LIMITING NUTRIENT DETERMINATION IN LOTIC ECOSYSTEMS USING A QUANTITATIVE NUTRIENT ENRICHMENT PERIPHYTOMETER1

ABSTRACT: The decline of water quality in United States’ lotic ecosystems (streams and rivers) has been linked to nonpoint source nutrient loading (U.S. EPA, 1990). Determining limiting nutrients in streams is difficult due to the variable nature of lotic ecosystems. We developed a quantitative passive diffusion periphyton nutrient enrichment system, called the Matlock Periphytometer, to measure the response of attached algae (periphyton) to nutrient enrichment. The system is simple to build and provides quantitative nutrient enrichment of a surface for periphytic growth. The periphyton grow on a glass fiber filter, which allows complete recovery of periphyton for chlorophyll a analysis. A 14-kilodalton dialysis membrane was used as a biofilter to prevent bacterial and algal contamination of the nutrient solution. We determined the rates of diffusion of nitrogen and phosphorus ions across the Matlock Periphytometer's dialysis membrane and glass fiber filter over a 21-day period (42 and 22 μg/cm²/hr, respectively). We used the Matlock Periphytometer to determine the limiting nutrient in a woodland stream. Six replicates each of a control, nitrogen, and phosphorus treatment were placed in the stream for 14 days. The results indicated that phosphorus was the limiting nutrient in the stream for the period and location sampled.     

Developing Nutrient Criteria for Streams: An Evaluation of the Frequency Distribution Method1

Abstract: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommends two statistical methods to States and Tribes for developing nutrient criteria. One establishes a criterion as the 75th percentile of a reference‐population frequency distribution, the other uses the 25th percentile of a general‐population distribution; the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency suggests either method results in similar criteria. To evaluate each method, the Montana Department of Environmental Quality (MT DEQ) assembled data from STORET and other sources to create a nutrient general population. MT DEQ’s reference‐stream project provided reference population data. Data were partitioned by ecoregions, and by seasons (winter, runoff, and growing) defined for the project. For each ecoregion and season, nutrient concentrations at the 75th percentile of the reference population were matched to their corresponding concentrations in the general population. Additionally, nutrient concentrations from five regional scientific studies were matched to their corresponding reference population concentrations; each study linked nutrients to impacts on water uses. Reference‐to‐general population matches were highly variable between ecoregions, as nutrients at the 75th percentile of reference corresponded to percentiles ranging from the 4th to the 97th of the general population. In contrast, case studies‐to‐reference matches were more consistent, matching on average to the 86th percentile of reference, with a coefficient of variation of 13%.     

Surface‐Water Nutrient Conditions and Sources in the United States Pacific Northwest1

Wise, Daniel R. and Henry M. Johnson, 2011. Surface‐Water Nutrient Conditions and Sources in the United States Pacific Northwest. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):1110‐1135. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00580.x Abstract: The SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model was used to perform an assessment of surface‐water nutrient conditions and to identify important nutrient sources in watersheds of the Pacific Northwest region of the United States (U.S.) for the year 2002. Our models included variables representing nutrient sources as well as landscape characteristics that affect nutrient delivery to streams. Annual nutrient yields were higher in watersheds on the wetter, west side of the Cascade Range compared to watersheds on the drier, east side. High nutrient enrichment (relative to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s recommended nutrient criteria) was estimated in watersheds throughout the region. Forest land was generally the largest source of total nitrogen stream load and geologic material was generally the largest source of total phosphorus stream load generated within the 12,039 modeled watersheds. These results reflected the prevalence of these two natural sources and the low input from other nutrient sources across the region. However, the combined input from agriculture, point sources, and developed land, rather than natural nutrient sources, was responsible for most of the nutrient load discharged from many of the largest watersheds. Our results provided an understanding of the regional patterns in surface‐water nutrient conditions and should be useful to environmental managers in future water‐quality planning efforts.     

Development and evaluation of a Macroinvertebrate Biotic Integrity Index (MBII) for regionally assessing Mid-Atlantic Highlands Streams

The Macroinvertebrate Biotic Integrity Index (MBII) was developed from data collected at 574 wadeable stream reaches in the Mid-Atlantic Highlands region (MAHR) by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP). Over 100 candidate metrics were evaluated for range, precision, responsiveness to various disturbances, relationship to catchment area, and redundancy. Seven metrics were selected, representing taxa richness (Ephemeroptera richness, Plecoptera richness, Trichoptera richness), assemblage composition (percent non-insect individuals, percent 5 dominant taxa), pollution tolerance [Macroinvertebrate Tolerance Index (MTI)], and one functional feeding group (collector-filterer richness). We scored metrics and summed them, then ranked the resulting index through use of independently evaluated reference stream reaches. Although sites were classified into lowland and upland ecoregional groups, we did not need to develop separate scoring criteria for each ecoregional group. We were able to use the same metrics for pool and riffle composite samples, but we had to score them differently. Using the EMAP probability design, we inferred the results, with known confidence bounds, to the 167,797 kilometers of wadeable streams in the Mid-Atlantic Highlands. We classified 17% of the target stream length in the MAHR as good, 57% as fair, and 26% as poor. Pool-dominated reaches were relatively rare in the MAHR, and the usefulness of the MBII was more difficult to assess in these reaches. The process used for developing the MBII is widely applicable and resulted in an index effective in evaluating region-wide conditions and distinguishing good and impaired reaches among both upland and lowland streams dominated by riffle habitat.     

GIS‐Based Stream Classification in a Mountain Watershed for Jurisdictional Evaluation

This study analyzed stream characteristics in a mountain watershed in southwestern Colorado and developed a three‐level hierarchical classification scheme using national datasets to demonstrate jurisdictional evaluation as “waters of the United States (U.S.)” under U.S. Clean Water Act Section 404 at the watershed scale. The National Hydrography Dataset and USGS StreamStats were used with field observations to classify streams in the 53 km² Cement Creek Watershed based on flow duration (Level 1), stream order (Level 2), and other biophysical metrics (Level 3). Kruskal‐Wallis tests and discriminant analysis showed significant differences among Level 2 classes. Level 3 classification used cluster analysis for stream length, distance to the downstream traditional navigable water (TNW), and the ratio of mean annual flow from the source stream to the TNW. Results showed all perennial and intermittent streams are jurisdictional relatively permanent waters (RPWs), which include over a third of all streams, 64% are intermittent or ephemeral, and almost half are ephemeral first order. All ephemeral reaches are non‐RPWs requiring significant nexus evaluation to determine jurisdiction. These ephemeral first‐order streams can contribute 5% of the annual flow to the TNW at the confluence, while the Cement Creek main stem contributes 21% of the TNW flow. The study demonstrated that the classification provides key biophysical and regulatory information to aid jurisdictional evaluations in mountain watersheds.     

REGRESSION MODELS FOR ESTIMATING HERBICIDE CONCENTRATIONS IN U.S. STREAMS FROM WATERSHED CHARACTERISTICS1

ABSTRACT: Regression models were developed for estimating stream concentrations of the herbicides alachlor, atrazine, cyanazine, metolachior, and trilluralin from use‐intensity data and watershed characteristics. Concentrations were determined from samples collected from 45 streams throughout the United States during 1993 to 1995 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water‐Quality Assessment (NAWQA). Separate regression models were developed for each of six percentiles (10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th) of the annual distribution of stream concentrations and for the annual time‐weighted mean concentration. Estimates for the individual percentiles can be combined to provide an estimate of the annual distribution of concentrations for a given stream. Agricultural use of the herbicide in the watershed was a significant predictor in nearly all of the models. Several hydrologic and soil parameters also were useful in explaining the variability in concentrations of herbicides among the streams. Most of the regression models developed for estimation of concentration percentiles and annual mean concentrations accounted for 50 percent to 90 percent of the variability among streams. Predicted concentrations were nearly always within an order of magnitude of the measured concentrations for the model‐development streams, and predicted concentration distributions reasonably matched the actual distributions in most cases. Results from application of the models to streams not included in the model development data set are encouraging, but further validation of the regression approach described in this paper is needed.     

IMPACTS OF URBANIZATION ON NUTRIENT CONCENTRATIONS IN SMALL SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Coastal watersheds in the southeastern United States are rapidly changing due to population growth and attendant increases in residential development, industry, and tourism related commerce. This research examined spatial and temporal patterns of nutrient concentrations in streams from 10 small watersheds (< 4 km²) that drain into Murrells Inlet (impacted) and North Inlet (pristine), two high salinity estuaries along the South Carolina coast. Monthly grab samples were collected during baseflow during 1999 and analyzed for total and dissolved inorganic and organic forms of nitrogen and phosphorus. Data were grouped into forested wetland creeks (representing predevelopment reference sites), urban creeks, and urban ponds. DON and NH4 concentrations were greater in forested streams than in urban streams. NO3 and TP concentrations were greatest in urban streams. Seasonally, concentrations were highest during summer for TN, NH4, DON, and TP, while NO3 concentrations were greatest during winter. Nutrient ratios clearly highlighted the reduction in organic nitrogen due to coastal development. Multiple regression models to predict instream nutrient concentrations from land use in Murrells Inlet suggest that effects are not significant (small r²). The findings indicate that broad land use/land cover classes cannot be used to predict nutrient concentrations in streams in the very small watersheds in our study areas.     

Magnitude,Frequency, and Duration Relations for Suspended Sediment in Stable (“Reference”) Southeastern Streams1

Abstract: Sediment is listed as one of the leading causes of water‐quality impairments in surface waters of the United States (U.S.). A water body becomes listed by a State, Territory or Tribe if its designated use is not being attained (i.e., impaired). In many cases, the prescribed designated use is aquatic health or habitat, indicating that total maximum daily loads (TMDL) targets for sediment should be functionally related to this use. TMDL targets for sediment transport have been developed for many ecoregions over the past several years using suspended‐sediment yield as a metric. Target values were based on data from “reference” streams or reaches, defined as those exhibiting geomorphic characteristics of equilibrium. This approach has proved useful to some states developing TMDLs for suspended sediment, although one cannot conclude that if a stream exceeds the target range, the aquatic ecosystem will be adversely impacted. To address this problem, historical flow‐transport and sediment‐transport data from hundreds of sites in the Southeastern U.S. were re‐examined to develop parameters (metrics) such as frequency and duration of sediment concentrations. Sites determined as geomorphically stable from field evaluations and from analysis of gauging‐station records were sorted by ecoregion. Mean‐daily flow data obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey were applied to sediment‐transport rating relations to determine suspended‐sediment load for each day of record. The frequency and duration that a given concentration was equaled or exceeded were then calculated to produce a frequency distribution for each site. “Reference” distributions were created using the stable sites in each ecoregion by averaging all of the distributions at specified exceedance intervals. As with the “reference” suspended‐sediment yields, there is a broad range of frequency and duration distributions that reflects the hydrologic and sediment‐transport regimes of the ecoregions. Ecoregions such as the Mississippi Valley Loess Plains (#74) maintain high suspended sediment concentrations for extended periods, whereas coastal plain ecoregions (#63 and 75) show much lower concentrations.     

Land Use,Geology, Enrichment,and Stream Biota in the Eastern Ridge and Valley Ecoregion: Implications for Nutrient Criteria Development1

Abstract: The eastern panhandle region of West Virginia is entirely within the Appalachian Ridge and Valley ecoregion. It is underlain by limestone in the eastern part and by shale and sandstone in the western part. Agricultural and urban development has affected the condition of the streams of this region. We examined samples from 165 stations in the Ridge and Valley, collected from 1998 to 2004. Land use, geological characteristics, physical and chemical parameters, and algal and macroinvertebrate assemblages were used to identify potential stressors that affect streams in the region. Our analyses indicated that both human land uses and ecoregional differences led to elevated nutrient concentrations in streams of the study areas. Multiple regression analyses indicated that both agricultural and urban land use in the watershed were associated with high nutrient concentrations (NO₂₊₃, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus) in streams. These elevated nutrient concentrations have led to increased algal biomass, increased trophic state, and degradation of macroinvertebrate community in the streams. Values of the West Virginia Stream Condition Index, as well as several other benthic macroinvertebrate metrics, decreased with increased nutrient concentrations and conductivity, especially in the limestone region. When regional differences were partitioned out in the analysis, nutrient concentrations became the strongest stressor in the limestone region while conductivity exhibited less of an effect on macroinvertebrate metrics. Meanwhile, periphyton diagnostic metrics also responded to increased nutrient concentrations, suggesting nutrients could be a cause of biological degradation in the Eastern Ridge and Valley region. Multiple approaches and multiple lines of evidence (reference approach and stressor‐response approach) were applied to develop nutrient benchmarks for different geological regions in the study watershed.     

Effects of forest clearcutting in New England on stream macroinvertebrates and periphyton

Clearcutting may alter stream biota by changing light, temperature, nutrients, sediment particle size, or food in the stream. We sampled macroinvertebrates during late summer of 1979 in first and second order headwater streams draining both two- and three-year-old clearcuts and nearby uncut reference areas in northern New England, USA. Periphyton were sampled throughout the summer by placing microscope slides in these streams for 13–37 days. Periphyton cell densities on these slides following incubation were about six times higher in cutover than in reference streams. Green algae (Chlorophyceae) accounted for a higher proportion of total cell numbers in cutover than in reference streams, whereas diatoms (Bacillariophyceae) dominated the reference streams. The macroinvertebrate density in cutover streams was 2–4 times greater than that in the reference streams, but the number of taxa collected was similar in both cutover and reference streams. Higher numbers of mayflies (Ephemeroptera) and/or true flies (Diptera) in the cutover streams accounted for the differences. Because nutrient concentrations in the cutover streams were nearly the same as those in the reference streams, these differences in macroinvertebrate and periphyton densities were apparently caused by higher light levels and temperature in the streams in the clearcuts. Leaving buffer strips along streams will reduce changes in stream biology associated with clearcutting.Contribution from the Northeastern Forest Experiment Station, USDA Forest Service, Durham, New Hampshire 03824, USA.     

Comparison of Three Pebble Count Protocols (EMAP,PIBO, and SFT) in Two Mountain Gravel‐Bed Streams1

Abstract: Although the term ``pebble count'' is in widespread use, there is no standardized methodology used for the field application of this procedure. Each pebble count analysis is the product of several methodological choices, any of which are capable of influencing the final result. Because there are virtually countless variations on pebble count protocols, the question of how their results differ when applied to the same study reach is becoming increasingly important. This study compared three pebble count protocols: the reach‐averaged Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) protocol named after the EMAP developed by the Environmental Protection Agency, the habitat‐unit specific U.S. Forest Service’s PACFISH/INFISH Biological Opinion (PIBO) Effectiveness Monitoring Program protocol, and a data‐intensive method developed by the authors named Sampling Frame and Template (SFT). When applied to the same study reaches, particle‐size distributions varied among the three pebble count protocols because of differences in sample locations within a stream reach and along a transect, in particle selection, and particle‐size determination. The EMAP protocol yielded considerably finer, and the PIBO protocol considerably coarser distributions than the SFT protocol in the pool‐riffle study streams, suggesting that the data cannot be used interchangeably. Approximately half of the difference was due to sampling at different areas within the study reach (i.e., wetted width, riffles, and bankfull width) and at different locations within a transect. The other half was attributed to using different methods for particle selection from the bed, particle‐size determination, and the use of wide, nonstandard size classes. Most of the differences in sampling outcomes could be eliminated by using simple field tools, by collecting a larger sample size, and by systematically sampling the entire bankfull channel and all geomorphic units within the reach.     

Hydrogeomorphic Reference Condition and Its Relationship with Macroinvertebrate Assemblages in Southeastern U.S. Sand Hills Streams

Defining stream reference conditions is integral to providing benchmarks to ecological perturbation. We quantified channel geometry, hydrologic and environmental variables, and macroinvertebrates in 62 low‐gradient, SE United States (U.S.) Sand Hills (Level IV ecoregion) sand‐bed streams. To identify hydrogeomorphic reference condition (HGM), we clustered channel geometry deviation from expectations given watershed area (Aws), resulting in two HGM groups discriminated by area at the top of bank (Atob) residuals <0.6 m² and >0.6 m² predicted to be HGM reference/nonreference streams, respectively. Two independent partial least squares discriminate analyses used (1) hydrologic/environmental variables and (2) macroinvertebrate mean trait values (mT) on 10 reference/nonreference stream pairs of similar Aws for classification validation. Nonreference streams had flashier hydrographs and altered flow magnitudes, lower organic matter, coarser substrate, higher pH/specific conductivity compared with reference streams. Macroinvertebrate assemblages corresponded to HGM groupings, with mT indicative of multivoltinism, collector‐gatherer functional feeding groups, fast current‐preference taxa, and lower Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera richness and biotic integrity in nonreference streams. HGM classifications in Sand Hills, sand‐bed streams were determined from channel geometry. This easily implemented classification is indicative of contemporary hydrologic disturbance resulting in contrasting macroinvertebrate assemblages.     

Pairing Modern and Paleolimnological Approaches to Evaluate the Nutrient Status of Lakes in Upper Midwest National Parks

Understanding what constitutes a reference (background) nutrient condition for lakes is important for National Park Service managers responsible for preserving and protecting aquatic resources. For this study we characterize water quality conditions in 29 lakes across four national parks, and compare their nutrient status to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) nutrient reference criteria and alternative criteria recently proposed by others. Where appropriate we also compare the nutrient status of these 29 lakes to state or tribal nutrient reference criteria or standards. For lakes that exceed reference criteria we investigate physical and chemical patterns, and for a subset of lakes compare modern nutrient conditions to paleolimnological (i.e., diatom‐inferred [DI]) nutrient reconstructions. Many lakes exceeded USEPA nutrient reference criteria, but met alternative less restrictive criteria. Modern nutrient conditions were also largely consistent with DI historic (pre‐1900) nutrient conditions. Lakes exceeding alternative nutrient criteria and with elevated nutrient levels relative to DI historic conditions were mostly small, shallow, and dystrophic; continued attention to their nutrient dynamics and biological response is warranted. Coupling modern and paleolimnological data offer an innovative and scientifically defensible approach to understand long‐term nutrient trends and provide greater context for comparison with reference conditions.     

DISCHARGE AND SUSPENDED SEDIMENT PATTERNS OF AN INTERMITTENT COLD DESERT STREAM1

Sage Creek in south‐central Wyoming is listed as impaired by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) due to its sediment contribution to the North Platte River. Despite the magnitude of sediment impacts on streams, little research has been conducted to characterize patterns of sediment transport or to model suspended sediment concentration in many arid western U.S. streams. This study examined the relationship between stream discharge and suspended sediment concentration near the Sage Creek and North Platte River confluence from 1998 through 2003. The objectives were to determine patterns of stream discharge and suspended sediment concentration, produce a sediment prediction model, and compare sediment concentrations for the six‐year period. Stream discharge and suspended sediment transport responded rapidly to convective storms and spring runoff events. During the study period, events exceeding 0.23 m³/s accounted for 92 percent of the sediment load, which is believed to originate from erodible headwater uplands. Further analysis of these data indicates that time series modeling is superior to simple linear regression in predicting sediment concentration. Significant increases in suspended sediment concentration occurred in all years except 2003. This analysis suggests that a six‐year monitoring record was insufficient to factor out impacts from climate, geology, and historical sediment storage.     

Bankfull Regional Curves for North and Northwest Florida Streams1

Abstract: Regional curves, which relate bankfull channel dimensions and discharge to watershed drainage area, are developed to aid in identifying the bankfull stage in ungaged watersheds, and estimating the bankfull discharge and dimensions for river studies and natural channel design applications. This study assessed 26 stable stream reaches in two hydro‐physiographic regions of the Florida Coastal Plain: the Northwest Florida Coastal Plain (NWFCP) and the North Florida Coastal Plain (NFCP). Data from stream reaches in Georgia and Alabama were also used to develop the Florida regional curves, since they are located in the same hydro‐physiographic region. Reaches were selected based on the presence of U.S. Geological Survey gage stations and indicators of limited watershed development (e.g., <10% impervious surface). Analyses were conducted to determine bankfull channel dimensions, bankfull discharge, average channel slope, and Rosgen stream classification. Based on these data, significant relationships were found between bankfull cross‐sectional area, width, mean depth, and discharge as a function of drainage area for both regions. Data from this study suggested that bankfull discharges and channel dimensions were larger from NWFCP streams than from Coastal Plain streams in North Carolina and Maryland. Bankfull discharges were similar between NFCP and Georgia coastal plain streams; therefore, the data were combined into one regional curve. In addition, the data were stratified by Rosgen stream type. This stratification strengthened the relationships of bankfull width and mean depth as a function of drainage area.     

Adequacy of Visually Classified Particle Count Statistics From Regional Stream Habitat Surveys1

Abstract: Streamlined sampling procedures must be used to achieve a sufficient sample size with limited resources in studies undertaken to evaluate habitat status and potential management‐related habitat degradation at a regional scale. At the same time, these sampling procedures must achieve sufficient precision to answer science and policy‐relevant questions with an acceptable and statistically quantifiable level of uncertainty. In this paper, we examine precision and sources of error in streambed substrate characterization using data from the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, which uses a modified “pebble count” method in which particle sizes are visually estimated rather than measured. While the coarse (2?) size classes used in EMAP have little effect on the precision of estimated geometric mean (D_gm) or median (D₅₀) particle diameter, variable classification bias among observers can contribute as much as 0.3?, or about 15‐20%, to the root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of D_gm or D₅₀ estimates. D_gm and D₅₀ estimates based on EMAP data are nearly equal when fine sediments (<2 mm) are excluded, but otherwise can differ by up to a factor of 2 or more, with D_gm < D₅₀ for gravel‐bed streams. The RMSE of reach‐scale particle size estimates based on visually classified particle count data from EMAP surveys, including variability associated with reoccupying unmarked sample reaches during revisits, is up to five to seven times higher than that reported for traditional measured pebble counts by multiple observers at a plot scale. Nonetheless, a variance partitioning analysis shows that the ratio of among site to revisit variance for several EMAP substrate metrics exceeds 8 for many potential regions of interest, suggesting that the data have adequate precision to be useful in regional assessments of channel morphology, habitat quality, or ecological condition.     

Biophysical‐Regulatory Classification and Profiling of Streams Across Management Units and Ecoregions1

Caruso, Brian S. and Joshua Haynes, 2011. Biophysical‐Regulatory Classification and Profiling of Streams Across Management Units and Ecoregions. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 00(0):1‐22. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00522.x Abstract: Aquatic resources management in the United States (U.S.) under Clean Water Act Section 404 has become more complex after recent Supreme Court decisions and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) guidance. Many intermittent/ephemeral and headwater streams may not be jurisdictional if they lack a significant nexus with navigable waters. Streams in semiarid USEPA Region 8 were classified based on hydrologic permanence and stream order using National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) Plus and GIS to provide information across broad spatial scales to aid with jurisdictional determinations (JDs). Four classes were developed for profiling across management units and ecoregions. Based on medium‐resolution NHDPlus data, intermittent streams comprise >¾, and first order streams constitute >½ of the total stream length in Region 8. Mountain states and ecoregions have the largest percentage of perennial first order streams, whereas the Dakotas, plains, and desert ecoregions have the greatest percentages of intermittent first order and intermittent higher order streams. In the Upper Colorado River Basin, >50% of reaches are intermittent first order, and 9% are perennial first order. NHDPlus data can significantly underestimate the length of headwater and intermittent streams, but can still be a valuable tool to help develop stream classes and for regional JD planning and analysis. Refinement of the stream classes using high resolution NHD data and other key catchment parameters can improve their utility for JDs.     

ESTIMATING STREAMFLOW AND ASSOCIATED HYDRAULIC GEOMETRY,THE MID‐ATLANTIC REGION,USA1

ABSTRACT: Methods to estimate streamflow and channel hydraulic geometry were developed for unpaged streams in the Mid‐Atlantic Region. Observed mean annual streamflow and associated hydraulic geometry data from 75 gaging stations in the Appalachian Plateau, the Ridge and Valley, and the Piedmont Physiographic Provinces of the Mid‐Atlantic Region were used to develop a set of power functions that relate streamflow to drainage area and hydraulic geometry to streamflow. For all three physiographic provinces, drainage area explained 95 to 98 percent of the variance in mean annual streamflow. Relationships between mean annual streamflow and water surface width and mean flow depth had coefficients of determination that ranged from R²= 0.55 to R²= 0.91, but the coefficient of determination between mean flow velocity and mean annual streamflow was lower (R²= 0.44 to R²= 0.54). The advantages of using the regional regression models to estimate streamflow over a conceptual model or a water balance model are its ease of application and reduced input data needs. The prediction of the regression equations were tested with data collected as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP). In addition, equations to transfer streamflow from gaged to ungaged streams are presented.     

Headwater Influences on Downstream Water Quality

We investigated the influence of riparian and whole watershed land use as a function of stream size on surface water chemistry and assessed regional variation in these relationships. Sixty-eight watersheds in four level III U.S. EPA ecoregions in eastern Kansas were selected as study sites. Riparian land cover and watershed land use were quantified for the entire watershed, and by Strahler order. Multiple regression analyses using riparian land cover classifications as independent variables explained among-site variation in water chemistry parameters, particularly total nitrogen (41%), nitrate (61%), and total phosphorus (63%) concentrations. Whole watershed land use explained slightly less variance, but riparian and whole watershed land use were so tightly correlated that it was difficult to separate their effects. Water chemistry parameters sampled in downstream reaches were most closely correlated with riparian land cover adjacent to the smallest (first-order) streams of watersheds or land use in the entire watershed, with riparian zones immediately upstream of sampling sites offering less explanatory power as stream size increased. Interestingly, headwater effects were evident even at times when these small streams were unlikely to be flowing. Relationships were similar among ecoregions, indicating that land use characteristics were most responsible for water quality variation among watersheds. These findings suggest that nonpoint pollution control strategies should consider the influence of small upland streams and protection of downstream riparian zones alone is not sufficient to protect water quality.     

Modeling Summer Month Hydrological Drought Probabilities in the United States Using Antecedent Flow Conditions

Climate change raises concern that risks of hydrological drought may be increasing. We estimate hydrological drought probabilities for rivers and streams in the United States (U.S.) using maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR). Streamflow data from winter months are used to estimate the chance of hydrological drought during summer months. Daily streamflow data collected from 9,144 stream gages from January 1, 1884 through January 9, 2014 provide hydrological drought streamflow probabilities for July, August, and September as functions of streamflows during October, November, December, January, and February, estimating outcomes 5‐11 months ahead of their occurrence. Few drought prediction methods exploit temporal links among streamflows. We find MLLR modeling of drought streamflow probabilities exploits the explanatory power of temporally linked water flows. MLLR models with strong correct classification rates were produced for streams throughout the U.S. One ad hoc test of correct prediction rates of September 2013 hydrological droughts exceeded 90% correct classification. Some of the best‐performing models coincide with areas of high concern including the West, the Midwest, Texas, the Southeast, and the Mid‐Atlantic. Using hydrological drought MLLR probability estimates in a water management context can inform understanding of drought streamflow conditions, provide warning of future drought conditions, and aid water management decision making.