Lithium availability in the EU27 for battery-driven vehicles: The impact of recycling and substitution on the confrontation between supply and demand until2050

The adverse impacts of climate change are widely recognized as well as the importance of the mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO₂). Battery driven vehicles are expected to have a bright future, since GHG emissions can be reduced. Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries appear to be the most promising, due to their high energy density. Recently, the discussion concerning adequate lithium carbonate (Li₂CO₃) resources is resolved. The current challenge is the needed increase in flow rate of Li₂CO₃ into society to foresee in forecasted demand. This research determines ten factors which influence the availability of Li-ion batteries for the EU27 in the coming decades. They are used in a system dynamics analysis. The results of this research show that undersupply can be expected in the EU27 until 2045 somewhere between 0.5 Mt and 2.8 Mt. Substitution of Li₂CO₃ in other end-use markets and recycling can relieve the strain on Li₂CO₃ supply to some extent. In 2050, 20% of the vehicle fleet in the EU27 can be battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The lack of resources in the EU27 and the geographical distribution of lithium in politically sensitive areas suggest that the shares of lithium available for the EU27 will be less than assumed in this research. The increase in flow rate shows to be the bottle-neck for a transition to (partly) battery driven vehicles in the EU27, at least when Li-ion batteries are used. Focusing on large-scale application of BEVs with Li-ion batteries in order to substantially mitigate CO₂ emissions in transport is a futile campaign.     

An analysis of variables influencing the material composition of automobiles

The use of materials is studied broadly, because of the environmental problems related to extraction, production, consumption and waste treatment. The use and substitution of materials in products is therefore a relevant issue for environmental policy making. Studies have been done to describe the material flow or to measure the impact of materials or products on the environment. However, these studies do not often consider economic, substitution and dynamic aspects of material flows. Other studies on material flows analyse the relationship between the use of materials and economic growth, but they do not consider substitution between materials. For environmental policy making economic, technological and environmental aspects of the use of materials need to be considered. Especially, substitution of materials is important. In various countries material and product policies are imposed on a variety of materials and products. For evaluation of these policies their environmental and economic effects need to be examined in detail. This study aims to analyse the economic and technological factors influencing the use of materials and the substitution between different materials dynamically. The goal is to obtain an insight in the effect that material levies may have on the use and substitution of materials. The statistical analysis is performed on a specific product-group because decisions on the use of materials are taken on a product-level. The case study is performed on automobiles. The results show that the material use is largely an autonomous development. The price of aluminium has a positive, significant effect on the use of that material. The price of plastics has a positive, but not significant effect on the use of plastics. Reasons may be that the costs of a raw material are small relative to the processing costs, and that the production process can only be changed slowly. Other factors, like competitiveness and consumers' tastes, may be more important for substitution. This implies that levies or subsidies on certain materials is not a promising policy to change the use of materials. Besides time, there are two other factors that have a positive and significant relationship with the use of aluminium and plastics: the fuel efficiency, which is the distance driven divided by the energy used; and, the road tax, which depends on the weight of a car. However, these effects are caused by their positive relationship with time. The main conclusion of the case study is that imposing a levy on materials may not have the desired or expected effect of reduction in material use.     

Using the cumulative availability curve to assess the threat of mineral depletion: The case of lithium

The cumulative availability curve shows the quantities of a mineral commodity that can be recovered under current conditions from existing resources at various prices. The future availability of a mineral commodity depends on the shape of its cumulative availability curve (determined by geologic considerations, such as the nature and incidence of the available mineral deposits), the speed at which society moves up the curve (determined by future demand and the extent to which this demand is satisfied by recycling), and shifts in the curve (determined by cost-reducing technological change and other factors). While the shape of the curve for any given mineral commodity may or may not be known, it is knowable since the geologic processes responsible for the curve's shape took place many years ago. In contrast, the factors governing how fast society moves up the curve and how the curve shifts over time are not only unknown but also unknowable.Using lithium as an example, this article shows that knowledge about the shape of the cumulative availability curve can by itself provide useful insights for some mineral commodities regarding the potential future threat of shortages due to depletion. Despite the inherent uncertainties surrounding the future growth in lithium demand as well as the uncertainties regarding the future cost-reducing effects of new production technologies, the shape of the lithium cumulative availability curve indicates that depletion is not likely to pose a serious problem over the rest of this century and well beyond.     

Decisions on recycling: Construction stakeholders’ decisions regarding recycled mineral construction materials

Construction and demolition (C&D) waste, being already the largest waste fraction in industrialized countries, is expected to increase in the future. C&D waste recycling has been considered to be a valuable option not only for minimizing C&D waste streams to landfills but also for mitigating primary mineral resource depletion. Even though the use of recycled mineral construction materials (RMCM) is regulated and successful application examples are available, construction stakeholders do not yet broadly apply them. Although various criteria hindering a transition towards a broader application of RMCM have been identified, it is yet unknown how these criteria differ among decisions, stakeholders and applications. We therefore analyze construction stakeholders’ behavior, and decision-making regarding RMCM for the construction material market in Switzerland. Stakeholders’ decision-making was quantified with the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) in a survey in combination with their behavior. The results demonstrate the importance of stakeholder interaction, i.e. most stakeholders decide which material to apply based on interaction with other stakeholders e.g., recommendations and specifications. However, the initial general specification by awarding authorities that construction should be sustainable has little relevance to the subsequent material decisions. On the contrary the role of the recommendation of engineers, have a high impact on the subsequent decisions by the other stakeholders. Results also confirm that RMCM are broadly accepted in civil engineering (CE), whereas in structural engineering (SE) RMCM are still a niche product. The good alignment of the outcome of decision modeling with observed behavior shows the usefulness of analyzing decision-making with AHP.     

Implications for the carrying capacity of lithium reserve in China

China is a major supplier of rechargeable lithium batteries for the world's consumer electronics (CE) and electric vehicles (EV). Consequently, China's domestic lithium resources are being rapidly depleted, and the development of the CE and EV industries will be vulnerable to the carrying capacity of China's lithium reserves. Here we find that lithium demand in China will increase significantly due to the continuing growth of demand for CE and the briskly emerging market for EV, resulting in a short carrying duration of lithium, even with full recycling of end-of-life lithium products. With these applications increasing at an annual rate of 7%, the carrying duration of lithium reserves will oblige the end-of-life products recycling with a 90% rate. To sustain the lithium industry, one approach would be to develop the collection system and recycling technology of lithium-containing waste for closed-loop lithium recycling, and other future endeavors should include developing the low-lithium battery and optimizing lithium industrial structure.     

A future perspective on lithium-ion battery waste flows from electric vehicles

As a proactive step towards understanding future waste management challenges, this paper presents a future oriented material flow analysis (MFA) used to estimate the volume of lithium-ion battery (LIB) wastes to be potentially generated in the United States due to electric vehicle (EV) deployment in the near and long term future. Because future adoption of LIB and EV technology is uncertain, a set of scenarios was developed to bound the parameters most influential to the MFA model and to forecast “low,” “baseline,” and “high” projections of future end-of-life battery outflows from years 2015 to 2040. These models were implemented using technology forecasts, technical literature, and bench-scale data characterizing battery material composition. Considering the range from the most conservative to most extreme estimates, a cumulative outflow between 0.33 million metric tons and 4 million metric tons of lithium-ion cells could be generated between 2015 and 2040. Of this waste stream, only 42% of the expected materials (by weight) is currently recycled in the U.S., including metals such as aluminum, cobalt, copper, nickel, and steel. Another 10% of the projected EV battery waste stream (by weight) includes two high value materials that are currently not recycled at a significant rate: lithium and manganese. The remaining fraction of this waste stream will include materials with low recycling potential, for which safe disposal routes must be identified. Results also indicate that because of the potential “lifespan mismatch” between battery packs and the vehicles in which they are used, batteries with high reuse potential may also be entering the waste stream. As such, a robust end-of-life battery management system must include an increase in reuse avenues, expanded recycling capacity, and ultimate disposal routes that minimize risk to human and environmental health.     

Towards a Sustainable Natural Resource Management of Tribal Communities: Findings from a Study of Swidden and Wetland Cultivation in Remote Hill Regions of Eastern India

/ Environmental degradation in many hill forest regions of Asia, inhabited by indigenous/tribal communities is growing at an unprecedented rate. The case of Orissa State in eastern India is no exception. The government is of the view that the local population is responsible for forest degradation as they practice swidden cultivation and forest gathering indiscriminately to sustain their livelihoods. Based on economic merit alone, the government has undertaken some policy initiatives. Such initiatives that are meant to stop swidden cultivation have not been successful. This study recommends an integrated framework for developing a sustainable natural resource management practice for tribal communities. The framework has taken into consideration both economic and noneconomic factors in evaluating various alternatives. Furthermore, it has been applied to two tribal communities in Orissa (Juang and Saora). Based on an economic analysis comparing returns from swidden as well as wetland cultivation, it is observed that where forest degradation is not serious, wetland cultivation does not have a significant economic merit vis-à-vis swidden cultivation. However, in view of the long-term sustainability issue within ecological limits, swidden cultivation may be phased out in favor of wetland cultivation with an appropriate transition period. During this transition, government must adopt suitable policy initiatives to provide tribals tenurial rights to land, help financially in creating settled lands through terracing, introduce certain improved agroforestry techniques and train tribal people in other income-generating activities. Furthermore, all such interventions made by the government should have a strong sociocultural component in order to attract the tribal people to give up swidden cultivation.     

Perceptions, attitudes and interest of Swedish architects towards the use of wood frames in multi-storey buildings

Use of wood frames from sustainable forestry instead of non-wood frames in multi-storey buildings can reduce primary energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in construction. However, construction actors might have different perceptions towards wood frames than towards steel and concrete frames. Such perceptions may influence the actors’ decision to adopt wood frames. In this study we use a web-based questionnaire to assess Swedish architects’ perceptions, attitudes and interest towards steel, concrete and wood frames in multi-storey buildings (n = 412). Results indicate that the responding architects find concrete the most suitable frame material in buildings of 3-8 storeys, mainly because of the performance of concrete with regards to the engineering aspects (e.g. stability and fire safety) that were considered important in the choice of frame material. Although wood is considered the least suitable frame material, the overall attitude towards, and interest in, using wood is positive and related to the perceived environmental benefits of wood. This may derive from an increased discussion of and information about the environmental impact of buildings. Wood may be perceived as new and innovative while not considered as adequately proven as steel and concrete with regards to engineering aspects.     

Assessing the Potential Impacts to Riparian Ecosystems Resulting from Hemlock Mortality in Great Smoky Mountains National Park

Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Adelges tsugae) is spreading across forests in eastern North America, causing mortality of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis [L.] Carr.) and Carolina hemlock (Tsuga caroliniana Engelm.). The loss of hemlock from riparian forests in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP) may result in significant physical, chemical, and biological alterations to stream environments. To assess the influence of riparian hemlock stands on stream conditions and estimate possible impacts from hemlock loss in GSMNP, we paired hardwood- and hemlock-dominated streams to examine differences in water temperature, nitrate concentrations, pH, discharge, and available photosynthetic light. We used a Geographic Information System (GIS) to identify stream pairs that were similar in topography, geology, land use, and disturbance history in order to isolate forest type as a variable. Differences between hemlock- and hardwood-dominated streams could not be explained by dominant forest type alone as forest type yields no consistent signal on measured conditions of headwater streams in GSMNP. The variability in the results indicate that other landscape variables, such as the influence of understory Rhododendron species, may exert more control on stream conditions than canopy composition. The results of this study suggest that the replacement of hemlock overstory with hardwood species will have minimal impact on long-term stream conditions, however disturbance during the transition is likely to have significant impacts. Management of riparian forests undergoing hemlock decline should, therefore, focus on facilitating a faster transition to hardwood-dominated stands to minimize long-term effects on water quality.     

Corporate social responsibility, partnerships, and institutional change: The case of mining companies in South Africa

Internationally and in South Africa, mining companies are increasingly referring to corporate social responsibility (CSR) and partnerships in terms of the business case, or the expectation that being responsible and collaborating with stakeholders is good for profits. Based on a case study of platinum and chrome mining in South Africa, this article argues that the business case is circumscribed by companies’ institutional context. In the past, mining companies’ dominant interpretation of CSR has been in terms of charitable donations and support to good causes. These efforts have not alleviated the contribution of mining companies to growing social problems around the mines, primarily because they have not impacted on core business practices and have not contributed to necessary cross‐sectoral collaboration. Recently, however, there has been an important transition involving the broadening of the interpretation of CSR and increasing commitment to these issues amongst corporate leadership. Though market‐based incentives have contributed to this, the key driver has been the State's legislated transformation programme premised on State sovereignty over mineral resources. Hence, while the interrelationship between companies and their institutional context has, in the past, brought about a vicious cycle of irresponsibility and minimal collaboration, this cycle may be reversed into a virtuous one, driven in particular by the State. The broader implication is that references to a business case for CSR and partnerships cannot be relied upon independently of continued efforts at shaping the public sector context of companies.     

STREAM RESTORATION IN THE VICINITY OF BRIDGES1

ABSTRACT: The number of stream restoration and enhancement projects being implemented is rapidly increasing. At road crossings, a transition must be created from the restored channel through the bridge or culvert opening. Given conflicting design objectives for a naturalized channel and a bridge opening, guidance is needed in the design of the transition. In this paper we describe the use of vanes, cross vanes, and w‐weirs, commonly used in stream restoration and enhancement projects, that may provide an adequate transition at bridges. Laboratory experiments were conducted on vanes and cross vanes to provide a transition for single span bridge abutments and on w‐weirs to provide a transition for double span bridges which have a pier in mid‐channel. The results of the experiments provided design criteria for transitions using each of the three structures. Prior field experience provided guidance on appropriate applications in terms of the stream and bridge characteristics.     

Foreign direct investment and institutional obstacles: The case of Russian forestry

This article examines why, in spite of vast forest resources, Russia has been unable to attract foreign investors into its forest industry. A survey of 32 influential Western European forest companies indicates that purely economic factors, such as labour or raw material costs, are not the main reasons these companies refrain from investing. Instead, the companies identify a number of institutional factors: ambiguous legal systems; difficulties in negotiating with local authorities; unfair tax enforcement; and general political instability as the main impediments to FDI in the sector. These factors have led many companies to abandon previously considered investments in Russia, and also to terminate existing business relationships with Russian partners. The survey results also indicate that, while many investors in forestry were attracted by the potential for a growing Russian market in the early days of the transition period, they have become more and more aware of the many institutional obstacles challenging growth in the sector. The article concludes, therefore, that FDI in the Russian forestry sector is likely to remain low until a fundamental change takes place in the legal and political systems.     

Options for Managing Hypoxic Blackwater in River Systems: Case Studies and Framework

Hypoxic blackwater events occur when large amounts of organic material are leached into a water body (e.g., during floodplain inundation) and rapid metabolism of this carbon depletes oxygen from the water column, often with catastrophic effects on the aquatic environment. River regulation may have increased the frequency and severity of hypoxic blackwater events in lowland river systems, necessitating management intervention to mitigate the impacts of these events on aquatic biota. We examine the effectiveness of a range of mitigation interventions that have been used during large-scale hypoxic blackwater events in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia and that may be applicable in other environments at risk from hypoxic blackwater. Strategies for hypoxia mitigation include: delivery of dilution flows; enhancement of physical re-aeration rates by increasing surface turbulence; and diversion of blackwater into shallow off-channel storages. We show that the impact of dilution water delivery is determined by relative volumes and water quality and can be predicted using simple models. At the dilution water inflow point, localized oxygenated plumes may also act as refuges. Physical re-aeration strategies generally result in only a small increase in dissolved oxygen but may be beneficial for local refuge protection. Dilution and natural re-aeration processes in large, shallow lake systems can be sufficient to compensate for hypoxic inflows and water processed in off-channel lakes may be able to be returned to the river channel as dilution flows. We provide a set of predictive models (as electronic supplementary material) for estimation of the re-aeration potential of intervention activities and a framework to guide the adaptive management of future hypoxic blackwater events.     

PVC-based composite material containing recycled non-metallic printed circuit board (PCB) powders

The study is directed to the use of non-metallic powders obtained from comminuted recycled paper-based printed circuit boards (PCBs) as an additive to polyvinyl chloride (PVC) substrate. The physical properties of the non-metallic PCB (NMPCB) powders were measured, and the morphological, mechanical and thermal properties of the NMPCB/PVC composite material were investigated. The results show that recycled NMPCB powders, when added below a threshold, tended to increase the tensile strength and bending strength of PVC. When 20 wt% NMPCB powders (relative to the substrate PVC) of an average diameter of 0.08 mm were added, the composite tensile strength and bending strength reached 22.6 MPa and 39.83 MPa, respectively, representing 107.2% and 123.1% improvement over pure PVC. The elongation at break of the composite material reached 151.94% of that of pure PVC, while the Vicat softening temperature of the composite material did not increase significantly compared to the pure PVC. The above results suggest that paper-based NMPCB powders, when used at appropriate amounts, can be effective for toughening PVC. Thus, this study suggests a new route for reusing paper-based NMPCB, which may have a significant beneficial environmental impact.     

Water and the potential for social instability: Livelihoods, migration and the building of society

In much of the Third World, access to secure water for irrigation, particularly groundwater, reduces vulnerability, stabilizes livelihoods,alleviates poverty and 'entitles' populations to education and other forms of capital accumulation. Water resource development can, as a result, be used as a key tool for addressing the social roots of instability. The reverse is also true — problems such as groundwater overdraft contribute to poverty and are often at the root of forced migration and the creation of underemployed and unstable displaced populations. Water is fundamental to regional as well as local security.
The benefits of water resource development and the risks associated with unsustainable use patterns are particularly critical in arid regions. Patterns of water use that are unsustainable can play a positive role in the transition of populations from nomadic or migratory to stable communities, where people have access to education and asset accumulation. The exit is, however, as important as the entry. In many regions, the majority of the population now need to make the transition from agriculture to non–agricultural livelihoods. Many people, particularly the wealthy, may already be doing this. Understanding and enabling transition represents one of the most important policy challenges for coming decades.
Using examples from India, Yemen, Saudi Arabia and other countries, this article documents some of the connections between water and security and clarifies the importance of effective solutions to water problems and to social transition in arid regions.     

Estimation of in-use steel stock for civil engineering and building using nighttime light images

To establish a sustainable society, it is necessary to understand the flows and stocks of materials. However, traditional material flow analysis requires large quantities of data relating to the consumption and trade of materials in the past and the lifetime distributions of end use. To overcome the problem that such data may not be available, we have proposed using nighttime light images to estimate the in-use stocks of materials in countries for which the data are unavailable. In the previous study, in-use steel stock for civil engineering and building in 2006 was estimated using nighttime light images. However, several aspects of the methodology must be improved, and time-series analyses using nighttime light images have not yet been performed. Therefore, in this study, we improved the estimation of in-use steel stock by using new geological information (i.e., LandScan population distribution data) and correcting the pixel area. We prepared radiance-calibrated nighttime light data for 2006 and 2010 and conducted time-series analyses of the in-use steel stock using the nighttime light data. The in-use steel stock for civil engineering and building in 2010 was found to amount to approximately 11.3 Gt, which was approximately 21% higher than that in 2006.     

Quantitative assessment of tidal wetlands using remote sensing

Effective management of tidal wetlands requires periodic data on the boundaries, extent, and condition of the wetlands. In many states, wetlands are defined wholly, or in combination with other criteria, by the presence of particular emergent halophytic plants. Many important characteristics of the wetlands ecosystem are related directly to the production of emergent plant material or may be inferred from knowledge of the distribution of emergent plant species. Remote-sensing techniques have been applied to mapping of the distribution of wetland vegetation but not to quantitative evaluation of the condition of that vegetation.Recent research in the tidal wetlands of Delaware and elsewhere has shown that spectral canopy reflectance properties can be quantitatively related to the emergent green biomass ofSpartina alterniflora (salt marsh cord grass) throughout the peak growing season (April through September, in Delaware). Periodic measurements of this parameter could be applied to calculations of net aerial primary productivity for large areas ofS. alterniflora marsh in which conventional harvest techniques may be prohibitively time consuming. The method is species specific and, therefore, requires accurate discrimination ofS. alterniflora from other vegetation types. Observed seasonal changes in species spectral signatures are shown to have potential for improving multispectral categorization of tidal wetland vegetation types.     

能源转型影响中国经济增长潜力的模拟研究——基于"弱可持续性"视角

能源需求的高增长和化石能源的高占比导致了日益严峻的环境退化问题.均衡状态下,用于环境治理的资本投入实质上是对储蓄的一种扣除,这会降低生产性资本总量的积累速度,导致经济增长潜力下滑.本文构建了一个包含能源转型与真实储蓄量的DSGE模型,结合最新相关文献和中国经济数据校准模型,模拟研究了能源转型对中国经济增长潜力的影响以及相关政策效应.结论表明:能源转型发挥出一种"刹车"效应,将逐渐减缓经济增长潜力的下滑趋势;能源转型的持续推进,有望在2030年左右逆转其趋势;能源转型相关政策会改变"刹车"期的时长和弱化经济潜力的下滑程度.政策启示方面,能源转型是扭转经济增长潜力下滑趋势的有效手段,政府可通过政策"组合拳"的方式来干预能源转型过程,将有助于缩短"刹车"期和相对增强经济增长潜力.     

从工业废液中回收镍钴合成锂离子电池正极材料LiNixCo1-xO2

探索了从废液中回收镍钻在空气气氛下合成锂离子电池正极材料LiNixCo1-xO2的方法和工艺。结果表明,合成材料的充放电性能都比较好,LiNo0.3Co0.7O2在600℃6h→750℃16h时制得的产物初始充电容量达到154．938mAh/g,接近用分析纯的镍钴原料合成的正极材料LiNi0.3Co0.7O2的首次充电容量（156．146mAh/g）。采用镍钴废液合成锂离子电池正极材料,化害为利,经济可行。     

航空运输条件对锂电池安全性能的影响

航空运输条件对锂电池运输过程中的安全性有着较大的影响。本文介绍了联合国专家委员会关于危险货物运输的建议书及其试验和标准手册中锂电池运输鉴定的相关规定，重点阐述TUN38.3试验测试对锂电池安全性能的要求，并对测试中需要注意的安全问题进行了探讨。