How to evaluate raw material supply risks—an overview

Some strategic raw materials do have an extremely unsecure supply situation. Several working groups around the world have made criticality assessments for metallic raw materials to analyze the driving impact factors for this instability. However, the influences on raw material availability are manifold and therefore criticality assessment methods are very heterogeneous. Here we give an overview about the differences and similarities of supply risk evaluation in 15 criticality assessment methods. We take the example of Indium, which has been rated in 60% of these criticality studies, and show which data base is used for supply risk evaluation. Our results show a lack of consensus about which indicators give reliable information for raw material supply risk and how these indicators should be aggregated. We anticipate our essay to be a starting point for more justified indicator selection and weighting in criticality assessments.     

The time dimension and lithium resource constraints for electric vehicles

The availability of lithium resources for a transition to electric vehicles is a vital topic for transport technology strategy. Recent debate seems to have concluded that there is ‘sufficient’ lithium available, but for the purposes of a technological transition, time matters. It is not simply the quantity of resource that is relevant—the flow rate into society may be a much more difficult constraint and transient events have disrupted heavily concentrated material supply chains in the past. Furthermore, critical assumptions such as the presence of recycling systems may not be justified without policy support. Complacency is therefore not an appropriate stance for a robust evaluation of material risks in the case of lithium.     

New mercantilism: A perspective on how politics is shaping world metal supply

The major countries consuming metals tended historically to be also the major countries producing them. It was in their interest to promote mine development to provide low cost raw materials. Over the past fifty years, the share of global production accounted for by consuming countries has declined and producers and consumers of metals have been slowly moving into separate camps having distinct and differing interests. As a consequence of this, governments of producing countries have become more focused on how to maximise the benefit of metal extraction to their economies rather than on how to supply cheap raw materials; a tendency which has found expression in resource nationalism. Governments of consuming countries have in response become increasingly concerned about the implications of this tendency to their economic development and some countries, most notably China, have adopted robust policies to secure their supplies. Through their actions to influence capital flows within the mining industry and to force metals trade into channels which better serve their national interests (a process characterised here as ‘new mercantilism’), metal producing and metal consuming countries are reshaping global supply.     

Addressing criticality for rare earth elements in petroleum refining: The key supply factors approach

The group of elements known as the rare earth elements (REEs) is comprised of the 15 lanthanides. REEs are used in a number of technologies including catalysts for automobiles and petroleum refining, magnets for wind turbines and defense technologies, and phosphors in lighting and computer and TV screens. REEs are actually quite abundant in the earth′s crust. The elements are deemed “rare” because they are found in low concentrations and are difficult to extract economically. China holds 48% of the global REE reserves, and until 2012, production of REEs was almost exclusive to China. Over the past decade, China has been steadily decreasing its REE export quotas, reducing the supply of REEs available to the rest of the world. REEs are considered critical materials according to the National Science and Technology Council, which defines critical elements as those serving an essential function in the manufacture of a product, the absence of which would cause significant social consequence. Thus, it is extremely important for consumers of REEs to be aware of and understand the risks facing the supply REEs, as awareness is the first and most important step in developing strategies to mitigate risk. This report presents a mechanism for identifying the risks present in a supply–demand scenario and determining the criticality of an individual rare earth element under specific circumstances.     

Balancing durability and environmental impact in concrete combining low-grade recycled aggregates and mineral admixtures

This paper investigated the effect of various amounts of low-grade recycled aggregates in concrete containing mineral admixtures at three different water-binder ratios on mechanical and environmental performance. The balance between durability and environmental impact for a given strength level similar to normal-use concrete was also examined using analytic hierarchy process. Results showed that increasing the water-binder ratio and volume of recycled aggregates reduced compressive strength and increased air permeability and drying shrinkage relative to normal aggregates. However, compared to normal-use concrete similar or better performance could be achieved, which was attributed to improvement of low-grade recycled aggregate performance when combined with fly ash. Similarly, CO₂ emissions and volume of raw materials were lower than the normal-use concrete for all mixes. Concrete mixes with low air permeability and low CO₂ footprint had the best balance of durability and environmental impact, as decreasing raw material volume tended to more greatly reduce durability.     

Minerals policy in Europe: Some recent developments

The importance of a secured supply of raw materials for the European economy is evident. However, securing the supply of raw materials based on an appropriate EU minerals policy has been scarcely treated by the decision-makers in the last decades. Solely the impact of price development of international commodity markets in the last years induces a re-thinking of this field. The EU Raw Materials Initiative, which was published by the European Commission in November 2008, establishes an EU raw materials strategy including a list of actions.     

The raw material supply of the European Community : The importance of secondary raw materials

The availability and security of raw materials supply have taken on a new political dimension within the last few years. These issues influence the economic and political rank of nations, affecting their independence, their standards of living and the competitive position of their industries. The importance of raw materials supply will continue to grow, for both the developed industrial and the developing countries. The European Community depends on external sources for 50–100% of most of its raw materials. Although the degree of dependence varies considerably from commodity to commodity, sources are not diversified enough to guarantee supply. Yet 1700–2000 million tons of waste are generated annually in the Community, containing substances of potential value—including metals, glass, rubber, textiles, oil, plastics—of which 70– 80% are tipped. This represents a loss of materials as far as they could be reused economically. This article argues that efforts should be made to recover and reuse the maximum possible of these resources to reduce the Community's dependence on, and improve its security of, raw materials supplies, and to lower the balance of payments burden.     

Economic cost of mineral supply disruptions: Effects on a small, open economy

The potential impact of short-run disruptions in the minerals market on Israel's small, developed open economy is examined, showing that Israel is potentially capable of a smoother adjustment to external market disturbances. First, the analysis evaluates critical situations within the framework of a normative ‘general equilibrium model’, tracing the impacts of short-run developments in the resources market, and, second, it focuses on specific minerals within a partial equilibrium framework, using economic supply - demand relationships to assess economic damages. The potential damage estimates indicate that significant research and development outlays in the areas of material and process substitution and the capability for a quick build-up of contingent inventories would be justified to prevent the damages which supply disruption might inflict on the economy.     

Effect of collection system on mineral content of biowaste

The EU is committed to encourage biological treatments of organic waste as an alternative to landfill and also to enhance organic matter recycling. When these wastes are composted, the composition of the initial raw materials is very important in order to obtain a good quality product. In this article, the mineral composition of the organic fraction obtained from source-sorted collection (SC) and the organic fraction mechanically separated (MS) from mass-collected municipal solid waste was evaluated. Also, the compositions of these 2 raw materials that are used in the current Spanish municipal solid waste biological treatment facilities were compared. The mineral elements analyzed were the total content of the heavy metals Zn, Cu, Ni, Cr, Pb and Cd, and the plant nutrients P, K, Na, Ca, Mg, Fe and Mn. The results obtained were expressed on dry matter basis and on mineral matter basis. Important differences were detected between SC and MS samples, on both dry and mineral matter basis. In general, nutrient contents are higher in SC than in MS, and heavy metal contents are significantly lower in SC. Our results also support the idea that the heavy metal migration from the non-compostable materials to the decomposable matrix takes place from the beginning of the process while both types of materials are in contact.     

Modeling methods for managing raw material compositional uncertainty in alloy production

Operational uncertainties create disincentives for use of recycled materials in metal alloy production. One that greatly influences remelter batch optimization is variation in the raw material composition, particularly for secondary materials. Currently, to accommodate compositional variation, firms commonly set production targets well inside the window of compositional specification required for performance reasons. Window narrowing, while effective, does not make use of statistical sampling data, leading to sub-optimal usage of recycled materials. This paper explores the use of a chance-constrained optimization method, which allows explicit consideration of statistical information on composition. The framework and a case study of cast and wrought production with available scrap materials are presented. Results show that it is possible to increase the use of recycled material without compromising the likelihood of batch errors, when using this method compared to conventional window narrowing. This benefit of the chance-constrained method grows with increase in compositional uncertainty and is driven by scrap portfolio diversification.     

Cement and concrete flow analysis in a rapidly expanding economy: Ireland as a case study

A national material flow model for concrete, the most popular construction material in Ireland, was developed based on the framework of material flow analysis. Using this model the Irish concrete cycle for the year 2007 was constructed by analysing the material life cycle of concrete which consists of the three phases of: production (including extraction of raw materials and manufacture of cement), usage (ready-mix and other products) and waste management (disposal or recovery). In this year, approximately 35 million metric tonnes of raw materials were consumed to produce 5 million metric tonnes of cement and 33 million metric tonnes of concrete. Concrete production was approximately 8 metric tonnes per capita. By comparison, the concrete waste produced in that year was minimal at only 0.3 million metric tonnes. Irish building stock is young and there was little demolition of structures in the year of study. However this build up of construction stock will have implications for the future waste flows when the majority of stock built in the last decade (43% of residential stock was constructed in the last 15 years) reaches its end of life.     

The necessity to elaborate minerals policies exemplified by Romania

Mineral resources represent an integral component within a country’s economy. Despite the fact that the need for raw materials undergoes continuous growth–especially in countries which experience industrial upswing–proper measures to secure the access to domestic mineral resources in the long term have only been applied marginally in a large number of states. This lack of future-oriented legal frameworks–referred to as ‘Minerals Policies’–might lead to a diversity of sectoral problems (eg. dependency on certain raw materials imports). Based on data analysis and subsequent demand forecasting comprehensive national Minerals Policies can be derived in order to anticipate emerging issues and to achieve optimum sustainable management of domestic geological resources. The necessity of such concepts is illustrated by the example of Romania focusing on non-energetic mineral resources.     

The current status of the US mining industry

The US economy annually needs over 4 billion tons of new mineral supplies. The value of domestically produced energy and processed materials of mineral origin exceeds $175 billion annually, but domestic production of both raw and processed minerals is not keeping pace with demand.     

A methodological assessment of raw materials in the UK

Many projects have attempted to model the consumption and recycling patterns of important raw materials, but without assessing the significance of that raw material to the UK. This article methodically assesses all the factors which influence the importance of each raw material, and ranks them in descending order of importance. Sensitivity analyses confirm that the resultant ranking is largely independent of factors used. Copper, oil, iron and steel, and aluminium, are the four most significant materials. This work provided the justification for a detailed examination of the copper industry and, in particular, the significance of recycling.     

CO-OPERATION BETWEEN CMEA-MEMBER COUNTRIES OVER MINERAL RESOURCES

The Council for Mutual Economic Assistance is providing a base for raising its members' reserves and production of fuels and mineral raw materials through co-operation. The authors outline the framework for this co-operation, highlight the special role of the resources of the U.S.S.R. and provide illustrations of the co-operative projects under implementation or planning.     

Fuzzy Logic Model for the performance benchmarking of sugar plants by considering best available techniques

This paper deals with the problem of performance benchmarking of traditional beet sugar plants, by considering Best Available Techniques (BAT) for beet sugar production, as determined by the Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (IPPC) Directive. A Fuzzy Logic Model, based on fuzzy set theory, was constructed for this purpose, in order to compare the performances of sugar plants within the sector's best standards, as expressed in the Reference Document on BAT.The effectiveness of the model was tested in the case study, in which three sugar plants were benchmarked against the BAT regarding the consumption of energy, water, raw materials and the production of wastes, wastewater, by-products and the main product. The model was recognized as helpful for the benchmarking needs of sugar plants. In addition, by integrating BAT Reference Document analysis into the model, it provides IPPC permitting authorities with an objective method and uniform BAT benchmarks to manage permitting process.     

An analysis of variables influencing the material composition of automobiles

The use of materials is studied broadly, because of the environmental problems related to extraction, production, consumption and waste treatment. The use and substitution of materials in products is therefore a relevant issue for environmental policy making. Studies have been done to describe the material flow or to measure the impact of materials or products on the environment. However, these studies do not often consider economic, substitution and dynamic aspects of material flows. Other studies on material flows analyse the relationship between the use of materials and economic growth, but they do not consider substitution between materials. For environmental policy making economic, technological and environmental aspects of the use of materials need to be considered. Especially, substitution of materials is important. In various countries material and product policies are imposed on a variety of materials and products. For evaluation of these policies their environmental and economic effects need to be examined in detail. This study aims to analyse the economic and technological factors influencing the use of materials and the substitution between different materials dynamically. The goal is to obtain an insight in the effect that material levies may have on the use and substitution of materials. The statistical analysis is performed on a specific product-group because decisions on the use of materials are taken on a product-level. The case study is performed on automobiles. The results show that the material use is largely an autonomous development. The price of aluminium has a positive, significant effect on the use of that material. The price of plastics has a positive, but not significant effect on the use of plastics. Reasons may be that the costs of a raw material are small relative to the processing costs, and that the production process can only be changed slowly. Other factors, like competitiveness and consumers' tastes, may be more important for substitution. This implies that levies or subsidies on certain materials is not a promising policy to change the use of materials. Besides time, there are two other factors that have a positive and significant relationship with the use of aluminium and plastics: the fuel efficiency, which is the distance driven divided by the energy used; and, the road tax, which depends on the weight of a car. However, these effects are caused by their positive relationship with time. The main conclusion of the case study is that imposing a levy on materials may not have the desired or expected effect of reduction in material use.     

Time‐Dependent Health Risk from Contaminated Groundwater Including Use of Reliability,Resilience, and Vulnerability as Measures

Traditionally, assessment of human health risk caused by contamination of a water supply focuses on the maximum risk to an individual. Here, we introduce a time‐dependent risk assessment method and adapt and explore the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (RRV) criteria from the surface‐water literature as possible tools for assessing this risk. Time‐dependent risk assessment, including RRV, is applied to two synthetic examples where water quality at a well varies over time. We calculate time‐dependent health risks for discrete periods of exposure to the contaminated water for a variable population. The RRV criteria provide information about time‐dependent risk: probability of an acceptable risk, probability of system recovery, maximum risk, and average exceedance of a prescribed risk threshold. The results demonstrate that episodic contamination events produce fundamentally different time‐dependent risks than long‐term events: these differences, such as generally lower risks for the episodic contamination, can be captured via plots of the risk and the RRV criteria. Furthermore, the evaluation of time‐dependent health risk and the RRV criteria demonstrates significant sensitivity to the shape of the contaminant breakthrough curve, length of exposure, and variability within the population. Overall, analysis of time‐dependent health risks provides substantial insight into the structure of risk, with RRV providing a reasonable framework for the evaluation of these risks.     

油田清洁生产审核重点的确定

油田开发是一项由地下勘探与钻井、地面油气集输及水处理等多种工艺组成的复杂的系统工程,各工艺过程能源和资源的消耗,对环境的影响因素、范围和程度都不尽相同。文章按照清洁生产审核重点确定应遵循的原则,体现具有针对性、可为审核提供定量准确基础数据的特点,从原料(采出液等)、辅助材料和产品(外输原油等)的数量、主要生产设备运行情况和工艺流程、能源和资源消耗量、各类污染物的排放量等方面,探讨了油田在清洁生产审核过程中确定审核重点的方法。     

An analysis of future platinum resources,emissions and waste streams using a system dynamic model of its intentional and non-intentional flows and stocks

Platinum is increasingly used intentionally and non-intentionally in several applications. This has raised the concern about its future resources, emissions and losses during its life cycle. On the one hand, increasing platinum emissions might affect human health. On the other hand, the accumulated platinum in mineral waste, soil, landfill sites and construction materials as a result of the emissions, losses and the utilization of secondary materials can be seen as potential resources for platinum. This paper is aimed at (1) analyzing the long term impacts of the use of platinum intentionally and non-intentionally on its future demand and supply, release to the environment and accumulation in mineral waste, soil, landfill sites and construction materials and (2) quantifying the amount of platinum in secondary materials that would be available for platinum future supply. The analysis is carried out on a global level using a system dynamic model of platinum intentional and non-intentional flows and stocks. The analysis is based on four scenarios for the introduction of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). The results show that platinum demand is increasing overtime in all scenarios at different rates and its identified resources are expected to deplete before the end of the century with or without the introduction of FCVs. The release of platinum to the environment and the accumulation in soil are expected to decrease when conventional ICE vehicles is replaced by FCVs. The amount of platinum accumulated in mineral waste, soil, landfill sites and construction materials by the time platinum is depleted are more than double its identified resources and would be potential resources for platinum that are available in different parts of the world. The methodology presented in this paper can be used in the assessment of other technologies and other metals.