自动雪深观测仪的对比分析

为推进气象高质量发展，推动雪深观测自动化进程，建设气象探测强国，佳木斯市气象局于2021年～2022年冬季在佳木斯冰雪试验外场安装3台不同型号的雪深自动观测仪，进行雪深观测仪比对试验，通过对积雪期自动采集与人工观测的雪深数据对比分析，评估不同类型的自动雪深观测仪运行稳定性和数据精准性。试验结果表明3台自动雪深观测仪在积雪期运行稳定，故障率为0，观测数据完整，无缺失；在不同积雪阶段，3台自动雪深观测仪数据与人工观测数据相比，整体的准确性和稳定性为DSJ1型> DSS1型> DSS2型；气温和雪温在积雪稳定阶段与自动雪深观测仪误差相关性最强。综上所述，DSJ1型自动雪深观测仪运行最稳定，数据最准确，在今后对自动雪深观测仪的升级时应更加注重气温、雪温和风速等气象要素带来的误差，从而推动雪深观测自动化进程服务。     

2018年玉树隆宝滩湿地恢复型人工增雨作业效果分析

基于2018年青海省玉树州隆宝滩湿地恢复型人工增雨作业情况,利用双比分析统计检验和雷达物理检验方法,对两次增雨作业效果进行了分析,结果表明:(1)作业前雷达回波强度有减弱趋势,随着作业的进行,试验区内雷达回波又出现增强趋势。(2)利用双比分析方法对逐3h降水量的统计分析,2次增雨作业过程的平均作业效果为每3h增加降水量0.35mm,相对增加降水量22.8%。     

三江源地区空中云水资源人工增雨潜力及其对生态环境影响评估

2011年中国气象局人工影响天气中心提出了CWR-PEP增雨潜力评估方法,文章应用该评估方法对2017～2019年青海省三江源地区人工增雨潜力作了评估,得出:2017～2019年青海省三江源地区人工增雨(雪)共增加降水62.18～93.26亿m~3。其中,飞机增雨作业增加降水51.00～76.51亿m~3,地面增雨作业增加降水11.18～16.75亿m~3,增雨(雪)作业补充了三江源地区水资源短缺,使扎陵湖和鄂陵湖水体面积增加,牧草覆盖度提高,江河源径流量增加。该方法对空中水资源科学合理开发提供了依据,对今后人工增雨潜力评估工作具有一定意义。     

几种气象资料在人工增雨效果评估中的应用研究

为了在人工增雨作业后尽快地为地方政府和环保等有关部门提供作业效果评估报告,对本地新装激光雷达和雨滴谱实测资料等进行了应用分析。结果表明,激光雷达探测的云光学厚度实况资料与卫星反演资料差异不大,在作业指挥和较大范围增雨作业的效果评估中均可应用,高时间精度的雨滴谱资料用于人工增雨效果评估较为快捷、直观、方便。这两种新资料的应用可填补日常观测资料在缺测时的不足,其评估结果能及时为环保等部门治理污染提供参考。     

乌鲁木齐河流域融雪期积雪物理特性观测分析

融雪水作为干旱内陆河流主要补给来源,是干旱地区农业灌溉生存与发展的主要制约因素,积雪物理特性是研究融雪规律、融雪径流形成与侵蚀过程的基础。本研究日在天山北坡乌鲁木齐河流域下游试验区对林冠下与开阔地气象要素以及积雪物理特性(含水率、积雪密度、积雪深度、雪层温度等)进行观测,分析季节性积雪融雪期雪层物理特性垂直轮廓线和时间变化特征及其与气温的相互联系。研究得出:融雪期各雪层物理特性存在差异性,雪层平均含水率与气温指数相关且林冠下相关性更好。     

装备系统发射可靠性评估研究

构建装备发射可靠性框图和可靠性模型,建立自下而上的发射可靠性综合评估方法,明确数据折合、逐级向上数据综合、相容性检验以及CMSR综合评估等四个流程的具体方法,开展某装备发射可靠性数据的收集和可靠性评估,评估结果满足战标要求。     

环境模拟试验室人工降雪装置的研制

采用喷水雾的方式在空调器环境模拟试验室内实现人工降雪功能。对造雪方法、喷头选用、供水系统、供水/供气压力以及管道防冻等方面进行了研制和试验。试验结果表明人工降雪装置可实现稳定连续降雪,降雪洒落分布均匀、积雪蓬松类似自然雪,达到预期效果。     

一种基于工作流模型的系统运行评估方法

复杂信息系统各功能正常运行依赖于内部各数据处理节点之间的高效协作和数据交互。针对复杂信息系统运行情况评估的需求,提出了一种基于工作流模型的评估方法,能够依据系统运行过程中各节点之间的数据交互关系建立模型,通过该模型对系统的记录数据进行自动化处理,实现系统整体运行情况、各节点运行情况以及各项功能完成情况的统计和分析,实现故障问题的隔离和定位。     

江苏省大气重污染过程特征分析以及预报效果评估

结合了气象、环境的观测数据和模式数据对江苏省近两年冬季重污染过程进行了分析,并评估了模式和人工预估结果。研究表明,与2016年相比,2017年冬季的大气污染形势更加严峻,重污染天数和污染程度都明显增加。冬季风异常是造成重污染加重的重要原因,秋冬季预报时应该及时分析短期气候变化,尤其是风场的变化。     

基于退化量分布与退化轨迹的两种加速退化数据贮存寿命评估方法对比

首先陈述了加速退化数据的两种评估方法,对比两种评估方法的主要过程和适用范围.结合同一个试验数据,用两种方法分别进行处理,对比分析两种方法的评估结果.     

Using biological data from field studies with multiple reference sites as a basis for environmental management: the risks for false positives and false negatives

Field surveys of biological responses can provide valuable information about environmental status and anthropogenic stress. However, it is quite usual for biological variables to differ between sites or change between two periods of time also in the absence of an impact. This means that there is an obvious risk that natural variation will be interpreted as environmental impact, or that relevant effects will be missed due to insufficient statistical power. Furthermore, statistical methods tend to focus on the risks for Type-I error, i.e. false positives. For environmental management, the risk for false negatives is (at least) equally important. The aim of the present study was to investigate how the probabilities for false positives and negatives are affected by experimental set up (number of reference sites and samples per site), decision criteria (statistical method and α-level) and effect size. A model was constructed to simulate data from multiple reference sites, a negative control and a positive control. The negative control was taken from the same distribution as the reference sites and the positive control was just outside the normal range. Using the model, the probabilities to get false positives and false negatives were calculated when a conventional statistical test, based on a null hypothesis of no difference, was used along with alternative tests that were based on the normal range of natural variation. Here, it is tested if an investigated site is significantly inside (equivalence test) and significantly outside (interval test) the normal range. Furthermore, it was tested how the risks for false positives and false negatives are affected by changes in α-level and effect size. The results of the present study show that the strategy that best balances the risks between false positives and false negatives is to use the equivalence test. Besides tests with tabulated p-values, estimates generated using a bootstrap routine were included in the present study. The simulations showed that the probability for management errors was smaller for the bootstrap compared to the traditional test and the interval test.     

多种方法测量全国辐射环境监测质量考核样对比研究

介绍了有源效率刻度法及实验室γ谱无源效率刻度系统(Lab SOCS)在样品活度浓度分析中的原理，利用多型号低本底高纯锗γ谱仪，通过生态环境部辐射环境监测技术中心(下称技术中心)提供的沉降物考核样品，进行了两种分析方法的对比分析，对Lab SOCS软件可靠性进行验证并对比不同型号探测器性能。两种方法所得核素活度浓度结果与技术中心给定的参考值对比，报送数据均通过考核。分析结论如下:Lab SOCS仿真软件的计算结果是可靠的，可作为实验室分析的补充手段;多型号高纯锗谱仪性能分析结果，可为今后辐射测量中γ谱仪的选择提供参考。     

ESTIMATING MEAN AND VARIANCE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SAMPLES WITH BELOW DETECTION LIMIT OBSERVATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Left-censoring of data sets complicates subsequent statistical analyses. Generally, substitution or deletion methods provide poor estimates of the mean and variance of censored samples. These substitution and deletion methods include the use of values above the detection limit (DL) only, or substitution of 0, DL/2 or the DL for the below DL values during the calculation of mean and variance. A variety of statistical methods provides better estimators for different types of distributions and censoring. Maximum likelihood and order statistics methods compare favorably to the substitution or deletion methods. Selected statistical methods applicable to left-censoring of environmental data sets are reviewed with the purpose of demonstrating the use of these statistical methods for coping with Type I (and Type II) left-censoring of normally and log-normally distributed environmental data sets. A PC program (UNCENSOR) is presented that implements these statistical methods. Problems associated with data sets with multiple DLs are discussed relative to censoring methods for life and fatigue tests as recently applied to water quality data sets.     

改进的稳健统计技术在排水检测人员技能评价中的应用

目前排水检测行业中仍缺乏对技术人员进行技能评价的方法,或虽有评价方法,但方法存在不尽规范、合理等问题。稳健统计技术作为能力验证试验中广泛使用的结果评价方法,可消除异常数据的影响,使评价结果准确可靠。将稳健统计技术改进,作为技能评价要素中的一个分量,按照操作的准确性、规范性与熟练性三个方面评价排水检测人员检测数据结果,可以较科学、合理地反映检测人员的技能水平,为提高检测工作质量和实验室管理起到一定的借鉴作用。     

Fatty acid methyl ester analysis to identify sources of soil in surface water

Efforts to improve land-use practices to prevent contamination of surface waters with soil are limited by an inability to identify the primary sources of soil present in these waters. We evaluated the utility of fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) profiles of dry reference soils for multivariate statistical classification of soils collected from surface waters adjacent to agricultural production fields and a wooded riparian zone. Trials that compared approaches to concentrate soil from surface water showed that aluminum sulfate precipitation provided comparable yields to that obtained by vacuum filtration and was more suitable for handling large numbers of samples. Fatty acid methyl ester profiles were developed from reference soils collected from contrasting land uses in different seasons to determine whether specific fatty acids would consistently serve as variables in multivariate statistical analyses to permit reliable classification of soils. We used a Bayesian method and an independent iterative process to select appropriate fatty acids and found that variable selection was strongly impacted by the season during which soil was collected. The apparent seasonal variation in the occurrence of marker fatty acids in FAME profiles from reference soils prevented preparation of a standardized set of variables. Nevertheless, accurate classification of soil in surface water was achieved utilizing fatty acid variables identified in seasonally matched reference soils. Correlation analysis of entire chromatograms and subsequent discriminant analyses utilizing a restricted number of fatty acid variables showed that FAME profiles of soils exposed to the aquatic environment still had utility for classification at least 1 wk after submersion.     

空气质量预测模拟技术演变与发展研究

近年来我国的环境问题日益引人注目,大气污染问题显得尤为突出。空气质量预测技术方法能够提前预测区域空间内的大气污染物浓度,其发展十分迅速。本文介绍了一些国内外常用的空气质量预测技术方法的原理及案例,对其结果与局限性进行归纳总结,并对其未来发展提出展望。空气质量预测技术方法分为两类:数值模拟和统计学习,数值模拟通常可以分为第一代、第二代和第三代空气质量模型,统计学习可以分为简单经验统计和机器学习。两类方法的目的都是尽可能真实、准确地实现特定时间、特定区域范围内大气污染物浓度的预测,但两类方法的原理算法差异较大。该研究系统梳理了空气质量预测技术方法演变的历程和发展的现状,展望了其发展趋势,分析了建立、健全空气质量预测技术标准规范体系的重要性,提出了相关参考建议。     

What do significance tests really tell us about the environment?

Routine application of significance tests does not extract the maximum information from environmental data and can lead to misleading conclusions. Reasons leading to this are: a significant result can often be reached merely by collecting enough samples; a statistically significant result is not necessarily practically significant; and reports of the presence or absence of statistically significant differences for multiple tests are not comparable unless identical sample sizes are used. These problems are demonstrated by application to pH data for grazed and retired fields, and by discussion of significance tests used in recent US regulations for groundwater quality. The advantages of equivalence tests, where the tester must state the difference of practical difference, are discussed and applied to the field pH problem. We recommend that environmental managers and scientists pay more attention to statistical power and decide on what is a practical difference. Confidence intervals for the size of the differences, accompanied where necessary by equivalence tests, are the preferred means of addressing the question: “is there a difference of practical significance?”     

废印刷线路板处置和非金属回收利用研究进展

废印刷线路板的资源化处置一直是电子废弃物处理的热点和难点,目前有多种方法已经投入应用或者在研究阶段,这些方法在分离效率、回收率、操作简单性、本身环境友好性、有无二次污染等方面有不同的优缺点。目前主流的广泛采用的方法是分步处理,破碎后利用物理方法进行分选,得到的金属和非金属组分再分别进行进一步的回收利用。本文对近年来废印刷线路板的总体处置技术和物理分选后非金属的回收利用的研究进行了总结,并对将来的研究方向进行了展望,为废印刷线路板资源化再利用产业化发展提供参考。     

Towards an Integrated Approach to Natural Hazards Risk Assessment Using GIS: With Reference to Bushfires

This paper develops a GIS-based integrated approach to risk assessment in natural hazards, with reference to bushfires. The challenges for undertaking this approach have three components: data integration, risk assessment tasks, and risk decision-making. First, data integration in GIS is a fundamental step for subsequent risk assessment tasks and risk decision-making. A series of spatial data integration issues within GIS such as geographical scales and data models are addressed. Particularly, the integration of both physical environmental data and socioeconomic data is examined with an example linking remotely sensed data and areal census data in GIS. Second, specific risk assessment tasks, such as hazard behavior simulation and vulnerability assessment, should be undertaken in order to understand complex hazard risks and provide support for risk decision-making. For risk assessment tasks involving heterogeneous data sources, the selection of spatial analysis units is important. Third, risk decision-making concerns spatial preferences and/or patterns, and a multicriteria evaluation (MCE)-GIS typology for risk decision-making is presented that incorporates three perspectives: spatial data types, data models, and methods development. Both conventional MCE methods and artificial intelligence-based methods with GIS are identified to facilitate spatial risk decision-making in a rational and interpretable way. Finally, the paper concludes that the integrated approach can be used to assist risk management of natural hazards, in theory and in practice.