SIMULATING HYDROLOGIC AND WATER QUALITY IMPACTS IN AN URBANIZING WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: The Hydrologic Simulation Program‐Fortran (HSPF) was calibrated and used to assess the future effects of various land development scenarios on water quality in the Polecat Creek watershed in Caroline County, Virginia. Model parameters related to hydrology and water quality were calibrated and validated using observed stream flow and water quality data collected at the watershed outlet and the outlets of two sub water sheds. Using the county's Comprehensive Plan, land use scenarios were developed by taking into account the trends and spatial distributions of future development. The simulation results for the various land use scenarios indicate that runoff volume and peak rate increased as urban areas increased. Urbanization also increased sediment loads mainly due to increases in channel erosion. Constituent loads of total Kjeldal nitrogen, orthophosphorus, and total phosphorous for Polecat Creek watershed slightly decreased under future development scenarios. These reductions are due to increases in urban areas that typically contribute smaller quantities of nitrogen and phosphorous, as compared to agricultural areas. However, nitrate loads increased for the future land use scenarios, as compared to the existing land use. The increases in nitrate loads may result from increases in residential land and associated fertilizer use and concurrent decreases in forested land. The procedures used in this paper could assist local, state, and regional policy makers in developing land management strategies that minimize environmental impacts while allowing for future development.     

IMPACTS OF CALIFORNIA'S CLIMATIC REGIMES AND COASTAL LAND USE CHANGE ON STREAMFLOW CHARACTERISTICS1

ABSTRACT: To investigate the impacts of urbanization and climatic fluctuations on stream flow magnitude and variability in a Mediterranean climate, the HEC‐HMS rainfall/runoff model is used to simulate stream flow for a 14‐year period (October 1, 1988, to September 30, 2002) in the Atascadero Creek watershed located along the southern coast of California for 1929, 1998, and 2050 (estimated) land use conditions (8, 38 and 52 percent urban, respectively). The 14‐year period experienced a range of climatic conditions caused mainly by El Nino‐Southern Oscillation variations. A geographic information system is used to delineate the watershed and parameterize the model, which is calibrated using data from two stream flow and eight rainfall gauges. Urbanization is shown to increase peak discharges and runoff volume while decreasing stream flow variability. In all cases, the annual and 14‐year distributions of stream flow are shown to be highly skewed, with the annual maximum 24 hours of discharge accounting for 22 to 52 percent of the annual runoff and the maximum ten days of discharge from an average El Nino year producing 10 to 15 percent of the total 14‐year discharge. For the entire period of urbanization (1929 to 2050), the average increase in annual maximum discharges and runoff was 45 m³/s (300 percent) and 15 cm (350 percent), respectively. Additionally, the projected increase in urbanization from 1998 to 2050 is half the increase from 1929 to 1998; however, increases in runoff (22 m³/s and 7 cm) are similar for both scenarios because of the region's spatial development pattern.     

Coupling PCSWMM and WASP to Evaluate Green Stormwater Infrastructure Impacts to Storm Sediment Loads in an Urban Watershed

We coupled rainfall–runoff and instream water quality models to evaluate total suspended solids (TSS) in Wissahickon Creek, a mid‐sized urban stream near Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Using stormwater runoff and instream field data, we calibrated the model at a subdaily scale and focused on storm responses. We demonstrate that treating event mean concentrations as a calibration parameter rather than a fixed input can substantially improve model performance. Urban stormwater TSS concentrations vary widely in time and space and are difficult to represent simply. Suspended and deposited sediment pose independent stressors to stream biota and model results suggest that both currently impair stream health in Wissahickon Creek. Retrofitting existing detention basins to prioritize infiltration reduced instream TSS loads by 20%, suggesting that infiltration mitigates sediment more effectively than detention. Infiltrating stormwater from 30% of the watershed reduced instream TSS loads by 47% and cut the frequency of TSS exceeding 100 mg/L by half. Settled loads and the frequency of high TSS values were reduced by a smaller fraction than suspended loads and duration at high TSS values. A widely distributed network of infiltration‐focused projects is an effective stormwater management strategy to mitigate sediment stress. Coupling rainfall–runoff and water quality models is an important way to integrate watershed‐wide impacts and evaluate how management directly affects urban stream health.     

PHYSICAL DETERMINANTS OF ECONOMIC VALUE OF RIPARIAN BUFFERS IN AN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Economic values of riparian buffers in a watershed are evaluated by the changes in the net economic return for farming with and without riparian buffers when achieving the same water quality objectives. The simulated water quality impacts of alternative farming systems using SWAT and experimental data for riparian buffers are used in a mathematical optimization model to estimate net economic return for farming subject to a water quality objective. Physical characteristics such as stream length, channel slope, average land slope, cropland percentage and several soil attributes are identified in the watershed using ARC/INFO GIS. A regression model is then used to evaluate the impacts of these physical characteristics on the estimated economic values of buffers. The study is conducted in Goodwater Creek watershed, Missouri. The results show the estimated economic value of buffers is significantly affected by some soil properties, stream length, and cropland percentage in watershed and can be used to improve the effectiveness of riparian buffers at watershed and regional levels.     

HYDROLOGY OF A DRAINED FORESTED POCOSIN WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: In order to assess the effects. of silvicultural and drainage practices on water quality it is necessary to understand their impacts on hydrology. The hydrology of a 340 ha artificially drained forested watershed in eastern North Carolina was studied for a five-year period (1988–92). Effects of soils, beds and changes in vegetation on water table depth, evapotranspiration (ET) and drainage outflows were analyzed. Total annual outflows from the watershed varied from 29 percent of the rainfall during the driest year (1990) when mostly mature trees were present to as much as 53 percent during a year of normal rainfall (1992) after about a third of the trees were harvested. Annual ET from the watershed, calculated as the difference between annual rainfall and outflow, varied from 76 percent of the calculated potential ET for a dry year to as much as 99 percent for a wet year. Average estimated ET was 58 percent of rainfall for the five-year period. Flow rates per unit area were consistently higher from a smaller harvested block (Block B - 82 ha) of the watershed than from the watershed as a whole. This is likely due to time lags, as drainage water flows through the ditch-canal network in the watershed, and to timber harvesting of the smaller gaged block.     

CONSTRUCTING A PROBLEM SOLVING ENVIRONMENT TOOL FOR HYDROLOGIC ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the integration of a comprehensive hydrological model known as the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) into a problem solving environment (PSE) for watershed management. The original PSE concept was a structure providing web‐based access to a suite of models, including HSPF and other models of in‐stream hydrodynamics, biological impacts and economic effects, for the watershed‐wide assessment of alternative land use scenarios. The present paper describes only the HSPF integration into the PSE program. Example applications to the 148 square kilometer (57 square mile) Back Creek subwatershed in the upper Roanoke River system (1,479 square kilometers or 571 square miles) in southwest Virginia are used to illustrate important concepts and linkages between land development and hydrological change using hypothetical' what if'scenarios. The features of HSPF and its limitations in this context are discussed. The paper as such is a proof‐of‐concept paper and not a completion report. It is intended to describe the PSE tool building process rather than analysis of the many possible simulation outcomes. However, the dominance of raw imperviousness as a contributor to hydrograph response is apparent in all the PSE simulations described in this paper.     

Fecal Coliform Export From Four Coastal North Carolina Areas1

Abstract: Fecal coliform (FC) bacteria in coastal waters impair the use of these waters for shellfish harvesting and recreation. This study was designed to quantify and compare FC levels and export in two coastal watersheds with different land uses. Continuous monitoring of rainfall and discharge at three sites in the Jumping Run Creek watershed and one site in the Pettiford Creek watershed were conducted during a 4.5‐year period. Primary land use in the drainage area of one of the three Jumping Run Creek sites is low density industrial, while the other two are residential. Land use in the Pettiford Creek watershed is managed national forest. Nonstorm or base‐flow grab and flow‐proportional storm‐event samples were collected and analyzed for turbidity, conductivity, suspended sediment, nitrogen, phosphorus, and FC. Geometric mean FC levels for the Jumping Run Creek monitoring sites ranged from 593 to 2,096 mpn/100 ml, while the mean level at the Pettiford Creek site was 191 mpn/100 ml. Levels of most other parameters were greater in storm discharge from the Jumping Run Creek sites as compared to Pettiford Creek indicating that pollutant export from a watershed increases with development. Statistical analysis of the monitoring data suggested that FC levels in stormwater samples consistently increased with storm rainfall, but were not consistently correlated with any other parameter, including total suspended solids. Multivariate analysis indicated that the weekly FC export for each of the four sites was lowest during the December‐February quarter. Export was highest during the spring and summer at the Jumping Run Creek sites, while for the Pettiford Creek site, FC export was highest during September‐November. The cause of the seasonal variability was unknown but was thought to be associated with human activity in the watersheds.     

PREDICTING INFLUENCES OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT ON THERMAL HABITAT IN A WARM WATER STREAM1

ABSTRACT: Watershed and aquatic ecosystem management requires methods to predict and understand thermal impacts on stream habitat from urbanization. This study evaluates thermal effects of projected urbanization using a modeling framework and considers the biological implications to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) to assess changes in stream thermal habitat under altered stream‐ flow, shade, and channel width associated with low, medium, and high density urban developments in the Back Creek watershed (Roanoke County, Virginia). Flow alteration by the high density development scenario alone caused minimal heating of mean daily summer base flow (mean +0.1°C). However, when flow changes were modeled concurrently with reduced shade and increased channel width, mean daily temperature increased 1°C. Maximum daily temperatures exceeding the state standard (31°C) increased from 1.1 to 7.6 percent of the time using summer 2000 climatic conditions. Model results suggest that additional urban development will alter stream temperature, potentially limiting thermal habitat and shifting the fish community structure from intolerant to tolerant fish species in Back Creek. More research is needed on the sub‐lethal or chronic effects of increased stream temperature regimes on fish, particularly for those species already living in habitats near their upper limits.     

Comparing Green and Grey Infrastructure Using Life Cycle Cost and Environmental Impact: A Rain Garden Case Study in Cincinnati,OH

Green infrastructure (GI) is quickly gaining ground as a less costly, greener alternative to traditional methods of stormwater management. One popular form of GI is the use of rain gardens to capture and treat stormwater. We used life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare environmental impacts of residential rain gardens constructed in the Shepherd's Creek watershed of Cincinnati, Ohio to those from a typical detain and treat system. LCA is an internationally standardized framework for analyzing the potential environmental performance of a product or service by including all stages in its life cycle, including material extraction, manufacturing, use, and disposal. Complementary to the life cycle environmental impact assessment, the life cycle costing approach was adopted to compare the equivalent annual costs of each of these systems. These analyses were supplemented by modeling alternative scenarios to capture the variability in implementing a GI strategy. Our LCA models suggest rain garden costs and impacts are determined by labor requirement; the traditional alternative's impacts are determined largely by the efficiency of wastewater treatment, while costs are determined by the expense of tunnel construction. Gardens were found to be the favorable option, both financially (~42% cost reduction) and environmentally (62‐98% impact reduction). Wastewater utilities may find significant life cycle cost and environmental impact reductions in implementing a rain garden plan.     

Water Supply Planning Considering Uncertainties in Future Water Demand and Climate: A Case Study in an Illinois Watershed

Ensuring an adequate, reliable, clean, and affordable water supply for citizens and industries requires informed, long-range water supply planning, which is critically important for water security. A balance between water supply and demand must be considered for a long-term plan. However, water demand projections are often highly uncertain. Climate change could impact the hydrologic processes, and consequently, threaten water supply. Thus, understanding the uncertainties in future water demand and climate is critical for developing a sound water supply plan. In Illinois, regional water supply planning attempts to explore the impacts of future water demand and climate on water supply using scenario analyses and hydrologic modeling. This study is aimed at developing a water supply planning framework that considers both future water demand and climate change impacts. This framework is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate the watershed hydrology and conduct scenario analyses that consider the uncertainties in both future water demand and climate as well as their impacts on water supply. The framework was applied to water supply planning efforts in the Kankakee River watershed. The Kankakee River watershed model was calibrated and validated to observed streamflow records at four long-term United States Geological Survey streamflow gages. Because of the many model parameters involved, the calibration process was automated and was followed by a manual refinement, resulting in good model performance. Long-range water demand projections were prepared by the Illinois State Water Survey. Six future water demand scenarios were established based on a suite of assumptions. Climate scenarios were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection Phase 5 datasets. Three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, are used in the study. The scenario simulation results demonstrated that climate change appears to have a greater impact on water availability in the study area than water demand. The framework developed in this study can also be used to explore the impacts of uncertainties of water demand and climate on water supply and can be extended to other regions and watersheds.     

APPLICATION OF THE SNOWMELT RUNOFF MODEL USING MULTIPLE-PARAMETER LANDSCAPE ZONES ON THE TOWANDA CREEK BASIN,PENNSYLVANIA1

ABSTRACT: The Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) is designed to compute daily stream discharge using satellite snow cover data for a basin divided into elevation zones. For the Towanda Creek basin, a Pennsylvania watershed with relatively little relief, analysis of snow cover images revealed that both elevation and land use affected snow accumulation and melt on the landscape. The distribution of slope and aspect on the watershed was also considered; however, these landscape features were not well correlated with the available snow cover data. SRM streamflow predictions for 1990, 1993 and 1994 snowmelt seasons for the Towanda Creek basin using a combination of elevation and land use zones yielded more precise streamflow estimates than the use of standard elevation zones alone. The use of multiple-parameter zones worked best in non-rain-on-snow conditions such as in 1990 and 1994 seasons where melt was primarily driven by differences in solar radiation. For seasons with major rain-on-snow events such as 1993, only modest improvements were shown since melt was dominated by rainfall energy inputs, condensation and sensible heat convection. Availability of GIS coverages containing satellite snow cover data and other landscape attributes should permit similar reformulation of multiple-parameter watershed zones and improved SRM streamflow predictions on other basins.     

EFFECTS OF ADJACENT AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AND WATERSHED CHARACTERISTICS ON STREAM MACROINVERTEBRATE COMMUNITIES1

Benthic macroinvertebrate communities in streams adjacent to cornfields, streams where cows had unrestricted access, and reference locations without agriculture were compared to examine the effects of local land use and land use/land cover in the watershed. At each local site, macroinvertebrates and a variety of habitat parameters were measured upstream, adjacent, downstream, and farther downstream of the local land use. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to calculate drainage basin area, land use/land cover percentages in each basin, and the distance from sample sites to the stream source. Three‐way analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) tests with date, site type, and sampling location as main effects were used to explore differences in macroinvertebrate metrics using median substrate size, percent hay/pasture area, and stream depth as covariates. The covariates significantly improved model fit and showed that multiple contributing factors influence community composition. Local impacts were greatest at sites where cows had access, probably because of sedimentation and embeddedness in the substrate. Differences between the upstream and the adjacent and downstream locations were not as great as expected, perhaps because upstream recolonization was reduced by agricultural impacts or because of differences in the intensity or proximity of agriculture to riparian areas in the watershed. The results underscore the importance of both local and watershed factors in controlling stream community composition.     

Classification and spatial mapping of riparian habitat with applications toward management of streams impacted by nonpoint source pollution

Management of riparian habitats has been recognized for its importance in reducing instream effects of agricultural nonpoint source pollution. By serving as a buffer, well structured riparian habitats can reduce nonpoint source impacts by filtering surface runoff from field to stream. A system has been developed where key characteristics of riparian habitat, vegetation type, height, width, riparian and shoreline bank slope, and land use are classified as discrete categorical units. This classification system recognizes seven riparian vegetation types, which are determined by dominant plant type. Riparian and shoreline bank slope, in addition to riparian width and height, each consist of five categories. Classification by discrete units allows for ready digitizing of information for production of spatial maps using a geographic information system (GIS). The classification system was tested for field efficiency on Tom Beall Creek watershed, an agriculturally impacted third-order stream in the Clearwater River drainage, Nez Perce County, Idaho, USA. The classification system was simple to use during field applications and provided a good inventory of riparian habitat. After successful field tests, spatial maps were produced for each component using the Professional Map Analysis Package (pMAP), a GIS program. With pMAP, a map describing general riparian habitat condition was produced by combining the maps of components of riparian habitat, and the condition map was integrated with a map of soil erosion potential in order to determine areas along the stream that are susceptible to nonpoint source pollution inputs. Integration of spatial maps of riparian classification and watershed characteristics has great potential as a tool for aiding in making management decisions for mitigating off-site impacts of agricultural nonpoint source pollution.     

Model Based Nitrate TMDLs for Two Agricultural Watersheds of Southeastern Minnesota1

Abstract: In this study, a set of nitrogen reduction strategies were modeled to evaluate the feasibility of improving water quality to meet total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) in two agricultural watersheds. For this purpose, a spatial‐process model was calibrated and used to predict monthly nitrate losses (1994‐96) from Sand and Bevens Creek watersheds located in south‐central Minnesota. Statistical comparison of predicted and observed flow and nitrate losses gave r² coefficients of 0.75 and 0.70 for Sand Creek watershed and 0.72 and 0.67 for Bevens Creek watershed, respectively. Modeled alternative agricultural management scenarios included: six different N application rates over three application timings and three different percentages of crop land with subsurface drainage. Predicted annual nitrate losses were then compared with nitrate TMDLs assuming a 30% reduction in observed nitrate losses is required. Reductions of about 33 (8.6 to 5.8 kg/ha) and 35% (23 to 15 kg/ha) in existing annual nitrate losses are possible for Sand and Bevens Creek watersheds, respectively, by switching the timing of fertilizer application from fall to spring. Trends towards increases in tile‐drained crop land imply that attaining nitrate TMDLs in future may require other alternative management practices in addition to fertilizer management such as partial conversion of crop land to pasture.     

NEAR‐STREAM LANDUSE EFFECTS ON STREAMWATER NUTRIENT DISTRIBUTION IN AN URBANIZING WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: We investigated spatial and temporal relationships among surface and subsurface watershed attributes and stream nutrient concentrations in urbanizing Johnson Creek watershed in northern Oregon. We sampled stream water at eight urban and five nonurban locations from March 1998 through December 1999. We sampled eight wells distributed over the two primary aquifers in the watershed. Using a Geographic Information System (GIS), percentages of landuse attributes within a radius of 30, 91, and 152 m from each sample site were quantified. We analyzed relationships between (1) nutrient concentrations and percentage cover of different landuse attributes, and (2) nutrient concentrations and underlying hydrologic units. We did not find a significant relationship between ground water chemistry and stream water chemistry. We found elevated levels of phosphorus (P) concentrations correlated with urban landuse, while higher nitrogen (N) concentrations were correlated with nonurban (primarily agricultural) landuse. We concluded that elevated levels of N in nonurban areas of Johnson Creek watershed were associated with agricultural practices. We further concluded that urban development factors such as increases in storm drains, dry wells, and impermeable surfaces may be responsible for higher input of P to the stream in urbanizing areas of the Johnson Creek watershed.     

Physically Based,Hydrologic Model Results Based on Three Precipitation Products1

Abstract: The main objective of the study is to examine the accuracy of and differences among simulated streamflows driven by rainfall estimates from a network of 22 rain gauges spread over a 2,170 km² watershed, NEXRAD Stage III radar data, and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 satellite data. The Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA), a physically based, distributed parameter, grid‐structured, hydrologic model, was used to simulate the June‐2002 flooding event in the Upper Guadalupe River watershed in south central Texas. There were significant differences between the rainfall fields estimated by the three types of measurement technologies. These differences resulted in even larger differences in the simulated hydrologic response of the watershed. In general, simulations driven by radar rainfall yielded better results than those driven by satellite or rain‐gauge estimates. This study also presents an overview of effects of land cover changes on runoff and stream discharge. The results demonstrate that, for major rainfall events similar to the 2002 event, the effect of urbanization on the watershed in the past two decades would not have made any significant effect on the hydrologic response. The effect of urbanization on the hydrologic response increases as the size of the rainfall event decreases.     

Effects of flooding and drought on water quality in Gulf Coastal Plain streams in Georgia

Since 1994, water-quality constituents have been measured monthly in three adjacent Coastal Plain watersheds in southwestern Georgia. During 1994, rainfall was 650 mm above annual average and the highest flows on record were observed. From November 1998 through November 2000, 19 months had below average rainfall. Lowest flows on record were observed during the summer of 2000. The watersheds are human-dominated with row-crop agriculture and managed forestlands being the major land uses. However, one watershed (Chickasawhatchee Creek) had 10 to 13% less agriculture and greater wetland area, especially along the stream. Suspended particles, dissolved organic carbon, NH4-N, and soluble reactive phosphorus concentrations were greater during wet and flood periods compared with dry and drought periods for each stream. Regional hydrologic conditions had little effect on NO3-N or dissolved inorganic carbon. Chickasawhatchee Creek had significantly lower suspended sediment and NO3-N concentrations and greater organic and inorganic carbon concentrations, reflecting greater wetland area and stronger connection to a regional aquifer system. Even though substantial human land use occurred within all watersheds, water quality was generally good and can be attributed to low stream drainage density and relatively intact floodplain forests. Low drainage density minimizes surface run-off into streams. Floodplain forests reduce nonpoint-source pollutants through biological and physical absorption. In addition to preserving water quality, floodplain forests provide important ecological functions through the export of nutrients and organic carbon to streams. Extreme low flows may be disruptive to aquatic life due to both the lack of water and to the scarcity of biologically important materials originating from floodplain forests.     

Analyses of Urban Drainage Network Structure and its Impact on Hydrologic Response1

Meierdiercks, Katherine L., James A. Smith, Mary Lynn Baeck, and Andrew J. Miller, 2010. Analyses of Urban Drainage Network Structure and Its Impact on Hydrologic Response. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1-12. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00465.x Abstract: Urban flood studies have linked the severity of flooding to the percent imperviousness or land use classifications of a watershed, but relatively little attention has been given to the impact of urban drainage networks on hydrologic response. The drainage network, which can include storm pipes, surface channels, street gutters, and stormwater management ponds, is examined in the Dead Run watershed (14.3 km²). Comprehensive digital representations of the urban drainage network in Dead Run were developed and provide a key observational resource for analyses of urban drainage networks and their impact on hydrologic response. Analyses in this study focus on three headwater subbasins with drainage areas ranging from 1.3 to 1.9 km² and that exhibit striking contrasts in their patterns and history of development. It is shown that the drainage networks of the three subbasins, like natural river networks, exhibit characteristic structures and that these features play critical roles in determining urban hydrologic response. Hydrologic modeling analyses utilize the Environmental Protection Agency’s Stormwater Management Model (SWMM), which provides a flexible platform for examining the impacts of drainage network structure on hydrologic response. Results of SWMM modeling analyses suggest that drainage density and presence of stormwater ponds impact peak discharge more significantly in the Dead Run subbasins than the percent impervious or land use type of the subbasins.     

LARGE AREA HYDROLOGIC MODELING AND ASSESSMENT PART II: MODEL APPLICATION1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the application of a river basin scale hydrologic model (described in Part I) to Richland and Chambers Creeks watershed (RC watershed) in upper Trinity River basin in Texas. The inputs to the model were accumulated from hydro-graphic and geographic databases and maps using a raster-based GIS. Available weather data from 12 weather stations in and around the watershed and stream flow data from two USGS stream gauge station for the period 1965 to 1984 were used in the flow calibration and validation. Sediment calibration was carried out for the period 1988 through 1994 using the 1994 sediment survey data from the Richland-Chambers lake. Sediment validation was conducted on a subwatershed (Mill Creek watershed) situated on Chambers Creek of the RC watershed. The model was evaluated by well established statistical and visual methods and was found to explain at least 84 percent and 65 percent of the variability in the observed stream flow data for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. In addition, the model predicted the accumulated sediment load within 2 percent and 9 percent from the observed data for the RC watershed and Mill Creek watershed, respectively.