporal variability in spatial patterns within a summer season. Strong correlations were observed across each variable for the temporal repeat across broad- and fine-scale spatial dimensions. The survey results for Lake Huron nearshore are briefly compared with a similar nearshore survey in Lake Superior. The biomass concentrations of lower food web components of Lake Huron were notably approximately 54-59?% of those in Lake Superior. The towed instrumentation survey supported the recent view of a change in Lake Huron to an ultra-oligotrophic state, which has been uncharacteristic in recent history.     

Probabilistic fugacity analysis of Lake Pontchartrain pollution after Hurricane Katrina

After Hurricane Katrina passed through the US Gulf Coast in August 2005, floodwaters covering New Orleans were pumped into Lake Pontchartrain as part of the rehabilitation process in order to make the city habitable again. The long-term consequences of this environmentally critical decision were difficult to assess at the time and were left to observation. In the aftermath of these natural disasters, and in cases of emergency, the proactive use of screening level models may prove to be an important factor in making appropriate decisions to identify cost effective and environmentally friendly mitigation solutions. In this paper, we propose such a model and demonstrate its use through the application of several hypothetical scenarios to examine the likely response of Lake Pontchartrain to the contaminant loading that were possibly in the New Orleans floodwaters. For this purpose, an unsteady-state fugacity model was developed in order to examine the environmental effects of contaminants with different physicochemical characteristics on Lake Pontchartrain. The three representative contaminants selected for this purpose are benzene, atrazine, and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). The proposed approach yields continuous fugacity values for contaminants in the water, air, and sediment compartments of the lake system which are analogous to concentrations. Since contaminant data for the floodwaters are limited, an uncertainty analysis was also performed in this study. The effects of uncertainty in the model parameters were investigated through Monte Carlo analysis. Results indicate that the acceptable recovery of Lake Pontchartrain will require a long period of time. The computed time range for the levels of the three contaminants considered in this study to decrease to maximum contaminant levels (MCLs) is about 1 year to 68 years. The model can be implemented to assess the possible extent of damage inflicted by any storm event on the natural water resources of Southern Louisiana or similar environments elsewhere. Furthermore, the model developed can be used as a useful decision-making tool for planning and remediation in similar emergency situations by examining various potential contamination scenarios and their consequences.     

A DYNAMIC BACTERIAL MODEL FOR A RECREATIONAL LAKE1

ABSTRACT A dynamic mathematical model was constructed to examine bacterial contamination problems affecting Ford Lake, a small recreational lake in Southeast Michigan. The model was calibrated and verified using summer dry weather averaged data and data from three wet weather surveys. Model simulations demonstrated that the major bacterial contamination was attributable to storm related perturbations affecting two point sources: the Huron River and the Ypsilanti Sewage Treatment Plant. The nonpoint source contribution was relatively minor. The Model is currently being used by the State of Michigan Department of Natural Resources as a management tool for assessing the effectiveness of planned pollution abatement strategies     

REEXAMINING BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES FOR IMPROVING WATER QUALITY IN URBAN WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Municipalities will be implementing structural best management practices at increasing rates in their effort to comply with Phase II of the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES). However, there is evidence that structural best management practices (BMPs) by themselves may be insufficient to attain desired water quality standards. This paper reports on an analysis of the median removal efficiencies of structural BMPs and compares them to removal efficiencies estimated as being necessary to attain water quality standards in the Rouge River in Detroit, Michigan. Eight water quality parameters are reviewed using data collected from 1994 to 1999 in the Rouge River. Currently, five of the eight parameters in the Rouge River including bacteria, biochemical oxygen demand, and total suspended solids (TSS) exceed the required water quality standards. The reported analysis of structural BMP efficiencies reveals that structural BMPs appear capable of reducing only some of the pollutants of concern to acceptable levels.     

Impending Recovery of Kirtland's Warbler: Case Study in the Effectiveness of the Endangered Species Act

Dendroica kirtlandii ). This particular recovery program actually began before passage of the federal ESA, when biologists alerted the Michigan Department of Natural Resources of the perilously low population of this bird, which only breeds under jack pine (Pinus banksiana) trees in Michigan. By the time an ESA Recovery Team was formed for this bird in 1975 (the first such team created under the ESA), a legacy of consensus and interagency cooperation was well established. This has led to successful efforts at habitat management and control of its nest parasite, the brown-headed cowbird (Molothrus ater). While the Kirtland's warbler is not yet recovered, its population is near an all-time high, and its recovery is possible within the next decade. When (and if) this happens, it will be clearly attributable to this successful model of federalism for natural resources management.     

Interaction and influence of two creeks on Escherichia coli concentrations of nearby beaches: exploration of predictability and mechanisms

The impact of river outfalls on beach water quality depends on numerous interacting factors. The delivery of contaminants by multiple creeks greatly complicates understanding of the source contributions, especially when pollution might originate up- or down-coast of beaches. We studied two beaches along Lake Michigan that are located between two creek outfalls to determine the hydrometeorologic factors influencing near-shore microbiologic water quality and the relative impact of the creeks. The creeks continuously delivered water with high concentrations of Escherichia coli to Lake Michigan, and the direction of transport of these bacteria was affected by current direction. Current direction reversals were associated with elevated E. coli concentrations at Central Avenue beach. Rainfall, barometric pressure, wave height, wave period, and creek specific conductance were significantly related to E. coli concentration at the beaches and were the parameters used in predictive models that best described E. coli variation at the two beaches. Multiple inputs to numerous beaches complicates the analysis and understanding of the relative relationship of sources but affords opportunities for showing how these complex creek inputs might interact to yield collective or individual effects on beach water quality.     

A minimum data set of water quality parameters to assess and compare treatment efficiency of stormwater facilities

Urban stormwater runoff is often of poor quality, impacting aquatic ecosystems and limiting the use of stormwater runoff for recreational purposes. Several stormwater treatment facilities (STFs) are in operation or at the pilot testing stage, but their efficiencies are neither well documented nor easily compared due to the complex contaminant profile of stormwater and the highly variable runoff hydrograph. On the basis of a review of available data sets on urban stormwater quality and environmental contaminant behavior, we suggest a few carefully selected contaminant parameters (the minimum data set) to be obligatory when assessing and comparing the efficiency of STFs. Consistent use of the minimum data set in all future monitoring schemes for STFs will ensure broad-spectrum testing at low costs and strengthen comparability among facilities. The proposed minimum data set includes: (i) fine fraction of suspended solids (<63 μm), (ii) total concentrations of zinc and copper, (iii) total concentrations of phenanthrene, fluoranthene, and benzo(b,k)fluoranthene, and (iv) total concentrations of phosphorus and nitrogen. Indicator pathogens and other specific contaminants (i.e., chromium, pesticides, phenols) may be added if recreational or certain catchment-scale objectives are to be met. Issues that need further investigation have been identified during the iterative process of developing the minimum data set.     

Contaminant Exposure and Effects in Red-Winged Blackbirds Inhabiting Stormwater Retention Ponds

Stormwater wetlands are created to retain water from storms and snow melt to reduce sediment, nutrient, and contaminant pollution of natural waterways in metropolitan areas. However, they are often a source of attractive habitat to wetland-associated wildlife. In this study of 12 stormwater wetlands and a larger, older reference site, elevated concentrations of zinc and copper were found in sediments and carcasses of 8-day-old red-winged blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) nestlings inhabiting stormwater sites. Although nesting success in the stormwater wetlands was comparable to national averages, sediment zinc concentrations correlated with clutch size, hatching success, fledgling success, and Mayfield nest success, suggesting that the nestlings may have been stressed and impaired by elevated zinc. This stress may have been direct on the nestlings or indirect through effects on the availability of food organisms.Published online     

LAKE MICHIGAN DIVERSION - STREAM QUALITY PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: By United States Supreme Court action, the diversion of water from Lake Michigan and the Lake Michigan Drainage Basin in the Metropolitan Chicago Area is regulated at an annual maximum rate of 3,200 cfs. Approximately 1,700 cfs of this diversion is used for water supply, and the remaining 1,500 cfs consists primarily of stormwater runoff with lesser amounts of direct lake diversion, such as lockage and leakage, navigational makeup water flows, and discretionary diversion needed to maintain water quality standards in the Metropolitan Sanitary District of Greater Chicago's basic waterways. In order to assess the schedule of its discretionary diversion needs, the District, using a computer model of its basic waterway system, has calculated the minimum discretionary diversion requirements for projected water quality conditions as successive elements of the District's water pollution control program are completed. The results of these analyses can be used as a basis for developing plans for future allocations of the limited supply of Lake Michigan water to other uses such as domestic water supply, when and if such supplies become available.     

Discharge and Nutrient Transport between Lakes in a Hydrologically Complex Area of Voyageurs National Park,Minnesota, 2010‐2012

An acoustic Doppler velocity meter (ADVM) was deployed in the narrows between Namakan and Kabetogama Lakes in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota, from November 3, 2010, through October 3, 2012. The ADVM can account for wind, seiche, and changing flow direction in hydrologically complex areas. The objectives were to (1) estimate discharge and document the direction of water flow, (2) assess whether specific conductance can be used to determine flow direction, and (3) document nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations at the narrows. The discharge direction through the narrows was seasonal. Water generally flowed out of Kabetogama Lake and into Namakan Lake throughout the ice‐covered season. During spring, water flow was generally from Namakan Lake to Kabetogama Lake. During the summer and fall, the water flowed in both directions, affected in part by wind. Water flowed into Namakan Lake 70% of water year 2011 and 56% of water year 2012. Nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations were highest during the summer months when water‐flow direction was unpredictable. The use of an ADVM was effective for assessing flow direction and provided flow direction under ice. The results indicated the eutrophic Kabetogama Lake may have a negative effect on the more pristine Namakan Lake. The results also provide data on the effects of the current water‐level management plan and may help determine if adjustments are necessary to help protect the aquatic ecosystem of Voyageurs National Park.     

Forecasting land use change and its environmental impact at a watershed scale

Urban expansion is a major driving force altering local and regional hydrology and increasing non-point source (NPS) pollution. To explore these environmental consequences of urbanization, land use change was forecast, and long-term runoff and NPS pollution were assessed in the Muskegon River watershed, located on the eastern coast of Lake Michigan. A land use change model, LTM, and a web-based environmental impact model, L-THIA, were used in this study. The outcomes indicated the watershed would likely be subjected to impacts from urbanization on runoff and some types of NPS pollution. Urbanization will slightly or considerably increase runoff volume, depending on the development rate, slightly increase nutrient losses in runoff, but significantly increase losses of oil and grease and certain heavy metals in runoff. The spatial variation of urbanization and its impact were also evaluated at the subwatershed scale and showed subwatersheds along the coast of the lake and close to cities would have runoff and nitrogen impact. The results of this study have significant implications for urban planning and decision making in an effort to protect and remediate water and habitat quality of Muskegon Lake, which is one of Lake Michigan's Areas of Concern (AOC), and the techniques described here can be used in other areas.     

Biotechnology is not compatible with sustainable agriculture

Biotechnology increases commercialization of food production, which competes with food for home use. Most people in the world grow their own food, and are more secure without the mediation of the market. To the extent that biotechnology enhances market competitiveness, world food security will decrease. This instability will result in a greater gap between rich and poor, increasing poverty of women and children, less ability and incentive to protect the environment, and greater need for militarization to maintain order. Therefore, biotechnology should be discouraged. An active program to protect and strengthen local food production and to decrease reliance on industrial agriculture should be promoted.     

COMPUTER SIMULATION OF RECREATIONAL BOATING ACTIVITIES1

ABSTRACT This paper is concerned with the portion of harbor improvement planning which identifies the refuge and transient service needs at points along Lake Michigan. The travel behavior model developed to predict this use is sensitive to five criteria: boater characteristics which influence travel behavior; entry rates into the Lake from each access site; site characteristics; weather conditions; and planning parameters. The information provided by this computer model includes: the number of boaters demanding a given access point at a given time; the length of stay at that point; the probability of travel to specific access sites in given amounts of time; and those facilities used during a specified time period. The simulation modelling boat movement consists of two parts; a traffic generation routine and an activity simulation. The former schedules the entry of boats into the Lake from each site and the latter establishes the probabilistic movement of boats on the Lake. This simulation of interport movements and port activities enables the planner to investigate some impacts of alternative small boat harbor development plans.     

LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN NONPOINT SOURCE PHOSPHORUS ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: Existing land use data were used to estimate nonpoint source phosphorus loads to Lake Champlain (Vermont/New York/Quebec) in a loading function model that combined P concentration coefficients with regional hydrologic data. The estimates were verified against monitored loading data, then used to assess the relative magnitudes of contributions from major land uses and regions of the Lake Champlain Basin. The Basin is comprised of 62 percent forest, 28 percent agricultural land, 3 percent urban land, and 7 percent water. The best-fit model estimated an annual total P load of 457 mt/year, which did not differ significantly from the 458 metric tons/year measured for an average hydrologic year, and accurately predicted loads from major tributaries. Agriculture contributes 66 percent of the annual nonpoint source P load to Lake Champlain; urban and forest land contribute 18 percent and 16 percent, respectively. Because agricultural land contributes most nonpoint source P to Lake Champlain, load reduction effort must deal with agricultural sources. However, because the urban 3 percent of the basin contributes 18 percent of the estimated load, high load reduction efficiencies might be achieved by addressing urban sources. This assessment clearly demonstrated the relationship between land use and P loads in the Lake Champlain Basin, a prerequisite for policy-makers to endorse a P management strategy requiring changes in land use and management.     

Potential Long-Term Ecological Impacts Caused by Disturbance of Contaminated Sediments:A Case Study

Several submerged barges were recently removed from the Passaic River, New Jersey, USA, in two areas (areas 1 and 2) where contaminated sediments are known to exist. During removal of the single barge in area 1, elevated turbidity levels and chemical parameters were measured. Greater increases were measured in area 2, where several barges were removed. In both areas, water column concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and several metals exceeded one or more water quality criteria; turbidity levels in area 2 also exceeded regulatory criteria. Potential chemical bioaccumulation from the water column into residential aquatic receptors was estimated using standard models and assumptions. The modeled results predicted that steady-state tissue concentrations of bioaccumulative chemicals would not occur as a result of the brief increase in water column concentrations that occurred during barge removal but that metals and PCDD/Fs could bioaccumulate to levels that exceed regulatory ecological criteria during long-term sediment disturbance activities. In addition, based on some simplistic assumptions regarding settling of suspended sediments, we estimate that chemical bioaccumulation from surface sediments into the food web could result in substantial increases in PCDD/F body burdens in the benthic forage fish, mummichog. Our findings are consistent with the limited number of field studies that have measured increased body burdens of bioaccumulative chemicals following dredging. We suggest that, prior to consideration of extensive dredging as a remedial alternative for any river system, the potential significant and long-term impacts on the food web must be evaluated.     

Effects of Fish Stocking on Ecosystem Services: An Overview and Case Study Using the Stockholm Archipelago

In this article, we focus on documented and possible effects of fish stocking in terms of ecosystem services. The increasing use of fish stocking between 1970 and 2000 in the semiurban setting of Stockholm archipelago, Sweden, is used as case study. The objective is to analyze this management practice from an ecosystem perspective, accounting for both the ecological and social context of releasing fish. The results show that enhancements of four native species (Salmo S. trutta, Salmo salar, Stizostedion lucioperca, and Anguilla anguilla) have dominated over new introductions of one nonnative species. (Oncorhynchus mykiss). The major objective has been to increase fish catches for local resource users. Involved stakeholders include three management agencies, one hydropower company, and several local sport fishing associations. Documented effects focus on recapture and production rates. However, our analysis suggests that additional positive or negative effects on biodiversity, food web dynamics, mobile links, or ecological information may also result, with possible consequences for the long-term provision of food, game, and aesthetic values. We conclude that a more adaptive and cooperative management approach could benefit from a deeper analysis of where, when, and what species is released, by whom, which stakeholders that use the fish and those ecosystem services the fish generate, and of the role of formal and informal institutions for monitoring and evaluating the success of releasing fish.     

“Nutrient Inputs to the Laurentian Great Lakes by Source and Watershed Estimated Using SPARROW Watershed Models” by Dale M. Robertson and David A. Saad2

Richards, R. Peter, Ibrahim Alameddine, J. David Allan, David B. Baker, Nathan S. Bosch, Remegio Confesor, Joseph V. DePinto, David M. Dolan, Jeffrey M. Reutter, and Donald Scavia, 2012. Discussion –“Nutrient Inputs to the Laurentian Great Lakes by Source and Watershed Estimated Using SPARROW Watershed Models” by Dale M. Robertson and David A. Saad. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐10. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12006 Abstract: Results from the Upper Midwest Major River Basin (MRB3) SPARROW model and underlying Fluxmaster load estimates were compared with detailed data available in the Lake Erie and Ohio River watersheds. Fluxmaster and SPARROW estimates of tributary loads tend to be biased low for total phosphorus and high for total nitrogen. These and other limitations of the application led to an overestimation of the relative contribution of point sources vs. nonpoint sources of phosphorus to eutrophication conditions in Lake Erie, when compared with direct estimates for data‐rich Ohio tributaries. These limitations include the use of a decade‐old reference point (2002), lack of modeling of dissolved phosphorus, lack of inclusion of inputs from the Canadian Lake Erie watersheds and from Lake Huron, and the choice to summarize results for the entire United States Lake Erie watershed, as opposed to the key Western and Central Basin watersheds that drive Lake Erie’s eutrophication processes. Although the MRB3 SPARROW model helps to meet a critical need by modeling unmonitored watersheds and ranking rivers by their estimated relative contributions, we recommend caution in use of the MRB3 SPARRROW model for Lake Erie management, and argue that the management of agricultural nonpoint sources should continue to be the primary focus for the Western and Central Basins of Lake Erie.