Coupling a settlement growth model with an agro-economic land allocation model for securing ecosystem services provision

Mountain landscapes are undergoing rapid land-use changes. Settlement expansion, the intensification of agricultural land-use practices, and farmland abandonment result in a decline of natural and semi-natural habitats and the related ecosystem services (ES). In this context, spatial planning has emerged as a key instrument for the management of ES provision. To better understand trade-offs and interactions between settlement growth and ES provision in a spatially explicit manner, we present a new modeling framework coupling an agent-based, agro-economic optimization model and a cellular-automata-based settlement growth model. The framework is applied in an inner alpine valley in the Valais, Switzerland, which experienced rapid settlement growth in recent years. Results demonstrate how the model framework allows support of local planning processes. Particularly cooperation among municipalities and an explicit consideration of ES can inform spatially explicit ES trade-off decisions under increasing demand for land. We conclude that better informed spatial planning processes support ES provision.     

TIM: Assessing the sustainability of agricultural land management

TIM (Threat Identification Model) is a framework for the ex ante assessment of agricultural land management sustainability at the land unit scale that identifies sources of unsustainability within agricultural land management systems. The model explicitly links defined hazards to land productivity and environmental integrity, land resource data and information, and land management practice options using expert and local knowledge on land management and its potential effects. The model was tested in the Crystal Creek Subcatchment, a narrow coastal strip of land situated in north Queensland, Australia. This area was chosen due to the expansion of the sugar industry onto increasingly marginal land in the area, which represents a threat to sustainable land use and a requirement for careful land-use planning and land management.TIM may be used in a relational database as a stand alone decision support system for land-management planning. Its usefulness in land-use planning is greatest when it is linked to a Geographic Information System (GIS) as shown in this paper. GIS allows TIM outputs, such as constraints to agriculture and site-specific best-management practices, to be identified in a spatially explicit manner.The main advantages of TIM are that it can be done ex ante, it removes the need to define sustainability assessment criteria and indicators, it utilises current understanding of the causes and effects of land degradation and how different land-management practices influence these, and links this knowledge to definite land-management options.     

Land-Cover Change Trajectories in Northern Ghana

Land-cover change trajectories are an emergent property of complex human–environment systems such as the land-use system. An understanding of the factors responsible for land change trajectories is fundamental for land-use planning and the development of land-related policies. The aims of this study were to characterize and identify the spatial determinants of agricultural land-cover change trajectories in northern Ghana. Land-cover change trajectories were defined using land-cover maps prepared from Landsat Thematic Mapper dataset acquired in 1984, 1992, and 1999. Binary logistic regression was used to model the probability of observing the trajectories as a function of spatially explicit biophysical and socioeconomic independent variables. Population densities generally increased along the continuum of land-use intensity, whereas distance from market and roads generally decreased along this continuum. Apparently, roads and market serve as incentives for settlement and agricultural land use. An increase in population density is an important spatial determinant only for trajectories where the dominant change process is agricultural extensification. A major response to population growth is an increase in cultivation frequency around the main market. Agricultural intensification is highly sensitive to accessibility by roads. The increase in land-use intensity is also associated with low soil quality. These results suggest the need for policies to restore soil fertility for agricultural sustainability. The models also provide a means for identifying functional relationships for in-depth analyses of land-use change in Ghana.     

Constructing land-use maps of the Netherlands in 2030

The National Environmental Assessment Agency of the RIVM in the Netherlands is obliged to report on future trends in the environment and nature every 4 years. The last report, Nature Outlook 2, evaluated the effects of four alternative socio-economic and demographic scenarios on nature and the landscape. Spatially detailed land-use maps are needed to assess effects on nature and landscape. The objective of the study presented here was how to create spatially detailed land-use maps of the Netherlands in 2030 using the Environment Explorer, a Cellular Automata-based land-use model to construct land-use maps from four scenarios. One of these is discussed in great detail to show how the maps were constructed from the various scenario elements, story lines and additional data and assumptions on national, regional and local land-use developments. It was the first time in the history of our outlooks that consistent, spatially detailed land-use maps of the Netherlands for 2030 were constructed from national economic and demographic scenarios. Each map represents a direct reflection of model input and assumptions. The maps do not show the most probable developments in the Netherlands but describe the possible change in land use if Dutch society were to develop according to one of the four scenarios. The large (societal) uncertainties are reflected in the total set of future land-use maps. The application of a land-use model such as the Environment Explorer ensures that all relevant aspects of a scenario, i.e. economic and demographic developments, zoning policies and urban growth, are integrated systematically into one consistent framework.     

Exploring changes in Ecuadorian land use for food production and their effects on natural resources

A model is used for the dynamic and spatially explicit exploration of near future agricultural land-use changes. In a case study for Ecuador, different plausible scenarios are formulated, taking into account possible developments in national food demand until the year 2010. The protection of nature parks and restrictions due to land degradation are evaluated with respect to their possible spatial impacts on the land-use change dynamics within the country. Under the assumptions of the demand scenarios, agricultural land-use expands significantly, resulting in more use of land in existing agricultural areas and frontier-type expansion into relatively undisturbed natural areas. The patterns of change depend on the increase in demand, competition between land-use types, changes in driving factors of land use, and the area and characteristics of land that is excluded from agricultural use. The modelled land-use dynamics are related to their possible impacts on the natural resource base, specifically soil fertility. The results indicate potential negative effects of land-use changes on the soil nutrient balance and biodiversity. It is argued that spatial and temporal quantification of land-use dynamics at the landscape level can support research and policies aimed at understanding the driving factors of land-use change and the behaviour of complex agro-ecosystems under changing conditions at different scales. In this way, issues dealing with sustainable food production and the management of the natural resource base can be addressed in a more integrated and quantitative manner.     

Sustainable decisions on the agenda – a decision support tool and its application on climate-change adaptation

A decision support tool aiming to facilitate discussion and transparency in land-use planning processes has been developed. It includes process steps initiating with an analysis of the current situation, identification of relevant actions and sustainability analysis steps. The sustainability was subdivided into human health and environment, resources, and social and economic impacts. The main difference between this risk analysis tool and others is the allowance of comparisons of present risks and consequences of measures early in the process. It also includes assessments from short- and long-term perspectives, such as taking into account climate change. It combines classic risk analysis with life-cycle assessment procedure. It has been developed and tested in co-operation with municipalities. The tests show that the tool is applicable and can be relevant in the planning process. It offers an iterative discussion framework that is systematic, condensed and yet a simplistic way of describing consequences. The criticism is that it is regarded as time demanding, but this can be managed by preparatory work.     

Understanding farmers' influence on land-use change using a participatory Bayesian network approach in a pre-Alpine region in Switzerland

Land-use models can be used to assess the importance of different drivers of land-use change. Local actors make land-use decisions on the basis of both biophysical and policy aspects, but they can also be considered as autonomous drivers as their attitudes and beliefs influence land-use substantially. We use a Bayesian network-based Land-use Modeling Approach (BLUMAP) to analyze influences of local actor characteristics on land-use change in a spatially explicit manner. Our analysis shows that local actor characteristics have a greater influence on land-use change than changes in agricultural policy schemes. Furthermore, focusing on the probabilities of land-use occurrence under different scenarios facilitates the quantification of influences of local actor characteristics on land-use changes and aids in the detection of where land-use changes are more likely to occur. We demonstrate that local actor characteristics could override land-use policy trends; thus, greater consideration should be paid to actors in land-use development processes.     

Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model

Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S. The model is specifically developed for the analysis of land use in small regions (e.g., a watershed or province) at a fine spatial resolution. The model structure is based on systems theory to allow the integrated analysis of land-use change in relation to socio-economic and biophysical driving factors. The model explicitly addresses the hierarchical organization of land use systems, spatial connectivity between locations and stability. Stability is incorporated by a set of variables that define the relative elasticity of the actual land-use type to conversion. The user can specify these settings based on expert knowledge or survey data. Two applications of the model in the Philippines and Malaysia are used to illustrate the functioning of the model and its validation.     

A Comprehensive Land-Use/Hydrological Modeling System for Scenario Simulations in the Elbow River Watershed, Alberta, Canada

The Elbow River watershed in Alberta covers an area of 1,238 km² and represents an important source of water for irrigation and municipal use. In addition to being located within the driest area of southern Canada, it is also subjected to considerable pressure for land development due to the rapid population growth in the City of Calgary. In this study, a comprehensive modeling system was developed to investigate the impact of past and future land-use changes on hydrological processes considering the complex surface–groundwater interactions existing in the watershed. Specifically, a spatially explicit land-use change model was coupled with MIKE SHE/MIKE 11, a distributed physically based catchment and channel flow model. Following a rigorous sensitivity analysis along with the calibration and validation of these models, four land-use change scenarios were simulated from 2010 to 2031: business as usual (BAU), new development concentrated within the Rocky View County (RV-LUC) and in Bragg Creek (BC-LUC), respectively, and development based on projected population growth (P-LUC). The simulation results reveal that the rapid urbanization and deforestation create an increase in overland flow, and a decrease in evapotranspiration (ET), baseflow, and infiltration mainly in the east sub-catchment of the watershed. The land-use scenarios affect the hydrology of the watershed differently. This study is the most comprehensive investigation of its nature done so far in the Elbow River watershed. The results obtained are in accordance with similar studies conducted in Canadian contexts. The proposed modeling system represents a unique and flexible framework for investigating a variety of water related sustainability issues.     

Linking Models of Land Use,Resources, and Economy to Simulate the Development of Mountain Regions (ALPSCAPE)

We present a framework of a scenario-based model that simulates the development of the municipality of Davos (Swiss Alps). We illustrate our method with the calculation of the scenario for 2050 “Decrease in subsidies for mountain agriculture and liberalization of markets.” The main objective was to link submodels of land-use allocation (regression-based approach), material and energy flows submodels (Material and Energy Flux Analysis), and economic submodels (Input–Output Analysis). Letting qualitative and quantitative information flow from one submodel to the next, following the storyline describing a scenario, has proven to be suitable for linking submodels. The succession of the submodels is then strongly dependent on the scenario. Qualitative information flows are simulated with microsimulations of actor choices. Links between the submodels show different degrees of robustness: although the links involving microsimulations are the weakest, the uncertainty introduced by the land-use allocation model is actually advantageous because it allows one possible change in the landscape in the future to be simulated. The modeling results for the scenario here presented show that the disappearance of agriculture only marginally affects the region’s factor income, but that the consequences for the self-sufficiency rate, for various landscape-related indicators and ecosystem services, and for the economy in the long term may be considerable. These benefits compensate for agriculture’s modest direct economic value. The framework presented can potentially be applied to any region and scenario. This framework provides a basis for a learning package that allows potential detrimental consequences of regional development to be anticipated at an early stage.     

Spatially explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for multicriteria-based vulnerability assessment

This research analyses the application of spatially explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for GIS (Geographic Information System) multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) within a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment regarding flooding in the Salzach river catchment in Austria. The research methodology is based on a spatially explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of GIS-CDA for an assessment of the social, economic, and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. The main objective of this research is to demonstrate how a unified approach of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis can be applied to minimise the associated uncertainty within each dimension of the vulnerability assessment. The methodology proposed for achieving this objective is composed of four main steps. The first step is computing criteria weights using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In the second step, Monte Carlo simulation is applied to calculate the uncertainties associated with AHP weights. In the third step, the global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is employed in the form of a model-independent method of output variance decomposition, in which the variability of the different vulnerability assessments is apportioned to every criterion weight, generating one first-order (S) and one total effect (ST) sensitivity index map per criterion weight. Finally, in the fourth step, an ordered weighted averaging method is applied to model the final vulnerability maps. The results of this research demonstrate the robustness of spatially explicit GSA for minimising the uncertainty associated with GIS-MCDA models. Based on these results, we conclude that applying the variance-based GSA enables assessment of the importance of each input factor for the results of the GIS-MCDA method, both spatially and statistically, thus allowing us to introduce and recommend GIS-based GSA as a useful methodology for minimising the uncertainty of GIS-MCDA.     

Terrestrial metapopulation dynamics: a nonlinear bioeconomic model analysis

This paper presents a spatially explicit bioeconomic analysis of species conservation in agricultural areas. Wild species in fragmented agricultural landscapes are best approached as metapopulations consisting of a finite number of local populations. Economic analysis of species conservation in fragmented habitat needs to deal with metapopulation theory and its theoretical implications. This paper presents a spatially explicit bioeconomic model consisting of a straightforward economic land use model and an applied metapopulation model. This paper demonstrates that multiple equilibria and multiple local optima in metapopulations might lead to nonconvexities in the production possibilities set of agricultural profits and species conservation.     

Natural resource planning: An urban prospective

The use and development of natural resources is becoming a critical concern, especially considering the economic development and stability of the world money market. The question here is one of resources as a political weapon. As resources become more scarce, it becomes necessary to make greater intensive use of resources that are presently available. One dimension that has been missing is the development of urban areas. Resources in this domain have been abused and the question now is how to incorporate these types of decisions into land-use planning to refurbish urban areas. Planning is the key to use of a resource. The world can no longer afford crisis planning. The key dimension to future success in resource problems is preventive planning.     

Anticipating Forest and Range Land Development in Central Oregon (USA) for Landscape Analysis, with an Example Application Involving Mule Deer

Forest policymakers, public lands managers, and scientists in the Pacific Northwest (USA) seek ways to evaluate the landscape-level effects of policies and management through the multidisciplinary development and application of spatially explicit methods and models. The Interagency Mapping and Analysis Project (IMAP) is an ongoing effort to generate landscape-wide vegetation data and models to evaluate the integrated effects of disturbances and management activities on natural resource conditions in Oregon and Washington (USA). In this initial analysis, we characterized the spatial distribution of forest and range land development in a four-county pilot study region in central Oregon. The empirical model describes the spatial distribution of buildings and new building construction as a function of population growth, existing development, topography, land-use zoning, and other factors. We used the model to create geographic information system maps of likely future development based on human population projections to inform complementary landscape analyses underway involving vegetation, habitat, and wildfire interactions. In an example application, we use the model and resulting maps to show the potential impacts of future forest and range land development on mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) winter range. Results indicate significant development encroachment and habitat loss already in 2000 with development located along key migration routes and increasing through the projection period to 2040. The example application illustrates a simple way for policymakers and public lands managers to combine existing data and preliminary model outputs to begin to consider the potential effects of development on future landscape conditions.     

Metapopulations in Agricultural Landscapes: A Spatially Explicit Trade-off Analysis

This paper presents a spatially explicit trade-off analysis of species conservation in agricultural areas. A spatially explicit model is presented that integrates an applied metapopulation model with a farm management model. The model is used to calculate production possibilities frontiers of net monetary benefits from agriculture and conservation of three species with different habitats. Simulations of spatial habitat allocation under European agri-environment schemes are compared to these production possibilities frontiers. The results suggest that the cost-effectiveness of current conservation policies may be greatly enhanced if the spatial dimension is considered explicitly.     

Assessing Land-Use Impacts on Natural Resources

/ Much information is available on changes that occur in natural resources from both spatially-explicit data on environmental conditions and models of the interactions of these conditions and resources with human activities. The strategy for assessing land-use impacts on natural resources developed in this paper provides a framework for using relevant data and models to address questions of how management practices can promote both use and protection of resources. This assessment strategy integrates spatially explicit environmental data using geographic information systems (GIS) with computer models that simulate changes in land cover in response to land-use impacts. The computer models also simulate susceptibility of species to changes in habitat suitability and landscape patterns. The approach is applied to management of limestone barrens on the Oak Ridge Reservation in East Tennessee. Potential limestone barrens habitats are identified by overlaying appropriate soils, geology, slope, and land-use/land-cover conditions. Their validity is tested against known sites containing rare species that occur in these habitats. The location of habitats at risk in the aftermath of human activities is determined by using an available area model that identifies the size and proximity of sites that particular types of species can no longer use as habitat. The resulting risk map can be used in land management planning. The approach uses readily available in situ and remotely sensed data and is applicable to a wide range of locations and land-use scenarios. This approach can be refined based on needs identified by land managers and on the sensitivity of the results to the resolution of available resource information.KEY WORDS: Land management; Assessment; Habitat characterization; Limestone barrens; Ecological modeling; Geographic information systems     

Soil erosion vulnerability under scenarios of climate land-use changes after the development of a large reservoir in a semi-arid area

Climate and land-use/cover changes (LUCC) influence soil erosion vulnerability in the semi-arid region of Alqueva, threatening the reservoir storage capacity and sustainability of the landscape. Considering the effect of these changes in the future, the purpose of this study was to investigate soil erosion scenarios using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model. A multi-agent system combining Markov cellular automata with multi-criteria evaluation was used to investigate LUCC scenarios according to delineated regional strategies. Forecasting scenarios indicated that the intensive agricultural area as well as the sparse and xerophytic vegetation and rainfall-runoff erosivity would increase, consequently causing the soil erosion to rise from 1.78 Mg ha^?1 to 3.65 Mg ha^?1 by 2100. A backcasting scenario was investigated by considering the application of soil conservation practices that would decrease the soil erosion considerably to an average of 2.27 Mg ha^?1. A decision support system can assist stakeholders in defining restrictive practices and developing conservation plans, contributing to control the reservoir's siltation.     

POLICY AND PRACTICE: Planning and the European union water framework directive

This paper is concerned with stimulating debate amongst land-use planning practitioners and researchers in relation to the possible consequences of the European Union Water Framework Directive. The potentially far-reaching ramifications for the Town and Country Planning system in England and Wales are examined in detail, presenting the case that planning, at all spatial scales, may have to give both water and environmental concerns greater consideration than has hitherto been the case. Furthermore, in the imminent future the planning system will need to begin the process of formulating policies in line with the aspirations of the Directive.     

Multi-criteria analysis via the VIKOR method for prioritizing land-use restraint strategies in the Tseng-Wen reservoir watershed

It is important to adopt proper water and soil conservation and land-use planning in a watershed for lowering adverse impacts on reservoir water quality. Although reservoir watersheds occupy a large amount of land in Taiwan, high population density has exerted development pressures on such land. Therefore, the priority ranking of land-use restrictions for the subdivisions with different degrees of environmental vulnerability is necessary in watershed management. Since there are several criteria for evaluating the potential environmental impact from the subdivisions, multi-criteria analysis was applied as a technique for solving these problems in this study. The VIKOR method was applied to determine the best feasible solution according to the selected criteria, including geographical and meteorological factors. The objective of this study was to establish the priority ranking of land-use restrictions in the Tseng-Wen reservoir wastershed in southern Taiwan. The results show that subdivisions close to the outlet or reservoir area should have the priority of land-use restrictions.     

Water-smart growth planning: linking water and land in the arid urbanizing American West

Linking water and land is essential in planning for the future of the western United States. We propose the concept of ‘water-smart growth’ and explore its implications through incorporating water considerations into the SLEUTH land-use model. The urban growth trajectory in Cache County, Utah, is modeled from 2007 to 2030 under four different scenarios: current trend; smart growth; water-smart growth with moderate implementation; and water-smart growth with full implementation. Comparisons of simulation results illustrate the extent and ways in which water-smart growth would alter current established land-use growth patterns. The approach represents an initial step to better integrate land and water in urban growth modeling and planning. This study's purposes are to provide improved understanding and representation of linkages between water and land in urbanizing environments, offer insights from a set of modeled options, and demonstrate the significance of integrating land and water in planning practices.