Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials—a combined evaluation of past and future trends

This paper develops a method for identifying and assessing long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. The method is based on a combined evaluation of past and future supply and demand trends. By analysing raw material boom and bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying critical market situations. By applying the method, risks for supply shortage may be identified at an early stage. In addition, a numerical evaluation model has been developed for better comparison between various mineral raw materials. Compared to other assessment methods this method uses specific benchmarks for each raw material to better assess supply risks. The method is embedded within a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach.     

Is the convenience yield a good indicator of a commodity's supply risk?

A strong increase in the demand for some commodities over the last decade will have a major impact on their future supply situation. Of increasing importance, therefore, is an assessment of a commodity's criticality, and especially its supply risk, by appropriate indicators. The literature has proposed numerous indicators of the supply risk. Here, we use the convenience yield of commodity futures as a supply risk indicator to address some of the major shortcomings of existing indicators, especially regarding their predictive power. This paper aims to test the applicability of the convenience yield as an indicator of a commodity's future supply risk. Therefore, we calculate historical convenience yields for 3-, 15-, and 27-month futures contracts for five major industrial metals (aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc) during the period 1999 to 2011. We compare the convenience yields at the beginning of the contract period to known indicators at maturity to find that the convenience yield has generally predictive power for the static stock lifetime (i.e., inventory volume/turnover) and future spot prices. Furthermore, we find that, with some restrictions, the convenience yield is an applicable indicator of a commodity's supply risk.     

An innovative sustainability assessment for urban wastewater infrastructure and its application in Chengdu, China

Sustainability assessments are an increasingly common tool for measuring progress towards sustainable development. Despite their popularity, sustainability assessments and the indicators that compose them are said to have had little impact on the policy arena. In this paper we discuss four attributes that we contend will improve the use of sustainability assessments to guide decision making: non-compartmentalization, site specificity, built-in guidance for target setting, and ability to measure active sustainability. We present a novel assessment tool for wastewater treatment infrastructure that illustrates these attributes. The assessment is composed of two-dimensional indicators we call “burden to capacity” ratios, that reveal and quantify the local value of resources embodied in wastewater and treatment byproducts, and the tradeoffs between designing systems for disposal versus reuse. We apply the sustainability assessment framework to an existing treatment plant in Chengdu, China and discuss the results.     

Incorporation of recycling flows into economy-wide material flow accounting and analysis: A case study for the Czech Republic

Economy-wide material flow accounting and analysis (EW-MFA) is considered a convenient tool for monitoring the vast range of issues related to the consumption of materials. As an increase in recycling is considered a crucial way of decreasing environmental pressures from this consumption, it makes sense to develop an indicator based on EW-MFA which would incorporate recycling flows. A prominent example of such an indicator is the cyclical use rate, which was developed by the Japanese Fundamental Plan for Establishing a Sound Material-Cycle Society.We calculated this indicator for the Czech Republic for 2002–2011 and proved that it can also be calculated for countries other than Japan, even though we encountered some unclear methodological issues related to specific features of the Czech waste management system. We further developed two modifications of the indicator taking into consideration that one purpose of the cyclical use rate is to express the ratio of consumption of secondary (recycled) materials and primary raw materials. We discussed these modifications and showed that overall cyclical use rate in the Czech Republic lags behind Japan both in terms of absolute value and trend development, although the indicator is higher for biomass in the Czech Republic. We also showed that this unfavorable evaluation is in contradiction with some classic waste indicators, such as treatment of waste by main treatment methods which is favorably evaluated in the Czech Republic. We concluded that it would be advisable to analyze measures for increasing recycling rates introduced by Japan and assess their possible transposition into the Czech Republic's institutional and legal framework for waste management.     

The Peconic River: Concerns associated with different risk evaluations for fish consumption

Risk evaluation and assessment have been used as tools to regulate and manage the risks to consumers of eating self-caught fish that have high levels of contaminants. Armed with these risk assessments, health agencies issue consumption advisories, and in some cases, close some waters to fishing. Recently, regulatory agencies have used contaminant levels in fish as a benchmark for remedial action on contaminated sites, using human health risk assessment as the justification. The US Environmental Protection Agency's new surface water criterion for mercury is based on mercury levels in fish tissue. When multiple regulatory agencies have jurisdiction over the same waters or remediation site there is the potential for differing risk evaluations. Using the Peconic River on Long Island, New York as a case study, the paper examines how and why county, state, and federal health risk evaluations for fish contaminated with mercury differed. While the same risk methodology was applied by all agencies, the assessments were conducted for different purposes, applied different consumption and fish biomass assumptions, and arrived at different conclusions. The risk evaluations invoked to design fish consumption advisories use mercury levels currently in fish, and are designed to prevent current exposure. However, the risk assessments that provide a basis for remediation consider many different pathways of exposure (not just ingestion), and deal with long-term exposure. The risk evaluations, and recommendations promulgated by those agencies, differ because they have different goals, use different assumptions, and often fail to communicate among agencies. It is suggested that it is valuable to have these different levels of risk evaluations to adequately address health issues. However, there are policy implications, which include making the distinctions between the types of risk assessments, their methods and assumptions, and the rationale for these assumptions. Further, assessors and managers should involve all interested stakeholders (including regulators and state health officials) in discussions about the use of risk, the assumptions of risk assessment, and the goals of those evaluations. The difficulties in the case of the Peconic were not due to differences in the original data, but rather in the goals and type of risk assessments performed. If all deliberations had been transparent during all phases of the decision-making and management process, the conflicts within the minds of the public, regulators and other agencies might have been avoided. This case study suggests that more reliability, circumspection and transparency should be built into the process where multiple agencies and multiple objectives are involved.     

Sustainability and materiality: The bioregional and cultural challenges to evaluation

The current debate on indicators for sustainability and life-cycle assessment of materials relies heavily on universalised systems theory, first developed by Bertalanffy in the 1950s. Various ecolabelling and environmental auditing schemes have attempted to account for all the variables required to measure the sustainability of a given product or material in relation to its resource use. The aim has always been to try and harmonise standards used to facilitate trade regardless of location and using a standard neo-classical economic framework. This paper questions the hegemonic position that synchronic systems analysis currently enjoys by proposing an alternative approach that recognises evolving and relative standards based on localised cultural and economic valuation. This alternative approach is underpinned by the concept of bioregionalism which combines physical, economic and cultural mapping of local resources using local parameters and evaluation methods. Recent bioregional research into local information on environmentally benign materials in Aberdeenshire, Scotland is used to illustrate one way of bringing a meaningful regional framework back into the debate on indicators of sustainability in relation to materiality.     

Risk assessment methodologies for biotechnology impact assessment

Summary By combining hazard assessment of effects of a potential biotechnology product with exposure assessments based on study of the genetically engineered organism's fate, conclusions may be reached about the risk involved in release of the product to the environment. In order to make this risk assessment, criteria (including regulatory endpoints) must be established and then developed further against a data base from well-accepted tests. Other aspects requiring research and development include test evaluation, quality assurance, statistical procedures, and methods of identifying and monitoring not only the nominal organism(s) in the products, but also any contaminating material or organisms to which the genetically engineered components may be transferred in the environment.Application of microcosm technology to testing of genetically engineered organisms is expected to be important, since these systems may be used safely to understand fate and effects prior to (or in place of) testing the product in the environment. Limitations in the use of microcosms may be offset by the cost-effectiveness and incisiveness of results, as has been shown for other pollutants.Risk management for biotechnology products currently lacks an adequate background, but components of the process exist or can be developed. New resources, in terms of personnel, training, facilities, and funding, will be needed in order to apply the risk assessment paradigm used for toxic chemicals and pesticides. We will need to know:     

Assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change in the Nordic countries – an interactive geovisualization approach

Nordic agriculture must adapt to climate change to reduce vulnerability and exploit potential opportunities. Integrated assessments can identify and quantify vulnerability in order to recognize these adaptation needs. This study presents a geographic visualization approach to support the interactive assessment of agricultural vulnerability to climate change. We have identified requirements for increased transparency and reflexivity in vulnerability assessments, arguing that these can be met by geographic visualization. A conceptual framework to support the integration of geographic visualization for vulnerability assessments has been designed and applied for the development of AgroExplore, an interactive tool for assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change in Sweden. To open up the black box of composite vulnerability indices, AgroExplore enables the user to select, weight, and classify relevant indicators into sub-indices of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. This enables the exploration of underlying indicators and factors determining vulnerability in Nordic agriculture.     

Drivers of agricultural sustainability in developing countries: a review

Agricultural development has been an effective instrument for poverty alleviation and economic development in developing countries over the latter half of the twentieth century, and over 80 % of rural people globally still depend on agriculture for their living. However, issues such as water availability, land degradation and an increasing dependence on chemical fertilisers and pesticides continue to be on-going threats to sustainable agricultural development. These threats are being driven by the pressing need to ensure food security in the face of rapidly growing and urbanising populations. Developing countries will therefore continue to need improved methods for planning sustainable agricultural development. This paper presents a review of agricultural sustainability assessment in developing countries. The review highlights some of the key weaknesses that persist in sustainability assessment and the need to consider not only indicators of sustainability but also the drivers that influence indicator behaviour. We argue that without a good understanding of the drivers of sustainability and their systemic relationships to indicators, sustainability assessments run the risk of focusing on symptoms without addressing underlying causes of adverse indicator trends. Drivers of agricultural sustainability in developing countries encompass a range of demographic, natural, socio-economic, political, institutional and management factors. Understanding these and their relationships to sustainability indicators is needed in order to develop agricultural development policy that supports sustainability. The paper presents a conceptual framework for guiding systemic agricultural sustainability assessment and agricultural development planning in developing countries that includes both sustainability indicators and drives, and considers the broad relationships between them.     

Time‐Dependent Health Risk from Contaminated Groundwater Including Use of Reliability,Resilience, and Vulnerability as Measures

Traditionally, assessment of human health risk caused by contamination of a water supply focuses on the maximum risk to an individual. Here, we introduce a time‐dependent risk assessment method and adapt and explore the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (RRV) criteria from the surface‐water literature as possible tools for assessing this risk. Time‐dependent risk assessment, including RRV, is applied to two synthetic examples where water quality at a well varies over time. We calculate time‐dependent health risks for discrete periods of exposure to the contaminated water for a variable population. The RRV criteria provide information about time‐dependent risk: probability of an acceptable risk, probability of system recovery, maximum risk, and average exceedance of a prescribed risk threshold. The results demonstrate that episodic contamination events produce fundamentally different time‐dependent risks than long‐term events: these differences, such as generally lower risks for the episodic contamination, can be captured via plots of the risk and the RRV criteria. Furthermore, the evaluation of time‐dependent health risk and the RRV criteria demonstrates significant sensitivity to the shape of the contaminant breakthrough curve, length of exposure, and variability within the population. Overall, analysis of time‐dependent health risks provides substantial insight into the structure of risk, with RRV providing a reasonable framework for the evaluation of these risks.     

A Global Analysis of Protected Area Management Effectiveness

We compiled details of over 8000 assessments of protected area management effectiveness across the world and developed a method for analyzing results across diverse assessment methodologies and indicators. Data was compiled and analyzed for over 4000 of these sites. Management of these protected areas varied from weak to effective, with about 40% showing major deficiencies. About 14% of the surveyed areas showed significant deficiencies across many management effectiveness indicators and hence lacked basic requirements to operate effectively. Strongest management factors recorded on average related to establishment of protected areas (legal establishment, design, legislation and boundary marking) and to effectiveness of governance; while the weakest aspects of management included community benefit programs, resourcing (funding reliability and adequacy, staff numbers and facility and equipment maintenance) and management effectiveness evaluation. Estimations of management outcomes, including both environmental values conservation and impact on communities, were positive. We conclude that in spite of inadequate funding and management process, there are indications that protected areas are contributing to biodiversity conservation and community well-being.     

Space use optimisation and sustainability-environmental assessment of space use concepts

In this paper, as part of a diptych, we discuss the factor space as a means of improving the environmental performance of building projects. There are indicators for space use efficiency and several more or less broadly supported methods for assessment of environmental issues such as ecological quality, use of building materials and energy consumption. These are discussed in this paper. Assessment methods coupling space use to environmental indicators had not been available until now. Beforehand, plans with different spatial properties could therefore not be environmentally compared. We present a method for the implementation of space use in assessments concerning sustainability. This method was applied to the urban case study presented in our second paper in this journal. In this paper, we also present solutions for improved environmental performance through intensive and multiple use of space in the second, third and fourth dimension.     

两种常用高分子材料外观颜色评价方法的比较

产品外观颜色的评价一直是高分子材料及制品质量检验中的一个重要项目.目前,关于颜色测试的方法主要有1976年国际照明协会(CIE)推荐的CIE LAB色差公式法和纺织品色牢度试验评定变色用灰色样卡法,两种方法在纺织印染、涂料、高分子材料加工、化工等行业中均得到了广泛的应用,本文详细分析了两种方法的原理、应用和特点.     

Regulatory requirements and tools for environmental assessment of hazardous wastes: Understanding tribal and stakeholder concerns using Department of Energy sites

Many US governmental and Tribal Nation agencies, as well as state and local entities, deal with hazardous wastes within regulatory frameworks that require specific environmental assessments. In this paper we use Department of Energy (DOE) sites as examples to examine the relationship between regulatory requirements and environmental assessments for hazardous waste sites and give special attention to how assessment tools differ. We consider federal laws associated with environmental protection include the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA), the Comprehensive Environmental Response Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA), as well as regulations promulgated by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Tribal Nations and state agencies. These regulatory regimes require different types of environmental assessments and remedial investigations, dose assessments and contaminant pathways. The DOE case studies illustrate the following points: 1) there is often understandable confusion about what regulatory requirements apply to the site resources, and what environmental assessments are required by each, 2) the messages sent on site safety issued by different regulatory agencies are sometimes contradictory or confusing (e.g. Oak Ridge Reservation), 3) the regulatory frameworks being used to examine the same question can be different, leading to different conclusions (e.g. Brookhaven National Laboratory), 4) computer models used in support of groundwater models or risk assessments are not necessarily successful in convincing Native Americans and others that there is no possibility of risk from contaminants (e.g. Amchitka Island), 5) when given the opportunity to choose between relying on a screening risk assessments or waiting for a full site-specific analysis of contaminants in biota, the screening risk assessment option is rarely selected (e.g. Amchitka, Hanford Site), and finally, 6) there needs to be agreement on whether there has been adequate characterization to support the risk assessment (e.g. Hanford). The assessments need to be transparent and to accommodate different opinions about the relationship between characterizations and risk assessments. This paper illustrates how many of the problems at DOE sites, and potentially at other sites in the U.S. and elsewhere, derive from a lack of either understanding of, or consensus about, the regulatory process, including the timing and types of required characterizations and data in support of site characterizations and risk assessments.     

Reinsurer Opinions of Environmental Management Systems Concerning Insurance for Pollution

Despite an increasing interest in reinsurance and environmental manage ment systems (EMSs) concerning pollution, little research has been conducted on the subject. This paper presents the findings from a survey of reinsurers' views on this issue. Reinsurers give EMSs a cursory consideration in their pollution risk assessments because they inadequately appraise pollution liability, have no explicit requirements regarding risk management and there is little evidence to show that they are effective at reducing environmental risks. Reinsurers' underwriting assessments and post-loss investigations are poorly developed concerning public liability insurance. Reinsurance and EMSs are currently weak methods to prevent and control pollution risks.     

Assessment of physical economy through economy-wide material flow analysis in developing Uzbekistan

In this paper, we assess the physical dimensions of Uzbekistan's economy during 1992–2011 by using the economy-wide material flow analysis (EW-MFA) method, which is an internationally recognized tool for such assessments. There have been a number of studies using methodological standardization of EW-MFA, but to the best of our knowledge, it has never been used to assess the metabolism of Central Asian economies, especially, in this case, the Republic of Uzbekistan.Our analysis strives to empirically evaluate macroscopic economic activities by considering the accounting of material flows. The material flows data-set comprises of consistent data for domestic extraction, imports, and exports, as well as other derived MFA-based indicators.The derived indicators are internationally compared for further evaluation of national economic development performance in a given period. The indicators of direct material input (DMI) and total material requirements (TMR) showed a slight increase in 1992–2011 with an average annual increase of 2.79% and 2.34%. The trends of TMR, DMI, domestic material consumption (DMC) and material efficiency, which is indicated by GDP/DMI, displayed lower values than other industrialized countries referenced in the international comparison. Although national economic performance data showed particularly remarkable success, indicators measuring material inputs and DMC reveal an insignificant increase during the period of study. During the second decade of study period, relative decoupling has occurred which indicated that the economic indicator (GDP) grows faster than DMC and other macro indicators grow.     

Sugarcane bagasse—The future composite material: A literature review

The natural, bio-degradable features and chemical constituents of the sugarcane bagasse (SCB) have been attracting attention as a highly potential and versatile ingredient in composite materials. Eco-friendly and low cost considerations have set the momentum for material science researchers to identify green materials that give low pollutant indexes. Various components of SCB is shown to possess the ability of being applied as raw material for manufacturing of composite materials at multiple levels of properties and performances. Studies on the impacts, performances and applications of SCB in its original condition; transformed forms; treated with appropriate chemicals and/or processes; in combination with materials of distinct properties and manipulation of manufacturing methodologies have been duly considered. This paper attempts to summarize a review of current literature on the extensive studies that have been undertaken in an attempt to explore plausible applications and potentials of SCB for composite material.     

An analysis of variables influencing the material composition of automobiles

The use of materials is studied broadly, because of the environmental problems related to extraction, production, consumption and waste treatment. The use and substitution of materials in products is therefore a relevant issue for environmental policy making. Studies have been done to describe the material flow or to measure the impact of materials or products on the environment. However, these studies do not often consider economic, substitution and dynamic aspects of material flows. Other studies on material flows analyse the relationship between the use of materials and economic growth, but they do not consider substitution between materials. For environmental policy making economic, technological and environmental aspects of the use of materials need to be considered. Especially, substitution of materials is important. In various countries material and product policies are imposed on a variety of materials and products. For evaluation of these policies their environmental and economic effects need to be examined in detail. This study aims to analyse the economic and technological factors influencing the use of materials and the substitution between different materials dynamically. The goal is to obtain an insight in the effect that material levies may have on the use and substitution of materials. The statistical analysis is performed on a specific product-group because decisions on the use of materials are taken on a product-level. The case study is performed on automobiles. The results show that the material use is largely an autonomous development. The price of aluminium has a positive, significant effect on the use of that material. The price of plastics has a positive, but not significant effect on the use of plastics. Reasons may be that the costs of a raw material are small relative to the processing costs, and that the production process can only be changed slowly. Other factors, like competitiveness and consumers' tastes, may be more important for substitution. This implies that levies or subsidies on certain materials is not a promising policy to change the use of materials. Besides time, there are two other factors that have a positive and significant relationship with the use of aluminium and plastics: the fuel efficiency, which is the distance driven divided by the energy used; and, the road tax, which depends on the weight of a car. However, these effects are caused by their positive relationship with time. The main conclusion of the case study is that imposing a levy on materials may not have the desired or expected effect of reduction in material use.     

Minerals policy in Europe: Some recent developments

The importance of a secured supply of raw materials for the European economy is evident. However, securing the supply of raw materials based on an appropriate EU minerals policy has been scarcely treated by the decision-makers in the last decades. Solely the impact of price development of international commodity markets in the last years induces a re-thinking of this field. The EU Raw Materials Initiative, which was published by the European Commission in November 2008, establishes an EU raw materials strategy including a list of actions.