Swedish perspectives on the future of raw materials

The author describes a futures study which looked at the long term supply of raw materials and resources for Sweden. The study involves the construction of a number of possible scenarios of Swedish and world development and an examination of their implications for resource supply. The conclusion is that there are unlikely to be any physical limits to growth over the next 25 years or so but that there may well be political obstacles. In any event, ideas of development are largely conditioned by historical and social circumstances and new paradigms may well produce new models of development.     

The geography and political economy of metal supplies

The author examines the dependence of the UK on metal raw material supplies. A statistical analysis of sources of UK imports is undertaken, and comparisons made with other industrialized states. Political aims underlying the economic relationships of supply and implications for government policy are considered. The case of copper is used as an example, with emphasis on the roles of investment and political stability in supply.     

How to evaluate raw material supply risks—an overview

Some strategic raw materials do have an extremely unsecure supply situation. Several working groups around the world have made criticality assessments for metallic raw materials to analyze the driving impact factors for this instability. However, the influences on raw material availability are manifold and therefore criticality assessment methods are very heterogeneous. Here we give an overview about the differences and similarities of supply risk evaluation in 15 criticality assessment methods. We take the example of Indium, which has been rated in 60% of these criticality studies, and show which data base is used for supply risk evaluation. Our results show a lack of consensus about which indicators give reliable information for raw material supply risk and how these indicators should be aggregated. We anticipate our essay to be a starting point for more justified indicator selection and weighting in criticality assessments.     

Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials—a combined evaluation of past and future trends

This paper develops a method for identifying and assessing long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. The method is based on a combined evaluation of past and future supply and demand trends. By analysing raw material boom and bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying critical market situations. By applying the method, risks for supply shortage may be identified at an early stage. In addition, a numerical evaluation model has been developed for better comparison between various mineral raw materials. Compared to other assessment methods this method uses specific benchmarks for each raw material to better assess supply risks. The method is embedded within a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach.     

Minerals policy in Europe: Some recent developments

The importance of a secured supply of raw materials for the European economy is evident. However, securing the supply of raw materials based on an appropriate EU minerals policy has been scarcely treated by the decision-makers in the last decades. Solely the impact of price development of international commodity markets in the last years induces a re-thinking of this field. The EU Raw Materials Initiative, which was published by the European Commission in November 2008, establishes an EU raw materials strategy including a list of actions.     

Transitions of municipal solid waste management. Part I: Scenarios of Swiss waste glass-packaging disposal

All municipal solid waste (MSW) management systems—even “high quality systems” or those employing “best practices”—face multiple challenges, e.g., decreasing prices of secondary raw materials recovered by municipalities, increasing complexity of waste composition, technological lock-ins. Policy-making involves translating these challenges into goals that are generic in nature and implementing them on MSW fractions thanks to tailor-made policy tools, e.g., anticipated disposal fees. Anticipating the impacts of policies can provide valuable insights into the adequacy of policy tools with respect to economic, political, and social contexts of MSW. The goal of this paper is to construct consistent, future scenarios of Swiss waste glass-packaging disposal based on literature and stakeholder knowledge, including the allocation of waste to different disposal routes. These scenarios are future states to which the current system could transit to due to alternative policies in line with waste policy goals and varying societal constraints (e.g., commodity prices). Results of scenario construction show that policy has a limited effect on waste glass-packaging disposal because of economic constraints, preventing goals from consistently being achieved. For instance, increases in energy prices can impede a policy favoring recycling over downcycling to foam glass, an energy-saving product. The procedure applied to construct possible scenarios suits well the ambition of considering uncertain future developments affecting MSW management as it integrates qualitative and quantitative knowledge of various sources and disciplines.     

Rare earth elements as critical raw materials: Focus on international markets and future strategies

Supply of some critical raw materials by European industry is becoming more and more difficult. After the case of natural textile fibres, in particular cotton, and timber, over the last few years the problem of rare earths (REs) availability has also risen. The 97% of the global supply of rare earth metals (REMs) is produced by China, that has recently done copious cuts of its exports, apparently in order to protect its environment. This fact has greatly increased the REs prices, causing tension and uncertainty among the world hi-tech markets. Many of these materials, in fact, have very few effective substitutes and low recycling rates too. In addition, their natural reserves of rare earths are concentrated in a small number of countries (China, Brazil, US, Russia, Democratic Republic of Congo). REMs are a group of 17 elements particularly used in many new electronic and advanced components: such as fuel cells, mobile phones, displays, hi-capacity batteries, permanent magnets for wind power generation, green energy devices, etc. Many analysts foresee much more requests in the next decades.     

The anatomy of three commodity booms

Three major commodity booms since the second world war are identified and analyzed. In all three, demand shocks predominated as triggers to the commodity price rises. The first boom, in 1950–51, was caused by the massive inventory buildup in response to the Korean war. The second, in 1973–74, was accentuated by widespread harvest failures and by OPEC's market management, which tripled the price of oil. The third boom started in 2004 and has not yet run its course. This time, the explosive growth of China's and India's raw materials demand has played a key role. The first two booms collapsed as the world economy went into recession and excessive inventories were sold out. The third boom may prove more durable since the world economy continues to expand briskly and commodity inventories have remained small.     

World tropical wood trade : Economic overview

Tropical wood is attracting global attention in the light of dwindling sources of industrial raw material supplies, increasing concern for conservation and growing requirements for huge investments. This study examines the changing character of the world hardwood trade, and the factors that will affect future supply, demand and price. It also considers the likely implications of recent large-scale attempts to grow tropical species for pulp, developments in microtechnology and biotechnology on wood, and the proposed international commodity agreement for tropical timber. The study emphasizes the need for huge investments on a global scale in afforestation and research to fully realize the potential of the tropical biomass.     

A methodological assessment of raw materials in the UK

Many projects have attempted to model the consumption and recycling patterns of important raw materials, but without assessing the significance of that raw material to the UK. This article methodically assesses all the factors which influence the importance of each raw material, and ranks them in descending order of importance. Sensitivity analyses confirm that the resultant ranking is largely independent of factors used. Copper, oil, iron and steel, and aluminium, are the four most significant materials. This work provided the justification for a detailed examination of the copper industry and, in particular, the significance of recycling.     

Mineral reserves: Projected lifetimes and security of supply

This article analyses the lifetimes of reserves of three dozen important minerals. Despite the high rate of their extraction in the past 30 years, the recorded reserves of these non-renewable materials were higher in 1981 than in 1950 and they seem to meet foreseeable demand for a long time to come, as indicated by the estimated static lifetime for each of the minerals covered. The dynamic nature of ‘reserves’ is emphasized: further exploration and scientific and technological advance will add to the present proven reserves, and at a higher price further resources will be ‘upgraded’ into commercially exploitable reserves. Apparent long-term security can be disturbed by natural disasters, political events or other factors, especially in the case of minerals whose reserves and production are highly concentrated in one country. However, any such interruption in the continuity of supply is likely to be short-lived.     

The boom in mineral markets: How long might it last?

The commodity price boom that emerged in 2004 has proved far more persevering than its predecessors of 1950 and 1973. Some analysts have suggested that it may represent the start of a “supercycle” caused by the voracious raw materials demand from China and other emerging economies, with prices remaining high for 20-30 years. We offer an alternative explanation. For a variety of reasons, the establishment of new capacity in minerals and energy to match the accelerated demand trends is more time consuming than commonly assumed, and may take a decade or longer. As soon as the new capacity is in place, however, the boom will be punctuated. Prices may collapse much earlier in the event of a severe recession that cuts the growth in commodity demand.     

Stabilising secondary materials markets

This paper argues that ‘secondary materials’ — waste products — are now an integral part of the global commodities problem. It analyses the background to attempts being made in several advanced economies to intervene in secondary materials markets. The forms of intervention are exact analogues of those that have been tried, or are being considered, and centre on buffer-stock schemes which aim to stabilise prices. In turn, stabilised markets have been thought to be a prerequisite for increasing the long-run supply of secondary materials. The paper casts doubt on the usefulness of such schemes for a selected product — waste paper — and presents a simulation exercise for the existence of a buffer-stock scheme.     

US strategic minerals: Policy options

The USA is becoming increasingly dependent on key strategic metals (such as chrome, cobalt, manganese and platinum-group metals) from politically unstable regions of the world. This dependence is the result of an inconsistent and fragmented US non-fuel minerals policy. Neglect of the US minerals industry has led to a decline in US mineral production and processing capabilities. Options for a comprehensive US non-fuel minerals policy include increased domestic production; increased substitution and recycling; a domestic stockpiling programme; and diversification of, and ensured access to, foreign sources of supply. These four options are examined and recommendations are made for increased mineral surveys of public lands, a regulatory review, domestic production of strategic minerals, tax incentives, conservation, stockpiling, and a foreign policy that will ensure security of supply.     

Using growth curves to forecast long-term trends for processed raw materials

The methods of using growth curves in the economic field to forecast consumption and market developments have been based on the ‘black box’ principle in most of the published cases and have therefore failed to produce reliable results in the medium and long term. This paper introduces an engineering approach for forecasting long-term trends pertaining to the use of processed raw materials. The forecasting is performed by means of a newly developed growth model. To prove the usefulness and validity of the model presented, long-term trends have been calculated for various processed raw materials, such as nickel, platinum and steel.     

Supply responses in tropical forestry: A Malaysian case study

The rapid exhaustion of Malaysia's commercial primaeval forest base has raised questions regarding the management and economic responses in the sector. The article assesses the institutional and management structure of Malaysian forestry which, together with the social and political barriers at work, prevent an orderly programme of harvesting and reforestation. The supply is then set out in terms of an econometric model, formulated both in static and dynamic terms to measure, among other things, the responses of output to price changes. The model, which is the first of its kind to be tested for the Malaysian forestry sector, is applied on three wood-based commodities — sawlogs, sawnwood and plywood. To learn of possible regional variations, the model is also applied to data of the country's three principal components — Peninsular Malaysia, Sarawak and Sabah. The results indicate that short-run price elasticities of supply are low, and in some cases, even contrary to expectations based on economic theory. Allowing for data inconsistencies, the slow responses of output to changes in price may be attributed to the method of wood disposal, its timing as well as the social and political barriers to entry at work in the sector.     

Forecast of the demand and supply plan of China’s uranium resources till 2030

This paper’s purpose is to predict China’s uranium resources demand from 2016 to 2030 based on experimental modeling. In addition, we discuss the future supply structure of China’s uranium resources by analyzing the domestic and foreign supply capacity of China’s uranium resources. According the forecast results, Chinese uranium resource demand will reach 21385 tU in 2030 under a medium scenario. Due to the poor endowment of uranium resources, China’s domestic uranium production will increase slowly. It can be calculated that the total demand of uranium resources in China during 2016–2030 will be 216581 tU, the cumulative production of domestic production will be 37900 tU, the overseas production will be 41950 tU, and the international market purchases will be 130574 tU. Hence, the cumulative degree of dependence on foreign resources is approximately 80%. China’s foreign dependence on uranium will be greater than for oil, and the situation will become extremely serious. Therefore, we put forward several suggestions to ensure the supply of China’s uranium resources: (1) strengthening mineral exploration and increasing domestic production, (2) actively operating the “going out” strategy, (3) enhancing the enterprise competition ability, and (4) establishing uranium resource reserves. By these means, China could efficiently guarantee the domestic uranium resource security and respond to the competition of India’s uranium resources demand increased.     

Oil spills on other commodities

This paper examines the effect of crude oil prices on the prices of 35 internationally traded primary commodities for the 1960–2005 period. It finds that the pass-through of crude oil price changes to the overall non-energy commodity index is 0.16. At a more disaggregated level, the fertilizer index had the highest pass-through (0.33), followed by agriculture (0.17), and metals (0.11). The prices of precious metals also exhibited a strong response to crude oil price. In terms of individual commodities, the estimates of the food group exhibited remarkable similarity while those of raw materials and metals gave a mixed picture. The implication is that if crude oil prices remain high for some time, as most analysts expect, then the recent commodity price boom is likely to last much longer than earlier booms, at least for food commodities. The other commodities, however, are likely to follow diverging paths. On the methodological side, the results show that price indices, while providing useful summary statistics, they need to be supplemented by individual commodity analysis.     

The recycling of rare earths from waste tricolor phosphors in fluorescent lamps: A review of processes and technologies

Rare earths have become the most important strategic resources, widely used as functional materials in industry and many other aspects of life due to its optical, electrical, and magnetic characteristics. As a consequence, a considerable number of wastes containing rare earths such as abandoned fluorescent lamps are generated and lost. Considering the scarcity in availability and supply of certain raw materials, waste tricolor phosphors are viewed as potential resources that can be mined in urban areas for their reutilization as rare earths. A number of studies in this area have been carried out all over the world.The purpose of this paper is to review the current status of recycling technologies of rare earths from waste tricolor phosphors in fluorescent lamps. The main characteristics of the tricolor phosphors were introduced, and also a detail review of the typical single recycling and reusing technologies with regard to waste tricolor phosphors was carried out in present paper. After that, several combined recycling processes and technologies were evaluated. Based on the review, the prospects of recycling technologies were suggested.     

New mercantilism: A perspective on how politics is shaping world metal supply

The major countries consuming metals tended historically to be also the major countries producing them. It was in their interest to promote mine development to provide low cost raw materials. Over the past fifty years, the share of global production accounted for by consuming countries has declined and producers and consumers of metals have been slowly moving into separate camps having distinct and differing interests. As a consequence of this, governments of producing countries have become more focused on how to maximise the benefit of metal extraction to their economies rather than on how to supply cheap raw materials; a tendency which has found expression in resource nationalism. Governments of consuming countries have in response become increasingly concerned about the implications of this tendency to their economic development and some countries, most notably China, have adopted robust policies to secure their supplies. Through their actions to influence capital flows within the mining industry and to force metals trade into channels which better serve their national interests (a process characterised here as ‘new mercantilism’), metal producing and metal consuming countries are reshaping global supply.