河流年径流量周期变化的分析：以长江上游主要河流为例

一、河流的基本情况金沙江、岷江、沱江、嘉陵江和乌江是长江上游的几条主要河流。其中金沙江的流域面积最大,达48余万km~2,流域内大部分面积为高原和山地;流域内的降水主要来自印度洋,年降水量约750mm,河水除大部分为降雨径流直接补给外,还有少部分冰雪融水补给。岷江是长江上游产水量最大的一级支     

嘉陵江流域水土保持的初步研究

一嘉陵江是长江上游主要支流之一,干流全长1120km,流域面积16万km~2(占长江流域面积的9％),流域内总人口约4000余万,其中四川省约3600万人。嘉陵江在四川的主要支流有白龙江、渠河、涪江。白龙江发源于川甘边境的岷山北麓,在广元昭化汇入干流,河道全长576km,流域面积3.18万km~2。涪江发源于四川省平武县境内的雪宝顶,全长700km,流域面积3.64万km~2,在合川县城右岸注入干流。渠江发源于米仓山南麓,全长307km,流域面积3.92万km~2,在合川县城左岸注入干流。     

浙江省金衢地区的土地生产潜力

金衢地区位于浙江省中西部,包括2市13个县(市),土地总面积19770.18km~2,占全省总面积的19.4%,地势四周高,形成盆地地形,金衢盆地贯穿2市中部,成为2市农业精华所在。本区自然条件复杂,土地类型多样,山地、丘陵、岗地、平原兼有,是我省农林牧副渔综合发展的农区。此外,金衢地区待开发土地资源丰富,开发潜力大。据初步调查,     

湖泊功能调查及其水源综合评价方法的探讨

我国现有大小湖泊2.488万个,面积共达8.34万km~2,约占国土面积的0.8％;其中面积在1km~2以上的湖泊有2848个,占湖泊总面积的96.7％,分布在五大湖区内(东北湖区、蒙新湖区、青藏湖区、东部湖区和云贵湖区)。在湖泊总面积中,淡水湖泊面积3.6万km~2,主要分布在青藏高原、东部平原及云贵高原三大湖区内,其蓄水量高达1970亿m~3,占湖泊淡水总蓄积量的90.4％。一般讲,湖泊具有多种功能,孕育着丰富的水利资源、矿产资源和生物资源,是一种不     

四川盆地降水背景点及其降水化学组份的研究

本文对四川自然保护区降水化学组份的研究,作为四川盆地的酸雨背景值,并与国内其它降水背景值进行比较。研究结果表明四川降水背景值pH>5.6,pH值变化相对比较稳定,降水化学组份浓度较低,也说明盆地外来源的污染物对盆地内的贡献是不明显的。     

推行清洁生产 构建和谐曙光

<正>辽河油田曙光采油厂于辽宁省盘锦市辽河下游绕阳河畔,双台河自然保护区的入海口,大部分井站分布在亚洲第一大苇塘——东郭苇场和羊圈苇场的茫茫苇海之中,辖区面积200km~2。累计探明含油面积185.79km~2,探明地质储量41972万t;动用含油面积141.38km~2,动用地质储量36409.53万t;全油区     

改善农业生态经济环境 综合治理水土流失

遂宁地处四川盆地中部、琼江流域上游,幅员面积1873.31km~2。由于乱砍滥伐,盲目开垦,宕性松软(遂宁组为主),易风化、剥蚀,抗蚀力弱,因此水土流失十分严重。全市中区水土流失面积为1330.8km~2,占幅员的71.0％;年平均侵蚀模数8728.4t/km~2t;年泥沙流失总量1161.6万t,农业生态经济环境严重恶化。 1981年,四川省把遂宁市中区列为琼江流域重点治理区,7年多来(截止1987年底),他们巳完成初步治理水土流失面积294km~2,占开展治理面积358km~2的82.1％。生物措施规划营造水土保持林草7.50万亩,完成7.21万亩,占96.13％。工程措施规划工程总土石方量1000.0m~3,完成1078.8万m~3,新扩建沿山渠、排洪     

生态脆弱区生物多样性保护安全格局研究——以吉林省大安市为例

以位于吉林省西部典型生态脆弱区的大安市为研究区域,运用MCR模型构建最小累积阻力面,并提取生态廊道和节点,从而分析和判别吉林省大安市的生物多样性保护空间安全格局。结果表明:①研究区范围内共提取生态廊道56条,总长度为165. 77km,生态节点53个。从空间分布上看,研究区北部生态廊道和节点数量相对较少,南部分布集中。②不同安全水平区具有一定的空间差异性,低安全水平区为2255. 59km~2,占研究区总面积的46. 23%;较低安全水平区为1287. 35km~2,占研究区总面积的26. 39%;中等安全水平区和高等安全水平区分别为959. 15km~2和376. 82km~2,这两类区域分别占研究区总面积的19. 66%和7. 72%。③合理安排人类生产活动,优化区域生态廊道网络连接,对维护区域生态安全、缓解生态环境压力具有重要的作用。     

四川盆边山地发展日本落叶松初报

四川盆边山地系指盆地边缘的中山地带,即海拔1000m以上,相对高度大于500m的米仓山、大巴山、巫山、七曜山、龙门山、大相岭、小相岭、大小凉山和邛崃山东坡;幅员面积约6.3万km~2。四川盆地处于中亚热带,由于秦岭对北方冷空气的阻挡,盆边内冬不严寒,加之主要受东南季风的影响,盆边山地气候温凉湿润(相对湿度大于80％),日照时数少(不足1000小时/年),土壤有山地黄壤、黄棕壤,植被类型多样,森林垂直分带明显,宜林荒山面积大(约208万公顷,占全省40％)。其下段     

陕西省野生动物资源现状及发展趋势

一、陕西省自然概况陕西省位于我国中部偏北。东经105°29′～110°15′,北纬31°42′～39°35′,南北长约870km,东西宽200～500km,面积20.6万km~2,占全国土地面积的2.1%。秦巴山区、关中盆地、黄土高原的土地面积分别占全省面积的36%、19%、45%;海拔高度分别为1000～3000m、300～800m、900～     

DETERMINING RAINS OF HYDROLOGIC CONSEQUENCE IN CHICAGO FOR FORECASTING APPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Accurate forecasting of heavy rainstorms that affect the Chicago Metropolitan area and lead to the undesirable release of storm runoff into Lake Michigan is a major objective. These releases (overflows) were found to be produced by storm events yielding 2 inches or more in a few hours, although only 24 percent of such ≥ 2-inch storms in the area during 1948-1981 produced overflows. Failure to forecast properly or to be able to react to these 2-inch overflow producing events has occurred most often in the spring and fall, although relatively often in June and July in recent years. These overflows have exhibited an inexplicable trebling during 1972-1981 without an increase in ≥ 2-inch storm events. This type of troublesome storm can be reliably predicted, using a recently developed radar man forecast system for the Chicago area.     

南充市近十年酸雨变化特征及降水化学组成研究

依据南充市2003~2012年城区降水环境监测统计资料,分析了酸雨变化特征及降水离子化学组成。研究表明:这十年,酸雨频率平均为50.4%,2007年降雨量为最高,呈波动递减趋势变化,降水年平均pH值为4.88,呈现"低—高—低"的变化特征,城区酸雨频率和降水pH值月均值变化呈现高低交替的波动趋势。城区降水中主要阳离子成分是Ca2+,主要阴离子成分是SO2-4和NO-3。(SO2-4/NO-3)比值逐年下降,平均比值为7.82,酸雨污染类型仍以硫酸型为主;降水(NH+4+Ca2+)/(SO2-4+NO-3)和Ca2+/NH+4比值呈波动性变化,2007年分别达到最高值为6.71和50.27,除2010年比值均较低小于1外,近年来均有增加趋势,表明碱性离子缓冲能力增强了,降水酸度降低,pH值增加,但2007年pH值较低,主要与降雨量有关。综合分析,降水酸度不仅是酸性离子和碱性离子中和作用,也受其他离子浓度和降雨量、风向等气候条件、距离传输以及地形等影响。     

长沙市灰霾天气与气象因子相关性研究

根据长沙市2013年PM2.5的逐日质量平均浓度、气象地面和高空观测数据,采用SPSS方法,分析了长沙市灰霾天气发生与气象因子的关系。结果表明:长沙市区的灰霾日以西北风向为主,PM2.5浓度与风速、降水呈显著负相关,与相对湿度、大气压、平均气温相关不明显。风速越小越不利于大气污染物的扩散,在没有降水的情况下,风速达到3.5m/s以上,空气质量才有好转;弱降水对污染物的浓度不会有明显的影响,降水量在5mm以下时,污染物的浓度不会有明显的下降,但强降水对空气有净化作用明显,在不同季节,不同时段,不同天气形势下降水的稀释作用不同;长沙秋冬季边界层稳定性几率高达80%以上,这种稳定层结构是长沙市区各种大气污染源不易扩散的重要因素之一。     

四川酸性物湿沉降模式及预测

酸沉降是一复杂的大气物理和化学过程，涉及诸多复杂影响因素。目前，我国酸雨湿沉降模式还仅限于模拟云下洗脱成酸过程，而对云中的成酸过程还未进行深入研究，这不仅在理论上不完善，而且更重要是在许多情况下与我省实际情况不符。本课题针对四川省特定的地理，气象特点和严重的大气污染情况，并借鉴国外研究成果，提出了考虑酸性沉降的云中和云下成酸过程和各种影响因素的综合酸雨湿沉降模式，并根据此模式来估算和预测四川省酸雨     

2017～2018年荆州城区空气质量分布及重污染天气特征分析

利用2017年1月至2018年12月荆州城区3个国家环境空气质量监测点的污染物监测数据和荆州国家气象站地面气象要素观测数据,采用统计学方法,对荆州城区空气质量分布及重污染过程天气特征进行了初步分析,结果表明:空气污染综合指数冬季最高,春秋季次之,夏季最低;PM2.5、PM10、 CO和NO2的浓度在上午和傍晚至上半夜其...     

Mid‐Range Streamflow Forecasts Based on Climate Modeling – Statistical Correction and Evaluation1

Abstract: Mid‐range streamflow predictions are extremely important for managing water resources. The ability to provide mid‐range (three to six months) streamflow forecasts enables considerable improvements in water resources system operations. The skill and economic value of such forecasts are of great interest. In this research, output from a general circulation model (GCM) is used to generate hydrologic input for mid‐range streamflow forecasts. Statistical procedures including: (1) transformation, (2) correction, (3) observation of ensemble average, (4) improvement of forecast, and (5) forecast skill test are conducted to minimize the error associated with different spatial resolution between the large‐scale GCM and the finer‐scale hydrologic model and to improve forecast skills. The accuracy of a streamflow forecast generated using a hydrologic model forced with GCM output for the basin was evaluated by forecast skill scores associated with the set of streamflow forecast values in a categorical forecast. Despite the generally low forecast skill score exhibited by the climate forecasting approach, precipitation forecast skill clearly improves when a conditional forecast is performed during the East Asia summer monsoon, June through August.     

NETWORK DESIGN FOR WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING IN THE WEST1

ABSTRACT: The objective is to develop techniques to evaluate how changes in basic data networks can improve accuracy of water supply forecasts for mountainous areas. The approach used was to first quantify how additional data would improve our knowledge of winter precipitation, and second to estimate how this knowledge translates, quantitatively, into improvement in forecast accuracy. A software system called DATANET was developed to analyze each specific gage network alternative. This system sets up a fine mesh of grid points over the basin. The long-term winter mean precipitation at each grid point is estimated using a simple atmospheric model of the orographic precipitation process. The mean runoff at each grid point is computed from the long-term mean precipitation estimate. The basic runoff model is calibrated to produce the observed long-term runoff. The error analysis is accomplished by comparing the error in forecasts based on the best possible estimate of precipitation using all available data with the error in the forecasts based on the best possible estimate of winter precipitation using only the gaged data. Different data network configurations of gage sites can be compared in terms of forecast errors.     

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: This research investigates the benefits of forecasting in water supply systems. Questions relating operational losses to forecast period and accuracy are addressed. Some simple available forecasting techniques are assessed for their accuracy and applicability. These issues are addressed through the use of a simulation model of the Cedar and South Fork Tolt Rivers, where the system is modeled as a single purpose reservoir supplying municipal and industrial water to the Seattle metropolitan area. The following conclusions were made for this system: (1) reservoir operation deteriorates markedly with the loss of forecast accuracy; (2) the optimal length of forecasting period is five months; (3) reservoir operation may be improved by as much as 88 percent if perfect predictive abilities are available; (4) the mean of the historic data is not recommended to predict future flows because Markov methods are always superior; and (5) lag-one autoregressive Markov schemes exhibit about a 9 percent improvement in operation over no forecasting.     

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NILE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is developing a river forecast system for the Nile River in Egypt. The river forecast system operates on scientific work stations using hydrometeorological models and software to predict inflows into the high Aswan Dam and forecast flow hydrographs at selected gaging locations above the dam The Nile Forecasting System (NFS) utilizes satellite imagery from the METEOSAT satellite as the input to the forecast system. Satellite imagery is used to estimate precipitation over the Blue Nile Basin using five different techniques. Observed precipitation data and climatic statistics are used to improve precipitation estimation. Precipitation data for grid locations are input to a distributed water balance model, a hill slope routing model, and a channel routing model. A customized Geographic Information System (GIS) was developed to show political boundaries, rivers, terrain elevation, and gaging network. The GIS was used to develop hydrologic parameters for the basin and is used for multiple display features.     

Illinois State Water Survey Bulletin 75: New Precipitation Frequency Study for Illinois

Storm frequency estimates and their temporal distributions are important in determining estimates of runoff or peak flow rates in many engineering and hydrological problems. Illinois State Water Survey Bulletin 70 has been serving as the design rainfall standard in Illinois since its publication in 1989. Although Bulletin 70 represented the best available data at the time of its publication, the standards needed to be reevaluated and updated after more than three decades and with the growing evidence of the nonstationary nature of heavy precipitation. The trends in heavy precipitation in Illinois prompted the creation of a new frequency study named Bulletin 75, providing precipitation frequencies for event durations ranging from 5 min to 10 days and for recurrence intervals ranging from 2 months to 500 years. The results are presented for the same 10 geographic sections in Illinois as in Bulletin 70 to maintain the continuity of hydrologic studies and compatibility with regulations. The primary goal of this paper is to outline some of the key methodological issues and challenges, to compare the results with the previous sources, and to highlight the effects of the changing precipitation standards on the development of amendments to existing ordinances. Lake County in Illinois, as one of the most affected urban areas with the highest change in heavy precipitation, was selected to illustrate issues related to the application of modified precipitation standards.